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Our Coast-Our Future: Modeling SanFrancisco Bay Flooding with the CoastalStorm Modeling System (CoSMoS)Patrick Barnard, Li Erikson,Andrea O’Neill and Amy FoxgroverUSGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program, Santa Cruz, CA


Bay-wide Vulnerability Efforts• NOAA SLR Viewer (1 st Order- ‘screeningtool’)–Passive model, hydrological connectivity–Tides only (MHHW)–Excellent elevation data, datum control–Wetland migration model, socioeconomic impacts• Knowles (2 nd Order)–GCM-forced water levels at Golden Gate–Hydrodynamic modeling–100-year flood events–Flooding extent based on bath-tub model–No wind, waves–Levees ignored• Our Coast-Our Future (3 rd Order)–GCM ensemble forcing–Includes wind, waves, sediment transport, fluvialdischarge, and vertical land movement rates–Range of SLR and storm scenarios–Flooding extent explicitly modeled, includingleveeshttp://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/slrviewercascade.wr.usgs.gov/data/Task2b-SFBay/inundmap_data/googleearth/SFBay_SLR_100yr_nowetlands.kmzhttp://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/


Identifying Future Risk with CoSMoS1. Global forcing using thelatest climate models2. Drives globaland regionalwave models3. Scaled down tolocal hazardsprojections


Components of Total Water Level Predictionsswash zonebreaker zoneH decreases rapidly due to breakingwaves increase in height towardsbreaking zone (shoaling)wave run-upwave set-upstorm surgeseasonal effectstide differencesea level riseh Rh wvh ssh seh tideh slr2 m +1.7 m1.0 m0.3 m2 m2 md brH brMSL (datum)(adapted from Frisby and Goldberg, 1981)Bolinas LagoonBathtub model (SLR + MHHW)Physics included (SLR + Extreme Event)


• Limited set of scenariosCoSMoS Version 1.0- SoCal– January 2010 hindcast– January 2010 hindcast + 50 and 100 yr SLR per CA guidelines


Marina Del Rey/Venice


CoSMoS Version 2.0- NorCal• Collaboration with NOAA, PRBOConservation Science and NPS- Our Coast-Our Future (OCOF)• Focus on climate change impacts to outercoast and SF Bay (NERR)• Sophisticated product tool with emphasis onecological impacts• Storm scenarios developed using latestIPCC (2013) radiative forcing scenarios andGCMs• Flood flows and Bay hydrodynamicsmodeled, incl. depth of flow and uncertainty• Key in-bay considerations: fluvial discharge,downscaled winds, marsh accretion, relativeland movementSubsidence in San Jose (1933-1969)


Online Tool- Flooding Extenthttp://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/


Online Tool- Flooding Uncertaintyhttp://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/


• Flooding based on seamless, 2 mDigital Elevation Model• Vertical land motion and marshaccretion incorporated• Projected delta discharge• In-bay wind waves generatedfrom downscaled GCMs• Ocean swell penetration• Robust flooding uncertaintydetermined, part of the productsuiteSF Bay Highlights


Scenario Summary• January 2010 and March 2011 stormhindcasts- testing and validation• Global wave modeling: 2 emissionsscenarios, 4 Global Climate Models• Max water level conditions = daily,annual, 20 and 100-year return intervalevents• SLR scenarios = 0 to 2 m in 25 cmincrements, and 5 m extreme scenario• Total of 40 future scenarios of SLR andstorm conditions


CoSMoS - The Path Forward• SF Bay completion in Summer 2014• New Southern California project proposed for 2013-2015• Available as a real-time warning system for emergency managers,lifeline operators, and resource managers• Internal project at USGS drives ongoing research and developmentof this modeling systemFor more information, contact Patrick Barnard:pbarnard@usgs.govhttp://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/coastal_processes/socalhazardshttp://data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/

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