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evaluating the economic impacts resulting from Climate change

evaluating the economic impacts resulting from Climate change

12-11-09LOSS OF ASSET

12-11-09LOSS OF ASSET VALUE AND INCREASE/DECREASE IN MAINTENANCE COSTS Potentially the greatest impact on NB/NS TC will be the flooding of roads,railways, and transit systems because of rising sea levels and surgesbrought on by more intense storms. In the context of the loss of asset value,there is a 17% probability of losing transportation infrastructure every yeardue to climate change.In this study, unit costs associated with the rebuilding or rehabilitation ofroads are mostly associated with TCH2 and Route 106. This is due toimportance and size of the unit costs of these roads, data availability, andtheir greater vulnerability to climate change impacts in comparison to otherroutes in this region. It appears to be that while Routes 16, 935 and 940have unit costs that are significantly smaller than those of TCH2 and Route106, they would not be affected by moderate flooding and only small portionsof these routes would be affected by extreme flooding according to theexisting climate change scenarios. Therefore, in this study it was decided toneglect these costs.Assumptions:LOSS OF ASSET VALUE: TCH2 - Minimum time for flooding to subside is 4 hours;- Average time for flooding to subside is 2 weeks;- Maximum time for flooding to subside is 2 months;- Three outcomes are equally likely;- Costs, associated with the third scenario = $50,938,285.95- Costs, associated with first and second scenarios = $2,158,384.69- 17% probability of losing transportation infrastructure every year due toclimate changeCalculations:0.17×[0.67×$2.158 + 0.33×$50.938] = $3.103 million/year4

12-11-09LOSS OF ASSET VALUE: ROUTE 106 Assumptions:- If Route 106 is affected by flooding, only re-pavement will be requiredwith expected construction costs of $652,656.40- 17% probability of losing transportation infrastructure every year dueto climate changeCalculations:0.17×$0.653 = $0.111 million/yearAssumptions:LOSS OF ASSET VALUE: CN LINE - Length of CN line = 15.25 km- Asset value = $690,752.59/km- 17% probability of losing transportation infrastructure every year due toclimate changeCalculations:0.17×$0.691/km×15.25km = $1.791 millionTotal loss of asset value = $3.103 + $0.111 + $1.791 = $5.005 mln/year5

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