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Estimation of the Wheat Losses Caused by the Tropospheric Ozone ...

Estimation of the Wheat Losses Caused by the Tropospheric Ozone ...

Estimation of the Wheat Losses Caused by the Tropospheric Ozone

Estimation of the Wheat Losses Caused by theTropospheric Ozone in Bulgaria and DenmarkTzvetan Ostromsky 1 ,IvanDimov 1 , Ilia Tzvetanov 2 , and Zahari Zlatev 31 Central Laboratory for Parallel Processing, Bulgarian Academy of SciencesAcad. G. Bonchev str., bl. 25-A, 1113 Sofia, Bulgariaceco@cantor.bas.bgdimov@copern.bas.bghttp://copern.bas.bg2 Institute of Economics of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences3 Aksakov str., 1000 Sofia, Bulgariaineco@iki.bas.bg3 National Environmental Research Institute, Department of AtmosphericEnvironmentFrederiksborgvej 399 P. O. Box 358, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmarkzz@dmu.dkhttp://www.dmu.dk/AtmosphericEnvironmentAbstract. Long-term exposures to high ozone concentrations haveharmful effect on the crops and reduce the yield. The exposures aremeasured in terms of AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of40 ppb). The threshold of 40 ppb has been accepted after several yearsof experimental research in open top chambers throughout Europe. Asa result of these experiments a critical level of 3000 ppb.hours has beenestablished for the crops. The sensitivity of the wheat to exposures abovethe critical level has been studied in more detail and a linear dependencebetween the relative yield and the AOT40 has been found. This relationshipis used in the paper to estimate the wheat losses in Bulgaria andDenmark by regions in several consequtive years.The Danish Eulerian Model is used to calculate the AOT40 values on theEMEP grid (a 96×96 square grid with step 50 km., which covers Europe).The results on parts of this grid (covering Bulgaria and Denmark) areonly used. In addition regional information about the actual yield and theprices is also needed for the target years. The algorithm for economicalevaluation of the losses can be applied with different scenarios for partialreduction of the emissions and some other key parameters. The resultscan be used as a ground for a cost-benefit analysis of possible ozonereduction measures when effects on vegetation are studied.1 IntroductionThe damaging effects of high ozone concentrations on agricultural crops is knownfor a long time, but little was known until 1990 on the extent of these damagesworldwide. Extended research on this problem has been conducted duringL.Vulkov,J.Waśniewski, and P. Yalamov (Eds.): NAA 2000, LNCS 1988, pp. 636–643, 2001.c○ Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2001

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