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Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental PolicyLecture Plan• May 11: Overview– International aspects• Background• The Road to Kyoto and Beyond• Recent topics• May 18: Energy and EnvironmentalPolicies– Japan, US, etc.• May 25: Challenge towards Deep GHGReductionGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Questions/Comments andAnswers1M. Akai; AIST2M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Questions/Comments - 5Questions/Comments - 5'• What is the implication on worldeconomics if Russia ratify KyotoProtocol and USA stay out?• Some analysis using economic modelindicate:–With paradigm change (technology,economic structure, etc.)Japan & EU ; US–Without paradigm changeJapan ; EU & US• What will happen if developingcountries become the major CO 2releasing countries?3M. Akai; AIST4M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 20045Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by RegionWorld Energy Outlook 2002 (IEA)Gt-CO2/year454035302520151050WorldOECDDeveloping CountriesTransition Economics70%1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030YearM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 20046Findings - World Energy Outlook 2002• Fossil fuels will continue to dominate theworld’s energy mix over the next decades.– Hence, even under the international climatepolicies, emissions of GHGs from the energysector are expected to continue growing,reaching 38 billion tones-CO 2by 2030.• Emissions will shift from the industrializedcountries to the developing world.– The developing countries’ share of globalemissions will jump from 34% now to 47% in2030, while the OECD’s share will drop from55% to 43%.M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Indication - World Energy Outlook 2002Pessimistic with regard to the Kyoto target• Emissions in those OECD countries that signed theProtocol (including US) will reach 12.5 billion tonesin 2010: 2.8 billion tones ( 29% above the target)• Russia, like Central and Eastern Europe, is in a verydifferent situation, with projected emissionsconsiderably lower than its commitments.– Under the Protocol, “emissions credits” can be sold tocountries with emissions over their target. But this will notsuffice to compensate for over-target emissions in othercountries.• Net emissions will be about 15% above targets in2010. If US, which does not intend to ratify theKyoto Protocol, is excluded, the gap falls to 2%.Global Environmental Policy 2004IPCC SRES Scenario7M. Akai; AIST8M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Questions/Comments - 6Questions/Comments - 7• Is it possible to achieve the GHGemission reduction;– To achieve Kyoto target?• Short term target (2008-2012)• Legally binding commitment, but ...– To a level to prevent “dangerousinterference” with the climate system?• Longer term target - needs deepreduction• As Japanese government is unable tomeet the target of the reduction of CO 2on a per capita basis, what is thegovernment's step to meet this target?Achievement of Kyoto Target• When Japan cannot achieve Kyototarget, how will it be punished?Compliance issue common toall parties9M. Akai; AIST10M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Action Program to Arrest Global WarmingIn Reality…• The emissions of CO 2 should be stabilized ona per capita basis in the year 2000 andbeyond at about the same level as in 199000/90 = +7.2%Compliance Issue• Efforts should also be made to stabilize thetotal amount of CO 2 emission in the year2000 and beyond at about the same level asin 199000/90 = +10.2%11M. Akai; AIST12M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 200413Kyoto Protocol - Article 18The Conference of the Parties serving as themeeting of the Parties to this Protocol shall, atits first session, approve appropriate andeffective procedures and mechanisms todetermine and to address cases of noncompliancewith the provisions of thisProtocol, including through the developmentof an indicative list of consequences, takinginto account the cause, type, degree andfrequency of non-compliance. Any proceduresand mechanisms under this Article entailingbinding consequences shall be adopted bymeans of an amendment to this Protocol.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200414Negotiations onNon-Compliance Issue (1/4)• At COP 4 (Buenos Aires, November 1998),Parties established a joint working group(JWG) on compliance to develop acompliance system under the Protocol, witha view to adopting a decision on this issueat COP 6 (The Hague, November 2000). The"Buenos Aires Plan of Action" adopted atCOP 4 called for work on, among otherthings, the preparations for COP/MOP 1,including the elements of the Protocolrelated to compliance.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Negotiations onNon-Compliance Issue (2/4)• At COP 6 in The Hague, however, Partieswere unable to reach agreement on thepackage of decisions under the Buenos AiresPlan of Action. In the case of compliance,key outstanding issues included what theconsequences of non-compliance should beand the membership of the ComplianceCommittee. As with other issues, thenegotiating texts on compliance wereforwarded to a resumed session of COP 6 forfurther consideration.Global Environmental Policy 2004Negotiations onNon-Compliance Issue (3/4)• At COP 6 part II, Parties adopted the BonnAgreements on the Implementation of theBuenos Aires Plan of Action, registeringpolitical agreement on key issues, includingon compliance. Parties also continued workat COP 6 part II on procedures andmechanisms relating to compliance, basedon the Bonn Agreements. Althoughconsiderable progress was made,outstanding points remained and the draftdecision was forwarded to COP 7 (Marrakesh,October/November 2001) for furtherelaboration, completion and adoption.15M. Akai; AIST16M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200417Negotiations onNon-Compliance Issue (4/4)• At COP 7 (Marrakesh ), Parties adopted adecision on the compliance regime for theKyoto Protocol, which is among the mostcomprehensive and rigorous in theinternational arena. It makes up the "teeth"of the Kyoto Protocol, facilitating, promotingand enforcing adherence to the Protocol’scommitments.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200418Marrakesh Accords (1/2)• In the case of compliance with emission targets,Annex I Parties are granted 100 days after theexpert review of their final annual emissionsinventory has finished to make up any shortfall incompliance (e.g. by acquiring AAUs, CERs, ERUs orRMUs through emissions trading). If, at the end ofthis period, a Party’s emissions are still greaterthan its assigned amount, it must make up thedifference in the second commitment period, plus apenalty of 30%. It will also be barred from "selling"under emissions trading and, within three months,it must develop a compliance action plan detailingthe action it will take to make sure that its target ismet in the next commitment period.M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Marrakesh Accords (2/2)• Any Party not complying with reportingrequirements must develop a similar plan andParties that are found not to meet the criteria forparticipating in the mechanisms will have theireligibility withdrawn. In all cases, the EnforcementBranch will make a public declaration that the Partyis in non-compliance and will also make public theconsequences to be applied.Global Environmental Policy 2004Decision in COP 7Procedures and mechanisms relating to compliance under the KyotoProtocol• The Conference of the Parties,– Noting that it is the prerogative of the Conference of theParties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the KyotoProtocol to decide on the legal form of the procedures andmechanisms relating to compliance,• Decides to adopt the text containing the proceduresand mechanisms relating to compliance under theKyoto Protocol annexed hereto;• Recommends that the Conference of the Partiesserving as meeting of the Parties to the KyotoProtocol, at its first session, adopt the proceduresand mechanisms relating to compliance annexedhereto in terms of Article 18 of the Kyoto Protocol.19M. Akai; AIST20M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Questions/Comments - 8Question/Comment - 8• Researchers and politicians realize:– Kyoto mechanism does not work well after all.– Japanese people take a great interest in environmentalproblems. However, when Japan will not achieve CO 2emission reduction, this is because many people considereconomic activities are more important than environmentalissues. This trend will continue in future.YES• Why they didn't make a strict rule forreduction of CO 2 emission at Kyoto?Always difficult in internationalnegotiations involving variousstakeholders21M. Akai; AIST22• There are a lot of programs in GlobalWarming Research Initiative, but theyseem not to be known to people.• The government should announcetheir programs more to make peoplethink more about the environment.YES, strategic public outreach isnecessaryM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200423R&D Policy on Global Warming inJapan (FY2002)• In September 2001, the Council forScience and Technology Policyestablished "Promotion Strategy inPrioritized Area based on the Scienceand Technology Basic Plan"Global Warming Research InitiativeAbove programs will be conducted in an integrated manner with the cooperation of Ministries.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200424Global Warming Research Initiative• The Initiative includes the followingprograms (FY 2002: 219.6 billion yen)– Global warming monitoring program– Global warming prediction and climatefluctuation research program– Global warming effects and risk evaluationprogram– GHG fixation (sequestration) and utilizationprogram– Global warming prevention policy researchprogram– New & renewable energy and energyconservation technology development programsM. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004UK Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation60% CO 2 Reduction in 2050 (limited Energy Efficiency)Global Environmental Policy 2004UK Roadmap forCarbon Capture and Sequestration31M. Akai; AIST32M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004UK Strategy TrajectoriesCanada33M. Akai; AIST34M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004The Canadian ContextCanada's Kyoto Challenge• Canadian energy policy is framed within thecontext of Sustainable Development• Sustainable development – pursuit of abalanced portfolio of environmental,economic and social goals• For energy, sustainable development aims to:– Reduce energy use, intensity (and carbon content),emissions• A major driver is climate change• CO 2 capture and storage is the naturalevolution of leading Canadian initiatives inAGI and EOR in place since the 1980’s35M. Akai; AIST36M. Akai; AIST

Approval sheetPACKAGINGTape specifications (unit :mm)Series No. A B W F EWK25S 6.90±0.20 3.60±0.20WK20S 5.50±0.20 3.100±0.2012.00±0.30 5.50±0.05 1.75±0.10WK10S 3.50±0.20 2.85±0.20 8.00±0.30 3.50±0.05 1.75±0.10WK12S 3.60±0.20 2.00±0.15WK08S 2.50±0.20 1.65±0.158.00±0.20 3.50±0.05 1.75±0.10Series No. P1 P0 ΦD TWK25SWK20S1.1±0.15WK10S + 0.14.00±0.10 4.00±0.10 Φ1.50− 0. 01.0±0.20WK12S Max. 1.0WK08SReel dimensionsMax. 1.0Reel / Tape A B C D7” reel for 8mm tape 9+1.0/0Φ180.0+0/-1.5 Φ60.0+1/0 13.0±0.27” reel for 12mm tape13+1.0/0Taping quantity-1206 0805 Chip resistors 5,000 pcs paper tape per reel.-1210, 2010, 2512 Chip resistors 4,000 pcs plastic tape per reel.Page 7 of 7 ASC_WKxxS_V02 Apr.- 2012

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004President’s Key Policy Addresses:United States• June 11, 2001– Committed U.S. to Work Within UN Framework– Directed U.S.G. to Develop Flexible, Science-BasedResponse– Supported UNFCCC to Stabilize GHG Concentrations– Established National Climate Change Technology Initiative– Established Climate Change Research Initiative• February 14, 2002– Reaffirmed Long-Term UNFCCC Central Goal– Established U.S Goal to Reduce GHG Intensity by 18% by2012– Encouraged Business Challenges and Voluntary Reporting– Directed Improvements to the EPACT Emissions Registry– Supported Transferable Credits– Valued GHG Avoidances by Supporting Financial Incentives43M. Akai; AIST44M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Climate Change – The Rolefor DOE and New TechnologyGlobal CO 2 Emissions (GTC/y)302520151050ReducedEmissions1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090YearReferenceEmissionsGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Technology Pathways#1: Closing the Loop on Carbon– Introduction of Carbon Sequestration andHydrogen Technologies Augment the StandardSuite of Energy Technologies#2: Renewables and Nuclear Succeed– Major Technological Advances in Renewable andHydrogen Technologies are Coupled with a NewGeneration of Nuclear Reactors#3: Beyond the Standard Suite– Dramatic Breakthroughs in “New and AdvancedTechnologies – e.g., Fusion, Bio-X” – Create aFundamentally Changed Energy System45M. Akai; AIST46M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200447Current Climate Change TechnologyR&D Initiatives• FreedomCAR• FreedomFuel– Hydrogen Technology– Nuclear-Based Hydrogen Initiative– Large-Scale Hydrogen Production From Fossil Fuels• Fuel Cell Systems• Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships• Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum• Nuclear Power Generation IV• Nuclear Power 2010• International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(ITER)• National Climate Change Technology InitiativeCompetitive Solicitation ProgramM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200448Carbon SequestrationLeadership Forum• CSLF is an international climate changeinitiative that is focused on development ofimproved cost-effective technologies for theseparation and capture of CO 2• The purpose is to make these technologiesbroadly available internationally; and toidentify and address wider issues relating tocarbon capture and storage.• This could include promoting the appropriatetechnical, political, and regulatoryenvironments for the development of suchtechnology.M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004International Partnership for theHydrogen Economy (IPHE)Purposes:• To serve as a mechanism to organize andimplement effective, efficient, and focusedinternational research, development,demonstration and commercial utilizationactivities related to hydrogen and fuel celltechnologies.• To provide a forum for advancing policies,and common codes and standards that canaccelerate the cost -effective transition to aglobal hydrogen economy to enhance energysecurity and environmental protection.49 M. Akai; AIST 50M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Effect of Kyoto ProtocolIt’s just an entrance to a sustainable societyTowards a Deep ReductionEmissions (Gt-C/yr)252015105IS92aKyoto01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year51M. Akai; AIST52(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200453CO 2 Stabilization ProfilesEmissionGt-C/yr20. Atmospheric Emissions -350 Ceiling450 Ceiling550 Ceiling650 Ceiling750 Ceilingis92aBattelle Memorial Institute-5.01990 2040 2090 2140 2190 2240 2290M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200454Technological Options forDeep Reduction of GHG Emissions• Improvement of energy efficiency• Switching to lower carbon fuels, e.g.coal to natural gas• Use of non carbon fuels, e.g.renewables, nuclear• Enhancement of natural sinks for CO 2 ,e.g. forestry• Capture and sequestration of CO 2 .• Importance of Technology AssessmentM. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Hydrogen Fuel Cell VehiclesZero Net Emission BuildingsNuclear Power Generation IV55The TechnologyChallengeStabilizing Greenhouse GasConcentrations in the AtmosphereCarbon (CO 2) SequestrationRenewables:Photovoltaics and WindBio-Fuels and PowerVision 21: Zero-EmissionPower Plant55M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200456Possible Technology Areas• Transforming Energy Supply– Hydrogen– Renewable Energy and Distributed Energy Resources– Nuclear Energy– Fossil Power Generation (ZEPP)– Infrastructure of the Electricity Delivery System (EnergyStorage)• Transforming Energy End-Use– Transportation; Buildings; Industry• Capturing and Sequestering GHGs– Geological; Ocean; and Terrestrial Sequestration• Reducing non-CO 2Greenhouse Gas Emissions• Measuring and Monitoring GHG Emissions– Measurement, Monitoring and VerificationM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Structure ofthe International Energy AgencyGoverning Board57Discussion in IEA/CERTM. Akai; AIST58SLTStanding Group onLong-Term CooperationExperts GrouponR+D PrioritySetting andEvaluationCERTCommittee on EnergyResearch andTechnologyFFWPREWPEUWPFPWPICEMSOMStanding Group onOil MarketGHG R&DProgrammeHydrogenSEQStanding Group onEmergencyQuestions1487CNMCCommittee onNon-MemberCountries59Implementing AgreementsM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200459Technology BookENERGY TECHNOLOGY:CONFRONTING THE CLIMATECHALLENGEM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200460SECTION I LONG-TERM VISIONS,NEAR-TERM CHOICES1. The Challenge– Climate Change and Energy– Energy Technology: A Weapon in the Arsenal2. Envisioning a Low-emissions Future: WhichTechnologies Matter?– A Technology Portfolio– Different Pathways, Same Destination– Robust, Enabling and Bridging Technologies– The Question of Timing3. Energy Technology Policy: An Essential Element– Factors Working Against Rapid Technology Development– Factors Working Against Rapid Technology Uptake– Implications for Policy and TimingM. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004SECTION II TRANSFORMING THE ENERGYSYSTEM: TECHNOLOGIES FORDRAMATICALLY-REDUCED EMISSIONS4. Introduction: Transforming the Energy System5. Transforming Energy Supply– Hydrogen– Fuel Cells– Renewable Energy– Nuclear Fission Energy; Fusion Energy– Improved Fossil Power Generation– Integrated Energy Systems– Fossil Energy Resources– Electricity System Infrastructure6. Transforming Energy Use– Transport; Buildings and Services; Industry7. Separating, Capturing and Storing CO 28. Reducing Non-CO 2Greenhouse Gas Emissions61M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200462Transition of Hydrogen Technology- Current Technology -• Production– Hydrogen is produced in large centralisedfacilities, primarily by the reforming of naturalgas. High-purity hydrogen is produced for on-siteuse by water electrolysis.• Use– Hydrogen is used primarily as a chemical toproduce industrial commodities, such asreformulated gasoline, ammonia for fertiliser andfood products. A limited number of hydrogen fuelcells are also used for grid backup and forpremium power applications. Hydrogen is alsoused in the U.S. Space ProgramM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Transition of Hydrogen Technology- 2000-2030 -• Production– Hydrogen is produced primarily by steam reforming ofnatural gas, either at central or distributed facilities.Advanced reforming technologies present an opportunity todecrease the amount of GHG emissions to the atmosphere –the byproductfrom the reforming process could be collectedand sequestered. Hydrogen from renewables-poweredelectrolysis will constitute a growing renewable componentof the hydrogen production market.• Use– Hydrogen provides the fuel for fuel cell powered vehiclefleets at a central fuelling station. Hydrogen is added tonatural gas-powered internal combustion engines toincrease performance and decrease pollution. Restructuringof the electric utility industry presents opportunities fordistributed power, where hydrogen-powered fuel cells63provide on-site CHP.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200464Transition of Hydrogen Technology- 2030-2050 -• Production– Strong hydrogen markets and a growing hydrogeninfrastructure launch opportunities for renewable hydrogensystems. Energy sources such as wind turbines orphotovoltaics, for example, provide the necessary power toproduce hydrogen from water. This era witnesses theemergence of alternative hydrogen technologies thatproduce hydrogen directly from water and sunlight.• Use– Hydrogen plays a large role in heating homes and offices,powering appliances and electronics, and fuelling public andprivate vehicles. Fuel cells use this hydrogen to power ourclean transportation system and provide electricity, heatingand cooling to our buildings.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Transition of Hydrogen Technology- 2050-2100 -• Production– Water replaces fossil fuels as the primaryresource for the energy sector. Petroleumis used only as a chemical feedstock.• Use– Hydrogen offers a universal fuel form toprovide the clean mobility and energyservices for the world.Global Environmental Policy 2004SECTION III SCIENCE: ESSENTIAL TOPROGRESS Linking Basic Research andApplied R&DSECTION IV FROM THE LABORATORY TOTHE REAL WORLDSECTION V PULLING IT ALLTOGETHER: SUMMING UP AND TAKINGACTION65M. Akai; AIST66M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004IPCC SRES ScenarioScenario Analysis67M. Akai; AIST68M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200469Description on Hydrogenin IPCC SRES & TAR (1/2)• Innovative transitional strategies of usingnatural gas as a “bridge” towards a carbonfreehydrogen economy (including CO 2sequestration) are at a premium in apossible future world with low emissions(MESSAGE-MACRO AIM, MARIA, and MiniCAM teams)• The future electricity sector is notdominated by any single dominanttechnology, however, hydrogen fuel cellsare assumed to be the most promisingtechnology among all stabilization cases(MESSAGE-MACRO, IMAGE, and MiniCAM teams)M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200470Description on Hydrogenin IPCC SRES & TAR (2/2)• Biomass-derived fuels and hydrogenproduction from fossil fuels with carbonsequestration technology, in parallel withimproved fuel efficiency conversion, aresome of the few more promisingalternatives for reducing significantlycarbon emissions in the transport sector forthe next two decades.• The fuel economy of hydrogen fuel cellvehicles is projected to be 75% to 250%greater than that of conventional gasolineinternal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles,depending on the drive cycleM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Comparison of Hydrogen Production CostScenario StudyGlobal Energy Network ModelH2 Production fromcarbon containingfuel and CO2capture and storage71IEA Hydrogen Co-ordination Group HCG 2003.6M. Akai; AIST72M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 200473Appraisal ofCO 2 Mitigation TechnologyApproach• Evaluation as a technology– Process evaluation for energy penalty and cost– Life cycle aspects of the technology• Comparative evaluation of the technologyamong a resource and technology mix underCO 2 emission constraint– Energy Model• Decision making– Cost-benefit relationship– Externality, etc.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200474Global Energy Network Model• Term: 1990 to 2100• Area: Global– 18 world regions considering future energydemand, energy supply potential, geographicalcondition, etc.• Energy technologies include:– Conventional energy technologies (production,transportation, power generation, etc.)– Hydrogen energy system– Global renewable energy transportationsystems.– CO 2mitigation technologies such as captureand sequestration• Methodology: Optimization by LPM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Primary Energy Supply- 550ppm Stabilization -Global Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Emission in Base Scenario IPCC IS92dSecondary Energy Demand: IS92aCO2 Emission and SequestrationMTOE/year45000400003500030000250002000015000100005000BiomassWindSolarGeothermalHydroNuclearOrimulsionNatural GasOilCoalGt-C/year2520151050-5-101990200020102020203020402050year20602070208020902100Emission to AirSequestration02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 210075M. Akai; AIST76M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004550ppm Stabilization andCO 2 SequestrationGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Gt-C/year2520151050CO2 Emission and SequestrationEmission to AirSequestrationCO 2 Capture andSequestrationTechnologies-5-10199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100year77M. Akai; AIST78M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 200479CO 2 Capture and Sequestration (Storage)- Status -• Fossil fuels can be part of the energy mix• Capture and storage of CO 2 enables deepreductions in emissions• Cost ($40-60/tCO 2 avoided) is nogreater than large-scale application ofother deep reduction measures• It is not expected that all fossil reserveswill be exploited• This is a transition strategy to a differentenergy system – it is a means of gainingtimeM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200480CO 2 Capture and Sequestration- Aspects to be considered -• CO 2 Capture• CO 2 Transmission• CO 2 Sequestration– Geological– Ocean• CO 2 Utilisation• Terrestrial sequestrationM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004• 3 optionsCO 2 Capture– Post-combustion capture– Pre-combustion decarbonisation– Oxyfuel combustionGlobal Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Capture• Post-combustion capture– Chemical solvent scrubbingFluegasesN 2 , H 2 O to atmosphereCO 2SeparationCO 2CompressionStorageFossil fuelcombustionPowerGeneration81M. Akai; AIST82M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Capture• Pre-combustion decarbonisation– Physical solvent scrubbingH 2 from Fossil Fuel• CO 2 capture and sequestrationtowards hydrogen economyCoalGasifierAir SeparationUnitShiftReactorCO 2CO 2SeparationH 2GT CCStorageNG,CoalSteamReformerShiftReactorCO 2Separation H 2O 2 N2M. Akai; AISTCompressionCO 2Storage83M. Akai; AIST84

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 CaptureCO 2 Capture85• OxyfuelFossil fuelcombustionO 2Air SeparationUnitCO 2or H 2OPowerGenerationSeparationCO 2StorageM. Akai; AIST86• Costs comparable with other deepreduction options– All 3 approaches would capture CO 2 atcosts of $30-50/t -CO 2 avoided in largescale application– To reduce costs further will needradical changes in approach e.g. gasturbine with CO 2 as working fluid– Novel ideas needed to re-optimise theprocess of generating power withoutrelease of CO 2M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Transmission• Established technology– Areas for improvement• Limited– Action being taken• Industry assembling performance data on highpressure behaviour of captured CO 2Global Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Sequestration- Options -• Geological– Depleted oil and gas fields– Unminable coal measures– Deep saline reservoirs• Deep ocean• Cost typically $10/t-CO 2– In some cases may generateoffsetting income87M. Akai; AIST88M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Concept of CO 2 sequestrationIs there sufficient capacity?• PNNL Simulation results:– Total amount of CO 2 to be captured(1990 – 2095)• Coal-based scenario: 1230 Gt CO 2– Estimated reservoir capacities:• Deep saline reservoirs: 400 - 10000 Gt CO 2• Disused oil and gas fields: 920 Gt CO 2• Unminable coal measures: >15 Gt CO 2• Deep ocean: 4000 Gt CO 2BattelleMemorial InstitutePacific Northwest National Laboratory89M. Akai; AIST90M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 200491CO 2 Sequestration (Storage)• All options should be considered• Areas for improvement– Demonstrate CO 2 can be stored safelyand securely– Verify amount stored (monitoring)– Environmental impact – demonstrateminimal leakage and other possibleimpacts– Build confidence with public and NGOsM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200492CO 2 Capture and Sequestration• CO 2 capture technologies exist– Commercial CO 2 capture technology,though expensive, exists today.• Means must be developed to isolatethis CO 2 from the atmosphere– The ability to sequester large quantities ofCO 2 is uncertain• Deep ocean is one of a few possibleCO 2 sequestration options, so it isimportant that we understand as muchas possible about this option.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004• OptionsTerrestrial sequestration– Afforestation, reforestation and land usechanges– Popular– Allowed in Kyoto protocol– Significant potential in near term– Issue: security of storage– Warning: quoted costs often not on basiscomparable with capture/storageGlobal Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Utilisation• Enhanced recovery of hydrocarbons– Established use– Result = storage of CO 2• Chemical fixation– More CO 2 released than stored– Quantities not material to solving problem• Biological fixation– Vast areas of land required– Radical improvements needed in biology93M. Akai; AIST94M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Major Research ProgrammesR&D onCO 2 Sequestration• US DOE Carbon Sequestration Programme• EC Fifth Framework Programme• Canada• Japan• The Netherlands• Norway - Klimatek Programme• Australia - GEODISC Project• Total Projected Expenditure - $60-70 million• CO2 Capture Project - $28 million95M. Akai; AIST96M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 200497Goal of the Research Programmes• Studies to develop detailed scientificunderstanding of the technology• Demonstration projects• Help to build confidence in thetechnology• Key ways to gain public acceptance– Technology Demonstration– Effective communication of results– Workshops & DialogueM. Akai; AIST98Geological Sequestration ProjectsAquifer Injection ProjectsSleipnerBuffer ProjectNetherlandsExisting CommercialProjects 32 Acid GasInjection Projects70 CO 2-EOR ProjectsRITE OffshoreInjection ProjectBaltiRaman Project(Turkey)Oil & Gas Field ProjectsPilot StudyWeyburn CO 2Liaohe (China)Monitoring ProjectGEOSEQLost HillsPilotProjectSandia National Lab.CO 2 Injection ProjectCO 2 -ECBMAlberta Projects Enhanced GasRecovery ProjectBurlington ResourcesSan Juan BasinJohn Gale, IEA Greenhouse R&D ProgrammeBP InSalah Gas InjectionProject (Algeria)RECOPOL Project(Poland)BP Tiffany Project(N 2 & CO 2)M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Sleipner ProjectThe Utsira Formation• First commercial scale demonstrationof CO 2 capture and storage• Project commenced in 1996• 1 million tonnes of CO 2 injected peryear• Deep saline aquifer under the NorthSea• Statoil are the project operatorsBritish WatersGREATBRITAINNorwegian WatersNORWAYDENMARKDanish WatersStatistics– Area - 2.6X10 4 km 2– Depth - 550 to 1500m– Two depositionalcentres– Slopes south to north– Uncemented sand– Shale stringers– Porosity 30-40%– Volume - 5.5X10 11 m 399M. Akai; AIST100Courtesy of Geological Survey of Denmark and GreenlandM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Sleipner CO 2 StorageGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Utsira Cross Section101Courtesy of StatoilM. Akai; AIST102Courtesy of British Geological Survey & Schlumberger Geco-PraklaM. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004SACS Project in SleipnerGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Seismic Survey of Utsira•Saline Aquifer CO 2 Storage (SACS)– EC supported R&D project led by Statoil– Project launched after joint IEAGHG/Statoil workshop in November 1997– Project is monitoring the injected CO 2 inthe Utsira Formation– Consortium of energy companies• BP, ExxonMobil, Norsk Hydro, TotalFinaElf andVattenfall– Consortium of research groups• BGS, BRGM, GEUS, IFP, TNO and SintefCourtesy of Statoil103M. Akai; AIST104M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Weyburn CO 2 Injection Project• Site - Southern Saskatchewan, Canada• Oilfield operated by PanCanadian since 1954• Conventional and water flood enhancedrecovery• Estimated recovery of oil reserves - 35%• CO 2 injection commenced in September2000• Estimated to recover additional 10-15% ofOIP• Extend field life by 25 yearsGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Weyburn CO 2 PipelineReginaWeyburnSaskatchewanMontanaEstevanBeulahManitobaCanadaUSANorth DakotaBismarck•325 km Pipeline– North DakotaGasification Plant, USA– Completed -September 2000– 5,000 t/d of CO 2– 40% of total capacity– Gas Composition• 97% CO 2• 1% H 2 SCourtesy of Dakota Gasification.105M. Akai; AIST106M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004CO 2 Enhanced Oil RecoveryWeyburnCO 2InjectionRecycled CO 2ProductionWellCO 2OIL107M. Akai; AIST108M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004WeyburnWeyburn CO 2 Monitoring Project• Project established in September 1999• Monitor CO 2 storage in the Weyburn oil field• Managed by Petroleum TechnologyResearch Centre• International multi-partner researchprogramme• Funding:– Canadian Federal & Provincial Governments,– US DOE & European Commission– Industrial sponsors109M. Akai; AIST110M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004111METI’s ProjectGeological Sequestration of CO 2• FY2000 - FY2004• Objectives:– Accumulation of the data to assure thesafety of underground storage of CO 2through a small-scale field injection testand laboratory experiments.– Study on the social and economic aspectsof the technology.• Small-scale liquid CO 2 injection testwill be conducted at an onshoregas/oil field until 2004.M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004112METI’s ProjectStudy on Environmental Assessment ofCO 2 Ocean Sequestration• FY1997 - 2001 (Phase-1)• FY2002 - 2006 (Phase-2)• Goal: Development of a generic assessmentmodel for describing and predicting CO 2behavior from a discharge point to theambient open sea and the resultingbiological impact.– to provide necessary information to formulateinternational understanding/agreement on thetechnologyM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004113Relevance of CO 2 Capture andSequestration• CO 2 capture and sequestration mighthave a important role in deepreduction of GHG emissions allowingcontinuous use of fossil fuels for thetime being.– Technological "surprise" needed to not torely on sequestration technologies• However, there still remains the issuesapart from their associated risk andenvironmental impact…M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004114Recent TopicsTechnology intoPolitical ArenaM. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Recognition on CarbonSequestration in the Political Arena• Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocolacknowledges the importance of R&Don the technologies• Description in IPCC TAR (3pages)• Recommendation by Marrakesh Accordin COP-7 for IPCC to prepare atechnical report on (geological)sequestration technologyGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol1. Each Party included in Annex I, in achieving itsquantified emission limitation and reductioncommitments under Article 3, in order to promotesustainable development, shall:(a) Implement and/or further elaborate policies andmeasures in accordance with its nationalcircumstances, such as:……(iv) Research on, and promotion, development andincreased use of, new and renewable forms ofenergy, of carbon dioxide sequestration technologiesand of advanced and innovative environmentallysound technologies.115M. Akai; AIST116M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Marrakesh AccordOrganizational Structure of IPCC• Invites the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, in cooperation with otherrelevant organizations, to prepare atechnical paper on geological carbonstorage technologies, covering currentinformation, and report on it for theconsideration of the Conference of theParties serving as the meeting of the Partiesto the Kyoto Protocol at its second session;WMO / UNEPIPCC ChairIPCC BureauWorking Group IScienceTSU: UKWG Iassesses the scientific aspects of theclimate system and climate change.WG IIassesses the vulnerability of socioeconomicand natural systems to climatechange, negative and positiveconsequences of climate change, andoptions for adapting to it.WG IIIassesses options for limitinggreenhouse gas emissions and otherwisemitigating climate change.TFIresponsible for the IPCC NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories ProgrammeWorking Group IIImpact andAdaptationTSU: USAWorking Group IMitigationTSU: NetherlandsTask Force onNational GHGInventoriesTSU: Japan117M. Akai; AIST118M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 200411920th IPCC Plenary Meeting(Feb. 2003, Paris)• Decision– IPCC Plenary has decided to prepare aSpecial Report on Carbon Dioxide Captureand Storage as proposed by the ScopingPaper developed in experts’ workshop.• Issues to be addressed:– Participation of developing countries• To invite authors• To include a section on technology transfer– Permanence, environmental impacts andsafety of storageM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004120Related DecisionREVISION OF THE "REVISED 1996 IPCCINVENTORY GUIDELINES“COVERAGE AND METHODOLOGYDEVELOPMENT include:• Following completion of the SR onCarbon capture and storage this issuewill need to be considered in theRevised 2006 Guidelines.M. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004121Proposed Structure of Special Report1. Introduction2. Sources3. Capture4. Transport5. Geological storage6. Ocean storage7. Re-use and other storage options8. Total costs and market potential9. Implications for emission inventories andaccounting10.Critical Gaps in knowledgeM. Akai; AIST122Schedule• 2003.2: Decision by IPCC Plenary• 2003.3: Selection of authors (CLA, LARE, etc.)• 2003.7.2-4: 1st LA meeting (Oslo)• 2003.12: 2nd LA meeting• 2003.05?: Release of FOD• 2004.08: 3rd LA meeting• 2005.04: 4th LA meeting• 2005.09?: Release of Special ReportM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004Significance of IPCC Special Report• The First IPCC assessment reportaddressing a specific technology– To be reflected in Revised 1996 InventoryGuideline– To be reflected in AR4Related Research• Potential impacts on negotiationprocess under UNFCCC123M. Akai; AIST124M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Global Environmental Policy 2004A Research Project on Accounting Rules onCO 2 Sequestration forNational GHG Inventories(ARCS)125ARCSProject Duration: FY02-FY04Contact:Makoto Akai ( Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology(AIST)M. Akai; AIST126ARCS ProjectBackground• Although there is a growing interestCO 2 capture and sequestrationtechnologies, there is nointernationally agreement on the rulefor account sequestered amount ofCO 2 to be reflected in NationalGreenhouse Gas Emission InventoriesM. Akai; AIST

Global Environmental Policy 2004127National GHG Inventories andKyoto ProtocolEmissionAccountingKyoto ProtocolMandateAnnual InventoryNational CommunicationCreditERUCERRMUAAU IPCC Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas InventoriesRevised1996 IPCC Guidelines forNational Greenhouse Gas InventoriesGood practice Guidance (TSU, 2000)Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF (TSU, 2003)Decision by COP/MOPERUNational RegistryAAU94%of1990*5(yrs)IPCC Special Report on LULUCFIPCC Special Report on CCSM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004128Scope of ARCS project• To develop models to assess effectiveness ofstorage and conduct case studies for variousCO 2 injection scenarios• To propose guideline and/or protocol foraccounting sequestered CO 2 into GHGemission inventories through “thoughtexperiment” using developed models• To assess socio-economic and policyimplications of the technology throughenergy modeling and evaluation of businessopportunitiesM. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Cost-Benefit and Externality StudyExamples• Willingness to pay for human healthrisk reductions• Relationship between riskcharacteristics and preferences onmortality risk reduction (WTP)• Externality of hydrogen energy system• Public’s perception on CO 2sequestration technologiesGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Public's Perception onCO 2 Capture and StoragePurpose• To assess potential acceptability ofpublic on CCS.• To find factors which influence publicacceptance on CCS.• To obtain information to make aeffective public outreach plan.129M. Akai; AIST130M. Akai; AISTGlobal Environmental Policy 2004Questions?Send e-mail to:m.akai@aist.go.jp131M. Akai; AIST

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