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Freelance Graphics - VBOT2008outlookc.PRZ - Vancouver Board of ...

B.C. Economic Outlook 2008:A Tale of Two Economies19th Annual Economic Outlook ForumVancouver Board of TradeHelmut PastrickChief EconomistCredit Union Central of British Columbia


Moderate overall growth in 2008B.C. Real Gross Domestic Product GrowthPercentage change6.05.04.54.03.02.03.62.33.73.33.02.81.00.002 03 04 05 06 07e 08fSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Large performance gap between domesticeconomy and trade sectorContribution to Percent Change in Real GDP, B.C.Percentage points86420Domestic DemandNet Exports-2-401 02 03 04 05 06 07e 08fSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Weak exports, consumer and governmentspending growth hold up, businessinvestment growth slows remains highB.C. Real Expenditure Growth by ComponentPercentage change15105020062007e2008f-5Consumption Residential ExportsInvestment GovernmentSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.ImportsE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Highest currency risk exposure inB.C. international exportsCommodity GroupLumber and wood productsWood pulp, paper, and paper productsMineral fuelsPrimary metal productsTransportation services and storageMachineryElectrical, electronic, and communications productsNote: Risk based on export intensity, import share, and profit margin.Source: CUCBC EconomicsE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Above average growth industries in 2008Industry 2006 2007e 2008fConstruction 9.8 12.5 7.0Mining (ex. oil & gas) -9.9 13.4 6.5Trade 7.5 6.8 5.1Note: Per cent change in real GDP at basic prices.Source: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Average growth industries in 2008Industry 2006 2007e 2008fOil & Gas extraction -1.1 -12.4 3.1Other services 3.8 3.5 3.1Transp. & Warehousing 4.6 3.0 2.9F.I.R.E.L* 1.6 3.8 2.9Government services 0.8 1.6 2.7Business & support 3.6 3.2 2.6Utilities -0.6 2.1 2.5Note: Per cent change in real GDP at basic prices. * Excludes owner occupied housingSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Below average growth industries in 2008Industry 2006 2007e 2008fAgriculture 0.0 1.8 2.2Health & social services 1.6 1.0 1.9Accomodation & food 4.8 2.6 1.8Educational services 2.2 1.1 1.7Other manufacturing* 6.5 0.4 -1.1Paper manufacturing -8.3 -0.3 -2.4Forestry & logging 2.5 -13.0 -2.5Wood manufacturing -0.3 -12.5 -6.6Note: Per cent change in real GDP at basic prices. * Excludes forestrySource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Tight labour market, low unemployment rateB.C. Labour MarketPer cent10864Unemployment RateEmployment GrowthLabor Force Growth2002 03 04 05 06 07e 08fSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Wider gap between labour costs andproductivity growthB.C. Labour Cost and ProductivityPercentage change642Hourly wage rateLabour productivity0-202 03 04 05 06 07e 08fSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Income rising at fast paceB.C. Personal Disposable Income GrowthPercentage change10864ActualRealReal per capita2002 03 04 05 06 07e 08fSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Flat profit growth in 2008 due to weakforest industryB.C. Corporate Profits Before TaxDollars - billions2421181512Percent change40302010Profits (L)% change (R)902 03 04 05 06 07e 08f0Source: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecastE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Inflation slightly higher in 2008, restrainedby declining goods pricesB.C. Consumer Price Index by Major ComponentPercent change321020062007e2008f-1-2TotalSemi-durablesServicesDurablesNon-durablesSource: Statistics Canada, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Population growth rising modestlyB.C. Net Migration by Type and Population Growth RatePersons - thous.80Per cent1.660402001.41.21.0International (L)Interprovincial (L)Pop. Growth (R)-2002 03 04 05 06 07e 08f0.8Source: Statistics Canada, CUCBC. e- estimate, f - forecastE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Higher housing prices, volumes downslightly in 2008B.C. Housing Market IndicatorsPercentage change3020100Average sales priceUnit salesHousing starts-10-2002 03 04 05 06 07e 08fSource: CREA, CUCBC estimate, forecast.E C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Forecast summaryModerate overall economic growth in 2008Wide performance gap between domestic andtrade sectorsHigh currency hits forestry hardestDomestic industries fare bestTight labour market continuesE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K


Forecast summaryHigh personal income growth, weak corporateprofit outlookOverall inflation slightly higher, domesticoriented services up mostPopulation growth rises modestlyNormal housing market adjustmentE C O N O M I C O U T L O O K

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