Electricity future in the EU - Eusustel.be

eusustel.be

Electricity future in the EU - Eusustel.be

DG Research FP-6PRIMES model analysisfor EUSUSTEL projectDecember 19, 2006 BrusselsICCS/NTUAProf. P. Capros


Overviewz PRIMES energy system model for each of theEU-30 countries, with inclusion of a detailedelectricity sectorz PRIMES performs economic-engineeringengineeringprojections of the energy system up to 2030 withdetailed analysis of both demand-side andsupply-side side and their interactions through explicitmarkets and pricesz For EUSUSTEL, PRIMES quantified three policyscenarios which are compared against abaseline projectionE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 2


Baseline scenario: assumptionsz Economic growth 2% pa in averagez Oil and gas prices higher than in the past,however increasing slowlyz Gas to coal competitiveness deterioratedz No climate change policy, except a weak ETSleading to 5 Euro / t of CO2z Continuation of support to renewablesz Nuclear phase out in some countries and noextension of life time of existing nuclear plantsz No special care about security of supplyz Technology evolves without any breakthroughE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 3


Baseline Scenario: UnsustainablezzThe baseline scenariofails in terms ofzzEnvironmental impactsfrom energy and mainlycarbon dioxide emissionsSecurity of supply asenergy dependence of theEU substantially increasesNevertheless, thebaseline scenariosucceeds relativelycompetitive prices despitehigh world energy prices450040003500300025002000CO2 Emissions from Energy System EU-25200538%Mt CO2Kyotopost KyotoBaseline1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030I mport Dependence in %203059%200579%203093%200553%203085%200549%203064%Solids Oil Gas TOTALE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 4


Power Sector under BaselinezzzzzzElectricity remains a growing market due tozzzIts high efficiency and comfort in final usesThe preference for multiple electric appliancesAs carrier of high technology in manufacturing and servicesStructure of power generation changes with increasingcontribution of renewables (wind) and CHPIn the medium to long term coal plants are mostcompetitive for base load – gas use still significantNuclear energy develops in few old but also in new MSDespite high fuel prices, electricity prices increases arerelatively smallThe power sector developments are incompatible with aclimate change mitigation strategyE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 5


EU-25: Baseline OutlookYear 20059 460 million people9 9,715 billion ¼ GDP9 1,744 Mtoe Gross Energy Needs9 Energy Intensity of GDP9 904 Mtoe Imported Energy9 3,177 TWh Electricity GenerationProspects to 20309 Stable9 2.0% per year9 0.3% per year9 -1.7% per year9 1.4% per year9 1.3% per year9 726 GW of Power Generation Capacity9 32 GW new Power Plants per year9 3,800 Mt of CO2 Emissions9 0.2% per yearE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 6


z Three GoalsAlternative Scenariosz Serious emissions cap on EU-25:-16% in 2030 frombase year 1990 (no carbon tax, just a cap)z Alleviate security of supply vulnerabilityz Obtain least cost effects on energy costs and pricesz Options as Changes from Baselinez Nuclear renaissance: no phase-out, extension of lifetime, new technologyz Carbon capture and storage technologyz Energy Taxes to reduce import dependenceE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 7


z Baselinez Scenario PKzzzzNames of ScenariosClimate change -16% in 2030 from 1990Nuclear constrained in some MS as in BaselineCCS available in the long termNo additional promotion of renewables andefficiencyz Scenario PKATzzzzzClimate change -16% in 2030 from 1990Nuclear not constrained except in few smallcountriesNo extension of lifetime of Nuclear plantsCCS as all future technologies availablePromotion of renewables and efficiency as inBaselinez Scenario LIDzzzzClimate change – Carbon values as in PKNuclear constrained as in PKTechnologies and their promotion as in PKEnergy Taxes on Fossil Fuels as necessary todecrease fossil fuel imports by 10% in 2030 ascompared with PKBaselinePost-KyotoPost-Kyoto and AllTechnologiesLimited ImportDependenceE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 8


Overview of Scenario performanceBaseline PK PKAT LIDAvg Electricity Prices in 2030¼0:K 94.0 97.1 92.7 107.7Avg Cost of Energy Services in 2030¼0:K 91.2 99.5 96.2 110.3CO2 Emissions in 2030Mt of CO2 3,991 3,179 3,172 3,040% change from 1990 6 - 16 - 16 - 20Import Dependence in 2030% 65.1 63.1 56.9 57.7% diff. from 2005 14.5 12.4 6.2 7.1Add. Gas Imports in 2030 from 2005Bcm per year 241 276 235 216Energy Taxes as % of import price 0 0 0 50%&DUERQ9DOXHLQ¼0W&2LQ - 51.5 31.5 51.5E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 9


Overview of scenario results2030 Baseline PK PKAT LI DNuclear I nvestment up to2030 ( GW)Nuclear Plants withExtension of life time ( GW)New Plants with CCSCapacity ( GW)Load factor of gross electriccapacities ( % )70.9 80.6 175.0 81.3- - - -- 56.8 7.3 40.645.4 41.6 43.8 40.9Share of Electricity ( % ) 24.2 24.8 24.8 25.3Gross I nl. Cons./ GDP( 2005= 100)Efficiency of thermalelectricity production ( % )CHP indicator ( % ofelectricity from CHP)Non fossil fuels in electricitygeneration ( % )66.0 63.3 66.9 62.247.5 49.8 48.2 48.924.4 24.7 24.5 24.846.3 55.0 67.1 57.2CO2 Emissions per MWh 0.32 0.17 0.15 0.18E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 10


Final Energy Demand by Sector (Mtoe(Mtoe)2,500Baseline2,500PKAT2,0002,000TertiaryTertiary1,500Residential1,500Residential1,000Transport1,000Transport500-IndustryEnergySystem2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030500-IndustryEnergySystem2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302,500PK2,500LID2,0002,0001,500TertiaryResidential1,500TertiaryResidential1,000Transport1,000Transport500-IndustryEnergySystem2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030500-IndustryEnergySystem2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 11


PRIMES Model – Electricity Sales4,4004,2004,000Gross Electricity (TWh), EU-25% pa2.502.00Annual Growth of Sales (EU-25)3,8003,6003,4003,200Baseline1.501.003,0000.502005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 LIDPKBaselinePKAT-2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2030-25Changes of Sales from Baseline (TWh)40200-20%26.024.022.0Shares of Electricity in Final EnergyLIDBaselinePKPKAT-40-6020102015202020252030PKPKATLID20.018.02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 12


Total Primary Energy Needs (Mtoe(Mtoe)2,0001,8001,6001,400BaselineRenewablesNuclear2,0001,8001,6001,400PKATRenewablesNuclear1,2001,000Gas1,2001,000Gas800600400Oil800600400Oil200-Solids1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030200-Solids1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-PKRenewablesNuclearGasOilSolids1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,000800600400200-LIDRenewablesNuclearGasOilSolids1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 13


PRIMES – Power Generation (TWh)5,0004,5004,0003,5003,000Baseline ScenarioRenewable energy5,0004,5004,0003,5003,000LIDRenewableenergy2,5002,0001,5001,000500-Gas and Oil FiredSolids firedNuclear energy2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302,5002,0001,5001,000500-Gas and OilFiredSolids firedNuclearenergy2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20305,0004,5004,0003,5003,000PKRenewableenergy5,0004,5004,0003,5003,000PKATRenewableenergy2,5002,0001,5001,000500-Gas and OilFiredSolids firedNuclearenergy2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302,5002,0001,5001,000500-Gas and OilFiredSolids firedNuclearenergy2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 14


PRIMES – Power Capacities (GW)1,2001,000800BaselineRenewable energy1,2001,000800PKATRenewableenergy600400Gas and Oil Fired600400Gas and OilFired200-Solids firedNuclear energy200-Solids firedNuclearenergy2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20301,4001,200PK1,4001,200LID1,000800Renewableenergy1,000800Renewableenergy600400Gas and OilFired600400Gas and OilFired200-Solids firedNuclear energy200-Solids firedNuclear energy2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 15


Power capacity expansion (GW)BaselineTotal; 243Total; 316Solar etc.; 4Hydro; 5Total; 352Solar etc.; 6Hydro; 4Biomass; 28PKATTotal; 253Total; 323Solar etc.; 9Hydro; 5Total; 370Solar etc.; 9Hydro; 4Biomass; 30Solar etc.; 2Hydro; 78635426013121Wind; 80Nuclear; 53Gas and Oil; 80Solar etc.; 254Hydro; 7871695 41Wind; 78Nuclear; 1291411672Coal; 102149 12014 23Gas and Oil;83Coal; 372000-2010 2010-2020 2020-20302000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030PKTotal; 253Solar etc.; 2Hydro; 78705147Total; 348Solar etc.; 9Hydro; 5588714144Total; 390Hydro; 3Solar etc.; 33Biomass; 38Wind; 90Nuclear; 61Gas and Oil;114LIDTotal; 252Solar etc.; 2Hydro; 78705145Total; 393Hydro; 5Solar etc.; 27649515135Total; 361Hydro; 4Solar etc.; 25Biomass; 40Wind; 84Nuclear; 61Gas and Oil;8714 31Coal; 521451Coal; 602000-2010 2010-2020 2020-20302000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 16


Fuel Consumption in PowerUse of Gas and Coal in Power Generation(Mtoe) PRIMES - EU25350300Gasinput300250Coalinput250200200PK150LIDPKAT150LID1005001990199520002005Baseline201020152020202520301005001990BaselineE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 17PKPKAT19952000200520102015202020252030


Power from Carbon free sourcesPower from Nuclear and Renewables(TWh) PRIMES - EU251800160014001200NuclearPowerPKAT1800160014001200RESPowerLIDPKPKAT1000800LIDPK100080060040020001990199520002005Baseline20102015202020252030600400200019901995Baseline2000200520102015202020252030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 18


Details about RenewablesPower from Renewables(TWh) PRIMES - EU2516001400120010008006004002000BaselineSolar etc.BiomassWindHydro2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203016001400120010008006004002000LIDSolar etc.BiomassWindHydro2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203016001400120010008006004002000PKSolar etc.BiomassWindHydro2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203016001400120010008006004002000PKATSolar etc.BiomassWindHydro2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 19


Indicators0.500.400.300.200.10Carbon Indicators for Power GenerationPRIMES - EU25Carbon Intensity of Power GenerationPKATBaseLID2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030PK60.058.056.054.052.050.048.046.044.042.040.0Share of Carbon Free PowerPKAT2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030LIDPKBase70.065.060.055.050.045.0Share of Gas Generation in Thermal PowerPKPKATLID25.020.015.010.0Percentage of CO2 CapturedPKLID40.035.0Base5.0PKAT30.02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300.02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 20


Emission Abatement1,6001,400Emissions from Power SectorMt CO2Baseline2,7002,600Emissions from Other SectorsMt CO2Baseline1,2002,500PKAT1,000PKLID2,400800600PKATPK2,300LID4002,2002002,100-1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302,0001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 21


PerformancePerformance Index (2005=100) in 2030Baseline; 95Total Cost per unitof Final EnergyPK; 106PKAT; 100LID; 118Baseline; 3,991CO2 Emissions (Mtof CO2)PK; 3,179PKAT; 3,172LID; 3,040IncrementalEnergy Imports(Mtoe)Baseline; 370PK; 280PKAT; 222LID; 159E3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 22


Concluding Remarksz The baseline scenario is clearly a nonsustainable future in terms ofenvironmental impacts (climate) andsecurity of supply (import dependence)z The baseline scenario may improve if thenuclear option was freed (no phase outand extension of lifetime) and if efficiencyand renewables policies proved moreeffectiveE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 23


Concluding Remarksz If climate policy was seriously binding (as -16%of CO2 emissions in 2030 from 1990) then theelectricity sector has a great role to playz Marginal abatement costs are lower in the powersector than in most end-use sectors (beyondcertain cheap energy efficiency measures)z This implies that the overall optimum implies thatelectricity keeps and even increase its share inthe demand-side but also it undertakes a heavyemission reduction program in the supply-sidesideE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 24


Concluding Remarksz Under climate constraints and with currentwisdom about technology potential the analysisclearly shows thatz a balanced portfolio approach in terms of resourcesand power generation technologies (like in PKATscenario) is economically superior than any case inwhich a certain option is excluded or constrainedz Under climate constraints, economic costsincrease, butz No single option is cost-effectivez Under portfolio of policies cost-effectiveness improvesE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 25


Concluding RemarkszzzzUnder climate constraints import dependence is reduced,as a result ofzzHigher energy efficiencyIncreasing domestic carbon-free resources, such as renewablesand nuclearStill the EU needs for gas imports seem to increaseunder climate constraintsThe LID scenario illustrates the imposition of energytaxes to reduce fossil fuel imports (on top of climatepolicies)zzzLID implies high prices and costs for the consumersLID allows for higher contribution of coal and CCSLID allows for higher renewablesA combination of PKAT and LID might be an interestingpathwayE3MLab ICCS/NTUA, 7 Nov. 2006 26

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