Prabhu Pingali - BVSDE

Prabhu Pingali - BVSDE

852 million people are chronicallyundernourishedCountriesin transition28Developedmarketeconomies9Sub-SaharanAfrica204Near East andNorth Africa39Latin Americaand theCaribbean53Asia and thePacific519

Per caput food production hasincreased steadilyPer caput food productionIndex (1970 = 100)1801601401201008070 75 80 85 90 95 0004WorldDeveloping CountriesDeveloped Countries

MDG hunger goal does appearto be within reachPrevalence of undernourishment (%)25YearSub-Sah.AfricaN.Eastand N.AfricaS.AsiaE.AsiaLat.Amer.andCarib.201990-9235826161315Estimate2000-023310221110105MDGTarget2015237126601990-92 2000-02 2015MDG1841387Developing World

Progress towards the WFS target istoo slowNumber of undernourished (millions)1000800600400200MDGTargetWFSTargetYear1990-922000-022015Sub-Sah.Africa168204205N.Eastand N.Africa253937S.Asia289301195E.Asia275217135Lat.Amer.andCarib.59534001980-82 1995-97 2000-02 2015WFS841214413730Developing World

Lesson 1: Agricultural growth plays acritical role in enhancing food securityand reducing poverty% undernourishedDeveloping34% or more20 to 34%5 to 19%2.5 to 4%less than 2.5%0 5 10 15 20 25 30Ag GDP / Total GDP

Lesson 2: Hunger reduction is aprerequisite for fast development andpoverty reductionPoverty and undernourishment% of the population livingwith< 1 US$/day (1995-2000)Poverty and undernourishment: trends

Lesson 4: Trade can lead to substantialreductions in hunger and povertyIntegration in agricultural trade and undernourishmentLess than 2.5%2.5 to 4%5 to 19%20 to 34%35% or more0 10 20 30 40 50 60Agricultural imports and exports as a share of agricultural GDP (%)

Lesson 5: Public investment fails toreflect the importance of agriculture% population undernourishedLess than 2.5%2.5 to 4%5 to 19%20 to 34%1990-92 average1996-98 (or mostrecent period forwhich data areavailable)35% or more0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5Agricultural orientation index

Governance and Food Security

The changing world andpersistent policy challenges• Urbanization and the transformation of foodmarkets• Changing patterns of trade in food• Resource use and resource degradation• Harnessing science and technology fordevelopment

Designing a coherent agenda forhunger and poverty reduction• Focus on the hotspots• Focus on the long term while responding toimmediate needs• Enhance productivity of smallholderagriculture• Seek complementarities between trade anddomestic policy• Increase effectiveness of OfficialDevelopment Assistance

Designing a coherent agenda forhunger and poverty reduction• Ensure complementarities of publicresources, domestic and international• Create en environment conductive toprivate investment• Make PRSPs more inclusive in addressingfood security and rural development• Combine poverty reduction with increasedprovision of global public goods

Why Hunger not in the politicalagenda ?• associate hunger with emergencies,conflict and natural calamities• ample global availability of food, combinedwith declining food prices• economic model emphasizing growth andpoverty reduction• health and education services as the pillarsof anti-poverty programmes

Why Hunger not high in thepolitical agenda ?• poor record of past agricultural andintegrated rural development programmes• weak scientific evidence to be used foradvocacy• weak political voice of hungry ( ruralpopulations in general)• decentralization creates institutionalvacuum on responsibilities.• PRSPs hijacked by central ministries

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