Presentation - Contingency Planning Association of the Carolinas ...

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Presentation - Contingency Planning Association of the Carolinas ...

A Systems Based AnalysisCharlotte, NC UptownEvacuation PlanUniversity of North Carolina at CharlotteEngineering Management Graduate ProgramSystems Engineering ProcessingMark Cecil Mscecil@uncc.eduRick Hudson rhudson@uncc.eduBlaise Mwanda bmwanda@uncc.eduduPaolo Zambrano pxzambrano@uncc.edusgteng@uncc.eduAdvisor: Dr. S. Gary Teng sgteng@uncc.eduDirector, Engineering Management Graduate Program


AgendaIntroductionProject ScopeSystems Engineering OverviewCurrent Evacuation Plan Pros & ConsEvacuation ModelingModeling Disaster ScenariosRecommendationsImplementationFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano2


IntroductionUptown Charlotte is the most populatedurban area between Washington, DC andAtlanta, GA2 nd largest finance district in the US. Home tocorporate offices of Bank of America andWachoviaCharlotte plan surfaced from 9/11 and theblackouts of 2003. A weakness revealed inthe disaster relief & recovery fieldnationwideFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano3


Project ScopeAnalyze existing emergency evacuationplan in accordance with principles ofsystems engineeringEvaluate current working populationin uptown Charlotte during regularbusiness hoursDevelop an updated model usingArcView to provide more specificdirections for common disastersFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano4


Systems Engineering ApproachAddress total system from a life-cycleperspectiveDefine a hierarchical set of interrelatedcomponents or subsystemsIdentify tools and resourcesCombine management and engineering principlesto produce a well-defined outcomeConsider the overall system hierarchy andinteractionsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano5


Systems Engineering Approach Life-cycle Perspective Identification of need Conceptual Design Preliminary Design Detail Design Implementation Maintenance and Support DisposalFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano6


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering Process Identification of Need The ongoing threat due to naturaldisasters, industrial accidents,Terrorist activity The Potential cost of an event in theCharlotte uptown area Conceptual Design Most Important Stage in Design CATS Tabletop Exercise 2003 Local Homeland security Council Actions undertaken by other citiesFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano7


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering ProcessFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano8


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering ProcessFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano9


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering ProcessPreliminary Design Identify Higher Level Agencies/Actors Identify Higher Level Tasks Identify High Level Physical Componentsand SystemsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano11


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering Process High Level Agencies Identified inPreliminary Design Phase Police (Lead) Fire Medic Corporate Stakeholders CATS Public and Private Schools Medical Facilities Special Needs Population ResidentialFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano12


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering ProcessHigh Level Tasks Identified in PreliminaryDesign Phase Recognition of limitations in planning forurban evacuations Need for multiple layers of plans Need to keep umbrella approach simple foreffective applicationHigh Level Systems Identified in PreliminaryDesign Phase Command and Control Communications Traffic Control TransportationFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano13


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering Process Detail Design Identify and Specify lower levelAgencies/Actors Identify Lower Level Tasks Identify lower level componentsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano14


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering Process Lower Level Roles for Agencies Police (Emergency Operations Center) DOT CATS Schools Day Care CentersFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano15


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering Process Lower Level Components (Subsystems) Communications Secure Communications (Radio) Reverse 911 Local/Regional Media Outlets Cellular System Transportation Management Traffic Control Systems-Four Modes(Heavy Inbound, Heavy Outbound, Normal,Evacuation)Fall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano16


Current Evacuation Plan ( III )Pedestrian EvacuationFor Immediate Threat, primary Mode of egress is on footCMPD estimates 90 minute evacuation timeEvacuees must walk to transit hubs to await transfer byCATS buses to Assembly PointsCATS network would suspend operations and “fold in”assets to the city centerInstructions direct drivers to off load existingpassengers and proceed to a designated point in theUptown area.CATS busses have instructions on-board in sealedcontainersIndividuals must secure their own transportation fromAssembly PointsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano17


Emergency Evacuation as aSystems Engineering Process Lower Level Components(Subsystems) Transportation Management.Signs Designating RoutesFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano18


Current Evacuation PlanSource: http://www.charmeck.org/Departments/Police/About+Us/Departments/Center+City+Evacuation+Plan.htm#planFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano19


Functional Flow Block Diagram1 stst LevelSystem Based Assesment Charlotte UptownEmergency EvacuationUNCC -EMGT Term ProjectCustomer NeedsRequirementsUpdate ExistingEvacuation PlanDefine AreaProject Scope.PreliminaryDesign StageReview Literature& ExistingEvacuation PlanEvaluatePros and Consof current planContact mainbusinessesUptown CharlotteEvacuation Plan infoProfessionalResearch withpersonnel involvedIn evacuationRevise EvacuationPlan from other USmetropolitan areasDetail Design &DevelopmentObtain accuratedata on officepopulationdemographicsCharlotte uptownVolunteers, FirstResponders, FEMApersonnelavailabilityGIS SoftwareDataSuggestedEvacuationRoutesResidentialBusinesshoursComponentsCLT PhysicalStructure (i.e.buildings, roads,cars, etc)Law enforcement &subordinate actionagenciesPossibleproblems &solutionsProduction &ConstructionAttributesPersons involved inevacuationAverage speedevacuation traffic(10 mph)Amount of time tobegin evacuatingafter official orderRelationshipsHierarchy betweenaction agencies andpeople duringevacuationHuman factorissues (fear, panic,uncertainty)TestingSmall scale drillsWaiting for the BIGONE...Maintenance &SupportTraining to allagencies involved(i.e. Police, Fire)ContinuousUpdates orModificationDisposal &PhaseoutRetirement of thisEvacuation PlanUniversity of North Carolina at CharlotteThe William States College of EngineeringEngineering Management Graduate ProgramSystems Engineering Integration. Fall 2006Term Project: A Systems Based Asssesment of theCharlotte, NC Evacuation Plan ot the Uptown AreaEnclosed by the I-77/I-277 LoopTeam Members: Mark Cecil, Blaise Mwanda,Rick Hudson, Paolo ZambranoFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano20


Block Diagram. Second LevelCustomer NeedsRequirementsUpdate ExistingEvacuation PlanDefine AreaProject Scope.PreliminaryDesign StageReview Literature& ExistingEvacuation PlanEvaluatePros and Consof current planContact mainbusinessesUptown CharlotteEvacuation Plan infoProfessionalResearch withpersonnel involvedIn evacuationRevise EvacuationPlan from other USmetropolitan areasTo Detail DesignStageFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano21


Block Diagram. Second LevelDetail Design &DevelopmentObtain accuratedata on officepopulationdemographicsCharlotte uptownVolunteers, FirstResponders, FEMApersonnelavailabilityGIS SoftwareTo Production/ConstructionStageProduction &ConstructionComponentsAttributesRelationshipsCLT PhysicalStructure (i.e.buildings, roads,cars, etc)Law enforcement &subordinate actionagenciesPersons involved inevacuationAverage speedevacuation traffic(10 mph)Hierarchy betweenaction agencies andpeople duringevacuationHuman factorissues (fear, panic,uncertainty)Fall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano22


Block Diagram. Second LevelTestingMaintenance &SupportDisposal &PhaseoutSmall scale drillsWaiting for the BIGONE...Training to allagencies involved(i.e. Police, Fire)ContinuousUpdates orModificationRetirement of thisEvacuation PlanFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano23


Current Evacuation Plan ( II )Advantages Offers vehicular andpedestrian evacuation Easy to follow trafficsignals for vehicularevacuation Only emergency vehicleswill be allowed onincoming lanes All intersections will befour-way stop sign Emergency Personnelproperly trainedDisadvantages Does not have arelationship betweenemergency scenarios andevacuation Lack of EmergencyManagement tools tocontrol general panic Depends on publictransportation reliabilityto evacuate pedestrians No emergency shelter inuptown Needs updateFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano24


Proposed Evacuation PlanDevelop an updated Evacuation Emergency Planfor Uptown Charlotte for following eventsNatural disasters such as severe hurricanes,thunderstorms, floods, earthquakes, etcNon-Natural Disaster such Terrorist activity(bombing), Chemical or Biological warfareFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano25


Modeling DisastersGeographic Information Systems (GIS) make itpossible to model the affects of disasterscenariosGIS aids in relief efforts by showing whichareas are affected the worstArmy High Performance Research Center hasdeveloped a model using CFD of bioterrorismFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano26


Modeling Disasters ( II )GIS OverviewGIS models population databased upon the 2000 CensusGIS can suggest steps ofaction to take with theproper inputs (specifics to adisaster)Allows to predict anevacuation route from anypoint within the city/modelEvaluates number ofaffected people aroundemergency areaFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano27


Modeling Disasters ( III )Scenario 1: Biological QuarantineArcview / GIS tells us how many peopleare affected in any radiusQuarantine teams evaluate cleanup andtreatment of the area.Fall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano28


Modeling Disasters ( III )Population ZonesQuarantine BOA PlazaFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano29


Population DistributionEstimated population Available data covers50% of the population Population densityMap will help allocateResources to the heavierregionsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano30


Modeling Disasters ( IV )AdvantagesMaintains advantagesfrom original evacuationplanUsing GIS software willfacilitate periodicallyupdate of workingpopulationOffers relationshipbetween emergency andevacuation planProposes shelters inuptown areaDisadvantages Complete uptownpopulation data notavailable. Assumptionswere made forpopulations zones Has not been testedFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano31


Findings & RecommendationsMore coordination between public plan andthose instituted by private stakeholdersCertification of plans by an ISO-like body?Assess the need for an uptown shelter (s)Implementation of modeling and predictivetechnologies in planning and real-timemanagement effortsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano32


Findings & RecommendationsMore emphasis on maintenance ofInstitutional Knowledge Establish periodic Tabletop Exercises Build and maintain relationships amongkey stakeholders across the public andprivate sectorsMore attention for preparedness andoperations at Assembly Locations Inclement weather Special Needs Persons Transport of PeopleRecognition of the growing reliance on thecellular system Investigate measures to harden the systemFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano33


QuestionsFall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano34


ReferencesArcView Brochures. Desktop GIS forMapping, Data Integration, and Analysis.Accessed September 2006 from URL:http://www.esri.com/library/brochures/pdfs/arcview91.pdfBOOTS, Barry, Atsuyuki Okabe, andRichard Thomas, “ModelingGeographical Systems: Statistical andComputational Applications,”Netherlands: Kluwer AcademicPublishers, 2002.BROOME, J. Wayne, Director ofEmergency Management, Charlotte FireDepartment, Interview, 25 September2006. Charlotte, North CarolinaCharlotte-MecklenburgEvacuationPlan, Charlotte-Mecklenburg PoliceDepartment, Accessed on Sept 2006.Available from URL:www.charmeck.org/Departments/Police/About+Us/Departments/Center+City+Evacuation+Plan.htm#thingsCity of Cleveland Downtown EmergencyEvacuation plan, Accessed on Sept2006, from URL:www.city.cleveland.oh.us/emergency/downtownemergencyevacuationplan/ DEGELMANN, Thor, “Evacuation “Plansstart with a checklist,” HR Briefing(10801847), 2/15/2002 Issue 3004, p2, 2pDRAGER, Harald, GUNNAR, Lovas,WIKLUND, Jo, SOMA, Helge, “Objective ofModeling Evacuation from Buildings duringAccidents: Some Path-Model Scenarios.”Modeling Evacuation from Buildings, 4.1:1993FAIRCHILD, Amy, COLGROVE, James, JONES,Marian, “The Challenge of MandatoryEvacuation: Providing For and DecidingFor,” Health Affairs 25, no. 4 (2006): 958-967; 10.1377/hithaff.25.4.958FEMA “Are You Ready? An In Depth Guide toCitizen Preparedness,” Washington, DC,2004FEMA “Preparing for Disaster,”Washington, DC, August 2004GEOGRAPHIC Information Systems, GIS andMapping Software, Retrieved September2006 from URL: www.esri.comMORAIN, Stan. “GIS Solutions in NaturalResource Management: Balancing theTechnical-Political Equation,” Santa Fe:Onward Press, 1999.Thilmany, Jean, “Harm’s Way” MechanicalEngineering 127.9 (2005): 22-24Fall 2006UNC-Charlotte. EMGT Graduate Program.R. Hudson, M. Cecil, B. Mwanda, P. Zambrano35

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