obs-global-security-update-february-2015

Global Security ReportGlobal Security Report – Executive SummaryJanuary 1 – 31, 2015AfricaAcross the African continent, the threat of terrorism and kidnap is high, particularly in the Sahel region andsurrounding areas.In West Africa, the threat of kidnap and terrorism is high, especially in Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon. Thesecurity situation in northern Nigeria has continued to deteriorate, with Boko Haram surrounding Borno state capital,Maiduguri, and launching two attacks, both of which were repelled by the Nigerian military. Further attacks on thekey city are likely to occur as the militant group will likely attempt to gain control of the strategic city before thepresidential elections. Chad has deployed troops into neighboring Cameroon and is currently actively fighting BokoHaram militants in the region. General elections in Nigeria are due to take place on 14 February and then widely atstate level on 28 February. OBS advises all travellers to exercise caution and vigilance during the campaign periodand elections, particularly in areas where there are political or large public gatherings. Boko Haram militants may tryto target campaign groups. There are currently 22,057 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD and 8795deaths. A total of 816 confirmed health worker infections have been reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone;there have been 488 reported deaths. For the first time since the week ending 29 June 2014, the WHO has reportedfewer than 100 new confirmed cases reported in a week in the three most affected countries. In the week leadingup to 25 January 2015, a total of 99 confirmed cases were reported in three countries: 30 in Guinea; 4 in Liberia and65 in Sierra Leone. Over the past week, case incidence in Guinea has increased, with a total of 30 confirmed EVDcases, compared with 20 that were reported the week before. This is the first time this year that case incidence inGuinea has increased from week-to-week. During this reporting period, eight districts reported a confirmed orprobable case of EVD. The northern district of Mali, which is located near the border with Senegal, reported its firstconfirmed EVD case. The patient is a man who recently travelled from Liberia. Due to Senegal recently reopeningits border crossings with Guinea, surveillance in districts that border the affected countries are being implemented.In other regions of Guinea, the western district of Forecariah confirmed 15 new cases in the week leading up to 252

Global Security ReportAsia PacificThroughout the Asia Pacific Region, there remains a heightened threat of terrorism, piracy, kidnapping and politicalunrest. OBS advises against travelling to Afghanistan, Pakistan, central and western Mindanao in the Philippines,eastern Sabah in Malaysia, the Thai-Malaysia border area, Rakhine State and Kachin State in Myanmar and theIndian states of Jammu and Kashmir. A high degree of caution is also advised to travellers in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh,Nepal, where unresolved political differences have caused numerous outbreaks of violence; and China’s XinjiangUyghur Autonomous region, as a result of an ongoing conflict between police and the ethnic Muslim minority. Overthe past month, the overwhelming majority of terrorist attacks in the region have taken place in Afghanistan andPakistan, where a large number of terror groups remain highly active. Despite Pakistan’s attempts to crack down onterrorism after the Peshawar school attack, the threat of extremist violence in the area does not appear to havediminished. The Islamic State terror group has also shown an increased presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan overthe past month, with several high profile incidents drawing attention to tensions that exist between them and theAfghani and Pakistani Taliban. Conflict between these groups is to be expected over the coming months. InAfghanistan, Pakistan, India, Australia and the Philippines, large-scale protests organised by Muslim groups havetaken place against the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo’s depiction of the Prophet Mohammed. In travellingthrough the region, OBS advises that caution should be exercised at all times. Events such as piracy, terrorism,kidnapping are, by their very nature, unpredictable and may take place at any time of the day or night and may occurin a wide variety of locations. The security situation in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China, New Zealand andAustralia remains largely stable.EuropeThe security measures in Europe are increased due to several terrorist attacks that took place during December2014 and January 2015. France is on high alert after a series of deadly terrorist attacks by individuals that pledgedtheir alliance with Islamic State and Al-Qaeda. Germany and the United Kingdom are officially on high alertunderlining the increased danger of terror attacks. Netherlands and Belgium are on the second highest level of alert,having increased their security. Belgium’s increased security measures included night police raids succeeding inunveiling a terror group that planned to organise attacks against the police force. There is an increasing upheavalbetween the Jewish population in countries such as France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Sweden andDenmark after the deadly attack against the kosher grocery store in France. In Germany and Sweden there havebeen reported attacks against mosques and Muslim neighborhoods. Terrorist attacks are possible to be carried outboth by individuals or by groups. There is currently a low threat from terrorism in the following countries: Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, Hungary, Moldova, Czech Republic and Switzerland. There is currently generalthreat from terrorism in the following countries: Belarus, Slovakia, Finland, Romania, Austria, Norway, Luxembourg,Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Italy and Spain. The ceasefire in Ukraine has collapsed after five months. The fightingbetween the Ukrainian army and the pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine is fierce, with numerous casualties,both military and civilian. OBS advises against all travel to Crimea, Donetsk oblast and Lugansk Oblast; and all butessential travel towards Kharkiv oblast. Currently, events in Ukraine are fast moving and should be monitoredfrequently before any travel to the area. The Foreign and Commonwealth Office announced that all British nationalsin Crimea are advised to leave the area. The FCO will not be able to provide consular services to anyone choosingto remain in Crimea. OBS advises against all travel to Chechnya, Inigushetia and Dagestan and the districts ofBudyonnovsky, Levokumsky, Neftekumsky, Stepnovsky and Kursky in Stavropol Krai; and all but essential travel toNorth Ossetia, Karachai-Cherkessia and Kabardino-Balkaria. Norway confirmed the existence of a case of mad cowdisease but announced that it was an “atypical” case that posed no risk to public health.While the security situation across the Balkans has remained generally stable, there have been a series of protestsin Montenegro, Macedonia, and Kosovo. The violent protests in Kosovo, predominantly in the capital Pristina,followed a resurgence of civil and political unrest at the start of the month, generated by heightened ethnic tensions.Elsewhere, in Albania, a series of Car bomb attacks took place. An alleged crime boss, an Albanian emigrant, and agovernment official were targeted. The Car bomb attacks are believed to be in connection with criminal gangs, whichare most active in the costal cities of Durres and Vlora. The attacks are a worrying concern for Albanian authorities,as gang warfare continues, following over a dozen bomb attacks last year.This month religious and political leaders from across the Balkans joined other dignitaries from around the world inParis to march in solidarity against the attacks in France. In light of the increased terrorist threat in Western Europe,the European Union and the Balkans are working together to enhance cooperation in the fight against Islamicextremists. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are currently assessed as the Balkan countries most at risk of4

Global Security ReportIslamic extremism, in terms of the number of their citizen leaving to fight in the Middle East. There is currently ageneral threat from terrorism in the following countries: Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia andHerzegovina, Montenegro, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Bulgaria. Attacks could beindiscriminate and could occur in places that are frequented by foreign travelers and expatriates. The Balkancountries continue to intensify co-operation, law enforcement agencies, and judicial authorities, whilst takingadditional measures to combat organized crime and suppress terrorist threats, particularly those emanating fromIslamic State (IS).Latin AmericaThe security situation in Latin America remains quite stable. The on-going threat of kidnappings is still considered asbeing high mostly in countries like Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Honduras, Venezuela, Ecuador and El Salvador. Thereexist an increased tendency for short-term kidnappings across the region and especially in the capital and majorcities such as Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, Brazil; La Paz, Bolivia; Quito, Ecuador; Tegucigalpa and San PedroSula, Honduras; San Salvador, El Salvador; Mexico city and Guadalajara, Mexico; Buenos Aires, Argentina; andCaracas, Venezuela. The drug-related violence in Honduras and El Salvador is currently increasing due to anescalation of gang violence and especially concerning the fight over turfs between the Mara-Salvatrucha 13 and theBarrio 18. Population displacements as which occurred in the town of San Luis la Herradura in El Salvadorcharacterizes this worrying situation caused by the gang-war. The security situation in Colombia remains highly tensedespite improvements in security. Illegal armed groups and other criminal groups are heavily involved in the drugstrade and serious crime including kidnapping (for ransom and political purposes), money laundering and runningextortion and prostitution rackets. However, it is likely that some improvements will occur in the next month as peacetalks are due to restart on February 2 with the FARC rebels. The ELN also confirmed its strong intension to pacifythe situation and announced its desire to start peace talks with the Colombian government, as it had already beenthe case for the FARC rebels. In Mexico, recent protests have affected Mexico City and other parts of the country,such as the state of Guerrero where the 43 students disappeared last September. There is a continued possibility ofdemonstrations and illegal roadblocks have been reported more frequently, particularly in the state of Guerrero andMichoacán with mainly the issue of the self-defence groups. Most victims of crime and violence in Mexico areMexicans involved in criminal activity, but the security situation also poses important risks for foreigners. OBS advicesto stay alert to the existence of street crime as well as more serious violent crime like robbery, assault and vehiclehijacking in Mexico but also in countries like Colombia, San Salvador, Honduras, Brazil, Paraguay and Guatemala.The situation in Venezuela is currently intense due to important food shortages that the local population suffer fromsince the beginning of 2015. Venezuelans have to queue for hours and it often provokes clashes with police forces.Police and Military forces using teargas have stoped massive violent demonstrations over the past weeks. It is likelythat the security situation in Venezuela will not get better until President Maduro does not propose a concrete solutionto this issue. On a global scale, there is a general terrorist threat in countries like: Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Paraguay,Argentina and Colombia. There is a low threat from terrorism on countries such as: Peru, Honduras, El Salvador,Nicaragua, Uruguay, Guatemala, Mexico, Guyana, Uruguay, Bolivia and Costa Rica.Middle EastSecurity risk in the Middle East remains extremely high due to ongoing political polarization in many countries andthe increasing threat of terrorism. There is an extremely high risk of terrorism in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Egypt’sSinai Peninsula. Of all deaths reported from terrorist attacks in the Middle East in 2014, the majority have occurredin Iraq and Syria and terrorism was dominated by two groups: ISIL of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and al Qaeda. In allcases, terror attacks can be indiscriminate, and can occur in crowded places, at high-profile events (particularlyevents involving government officials), and in places that are frequented by foreigners. Over the past year, the MiddleEast has experienced a considerable increase in the number of kidnappings, in part due to the ongoing conflicts,which have enabled criminal organizations and terrorist groups to operate with relative ease. Foreigners and localsworking for international organizations and companies in the Middle East are at a particularly high risk of kidnapping.Over the past six months, the targeting and kidnapping of foreign journalists and aid workers has reached an alarmingrate, particularly in Syria. Militant groups have used kidnapping as a fundraising technique and as a means topublicize. There is also a high threat of crime including theft, robbery, violent or sexual assault across the region.In Egypt, Sinai-based terrorist group Ansar Beit al Maqdis (ABM) and Ajnad Misr have conducted numerousoperations targeting Egyptian security forces. In November 2014, ABM pledged allegiance to ISIL of Iraq and theLevant (ISIL) and changed their name to Islamic State in the Sinai. The group conducted simultaneous targetedbombings in the Sinai Peninsula on the anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution on 25 January. As Egypt approaches5

Global Security Reportparliamentary elections in March, it is likely that the militant groups operating in the Sinai as well as Nile Valley Egyptwill continue to target security and government forces and high-profile buildings. Though Ajnad Misr, whichpredominantly operates in Cairo, has stated that they do not intend to target civilians, many of their activities haveimpacted civilian locales and have caused casualties and injuries among civilian populations.In Syria, al Qaeda affiliate al Nusra Front has been battling with forces loyal to the Syrian President, Bashar al Assad,and also battling ISIL. The ongoing civil war in Syria has seen millions of refugees and displaced peoples. Attacksamong the groups are a daily occurrence. The terrorist group ISIL has taken over large swaths of land across Iraqand Syria, equivalent in size to Great Britain. ISIL is extremely anti-West and seeks to build a caliphate spanningfrom Iraq to the Mediterranean.In light of unfolding events, Yemen’s security outlook is increasingly volatile. The rebel Houthi movement has takende facto control of the government as President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his entire government abruptlystepped down on 23 January. The current situation creates concerns in the realms of diplomacy, terrorism, and theseparatist movement in the southern part of the country. The power vacuum in Yemen may create an opening for alQaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. AQAP has been targeted by Yemeni security forces and US drone strikes, as wellas by Houthi tribes, who have successfully driven them out of key strongholds in recent months. Under suchpressures, AQAP is believed to be reverting to its pre-2011 model of utilizing smaller cells and dispersed operatives.While they still maintain that they seek to target the West and its interests, the group has focused predominantly onconducting targeted assassinations of Houthis, and officials within the Yemeni government and military. In additionto AQAP, there are unconfirmed reports that Islamic State in Iraq and Syria may be actively recruiting in Yemen.According to a Yemeni official, ISIS may have a presence in at least three provinces in southern and central Yemen.In Libya, talks between the two rival governments have stalled. The country has been cleaved between theinternationally recognized Tobruk-led government, the Tripoli-based opposition government, and extremist militantgroups based predominantly in Benghazi. In the absence of a diplomatic solution, the security situation in Libya islikely to further deteriorate in 2015. The Tobruk-led Libyan National Army (LNA) has engaged in heavy clashes withthe Tripoli-supporting militia coalition Fajr Libya. Neither government appears likely to succeed in making significantstrategic gains, or to defeat the other militarily. The LNA is increasingly conducting airstrikes against Fajr Libya.Those strikes are likely target critical civilian infrastructure, particularly in Misrata and Tripoli. Air and seaports arealready approved targets for airstrikes. Air and sea ports controlled by the LNA, particularly Benghazi and Labraq,will be highly vulnerable to asymmetric tactics including IEDs and Grad-type rockets. On the coast, fighting for controlof oil infrastructure is likely to center on Libya's major oil terminals in the Gulf of Sirte. There is a likelihood thatinfrastructure and assets will be purposefully destroyed if captured by an opposing force. Fighting is also highly likelyto remain intense in areas where government forces are combatting extremist fighters, particularly in Benghazi andDerna. The cities that are most at risk of intense violent clashes include Zintan, Misrata, Derna, Tobruk, Benghaziand, Tripoli.North AmericaThis month the United States has announced a renewed friendship between the U.S. and India, following PresidentObama’s state visit to India. The relationship marks an important milestone, as it will enhance defense cooperationbetween the U.S. and India. Furthermore, it will also support stronger military-to-military engagement, includingdeeper maritime cooperation and increased opportunities in technology and trade between the two countries.Elsewhere in the U.S., the U.S. Department of Defense has announced that December 2014’s detainee transfersfrom Guantanamo Bay prison will continue this year. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security retains its warningon a heightened alert for terror attacks. The elevated threat alert level continues to indicate that there is a significantrisk of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. The warning also applies to U.S. travelers and expatriates abroad.Canadian officials have confirmed that a Canadian national has tested positive for the H7N9 Avian flu virus, in thefirst case of the infection in a human in North America. According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, the woman,who is in her 50s, had recently returned from China. The woman is now recovering from the avian flu virus in isolation.This month, Canada has continued its efforts to fight Islamic State by dropping bombs on ISIS targets in Iraq. Thegeneral threat from terrorism across Canada remains this month. There has been a noticeable focus on security inCanadian legislation, as terrorism remains in the foreground of the security challenges facing Canada. Terroristattacks could be indiscriminate and can occur in places that are frequented by tourists. OBS continues to advise alltravelers to Canada and the United States to exercise normal safety precautions.6

Global Security ReportGlobal Security Update – IndexAfrica ........................................................................................................ 12North Africa .................................................................................................................................. 12Algeria ................................................................................................................................................. 12Egypt .................................................................................................................................................... 14Libya .................................................................................................................................................... 24Morocco & Western Sahara ................................................................................................................ 30Sudan ................................................................................................................................................... 33Tunisia ................................................................................................................................................. 35West Africa ................................................................................................................................... 38Benin ................................................................................................................................................... 38Burkina Faso ........................................................................................................................................ 39Gambia ................................................................................................................................................ 40Ghana .................................................................................................................................................. 44Guinea ................................................................................................................................................. 44Guinea-Bissau ...................................................................................................................................... 47Ivory Coast ........................................................................................................................................... 47Liberia .................................................................................................................................................. 47Mali ...................................................................................................................................................... 49Mauritania ........................................................................................................................................... 53Niger .................................................................................................................................................... 54Nigeria ................................................................................................................................................. 57Sahel Region ........................................................................................................................................ 71Senegal ................................................................................................................................................ 72Sierra Leone ........................................................................................................................................ 73Togo ..................................................................................................................................................... 74Central Africa ................................................................................................................................ 75Angola ................................................................................................................................................. 75Cameroon ............................................................................................................................................ 75Central African Republic (CAR)............................................................................................................ 78Chad .................................................................................................................................................... 81Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).................................................................................................. 837

Global Security ReportEquatorial Guinea ................................................................................................................................ 91Gabon .................................................................................................................................................. 92Republic of Congo ............................................................................................................................... 92Sao Tome and Principe ........................................................................................................................ 93East Africa ..................................................................................................................................... 93Burundi ................................................................................................................................................ 93Djibouti ................................................................................................................................................ 94Eritrea .................................................................................................................................................. 94Ethiopia ............................................................................................................................................... 94Kenya ................................................................................................................................................... 95Madagascar ......................................................................................................................................... 95Malawi ................................................................................................................................................. 97Mauritius ............................................................................................................................................. 97Mozambique ....................................................................................................................................... 97Rwanda ................................................................................................................................................ 98Somalia ................................................................................................................................................ 98South Sudan ...................................................................................................................................... 103Tanzania ............................................................................................................................................ 104Uganda .............................................................................................................................................. 105Zambia ............................................................................................................................................... 107Zimbabwe .......................................................................................................................................... 109South Africa ................................................................................................................................ 110Lesotho .............................................................................................................................................. 110Namibia ............................................................................................................................................. 110South Africa ....................................................................................................................................... 110Swaziland ........................................................................................................................................... 111Asia Pacific .............................................................................................. 112Eastern Asia ................................................................................................................................ 112China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region ............................................................................. 112North Korea ....................................................................................................................................... 113Japan ................................................................................................................................................. 114South Korea ....................................................................................................................................... 115Southern Asia ............................................................................................................................. 115Afghanistan ....................................................................................................................................... 1158

Global Security ReportPanama .............................................................................................................................................. 164South America ............................................................................................................................ 164Argentina ........................................................................................................................................... 164Bolivia ................................................................................................................................................ 165Brazil .................................................................................................................................................. 166Chile ................................................................................................................................................... 167Colombia ........................................................................................................................................... 167Ecuador ............................................................................................................................................. 170Guyana .............................................................................................................................................. 171Paraguay ............................................................................................................................................ 172Peru ................................................................................................................................................... 173Venezuela .......................................................................................................................................... 173Caribbean ................................................................................................................................... 175Haiti ................................................................................................................................................... 175Middle East ............................................................................................. 177Bahrain .............................................................................................................................................. 177Iran .................................................................................................................................................... 179Iraq .................................................................................................................................................... 180Israel & Palestine ............................................................................................................................... 185Jordan ................................................................................................................................................ 189Kuwait................................................................................................................................................ 191Lebanon ............................................................................................................................................. 192Oman ................................................................................................................................................. 195Qatar ................................................................................................................................................. 196Saudi Arabia ...................................................................................................................................... 197Syria ................................................................................................................................................... 199Turkey ................................................................................................................................................ 204United Arab Emirates ........................................................................................................................ 206Yemen ............................................................................................................................................... 207North America ......................................................................................... 213Canada ............................................................................................................................................... 213United States of America .................................................................................................................. 21311

Global Security ReportEgypt31 January An Egyptian court ruled on Saturday to ban the armed wing of Palestine’s Hamas group anddesignated it as a terrorist organization, in a move that was slammed by the Islamist movementas "dangerous." "The court ruled to ban the Qassam Brigades and to list it as a terrorist group,"said Judge Mohammad al-Sayid. The case was based on allegations that the Qassam Brigadesstaged terrorist attacks to support the Muslim Brotherhood and carried out a bombing andshooting operation, which killed 33 security personnel in the Sinai Peninsula in October of 2014.Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood that Egypt listed as a terrorist group in 2013,was voted into power during 2007 elections in the neighbouring Gaza Strip. "We reject theEgyptian court's decision against the Qassam Brigades. It is a political, dangerous decision thatserves only the Zionist [Israeli] occupation," Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri as said. Egyptianofficials say weapons are smuggled from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip into Egypt, where they endup with militant groups fighting to topple the Western-backed Cairo government. Egyptianofficials say the Brotherhood, Islamic State, Al Qaeda and Sinai Province, previously called AnsarBayt al-Maqdis, share the same ideology. The Muslim Brotherhood says it is committed topeaceful activism despite facing one of the toughest crackdowns in its history.30 January A homemade bomb was detonated Friday in Alexandria, injuring a number of pedestrians. "Animprovised explosive was detonated in Al-Bitash district, injuring some pedestrians anddamaging storefronts," an official said, adding that security forces blocked off the site andcombed the surroundings. He also said that bomb experts have defused another improvisedbomb at a train station in Alexandria's Bakous district. No group has yet claimed responsibilityfor the explosion, which comes hours after a series of simultaneous attacks in North Sinaireportedly killed 26 people and injured 47, according to security sources. The "Walayet Sinai"militant group (formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis) has claimed responsibility for theattacks, of which the Egyptian government has yet to announce an official death toll.29 January A series of simultaneous bombings targeting security facilities in the Sinai killed at least 26people. The wave of bombings was the first major outburst of violence since the main Islamistmilitant group operating in the Sinai pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in November.Through a Twitter account, Ansar Beit al Maqdis now known as the Sinai Province of the IslamicState, claimed responsibility for attacks on more than a half-dozen locations. The assault wasthe most complicated and widely coordinated terrorist attack in Egypt in years. It was also thedeadliest attack in the Sinai since a multistage assault on a military checkpoint killed at least 31people on the night of October 24. Attackers deployed multiple car bombs and mortars againstseveral government targets: the North Sinai security headquarters in Arish, the provincialcapital; a nearby army base; a hotel used by the police; a security camp near the border town ofRafah; and several checkpoints. Al Ahram, Egypt’s flagship state newspaper, reported that itsoffice in Arish had also been completely destroyed. It is unclear whether it was intentionallytargeted or impacted because it is near the security headquarters. The bombings had injuredmore than 100 people. Borhan el-Beek, a resident of Arish, said his home was about 400 yardsfrom a complex of security buildings that were attacked in four places about 7:30 p.m., not longafter the start of the nightly curfew. “Now there are soldiers and patrols filling the streets,” hesaid, “and I can see from my balcony there are tanks making the rounds.” The army “has beenfighting terrorism for a year and a half, and how are the percentages? Is it increasing ordecreasing?” he asked. “In the North Sinai, we just don’t know.” Egyptian president Abdel Fattahal Sisi pulled out of an African Union summit in Ethiopia and flew home "to monitor thesituation", his office said. "The army and police will intensify their raids against terrorist andextremist elements in Sinai and across the country," a military statement said. The militants saytheir attacks are in retaliation for a government crackdown on Morsi supporters in whichhundreds have been killed, thousands jailed and dozens sentenced to death.28 January Security forces defused 15 bombs, mostly homemade, in seven different Egyptian provinces andarrested ten people who they described as "terrorist elements," according to a security source."Explosive experts have successfully dismantled eight improvised explosive devices thattargeted police personnel and facilities across the province of Cairo," said the source, who14

Global Security Reportrequested anonymity. The source said that seven other bombs had been defused in the Giza,Beni Suef, Minya, Aswan, Menoufiya and Fayoum provinces. Police also arrested ten people whothey claimed, "belong to a Muslim Brotherhood cell in the Alexandria province," according to astatement issued by the Interior Ministry. "We found them with three machine guns, nineshotguns, and large amounts of ammunition, explosive devices, electrical equipment, mobilephones and bomb-making tools," the ministry said.A bomb went off near a checkpoint Tuesday evening injuring seven security personnel inQaliubeya, in Greater Cairo, with two more bombs found close to a checkpoint in QenaWednesday. One of the Qena devices was a sound bomb, which went off, whilst the other wasdismantled, both leaving no casualties. In Cairo’s downtown, bomb experts dismantled anexplosive device, which was found at a bus stop in Abdel Moneim Riyadh Square on Wednesdaymorning. Another bomb went off in Fayoum close to a police station and a hospital Tuesdayevening, making it the sixth bomb explosion to take place Tuesday in Fayoum, leaving one minorinjury. Several more explosive devices were dismantled Tuesday morning in Aswan, Fayoum,Kafr El-Sheikh and Menoufiya. However in Alexandria, a bomb went off killing one and injuringtwo others Tuesday morning as militants were on their way to plant it. In recognition for theefforts of explosive experts, Cairo Governor Galal Saeed said that an EGP 100,000 reward willbe provided to those who defuse explosive devices. Insurgent activities, particularly targetingareas with a high security presence, have been going on in Egypt since the ouster of formerpresident Mohamed Morsi in July 2013. Many of the attacks were claimed by militants groupsoperating in Egypt including Ajnad Masr and ‘State of Sinai’, formerly known as Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis. Security expert Mohamed Kadri said the situation will not persist for long, adding thatit has been ongoing whilst the country moved forward on the roadmap. Egypt has achieved thethird pillar, the election of a parliament, which may help with security concerns in the country,stabilising the situation.Three terrorists have been killed in a military campaign in Sinai. Fifty-seven suspects, includinga Palestinian national, have also been nabbed as part of the comprehensive campaign meant toeliminate terrorism in the peninsula, military spokesman Mohamed Samir said. Over last week,23 hotbeds have been destroyed, as well as 23 cars and 50 motorcycles, all which had no plates.Three mortar shells and two RPGs, as well as two suicide belts and a sticky bomb have also beenseized, Samir noted. The army also found camouflage clothes and flags of Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis,he added. Two bombs were also defused in El-Wefaq area in Rafah and El-Barahma area inSheikh Zuweid, the spokesman said, noting they had been planted to target military troops.27 January More than 500 backers of Egypt's blacklisted Muslim Brotherhood were arrested as clasheserupted on the anniversary of its 2011 uprising, a minister said Monday, in the biggest policesweep for months. Twenty people, mostly demonstrators, were killed Sunday when protestersclashed with security forces after Islamists called for rallies against President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's government as Egypt marked the fourth anniversary of the toppling of ex-strongmanHosni Mubarak. Supporters of Mubarak's successor, Mohamed Morsi, have regularly clashedwith security forces since he was ousted by then army chief Sisi in July 2013. Rights groups haverepeatedly denounced the use of "excessive force" by the authorities to crush opposition rallies."We arrested 516 elements from the Muslim Brotherhood group who were involved in firingammunition, planting explosives and bombing some facilities" on Sunday, Interior MinisterMohamed Ibrahim said. The arrests were the biggest police sweep targeting Morsi supportersin a single day since Sisi came to power after a landslide election victory last May. Ibrahim said20 people were killed Sunday in clashes, most of them in Cairo's northern district of Matareya,adding two policemen were among the dead. A health ministry official said among the dead wasa protester killed in the northern city of Alexandria in similar clashes.26 January Egypt’s largest and most visited shopping centre, City Stars, has been evacuated and shut downafter a credible bomb threat. Youm7 has reported that two bombs were successfully defused at‘Gate 1′ and ‘Gate 7′. Bomb disposal teams are currently combing the shopping centre andnearby areas for other explosives. Al-Masry Al-Youm, however, reports a bomb was located onthe third floor of the shopping centre. Security sources said that the bombs were merely15

Global Security Reportintended to cause fear among shoppers and did not contain a significant amount of explosives.One report said the bombs were located inside bathrooms of the shopping centre and weretaken outside, where they were defused. ONA meanwhile shared a photograph of a notereportedly found with one of the bombs. The note reads “Want a surprise. Support coup. 7 PM.”The validity of the note could not be verified.Militant group Ajnad Misr claimed an explosive device that went off on Sunday, the fourthanniversary of the 25 January Revolution, in the Alf Maskan area of eastern Cairo. The explosionoccurred near a Central Security Forces position close to the entrance to El-Shams Sporting Club.The Ministry of Interior reported that two police officers were injured in the incident. Thegroup’s statement, however, claimed there were more injuries that went unreported. While theactual toll is unclear, militant groups are known to frequently overstate the impact of theiroperations for propaganda purposes, to showcase strength and attract support. In a statementposted Sunday on its Twitter account, Ajnad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt) also claimed a series ofbombings over the past month. These occurred against what it calls the “criminal agencies”, inreference to the security agencies. One such bombing occurred in Alf Maskan on Friday, andtargeted police officials during the presence of the Minister of Interior’s aides. The statementalleged that it resulted in the death and injury of several police employees, however, state-runnewspaper Al-Ahram reported that there were only four injuries and no deaths. Another bombclaimed by the group detonated near the main entrance of the Qubba Palace, near Heliopolis,and targeted police officials responsible for guarding the entrance. Two injuries, a colonel anda corporal, were reported after the explosion. Another Ajnad Misr bomb targeted a high-rankingofficer near Al-Talbeya police station on 6 January. The explosive device was detected by theauthorities and was located in front of a gas station near the police station. While attempting todismantle the device, it exploded killing a police officer and injuring a worker in the gas station,according to Al-Ahram. The group claimed that all its operations target “criminal agencies” andthat no operations were undertaken targeting public transportation or public facilities.Sinai-based militant group Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis has published online a video showing thekidnap and murder of police captain Ayman El-Desouki earlier this month. El-Desouki waskidnapped at a checkpoint on the highway between the cities of Rafah and Al Arish in NorthSinai on 11 January. His body was found near Rafah on 13 January, according to the army. Thefirst part of the six-minute-long video clip shows images of Egyptian security forces "beating,arresting and detaining pro-Morsi women protesters," to the sound of late Al-Qaeda leader AbuMusab Al-Zarqawi denouncing the silence of Muslim scholars in the face of "the mistreatmentof Muslim women." The second part of the video shows the ABM kidnapping El-Desouki, duringwhich he is seen pleading that he has a pregnant wife. In the third part, speaking from anunknown location, El-Desouki appears to be made to say that the ministry of interior arrestsyoung women and students and abuses them in Egypt's prisons. He pleads for the release ofthese women, warning that otherwise more policemen will be targeted. The last part of the clipshows masked militants executing the police captain, who is blindfolded and on his knees, byshooting him twice in the head. The video has been removed from YouTube for violating itspolicies due to its graphic content, but continues to be uploaded and shared online via otherpro-ISIS social media accounts.North Sinai locals have found three corpses with bullet wounds, raising the number of bodiesfound in similar circumstances to nine since the beginning of the week. A number of bodies havebeen found either shot or decapitated in the restive peninsula over the past few months. Egypt'smost active militant group, Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, has already claimed responsibility for killingat least 12 people by decapitation, accusing them of collaborating with the Egyptian army orIsraeli intelligence. Meanwhile, a conscript was injured in an armed attack on Sheikh Zuweidpolice station on Monday.The two sons of Hosni Mubarak have been released from jail, a day after the fourth anniversaryof the uprising that ousted the former Egyptian president. Alaa and Gamal Mubarak walked freefrom Cairo's Torah Prison. Last week, a court ordered that the two men be freed pending retrialalong with their father for embezzlement. It found that they had already served the maximum16

Global Security Reportpre-trial detention period. Although their release had been expected, it follows deadly clasheson Sunday between police and anti-government protesters commemorating the uprising. Someof the anger that led to Mr Mubarak's overthrow was fuelled by the widespread belief that heand his sons had illegally amassed vast amounts of wealth. Gamal, 51, was a leading member ofthe former ruling National Democratic Party and was widely seen as his father's heir apparent.Alaa, 53, was a leader among the business elite. Both were detained along with their father inApril 2011 and subsequently charged with corruption, embezzlement and insider trading. InMay, they were sentenced to four years in prison for embezzlement, after being found guilty offraudulently billing the government for $14m (£9.3m) of personal expenses. But that convictionwas overturned earlier this month by the Court of Cassation, which found that legal procedureshad not been followed properly and ordered a retrial. The brothers were acquitted of theseparate corruption charge - which related to the sale of a plot of land - in December 2013, whilethe insider trading case has yet to go to trial.In a landmark case, an Egyptian doctor has been convicted of the manslaughter of a 13-year-oldgirl who died after an illegal female genital mutilation procedure. Opponents of FGM weredismayed when Raslan Fadl was acquitted in November of charges relating to the death of 13-year-old Suhair al-Bataa. But after an appeal, a court in Mansoura sentenced him to more thantwo years in prison. The campaign group Equality Now called the ruling a "monumental victory".Although FGM was banned in Egypt in 2008, it remains widespread. Suhair al-Bataa, who livedin small farming community on the outskirts of Mansoura, died in 2013. Prosecutors argued thatshe was forced to undergo FGM by her father. Fadl denied carrying out the procedure, saying hehad only treated her for warts and that her death had been caused by an allergic reaction topenicillin. Both he and Suhair's father were cleared of any wrongdoing at their initial trial. Butprosecutors appealed against the verdict and on Monday it was overturned. Fadl was sentencedto two years in prison for manslaughter and three months for performing the FGM procedure.His clinic was also ordered to close for a year. Suhair's father was given a three-monthsuspended sentence.25 January At least 18 people were killed in political violence on the fourth anniversary of the EgyptianArab Spring uprising. Security officials said three of those killed were militants trying to plantbombs that accidentally exploded in two Nile Delta towns, and three others were policeconscripts. At least 12 others were civilians killed by security forces. As many as 10 civilianswere killed in clashes in the Matariya district, a frequent flash point on the northern edge ofCairo, and dozens of civilians were reportedly injured in clashes at scattered protests aroundthe country. After nearly 18 months of recurring police shootings at street protests since themilitary takeover in 2013, it was the deaths of two others killed over the weekend that mostcaptured Egypt’s attention. Sondos Reda Abu Bakr, a 17-year-old high school student, was killedFriday by police officers firing birdshot at a demonstration in Alexandria in support of oustedPresident Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. And Shaimaa al-Sabbagh, 32, a leftleaningpoet and activist, was killed in Cairo. She was a member of a socialist political party thathad supported President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and the military takeover he led in 2013. Ms.Sabbagh was walking in a small group of fellow party members on Saturday with a wreath offlowers to lay in Tahrir Square to honour demonstrators killed there during previous protests,according to a witness account and a video recording of the scene. When her group took up theArab Spring chant for “bread, freedom and social justice,” a contingent of masked riot policeofficers as numerous as the marchers “fired bullets and gas within minutes,” according to atestimonial posted on Facebook by Azza Soliman, a prominent human rights lawyer who wasnearby at the time. In the video, the police officers are seen firing guns from across a narrowstreet. A forensic report said birdshot fired at close range had pierced her lung and heart. Thedeaths on the anniversary of the revolt were predictable, rights activists say, because the swiftuse of firearms has become de facto police policy toward any unauthorized public assembly,especially in downtown Cairo.Prime Minster Ibrahim Mehleb’s cabinet has extended the curfew imposed on North Sinai foranother three months, until the end of April. Cabinet spokesman Hossam El-Kawish noted thecurfew was supposed to end on 25 January, but it was decided to extend it to 25 April. The17

Global Security Reportauthorities imposed a limited state of emergency in selected areas of North Sinai as part ofheightened counterinsurgency measures. These came in the wake of the 24 October militantattacks, which left at least 30 security personnel dead. The attacks were later claimed by ‘Stateof Sinai’, the Islamist insurgent group formerly known as Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis. The time of thecurfew was initially set from 5pm to 7am. However, in December the curfew hours werereduced to 11 hours instead of 14, from 7pm to 6am.A bomb wounded two Egyptian policemen in Cairo on Sunday and security forces moved quicklyto disperse small protests on the anniversary of the popular uprising that toppled autocratHosni Mubarak in 2011, officials said. The blast targeted policemen stationed outside a sportsclub in Cairo's Heliopolis area, the security sources said.24 January An Egyptian student was killed during clashes between anti-government protesters andresidents in the coastal city of Alexandria, as demonstrations gathered pace days before theanniversary of the 2011 uprising. The Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of theoutlawed Muslim Brotherhood, identified the dead woman on Friday on its Facebook page as17-year-old Sondos Rida Abu Bakr and accused security forces of shooting her during ademonstration.Movement on the Zagazig-Ismailia railway was halted Saturday after an improvised explosivesdevice exploded on the tracks. The improvised device was placed on a small bridge, where trainspass. Al-Sharqiya's governor checked the site of the explosion and said a team of engineers willexamine the bridge to make sure it's safe for trains. Halts in railway services due to plantedbombs have been common in the last year and a half since the ouster of Islamist presidentMohamed Morsi in July 2013.23 January Several IEDs went off near electricity towers in Egypt governorates of Giza, Beheira and the RedSea. A 220-kilovolt electric tower in Marioutia, Giza collapsed to explosive devices planted at itsfour legs. The tower will have been repaired in two weeks at the cost of 1 million EGP. Anotherelectric tower on Saqqara Road in Giza collapsed to the explosion of four improvised bombs.Power went off at areas the tower supplies. Another bomb detonated at an electric tower inMarioutia, Giza. Also in Giza, a public bus was damaged after anonymous assailants threwMolotov cocktails inside. A natural gas plant of The Egyptian Natural Gas Company was bombedin a village of the Delta governorate of Beheira. Three alleged Muslim Brotherhood memberswere arrested in the Red Sea resort of Hurghada after locals reported an explosion near aresidential area. One of the suspects was badly injured in his leg as the explosive devicedetonated while they were manufacturing it. The second suspect was arrested south ofHurghada, where he was heading to Upper Egypt while the third was arrested at HurghadaAirport before heading to Cairo.22 January A bomb attack has targeted the home of a judge presiding over one of the trials of deposedpresident Mohamed Morsi. Unknown assailants threw an improvised bomb at the home of JudgeKhaled Mahgoub in the southern Cairo suburb of Helwan before fleeing the scene. No injurieswere reported in the attack, which caused windows and parts of the walls of the house to breakor crumble. Mahgoub has presided over one of the trials against Morsi where the ousted leader,along with 130 defendants, faces charges over a prison break during the 2011 revolution. Theformer Islamist leader Morsi, who was overthrown in July 2013, is facing two other court casesover charges including espionage and incitement to murder. He could face the death penalty ifconvicted.Police have arrested members of a "terrorist cell" in Cairo that has links to Sinai-based militantsAnsar Beit Al-Maqdis. The interior ministry said the group, made up of five people, admitted tocommitting "terrorist crimes" using "explosive devices" against police in Cairo. Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis reportedly helped "one of them to travel to Syria for military training." The report alsosaid the men joined jihadist group Ajnad Misr and received training on "making explosives."Police said they arrested the men and seized two machine guns, a birdshot gun, and a pistol. Themen allegedly admitted to involvement in anti-police attacks at Cairo and Helwan universities,18

Global Security Reportthe Medicine Faculty of Qasr Al-Aini University and the High Court. They also reportedlyconfessed about other members of their group involved in attacks, including "an attack in[downtown] Boulaq Abou El-Ela" and "an incident with two explosives in Masr El-Gedida."19 January Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, Egypt's deadliest militant group which has pledged allegiance to ISIS,claimed Monday to have bombed a pipeline in the Sinai that carries gas to Jordan, saying it wastargeted over Amman's role in the US-led war on the Islamic State group. The group tweetedunverified pictures of the claimed attack, without saying when it was carried out. Since the 2011uprising that toppled President Hosni Mubarak, there have been 27 confirmed attacks on energypipelines in the Sinai Peninsula, the most recent of which was on December 23. The Egyptianmilitary has poured troops and armour in the Sinai to fight the jihadists.A partial collapse occurred at a precipitation basin in the new Suez Canal lane due to an overloadof material dredged from the lane under construction, according to a statement by the SuezCanal Authority. The head of the authority, Mohab Mamish, said in the statement that the forceof a drainage pipe resulted in a water leak of one of the bridges leading to the precipitation basin.He added that there were no casualties or injuries, after rumours were reported saying that theaccident had claimed the lives of hundreds. Two cars and a loader were pushed and immersedunder the water; one of them so far has been recovered. Following the accident, all departmentsat the Suez Canal Authority coordinated with the Engineering Authority of the Armed Forces atthe site to control the situation and stop the water leakage at the bridge. The bridge is beingrestored and the basin is being prepared for work again, added the statement.17 January A natural gas line explosion caused a fire in Giza’s Manshiyet Dahshour neighbourhood, while atrain crashed in Suez early Saturday morning, state-media reported. The gas pipeline fire wasextinguished before it reached any residential homes and left no injuries or casualties. It wasunclear whether the explosion was the result of an accident or a militant attack. Militants havetargeted the main gas pipeline in North Sinai numerous times over the past year. In a separateincident, an explosive device went off along a railroad near Suez leading to a train crash. OnFriday, a homemade explosive device was found in one of Alexandria’s tram stations, butsecurity forces sealed off the area and defused the bomb. Earlier the same day, anotherimprovised bomb exploded near an Alexandrian police station. No casualties were reported.16 January A car bomb went off outside a police station in Egypt's second city, Alexandria. No deaths orcasualties were reported. An improvised explosive device (IED) was planted inside a car thatwas parked outside the San Stefano police station, Alexandria Security Chief Amin Ezz said. Civilprotection forces moved to the scene for inspection and combing the area in search for any otherIEDs.15 January The purported leader of a militant group that has staged several small attacks over the past yearin the Cairo has called on the young to join the extremists' fight. The call came in an hour-longinterview with a man identified as Magd Eddin al-Masri, who claims to be the leader of AjnadMisr, or "Egypt's Soldiers," a group that surfaced as part of a rising insurgency in Egypt followingthe ouster of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013. The interview by the group'smedia arm was posted on social networking sites on Sunday. It was the first public appearanceof al-Masri, which is Arabic for "the Egyptian," and a move apparently aimed at gaining moreprominence in the group's campaign of retribution for the government's crackdown onIslamists. In the footage, al-Masri claimed that Egypt is well suited to avenge the killings, tortureand detentions of Islamists in the wake of the authorities' crackdown on Islamists followingMorsi's ouster. The crackdown has killed hundreds and jailed thousands. Ajnad Misr hasclaimed responsibility for several smaller attacks — including ones that targeted thepresidential palace, the foreign ministry and the main Cairo University last year. Al-Masri saidhis group's aim is to target security forces, not civilians, and insisted it has no links to any othergroups, either in or outside Egypt. He said that his group had cancelled several planned attacksfor fear of killing civilians and added that there are no foreign fighters in the ranks of Ajnad Misr.19

Global Security Report14 January Three decapitated bodies were found on among five civilian corpses in different parts of Egypt'srestive North Sinai governorate. Egypt's most active militant group Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, whichswore allegiance to the Islamic State last November, had already claimed responsibility forkilling at least 12 people by decapitation, accusing them of collaborating with the Egyptian armyor Israeli intelligence. Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis have also claimed responsibility for most of theattacks in Sinai since Morsi's ouster.Egyptian security forces have killed seven alleged extremists in North Sinai. Security sourcessaid that forces destroyed “68 terrorist hotbeds, including 22 houses and 46 huts used byjihadists to carry out terror attacks against police and army.” Forces destroyed ten cars and 20motorcycles belonging to the fighters, in addition to two farms. The source did not specify thetime frame in which security forces carried out these raids. There has been a media blackout inSinai since the army began its operations over a year ago, with official news coming mainly fromthe military spokesperson and the official news agency.13 January Egypt's President Sisi could still pardon three jailed Al Jazeera journalists who are now facing aretrial if he deems it appropriate, the country's foreign minister said. Canadian-EgyptianMohamed Fahmy, Egyptian Baher Mohamed and Australian Peter Greste were sentenced lastJune to seven to 10 years for spreading lies to help a "terrorist organization" - a reference toEgypt's outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. Sisi said in November the issue of a presidential pardonwas under discussion. Egypt's High Court ordered a retrial of the men on Jan. 1. Asked about apresidential pardon, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukri said: "All avenues are on the agenda in thecontext of the president’s constitutional and legal rights." Rights groups and Westerngovernments have criticized the detentions. Al Jazeera says the trial was flawed and hasdemanded their release. Shoukri said a decision by the Doha-based channel to halt broadcastslast month of its Egypt-focused operation Al Jazeera Mubasher Misr, whose content angeredCairo, would help improve strained ties with Qatar. Egypt has accused Al Jazeera of being amouthpiece for the now-banned Brotherhood, which the channel denies. Sisi met a Qatari envoylast month, the latest step in diplomatic efforts led by Saudi Arabia to help patch up ties.Kidnapped police captain Ayman El-Desouki was found dead on Tuesday in the restive SinaiPeninsula, Egypt's army announced in a statement. A military spokesperson described thekilling as "cowardly." El-Desouki, an officer in the ports security division, was on a bus in NorthSinai on Monday when alleged members of militant group Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis– who had setup a checkpoint – searched the bus and took him to an unknown location. The army statementadded that on Tuesday morning police and military personnel pursued 'terrorists' in SheikhZuweid, Rafah and Al-Arish, the places where the police captain might have been captured. Italso said that during the pursuit ten 'terrorists' were killed, while two others were arrested.Egypt's general prosecutor, Hisham Barakat, imposed on Monday a gag order on the incidentbecause the matter was still being investigated.Egypt's high court overturned the only remaining conviction against Hosni Mubarak andordered a retrial in his embezzlement case, opening the way for a possible release from jail forthe ousted former president. Mubarak, 86, was sentenced to three years in prison in May fordiverting public funds earmarked to renovate presidential palaces and using the money toupgrade family properties. His two sons were given four-year jail terms in the same case. Theman who ruled Egypt for 30 years has been serving his sentence in a military hospital in Cairo.Now that a retrial has been ordered, judicial sources say Mubarak could walk free as noconvictions remain against him.11 January Egypt rejected the current the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD) high storagecapacity, as studies showed it will affect its national water security. The dam’s storage capacityreaches 74bn cubic meters. Calling such capacity “unjustified and technically unacceptable”,Egypt asked Ethiopia to reduce it to what was agreed before the start of negotiations over theyears-of-filling and operation of the dam. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the three countriesinvolved, are facing difficulties in technical negotiations, said Alaa Yassin, Advisor to theEgyptian Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation and spokesman for the GERD file. Yassin20

Global Security Reporthopes that all parties adhere to the August agreements that took place in Sudan “withoutprocrastination and time-wasting”, while the three countries are trying to overcome thesedifficulties. “Egypt’s share in the historic Nile River water red line cannot be crossed,” Yassinsaid. Ethiopia began constructing the dam in 2011, and since then Egypt and Ethiopia have beenlocked in a diplomatic dispute, which reached a peak in 2013. Egypt, which utilises more Nilewater than any other country, fears the dispute will have a detrimental effect on its share of Nilewater. As per agreements signed in 1929 and 1959, Egypt annually receives 55.5bn cubic metresof the estimated total 84bn cubic metres of Nile water produced each year, with Sudan receiving18.5bn cubic metres.Unidentified assailants detonated a bomb inside a five-floor house on the border of Sinai's Rafahcity Sunday with no injuries or deaths reported. The house was being used by Egypt's militaryto monitor terrorist groups, including the Sinai-based Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis group that hasclaimed responsibility for several deadly attacks inside and outside the peninsula, according toa security source.10 January The Egyptian Foreign Ministry facilitated the return of 300 Egyptian fishermen from Libya onFriday after their disappearance during a Misrata battle. Misrata, 200km east of Libya’s capitalTripoli, is a major seaport and free trade zone. The port city was hit by air strikes last week,following which Turkish Airlines, the last foreign airline operating in Libya, suspended its flightsto the city. All 300 fishermen lost at sea are from Kafr El-Sheikh, north of Cairo. Egypt’s ForeignMinistry coordinated with the internationally recognised government in Tobruk, the governorof Kafr el-Sheikh, and the head of the fishermen’s syndicate in order to determine theirwhereabouts.Two headless bodies were found in a village in Egypt's restive North Sinai region on Saturday,police said, in the latest in a series of beheadings allegedly carried out by jihadists. The bodiesof two men, believed to be civilians in their 30s, were found near the town of Sheikh Zuweid. Itwas not immediately clear who had killed them, however militant group Ansar Beit al-Maqdishas previously claimed several beheadings of men it said were working for the Egyptian armyor Israel's Mossad spy agency. The Sinai-based group, which last year pledged allegiance to theIslamic State group in Iraq and Syria, has regularly released video footage showing theexecutions of alleged informants, often by beheading.9 January Egypt has signed six new oil and gas exploration contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollarswith foreign and Egyptian companies, the oil ministry said. The agreements provide for thedrilling of some 41 discovery wells in the western desert and Gulf of Suez, the ministry said in astatement via the official news agency. Among the major companies selected are Shell, ENI, BPand Canada's TransGlobe Energy. Egypt has been struggling with soaring energy bills caused bythe high subsidies it provides on fuel for its population of 87 million. The subsidies have turnedthe country from a net energy exporter into a net importer over the last few years. Thegovernment is keen to develop untapped finds to reduce its reliance on imports but hasstruggled to persuade companies to invest in the biggest finds, which are offshore, because theamount it pays them barely covers the investment costs. Economic turmoil has also caused thegovernment to fall into arrears to existing producers. The oil ministry said last month Egypt hadrepaid $2.1 billion of its debt to foreign energy firms as it seeks to restore confidence andencourage investment. It still owes $3.1 billion.Egypt will hold a long-awaited parliamentary election in two phases starting on March 22-23,the election commission said on, something the government hopes will deliver political andeconomic stability after nearly four years of upheaval. Egypt has been without a parliamentsince June 2012, when a court dissolved the democratically elected main chamber, reversing amajor accomplishment of the 2011 uprising that toppled autocrat Hosni Mubarak. Theparliamentary election is the final step in a political roadmap the army announced in July 2013after ousting Islamist Mohamed Morsi - Egypt's first democratically elected president -following mass protests against his troubled rule. The second phase of the poll will be held onApril 26-27. Egyptian leaders say the parliamentary election shows their commitment to21

Global Security Reportdemocracy. Critics say President Sisi, who as army chief toppled Morsi, has underminedfreedoms gained after the uprising that ended 30 years of autocratic rule under Mubarak. In theabsence of parliament, Sisi has wielded legislative authority used to introduce economicreforms that have impressed investors, while also curtailing political freedoms. The People'sAssembly is comprised of 567 seats, with 420 elected as individuals and 120 through winnertakes-alllists with quotas for women, Christians and youth. The remaining seats are appointedby the president. If Egypt has to resort to runoffs, the election process could go until early May.7 January The compulsory evacuation of Rafah is set to enter its second phase, according to North SinaiGovernor Abdel Fattah Harhour. The Egyptian army began to establish a ‘secure zone’ along theRafah border, after a suicide truck bomber and armed raid left at least 30 security personneldead on 24 October. Immediately after the attack, Egypt closed the Rafah-Gaza border. Dayslater the Egyptian armed forces announced it would establish a buffer zone to end all smugglingactivity in underground tunnels connecting Rafah to the Gaza Strip. The first phase of the bufferzone, with a width of 500 metres along the 13.5 kilometres long border with Gaza, began inOctober, with the evacuation of 1,156 families. The second phase is set to cover another 500metres. Harhour said that the buffer zone will eventually reach 5km, with third and fourthphases of demolitions expected to take place in the near future. There is no date yet set for thenext phases of the buffer zone. An emergency compensation of EGP 1,500 will be given to eachfamily evacuated from the second phase area, in addition to the basic compensation. A surveycommittee from Rafah city authorities identified 1,220 houses, inhabited by 2,044 families,which will be evacuated in the second phase. According to the geographic coordinates of thefinal plan, however, the number of families to be evacuated will be much larger. This is giventhat the area includes the most heavily populated parts of the town. Rafah is a border town of14 districts and 11 villages, with an estimated population of 75,000, according to the city’sofficial website. The town is located inside the coordinates the government is establishing andthe evacuation will likely be the end of Rafah city. Harhour said late in December that a “newRafah city will be established behind the buffer zone to resettle residents” and added that it willhave all infrastructure needed.6 January Two Egyptian policemen guarding a Coptic Christian church in Cairo have been shot dead.Sources said the policemen were killed on Tuesday as they stood guard at the church. Anotherpoliceman was killed while trying to defuse a bomb outside a petrol station in Cairo, police said.Egypt's Coptic Christmas falls on Wednesday and security is typically tightened at churchesahead of the holiday after a string of attacks on Christian targets over the past years. InteriorMinistry spokesman Hany Abdel Latif was quoted by state newspaper Al-Ahram as saying, "[It]has nothing to do with any of the holidays of our Coptic brothers, it is instead aimed at thesecurity forces, to try to undermine their resolve." Egypt's Coptic Christians, who make up about10 percent of the population of 85 million, have largely coexisted peacefully with majority SunniMuslims for centuries. But following the army's ousting of President Mohamed Morsi of theMuslim Brotherhood in July 2013, a number of churches and Christian properties were burnedand destroyed in the impoverished south that is home to many Christians. The Brotherhood saidat the time it had nothing to do with attacks on Christians and accused the army of cynicallyusing the minority population to justify a fierce security crackdown.Egypt's top prosecutor ordered the detention of two police officers who shot dead two brothersafter refusing to stop at a security checkpoint in Suez. Prosecutor-General Hisham Barakatordered the officers' detention for four days pending investigation. The officers told theprosecution that the shooting was not intentional. They said they were shooting into the air; thebullets hit the victims "by mistake". Suez Security Director Tarek Al-Gazzar told Aswat Masriyaon Monday that the two killed men were driving an unlicensed motorbike, which arousedsuspicion among security forces at the checkpoint. The men sped away when an officer askedthem to stop, prompting the officer to fire at them. The Suez Prosecution ordered an autopsy forthe killed men to determine the cause of death. It also ordered the seizure of the projectiles usedin shooting at them. Families of the two brothers gathered outside the morgue where theirbodies were kept late Monday, chanting against the security director and the Ministry ofinterior. Security forces fired teargas to disperse them when they marched to the vicinity of22

Global Security Reportthe governorate's security headquarters. The incident shortly follows the shooting of a driverwho refused to stop at a Sinai checkpoint on Friday. Security forces in North Sinai shot a carwhich refused to stop at a checkpoint in al-Arish, killing the driver and injuring anotherpassenger. Army Spokesman Mohamed Samir said in a statement the car was trying to fleethe checkpoint, refusing to respond to army forces' warning signs. He added that the car isowned by someone other than the two passengers and that killed driver possessed nodocuments giving him the right to drive it.5 January Four Egyptian policemen were wounded on Monday by a bomb in Sinai Peninsula, securitysources said. The explosive was planted at the entrance of an apartment building in theprovincial capital of al-Arish.4 January An army officer was killed and three other soldiers were injured when a roadside bomb theywere trying to defuse went off. The bomb was planted by unknown militants in Sheikh Zuweidarea of the province which is usually used by security forces. The attacks targeting police andmilitary increased after the ouster of Islamist ex-president Mohamed Morsi last year. Over 500policemen and soldiers, have been killed in the attacks.3 January Credible sources in Egypt have claimed that at least 10 new governors to be appointed by thegovernment have asked to be relieved of the posts even before they take office. EgyptianMinister for Local Development Major General Adel Labib has said that the appointments havebeen made as part of a reshuffle which is expected to be announced formally in the middle ofJanuary. There are 30 new nominees for governorship positions. Labib said that the newgovernors have been chosen based on certain criteria, including quality, ability and politicalawareness. He added that the new governors must be able to deal flexibly with people. It isLabib, say anonymous sources, who has been asked by the 10 reluctant governors to speak tothe prime minister about their request to be relieved. Two of the nominees are in Greater Cairo,4 are in the Nile Delta and Coastal governorates and the other 4 are from Upper Egypt. Theprospective governors fear that they will be unable to match up to the demands of the peopledue to the economic crisis affecting Egypt.2 January Four explosive devices were neutralized or detonated without leaving casualties in Cairo andUpper Egypt Friday. In the busy Haram Street of Giza governorate, two bombs were defusedoutside a movie theatre and a shopping mall. The bombs contained nails, sulphur, gunpowderand a SIM card so it detonates remotely. Muslim Brotherhood protesters torched a police vehicleusing Molotov cocktails and had briefly blocked the street. Another bomb, composed of gas, anelectrical circuit and a timer, was found next to the railways in Upper Egypt’s governorate ofAssiut before it was neutralized after passengers reported it to the police. On the Assiut-Sohaghighway, a bomb exploded outside a State Information Service building, failing to damagepeople or properties.1 January Egypt's top court has ordered a retrial of three al-Jazeera journalists jailed on charges ofspreading false news. The decision was made after the hearing in Cairo of an appeal by the three,Peter Greste, Mohamed Fahmy and Baher Mohamed, against their conviction. Prosecutorsacknowledged major problems with the verdict, defence lawyers said. A new trial will occurwithin a month but the trio must stay in custody. Al-Jazeera called on the authorities to releaseits journalists quickly. The journalists deny the charges, which included collaborating with thebanned Muslim Brotherhood after the overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi by the militaryin 2013. They say they were simply reporting the news. Two of them are foreign nationals -Peter Greste, a former BBC correspondent, is Australian, and his producer colleague MohammedFahmy holds Egyptian and Canadian citizenship. The three journalists have now spent a year injail since they were first arrested in December 2013. They were convicted in June - with Fahmyand Greste jailed for seven years and Mohamed for 10 years. Judges have ruled that they shouldremain in custody until the new trial.23

Global Security ReportLibya28 January Militants have attacked a hotel in the Libyan capital Tripoli, killing at least nine people includingfive foreigners, officials say. Several gunmen stormed the Corinthia Hotel and opened fire in thereception area. A car bomb also exploded nearby. Unconfirmed reports say some of theassailants have blown themselves up. The Corinthia Hotel is used by foreign diplomats,government officials and foreign companies. The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) hashosted several workshops at the hotel. The officials say the dead include one US and one Frenchcitizen. The US state department has confirmed the death of a US citizen, US Marine Corpsveteran David Berry. The French national is reported to have been working for Libya's BuraqAir. There are conflicting reports as to the total number of attackers. A Twitter account linkedto ISIS said the group had carried out the attack in revenge for the death of Abu Anas al-Liby, aLibyan jihadist who was suspected of involvement in the bombings of two US embassies in EastAfrica in 1998.25 January A new round of talks between rival Libyan factions will take place in Geneva on Monday, theUnited Nations said, even as gunmen kidnapped the deputy foreign minister of the recognisedgovernment. A delegation from the House of Representatives and parties allied to Tripoliattended a first round of talks in Switzerland this month, but major representatives from LibyaDawn and the General National Congress have not joined. In a new push, the U.N. mission inLibya (UNSMIL) said two rounds of talks would take place this week in Switzerland. A first roundpursing the "main political track" would convene on Monday followed by a second one gatheringlocal councils. The UN wants to form a national unity government but has said that smaller stepssuch as local ceasefires and prisoner exchanges would be a more realistic option to achieve first.Last week, the GNC said it was suspending its participation in the talks it says should take placeinside Libya, blaming the seizing of a central bank branch in Benghazi by Thinni's forces.Thinni's government has said the bank, which controls vital oil revenues, was only beingsecured. In Bayda, seat of the eastern government, gunmen kidnapped deputy foreign ministerHassan al-Saghir by snatching him from his hotel, interior minister Omar al-Zanki said. InBenghazi, scene of a separate battle between army forces allied to Thinni and Islamists, 13people were killed and 38 wounded during clashes in the al-Lithi district, medics and militaryofficials aid. Salim al-Naili, a Special Forces battalion commander, accused the Islamist groupAnsar al-Sharia of having shelled residential buildings. Critics have also accused Thinni's troopsof causing casualties by using war planes inside the city.Libya’s Ansar al-Sharia militant group on Saturday confirmed the death of its leader Mohamedal-Zehawi, after Islamist websites reported he had been mortally wounded in fighting inOctober. “We mourn the death of the Emir of Ansar al-Sharia Sheikh Mohamed al-Zehawi,” thegroup said in a statement, without giving details about the time or circumstances of his death.Zehawi’s fate has been a mystery since the October clashes between pro-government forces andIslamist militias in the eastern city of Benghazi in which dozens died. Ansar al-Sharia is classifiedby the United States and the United Nations as a terrorist organization. It has branches inBenghazi, in the eastern city of Derna, and in Sirte, in central Libya. Zehawi “was killed in Beninaclashes near the Benghazi airport, southeast of the city,” the Islamist militias February 17Martyrs and Rafallah al-Sahati Brigades said on Facebook on Saturday. A source at the Shuracouncil of Benghazi rebels also confirmed his death saying “Zehawi was killed in the Beninaclashes on October 11. He was buried in Sirte (west of the city) after efforts to save his live failedbecause he had received a direct hit in the chest and was suffering from diabetes,” the sourceadded. Islamist websites have also posted pictures allegedly showing Zehawi dead and anotherone purportedly of him in a shroud. Washington believes the group is responsible for the 2012attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi that killed the ambassador and three other Americans.In November, the United Nations blacklisted Ansar al-Sharia Benghazi and its sister group,Ansar al-Sharia Derna, over links to al-Qaeda and for running camps for the Islamist State of Iraqand Syria (ISIS) group24 January Commercial flights from Libya to mainland Europe resumed after more than six months onSaturday with a Libyan carrier taking off to Germany, the airline said. Foreign airlines stopped24

Global Security Reportflying to Libya in July when a faction called Libya Dawn attacked a rival group controllingTripoli's main airport, taking control of the capital after a month of fighting. Libya Dawn has setup a rival government and forced the internationally recognized Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni to the east. The airport and some 20 planes were damaged during the fighting. TurkishAirlines briefly returned last year to fly to Misrata, east of Tripoli, before halting flights thismonth due to repeated air strikes on the airport, part of a struggle between Libya's twogovernments. On Saturday, a Libyan state carrier Afriqiyah plane flew from Tripoli's Matigaairport to Düsseldorf, the airline and the German airport said. The airline also plans to fly toRome in the coming days, it said. To circumvent a flight ban by the European Union, Libyancarriers need to contract firms operating planes registered in the EU. With no foreign carriersserving Libya, state carriers operating a depleted fleet struggle to meet demand for tickets.Connections are limited to Turkey and neighbouring countries, some of which like Egypt do notallow flights to Tripoli, which is under control of the rival government. The main eastern airportBenghazi has been closed since May due to fighting in the city.22 January Dozens of Libyan oil workers staged a protest on Thursday in Tripoli to demand the release ofa kidnapped official, a spokesman for state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC) said. Abductionshave become frequent in Libya where two governments allied to rival armed factions arefighting for control four years after the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi. Samir Kamal, head of theOil Ministry's planning department and Libya's long-time OPEC representative, has beenmissing since 15 January. Dozens of NOC and Oil Ministry workers gathered in front of the NOCheadquarters in Tripoli to demand Kamal's release, NOC spokesman Mohamed El Harari said. Awebsite showed a picture of protesting oil workers joined by Mashallah Zwai, oil minister in theTripoli-based rival government. The internationally recognized government of Prime MinisterAbdullah al-Thinni has operated out of the east since a group known as Libya Dawn took overTripoli and set up a self-declared government. Both have appointed rival oil officials. Kamal'sstatus as OPEC representative is unclear. Thinni's government did not nominate him for the lastOPEC meeting in Vienna in November, officials have said. But OPEC's website still lists him asan OPEC representative and Tripoli's government says he holds that position. Libya oil sector iscaught up in a power struggle between the competing governments, a conflict Western powersfear may slide into broader civil war. Update (1 February) – The Libyan representative to theoil producers' organisation OPEC has been released more than two weeks after beingkidnapped. His family said he was in good health considering the situation, but shaken up by hisordeal. They said the identities of his kidnappers - and their motives - remained unclear. AfterMr Kamal's disappearance, relatives said they had contacted numerous groups in an effort todiscover his whereabouts but most denied any knowledge of the matter. Then on Sundaymorning, they received an anonymous phone call saying that he had been released and was onthe motorway in Tripoli. Mr Kamal's son said he was blindfolded and unable to identify hisabductors.The battle for control of Libya threatened to break open its central bank as fighters with one ofthe country’s two warring factions seized control of its Benghazi branch, risking an armedscramble for its gold reserves that could cripple the last functioning institution in the country.The Central Bank of Libya is the repository for Libya’s oil revenue and holds nearly $100 billionin foreign reserves. A desire for a share of that wealth has helped motivate the violentcompetition among an array of militias fighting for money and influence. They have carved thecountry into warring fiefs, destroyed its two largest airports, bombed and shelled civilianneighbourhoods and burned down refineries and oil depots — driving the oil output that is themainstay of Libya’s economy down to less than 250,000 barrels a day. Libyans across thecountry endure electricity blackouts for hours a day, long lines for scarce fuel at gas stations,and shortages of cooking oil despite its vast energy resources. The Central Bank finances thebudgets of the Interior and Defence Ministries, providing salaries and supplies for thousands offighters battling one another from all sides of the struggle. The bank’s neutrality came underincreasing strain as the warring factions established rival national governments. Its most directchallenge has come from the Tobruk-Bayda government, which has sought since October toreplace the central bank’s chairman, Sadik el-Kaber, a veteran banker, in order to take controlof the bank’s assets. But Mr. Kaber has refused to resign. He has kept the bank’s headquarters25

Global Security Reportin Tripoli, the nominal capital, which is controlled by a rival coalition of moderate Islamists,extremists and militias from the coastal city of Misrata. Kaber has pleaded with both sides torespect the bank’s neutrality and keep it above politics, to safeguard Libya’s wealth. Thosearguments appear to have won important support among Western nations, which have a criticalvoice in the bank’s future because much of the bank’s foreign reserves are held in Westernfinancial centres. By Thursday morning, the fighters had posted video online that showed themin control of the premises but refraining, so far, from breaking into the vaults. “We are the youthof the naval base, and we are here to guard the bank,” a fighter in a camouflage uniform is heardto say in a video, as he leads the camera on a tour of the bank and its flooded basement. Pointingproudly to a parked white Toyota Camry and a closed safe numbered 835, the fighter in thevideo says, “There is more inside, but we don’t want to enter, so they don’t call us thieves.”18 January Libya's internationally recognized government in the north-eastern Tobruk has declared aceasefire, with U.N.-brokered peace talks set to resume in Geneva next week. The cease-fireagreement is only moderately promising; while Fajr Libya, which is comprised of several militiagroups, has agreed to a truce, many other militia groups operating in the country had not. TheUnited Nations last week brought factions vying for control of Libya together in Geneva, but keyrepresentatives from the self-declared government and the associated parliament based in thecapital Tripoli stayed away. The Tripoli assembly, known as the General National Congress(GNC), was open to dialogue but wanted to hold the talks in the remote southern city of Ghat, itsspokesman Omar Hmeidan said. "Talks must be in Ghat, not in Geneva." GNC memberAbduqader Hawaili said 100 of the 110 members attending Sunday's session of the GNC hadvoted in favour of the proposal. There was no immediate reaction from the United Nations. Itsspecial envoy for Libya, Bernadino Leon, said in a video message published on Sunday that"essential work" would start at the talks next week.17 January An explosion outside the Algerian embassy in Libya's capital Tripoli slightly wounded twoguards and damaged nearby vehicles. Algeria and most other countries evacuated theirdiplomats in the summer during fighting between rival factions who are battling for control ofthe oil-producing North African state three years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Two guardssuffered minor wounds by the blast. Libya's recognized government, which has been forced towork out of a rump state in the east, denounced the explosion in a statement as "cheap attempt"to undermine U.N.-sponsored peace talks which started in Geneva. Tripoli is now controlled bya faction called Libya Dawn, which has set up a rival government. The eastern-basedgovernment is recognized by the United Nations and Western powers. The Tripoliadministration is not, but still controls ministries, airports and some oil facilities. The U.N. talksare aimed at forming a unity government, ending hostilities and putting a transition todemocracy on track. But the Tripoli-based forces say the process had been rushed, and plan tovote on Sunday on whether to attend.15 January A Libyan warplane attacked a fishing trawler carrying gasoline to the port of Benghazi this weekafter the internationally recognized government suspected it of supplying Islamist militants, amilitary official said on Thursday. There were no details about the ownership or origin of thevessel that military officials say was attacked Tuesday. The attack took place off the coast of theeastern city of Benghazi, which has seen heavy fighting for months between pro-governmentforces and Islamist militants.10 January At least six people have been killed while 20 others have been wounded in clashes that tookplace in Libya’s eastern city of Benghazi. The deadly clashes between rival armed groupsoccurred in al-Lithi, al-Hadaeq and al-Sabri, northeast and south of Benghazi, on Friday. Thereported deaths and injuries were of the forces loyal to renegade General Khalifa Hifter’sbrigade. Hifter’s forces launched an attempt to reach areas controlled by the Shura Council ofLibyan Revolutionaries, an alliance of former anti-Gaddafi rebels, where they were met withresistance. Hifter began a military campaign in May named "Operation Dignity" aimed to 'endterrorism' in Benghazi, in which he succeeded to gain control of several areas.26

Global Security Report8 January Turkish Airlines has stopped all flights to Libya, becoming the last international air carrier tosuspend air travel to the country, where the security situation is rapidly deteriorating. OnTuesday, the airline confirmed its decision to stop flying to Misrata, a port city in the country’snorth and the only Libyan location it was still flying to. Misrata was the target of airstrikes overthe weekend, when Libya’s largest steel plant was hit. Turkey urged all of its remaining citizensto leave Libya amid worsening security in the North African country following a threat made ona Facebook page to shoot down Turkish aircraft. Also on Wednesday, the Foreign Ministryreleased a statement saying a threat to shoot down Turkish civilian and military aircraft hadbeen posted on a Facebook page allegedly belonging to the Libyan Air Force. "This irresponsiblestatement in contravention of international law is totally unacceptable. We strongly condemnthis hostile statement targeting Turkey," the Ministry said. No one from the Libyan Air Forcewas immediately available to comment. Although many Turks have already followed previousgovernment warnings and fled the bloodletting sparked by warring factions and an ineffectualcentral government, others still run restaurants and shops in Libya. Turkey's recent role in Libyahas stirred ill-feeling in recent months, however. The Turkish special representative to Libyabecame the first envoy publicly to meet with the unrecognized authorities in Tripoli last year,prompting accusations that Ankara is pursuing an Islamist-leaning foreign agenda which hasalready seen it alienate numerous former allies in the region.January 6Libya has imposed a ban on Palestinian, Sudanese and Syrian nationals from entering thecountry. Citing an intelligence report claiming that radicalized nationals from those countrieswere determined to infiltrate Libya, Interior Minister Omar Al-Sinki said the decision came afterthe ministry obtained "accurate information about participation of some of these nationals withterrorist groups in Benghazi and the cities of western Libya in acts of violence against the armyand the police." Al-Sinki said that the entry ban on Palestinian, Sudanese and Syrian nationalswas indefinite, and will be enforced at airports, seaports and border crossings.France says it is ready to carry out strikes against fighters crossing out of Libya's southernborder, and prevent the flow of weapons to groups fighting in North Africa's lawless Sahelregion. French President Francois Hollande made the announcement on Monday, but Libya'sinternationally recognised parliament rejected any Western military intervention in theconflict-wracked African nation. "Foreign military intervention in Libya is rejected. If we needany military intervention, we will ask our Arab brothers," parliament speaker Aqila Issa said.While ruling out unilateral intervention, Hollande said that French forces would strike fighters"every time they leave these places where they are hiding. We are making sure to contain theterrorism that took refuge there, in southern Libya. But France will not intervene in Libyabecause it's up to the international community to take its responsibility,'' Hollande told France-Inter radio. France is currently setting up a military base in northern Niger, 100km from theLibyan border region, and troops have been based in the Sahel region since January 2013.French and US drones are already operating out of Niger's capital, Niamey.5 January Libyan air force jets have bombed a Greek-operated oil tanker chartered by Libya's national oilcompany, killing two crew members. A Libyan military spokesman said that the ship'smovements at the port of Derna had aroused suspicion. The oil company rejected this, sayingthe ship was delivering fuel to industrial facilities there and the authorities had been keptinformed. Derna has been controlled by militants for the past two years. The Libyan militaryattacked the port several times last year in an attempt to weaken militant groups there. Militaryspokesman, Colonel Ahmed Mesmari, said the tanker had been targeted because it had failed tosubmit to an inspection before entering the port. He said the vessel was supposed to dock at apower plant in Derna but instead "took a different route", entering a "military zone". "We askedthe ship to stop, but instead it turned off all its lights and would not respond so we were obligedto strike it. We bombed it twice," he said. Libya's National Oil Corporation said the tanker hadpicked up 13,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil in Brega, a port south of Libya's second city, Benghazi,which it was due to deliver to a power plant and water purification facility in Derna. It said thevessel was attacked before it could enter the port to unload its cargo. There were 26 crewmembers on board the ship, Araevo, including nationals from the Philippines, Greece andRomania. Two were injured in Sunday's attack, in addition to those killed. The Liberian-flagged27

Global Security Reporttanker is operated by an Athens-based shipping company, Aegean Shipping EnterprisesCompany. The company said there was no leakage of oil and it was assessing the damage.Mesmari said the vessel had been bringing Islamist fighters to Derna. "We had warned any shipnot to dock at the port without prior permission," he was quoted as saying. The National OilCorporation did not comment on the allegation but said the bombing of the tanker would havea "very negative" impact on oil shipping from Libyan ports. It said it remained neutral in theconflict in Libya and the incident would hinder its ability to maintain supplies within the localmarket.4 January Forces loyal to Libya's internationally recognized government on Sunday launched air strikeson the country's biggest steel plant at Misrata, officials said, hitting the western city allied to arival group for a second consecutive day. A state news agency loyal to the rival Tripoligovernment said a plane had also tried attacking an air force academy near the civilian airportbut fired its rockets early after coming under anti-aircraft fire, missing its targets. Therecognized Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni has been forced to run a rump state in the eastsince a group known as Libya Dawn linked to Misrata took control of Tripoli last August and setup a rival government. A spokesman for forces allied to Thinni confirmed air strikes on Misrata,without giving details.The Libya Dawn Salvation government based in Tripoli, supported by the GNC and Misrata-ledmilitias, will not recognize Libyan visas issued by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives(HoR)/ Abdullah Thinni recognized embassy in Malta. Malta currently has two Charge d’Affairespurporting to be the sole and official representatives of Libya. The Tobruk appointed Chargesd’Affaires, former Minister Habib Lamin, is currently representing the HoR appointedgovernment of Libya from the Libyan Consulate building in the Ta’Xbiex area of Malta. The LibyaDawn Tripoli recognized Charge is still located in the official Libyan embassy building in Attard.He has refused to vacate the building nor hand it over to Habib Lamin. Moreover, afterprotesting that the Maltese government was interfering in internal Libyan affairs, the LibyaDawn Charge d’Affaires today revealed that any Maltese obtaining Libyan visas from the‘‘embassy’’ recognized by Tobruk would be refused entry to Tripoli’s Matiga and Misrataairports – both controlled by the Libya Dawn faction. With two potential embassies representingLibya, the Maltese government finds itself in an awkward position as it seeks to maintain itsvery close links with Libya. Officially, Malta has followed the lead of the UN and EU inrecognizing the Tobruk based HoR and its appointed government led by Prime MinisterAbdullah Thinni based in Al-Beida as the sole representatives of the Libyan people.3 January At least two guards have been killed and two others wounded when missiles hit a security gateat Libya’s largest oil export facility in the port of Sidra. Militiamen fired the missiles at the Sidraoil terminal in northern Libya on Saturday. The militiamen seek to gain control over the oil-richarea. Militiamen and pro-government forces are engaged in battle for the nearby town of BenJawad. Elsewhere in the north-western city of Misrata, Libyan warplanes bombarded astronghold of militias. Fighting between government forces and powerful militias has lefthundreds of people dead and thousands displaced in recent weeks.Supporters of Islamic State, the militant group that has overrun parts of Iraq and Syria, havekilled 14 Libyan soldiers in the south of the country, the official government said today. Westernpowers and Libya’s neighbours fear Islamic State and other radical Islamists are seeking toexploit a power vacuum in the nation. The recognized government of Prime Minister Abdullahal-Thinni said Islamic State had executed 14 soldiers on a road north of Sabha, the main city inthe south. A website called Islamic State in Libya claimed responsibility for killing 12 soldiers atthe same location and posted a picture purporting to show the execution of one soldier. Therival Libyan parliament in Tripoli denounced the killing. There have been attempts by IslamicState to open a branch in Libya at Derna, an eastern hot spot for radical Islamists. The U.S.military is monitoring a nascent effort by Islamic State to train a couple of hundred fighters ineastern Libya, the commander of U.S. forces in Africa said last month.28

Global Security ReportMasked gunmen in central Libya kidnapped 13 Coptic Christians on Saturday, and seven otherswere abducted days earlier, a witness and a priest from the community said. The incidentshighlight a new wave of assaults against Christians from Egypt working in Libya, a country thathas been plagued by worsening instability since the fall of Dictator Gaddafi in 2011. Gunmenwent room to room in a residence for Egyptian Christian workers in Sirte at 2:30 a.m. Saturdayand asked for identification papers to separate Muslim workers from Christians, witness HannaAziz said. The gunmen handcuffed the Christians and drove away with them. “They were 15armed and masked men who came in four vehicles,” Aziz said. “They had a list of full names ofChristians in the building. While checking IDs, Muslims were left aside while Christians weregrabbed. I heard my friends screaming, but they were quickly shushed at gunpoint. After that,we heard nothing. I am still in my room waiting for them to take me. I want to die with them."Aziz, who said he has three relatives among the hostages, added that he survived simply becausehe didn't open his door. Abu Makar, a Coptic priest in the workers' hometown of Samalout insouthern Egypt, said that seven other Coptic Christians from Samalout were abducted whiletrying to escape Sirte a few days earlier. The city has become a safe haven for extremist groupslike Ansar al-Sharia, which the United States blamed for the September 2013 attack on the itsconsulate in Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry saidthat it is following up on the case of the first group of seven abducted Christians. Extremistmilitias have been targeting Christians, women, journalists, refugees and those consideredformer loyalists of Gaddafi, who was toppled and killed in Libya's 2011 civil war. Egyptians havebecome a top target for the militias since the Egyptian government began supporting the Libyanarmy in October in its fight against militants. "We are witnessing a pattern of persecution againstChristians in Egypt," said Magdi Malak, a Cairo-based activist involved in the Sirte abductioncase. “I fear for the lives of the hostages.” Update (5 January) - Thirteen Egyptian Christiansheld in Libya have been freed. However, Muftah Marzuq, head of the council of elders in thecoastal city of Sirte, insisted that the 13 had not been kidnapped, but had been detained bypeople-smugglers. “The Egyptians were held by a group that deals in illegal people-smuggling,because of a dispute involving money and transportation to the Harawa region east of Sirte.”Marzuq said city elders negotiated the release of the 13, without giving further details. He alsodid not mention the other seven.2 January A fire at Libya’s largest oil port has been extinguished by firefighters, officials said. The blaze atthe Es Sider terminal was sparked during a battle between an Islamist militia and forces loyalto the internationally recognized government. The fire briefly pushed global oil prices higher. Atop official at the state-owned National Oil Co., who declined to be named, said the fire had beenput out at the terminal, but that it was impossible to say when the 400,000 barrels-a-day portcould restart loadings. “The fire has burned seven storage tanks and two have collapsed,” hesaid. The official said Libya’s oil production now stood at 315,000 barrels a day. That is downfrom 900,000 barrels a day in September, and is a fraction of its normal capacity of about 1.5million barrels a day.Power shortages that came as a result of fighting in and around the Libyan port city of Ras Lanufare expected to continue, an electric company said. Two power plants that combine to produceabout 500 megawatts of power are down because of fighting in the region, the General ElectricCompany of Libya said. Benghazi this week suffered a full-scale power outage because of poorweather conditions and the electric company said much of western Libya can expect poweroutages to endure. In the oil sector, German energy company Wintershall said it suspendedoperations in Libya for the foreseeable future because of "intense" fighting in Ras Lanuf andnearby Zuetina. Oil storage depots at the Es Sider port caught fire during weekend fighting. Oilexport facilities in Libya have been closed due to violence since at least mid-December. Thestate-run National Oil Corp. confirmed as many as five of the 21 tanks storing oil at the site werein flames, which represents about $100 million worth of crude oil.A Libyan army spokesman says armed militants have shot and killed 17 soldiers and one civilianat a checkpoint. Mohammed Hegazi said the attack occurred early Friday in the central districtof Jufra. He blamed the attacks on "terrorists roaming the desert areas freely." Islamic extremist29

Global Security ReportMorocco & Western Saharamilitias are battling troops in the second largest city of Benghazi in the west. Other militias havetaken over the eastern city of Derna and the capital Tripoli.French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Friday world powers must tackle instabilityin Libya but he stopped short of openly backing the military intervention called for by regionalpowers in the Sahel. "Libya is chaos today and it is a breeding ground for terrorists that threatenthe stability of Niger and, further afield, France," Le Drian said. On Thursday he visited a Frenchmilitary base at Madama, a remote fortress town at a crossroads of desert trade routes innorthern Niger, near Libya's border. However, France has so far ruled out a direct militaryaction in Libya and Le Drian said nothing to change that position during a trip to visit some ofthe 3,200 troops in the region this week. Niger’s president Issoufou said the Sahel was "payingthe price" for the political mess left behind after NATO military action helped remove Gaddafiand direct Western action was needed to fix the situation. "I don't see how armed terroristmilitias are going to bring about reconciliation in Libya," he said.30 January At least six people drowned off Morocco after a boat carrying them sank close to a Spanishenclave that is a regular destination for migrants early on Friday, state media reported. Anotherten people on the boat were rescued near the coastal enclave of Melilla, but there was noinformation on four others thought to be on the vessel. Spain has two enclaves in Morocco, Ceutaand Melilla, and migrants from all over Africa regularly try to reach them either by swimmingalong the coast or climbing the triple walls that separate them from Morocco. Deaths andinjuries are common. Six bodies were found washed ashore on Morocco's Boukana beach, localauthorities said. Ten others were rescued and left hospital after being treated. There were 20people on the boat, including two people smugglers. Their nationalities are unknown.25 January Moroccan security forces seized nearly 24 tons of hashish from a number of boats and arrested11 people after an overnight chase off the northern coast. The operation came hours afterSpanish police said they had seized 11 tons of hashish and detained 55 people across the countryas part of an operation targeting a Moroccan drug trafficking ring. Spain’s proximity to NorthAfrica, a major source of hashish, and its close ties with its former colonies in Latin America, akey cocaine-producing region, have made it the main gateway into Europe for narcotics. TheSpanish raids were carried out throughout the country, including Madrid, Barcelona, Malaga, aswell as the Spanish exclave of Ceuta on Morocco’s Mediterranean coast. Spanish police alsoseized $2.2 million in cash as well as several weapons, including assault rifles, as part of theoperation that followed a two-year investigation. The Moroccan agency did not provide anyfurther details on the extent to which the two operations may have been linked. But policesource in Spain said the gang would smuggle the drugs into Spain on speedboats or hiddeninside the fuel tanks of trucks. Morocco is one of the world’s principal producers of hashish, andthe interior ministry estimates that more than 700,000 people make a living from cultivatingcannabis, from which the resin is produced.Moroccan authorities arrested a suspected Algerian member of the militant group responsiblefor kidnapping and beheading French tourist Herve Gourdel east of Algiers in September. Thesuspect, who was with another individual still on the run, was arrested in Beni Drar, near theMoroccan city of Oujda, a statement from the Moroccan interior ministry said. Oujda is locateda few kilometres from the Algerian border. "He was carrying dangerous substances,telecommunication devices … and guns," the statement said without giving more details. NorthAfrican neighbours Morocco and Algeria share a 1,500 km (970 miles) land border that runsfrom the Mediterranean to the Sahara desert. It has been shut since the 1990s as the twocountries have been locked in bitter disputes. Borders between the two countries are stillfamiliar for smugglers and sub-Saharan migrants trying to reach Europe. Last month, AlgerianSpecial Forces killed Abdelmalek Gouri, the leader of the Caliphate Soldiers, but a dozenmilitants are still wanted by the Algerian authorities. Algerian forces also found the body ofGourdel earlier this month.30

Global Security Report15 January France's foreign minister will travel to Morocco to temper a row with its former colony almosta year after it suspended judicial cooperation between the two states leaving gaps in securitycoordination over Islamic militants. The rare diplomatic spat between Paris and Rabat firstbroke out in February after French police went to the Moroccan Embassy in Paris to questionthe head of the domestic intelligence service (DRT) over torture allegations. That followedlawsuits filed against him in France by French-Moroccan activists. The dispute promptedMorocco to suspend judicial cooperation with France, stalling activities such as jointinvestigations, prisoner transfers and extraditions. The row has impacted security cooperationat a time when hundreds of French and thousands of Moroccan nationals are believed to havetravelled to Syria and Iraq to join Islamic State. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, "Judicialand police cooperation is not an option, but an absolute obligation given the (terrorism)phenomenon [...] in the hope of finding a solution to restore ties that should never have been cutwith Morocco, I intend to go to Morocco soon." Rabat has also been keeping a close eye onrelations between France and Algeria, which have warmed up considerably since PresidentFrancois Hollande took office in 2012. Moroccan Foreign Minister Salaheddine Mezouar, whomet Fabius in Paris at the weekend, accused France of not having the political will to opposeanti-Moroccan feeling. "The time of guardianship is over," he added, asserting Morocco'sindependence from France. Update (1 February) - France and Morocco will resume judicialcooperation, ending a row sparked by a French probe into alleged torture by Moroccanintelligence services. The resumption is important for France, which wants intelligence fromMorocco and other North African countries on terrorism suspects, an interest that has becomemore urgent after this month's killings at the Charlie Hebdo magazine and a Jewish store inParis. Morocco hopes for the continued support of France, its former colonial ruler, in theWestern Sahara territorial dispute. French Justice Minister Christiane Taubira said thatfollowing a meeting with her Moroccan counterpart Mustapha Ramid in Paris on Thursday andFriday, the two countries had agreed to amend the Franco-Moroccan judicial cooperationconvention to boost the exchange of information between the two. They will also bring backliaison magistrates.8 January Morocco has broken international law by signing an agreement with US-based Kosmos Energyto permit drilling in the Western Sahara, says Hans Corell, a former under-secretary-general forlegal affairs and legal counsel of the UN. "Morocco is breaking international law [...] signing anagreement of this nature is in violation of international law," Corell said. "I am looking to theSecurity Council and the responsibility that the council has under the UN Charter." According toCorell, Morocco has violated the principles of international law applicable to mineral resourceactivities in 'non-self-governing territories', the term used by the UN for countries that are yetto complete the decolonisation process. Kosmos Energy started drilling in the offshore CapBoujdour region of the disputed territory on 19 December using the $100m drill ship theAtwood Achiever.3 January Perceived coordination between Egypt and Algeria to support the Polisario Front – which haslong fought Morocco over the Western Sahara region – along with recent attacks on Rabat byEgypt's media, appear to be behind Moroccan state TV's increasingly critical tone regardingEgypt's leadership. "The visit to Algiers last week by an Egyptian delegation to attend aninternational conference in support of the Polisario Front has angered Rabat," said an unnamedMoroccan diplomat. The diplomat did not rule out the possibility that Egyptian Foreign MinisterSameh Shoukry would soon visit Rabat to resolve their differences. An Egyptian diplomatrevealed that Shoukry had "tasked Egypt's envoy in Rabat, Ahmed Ihab, to exert all necessaryefforts to cooperate with Moroccan officials to nip the [diplomatic] crisis in the bud." OnThursday, two Moroccan state television channels described Egyptian President Abdel-Fattahal-Sisi as a "coup leader." They also referred to former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi –ousted by the army in mid-2013 – as Egypt's "elected president." It was the first time forMoroccan state media to describe the Egyptian army's ouster of Morsi as a "coup." Morocco'sKing Mohammed VI had congratulated al-Sisi after the latter was declared president of Egyptlast June.32

Global Security ReportTunisiaof the DRA to distribute it to the needy population, describing the gunmen as lacking humanmorals and Sudanese values. He said the gunmen fled the scene after looting about 80% of thefood supplies, saying residents including the elderly, women and children are in dire need forthe relief supplies particularly during the winter season. Tibin further demanded thegovernment to protect the affected citizens and provide food and shelter supplies. Darfur stateshave seen unprecedented incidents of armed robbery and killing since last November.Businessmen and commercial convoys in South Darfur are regularly attacked by armed gangswhich demand ransom for their release. On Tuesday, two people were killed in clashes betweenunidentified gunmen and a military patrol unit belonging to the hybrid peacekeeping mission inDarfur (UNAMID) in the Burumburum area, about 11 kilometres north-east of Khor Abeche, inSouth Darfur.30 January Tunisian National Guard units in El Aouina thwarted a terror plot from neighbouring Libya, theinterior ministry said. Eleven terrorists were arrested after intelligence unveiled a plan toinfiltrate Tunisia with weapons from Libya. The suspects were planning to target sensitive andvital targets in southern Tunisia, according to the ministry. A day earlier, security forcesdismantled a terrorist cell in Tunis linked to terrorists on the run abroad. The cell fundedterrorist activities and provided financial assistance to the families of terrorists on the loose orin Tunisian prisons. A large amount of cash was reportedly seized. Last week, security forcesarrested eight terrorists during a security clampdown in Sidi Bouzid. They were planning to killsecurity and military personnel. Tunisia continues to eliminate the cells and terrorist groupsthat threaten its stability. The strategies include surrounding them in the mountains andmonitoring them within the cities, along the border and on the Internet. Ridha Sfar, the interiorministry official in charge of national security, confirmed that the number of terrorists beingtrained in Jebel Chaambi was close to 100 and included Tunisians and Algerians. About 2,800Tunisian jihadists remain in Syria, Sfar said in an interview published in Attounissia onThursday. Of those, 1,608 jihadists are still alive, 600 were killed and about 568 returned toTunisia. Sfar said 90% of the Tunisian jihadists belonged to ISIS. "ISIS poses a greater dangerthan al Qaeda because it relies on instincts," Sfar said. "It is bloodier and provides quicksolutions for young people who suffer from sexual repression, a lack of funds and aggression."German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned, during his recent visit to Tunisia,about the inflow of weapons and extremist fighters from Libya into Tunisia. "We should notallow these terrorists to divide us. Terrorism has no religion; it is our common enemy whetherwe are Christians, Muslims or Jews," Steinmeier said at a news conference on January 23rd, thefirst day of his two-day visit. Mohamed Ben Zekri, professor of international relations at theUniversity of Tunis, said the failure of the Libyan political elites to reach an agreement boostedthe presence of terrorist groups. He pointed out that Tunisia was the first country affected bythe crisis in Libya because of the proximity of the jihadist camps to the Tunisian border. "If wedo not eliminate terrorism in Libya, it will seek to find other outlets to cross into neighbouringcountries," he said.26 January Tunisian Prime Minister-designate Habib Essid began new negotiations over his cabinet onMonday after most political parties said they would oppose his initial choice of ministers in aparliamentary vote. Rejection by parliament would mean newly-installed President Beji CaidEssebsi would have to appoint a new premier to try to form another cabinet. Tunisia's politicshave been dominated by negotiations and compromise deals between secular and Islamistleaders after the 2011 uprising that ousted autocrat Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali and brought freeelections and a new constitution. As such, it has been held up as a model for democratic changein a region beset by chaos and violence. The secular party Nidaa Tounes won October legislativeelections and will need strong backing in parliament as it prepares to crack down on Islamistmilitants and make sensitive cuts in public spending demanded by international lenders. Essidon Monday held talks with the Islamist party Ennahda, leftist party Popular Front and smallerpartner Afek Tounes after all three groups rejected his original cabinet proposal where none oftheir political delegates were given posts. "The discussions have begun with Essid and onehopes those discussions will lead to more consensus," Ennahda leader Rachid Ghannouchi told35

Global Security Reportreporters. Essid last week selected ministers from Nidaa Tounes, the leading party inparliament, independents and smaller partners before a vote to ratify his government onTuesday. That vote has been delayed to give time for more talks. In the 217-seat parliament,Nidaa Tounes holds 86 seats and has backing from the liberal, secular UPL party, which has 16seats. Ennahda holds 69 seats, the Popular Front 15 and Afek Tounes eight. Without supportfrom other parties or defections, Essid would fall short of the 109-seat majority needed to ratifyhis government. Delegates from Afek Tounes, who are nominal allies to Nidaa Tounes, hadwalked out of cabinet negotiations last week. But they also said they would enter new talks.Ennahda, which governed in the first Islamist-led government after the 2011 uprising, had saidit was open to a unity government with Nidaa Tounes to improve stability. Nidaa Tounes itselfis a coalition of former Ben Ali officials, leftists and independents. But its hardliners wereopposed to joining with Ennahda, which they blame for unrest when the Islamists were ingovernment.14 January Tunisian police seized five tons of cannabis on a yacht and arrested three European nationals,in a record drugs haul for the North African country, the Interior Ministry said. “Three tons wereseized at first on Sunday and then another 2 tons were found on the yacht” in the coastal resortof Yasmine-Hammamet, south of Tunis, ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Aroui stated. “It’sthe biggest seizure in Tunisia’s history,” he said, adding that Europeans had been arrested butdeclining to give nationalities. “It was an international [drug trafficking] ring.”13 January A Tunisian terrorist just vowed to kill two reporters over their support for Paris magazineCharlie Hebdo. Ansar al-Sharia leader Kamel Zarrouk threatened in a video released on January10 to assassinate Naoufal Ouertani and Moez Ben Gharbia for defending the French satiricalweekly. Terrorists gunned down 12 people last week at the magazine's headquarters. The firstwar was against security forces, but the next would be against journalists, Zarrouk warned.Zarrouk has been implicated in numerous terrorist crimes and assassinations, including theJanuary 3rd slaying of Tunisian police officer Mohamed Ali Chraabi in Zaghouan. His threatcomes as no surprise to reporters. National Union of Tunisian Journalists (SNJT) chief NajiBghouri said, "Tunisian journalists are not afraid of terrorists, and are engaged in this waragainst savagery and barbarism," he added. In response to the Ansar al-Sharia terror threat,Tunisia is prepared to act quickly to protect the press. "Necessary measures will be taken withregard to media members Ben Gharbia and Ouertani, including providing security protectionfor them," Interior Ministry sources said.Online shopping presents an unlikely hurdle for shoppers in Tunisia. With the Tunisian Dinarbeing a closed currency — meaning it cannot be traded or exchanged online, nor taken out ofthe country — participating in the e-commerce community is quite the task. According toTunisia Live, activists launched a campaign that begs the translated question: where is PayPal?The rising viral initiative, #WinouPaypal, challenges the government to lift restrictions on theuse of PayPal and tries to encourage participation in the global market despite the currencybeing closed to promote domestic spending. “Other people around the world have PayPal, andthat’s how they want to do business. It’s not just for developers. Businesses in Tunisia are beingprevented from reaching customers abroad by the lack of any common and reliable paymentsystem,” Ahmed Ouradi, a young developer and campaign activist told Tunisia Live. Buyingonline requires an in-person visit to the bank — only during business hours — where the Dinaris converted and transferred into an electronic payment system, like Mdinar, which is connectedto a mobile device or Internet account. This can be a very slow process. Beyond thegovernment’s effort to boost domestic wealth is the idea of The Tunisian Central Bank thatopening up trade will interfere with trade policies, the report noted. Most online shopping siteswill accept credit or debit cards, but cards from Tunisia are no good for international purchasingpurposes. Tunisia Live also reported that small businesses wanting to flourish within the globalmarket are ultimately hindered because of the restrictions on the use of PayPal.12 January Tunisia should reform its legal system after failing to hold individuals accountable for thekillings of protesters during the country's 2011 uprising, Human Rights Watch said. HRWreported that a lengthy process before military courts in the trials of 53 defendants in 2011 -36

Global Security Reportincluding two former interior ministers and senior interior ministry officials - resulted in lenientsentences or acquittals. The legal process was "blighted by legal and investigative problems andfailed to deliver justice for the victims", HRW found, and included a failure to gather importantevidence and to address command responsibility for security forces. The defendants wereaccused of being involved in the use of excessive force by police in the deaths of Tunisianprotesters between 17 December 2010 and 14 January 2011, the date former President Zine El-Abedine Ben Ali was removed from power and fled the country. During that time, 132 protesterswere killed and hundreds of others were injured, HRW said. “While the Tunisian authorities areto be commended for seeking to ensure accountability for the deaths of protesters, the processwas marred by serious flaws virtually from start to finish,” said Eric Goldstein, deputy MiddleEast and North Africa director. “As a result, four years after the uprising, many of the victims arestill denied justice.” HRW also urged Tunisia to "redouble efforts" to extradite Ben Ali, one of themain defendants in the trials, from Saudi Arabia, where he has sought refuge. The Tunisianuprising began on 18 December 2010, sparked by vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi's selfimmolation,and inspired similar revolutions in countries across the Middle East and NorthAfrica.8 January Two policemen are to be detained for an investigation into the killing of two young women inthe Kasserine region of Tunisia, a judiciary official said Wednesday. The two women, cousins,including one who also held German nationality, were shot dead in their car in August. Theinterior ministry said at time that police opened fire after mistaking them for terrorists whenthey failed to stop. Another cousin who was in the car but survived told AFP that the driverfeared they were being stopped by terrorists. Kasserine lies at the foot of Mount Chaambi, wheresoldiers and police have since 2012 been hunting down jihadists blamed for deadly attacks onsecurity forces.6 January Human Rights Watch has called on Tunisia to abolish "repressive" laws that "silence criticismand dissent" after a blogger was jailed for three-years for criticising the army in a series ofFacebook posts. The New York-based group called on Tunisia's parliament to change themandate of military tribunals as Yassine Ayari, a France-based Tunisian national, was scheduledto re-appear in court over allegations of insulting the military. Ayari, who was convicted inabsentia by a military court on November 18, published several Facebook posts in August andSeptember criticising Minister of Defence, Ghazi Jeribi. The judge presiding over the case saidAyari’s posts had defamed the army command and could harm the "morale" of the armed forces.In another trial on November 18, the same military court sentenced Sahbi Jouini, a police unionleader, to two years in prison under the same article of the military justice code concerningdefamation. "In a single day, Tunisia’s military court imposed prison sentences on a union leaderand a blogger for speech offenses, even though neither was present for his trial" Eric Goldstein,deputy Middle East and North Africa director at Human Rights Watch said in a statement. "Thisis not worthy of the new Tunisia." International law prohibits the trial of civilians before militarycourts. Article 91 of Tunisia's code of military justice authorises up to three years imprisonmentfor anyone who "commits... outrages against the flag or the army, offenses against the dignity,reputation or morale of the army, or acts to undermine military discipline, obedience and duerespect to superiors or criticises the action of military hierarchy or the military officers,offending their dignity". "Repressive laws like article 91 of the military justice code should haveno place in a country where basic human rights are the foundation of its new constitution,"Goldstein said. "As long as such laws remain, those in power can’t resist the temptation to silencecriticism and dissent." Human Rights Watch called on Tunisia's parliament to reform all lawsthat lead to prison terms for offenses that involve defaming or insulting state institutions. Theyshould also change the mandate of the military tribunals to remove jurisdiction of militarycourts over civilian defendants, it added.5 January The country’s largest political party on Monday chose a former interior minister with a longhistory with the old regime as its candidate for prime minister. Habib Essid, 65 years old, has amonth to form a coalition and name a cabinet. He occupied several posts under former dictatorZine El Abidine Ben Ali, including in the interior ministry, which manages the police. Essid wasthe interior minister in one of the transitional governments after the revolution that overthrew37

Global Security ReportMr. Ben Ali in 2011. Tunisia completed its political transition with a string of elections in thefinal months of 2014, with the most votes going to Nida Tunis, a party that includes manymembers of the old regime and has promised stability after a transition marked by unrest.President Beji Caid Essebsi, who formed the party, was inaugurated last week and is anotherveteran of the pre-revolutionary system. He received Essid on Monday and tasked him withforming a new government. Nida Tunis must form a coalition with several other parties in theparliament to gain a majority. Tunisia’s moderate Islamists, who won elections immediatelyafter the revolution in 2011, remain the second-largest party in Parliament but aren’t expectedto be part of the coalition.4 January Suspected Islamist extremists slit the throat of a Tunisian policeman south of the capitalovernight, the Interior Ministry said on Sunday. Since the revolution of January 2011, Tunisiahas seen a rise in Islamist extremism and tackling it is one of the main challenges facing thecountry’s first freely elected President Beji Caid Essebsi, who was sworn in on Wednesday. Thepoliceman “had his throat slit and was stabbed in the heart in Zaghouan province as he wasreturning from work in the capital,” a ministry statement said. It said that a preliminaryinvestigation suggested he had been killed by an Islamist extremist group and that nine suspectshad been arrested. Dozens of police and military personnel have been killed in attacks blamedon Islamist militants since 2011. In late November, an off-duty policeman was abducted anddecapitated in the Kef area close to the Algerian border.West AfricaBenin22 January Lawmakers in Benin have approved a new law for the media. The new law, which was approvedin parliament on Thursday, removes custodial sentences for offences deemed offensive againstthe head of state, and regulates access to news sources. The new law comes in the wake ofrecent concerns over the freedom of expression in the West African nation. Franck Kptocheme,president of the Benin media professionals union (UPMP), confirmed the new law, stating, “it’sthe crowning achievement of more than 10 years’ battle,” calling the decision “clear-sighted.” Ina 2014 Reporters Without Borders index, Benin was ranked 75 th out of 180 countries and wasranked 16 th amongst African nations. The freedom of information advocacy group highlightedseveral cases in which journalists have been targeted for doing their job. Last year, the publisherof L’independent newspaper was given a three-year suspended prison sentences for allegedly“insulting” President Thomas Boni Yayi. The publication was suspended for six months and onereporter was jailed for two months.8 January Benin’s president Thomas Yayi Boni has indicated that his country will “in a few weeks time”send medical practioners to assist Liberia in its fight to contain the Ebola outbreak. Thepresident noted that the primary objective of every member state of the African Union (AU) isto assist in the eradication of the deadly Ebola virus from Africa. Benin’s leader made thestatement Wednesday at a news conference that was held at the Roberts International Airportin Margibi County when he, along with Nigerien President Mahamadou Issoufou, paid a one-daysolidarity visit to Liberia. Speaking to reporters, Benin’s President stated “we want to join youin this fight because it is important that as a member of the sub-regional organization it is ourobligation to help you fight this disease.” President Boni alluded to the efforts being made bymembers of the AU and other partners as an endeavour to galvanize more financial assistanceand putting forth sensitization programmes to help Liberia and other affected nations to combatthe Ebola outbreak.Benin’s Minister of Health, Professor Dorothee Kinde Gazard has announced that the Lassa feveroutbreak in Benin is over. A statement released by the Minister of Health’s office disclosed,“between 15 Oct – 24 Nov 2014, 16 cases were recorded including 9 deaths. Of these 9 deaths,Lassa fever was confirmed in 2 of the 4 fatal cases among healthcare givers.”38

Global Security ReportBurkina Faso23 January Burkina Faso’s transitional President Michel Kafando announced Thursday that the WestAfrican country will hold its presidential and legislative elections, to end the current transitionperiod, on 11 October 2015. The government, political actors and the National IndependentElectoral Commission have also agreed to organize municipal elections on 31 January 2016.Authorities have disclosed that the revision of the poll register will begin on 27 February acrossthe country in order to allow all potential voters to register.15 January On Thursday, Amnesty International officials demanded a full inquiry into a bloody militarycrackdown on protesters that occurred just days before the toppling of president BlaiseCompaore. According to the findings on an Amnesty report, during last October’s protests,troops killed at lest ten people and wounded hundreds others. The official death toll stands attwenty-four and includes five prison inmates who were killed by their guards. Of the inmateswho died in Ouagadougou central prison, three were shot in their cells during the upheaval on30 October while two others died from dehydration and suffocation as a result of being lockedaway for three days. According to figures released by a panel that was set up by interim PrimeMinister Isaac Zida, at least 625 people were injured. Amnesty is now reporting that thepresidential guard, paramilitary police and the army all engaged in “excessive and often lethaluse of force” in a bid to put down the mass street protests, which occurred between 30 Octoberand 2 November 2014. The human rights watchdog further added “evidence suggests that littleor no warning was given by the military before they opened fire on protesters, some of whomhad their hands up and many of whom were shot in the back as they attempted to flee.” Officialsat Amnesty International have indicated that security forces used batons and ropes as well asguns, with children amongst their targets, adding that as a “last-gasp attempt tot crushlegitimate protests and prop up the (Compaore) administration…resulted in the most violentrepression by the military seen in Burkina Faso for decades.” Gaetan Mootoo, Amnesty’sresearch for West Africa, has stated “as part of the process of turning over a new leaf in BurkinaFaso’s history, the transitional authorities must ensure these serious human rights abuses areindependently and impartially investigated….All those suspected of killing and injuringprotesters must be held account,” adding “urgent action must be taken to guarantee all victimsand their families receive truth, justice and reparation.”14 January Construction activities at the Vancouver-based miner True Gold’s Karma gold project in BurkinaFaso were temporarily suspended on Wednesday after an impromptu protest damaged certainproperty and assets. Company spokesperson Blaine Monaghan confirmed the suspension ofoperations, stating that several hundred members believed to be from two surroundingcommunities marched on the mine and threatened employees. According to the spokesperson,this prompted the mine’s management to suspend the operations and to evacuate the propertyin the interest of the safety of the employees and project security. This latest suspension comesafter True Gold last month reported that a “disturbance” in a local community had resulted inthe company temporarily halting part of the construction activities. Construction activitiesremained impeded while the communities and authorities were figuring out the issues.According to Monaghan, “we’ve been meeting with the communities since December, makingpresentations to demonstrate how we could mitigate any of those potential negative impactsand the benefits of mining to their communities,” adding “its important to note that during theseveral years that we were engaged in acquiring the Kama mine permits, we have had over 100stakeholder meetings in about 15 communities within the permit area and we would not havebeen able to receive these permits without stakeholder approval.” According to thespokesperson, the company is uncertain as to who was responsible for organizing Wednesday’sdemonstration. Sources have reported that the main issue appears to be local concerns aboutpotential damage to a mosque and other buildings in the neighboring town of Ramatoulaye,along with perceived negative effects that the Rambo West openpit mine could have on dust,noise and groundwater quality in the community.39

Global Security Report13 January Members of Burkina Faso’s parliament have decided to cut their salaries by half. The movecomes shortly after heated exchanges on social media after it was revealed that MP’s were beingpaid more than US $3,000 (£1,985) a month. Members of the 90-member parliament have beenpaid a gross salary in addition to attendance fees, office allowances, healthcare supplements andfuel costs. Several campaigners have stated that MP’s should not be paid attendance fees andhave pointed out the substantial gap between their salaries and average earnings. The averagesalary in Burkina Faso is about US $150 a month. One MP has indicated that the pay cut wouldpromote better governance and would rebuild confidence in democracy during the yearlongtransition towards presidential elections. As part of arrangements agreed on, following theforced resignation of long-serving ruler Blaise Compaore late last year, the former NationalAssembly has been replaced by an interim parliament, known as the Transitional NationalCouncil (CNT).1 January Interim President Michel Kafando said the country will hold elections in ten months time. “Ourmeeting with the national electoral commission allows us to expect elections from the beginningof October 2015.” Kafando said. He will meet with political parties and civil society groups tobegin planning for elections. Burkina Faso’s army took charge when Blaise Compaore fled on 31October after protests against his bid for another term in office. Kafando, a former foreignminister and ambassador to the United Nations, was appointed head of state by a committee ofrepresentatives from the army, religious and civil-society organizations. Kafando dropped thesuspension of Compaore’s party, Congress for Democracy and Progress, allowing them toprepare for elections but also said that the government may prosecute former members of thegovernment for corruption. The government will also help the family of former PresidentThomas Sankara to find his grave. Sankara was assassinated in the 1987 coup in whichCompaore came to power.Gambia31 January US prosecutors on Friday charged a third man for conspiring to overthrow the Gambiangovernment late last month. Dual US-Gambian citizen Alagie Barrow, 41, has been charged withseeking to overthrow Gambian president Yahya Jammeh on 30 December along with fellow dualnational Papa Faal and US resident Cherno Njie, whom they planned to then have serve asinterim leader. The three men had traveled to Banjul to take part in the attack on thepresidential palace. Officials have indicated that Mr Barrow did not participate in the assault,standing to the side with Mr Njie while waiting for calm to be restored. According to USprosecutors, the plan had been for Mr Barrow to then escort Mr Njie to the presidential palaceafter the coup. US prosecutors have indicated that from August to October, the men hadpurchased numerous arms, including M4 semi-automatic rifles, ammunition and equipment,including night-vision goggles and bulletproof vests, and sent them to The Gambia for their coupattempt. Mr Faal indicated that he believed a larger group would travel to The Gambia howeverultimately there were only 10 – 12 people that went to carry out the coup, “including somemembers from the United Kingdom.” They have been charged with conspiracy to violate theNeutrality Act, which prohibits US citizens of residents from taking up arms or plotting againsta nation at peace with America, and conspiracy to possess a firearm in furtherance of a crime ofviolence. The three men were arrested following their return to the United States.30 January A former US army sergeant has pleaded guilty to involvement in a failed coup attempt in TheGambia last December. Papa Faal, 46, who has dual American and Gambian nationality, wasarrested after he returned to the US. In court in the city of Minneapolis on Thursday, Mr Faaladmitted conspiring to carry out a coup and conspiring to export weapons without a license. MrFaal told the court that “the intent was not to kill anybody” unless they were fired on, adding“we were surprised by the fact that we had more resistance than anticipated.” Mr Faal alsostated that one person had given him funds to purchase weapons and he had bought eightsemiautomatic rifles in Minnesota, adding that he broke them down into their constituent partsand shipped them to The Gambia by hiding them in barrels. US officials found rifle manuals andreceipts at Mr Faal’s home, as well as satellite images of The Gambia in a folder marked “topsecret.” Documents submitted to the court indicate that the plotters had originally planned to40

Global Security Reportintercept the convoy of President Yahya Jammeh but had switched their attention to the placewhen they learned that he was out of the country. Another man of Gambian origin, Cherno Njie,57, of Austin, Texas, is accused of leading and bankrolling the coup attempt. Earlier this month,he appeared in court in Baltimore and is being taken to Minneapolis to face charges. He had notyet been asked to plead. Mr Faal is due to be sentenced at a later date.Rights campaigners have voiced outrage over unlawful detentions and other abuses as newsemerged Friday that a group of senior government officials had been held without charge formore than a week. Police officials have confirmed that nine fisheries officials, including thedepartment head, have been held in custody since Tuesday last week. They have been accusedof irregularities following an audit of the ministry. Assistant superintendent David Kujabieindicated that the arrests were in connection with a report on the ministry’ s activities over sixyears from January 2008 however he refused to say whether they had been charged. Agovernment source has disclosed that the officials were arrested on the orders of PresidentYahya Jammeh for “a wide range of issues including the issuance of fishing licenses to foreigncompanies and trawlers.” The source also indicated that fisheries minister mass Axi Gai hadbeen fired and that work there had ground to a halt since the arrests. Opposition leaderOuasainou Darboe has denounced the arrests, which saw present and former permanentsecretaries and department directors taken into custody, as “unlawful and unconstitutional.”25 January An opposition leader has called for President Yahya Jammeh to release relatives of coupsuspects arrested and kept incommunicado since the failed coup attempt nearly four weeks ago.On 30 December, the presidential guard put down a bid to seize power, blamed mainly on exservicemenfrom the Gambian and US armed forces, while the president was in Dubai. Therehas since been a wave of arrests, detentions and harassments across the country, with officialstargeting the family members of those suspected of being involved. According to Halifa Sallah,leader of the people’s Democratic Organization for Independence and Socialism, “those who arearrested just because they have family ties with the insurgents should be released since noperson becomes culpable to a criminal offence just because of family ties,” adding “justice basedon blood ties and blood feuds belongs to the Stone Age and is not permissible in republics.”According to officials at Amnesty International, since the beginning of January, Gambian lawenforcement agencies, including the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) and Presidential guard,have arrested at least thirty people. In a statement released earlier this week, Steve Cockburn,Amnesty’s deputy regional director for West Africa, disclosed “the arrest and prolongeddetention of family members of the alleged coup plotters, who have had no opportunity tochallenge their detention, violates the basic legal protections provided for by the country’sconstitution, as well as regional and international human rights law.” Amongst those detainedis the mother of Lieutenant Colonel Lamin Sanneh, the former commander of the PresidentialGuard who has been accused of masterminding the attack. According to a relative, “theywhisked her away to an unknown location and since then we have not heard from her…We areworried because she is old and has not done anything illegal. Essa Bojang and Fatou Sonko, theparents of alleged co-conspirators Bakary and Dawda Bojang, were arrested on the same day innorthern Gambia by NIA officers who said they were taking them to Amdalai, a village locatedon the border with Senegal. A relative has indicated “we went to Amdalai Police station and theofficers there said they have not set eyes on them…We are yet to know the reasons why they arearrested. We do not also know where they are being kept.” Family members of Bai Lowe, a mansuspected of having taken part in the coup attempt, were also arrested when NIA officers raidedtheir compound in a village south of Banjul with a list of people to arrest. According to Amnestyofficials, the relatives arrested include Lowe’s 13 and 19-year-old sons.13 January On Tuesday, Gambian President Yahya Jammeh appointed Mama Fatima Singhateh as attorneygeneral and minister of justice in what is the latest change in the top ranks of the governmentafter an attempted coup late last month. Basirou Mahoney, the previous justice minister, wasremoved from his duties last week. His replacement is not a trained lawyer, which under thecountry’s constitution is a requirement. Singhateh’s nomination comes after higher educationminister Aboubacar Senghore was named to the job last week as part of a second broad reshuffleof the country’s government. No reason was given for the successive changes. The country’s41

Global Security Reportcapital city has been on lockdown since the leader of twenty years returned and vowed to huntdown those behind the attempt. The president has blamed the attempted coup on a foreignbacked“terrorist group.” In a separate development, former managing director of the DailyObserver Newspaper, Modou Saidy, has been appointed director of programmes of the stateowned national television.11 January President Yahya Jammeh has indicated that Britain had no involvement with dissidents whoattempted to topple his government 30 December. In a speech on state television late Saturday,the President told members of the armed forces, “there is no evidence of British involvement inthe attack on the State House. There is no single Gambian dissident who came from Britain tosupport...” the attackers, adding “I apologize to Britain, as far as the evidence gathered isconcerned, there is no British Government involvement in the attack. They have Gambiandissidents there, but none of them came here to attack us.” Earlier this month, The Gambia’spresident blamed unidentified foreign dissidents and “terrorists” for the assault on thispresidential place. In a speech, he warned opponents, “we will fight terror with terror andviolence with violence.” In the wake of the failed coup bid, the army has launched a manhuntfor two senior officers suspected of taking part in it. Dozens of people have been arrested andpolice and troops have constantly patrolled the streets across the West African port city.10 January Relatives have reported that the mother of the man believed to have led last month’s coupattempt in The Gambia has been held by security forces for over a week. Earlier this week, TheGambia’s government named Lt. Col. Lamin Sanneh as “the leader of the attackers” in the failed30 December coup. Sanneh died while fighting with soldiers loyal to President Yahya Jammeh,however his relatives, speaking on condition of anonymity over fear of reprisal attacks, haveindicated that his mother, Metta Njie, was detained shortly thereafter and has since been heldin an unknown location. A government spokesman earlier this week declined to comment onreports that relatives of coup-plotters were being arrested.9 January Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh has replaced Minister of Justice Basiru Mahoney in what isthe second cabinet reshuffle to take place since a failed coup attempt late last month. TheMinister of Justice has been replaced by Aboubacarr Senghore, the former minister for highereducation, research, science and technology. The President also replaced Kalilou Bayo,secretary general and minister for presidential affairs and the civil service, with Lamin Nyabally.State television provided no reason for the cabinet reshuffle in its announcement late Thursday.In recent days, security forces in The Gambia have made several arrests however few detailshave been released. This has raised fears in a country that has regularly in the past been accusedof human rights violations.8 January Less than a week after a failed coup attempt, President Yahya Jammeh has handed the foreignand communications portfolios to journalists in what is the latest government reshuffle.According to a presidential decree, Sheriff Bojang, publisher of The Standard newspaper, willenter government as minister of information and communications, a post, which had beenvacant since his predecessor was fired in late 2013. Another journalist, and formercommunications minister, Neneh Macdouall-Gaye, returns to government as foreign minister,effectively replacing Bala Garba Jahunpa. According to a source, Ms Macdouall-Gaye returnedto The Gambia from the United States, where she had been living, just last week. No explanationfor the government reshuffle has been released.7 January On Wednesday, The Gambia’s government accused the former head of the presidential guard ofleading a small group, which included two former US soldiers, in a failed coup attempt late lastmonth. In a statement read on state-owned television, The Gambia’s Foreign Affairs MinisterNeneh Macdouall-Gaye named nine men she said had mounted the early morning assault on thepresidential place in the capital Banjul on 30 December. The Minister indicated that the groupwas led by Lieutenant-Colonel Lamin Sanneh, who had once headed the elite State Guard beforebeing dismissed and fleeing abroad. The group included retired US Army Captain Njaga Jagneand Papa Faal, a former US Army sergeant. Most of the other assailants that were named wereidentified as active and former members of the West African country’s security forces. While42

Global Security ReportSanneh had previously been widely citied by local media as being the plots’ leader, Wednesday’sstatement was the first time that the government named him publicly. According to officials,Sanneh and Jagne were amongst four plotters killed when palace guards fought back, ultimatelyrepelling the attack. One of the attackers was taken prisoner. Faal, along with several othersurvivors, fled shortly after the assault. He and Cherno Njie, who had been waiting with otherplotters 25 kilometres (16 miles) outside Banjul, have since been charged by US federalprosecutors with conspiring to carry out a coup and a weapons violation.6 January Gambian President Yahya Jammeh has vowed to track down the plotters of a failed coupattempt, which sought to unseat him last week, promising to “get rid of them one by one.” At ameeting on Monday night, President Jammeh told his supporters “I have always been mercifuldespite reports to the contrary. But now I would be what I am supposed to be – a good, Muslimleader who has an eye for an eye philosophy.” On 30 December, a group of heavily armed menattacked the presidential palace before dawn. The presidential guard repelled the unidentifiedgunmen. Military sources have reported that an army deserter led the gunmen, who weretravelling by dugout. President Jammeh has led the small West African nation since takingpower in a coup in 1994. Sources have reported that the leader, who has in the past beenaccused of ruling with in iron fist, may use the failed coup as justification for a clampdown ondissenters. Sources close to the investigation have disclosed that dozens of soldiers and civilianshave been arrested in the wake of the attack. The president has also accused unidentifiedforeign forces of attempting to unseat him. He has insisted that his army is and always was “veryloyal.”5 January The United States Justice Department disclosed Monday that two men have been charged in theUS with attempting to overthrow The Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh. According to astatement released by the US justice department between 10 and 12 people had entered TheGambia to overthrow Mr Jammeh “with the expectation that others in the country would joinand assist them.” They included US citizen Cherno Njie, 57, and US-Gambian dual national PapaFaal, 46. Attorney General Eric Holder indicated in a statement “these defendants stand accusedof conspiring to carry out the violent overthrow of a foreign government, in violation of US law,”adding “the United States is committed to holding them fully responsible for their actions.”According to documents filed in court, Mr Njie, a Texas businessman, was in charge of the allegedconspiracy and would have been appointed interim leader of The Gambia had the coup attemptsucceeded. US officials allege that weapons, including M4 semi-automatic rifles and othermilitary equipment, were shipped to The Gambia last year for use in the attempted coup. Thejustice department also disclosed that the plotters met in the woods near the presidential palaceon 30 December before splitting into two teams, adding “Njie was not present at that meeting,instead waiting in a safe place until the assault teams took control of the facility. However, whenone of the assault teams approached the State House and fired a shot into the air, the team begantaking heavy fire from the guard towards,” adding “…numerous conspirators on the assaultteams were killed or injured during the failed attempt to take control of the governmentbuilding…” After members of the group were defeated at the State House, Faal escaped by ferryto neighbouring Senegal, where he walked into the US Embassy. He was later interviewed byUS officials and gave the FBI permission to search his home in Brooklyn Centre, Minnesota. Faaltold the authorities that the group was composed of men of Gambian descent who primarilylived in the US and Germany. According to prosecutors, most of them had military experience.Court papers allege that the group hoped to take control of the government without having tokill Gambians, and though its members initially contemplated ambushing the president’sconvoy, in the hope that he would surrender, they changed plans once the president left thecountry and decided instead to attack the Gambian State House. Faal appeared in court inMinneapolis on Monday and will remain held pending a detention hearing, which is due to takeplace later this week. Prosecutors allege that Fall identified Njie as one of the financiers andleaders of the coup. Njie was arrested Saturday after flying into Dulles International Airportrom Senegal. At a brief court appearance in Baltimore on Monday, he agreed to remain incustody and to be transported to Minnesota to face charges. Last week, The Gambia’s prooppositionFreedom newspaper reported that at least four of the coup-plotters had been killed,including Lamin Sanneh, a former head of the presidential guard who was living in exile in the43

Global Security ReportUS. Officials however have not confirmed these reports. Since the failed coup attempt,numerous officials and opposition leaders have fled the country, indicating that they fear fortheir lives after the military conducted house-to-house raids. Update (8 January) – AMinnesota men accused in the failed coup in The Gambia has been denied release as his case ispending. Papa Faal, 46 of Brooklyn Centre, has been accused of conspiring to violate theNeutrality Act. On Thursday, Mr Faal’s attorney Andrew Mohring had requested the US DistrictCourt in Minneapolis to free his client while the case is pending, citing his military service,community volunteerism and support from the community however Magistrate Judge FranklinNoel denied the request, calling Mr Faal a flight risk as he has siblings in Europe. He also notedthat community support could facilitate his escape. Prosecutors have accused Mr Faal ofpurchasing rifles in Minnesota and shipping them to The Gambia in an unsuccessful plot tooverthrow the president.1 January A coup attempt in Gambia prompted the arrests of several dozen Gambian nationals. Anintelligence source said the suspects are being held in “four villas” near the Gambian capitalBanjul following interrogations relating to an attack on the presidential palace. Authorities werereportedly led to a shipping container full of weapons and explosives by one of the participantsin the attack, and a military official said the three main suspects including the ringleader werekilled. The president denied that the attack was mounted by sections of the Gambian military."The Gambian armed forces are very loyal as far as we are concerned - there isn't any singleparticipation of the armed forces except nullifying the attack. So this cannot be called a militarycoup - this was an attack by a terrorist group backed by some powers that I would not name."He later accused dissidents in the US, UK and Germany. The US government has denied that ithad any role in the alleged coup attempt.GhanaGuineaGambian forces went house-to-house in search of opponents after the long-time leader blamed"terrorist groups" for staging a coup attempt earlier this week. Jammeh alleged that the coupplotters had received backing from some foreign countries. He said, "I live for the Gambia and Iwill die fighting for the truth. No human being can do anything to me, my government, or theGambia. It was not a coup. It was an attack by dissidents based in the US, Germany and UnitedKingdom." After hours of fighting, forces loyal to Jammeh gained the upper hand, killing fiveinsurgents. It was not immediately known how many casualties were suffered by the military.UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has called for "a transparent investigation" into Tuesday'sevents that respects human rights, due process and the rule of law. Jammeh is one of Africa'smost vocal anti-gay leaders and has previously threatened to behead sexual minorities found inhis country. The U.S. government recently removed Gambia from a trade agreement in responseto human rights abuses.No major incidents to report.29 January A Guinean opposition leader has urged the international community to help monitorpresidential elections, which are due to take place in the West African country later this year,voicing concern of possible fraud and violence. Former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo hasaccused the country’s president, Alpha Conde, of using the country’s ongoing Ebola outbreak asa “pretext” for not setting a date for the presidential election. Diallo, who is the leader of theUnion of Democratic Forces in Guinea, has indicated that he will stand again in the upcomingelections, which are due to occur before December, when President Conde’s five-year mandateends. However no date for the presidential polls has been set, with Diallo disclosing that thepresident has so far been unwilling to hold talks with the opposition in order to lay out anelectoral calendar. During a visit to Washington to urge US support for his nation, Diallo stated“there is a huge risk of instability and violence if the elections are not transparent, because thepeople are not going to accept an electoral masquerade.” Diallo is now “…lobbying theinternational community to become engaged in the elections, because the president has said he44

Global Security Reportdoes not want any ‘foreign interference’ as he calls it,” pointing out that the President “hasalready refused international help, he has refused aid from the European Union to finance theelection…all that is aimed at one thing – he wants to organize an electoral masquerade to declarehimself re-elected.” The warning from comes as the International Crisis Group warned lastmonth “unless the government convenes a serious dialogue with the opposition it risks electoralviolence and exacerbating ethnic divisions.” It recommended that the President should“embrace the willingness of international partners such as the European Union, African Unionand UN to provide…support.” When asked about the elections, President Conde, who is Guinea’sfirst democratically elected president, stated last week on the sidelines of economic talks inDavos that he did not want to discuss the elections as he was preoccupied with the fight againstEbola. The Ebola outbreak in Guinea has killed 1,870 people and infected thousands of others,and has impacted the country’s already shaky economy.23 January Police in the capital city Conakry have confirmed that three people were killed after a grenadeexploded in a bar packed with soccer fans watching the country’s Africa Cup of Nations openeragainst Ivory Coast. A spokesman for the police, Mamadou Alpha Barry, confirmed the incident,stating “it was an accidental explosion” and that the man who set off the hand grenade hadhimself been badly injured.On the ground sources have reported that angry residents are blocking access for healthworkers to dozens of remote villages across Guinea, in what appears to be a sign that mistrustcontinues to exist and may threaten President Alpha Conde’s aim to eradicate Ebola from theWest African country by March. The worst Ebola outbreak on record began in December 2013,deep in the forests of southeastern Guinea, before it spread to neighboring countries. WhileGuinea, along with Liberia and Sierra Leone, have in recent week recorded a sharp fall ininfections, experts have revealed that some people still deny that the deadly disease exists.Officials have indicated that this persistent denial could prove difficult to trace those who hadbeen in contact with the infected and to change traditional behavior such as burial rituals, whichinvolve touching the dead. These steps are seen as critical in defeating the disease. Fode TassSylla, spokesman for the national committee for the fight against Ebola, “we are at a turningpoint. However, we cannot say that we have complete defeated the disease until we know whatis happening inside these reticent villages.” Sylla noted one case in which medical kits sent bythe government to schoolchildren were destroyed by villagers in Ourekaba, southern Guineawho believed that the kits had been sent in order to contaminate the children. In a separateincident, a police source disclosed that two security officials, who arrived to investigate reportsof a secret Ebola burial, were lynched last week by a crowd in Sinkine, in the Forecariah region,which is located 100 kilometres (62 miles) from the capital city Conakry. While officials havenoted that denial of the existence of Ebola has been seen in all three affected countries, withsome communities, particularly in Sierra Leone, being reluctant to change their behavior,officials have noted that the problem in Guinea appears to be more acute, with health workersstill being denied access to certain regions. Health experts also worry that some of the southernareas of Guinea lie close to the borders of Liberia and Sierra Leone and that imported cases couldreverse some of the significant progress achieved in those two countries in recent weeks.20 January Three priests from a Baptist church in Guinea have been beaten up and held hostage after localsmistook them for Ebola awareness campaigners. According to on the ground sources, thepriests had gone to the village of Kabac in Forecariah intending to spray insecticide on wells andpit latrines when they were attacked by villagers who suspected that they may have beenbringing the Ebola virus into the area. Reports have indicated that the priests were badly beatenand that their vehicle was set on fire. The angry villagers later went to the town council building,which they vandalized. The building was set on fire, forcing local officials to flee. While localreports have indicated that one council worker was killed by the crowd, this report has not beenindependently verified. There was further chaos when police arrested some of the residentsand the crowd attempted to prevent the detainees from being taken away. This is the secondsuch attack to take place in Forecariah this month. Earlier, residents attacked and killed twopolice officers that they had suspected of bringing the Ebola virus to the area.45

Global Security Report19 January Guinean President Alpha Conde announced Monday that his country will send some 500 troopsto join a UN peacekeeping mission in Mali. The President indicated that a “battalion of 450 –500 men is ready to leave in February” to join the MINUSMA force, stating that “Guinea and Maliare two lungs from one body and anything that concerns Mali concerns Guinea.” The presidentnoted that he was determined to do all he could in order to “help Mali recover the unity andintegrity of is territory.” In 2013, a UN peacekeeping force was set up in Mali as a successor tothe French-led force that intervened to drive out militants who had seized Mali’s vast northernregion. Despite several months of stabilization, the security situation in the West Africancountry has again destabilized, with jihadists carrying out regular attacks targeting soldiers andpeacekeepers. On Saturday, a UN peacekeeper was killed when militants attacked a UN camp.The attack came just six weeks after six peacekeepers were injured on 4 January when their cardrove over an explosive devise. The mission has lost forty-four troops since it was launched inJuly 2013, resulting in the UN Security Council in October calling for an end to attacks onpeacekeepers and stating that the UN MINUSMA force in the north should be beefed up to its fullplanned strength of 12,700 troops from its current level of 9,300.Guinean President Alpha Conde has urged the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cancel thecountry’s debts in order to help in its recovery, stating “the cancellation must concern bilateraland multilateral debt.” The president further indicated that he hopes the topic will come underfurther discussion at the next African Union (AU) meeting, which is due to be held in June. Antipovertyorganizations, the United Nations and the United States have all called on the IMF towipe out some of the debts of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three West African statesthat have been the worst affected by the Ebola outbreak. The US, the IMF’s largest stakeholder,has asked that the crisis lender wipe out around a fifth of the US $480 million owed it by thethree West African nations. Cancelling the debt of the three nations would free resources torestart their economic activities. Both Liberia and Sierra Leone were already weakened priorto the outbreak as they were just recovering from devastating conflicts.16 January Guinea’s Health Minister announced Friday that all schools across the country will reopen onMonday, after being closed last year amidst the Ebola outbreak. While on a visit to Accra, Ghana,to attend the economic Community of West African States summit, Health Minister Remy Lamahdisclosed that the decision was made to reopen schools “because the situation has improved.”The announcement comes in the wake of Liberia announcing that schools will be reopened atthe start of next month. The health minister in Sierra Leone however has indicated that schoolswill remain closed. According to Foday Sawi Lahai, officials in Sierra Leone are currently“…monitoring the situation and would take a decision after that.” Adding “we have importedthermometers to be used for surveillance in the schools. Once that is done and the number ofcases keep falling, we would consider reopening schools.”14 January In the latest violence spurred by the deadly Ebola virus, police officials reported Wednesdaythat two men were killed and their bodies burned by an angry mob convinced that the victimshad infected a local with Ebola. On the grounds sources have reported that residents of thewestern village of Dar-es-Salaam attacked a group of three police officers and their driver whohad stopped there on Saturday while on their way to attend a funeral. According to policeCommissioner Boubacar Kasse, during their visit, one in the group gave a sedative to a localhealer, who was suffering from an described illness. After the healer died, his wife called forhelp from the local population, who responded violently. According to Kasse, the villagersgrabbed machetes and clubs and beat the victims to death. They later set their bodies andvehicle on fire. The other police officers who survived the attack are currently recovering inhospital. Violent reactions to the Ebola virus have frequently occurred in Guinea, particularlyin the southern region of the country, where tensions between local groups and the centralgovernment remain high. The most violent attack occurred September 2014 in thesouthwestern village of Womey when eight members of an Ebola prevention campaign werekilled by locals.46

Global Security ReportGuinea-Bissau1 January Four officers suspected of participating in a failed military coup against Gambia's PresidentYahya Jammeh have taken refuge in Guinea-Bissau. They arrived Wednesday evening in Bissauand turned themselves in to military authorities, according to an anonymous military source.The source did not explain how the fugitives had reached Guinea-Bissau, which is to the southof Gambia, but separated by Senegal. A group of heavily armed men led by an army deserterattacked the presidential palace in the Gambian capital Banjul before dawn on Tuesday, butwere repelled by forces loyal to Jammeh. Jammeh was on a private visit abroad at the time ofthe coup attempt. Three suspects, including the alleged ringleader identified as Lamin Sannehwere killed.Ivory Coast10 January The Ivory Coast’s defense ministry announced Saturday that two Ivory Coast troops were killedin a night attack on army positions near the Liberian border. A statement released by theministry disclosed that twenty “armed, unidentified” men attacked security positions in thewestern town of Grabo at around 3:00 AM (0300 GMT). Sources have indicated that they wereseen off following an hour of fighting with soldiers and police. Meanwhile another groupattacked army positions in the village of Dahoyke, which is also located near the border. In thatattack, two soldiers and one of the assailants were killed. According to the defense ministry, thesituation has since been brought under control. Due in part to ongoing ethnic tensions, thewestern region of the Ivory Coast remains the most unstable area in the country and has beenaffected by repeated deadly attacks over the past two years. The Ivory Coast’s governmentblamed a February 2014 clash on “unidentified people from Liberia,” which resulted in denialsfrom the government in Monrovia and accusations that the attacks are “purely Ivorian.” Theattack on Grabo in February left at least four people dead, including three civilians.6 January On Tuesday, the first defendants in the trial of the Ivory Coast’s former first lady Simone Gbagboand 82 others accused of fomenting deadly post-election violence, were called to the stand. Sixof the accused were summoned following a recess in the trial, which began 26 December inAbidjan. They were presented as “militias” who are loyal to former President Laurent Gbagboand his wife. The first defendant called to the stand was identified as Jean-Marius Keipo. MrKeipo has been charged with “damage to national defense, constituting armed groups,participation in an insurrectional movement (and) disturbing the peace,” as well as “tribalism”and “xenophobia.” Once the charges were read, Mr Keipo told the court “I don’t recognize thestatements. I am a victim of this crisis.” While Mrs Gbagbo, along with some of the otherdefendants, were not present in court on Tuesday, the six accused were brought forward inhandcuffs and fourteen witnesses were called to give evidence. Mrs Gbagbo and colleagues fromthe Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) party are accused of “attempting to undermine the securitystate,” by launching violence to support Laurent Gbagbo in a bid to keep power after he wasdefeated in elections in November 2010. Fighting in the commercial capital Abidjan claimed atleast 3,000 lives before the Gbagbo’s were arrested in April 2011. Laurent Gbagbo was latertransferred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, where he currently facestrial for crimes against humanity during the post-electoral conflict. While the ICC has also issuedan arrest warrant for Simone Gbagbo, President Ouattara’s government has argued that to tryher at home will be a major step towards national reconciliation. The proceedings are alsowidely seen as a test of the Ivory Coast’s justice system.Liberia31 January Liberia has delayed planned re-opening of schools, with officials indicating that they are not yetfully prepared to prevent the spread of Ebola. Schools, which were closed in July, had been dueto open on Monday however teaching will now begin on 16 February. On the ground sourceshave reported that several schools were not prepared to prevent Ebola infection as they lackedchlorinated water for hand-washing and thermometers to check pupils don’t have fever.47

Global Security Report26 January Liberia’s president on Monday announced the closure of an Ebola treatment facility as thespread of the disease has slowed in the West African country. In a speech before the nationalparliament, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf stated “Lofa, the epicenter of the virus, has had nonew cases for over 70 days,” adding “the Ebola Treatment Unit in Foya is closed,” and that thecountry can now “…take pride that 13 of 15…counties have not reported new cases for 21 days.”The President however did stress that the outbreak was not yet over, stating “we know we mustcontinue relentlessly on the practices and protocols that have brought us this far. We must makea successful transition from treatment to prevention by building our health system. But fromnow lets take pride and rejoice in our collective success.” Liberia, which was once the worstaffected by the Ebola outbreak, hopes to have no new cases by the end of next month. Accordingto the latest figures, the number of registered cases in Liberia is now down to just five, againsta peak of more than 300 a week in August and September of last year.23 January According to a senior health official, Liberia, which was once the epicenter of West Africa’sdeadly Ebola outbreak, has just five remaining confirmed cases of the deadly disease,highlighting the country’s success in halting new infections. Deputy Health Minister TolbertNyenswah, who heads Liberia’s Ebola taskforce stated Friday “we have five confirmed Ebolacases in Liberia as of today,” adding “it means that we are going down to zero, if everything goeswell, if other people don’t get sick in other places.” According to the Deputy Health Minister,three of the remaining cases are in the capital city Monrovia while the other two are in Bomiand Grand Cape Mount Counties. The worst Ebola outbreak on record has killed more than8,600 people in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. While last year, Liberia was at the height ofthe outbreak, as hospitals didn’t have enough beds for new patients, forcing them to turn awayvictims and bodies left in the streets, a massive international response, which included thedeployment of hundreds of US troops to build treatment centers, along with public awarenesscampaigns, have contributed to a steep decline in infection rates.11 January The Liberian government on Sunday announced that it is investigating reports of fighting nearits border with neighboring Ivory Coast, which reportedly led to the death of two Ivoriansoldiers. On Saturday, Ivorian State media reported that two soldiers have been killed in a raidon military posts in the southwestern region of the country. According to the Ivorian PressAgency, the attack began early Saturday morning in the town of Grabo, near the border withLiberia. The soldiers were killed in the village of Dahioke, which is located 20 kilometres (12miles) outside the town. On Sunday, The Liberian government’s chief spokesman InformationMinister Lewis Brown disclosed, “the Government of Liberia is concerned about new reports ofrecent attacks in border towns and villages of Cote D’Ivoire. Consistent with the policies of goodneighborliness and a commitment to regional peace and security, the relevant Liberian securityagencies are seriously investigating these reports as well as engaging their counterparts inAbidjan.” The Minister added that the Liberian government is fully committed to working withand supporting Ivorian authorities and international partners in their bid to strengthen bordersecurity, regional peace and stability. The western region of the Ivory Coast was the hardest hitduring the country’s 2010 – 2011 postelection violence, which erupted after former PresidentLaurent Gbagbo refused to concede defeat to his successor, Alassane Ouattara. Pro-Gbagbofighters, along with civilians, later fled into neighboring Liberia, and raids targeting the newarmy have occurred sporadically since then. A raid in June 2012 killed seven UN peacekeepersand at least ten civilians. Last February, just a year after the two countries agreed to reopentheir respective borders, a similar attack killed four Ivorian soldiers. In recent years, gunmenfrom Liberia have carried out several assaults on towns near the border. The government andthe UN have blamed these attacks on allies of former president Laurent Gbagbo.5 January An official announced on Monday that Liberia is planning to reopen schools in February, sixmonths after the government ordered them closed because of the Ebola outbreak. PresidentEllen Johnson Sirleaf first made the announcement over the weekend, indicating that schoolswould reopen on 2 February. While officials have not specified whether the measure wouldapply to the entire education system, George Wuo, a director at the Education Ministry, hasdisclosed that authorities are currently assessing around 500 schools across the country forreopening. The school year was due to start in September 2014 however the government48

Global Security Reportdecided in August to keep students at home in a bid to prevent further spread of the deadlydisease.The lockdown in the northern Tonkolili district has been extended for two weeks as authoritiesincrease the fight to contain the spread of Ebola. The move comes as the Liberian governmentimposed “additional screening measures” at Freetown International Airport after two workersapparently were infected with the disease. According to Health Minister Dr Abubakarr Fofanah,the screening of workers at the airport in the capital Freetown will now be done “on a 24-hourbasis to detect any suspicion of Ebola on a worker or traveller.” According to Liberia’s NationalEbola Response Centre (NERC), “a case of Ebola was detected and confirmed by laboratory testson Friday involving a person who worked at the airport up to mid-December but had notworked since that time.” In a statement released by the NERC, another airport employee hadbeen in contact with the person and has not come to work since Christmas Day, adding “due tothese developments, additional measures have been put in place to enhance robustscreening…these include documentation of employees temperatures at the airport front gateand entry to the terminal.” Last month, a five-day lockdown had been declared by thegovernment across the badly-hit northern region of the country. During that period, more thanseventy cases of the deadly virus had been confirmed. Authorities in the region have confirmed“the lockdown is extended for another two weeks to intensify monitoring efforts by all sectorsin the district as we need this mopping up operation until January 17.” Authorities havedisclosed that some people had been “reluctant to comply with health rules such as latereporting of suspected Ebola cases and undertaking secret burials.”Mali29 January Mali’s president has pulled out of attending the African Union (AU) summit in order to visit therestive city of Gao following the deaths of protesters in violent demonstrations against theUnited Nations. According to aides, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita had been due to fly onThursday to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, a day ahead of a meeting of the 54-nation bloc,however he changed his plans following renewed violence in Mali’s restive north. In the wakeof protests in Gao, the UN has been forced to withdraw a plan to create a “temporary securityzone” in the northern town of Tabankort. Three people were killed Tuesday in the second dayof demonstrations against the UN. Witnesses described a large crowd of angry youths throwingstones and attempting to storm MINUSMA’s headquarters in Gao. Although MINSUMA officialsinitially denied being behind the deaths, they later indicated that an investigation would becarried out in order to establish its role in the violence.28 January Security sources reported Wednesday that an overnight attack in northern Mali by a progovernmentarmed group has killed a dozen people. According to a military source, “GATIAfighters, accompanied by suicide bombers, attacked a rebel Tuareg and anti-government Arabposition in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday near the town of Tabankort. There were adozen deaths in total,” adding “the situation is very volatile, and it is essential to calm thesituation.” A security source from the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali, MINUSMA, confirmedthe death toll, stating that two fighters blew themselves up while a third was killed before hewas able to detonate his explosives. GATIA is the commonly used name for the pro-governmentImghad and Allies Tuareg Self-Defense Group. Tabankort is part of a large swathe of desertwhere the Tuareg separatist movement wants to create its homeland. The town, which islocated northwest of the rebel stronghold of Kidal, is controlled by pro-government militias thathave clashed over the past month with armed rebels, leading to the deaths of civilians andfighters.27 January Government sources have disclosed that three people were killed in northern Mali on Tuesdayin a demonstration against the United Nations mission deployed in the West African country.Eyewitnesses have described how violence erupted as a huge crowd of angry youths, gatheringfor a second day outside the MINUSMA headquarters in the city of Gao, threw stones andattempted to storm the building. An official in the ministry for security and civil protection49

Global Security Reportconfirmed the deaths, adding that the situation remained “very tense.” According to ArnaudAkodjenou, deputy representative of the MINUSMA force, “our officers were besieged byprotesters this morning, but I can tell you that no one from MINUSMA fired on thedemonstrators. Absolutely no order was given to use weapons,” adding “we are in very closecontact with the Malian authorities.”26 January One of Mali’s most senior military officers has survived an assassination attempt in the capitalcity Bamako. On Monday, General Mohamed Ould Meydou, adviser to the chief of staff of Mali’sarmy, was shot by unknown gunmen however he was only lightly wounded in the incident.According to a source, General Meydou was well enough to leave hospital after receivingtreatment on Monday evening. It remains unclear who targeted General Meydou, an ethnic Arabwho remained loyal to the Bamako government when Tuareg and Arab rebels took up arms in2012.25 January At least two soldiers were killed Sunday and three others wounded in an ambush in Mali’s north.According to Col. Souleymane Maiga, the troops were on their way to the town of Douekire onSunday to provide security for a weekly market when attackers opened fire. While there wasno immediate claim of responsibility for the attack, which occurred 45 kilometres (30 miles)west of the city of Timbuktu, several armed groups are known to operate in the northern regionof the country.23 January The separatist Tuareg movement in Mali has broken off cooperation with the UN peacekeepingmission and has threatened to boycott the next round of peace talks after a clash left several ofits fighters dead. At a press conference held in Rabat, Morocco, Mossa Ag Attaher stated that thepeacekeeping mission was siding with the Malian government and its allied militias after one ofthe mission’s attack helicopters killed seven separatist fighters near the remote desert town ofTabancort on Tuesday. The UN has maintained that their forces came under fire from Attaher’sNational Movement for the Liberation of Azawad near Tabancort and so they responded. AgAttaher confirmed that the Tuareg movement has “…decided to end all cooperation withMINUSMA,” adding “today it is more urgent than ever to review the rule of the MINUSMA inMali.” He further indicated that his movement would only participate in the next round of peacetalks, which are due to take place in Algeria on 8 February, if government troops withdrew fromthe north. In a statement released Friday, MINUSMA officials called on all parties to exerciserestraint and to create a climate of peace and trust in order to ensure the success of the nextround of peace talks.21 January Tuareg separatist protesters in Mali stated Wednesday that they have pushed the UN’s missionfrom an airfield in Kidal, burning generators and tearing down tents. Tuareg protester MoussaAg Ali stated that they chased soldiers from the airfield and set fire to at least two generators,adding that the peacekeepers “…fled to their camp.” Another protester, Ismail Ah Rhissa,indicated that demonstrators tore down tends that shelter some of the UN mission, adding “thesoldiers of MINUSMA fired tear gas and warning shots, but they could not stop us.” A deputyspokesman for the UN secretary-general, Farhan Haq, told reporters in New York that “thedemonstrations are now ended.” He declined to provide any further details. The protests comea day after a Dutch attack helicopter with the UN mission fired upon a car near the town of Gao,killing four rebels on Tuesday. That incident occurred near Tabancort, which is located northof the town of Gao. It is the first time that the UN mission has carried out such attacks.20 January According to sources, Dutch United Nations peacekeepers carried out an air strike on Tuaregrebel forces in the northern region of Mali on Tuesday, the first such engagement by Dutchforces serving in the UN mission in Mali, known as MINUSMA. Diplomatic sources havedisclosed that the strike was carried out as MNLA separatist rebels advanced on the town ofTabankort, where some rebel militia fighters are based. A contingent of UN peacekeepers arealso based in the town, tasked with protecting the local civilians. MNLA spokesman Moussa AgAcharatoumane confirmed the strike, stating that four rebels were killed and several othersinjured. The UN mission, which includes 380 troops and four Apache helicopter gunships fromthe Netherlands, has not commented on the strike. Update (21 January) - Authorities in50

Global Security Reportnorthern Mali confirmed Wednesday that at least four rebels are dead after a Dutch attackhelicopter with the UN mission fired upon their car. Officials confirmed that the attack occurrednear the town of Tabankort, north of the town of Gao. It is the first time that MINUSMA hascarried out such air strikes. In a statement released by the UN mission, officials indicated thatits forces had to fire after they came under “direct heavy fire,” adding that the action was in linewith its mandate to use force to protect civilian, urging the rebels to respect a cease-fire.19 January The Malian government and the United Nations have declared Mali Ebola-free after the countrycompleted 42-days without any new cases of the deadly virus. Health Minister Ousmane Konehas confirmed that no new cases had been registered since 6 December when the last Ebolapatient tested negative for the deadly disease. In accordance with World Health Organization(WHO) recommendations, the spread of the Ebola virus could be declared over after 42 dayswithout any new cases being reported. Mali’s Health Minister saluted Malian authorities andthe different players in the anti-Ebola fight for “weeks of intense work” that led to the result. Healso praised the country’s health workers and its partners for their efforts and urged thatdespite being declared Ebola-free, basic hygiene and protective behavior measures must be keptup. Seven people died of Ebola in Mali, with the first fatality occurring in October last year, whena two-year-old girl travelled from neighboring Guinea to Mali to stay with relatives. Shortlyafterwards, a Muslim cleric, also from Guinea, died in the capital city Bamako. He hadtransmitted the virus, directly or indirectly, to seven other people, five of whom died. The lastpatient to be treated for Ebola in Mali made a full recovery and was discharged from hospital inearly December. In order to be declared Ebola-free, countries must report no new cases for 42days – or two incubation periods of 21 days – in order to be declared Ebola-free. According tothe latest figures released by the WHO, a total of 21,296 people have so far been infected withEbola since the world’s worst-ever outbreak began just over a year ago.17 January Suspected Islamist militants attacked a UN base in northern Mali with car bombs and rocketson Saturday, killing one Chadian member of the UN peacekeeping mission and woundinganother. According to officials, gunfire erupted around the area of the UN camp in Kidal duringthe morning hours and was followed by the sound of rockets exploding. The shooting lastedaround 10 minutes. A statement released by the UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA) indicated thatthe peacekeeper was killed when a suicide bomber exploded his vehicle at a UN checkpointaround a kilometer from the peacekeepers’ camp. A second vehicle exploded at one of theentrances to the base. The statement further indicated that eight rockets were fired at the campbut only two of them landed inside, causing serious material damage. Arnauld Akodjenou,deputy UN special representative for Mali, has condemned the attack, stating, “such violencetargeting the UN peacekeeping forces is a serious crime. Those responsible must be brought tojustice.” Saturday’s attack came a day after at least two Malian soldiers were killed in centralMali.16 January At least two Malian soldiers were killed Friday in a jihadist attack on the town of Tenenkou incentral Mali. According to a UN military source, “several people from both sides” may have diedin the clash between troops and Islamist fighters in the town, which is located 470 kilometres(292 miles) north of the capital city Bamako. MINUSMA indicated that it had seen armed groupsheading towards the area on Friday, adding that the attack is in violation of the terms of anearlier ceasefire. Peace talks between Mali’s government and separatist groups on the future ofthe restive northern region are due to resume in Algiers soon.11 January Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita named a new slimmed-down government on Saturday,with cabinet members replaced in key defense and economic posts. The new government is thethird since President Keita took power less than two years ago and comes ahead of new peacetalks with separatists in the troubled northern region of the country. The government of newPrime Minister Modibo Keita was appointed by presidential decree published overnightSaturday after his predecessor resigned under pressure on Thursday. The new government has29 members in addition to the premier, in contrast to the 31 members in the previousadministration. Tieman Hubert Coulibaly, a former foreign minister, will take over the defenseand veterans portfolio while banker Mamadou Igor Diarra will become minister of economy and51

Global Security Reportfinance. Choguel Kokala Maiga will take over the digital economy and communication portfolio.A member of the Tuareg minority, Mohamed Ag Erlaf, is the new minister of the environment,sanitation and sustainable development. There was no change at the key foreign affairs andmines ministries. The newly formed government now faces many challenges as the countrycontinues to battle threats from militant groups that operate in the region. According to a closeassociate to the president, “this is a war government, but also a team that should make thereturn of peace in the north its priority.” An official close to the newly elected prime ministerhas disclosed that the new cabinet has been primarily tasked with taking on the seriouseconomic and financial problems that Mali continues to suffer, however noting that it alsorepresents “a team that must make the return of peace to the north its priority” within thenational reconciliation process.9 January In what is the latest in a string of attacks on foreign forces, seven UN peacekeepers werewounded by a blast that hit their vehicle near the airport in the northern Malian town of Kidalon Friday. UN officials have indicated that four of the soldiers were lightly wounded while threeothers suffered fractures. According to a witness, the troops involved in the attack wereSenegalese and the area to the east of the town has been cordoned off. The UN Mission hasindicated that an investigation is currently underway in order to establish if the vehicle hit aland mine or another kind of explosive device. UN peacekeepers have been deployed in Malisince mid-2013 however Islamist militants driven from the country’s desert region two yearsago by French forces have in recent months stepped up ambushes and bomb attacks, targetingUN and government troops. France has withdrawn troops from Mali in a bid to focus on abroader, Sahel-wide security operation against the militants, however diplomats have indicatedthat insurgents, some of who are linked to al-Qaeda’s regional wing, AQIM, have regrouped andappear to have received new training and weapons. A total of thirty-three UN peacekeepershave died and 100 more have been wounded in Mali. Over the past week, seven Malian soldierswere killed in a raid on a military camp near the Mauritanian border while six UN peacekeepersrom Niger were wounded by a roadside bomb.8 January On Thursday, Mali’s Prime Minister Moussa Mara resigned, more than a year after his party lostparliamentary elections. His resignation effectively means that the entire Malian governmentalso resigns. Mera, a former town planning minister, was appointed prime minister by PresidentIbrahim Boubacar Keita last April. He had failed to beat Keita in the 2013 presidential electionsand his Yelema party won just a single seat in parliamentary elections that year. Update (9January) – Late on Thursday, Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita named a former head ofgovernment, Modibo Keita, as the new prime minister, just hours after the previous governmentresigned. Modibo Keita, who has no relation to the president, was prime minister for threemonths in 2002 under then-President Alpha Oumar Konare. Last year, he headed thegovernment delegation in negotiations with separatists from the north of the country, whichtook place in Algeria.7 January On Wednesday, suspected Islamist militants killed one person in an attack in central Mali, justtwo days after eleven troops were killed in an assault on a nearby military base. According toon the ground sources, the latest attack took place in Djoura, a village located close to the borderwith Mauritania, and about 465 kilometres (290 miles) northeast of the capital Bamako. Asenior official in Djoura confirmed the attack, stating that after firing shots in the village andsetting fire to the town hall, the attackers fled north, shooting dead a civilian as they spedtowards Mauritania. A Malian military source also confirmed the report. Both sources haveblamed the latest attack on gunmen who stormed a Malian army base in Nampala on Monday.The military base is located 60 kilometres from Djoura.6 January France has deployed fighter jets to Mali where fresh attacks carried out by Islamist insurgentshave left several dead near the Mauritanian border and in the country’s northern area. Astatement released by the French Foreign Ministry on Tuesday indicated that Paris offered airsupport to its former colony including fighter jets, which were “deployed immediately tosupport Malian forces.” France has condemned the militant’s raid, which killed several localsoldiers.52

Global Security Report5 January According to a UN military source, at least eight people were killed in a gun attack Monday on aMalian army base located close to the Mauritanian border. The assault, which is reported tohave been claimed by al-Qaeda-linked militants, occurred at the base in Nampala, which islocated 530 kilometres (330 miles) northeast of the Malian capital Bamako, where armedgroups are known to operate. According to a source within UN’s MIUSMA mission in Mali,unidentified gunmen slipped into the camp “with relative ease” at about 0615 GMT and startedshooting, with Malian troops returning fire. Fighting went on for more than three and a halfhours, with attackers only retreating at 1100 GMT. The UN source added “reconnaissance andfighter planes from the French-led Barkhane operation overflew the Nampala area in theafternoon to intervene if necessary.” The attack is the deadliest in Mali since nine Nigerpeacekeepers were killed last October. Update (6 January) – AQIM has claimed responsibilityfor Monday’s attack, which occurred in central Mali. The incident was the closest the militantshave struck to the capital city Bamako, since a French-led war forced them from cities acrossthe northern region of the country nearly two years ago. Defense Ministry adviser Lt. Col.Diarran Kone has indicated that Mali’s forces were back in control of the areas by Monday night.The UN mission in Mali revealed Monday that at least six UN peacekeepers were wounded whentheir vehicle hit a roadside bomb in northern Mali on Sunday. The vehicle transporting troopsof the Niger contingent, which is part of the UN mission in Mali, was travelling on the roadbetween Asongo and Menaka in the Gao region. The soldiers who were wounded, three of themseriously, will be evacuated to the city of Gao for appropriate treatment. Two years after Franceled a UN-backed intervention in a bid to drive al-Qaeda-linked militants from towns they seizedin 2012, northern Mali remains highly volatile. Militants operating in the region have mounteda comeback and have targeted the Malian army and UN troops deployed in the region. Peacetalks have so far failed to deliver improvements on the ground.The US Homeland Security Department is ending Ebola-related airport screening proceduresfor travellers from Mali. Beginning Tuesday 6 January, travellers from Mali will no longer besubject to monitoring for possible symptoms of Ebola upon arrival. They will also no longer berequired to enter the US through one of five designated airports. According to HomelandSecurity and the Centers for Disease Control, the requirements are being lifted as two 21-dayincubation cycles have passed since the last Ebola patient in Mali had contact with someone notwearing personal protective equipment. There are currently no active Ebola cases in Mali. TheUS will maintain travel restrictions and monitoring for visitors coming from Guinea, Liberia andSierra Leone, which continue to be affected by the Ebola outbreak.4 January In a string of attacks that have highlighted persistent insecurity in the northern region of thecountry, the mayor of a town in northern Mali died on Saturday from wounds sustained in anambush that killed his son. The death of Aroudeyni Ag Hamatou, mayor of Anderaboucane,came as the United Nations mission in Mali expressed concern over human rights abuses andviolations of a shaky ceasefire between rebel and pro-government factions. According toofficials from Mali’s government, Ag Hamatou died as he was being flown by the UN to Bamakofor treatment. His son was killed and his driver injured when they were attacked on 1 Januaryby unknown gunmen, between Menaka and Anderaboucane in the region of Gao. A statementreleased by the government disclosed “the government reiterates its pledge to punish thoseresponsible for these crimes and fight against all forms of terrorism to restore peace andsecurity to the whole of Mali.”Mauritania16 January On Thursday, police in Mauritania used tear gas in a bid to disperse protesters after three antislaveryactivists were sentenced to two years in prison. Biram Ould Dah Ould Abeid, the runnerupin last year’s presidential elections and the head of an anti-slavery group, was convictedalong with one of his aides, Bilal Ramdane, and Djiby Sow, a civic and cultural rights campaigner.According to their defense team, the activists have been charged with “belonging to an illegalorganization, leading an unauthorized rally, and violence against the police.” Brahim Ould53

Global Security ReportEbetty, a defense lawyer for the three men has indicated that they “…are going to appeal” theguilty verdict. Seven others on trial for joining anti-slavery protests in November have beenreleased. In the wake of the sentencing, dozens of their supports stormed the courthouse andsurrounded the prosecutor’s office while others smashed the windows of the police van thatwas carrying the three. Police officials responded by firing tear gas. Private news agency Al-Akhbar has reported that at least four people were injured in the protests. A statement releasedby Amnesty International has condemned the police use of tear gas. The human rightsorganization has indicated that the activists were arrested while trying to educate people aboutand rights in Mauritania, where slave descendants are often forced to give up a portion of theircrops. Mauritania was the last country in the world to abolish slavery, in 1981, and since 2007,its practice has been officially designated as a crime punishable by up to ten years in prison.Campaigners however have indicated that the government has failed in the past to acknowledgethe extent of the trade.6 January Mauritania’s main opposition bloc has rejected a call for dialogue by President Mohamed OuldAbdel-Aziz. A statement released by the National Forum for Democracy and Unity (FNDU) onMonday night disclosed that the regime’s call for dialogue, which comes before a looming midtermSenate election, was “an insult to the Mauritanian people.” While the FNDU did expresskeenness on partaking in “serious dialogue” with the regime, it did accuse the latter of launchinga “shallow” bid for dialogue two months before elections “to only serve the interests of anauthoritarian agenda.” Earlier this week, President Abdel-Aziz called on forces from acrossMauritania’s political spectrum to engage in dialogue with the aim of “achieving the nations’best interest.” The FNDU boycotted last summer’s presidential elections in which Abdel-Azizwon a second term in office. Many local opposition parties indicated that their boycott of thevote was due to the government’s failure to provide guarantees for the poll’s transparency.Niger30 January A court in Niger has dropped charges against members of the political and social elite accusedof trafficking newborn babies. On Friday, a criminal court ruled that it did not have thejurisdiction to try the case. In their decision, the judges accepted the defense position that thestate needed to first establish the parentage of the allegedly trafficked children in a civil courtbefore criminal charges could be brought. Assistant state prosecutor Samna Chaibou hasindicated that his team has appealed against the ruling “so the case will immediately go beforethe court of appeal.” In June 2014, police arrested twenty people, including the wives of severalsenior politicians, stating that they wanted to question Hama Amadou, who is seen as being themain challenger to President Mahamadou Issoufou. Protesting his innocence, Amadou later fledthe West African country. According to the prosecution, around thirty children were born towomen in neighboring Nigeria for the sole purpose of being sold to wealthy couples in Niger.The accused, including Hama’s wife, were charged with “supposition of a child” – the act offalsely claiming parenthood of a child. It remains unclear if an arrest warrant against Hama,which was issued after he fled the country, has been lifted. He was also stripped of his positionas parliament speaker.26 January Nigerien President Mahamadou Issoufou announced that his country and neighboring Algeriaare set to “pool” their resources in order to tackle the rising threat posed by jihadist groups thatoperate across the Sahel region. Speaking shortly after holding a meeting with his Algeriancounterpart, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, President Issoufou stated “we have agreed to mobilize andpool our operational capabilities and intelligence to deal with terrorist threats and criminalorganizations,” adding “Algeria and Niger share a 1,000 kilometer (600 mile) border and havelarge desert areas that need securing.” According to sources, the two leaders discussed thesituation in neighboring Libya, which has been rocked by fierce fighting between troops loyal tothe internationally recognized government and mainly Islamist militias, as well as the situationin Mali. Niger was one of five Sahel countries to call for international intervention in Libya whileAlgeria has called for national dialogue and the strengthening of democratic institutions in theNorth African nation.54

Global Security Report20 January A regional summit opened in Niger on Tuesday aimed at stopping Boko Haram as the militantgroup steps up attacks both in Nigeria and in neighboring countries. Speaking at the talks inNiamey, Niger’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Bazoum indicated, “the increase in strength of BokoHaram reflects our slowness and our inability to put up a robust response,” adding “we arewatching, as was the case in Mali, the loss of sovereignty in Nigeria over large tracts of itsterritory and the exporting of the violence to neighboring countries.” Ministers from Benin,Cameroon, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Niger and Nigeria attended talks, along withrepresentatives from the European Union, the United States, China and several other countries.Leaders from both Chad and Ghana have called for a unified effort in confronting the Islamistgroup, whose six-year insurgency has left 13,000 dead and forced 1.5 million from their homessince it began in 2009. Chad on Saturday deployed a convoy of troops and 400 military vehiclesinto neighboring Cameroon to fight Boko Haram.19 January Police officials revealed Monday that forty-five churches were torched over the weekend inNiger’s capital city during deadly protests over the publication of a Prophet Mohammad cartoonby the French satirical weekly magazine Charlie Hebdo. Speaking at a press conference, AdilyToro, a spokesman for the national police, disclosed that the protests, which left five people deadand 128 people injured in Niamey, also saw a Christian school and orphanage set on fire. Hefurther indicated that “the French flag was burned,” and that 189 people, including two minors,were arrested by police. Demonstrators also pillaged and burned numerous premises, includingfive hotels and 36 bars. On Sunday some 300 protesters in Niamey defied a ban on furtherdemonstrations, throwing stones at police who tear-gassed them. The governor of the capital,Hamidou Garba, indicated that 90 people were arrested, with local media reporting that thosedetained included opposition leaders. Similar unrest sparked by the French satirical weekly,which was targeted by terrorists on 7 January, saw five people killed in the southern Nigeriencity of Zinder, where 45 were also wounded. Niger has declared three days of mourning.17 January In a second day of violent protests in Niger over the depiction of the Prophet Mohammad on thecover of France’s Charlie Hebdo weekly magazine, rioters torched at least eight churches inNiamey on Saturday. On the ground sources have reported that bars, hotels and variousbusinesses under non-Muslim ownership or bearing signs of French companies in Niger’scapital city were also targeted. By Saturday evening, calm returned to the capital city, wherepolice were stationed outside the city’s cathedral and other religious buildings. On Friday, angryprotests left four people dead and around 45 injured in Niger’s second largest city Zinder.According to a Western security source, around 255 Christians were placed under militaryprotection in Zinder on Saturday, sheltered in barracks. Another 70 had sought refuge in anevangelical church protected by the police. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, whosecountry has defended the Charlie Hebdo cover as freedom of expression, condemned “the useof violence, today in Niamey and yesterday in Zinder.”16 January Four people were killed Friday after protests, over the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdopublishing more cartoon images of the Prophet Mohammad a week after Islamist gunmen shotdead twelve people at its office in Paris, turned violent in Niger. The Niger governmentconfirmed that four people were killed as police clashed with a crowd that attacked a Frenchcultural center and set churches ablaze. Protesters in Niger’s second-largest city of Zinder inthe southern region of the country set French flags ablaze and attacked Christian shops withclubs and Molotov cocktails while police responded with tear gas. According to Interior MinisterHassoumi Massaoudou, three civilians were killed, including two who were shot by policeduring an attack on their station. A police officer was run over and killed while 45 other peoplesustained injuries. Speaking on state television, the Minister further indicated “Zinderexperienced a quasi-insurrectional situation, a spontaneous protest of a criminal nature,”adding “I would like to reassure Christians that the state is here to defend those living in Nigerat all costs.” Witnesses reported that a crowd of mostly youths ransacked the French culturalcenter as well as the homes of police officers and the local headquarters of PresidentMahamadou Issoufou’s party. Protests also erupted in Algeria and Pakistan, resulting in severalinjuries. In Pakistan, police fired tear gas and water cannons at about 200 protesters outsidethe French consulate in the southern port city of Karachi while in Algeria, police clashed with55

Global Security Reportdemonstrators in Algiers after rioting broke out at the end of a protest against the publicationof the French cartoons. On the ground sources have reported that several officers were injuredas small groups of protesters threw rocks, fireworks and bottles at security forces around thewaterfront of the Algerian capital. Elsewhere, peaceful marches were held after Friday prayersin the capital cities of former French colonies, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. While last week,the presidents of Niger, Mali and Senegal marched alongside more than a million French citizensin a bid to show solidarity with the victims of the Paris attack, in an indication of the shiftingmood, Senegalese President Macky Sall stated late on Thursday “freedom of the press shouldnot, in our view, head in the direction of a totally pointless provocation.”14 January On Wednesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) warned about the plight oftens of thousands of refugees who have fled to Niger in a bid to escape the on going violence innortheastern Nigeria. According to Red Cross spokesman Daddy Rabiou, “it’s a very worryingsituation,” adding that last year, the agency provided food for more than 45,000 people. In astatement released by the head of the ICRC mission in Niger, Loukas Petridis disclosed “manywere injured, many others were sick and still others had lost contact with their families,” adding“most have been directly affected by the violence and have lost their property and theirlivelihoods.” Most of the refugees have settled in the arid southeastern region of Diffa, wherethe United Nations says droughts and floods have exacerbated the food crisis. Located 1,500kilometers (900 miles) east of Niamey, the increasing insecurity in Nigeria has also cut off theregion from its Nigerian supply sources. Officials at the Red Cross have also warned about thehigh risk of disease and infection due to the poor living conditions for many of those who havefled Boko Haram’s violence in northeastern region. As a result of this ongoing violence, most ofthe refugees have shown no signs of wanting to return home. According to the United Nations,since 2013, 115,000 people have fled Nigeria, where since 2009 Boko Haram has been wagingan increasingly bloody insurgency.6 January Nigerien officials have disclosed that they will not be involved in any attempts to retake the keynortheastern Nigerian town of Baga from Boko Haram. Niger’s Foreign Minister MohamedBazoum disclosed “we have 50 soldiers there and decided to withdraw them after Boko Haramcaptured Malam Fatori town in October and continued to operate in the area with impunity…Asyou know, Baga is under (the control of) Boko Haram terrorists and unless the town isrecaptured form them, we will not send back our troops.” The Foreign Minister further addedthat Nigerien officials “…are still determined to work with our neighbors Cameroon, Chad andNigeria to contain the situation – it is a problem for us all.” Niger’s decision is clearly a blow toNigeria, which had previously indicated that the presence of a multinational task force in thearea would help defeat Boko Haram. The withdrawal of the troops from Niger also effectivelymeans that Nigeria’s neighbor now has no forces directly involved in tackling Boko Haram. Chadhas also withdrawn its forces.5 January The mayor of a border town in Niger has revealed that towns in the country are living in fearfollowing the advance of Boko Haram into neighboring northeastern Nigeria. According toHankaraou Biri Kassoum, the mayor of one border town in Niger, “nearly all the villages and allthe big towns in Nigeria near to Niger are now under Boko Haram’s control. We are living infear of attacks from the Islamists.” The mayor further noted that in October, after the militantgroup overran Malam Fatori, a town in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state located just twokilometres (1.3 miles) from the border with Niger, Boko Haram militants “fired towards Nigerand our army responded with two bouts of cannon fire.” According to the mayor, “we can seethe jihadists’ black flag flying on the other side of the border…one day these people are going towant to attack us so they can gauge the strength of our army.” In October, Boko Haram militantsoverran two Nigerian towns near Niger after fierce fighting with the Nigerian army. OnSaturday, in one of its boldest moves yet, the militant group seized control of a Nigerian militarybase in a series of raids near Lake Chad, which sent soldiers and local civilians fleeing the region.Two of the defendants in a baby trafficking case in Niger have been brought before prosecutors,accused of trying to leave the capital during their trial. According to a defense lawyer, HadizaAmadou, wife of former parliament speaker Hama Amadou, was arrested while travelling to her56

Global Security Reporthome region in western Niger. A co-defendant, former bank manager Moussa Haitou, was alsodetained while en route to his home village, which is located south of the capital Niamey. Bothwere released on Monday after two days in custody. A hearing has been set for 16 January. Thepair are amongst around twenty other senior political, military and business figures who havebeen charged over the trafficking of around thirty babies from neighboring Nigeria. Amongstthe accused is the former parliamentary speaker who is being tried in absence after he fled toFrance last year.1 January French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian paid a surprise visit to northern Niger Thursday, tovisit a base being built to combat the growing flow of weapons and jihadists from neighbouringLibya. Le Drian travelled from Chad to Madama, a desert outpost about 100 kilometres fromLibya, where he saw in the New Year with troops at a French base. Madama is situated on theroute used by jihadists and arms smugglers in southern Libya to reach northern Mali and Niger.In an address to French soldiers in Chad's capital N'Djamena the previous day, Le Drian calledon the international community to act to prevent Libya from becoming a "sanctuary forterrorists." Madama will serve as a forward base for French counterterrorist operations in theSahel.Nigeria31 January On Saturday, Chadian jets bombed the Nigerian town of Gamboru in a raid that targeted BokoHaram. According to security sources, an initial raid was carried out around midday by twofighter jets on the town in Nigeria’s far northeast along the border with Cameroon. It wasfollowed by further bombings of areas around the town. According to a Cameroonian securitysource, the raids were aimed at “allowing Chadian soldiers to enter Gamboru.” Details ondamage of casualties were not immediately clear. Boko Haram militants overran the townseveral months ago as part of its campaign to seize territory in the region and to create anIslamic state.30 January Nigeria’s main opposition party has urged international monitors to press for access after itaccused the government of blocking foreign journalists from covering next month’s elections.The All Progressives Congress (APC) party has claimed that there has been a “systematic denialof visas” by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) administration of President Goodluck Jonathan.According to APC spokesman Lai Mohammed, “a regime that has nothing to hide or fear will nothesitate to allow international coverage of what is undoubtedly one of the most importantelections in the world this year.” He further stated “information reaching us indicates that mostof the foreign journalists who applied for visas to travel to Nigeria from different parts of theworld for the elections have been kept in abeyance under the guise of security clearance,” adding“this is totally unacceptable and it is another indication that this administration has a lot ofskeletons in its cupboard as far as the forthcoming elections are concerned.” The APC has calledon local and international election observers to take up this matter with government. Theopposition also alleges that the PDP is attempting to “scuttle” the vote with a smear campaignon its candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, and through the courts over fearsthat it will loose. The Nigerian government has not made any comments on the visa issue.29 January Youths angry at President Goodluck Jonathan’s failure to fight Islamic extremists threw stonesat the president’s convoy in the eastern city of Yola on Thursday, breaking windshields andwindows on several vehicles. In Yola, soldiers guarded billboards and posters of the president,with protesters shouting that the troops should instead be fighting Boko Haram insurgents.Yola, the capital of Adamawa state, is housing tens of thousands of people who have been drivenfrom their homes as a result of Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency. The state has also beenaffected by Boko Haram’s violence and was part of the state of emergency. On the groundsources have reported that police used tear gas in order to disperse the crowds. Similar reportshave emerged of the Nigerian leader being met by stone-throwing crowds in Jalingo, the capitalof neighboring Taraba state.57

Global Security ReportMilitary officials disclosed Thursday that Nigerian fighter jets have bombed the northeasterntown of Malam Fatori, which is controlled by Boko Haram militants. Witnesses and mediareports have indicated that troops and air force planes from neighboring Chad were involved inthe operation, which occurred on Nigerian soil, however officials in Abuja have neitherconfirmed nor denied these claims. Defense spokesman Chris Olukolade did disclose “MalamFatori is within the area of operation covered by the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) ofwhich Chad has always been a part,” adding “the Nigerian air force has also been conducting(an) air mission there for two days now….It is all part of the ongoing efforts against terrorism.”Residents in the town of Bosso, which lies next to Malam Fatori however across the border inNiger, reported that the bombardment began early on Wednesday and lasted for several hours.According to one Bosso resident, “at around 8:00 am (0700 GMT) we started seeing threemilitary jets encircling Malam Fatori and soon after (they) began dropping bombs.” There wasno initial word on casualties or whether Boko Haram fighters had fled the area as reaching localsinside Malam Fatori is difficult due to the collapse of the mobile phone network on the Nigerianside of the border. The authorities in N’Djamena have also not commented on their allegedinvolvement in the operation however if an aerial bombardment inside Nigeria by the Chadianair force is confirmed, this would mark a major development in bilateral security cooperation.While it remains unclear whether Chadian troops have begun to operate in Nigeria, securitysources have indicated that soldiers from Chad had arrived in neighboring Cameroon ahead ofan expected campaign against the militant group. According to a Cameroonian security source,“the first Chadian soldiers were deployed yesterday (Wednesday) in Fotokol,” which is locatedjust 500 meters (03. Miles) from the Nigerian town of Gamboru, which is also currentlycontrolled by Boko haram. A senior Cameroonian official has indicated that the deployment waspart of “preliminary action” for the Chadian army to take on Boko Haram alongside troops fromYaoundé.28 January Amnesty International officials have claimed that Nigeria’s military top brass had been warnedof brutal Boko Haram attacks on the northeastern towns of Baga and Monguno however theyfailed to take action. The 3 January attack on Baga is feared to have killed hundreds while thetakeover of Monguno last weekend has been seen as a major setback for the security forces.Amnesty officials have now indicated that they have received information from senior militaryofficers and other sources indicating that defense officials were told about Boko Haram’s plansto attack both towns but did not act on requests to deploy reinforcements. According toAmnesty’s Africa director Netsanet Belay, “it is clear from this evidence that Nigeria’s militaryleadership woefully and repeatedly failed in their duty to protect civilians of Baga and Mongunodespite repeated warnings about an impending threat posed by Boko Haram.” In regards to theattack on Baga, Amnesty officials indicated that troops in the town had reported a build-up ofinsurgent fighters in the area before the attack, adding that according to military and localsources, the militants had warned civilians about an impending attack, which caused severalhundred residents to flee. A Monguno resident was quoted as saying that residents were alsowarned about a looming Boko Haram offensive and that this information was passed on to themilitary however no action was taken. While Defense spokesman Chris Olukolade has notcommented on these allegations, the military has repeatedly described Amnesty as anunreliable organization with a political agenda after the organization made similar accusationsin the past. Amnesty made similar accusations pertaining to the 14 April attack in Chibok, whichsaw Boko Haram kidnap more than 200 schoolgirls.The United Nations envoy for the Sahel region disclosed Wednesday that Nigeria must acceptthat it cannot defeat Boko Haram fighters alone and must instead work with regional armies ina new multinational force. The statement comes in the wake of Nigerian security officials rulingout earlier this month the need for a United Nations or African Union-backed force to fight BokoHaram, stating that the country and its partners could handle the threat. Speaking in theEthiopian capital, where the African Union (AU) is preparing for leaders of the 54-member blocto meet for a summit on Friday, Hiroute Guebre Sellassie stated “Nigeria cannot handle theproblem alone, Boko Haram is not only confined to Nigeria….We see a flood of refugees to Niger,Cameroon and even Chad.” She added that “the Sahel region is increasingly affected,” andwarned of a possible training camp in northern Mali. Despite having the largest army in West58

Global Security ReportAfrica, the Nigerian military has come under criticism both at home and abroad for failing tostop the advance of Boko Haram. The AU is expected on Friday to discuss a proposed regionalforce of some 3,000 troops that would include soldiers from Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger andNigeria.President Goodluck Jonathan took his re-election campaign to the Niger Delta on Wednesday,as victory in the key region will help determine the winner of next month’s elections. Thepresident visited Port Harcourt, the capital of Rivers State, which is controlled by the oppositionand which is seen as a pivotal battleground in the upcoming elections. Thousands of peoplearrived at the 40,000-seat stadium where the president is expected to address a rally under tightsecurity. River State was previously run by Jonathan’s People Democratic Party (PDP) until thedefection of its governor Rotimi Ameachie, who in late 2013 switched to the main oppositionAll Progressives Congress (APC) party. Since then, the state has seen tensions rise, with violenceerupting between supporters of the two parties. As a southerner and Christian fromneighboring Bayelsa state, the president would normally expect widespread support fromRivers state, however an apparent momentum for the APC on the campaign trail, coupled withanalysts predicting that the party could even seize power, has given added importance tocontrolling the major urban center. Political commentator Chris Ngwodo has indicated thatregaining control of Rivers State, which has traditionally been held by the ruling party, is vitalfor the President and could help determine the outcome of the election, noting “losing Rivers isgoing to be a very, very significant loss in terms of votes, in terms of sheer numbers…and willadd to the APC’s national strength…It (the APC) already controls Lagos and Kano. It would bedisastrous for the PDP.”27 January The European Union (EU) announced Tuesday that it will deploy ninety observers across thecountry for the upcoming presidential elections, noting however that observers will not bedeployed to the northeastern region of Nigeria. The head of a EU election monitoring mission,Santiago Fisas, has disclosed that staff deployed to observe polling in Nigeria would not evenattempt to travel to the northeast, stating “the present situation (does not) allow us to go to thenortheast.” Nigerian election officials have already conceded that voting in much of the regionwill be impossible, as Boko Haram controls large areas of the territory, particularly in its historicstronghold of Borno state.Dozens of people have been killed and many others forced to flee into the mountains after arenewed series of Boko Haram attacks in northeastern Nigeria. According to a lawmaker andrelief agency official, the attacks targeted the Michika area in northeastern Adamawa state, withsources reporting that bodies littered the streets in several villages. Adamu Kamale, whorepresents the Michika district in the Adamawa state government, disclosed that over the pasttwo weeks, Boko Haram gunmen have been going “door-to-door, killing people, including theold.” It remains unclear what sparked the latest atrocities. Mohammed Kanar, northeastcoordinator for the National Emergency Management Agency, confirmed the raids in Michika.Meanwhile police in the northeastern town of Potiskum have disclosed that they have arresteda bomb-maker linked to several recent Boko Haram suicide attacks. Police officials havedisclosed that an explosives manufacturer, who was identified only as Ba’na and who is in hismid-thirties, was picked up after three weeks of surveillance in Potiskum, the commercialcapital of Yobe state. According to a senior police officer, nine alleged accomplices were alsoarrested. The area has recently been hit by a wave of bombings, including a suicide attack on asecondary school on 10 November, which resulted in the deaths of 58 people. On 18 January, atleast four people were killed in an attack on a bus station, while the previous week two womenwearing suicide vests killed six people at a market and two died in a car bombing outside a policestation.26 January Nigeria’s opposition urged the government on Monday to respect the electoral calendar,disclosing that delaying next month’s elections, over ongoing Boko Haram violence, wouldeffectively mark “a victory” for the insurgents. The opposition All Progressives Congress (APC)party has accused the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) of secretly backing postponement59

Global Security Reportand of using the militant attacks as justification. A statement released by APC spokesman LaiMohammed stated, “the truth is that the forthcoming elections terrify the PDP and the Jonathanadministration to such an extent that they are looking for ways to postpone or scuttle the polls,”adding “any postponement on the basis of the insurgency in the northeast will represent avictory for the terrorist group Boko haram.” While the PDP is not in favor of pushing back the14 February elections, Nigeria’s National Security Advisor Sambo Dasuki has stated that electionofficials needed more time in order to distribute the voter ID cards. The President’s position ona potential delay was left unclear in a statement that was released Sunday, just hours after heheld a meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry. In the statement, the president indicatedthat the 29 May date for inaugurating the winner of the election was “sacrosanct,” however hemade no comments over the inviolability of the upcoming election. Kayode Idowu, spokesmanfor the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) indicated Monday that the bodyremains firmly committed to holding the elections on 14 February. He denied reports that werepublished Monday in the APC-controlled Nation newspaper that the national security advisorhad scheduled a meeting with the election chief in order to push for a delay.25 January Boko Haram militants launched an attack on a key city in northeastern Nigeria on Sunday, justhours ahead of a visit by the United States Secretary of State. A curfew, which was imposed inthe northeastern city of Maiduguri over the weekend “to enable security personnel to carry outtheir operations,” was lifted Monday as the state governor urged residents to stay and fight.Borno state’s capital was on lock-down since Sunday morning, when Boko Haram militantslaunched dawn raids on two neighboring towns that were later repelled by the Nigerianmilitary. Nigerian Army spokesman Colonel Sani Usman confirmed, “the curfew imposed onMaiduguri has been lifted as from 6:00 am (0500 GMT). People can go about their legitimatebusiness.” On Sunday, Nigeria’s military fought Boko Haram militants near the restivenortheastern city of Maiduguri as US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived to discuss fears aboutelection-related violence. Militants launched a raid at dawn, attacking the village of Jintilo,which is located on the outskirts of the Borno State capital. The attack prompted Nigeriansoldiers to respond with heavy weaponry and airstrikes as Maiduguri was placed on lock-down.At the same time, militants attacked the town of Monguno, located about 65 kilometres (40miles) from the fishing town of Baga. Boko Haram overran the town and captured a militarybarracks; a significant gain for them as according to a source, the fall of Monguno not onlyremoves the last military base to Maiduguri, but “…also gives Boko Haram a free run into thekey city.” The attack on Monguno and Jintilo was also likely driven by a need for food, fuel,medicine and other essentials and has allowed the militant group to restock their weaponryahead of a possible regional counter-insurgency operation. It is believed that the militants maylaunch a fresh strike on Maiduguri from Monguno, which is located about 125 kilometres (80miles) north of the state capital. The military high command in Abuja reported Monday that“scores” of Boko Haram fighters had been killed. While in recent months, fears have beengrowing about a large-scale attack on Maiduguri, as the militant group has captured swathes ofterritory in Borno state, the renewed violence has further underscored the extent of thedifficulties facing the African nation as it attempts to put a solution in place that will enablehundreds of thousands of people displaced by the on going violence to vote in next month’spresidential elections. The attacks also came a day after President Goodluck Jonathan visitedMaiduguri, where he again vowed to end the militant group’s six-year insurgency. AmnestyInternational reported late Sunday that civilians in the city and in the surrounding areas arenow “at grave risk,” calling for their “immediate protection.” Many civilians caught in Sunday’sviolence are people who had previously been displaced to Monguno and Maiduguri after BokoHaram militants stormed Baga on 3 January.US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in the Nigerian financial capital Lagos on Sunday, andheaded straight to hold separate meetings with President Jonathan and the main opposition’spresidential candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari. He is expected to addresspoll-related violence, which has marred past elections in Nigeria, as fears increase that violencecould erupt again, given the closely fought race. During Nigeria’s last presidential elections in2011, some 1,000 people died during protests held in central Nigeria. While both PresidentJonathan and Buhari recently signed a non-violence agreement, this has not stopped the60

Global Security Reportsporadic outbreaks of violence that have erupted between supporters of the Peoples DemocraticParty (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Despite the on going insurgency in thenortheastern region of the country, the US has pressed for the elections to go ahead, withWashington expecting free, fair and peaceful elections. One US official has stated, “this electionin Nigeria is being watched by the entire continent and in fact by the entire world.” Kerry’s visitto Nigeria, the first by a US secretary of state since Hillary Clinton in 2012, was announced onFriday during a speech in which Kerry warned of the dangers posed by Islamist extremistsworldwide. Kerry recently described the attack on Baga as a “crime against humanity” whilethe US has warned of the threat to Nigeria’s sovereignty posed by the militants. According to asenior official, Kerry will raise the issue of the insurgency with both of the candidates, adding“we have been working very, very closely with the government of Nigeria to address BokoHaram, and I can say very clearly that no country has done as much as we have to supportNigeria’s efforts….And we would hope that both candidates will be able to address the insecurityand address Nigeria’s response to Boko Haram.” US involvement in Nigeria has been filled withcriticisms particularly with the Nigerian government’s slow response to the mass abduction of276 girls from the town of Chibok in April 2014. While US drones were deployed to the area,and the Pentagon dispatching intelligence and surveillance specialist, the whereabouts of 219teenagers remain unknown. Furthermore, both countries have accused one another of a lack ofattempting to end the insurgency. Assistant Secretary of State Linda Thomas-Greenfield hasaccused Nigeria’s military of being in denial of the threat posed by Boko Haram, which over thepast six moths has captured dozens of towns and cities in the northeastern region of Nigeria.Abuja recently ended a US training programme for soldiers fighting the militant group.Meanwhile Nigeria’s ambassador to Washington has accused the US of failing to provide theweaponry necessary to end the rebellion. Furthermore, despite massive defence spending,which accounts for some 20 percent of the federal budget last year, Nigerian troops have onseveral occasions reported lacking the right weapons and equipment to tackle the militants.According to a military source, Boko Haram has released nearly 200 hostages, most of themwomen, who were kidnapped from a village in the northeastern Nigerian state of Yobe. Sourceshave reported that a total of 192 people were released Friday from two Islamist enclaves, wherethey had been kept since a 6 January raid on Katarko, which is located 20 kilometres (12 miles)from the state capital Damaturu. Goni Mari, a Katarko community leader, confirmed the release,stating “they brought them in two batches in four trucks and dropped them in Girbuwa village,eight kilometres from Damturu, from there we conveyed them to the city and they were takeninto government custody.” The raid on Katarko involved dozens of Boko Haram gunmen whostormed the village, killing twenty-five men and burning homes and businesses beforekidnapping a total of 218 women and children. Sources reported at the time that the attack wasapparently in retaliation over a raid by local hunters and vigilantes in nearby Buni Yadi, whereseveral Boko Haram militants were killed and scores more arrested. The attack and masskidnapping received minimal publicity as Boko Haram raids have become a near dailyoccurrence in the restive northeast. Boko Haram is still holding twenty-six young boys, withofficials indicating that the hostages were released because they refused to fight alongside themilitants, who called them “infidels.” A local politician has disclosed that the hostages were heldin the town of Buni Yadi and in Ajigin village, which they seized months ago.24 January Boko Haram fighters killed fifteen villagers Friday near Maiduguri, where President GoodluckJonathan is due to launch his re-election campaign on Saturday. According to security sources,“the terrorists attacked Kambari village, which is less than five kilometres to Maiduguri, around5:00 am. They killed 15 people and set the entire hamlet ablaze,” adding “after fruitless effortsto enter Maiduguri through Konduga without success, the terrorists took a different route andattacked Kambari.”President Goodluck Jonathan on Sunday held an electoral rally at the epicenter of Boko Haram’sinsurgency, where he vowed to defeat the militant group. The president’s visit to Maiduguri,the capital of Borno state, came just a day after Boko Haram militants killed fifteen villagers innearby Kambari. Speaking to supporters at the rally, President Jonathan stated “what I canassure you is that if reelected as president, the problem of insecurity will be addressed,” adding61

Global Security Report“I am deeply disturbed by the number of people who lost their lives due to activities of someirresponsible people.” The president further indicated that he had assured local traditional andIslamic leaders of his resolve to end the insurgency. There was a heavy security presence beforeand during the president’s visit, the latest in a series of campaign stops across the country, withhundreds of armed police deployed across the key city. This is President Jonathan’s second visitto Maiduguri this month, having briefly visited the city on 15 January. That visit, which wasshrouded in secrecy, was his first since March 2013.23 January On Friday, the head of Nigeria’s electoral body maintained that elections, which are set for nextmonth, will still take place despite concerns about whether voter cards will be distributed intime. While on Thursday, Nigeria’s national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, told a conferencein London that the 14 February polls should be delayed in order to ensure that registered votersreceived their cards, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC),Attahiru Jega, has stated that there has been no discussion on postponement. Asked whetherthe presidential and parliamentary vote will still take place as planned, he told delegates at ameeting in Abuja, “I have said so….I have said everything we are doing, including the challengesof the distribution of Permanent Voter Cards, we believe is something we can address longbefore February 14,” adding “we issued the election timetable for February 14 almost a year agoand we have been very busy working to implement that timetable to the letter.” Jega alsodisclosed Friday that more than 50 million of the 68 million voter cards have been madeavailable and that 4.1 million were received on Thursday, adding “that gives us the confidencethat before the end of January, all the remaining cards will be available and made available forpeople to collect.” Apart from the issue of getting out voter cards on time, security concernshave also clouded the run-up to the elections, with hundreds of thousands of people forced outof their home by Boko Haram violence, the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC)party have maintained that the overall result could be called into question of the displaced areprevented from voting. The northeastern region of the country is an APC stronghold.On Friday, Nigeria’s top security official ruled out the need for a United Nations or AfricanUnion-backed force to fight Boko Haram, stating that the country and its partners could handlethe threat. Due to fears about the group’s threat to regional stability, possible “enhancedinternational support” against the militant group is due to be discussed on the sidelines of anAU summit later this month however national security adviser Sambo Dasuki, a former armycolonel, has disclosed that wider assistance would not be necessary, stating “I think as it is weare in good shape to address the issue with those partners, Niger, Chad and Cameroon.”Representatives from Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria met Tuesday in order to discussdetails of a new regional force aimed at countering the rising threat from the Islamist militants.An existing force, composed of troops from Chad, Niger and Nigeria, appears to have collapsedin disarray even before the 3 January attack on its headquarters near the northeastern town ofBaga. Officials have confirmed that troops from Chad and Niger were not present at theheadquarters at the time of the attack, which saw Baga razed and hundreds of civilians, if notmore, killed in what is believed to be the insurgents’ worst atrocity during its six-yearinsurgency. Tuesday’s meeting agreed to transfer the headquarters of the new force fromNigeria to the Chadian capital, N’Djamena.22 January Nigeria’s national security adviser disclosed Thursday that next month’s presidential andparliamentary elections should be postponed because not all the voter cards have beendistributed. Sambo Dasuki’s suggestion comes just three weeks ahead of the polling date.Speaking at a question and answer session at a conference at the Chatham House internationalaffairs think-tank in London, Mr Dasuki stated, “we said (to the Independent National ElectoralCommission), look, there is a problem…We still have about 30 million…(voter) cards todistribute,” adding “look at the possibility of shifting this thing and doing it when everybody hasa card because it doesn’t cost you anything, its still within the law and it is safer for all of us….Sothat is what we are encouraging. The (INEC) keep assuring us that everybody will have his cardbut I doubt it.” A spokesman for the INEC, Kayode Idowu, has indicated that the agency has notreceived word of any postponement, stating “…As we speak, there is no basis for something likethat, because in terms of preparation we are on course….The commission is preparing and PVC62

Global Security Report(permanent voter cards) are being collected. Those that are remaining, we are sure they will beavailable for people to collect before the end of the month.” Voting for a new president andparliament has been set for 14 February, with gubernatorial and state assembly elections set totake place two weeks later. The run-up to the elections however has already been clouded bysecurity fears with large areas of the country’s northeastern region in control of Boko Harammilitants. The INEC has been scrambling to find a solution in order to allow hundreds ofthousands of displaced people to vote in the affected area, which is an opposition stronghold.Latest figures released by the INEC indicate that 68.8 million people have registered to vote sofar, out of the country 170 million population. Nigeria’s main opposition All ProgressivesCongress (APC) party has voiced concern that if voters in the region controlled by Boko Haramare unable to vote, then the validity of the overall result of the election will be in doubt. The APCparty however is not in favor of postponing the elections. In a statement, party officialsindicated that Mr Dasuki’s statement “has exposed the hitherto clandestine plot by the Jonathanadministration to push for the postponement of the polls, using all sorts of cheap tricks.” Thestatement further disclosed that any postponement could trigger a constitutional crisis and is“capable of undermining the nation’s democracy,” adding that the international communityshould now get a commitment from President Jonathan that the elections will take place andthat he will respect the results. Last week, the United States urged Nigeria to go ahead with theelections, despite a recent upsurge in Boko Haram-linked violence. Election monitors from theEuropean Union (EU) have already arrived in Nigeria and the political campaigns of all theparties and the fourteen presidential candidates are in full swing.21 January A man purporting to be the leader of Boko Haram has claimed in a new video that his fighterscarried out the deadly attacks on the Nigerian town of Baga earlier this month. The man,believed to be Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau, stated that people were killed “as ourLord instructed.” In the 35-minute video, he stated, “we killed the people of Baga,” andthreatened more raids while taunting nearby countries’ leaders. He also issued a challenge toNigerian and regional forces to attack his group. The video also displayed an array of weaponsbelieved to have been taken from a military base in neighboring Doron Baga. While the newvideo has not been verified, sources have indicated that it is in typical Boko Haram style, withthe militant group’s leader wearing combat fatigues and surrounded by masked fighters. Theattack on Baga has been described as one of the worst attacks in the militant group’s six-yearinsurgency, with some reports suggesting that as many of 2,000 people died in the raid. TheNigerian government however has disputed these figures, stating that the death tolls stands at150. Satellite images released by Amnesty International show widespread destruction in Bagaand Doron Baga, with some 3,700 buildings damaged or destroyed. Amnesty cited witnessesreporting that the militants had killed indiscriminately, and has described the damage as“catastrophic.”Nigerian officials on Wednesday confirmed that five states have been hit with the H5N1 strainof bird flue, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands of poultry but no human cases.According to Agriculture Minister Akinwumi Adesina, the first cases were confirmed on acommercial farm in the northern city of Kano and at a live bird market in Lagos state on 8January. Speaking to reporters in Abuja, the minister disclosed, “while we quickly confirmedthat the cases were due to H5, we could not at the time determine the biotype. We have nowconfirmed that the cases were due to the H5N1 virus,” adding “we are taking all measuresnecessary to ensure that public safety is protected and that the poultry industry is notsignificantly affected by the spread of the bird flu.” The five states affected by the bird flu areLagos and Ogun in the southwest, Delta and Rivers in the south and Kano in the north. Fifteencommercial farms and nine live bird markets were affected, with the Agricultural Ministerstating “as of today January 21, 2015, a total of 139,505 birds have been associated with bird fluexposures, with 22,173 (15 percent) mortality recorded.” Kano has been the worst affected,with 103,445 birds reported as exposed to infection. Of those, nearly 16,000 had died. TheMinister has assured that there was “no cause for alarm” and “we are not in a state of anyepidemic, adding that the risk to humans is small. The H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus has killedmore than 400 people worldwide since it first appeared in 2003, with most of the deathsoccurring in southeast Asia. Update (29 January) – Nigerian officials confirmed Thursday that63

Global Security Reportthe H5N1 strain of bird flu has now spread to eleven states within a week, resulting in the deathsof tens of thousands of poultry however no human cases have been confirmed. AgricultureMinister Akinwum Adesina told an emergency meeting on the outbreak that “as of yesterday(Wednesday) a total of 11 states have reported positive cases.” Cases have been recorded inKano, Plateau, Gombe and Jigawa in the north; to the southwest, in Lagos, Ogun and Oyo; in thesouth, Rivers, Delta and Edo are affected and Imo in the southeast has also been affected.According to the Agriculture Minister, as of Wednesday, 232,385 birds were exposed to the virusand 51,444 had died – up from nearly 140,000 exposures and just over 22,000 deaths on 21January. Kano, Nigeria’s largest state in the north, has been the worst hit by the outbreak, with136,905 infected birds and 17,987 deaths. Lagos has 38,845 cases and 4,732 deaths. Theminister disclosed “we are not in a state of epidemic, we are closely monitoring the situationand taking aggressive containment measures,” adding “there is no cause for alarm but we mustnow move with greater speed and decisiveness.”A statement released by Cameroon’s government on Wednesday indicated that a Germannational, kidnapped by Boko Haram militants in northern Nigeria’s Adamawa State in July 2014,has been released following an operation carried out by Cameroon’s military and allies. Astatement released late in the day by Germany’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed the release ofits national. According to the statement from Cameroon’s presidency, “a special operation ofthe Cameroon armed forces and security services of friendly countries led this night to therelease of Nitsch Eberhard Robert, German citizen, abducted in July 2014 in Nigeria by BokoHaram.” The German national is now in Cameroon’s capital. Officials have not provided specificdetails of how the man was released, nor have they provided any details of his condition, beyondstating that he was healthy enough to be transported.19 January Nigeria announced Monday a cut in petrol prices, a month before the country votes inpresidential and parliamentary elections. During an evening conference, Oil Minister DiezaniAlison-Madueke confirmed that the price of a liter of petrol would drop from 97 naira to 87naira (47 US cents) at midnight on Sunday, stating that the measure was taken with the approvaland directive of President Goodluck Jonathan and that the recent volatility in the oil market hadbeen taken into account. Nigeria depends on crude exports for 70 percent of governmentrevenue and some 90 percent of its foreign exchange earnings. With the historic fall in oil prices,President Jonathan’s administration has had to introduce austerity measures and devalue thenaira currency, both moves that have directly affected the standard living for Nigerians. Nigeriaextracts around two million barrels of crude a day however it imports most of its fuel, as it doesnot have refining capacity. Subsidies are used in order to keep prices low at the pumps. In late2011, president Jonathan tried to remove the subsidies, which caused a general strike and massprotests. The subsidies were reintroduced however to a lesser degree.18 January A suicide bomber drover a car packed with explosives into a busy bus station in the northeasterntown of Potiskum on Sunday, killing four people and wounding 35. According to Yobe Statepolice commissioner Danladi Marcus, “the information I have is that the car was pretending tobe scouting for passengers,” adding “five people including the bomber were killed in the attackwith about 35 others receiving treatment for various injuries at Potiskum General hospital.”While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, it did bear the hallmarks of previousattacks carried out by Boko Haram insurgents. Sunday’s attack further adds to Nigeria’s litanyof security issues and comes less than a month before presidential elections are due to takeplace.16 January A suicide bomber killed at least five people and wounded eleven on Friday near a marketplacein northeastern Nigeria. Ahmed Minin, head of operations of the National Emergencymanagement Agency (NEMA) in Gombe, confirmed the attack, stating, “it was a suicidebombing.” According to eyewitness reports, the blast went off a 7:25PM (1825 GMT) in thepacked market neighbourhood of Kasuwar Arawa, which is located close to the public universityin Gombe, the capital city of Gombe state. According to a local, “the bomber went into the crowdof people waiting to recharge their telephones” at a public charging station “and then set off theexplosive.” While no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, Boko Haram militants are64

Global Security Reportincreasingly carrying out dangerous attacks in the region. Gombe has been hit by several suicidebombers recently, most of them at bus stations and near military installations.Ghana’s President John Mahama disclosed Friday that the African Union could seek a UNmandate for a force to fight Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamist insurgents however he noted that itmust first establish its own regional military operation to combat the militants. The President,who chairs the West African body ECOWAS, further disclosed that West African leaders will seeka mandate from the AU at a summit meeting, which will take place next week, in order to puttogether a multifunctional force. The force will take months before it is ready to deploy.15 January On Thursday, Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan paid a surprise visit to the heartland of theBoko Haram movement. The president, who is seeking to be re-elected, spent three hours inMaiduguri, the capital of Borno State, where he met with survivors of what is believed to be theworst attack in Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency. During a visit to a camp, which is shelteringabout 5,000 people who fled the 3 January attack on Baga in northern Borno, he disclosed thathis security chiefs have promised “all areas under the control of Boko Haram will soon berecaptured,” telling some of the displaced that he wants to “…assure you that you will soon goback to your houses.” The attack on Baga, which is part of Boko Haram’s upsurge in violenceahead of the 14 February presidential and parliamentary polls, is feared to have killed hundreds.The president’s visit to Maiduguri, his first since March 2013, was shrouded in secrecy and cameafter a previous trip to the restive northeastern region was cancelled at the last minute in Maylast year. President Goodluck Jonathan has come under fierce criticism for his failure to endBoko Haram’s six-year insurgency, during which over 13,000 people have been killed.Newly released satellite images by Amnesty International depict widespread destruction ofNigerian towns recently attacked by Boko Haram and suggest a high death toll. The satelliteimages were taken on 2 January, the day before the attack, and again on 7 January and accordingto Daniel Eyre, an Amnesty researcher, “these detailed images show devastation of catastrophicproportions in two towns, one of which was almost wiped off the map in the space of four days,”adding “it represents a deliberate attack on civilians whose homes, clinics and schools are nowburnt out ruins.” According to the human-rights group, the images show some 3,700 structureseither damaged or destroyed in Baga and Doron Baga last week. Citing eyewitness’stestimonies, Amnesty has indicated that the militants killed indiscriminately and that thedamage in the area was “catastrophic.” According to officials at Amnesty, the attack on Baga andneighboring Doron Baga is the largest and deadliest Boko Haram assault that it had analyzed.Nigeria’s government however has disputed reports that as many as 2,000 people were killedin the attacks last week, instead putting the death toll at just 150.14 January Nigeria’s military disclosed Wednesday that soldiers had repelled a new Boko Haram attackafter a two-hour gun battle in the restive northeastern region of the country. The country’sdefense headquarters has indicated that the militants had been pushed back from Biu, in BornoState, adding that two anti-aircraft guns were captured. Five militants were also reportedlycaptured. Residents in the town, which is located 200 kilometres (125 miles) southwest of thestate capital, Maiduguri, reported that the militants had stormed the town in 10 pick-up trucksat about 7:30 AM (0630 GMT) however they were intercepted by soldiers from a nearbybarracks, leading to a two-hour gunfight. According to one resident, “soldiers opened fire onthree pick-up vans carrying the gunmen that came as an advance party while the rest remainedat a fuel station in Kigir village,” adding “there were 10 gunmen in each vehicle and all of themwere killed in the rain of bullets from the soldiers.” The remaining insurgents later arrived atthe scene in vans and motorcycles. On the ground sources have reported that the town’smilitary base was the militants’ apparent target. There has been no independent verification ofthe death toll.Nigeria’s electoral commission has re-registered around ten million voters who were wronglystruck off the roll a year ago due to technical glitches. The opposition called out the commissionwhen millions of voters were struck off because of biodata collection failures. This effectivelydecreased the registered number from 70.4 million to just 58.9 million. However during a press65

Global Security Reportconference on Tuesday evening, the commission announced the final tally of permanent voterID cards. According to commission spokesman Kayode Idowu, “even though their finger printswere not captured the first time, they had an opportunity to come out and re-register,” adding“the final list has captured everyone.” The permanent voter ID cards were introduced byPresident Goodluck Jonathan’s administration and were launched in a bid to weed outfraudulent practices, including multiple voting and ballot box stuffing, which have marredprevious elections. Ahead of what is expected to be a close race on 14 February betweenPresident Goodluck Jonathan and his leading challenger, former military ruler MuhammaduBuhair, officials at the commission are working overtime in order to complete all thepreparations on time. The commission confirmed Tuesday that nearly half of all registeredvoters have yet to receive new voter identification cards. This has raised questions about thepreparations for the vote, which is due to take place in a month. Investors and foreign powerswill closely monitor Nigeria’s upcoming presidential elections.13 January Nigeria’s electoral agency disclosed Tuesday that next month’s elections will go ahead in thethree northeastern states that have been the worst-hit by Boko Haram’s violence however theyhave warned that there is little prospect that voting will take place in those areas currentlyunder the militant group’s control. According to the body’s chairman, Attahiru Jega, “INEC(Independent National Electoral Commission) has always said that it is preparing to conductelections in all the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, including the three northeaststates experiencing the challenge of insurgency,” noting “there are areas that are occupied byinsurgents and obviously it stands to reason that elections are unlikely to take place in theseareas.” The country’s main opposition will likely appeal for next month’s presidential electionsto be postponed. The opposition parties have previously stated that those people living in theaffected state now risk being disenfranchised, which could call into question the overall electionresult. Mr Jega however has indicated that efforts are currently under way in order to enableinternally displaced persons to cast their ballots, adding that the INEC is “…doing everythingpossible to ensure that elections are conducted in these three states.” In the last six months,Boko Haram has seized dozens of towns and villages in the northeastern states of Adamawa,Borno and Yobe. The militant group is now reportedly in control of the border areas of Bornostate with Cameroon, Chad and Niger. These rapid territorial gains have led to fears of a totalloss of government control in the remote region.The United Nations reported on Tuesday that the latest wave of attacks in northeastern Nigeriahas sent 11,320 people fleeing into Chad in a matter of days. Boko Haram militants began theirlatest wave of attacks on 3 January, when they stormed the town of Baga. They later razed thetown and at least sixteen surrounding settlements. While it has been impossible for aid workersto enter the area in order to verify the death toll, the attack is feared to have been the worstmassacre since the militant group launched its insurgency in 2009. The UN refugee agency hasindicated that some 20,000 people are said to have fled their homes in the wake of this attack,noting that some 11,320 people have arrived in neighboring Chad. According to UNHCRspokesman William Splinder, a full 60 percent of the new arrivals in Chad were women and girls,adding that 84 unaccompanied children had also crossed over the border. Another 2,000 peoplewere stranded on an island in Lake Chad during their desperate escape. The UNHCR is currentlyworking to transport them to the mainland.A suicide bomber was killed on Tuesday when his explosives vest detonated as he rode towardsa security checkpoint in the northeastern city of Gombe. Witnesses have reported that a largeexplosion rocked the Kasuwar Mata area of the city around 6:30 PM (1730 GMT) while mostresidents of the mainly Muslim city were attending evening prayers. Apart from the suicidebomber, no one was killed in the incident however a young boy, who was standing by theroadside, was injured in the blast. Residents in the town believe that the bomber was planningto target the checkpoint, which is manned by a joint military and police squad fighting the city’snotorious “Kalare” street thugs.12 January Nigeria’s police chief on Monday warned politicians and their supporters against violencebefore next months’ presidential election. The warning came after reports emerged over theweekend of clashes erupting in the south and central regions of the country. Last week, the main66

Global Security Reportopposition All Progressives Congress (APC) alleged that its supporters in the southern Riversstate had been attacked while on their way to a presidential campaign rally. On Sunday, anexplosion damaged the APC office in town of Aba Ama in Rivers state while four partysupporters were allegedly attacked with machetes in Rumueme near the state capital, PortHarcourt. Meanwhile in Jos, the capital of central Plateau state, thirteen suspects were arrestedafter buses belonging to President Goodluck Jonathan’s campaign were torched on Saturday. OnMonday, the Inspector General of Police, Suleiman Abba, stated “the perpetrators of theseunacceptable and heinous acts will not go unpunished, as the police will do all it takes to bringthem to justice.” In the past, electoral violence has erupted on several occasions, and there havebeen warnings that there could be a repeat of the 2011 clashes, which left hundreds dead.11 January At least four people were killed and twenty-one injured in the city of Potiskum on Sunday whentwo female suicide bombers, one of them aged about fifteen, blew themselves up in a crowdedmarket. According to a security source involved in the investigation, “one of the bombers looked23 and the other 15,” adding “the first bomber – the 23 year old – detonated her explosives justoutside the entrance of the market, where volunteers were sweeping people going inside themarket with metal detectors…the second bomber was terrified by the explosion and she triedto dash across the road but she also exploded.” Witnesses have reported that the second blastwent off as people were fleeing the first blast. The market was filled with traders and shoppersfrom all over Yobe state and beyond. The blasts, which took place at the Kasuwar Jagwal mobilephone market in the commercial capital of Yobe State, come just a day after a young girl, thoughtto be aged 10, killed nineteen people in Maiduguri in neighboring Borno State. In a separateattack on Saturday, two people were killed when a car exploded outside a police station inPotiskum. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the latest attacks howeversuspicion is likely to fall on Boko Haram, which has increasingly been using female suicidebombers to carry out deadly attacks. Older women may willingly become human bombs as theyeither share the Islamists’ radical ideology or are out to avenge the death of loved ones whowere killed by the Nigerian military. The young ages of some of the bombers, such as the girl inMaiduguri, suggest that coercion is likely being used. A civilian vigilante who witnessed theMaiduguri bombing has stated that he doubts if the young bomber “…actually knew what wasstrapped to her body.” Meanwhile another eyewitness has disclosed that it appeared that thebomb was remote-controlled, which is inline with other testimony from other attacks across thewider north region of Nigeria.10 January Red Cross officials and local vigilantes have reported that at least twenty people were killed andeighteen injured on Saturday when a young girl, believed to be aged 10, blew herself up at acrowded market in the northeastern city of Maiduguri. Sources have reported that the powerfulexplosion rocked the market at about 12:40 PM (1140 GMT) when it was busy with traders andshoppers. One local reported that the explosives detonated as the girl was being searched at theentrance to the market. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility, Boko Harammilitants have increasingly been using women and young girls as suicide bombers. In December2014, Zahra’u Babangida, 13, was arrested with explosives strapped to her body. She later toldjournalists that he parents had volunteered her to take part in a suicide attack in Kano. BokoHaram launched its first female suicide attack in June last year in the northern state of Gome.Since then there has been a number of bombings carried out, including four in one week thattargeted the city of Kano in July. The same month, a 10-year-old girl was found in Katsina statewearing a suicide vest. This prompted fears that young girls were being forced into becominghuman bombs rather than through ideological motivation. The popular market in Maiduguriwas targeted twice last year by female suicide bombers.Hours after a suicide bomber attacked the market in Maiduguri, a suspicious vehicle that hadstopped at a checkpoint outside the city of Potiskum, in neighboring Yobe state, exploded at apolice station as its driver was being taken in for questioning. A police officer accompanyingthe car and the driver were killed in the attack.The spokesman for Nigeria’s main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) party has deniedaccusations that the party is planning to electronically rig the February general elections by67

Global Security Reporthacking into the server of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). TheDepartment of State Services (DSS) has accused the APC of plotting to hack into the INEC’s voterregistration data base however Lai Mohammed has indicated that the allegations are aimed atpreventing the electoral commission from using the biometric system as the INEC is planning touse the system in a bid to reduce voter irregularities. Local media has quoted DSS spokespersonMarily Ogar as stating that officials from the organization, who were acting on a tip off, seized acomputer hard drive containing a video of twenty-one hacking tutorials during raids that werecarried out on the APC center in Lagos state. According to Ogar, “the tutorial video focused onhow to become a hacker and steps to take to avoid detection in the process of hacking webservers, steps and procedures of system hacking, passwords cracking, decrypting, escalatingaccess privileges, and creating backdoors to servers…The video explains how to hack into thesystems of media houses, with the aim of broadcasting fake stories and headlines.” The APC’sspokesman however has dismissed these accusations, stating that they are a ploy to thwartefforts of the party to win next month’s elections. He further indicated that the DSS has changedits previous accusation from the APC attempting to clone cards to plotting to hack into the INEC’sdatabase in a bid to rig the elections. While Mohammed has indicated that the alleged biasagainst the APC violates the mandate of the DSS, officials at the DSS have denied that theorganizations work to investigate the alleged attempt by APC supports to rig the Februaryelections shows bias against opponents of the administration.9 January Five weeks before the presidential elections are due to take place, Nigeria’s electoralcommission disclosed Friday that it has not yet finished printing the cards that voters will berequired to present at polling stations. According to Kayode Idowu, an electoral commissionspokesman, across the country, 38.8 million voters have retrieved their cards, out of the 54.3million that the commission, which is known as the INEC, had produced at the end of last year.He further indicated that of the cards that are ready, about 15 million have not yet been collectedby voters, indicating that some of them have not been collected because of apathy while othersdue to geographical remoteness. Mr Idowu stated that the INEC is “…making this data public toremind people to pick up their cards. We can’t take it to their homes.” The INEC is currentlysetting up more pickup locations outside the main towns in order to make it easier for ruralvoters. While the INEC’s spokesman has insisted that despite these delays, everything will beready on time, he declined to comment on how many cards were left to print and distribute.Data released by Nigeria’s electoral commission indicates that no voter cards have beendelivered to Borno state, the region the worst hit by Boko Haram attacks, with sources reportingthat the distribution of voter cards only began on Friday. The 14 February elections in Nigeriaare expected to be a close contest between President Goodluck Jonathan and his leadingchallenger, Muhammadu Buhari. The conduct of the elections will be closely monitored as pastpolls have been marred by widespread ballot stuffing and violence. While Jonathan’sadministration has created permanent voter cards in an effort to stamp out fraudulent practices,such as voting multiple times, there have been controversies over technical glitches and datacollection failures. Last year, around 11 million people were struck off the voting list, many ofthem wrongly, in an incident that resulted in the opposition condemning the electoralcommission. Mr Idowu declined to indicate how many had been re-registered.On Friday, militants fought running battles with troops in Damaturu, the state capital of Yobe,leading to the destruction of a mosque, a market and several shops. While the Nigerian armymanaged to repel the Islamist militant attack on Friday evening, witnesses have reported that anumber of buildings were burnt, including the police area command station, a mosque in theAbacha market, and several shops. No casualty figures have been released. The attack is said tohave been a reprisal for an offensive that was carried out by civilian vigilantes and local huntersagainst a Boko Haram enclave in southern Yobe on Tuesday.On Friday, Nigerian forces, backed by air strikes, began fighting for control of the town asAmnesty International suggested the attack on Baga was the “deadliest massacre” in the Islamistmilitant group’s history. A statement released by Mike Omeri, the government spokesman onthe insurgency, disclosed “security forces have responded rapidly, and have deployedsignificant military assets and conducted airstrikes against militant targets.” On the ground68

Global Security Reportsources have reported that hundreds of bodies remain strewn in the bush near the town.District head Baba Abba Hassan has disclosed that most of the victims are children, women andelderly people who were not able to run fast enough when the militants drove into Baga, firingrocket-propelled grenades and assault rifles on the town’s residents. A statement released byAmnesty International has indicated that there are reports the town was razed and that as manyas 2,000 people were killed. Daniel Eyre, Nigeria research for Amnesty International, stated thatif these reports are true, “this marks a disturbing and bloody escalation of Boko Haram’songoing onslaught.” The previous bloodiest day in the uprising involved soldiers gunning downunarmed detainees who were freed in a 14 March 2014 attack on the Giwa military barracks inMaiduguri city. At the time, officials at Amnesty International disclosed that satellite imageryindicated that more than 600 people were killed that day. According to the Washington-basedCouncil on Foreign Relations, in the last year alone, more than 10,000 people have been killedwith more than a million people displaced inside Nigeria and hundreds of thousands fleeingacross the country’s borders into Chad, Cameroon in Nigeria. Update (12 January) – Nigerianofficials have indicated that the number of people who lost their lives in an assault by BokoHaram militants on the town of Baga last week was no more than 150. According to the defenseministry, this figure included “many of the terrorists” who had attacked the town in Borno stateand who had faced resistance by troops. This number however is in stark contrast to reportsmade by local officials, who had earlier estimated the number of deaths at as many as 2,000.The ministry however has dismissed these estimates, stating that they were “exaggerated.” Itfurther disclosed that the army is in the process of taking “necessary actions” to restore law andorder there, however few details pertaining to the operation to recapture the town from themilitant group have been released. Nigeria has in the past often been accused ofunderestimating casualty figures in a bid to downplay the growing threat from Boko Haram.8 January Local officials reported Thursday that Boko Haram militants have razed at least sixteen townsand villages in a renewed assault just days after they captured a key military base in the restivenortheastern region of Nigeria. According to Musa Bukar, head of the Kkawa local governmentarea, “they (Boko Haram) burnt to the ground all the 16 towns and villages, including Baga,Doron-Baga, Mile 4, Mile 3, Kauyen Juros and Bunduram.” Abubakar Gamandi, head of Borno’sfish trader’s union and a native of Baga, also confirmed the attacks, stating that hundreds ofpeople who fled the area were now trapped on islands on Lake Chad. Local sources fear heavycasualties in the attacks that were carried out Wednesday in the remote north of Borno state;however there has been no independent corroboration of reports that some 2,000 people werekilled in the raids. Boko Haram attacked the town of Baga on Wednesday just days after itoverran the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) military base there on Saturday. On theground sources have reported that almost the entire town had been torched and that themilitants were now raiding nearby areas. With the military retreating, Boko Haram is now incontrol of Baga and 16 neighboring towns. Boko Haram’s offensive continued on Thursday, withreports that the group’s fighters set up checkpoints and killed those who were hiding in thebush. Nigerian lawmaker Maina Maaji Lawan has indicated that Boko Haram now controls 70%of Borno state, which has been the worst affected by the ongoing insurgency. The town of Bagais of strategic importance to Boko Haram, as it was believed to be the last town in northernBorno still under federal government control. The attack on the town was likely against civilianvigilantes who have been assisting the military. It is an ominous sign of the increasing violencebefore the general elections, which are set to take place next month. The militant group, whichhas seized more than two-dozen towns in northeastern Nigeria over the past six months, nowcontrol all three of Borno’s borders with Cameroon, Chad and Niger. Some 10,000 people havefled to Chad since Saturday in a bid to escape the violence. A large number reportedly drownedas they crossed Lake Chad. Others have fled to Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, in busesprovided by the government. President Goodluck Jonathan, who condemned the attack on aFrench satirical magazine in Paris, has not commented on the violence at home.On Thursday, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan formally began his campaign for reelectionwith a mass rally at a key opposition stronghold. All roads to the venue were cordonedoff as armed soldiers and police searched the crowds. President Jonathan, a 57-year-oldsouthern Christian, is pushing for a second term in office, calling for more time to build on his69

Global Security Reportfirst and complete his “transformation agenda.” The country’s main opposition All ProgressivesCongress (APC) party however has denounced Jonathan’s presidency as a failure, specificallyhighlighting his inability to end the Islamist insurgence and to tackle endemic corruption.Nigeria, which is Africa’s top oil producer, has also been affected by the fall in global crudeprices, which has effectively forced officials to revise the 2015 budget estimates and devalue thecurrency against the US dollar. The election campaign has now effectively transformed into asmear campaign. A recent newspaper advertisement supporting the AP candidate MuhammaduBuhari read “under his watch, Nigeria has become No 1 in broken promises.” On Wednesday,Jonathan’s campaign chief Femi Fani-Kayode described former military ruler Buhari as a “greatdanger” for the unity of the country, adding that he “represents a return to an ugly past whichis best forgotten.” He also questioned Buhari’s democratic credentials and described his recordin public office as “shameful and disastrous.” The meeting in Lagos comes as the President’sPeople’s Democratic Party (PDP) mounts increasingly personal attacks on Jonathan’s mainchallengers and as doubts continue to linger over whether the vote will be held. Nigerians aredue to elect a new president on 14 February however there are growing concerns that pollingin large areas across the northeastern region of the country may be ruled out over Boko Haram’sviolence. For now, the country’s electoral body has maintained that there are no plans topostpone the election.6 January On Tuesday, Nigeria’s chief of defense staff acknowledged that Boko Haram militants haveseized the headquarters of a multinational military force on Nigeria’s border with Chad.Speaking to reporters, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh disclosed that only Nigerian troops were atthe key base at Baga, which is located on the shores of Lake Chad, when insurgents attacked iton Saturday. At a briefing after a security meeting with President Goodluck Jonathan, Badehindicated “Chad had people on their own side but I believe they have withdrawn. Niger hadpeople with us. They too withdrew, and left only Nigeria at the Multinational joint Task Force(MNJTF) headquarters.” A senior military officer in northeastern Nigeria has disclosed thatCameroon, Chad and Niger withdrew from Nigeria months ago. Badeh has denied rumors thatChad and Niger have pulled out of the task force and has refused to say what happened duringthe attack.4 January Boko Haram has seized a town and key multinational military base in north-eastern Nigeria. Asenator in Borno state said troops had abandoned the base in the town of Baga after it wasattacked on Saturday. Residents of Baga, who fled by boat to neighbouring Chad, said manypeople had been killed and the town set ablaze. Baga was the last town in the Borno North areaunder government control. It hosted the base of the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF),made up of troops from Nigeria, Chad and Niger. Residents who fled to Chad said they hadwoken to heavy gunfire as militants stormed Baga early on Saturday, attacking from alldirections. They decided to flee when they saw the MNJTF troops running away.Communications with the town were cut off and exact information about casualty numberscould not be confirmed. Confirming that the military had abandoned the base, he said people'sfrustration knew "no bounds" over the apparent fact that the military had not fought back."There is definitely something wrong that makes our military abandon their posts each timethere is an attack from Boko Haram," the senator said.3 January Suspected Boko Haram militants have kidnapped about 40 boys and young men in a raid on aremote village in north-eastern Nigeria, residents say. Malari residents said gunmen had cometo the village in pick-up trucks and ordered all males to come out and listen to a sermon. Theyoung men were then rounded up and taken into a nearby forest. People who fled Malari andarrived in the state capital, Maiduguri, Friday said the men had been taken on New Year's Eve.Last month, suspected Boko Haram militants stormed another village, Gumsuri. A survivor said33 villagers had been killed and about 200 people kidnapped.Several people were injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a church in thenorth-eastern Nigerian city of Gombe. The bombing came hours after a female suicide bomberwas killed outside the Bolari military barracks, also in Gombe, on New Year's Eve. The malebomber, who was on a motorcycle, struck outside an evangelical church in the Tudun Wada area70

Global Security ReportSahel Regionof the city at about 9 a.m. local time, as worshipers attended a New Year service. The explosivesstrapped to his body detonated as he was having a heated argument with church volunteerswho had set up a barricade some distance from the church to screen people and prevent anyattack by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram. Some people near the bombing were injuredbut no casualties were reported. The botched bombing was the first violence this year to hit aregion that has been wracked by a five-year deadly uprising by Boko Haram militants.The Nigerian Army has reportedly dismissed 203 soldiers after a secret midnight court martialfor allegedly disobeying a direct order from their commanding officer. One anonymous soldiersaid the group were dismissed for asking for support equipment, following the army’s plan toconvey them in a tipper for an operation in Bama and Gwoza, two strongholds of Boko Haraminsurgents. The soldier, who is originally of the 19th Battalion in Okitipupa in Ondo State, butattached to the 7th division in Maiduguri, said the army detained them for over 90 days beforedismissing them after a midnight trial. He said they are owed up to five months in unpaidsalaries. Army spokesperson Brigadier General Olajide Laleye could not be reached forconfirmation.President Goodluck Jonathan has vowed to defeat Boko Haram after a series of attacks blamedon the group in recent weeks. Earlier on Thursday, at least 10 people were injured by a suicidebomber near a church in Gombe, north-east Nigeria. A day earlier, 11 people were killed whena bomb went off on a bus heading from Gombe to neighbouring Yobe state. Mr Jonathan said thegroup had caused "agony" in the country. They killed at least 2,000 civilians in 2014. PresidentJonathan said in his new year's address, "I want to assure you that the terrorists will not getaway with the atrocities, they will not win. We will bring justice to the savage terrorists knownas Boko Haram. They will be defeated." Jonathan, who is up for re-election in February, has madesimilar pledges before and has faced criticism for failing to stop the militants.20 January On Monday, the United Nations Security Council urged central African countries to step up plansfor a multinational force to fight Boko Haram, in its overall response to the threat posed by themilitant group. The Council has issued a 13-point statement, which strongly condemns attacksby Boko Haram, in particular those that involve children being used as suicide bombers, andwhich demands an end to the violence. In the statement, which was presented by Nigeria, theCouncil expressed “deep concern that the activities of Boko Haram are undermining the peaceand stability of the west and central African region.” The Council also demanded that BokoHaram “immediately and unequivocally cease all hostilities and all abuses of human rights andviolations.” The UN has accused Boko Haram of carrying out kidnappings, killings, hostagetaking,pillaging, rape, sexual slavery and recruitment of child soldiers since it launched itsinsurgency in 2009. The statement is the first adopted by the Council on the threat posed byBoko Haram, which is on the UN terrorist list. Previous statements had only focused oncondemning specific attacks. On the eve of a key meeting of regional leaders in Niger, the 15-member council urged Nigeria’s neighbors to advance planning for the deployment of amultinational task force aimed at driving out Boko Haram. While the multinational force hasbeen under discussion since last year, divisions over the scale and scope of its operations haveslowed down the deployment. Chad is set to contribute a sizeable contingent to the force, alongwith Benin, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria. Several diplomats have noted that the statementpoints to a shift from Nigeria, which has in the past shied away from discussing Boko Harameven though it is one of the 10 non-permanent members of the council. The Council statementalso urged regional leaders to “undertake further planning toward the sustainable, viable andeffective operationalization of the Multinational Joint Task Force,” and urged African countriesto “identify the means and modalities of the envisaged deployment, especially in the areas ofintelligence sharing and joint operations.”15 January According to the United Nation’s Ebola chief, while new cases of Ebola are on the decline, at leastfifty Ebola hotspots remain across the three hardest-hit West African countries. The latestreport released by the World Health Organization (WHO) shows a reduction of case reporting71

Global Security ReportSenegalin Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, which Dr David Nabarro has indicated “is very good news.”In the week leading up to the end of 11 January, the WHO indicated that Guinea reported itslowest weekly total of new Ebola cases since mid August while Liberia had its lowest total sincethe first week of June, with no confirmed new cases for the final two days of the week. In SierraLeone, new cases have been declining for a second week to the lowest level since the end ofAugust. While Dr Nabarro has noted that these declines in new cases means that the Ebolaoutbreak is starting to decrease, he cautioned that “there are still numbers of new cases that arealarming, and there are hotspots that are emerging in new places that make me believe there isstill quite a lot of the disease that we’re not seeing.” According to Dr Nabarro, there are “at least50 micro-outbreaks” currently underway, adding that chains of the transmission of the virus“have still got to be understood.” The current Ebola outbreak has been the worst. According tothe latest figures released by the WHO on Wednesday, there have been more than 21,000 casesand 8,300 deaths. As of Sunday, the death toll in Liberia stood at 3,538, followed by 3,062 deathsin Sierra Leone and 1,814 deaths in Guinea. According to Dr. Nabarro, the key to ending thisoutbreak will be in getting the local communities to change their traditional healing rituals, aswell as their funeral and burial practices, which involve a lot of contact with body fluids thatcontinue the spread of the deadly virus. WHO officials have reported that in some instances,evidence suggests that as many as fifty people may have become infected at a single funeral.While Dr Nabarro has noted that the national and international campaign for safe healing andburial practices, isolation of suspected cases and the quick treatment of Ebola victims isworking, he appealed for greater global support, including “virus detectives” who can identifywhere there are cases, as well as “anthropologists who can tell us how the communities arereacting,” and managers to make sure treatment centres are adequately equipped.26 January On Monday, Senegal reopened its land border with Guinea, with officials pointing to the“significant efforts” of its neighbor in fighting an Ebola outbreak that has claimed thousands oflives. In a statement released by the interior ministry, people and goods can now “move freelyby land between the two countries.” The statement further indicated that Senegal would put inplace measures at its land crossings in order to ensure people entering from Guinea were Ebolafree.The country initially closed its land border with Guinea in March last year as the numberof infections were escalating at an alarming rate. That order affected crossings in the south ofSenegal, which were heavily used by traders, particularly during a weekly market attended bythousands from neighboring countries. While the border was reopened in May, it was closedagain in August after an infected student crossed over from Guinea. Senegal was declared Ebolafreeon 17 October after the student recovered without spreading the virus. Air and seacrossings from the three other nations have been permitted since November however officialshave continued to enforce measures to avoid any propagation of the disease. While Guinea,Liberia and Sierra Leone have been devastated by the outbreak, which began in December 2013,all countries have recently seen signs that the deadly virus is retreating as the number of newcases has dropped week by week.24 January On Saturday, around 1,500 people, including the prime minister, marched against caricatures ofthe Prophet Mohammed in the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. Premier MohammedDionne was joined at the demonstration, held in Dakar, by cabinet colleagues, civil societyactivists, lawmakers, religious leaders and hundreds of members of the public. The event,during which a French flag was burned, used the slogan “I am Nigerian, I am African” todenounce the silence of African leaders and the world over massacres that have occurred on thecontinent, in contrast with the emphatic response to the Paris attacks. While Nigeria’s volatilenortheastern region has repeatedly come under attack by Boko Haram militants, the attackshave not garnered much public attention. The protests were also called in response to a cartoonpublished by Charlie Hebdo a week after the 7 January attack by Islamist gunmen on itsheadquarters in Paris, in which 12 people were killed. The march came a day after hundreds ofpeople gathered in front of Dakar’s Grand Mosque after Friday prayers to denounce caricaturesof the prophet. Many in Senegal have criticized President Macky Sall for attending a marchagainst terrorism held in Paris on 12 January. The president however has indicated that he72

Global Security Reportwould never countenance the practices of “a newspaper that is attacking our Islamic values,”stating that his presence in Paris was due to his “desire to present condolences on the killing ofinnocent people while reaffirming my commitment in the fight against any terrorist acts.”5 January Senegal is preparing to deport an exiled Gambian opposition figure who called for hiscountrymen to rise up and overthrow President Yahya Jammeh during a failed coup attempt latelast month. In a video that was posted on the Internet, and in a later interview on Senegalesetelevision, Sheikh Sidia Byao, head of the Dakar-based National Transitional Council of TheGambia, called upon Gambians to support the move. Mr Bayo’s lawyer, Assane Dioma Ndiaye,disclosed Monday “we received an official notification from the Senegalese authorities that myclient Byao will be expelled in the coming hours from Senegal.” While Senegalese authoritieshave not provided a reason for their decision, one official indicated that Bayo, who holds bothFrench and Gambian citizenship, was expected to be sent to France. On 30 December, gunmenattacked the presidential palace in The Gambia’s capital Banjul while the president was out ofthe country. Gambian security forces successfully repelled the coup attempt. President Jammehhas blamed the attack on political dissidents backed by foreign powers based abroad. Gambianauthorities have since arrested an unknown number of people suspected of being involved inthe attempted coup. On Monday, the US Justice Department disclosed that two Americans withties to The Gambia were arrested and have been charged by US authorities with conspiring tocarry out the violent overthrow of a foreign government. Washington has denied anyinvolvement in last week’s unrest.Sierra Leone14 January Despite registering 19 new Ebola cases over a 24-hour period, Sierra Leone’s president haspredicted that there will be zero new confirmed cases by the end of March. President Ernest BaiKoroma has also predicted that the West African country, which has been one of the hardest hitin the current outbreak, will be Ebola-free by World Health Organization (WHO) standards byMay. The president made this announcement during town hall meetings that were held thisweek in the northern Districts of Port Loko, Tonkolili and Bombali. It comes as WHO officialsannounced that they are starting to see signs that the Ebola outbreak is slowing in Sierra Leone.According to government statistics, the country’s southern Pujehun district has registered zerocases for more than 42 days. Despite this, the country has continued to record new cases inother regions. Amongst the 19 new cases the government reported countrywide, at least eightwere reported in and around the capital city Freetown. According to WHO statistics, over thepast 21 days, Sierra Leone has recorded about 900 cases. By WHO standards, a country cannotbe declared Ebola-free until it has registered no cases for 42 consecutive days.13 January According to the head of the Ebola Call Centre in Sierra Leone, Reynold Senessie, 80% of peoplephoning the toll-free Ebola help number are prank callers. While Mr Senessie indicated, “suchprank calls are affecting the smooth operation of the center,” he did note that the good news isthat “genuine calls are dwindling and response to such calls have been swift.” Palo Conteh, thehead of the National Ebola Response Centre (NERC) in Sierra Leone, who paid an unannouncedvisit to the call center on Tuesday, has warned that the mobile numbers of the prank callers “willbe traced and legal action taken against them.” The 117-call center is the first point of contactfor anyone dealing with possible Ebola sufferers or the bodies of those who may have died ofthe disease, which has swept through Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.10 January A district in Sierra Leone has been declared Ebola-free after 42 days with zero recorded casesof the deadly virus. Pujehun, which is the first district in the West African country to be declaredfree of the virus, is located in the southeastern region of the country, near the border withLiberia. Ebola was first reported in this district in August 2014. Since then, 24 deaths from 31cases have been reported however the district has not recorded a case since 26 November. Thiseffectively means that it has achieved the World Health Organization’s (WHO) benchmark forEbola-free status. District council chairman Sadiq Silla has credited the early decision to closemarkets, ban social activities and worship in churches and mosques as being responsible for theminimal spread of the virus. He had implemented emergency measures across the district73

Global Security Reportbefore the country’s president took action, a move that resulted in him suffering strong localopposition and death threats as a result of his decision. Pujehun’s Ebola-free declaration is aglimmer of hope in a country where almost 3,000 people have died however officials arewarning that new cases could be discovered as the outbreak in Sierra Leone is far from over.Sierra Leone has been the hardest hit by the Ebola outbreak. According to statistics released bythe WHO, the country has reported 7,718 cases up to 9 January, more than neighboring Guineaand Liberia combined. Officials have reported that they are starting to see signs of the outbreakslowing down with the capital city reporting 89 confirmed new cases in the week leading up to9 January, compared with 153 in the previous week and 199 cases in the first week of December.The fragility of these improvements however has been illustrated in the district of Kenema,which recorded a new case on 4 January after nineteen days of no new reported cases.8 January On Friday, President Ernest Bai Koromoa will visit parts of the country that have been severelyaffected by the Ebola outbreak. According to a spokesman for the administration, the move ispart of the government’s efforts to combat the spread of the deadly virus. The spokesmanfurther indicated “the president will be travelling to lead the social mobilization (effort in) therest of the country, starting in the north,” adding that the trip will include flying to Kambia, thentravelling by road to Port Loko, Lunsar, Makeni, and Tonkolili. The visit by the president to theaffected areas comes in the wake of the government’s decision to extend by two weeks aprogramme to contain the virus in the western region of the country. The first phase of theprogramme concluded on 31 December and the second phase will be a collaborate effortbetween the Ministry of Health and Sanitation along with other partners. Sources have reportedthat phase two of the programme will also include the creation of flyers and billboards and thepurchase of other material to address the public. It will also see an increase in surveillance andin the number of officials available to trace the infection rate. The effort will also continue toencourage residents to report to health officials Ebola infections in an effort to contain the virusat the community level.7 January On Wednesday, officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) disclosed that Sierra Leone,the country worst affected by Ebola, reported nearly 250 new confirmed cases in the past week,noting however that the spread of the virus may be slowing. According to the WHO, “there aresigns that case incidence may have leveled off in Sierra Leone, although with 248 new confirmedcases reported in the week to 4 January 2015, it remains by far the worst-affected country atpresent.” Officials have noted that while cases are continuing to be under-reported and arespreading unevenly in West Africa, the virus is spreading most rapidly in western Sierra Leone,with the capital city Freetown reporting 93 of the new confirmed cases. Officials have stated,“an increasing emphasis will be put on the rapid deployment of smaller treatment facilities toensure that capacity is matched with demand in each area.”Togo8 January Party leaders confirmed Friday that Togo’s opposition party has failed to persuade the rulingparty to support a two-term presidential limit that would prevent President Faure Gnassingbefrom running for office again. According to party leaders, talks to change the constitution beganon Monday at the National Assembly, however they broke down on Wednesday, ending with theparty’s blaming each other. Isabelle Ameganvi, the president of the main opposition nationalAlliance for Change confirmed “the three days of talks we have just had with out parliamentarycolleagues in the majority didn’t move a single step forward,” adding that the two sides had onlydiscussed the first point on the agenda, which was the distribution of natural resources in theWest African coastal nation. Few were surprised by the breakdown of the talks. Theparliamentary head of the ruling Union for Republic party, Christophe Tchao, accused theopposition of procedural obstacles and time wasting, reasons he cited for the failure of the talks.President Gnassingbe is expected to run and win a third five-year term in elections, which areset to take place in the first half of this year, however he has yet to announce his candidacy. In2002, Togo changed its constitution to abolish presidential term limits and a further reformwould require the assent of four fifths of the National Assembly’s 91 deputies, 62 of whom74

Global Security ReportCentral AfricaAngolabelong to the ruling party. Civil society groups have indicated that they would march Tuesdayto oppose what they said was the President’s plan for two more terms.CameroonNo Major Incidents to Report.31 January The Chadian military announced Saturday that three soldiers and 123 Boko Haram militantswere killed when the militant group attacked a Chadian army contingent in northern Cameroon.According to a military statement, twelve soldiers were wounded in the attacks, which occurredThursday and Friday near the border town of Fotokol. The general staff’s statement disclosed,“the enemy was repelled by our defensive forces,” adding that troops had “routed” the Islamistsin the second attack. According to the statement improvised explosive devices killed thesoldiers. A senior Cameroonian security source confirmed that Chadian troops were deployedto the town, which is located opposite a Nigerian town that is under Boko Haram’s control andclose to the border with Chad, on Wednesday. Boko Haram militants have frequently stagedattacks on Fotokol from their base in the Nigerian town of Gamboru, which is located 500 metresaway. Chad deployed a convoy of troops and military vehicles into neighbouring Cameroon on17 January in order to deal with the growing threat that Boko Haram poses in the region. Thecountry has called on neighbouring states to form a broad coalition in the fight against themilitant group.21 January A statement released by Cameroon’s government on Wednesday indicated that a Germannational, kidnapped by Boko Haram militants in northern Nigeria’s Adamawa State in July 2014,has been released following an operation carried out by Cameroon’s military and allies. Astatement released late in the day by Germany’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed the release ofits national. According to the statement from Cameroon’s presidency, “a special operation ofthe Cameroon armed forces and security services of friendly countries led this night to therelease of Nitsch Eberhard Robert, German citizen, abducted in July 2014 in Nigeria by BokoHaram.” The German national is now in Cameroon’s capital. Officials have not provided specificdetails of how the man was released, nor have they provided any details of his condition, beyondstating that he was healthy enough to be transported.18 January Suspected Boko Haram militants have kidnapped dozens of people in raids carried out inneighbouring Cameroon. According to officials, many of those kidnapped in the cross borderattack were children, with sources reporting that villagers who tried to fend off the attackerswere killed. A security source has reported that the attack occurred in the villages of Maki andMada, which are located in the Tourou district near Mokolo city in Cameroon’s Far North region,about 6 kilometres (4 miles) from the Nigerian border. The suspected militants arrived in theearly hours of Sunday morning when it was still dark and left in the direction of Nigeria withscores of hostages. Cameroon’s Information Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary confirmed theattack, stating that between 30 and 50 people were kidnapped in the raids, however the exactnumber is currently difficult to establish as investigations are on going. One police officer hasreported that the figure of hostages is around 60, adding, “most were women and children.” Itis believed that amongst those abducted there are 30 adults while the children are aged between10 and 15. Update (19 January) – Sources reported Monday that around twenty of the dozensof hostages seized by Boko Haram militants in Cameroon over the weekend, were released bythe militants as they were chased by the army. A source with a non-governmental organizationreported Monday that around 24 civilians were released as the militant group was chased bythe army shortly after the raid. Cameroon’s national radio and television also reported thataround 20 hostages were freed, however it did not provide any details on their release. Theweekend raid was the largest abduction ever carried out in Cameroon’s Far North region byBoko Haram and it comes amidst mounting fears that the group is expanding its operations into75

Global Security Reportneighbouring states.A spokesman for Cameroon’s defence ministry disclosed Sunday that a contingent of soldiersfrom Chad has arrived in northern Cameroon, where it will deploy to the Nigerian border as partof efforts to contain Boko Haram’s insurgency. According to Colonel Didier Badjeck, a convoy oftroops from Chad arrived in Maroua, the main town in Cameroon’s Far North region, late onSaturday, adding “in the coming days, they will be deployed to the war zone on the border withNigeria so that they can join our defence forces to crush and prevent incursions of Boko Haraminto Cameroonian territory.” Colonel Badjeck declined to say how many soldiers have beendispatched by N’Djamena. Boko Haram, which aims to carve out an Islamist state in northernNigeria, has increased its tempo of attacks in the region as Nigeria prepares for presidentialelections on 14 February. Over the past year, the group has also expanded its operation zone into northern Cameroon, prompting the government in Yaoundé to deploy thousands ofadditional forces, including elite troops, to its border with Nigeria.Suspected Boko Haram militants have kidnapped dozens of people in raids carried out inneighboring Cameroon. According to officials, many of those kidnapped in the cross borderattack were children, with sources reporting that villagers who tried to fend off the attackerswere killed. A security source has reported that the attack occurred in the villages of Maki andMada, which are located in the Tourou district near Mokolo city in Cameroon’s Far North Region,about 6 kilometres (4 miles) from the Nigerian border. The suspected militants arrived in theearly hours of Sunday morning when it was still dark and left in the direction of Nigeria withscores of hostages. Cameroon’s Information Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary confirmed theattack, stating that between 30 and 50 people were kidnapped in the raids, however the exactnumber is currently difficult to establish as investigations are ongoing. One police officer hasreported that the figure of hostages is around 60, adding, “most were women and children.” Itis believed that amongst those abducted there were 30 adults while the children were agedbetween 10 and 15.15 January Cameroon’s President Paul Biya announced Thursday that neighbouring Chad will send troopsto aid his country’s army in fighting Boko Haram militants from Nigeria. According to aCameroonian government spokesman, “Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno has decided to senda substantial contingent of Chadian troops to back the Cameroonian armed forces who havefaced repeated attacks from the Boko Haram terrorist sect with courage, determination andvigilance.” While Thursday’s announcement did not specify how many Chadian troops wouldbe involved, nor did it provide a date for the deployment, it comes just one day after Chad’sgovernment pledged “active support” for Cameroon in fighting Boko Haram. The offer alsofollows a meeting in Chad’s capital N’Djamena between President Idriss Deby and CameroonianDefence Minister Alain Mebe Ngo’o. The announcement of the deployment comes just days afterCameroonian officials disclosed that they had killed 143 Boko Haram militants who hadattacked one of its army bases at Kolofata near the Nigerian border. It was the first major attackon Cameroon since Boko Haram’s leader threated the country’s president in a video postedonline earlier this month.13 January Cameroon’s government indicated Tuesday that the country’s military has killed 143 BokoHaram militants. In a statement announced Tuesday on state television, authorities disclosedthat hundreds of militants attacked a military camp the day before near the border with Nigeria.Cameroonian Information Minister Issa Tchiroma Bakary indicated in the statement that thefighting lasted five hours, adding that a Cameroonian corporal was killed and four other soldierswere wounded. The Information Minister provided no other details.12 January Military sources have reported that Cameroon’s army on Monday repelled an attack by NigerianBoko Haram militants on a military base near the northwest border after intense fighting.According to a police source, “a group of Boko Haram fighters attacked Kolofata (in the farnorthwest) this morning. They specifically targeted the military base in the town.” An officialfrom the army’s elite Rapid Intervention Battalion confirmed the attack, stating, “the fighting76

Global Security Reportwas intense, but they were pushed back. We inflicted causalities upon them, there were noneon our side.” A local source has reported that residents in the area fled the city “as soon aspeople heard the first gunfire,” in the town, which also houses police, elite army and localgovernment premises. Cameroonian authorities have not disclosed the casualty figures.11 January Cameroon lawmakers will demand that President Paul Biya’s government outline a detailedsecurity plan aimed at preventing the frequent attacks on civilians by Boko Haram militants.Member of Parliament Joseph Banadzem has indicated that lawmakers will make the demandwhen the legislature reconvenes in March. Mr Banadzem has expressed concern that theadministration in Yaoundé may divert funds, which are currently earmarked for developmentprojects aimed at supporting security agencies fighting the militant group. He further indicatedthat lawmakers “…are insisting that we need to do a little bit more in order to tackle the issue ofBoko Haram,” adding “we have been pressing our government to get all the stakeholdersonboard and involve every person who can give information, who can act in a way that ouractivities should be fruitful.” Mr Banadzem highlighted that the lack of infrastructure in partsof the country’s northern region could hamper security agencies’ ability to respond quickly toattacks carried out by Boko Haram in nearby villages. While President Paul Biya recentlyordered air strikes against Bok Haram positions, which killed some militants, ruling partysupporters say an increased troop presence along Cameroon’s border with Nigeriademonstrates the government’s commitment to protecting its citizens. Nevertheless, MrBanadzem has stated that there is a need for the government to do more, adding that someresidents in his constituency are also demanding answers about Nigeria’s response, as themilitant group is based there.9 January Cameroon’s President Paul Biya has appealed for international military help to fight Islamistmilitant group Boko Haram, which this week threatened to increase its cross-border raids intothe country from Nigeria. In a New Year speech on Thursday to diplomats at the presidentialpalace, President Biya stated that the Nigerian group is part of a “global” movement that hasattacked Mali, the Central African Republic and Somalia in its drive to establish its authorityfrom the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic, adding “a global threat calls for a global response. Suchshould be the response of the international community, including the African Union and ourregional organizations.” The President noted that he regretted that a regional military forceagainst the Islamists had yet to be established. The president’s speech comes just days after atleast fifteen people were killed in an attack on a bus in northern Cameroon on New Year’s Day.It also comes in the wake of a newly released Boko Haram video, where the militant group’sleader, Abubakar Shekau, threatened to increase violence in Cameroon unless the countryscrapped its constitution and embraced Islam. Cameroon’s president did not comment on thevideo in his speech. In recent months, Cameroonian authorities have deployed additional troopsto the country’s Far North region and have killed hundreds of Islamist fighters. According to thepresident, new laws aimed at stamping out the militants have also helped, however he noted,“although weakened by the losses it has suffered, our foe nonetheless remains capable ofbouncing back.”7 January In a video message posted on YouTube, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau has threatenedCameroon, warning that the same fate would befall the country as neighbouring Nigeria. Thevideo, which was posted on 5 January, directly addresses Cameroon’s President Paul Biya andcomes after repeated fighting between the militant group and Cameroonian troops in thecountry’s far north region. In the video, Shekau, speaking in Arabic, stated “oh Paul Biya, if youdon’t stop this, your evil plot, you will taste what has befallen Nigeria…Your troops cannot doanything to us.” This is the first time that Shekau has directly addressed Cameroon and it is alsothe first admission that Boko Haram has been actively operating in the country. Cameroon’s farnorth region has increasingly come under attack and on 28 December, Yaoundé deployed fighterjets against Boko Haram for the first time. President Biya personally ordered the air strike afterthe insurgents cross the border and seized a military camp. According to the Camerooniangovernment, the aerial bombardment, hailed as a new phase in the counter-insurgency, forcedthe militants to flee. In recent months, Cameroon’s president has made a series of strongstatements against Boko Haram. In October last year he vowed to go after the group “until it’s77

Global Security Reporttotally wiped out.” While in May last year, he indicated that a Paris meeting of Nigeria’sneighbours was designed to “declare war on Boko Haram,” a key agreement at the summit toset up a regional force has yet to be implemented, with Cameroonian officials increasinglybecoming vocal in their criticism about the lack of a coordinated response to the militant groupwhich is increasingly posing a threat to security across the region.3 January According to a senior local security official, at least fifteen people have been killed in an attackthat was carried out by suspected Boko Haram militants on a bus in northern Cameroon. Asenior officer in the military BIR rapid reaction unit that is deployed in the region reported“Boko Haram elements on Thursday attacked a bus that was transporting many passengersfrom Kousseri to Maroua…” The officer further added that another ten people had been severelyinjured and taken to Maroua hospital. While Cameroonian authorities have not officiallycommented on the attack, which took place in the evening of 1 January, travellers who reachedthe town of Maroua had confirmed the incident. Maroua is the capital of the Far North region,which has seen the worst of the spill over of Nigeria’s five-year conflict. In recent months, BokoHaram, which has killed thousands in northern Nigeria over the past five years, has increasedits attacks on both sides of the border, effectively forcing Cameroonian authorities to deploythousands of troops to the northern region of the country to enforce the porous border area.These raids have also forced many Cameroonians living along the porous border to abandontheir farms, which in turn have raised the risk of food shortages. Recently there has been astring of other attacks in the region, carried out not only by the militant group but also byordinary bandits who target people traveling during the holidays.Central African Republic (CAR)31 January Militia forces in the CAR appealed Friday for international support for a ceasefire agreementthat was reached without the CAR government’s involvement. Political chief of the ex-Selekagroup, Moustapha Saboune, stated Friday “we invite the international community to use theNairobi agreement as a formula to solve the problem of Central Africa,” urging it to take theagreement “seriously.” The deal was signed in Kenya last week between senior representativesof the anti-balaka rebel movement and the ex-Seleka movement of former president MichelDjotodia. Under Kenyan mediation, the two sides have adopted a ceasefire, a cessation ofhostilities and a DDRR (Disarmament, Demobilisation, Rehabilitation and Reintegration)agreement. They have also demanded the replacement of the president’s government and theestablishment of a justice and reconciliation process leading to a “general amnesty.” Howeverinterim President Catherine Samba Panza’s government is not part of this peace agreement andmany have viewed the talks with scepticism, with some questioning the ability of the groups toenforce the deal on the ground.Chad’s President Idriss Deby disclosed Saturday that Central African nations have rejected aceasefire agreement that was struck by militia forces from war-torn CAR last week. The Chadianpresident stated that members of the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC),which groups ten nations, believed the accord “will not help the Central African Republic achievestability and peace.” He further indicated that the region would instead focus on official peaceefforts that involve the CAR’s interim government.29 January The CAR government announced Thursday that it has rejected a ceasefire agreement made inKenya between two militia groups aimed at ending more than a year of fighting and attacks thathave killed thousands. Communications Minister Georges Adrien Poussou has indicated, “thegovernment categorically rejects the Nairobi accord because it was not associated with thediscussions in any way. It is not a read accord, rather it’s a series of grievances from the twoarmed groups which hold the country hostage.” While few details have emerged about the talks,which occurred between the mainly Muslim Seleka alliance and the anti-balaka militia whooppose them, the two sides have conducted low-level and sporadic peace negotiations over thepast year. The Seleka alliance continues to occupy a large portion of the north of the CAR whilean interim government continues to struggle to assert its authority.78

Global Security Report28 January A top mediator at the Kenyan-based peace talks disclosed Wednesday that warring forces in theCAR have agreed on an initial ceasefire agreement. According to sources, the agreement wassigned between senior representatives of the anti-balaka rebels and the ex-Seleka movement offormer president Michel Djotodia. Mediator Kenneth Marende, a former speaker of Kenya’sparliament, disclosed “the parties have adopted a ceasefire, a cessation of hostilities, and a DDR(Disarmament, Demobilisation, Rehabilitation and Reintegration) agreement,” adding “theyhave agreed an initial agreement, but it does not take effect until a formal signing.” The mediatordeclined to provide the exact names of those who signed the agreement in Nairobi, however hestated “rest assured, they are the genuine leadership….Such things must remain confidential atthis stage of mediation.” The deal was struck Friday, with diplomats stating it took place in anupmarket hotel in Nairobi. While no timeframe has been given for the next round of talks,Marende stated “it is the parties who determine the timing.” Since early December, seniorrepresentatives of the anti-balaka rebels and the ex-Seleka movement have been meeting inKenya, in talks parallel to meetings in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the two sideshave signed a previous tentative ceasefire.26 January Rebels on Monday freed eight local officials who were kidnapped over the weekend, warningauthorities from the capital city against venturing into a northern town that remains under theircontrol. The captives were handed over to UN peacekeepers in the town of Kaga-Bandora,which is located some 300 kilometres (186 miles) north of the capital city Bangui. The officialswere kidnapped in a botched attempt to kidnap a government minister on Sunday. They wereseized as they were planning a visit by Education Minister Eloi Anguimate to the town. Earlierin the day, Armel Ningatoloum Sayo, a rebel leader turned minister for youth and sport, waskidnapped as he left church in Bangui. These kidnappings come days after a UN staff memberand French charity worker were taken hostage. According to Maouloud Moctar, the Selekaspokesman in Kaga-Bandoro, “we don’t have a problem with the local authorities but theauthorities in Bangui,” adding “we have already warned the president that we will not acceptthe presence here of members of the government before the end of the negotiations in Nairobi,”referring to talks between various faction in the conflict that are taking place in Kenya.The CAR’s Party for Unity and Development has accused a group within the predominantlyChristian anti-balaka militia of kidnapping Sports Minster Armel Ningatoloum Sayo in thecapital on Sunday. Party spokesman Igor Berenger Lamaka has indicated “we don’t know thekidnappers, but according to the information we have, this kidnapping was planned and carriedout in collaboration with members of a self-defence group calling itself ‘Revolution and Justice.’”According to Mr Lamaka, the “Revolution and Justice” group was active in Paoua, an area locatedsome 600 kilometres west of Bangui, adding that the sports minister had been a leader of thegroup prior to being appointed to his current position. Shortly after leaving the Galabadjia IIIChurch on Sunday morning, the minister was kidnapped by gunmen. His wife and brother wereboth present at the time of the abduction and they have indicated that they could neither identifythe kidnappers nor determine the location to which they had taken him. This is the fourthkidnapping to take place in the CAR since last Monday. A French female civil society activist waskidnapped last week, along with a clergyman and a female UN worker. All three have since beenreleased, however authorities in the CAR believe that these kidnappings are linked to theChristian anti-balaka group’s demands that officials release Rodrigue Ngaibona, known locallyas Andjilo, from prison. Andjilo was recently arrested by the UN mission operating in the CARon suspicions that he was involved in the massacre of dozens of Muslims in the country sinceDecember 2013.25 January A minister from the CAR’s transitional government was kidnapped Sunday by armed menbelieved to belong to the Christian anti-Balaka militia group. According to Nicaise Danielle Sayo,her husband, Sports Minister Armel Mingatoloum Sayo, was on his way home from churchSunday morning when his car was accosted in Bangui’s Galabadja neighbourhood by fighters in79

Global Security Reportan unmarked taxi. Mrs. Sayo, who was in the car with her husband at the time of the incident,stated “they instructed us to stop…They pulled him from his vehicle to put him in their car tohead to Boy-Rabe, their stronghold.”In a separate incident in the country’s northern region, two local officials have reportedly beenkidnapped by former members of the rival Seleka rebel coalition. According to residents, twoofficials working to implement a national dialogue to help the country out of its crisis werekidnapped by former Seleka fighters near the northern town of Kaga-Bandoro. Kaga-BandoroMayor Thomas Ndomete and local prefect Gaston Yendemon confirmed the kidnapping, statingthat the two officials were kidnapped at a roadblock located 10 kilometres outside of the townon Sunday morning. Several vehicles were also stolen.20 January According to a source within the UN’s MINUSCA force in the CAR, gunmen on Tuesday seized afemale UN employee from a van that was taking UN staffers to work in Bangui. A statementreleased by the UN MINUSCA force has since confirmed the kidnapping, stating “unidentifiedarmed men kidnapped on Tuesday a woman who works for MINUSCA after having stopped thevehicle in which she was travelling. A similar kidnap attempt failed just a bit earlier.” Tuesday’skidnapping reportedly involves gunmen who appear to be linked to the mainly Christian antibalakamilitia. The abduction comes a day after a French charity worker and a man were seizedin an area of the capital city that is controlled by anti-balaka fighters. Both kidnappings appearto be linked to the recent arrest of a vigilante leader. Update (21 January) – The UN hasconfirmed that a staff member with the world body’s peacekeeping mission in the CAR has beenreleased after she was detained in the country’s capital Bangui early on Tuesday. UN spokesmanStephane Dujarric told reporters in New York late Tuesday “a staff member was detained forsome time this morning in Bangui…she’s safely released and we’re obviously very pleased.”19 January On Monday, two people, including a 67-year-old French woman working for a Catholic medicalcharity, were kidnapped in the CAR. It is believed that the second hostage is a local manconnected with the charity. According to on the ground sources, a vehicle carrying the two wasstopped by armed men in the capital city Bangui, with the militants later driving off with thehostages. According to the driver of the vehicle, Brother Elkana Ndawatcha, “the three of us werecoming from Damara (north of Bangui)…when we were stopped by a group of four anti-balaka(militiamen) armed with Kalashnikovs in the middle of the city…They let me go after theyrobbed me of my mobile telephone, my bank documents and my money,” adding “one of themtook my place at the wheel and took my colleagues deeper into Boy-Rabe district,” referring toone of the militia’s strongholds in the northeastern region of Bangui. Sources have revealed thatthe kidnappers, who are from the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia, were angry over therecent arrest of one of their leaders. The CAR national secretary of Catholic Charity Caritas,Abby Elysee Guendjiande, confirmed the kidnapping, stating “when we called…(the Frenchwoman’s) telephone later the kidnappers picked up and said: ‘Release our General Andjilo andwe will liberate the hostages.” The French government has condemned the kidnapping and hascalled for the unidentified woman to be freed immediately. The French embassy in Bangui is incontact with the city’s archbishop, who has been holding talks with the kidnappers. Update (23January) – The French Foreign Ministry and the Caritas charity confirmed Friday that a Frenchcharity worker and her co-worker, who were kidnapped in the CAR earlier in the week, havebeen released. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius confirmed that Claudia Preist, 67, hadbeen released, and thanked the CAR authorities and especially the archbishop of the country’scapital for their help.18 January Prosecutors in the CAR disclosed Sunday that a power vigilante leader, accused ofmasterminding a massacre of some 300 minority Muslims in December 2013, has been arrested.According to prosecutors, UN peacekeepers arrested Rodrigue Nagibona, alias General Andjilo,who had been on the run for several months, on Saturday in the north-western region of thecountry. A judicial source disclosed Sunday that a Cameroonian contingent of the UN force,MINUSCA, arrested Andjilo in the town of Bouca after a fire fight with “his men.” Maurice Dibert-Dollet, Bangui’s general prosecutor, confirmed the arrest, stating, “General Andjilo is wanted formultiple alleged crimes including killings, rebellion, illegal possession of weapons of war,80

Global Security Reportcriminal association, rape and pillage.” General Andjilo is associated with an attack on aMINUSCA convoy in October 2014 that left one Pakistani soldier dead.14 January France’s President Francois Hollande has announced that now that UN peacekeepers aredeployed in the CAR, France will withdraw 1,200 troops from the country by autumn. TheFrench presence in the CAR will effectively be reduced from 2,000 to 800 troops. Francedeployed troops to the CAR in December 2013 in a bid to stabilize the country after a Muslimrebel coalition overthrew the president. Sectarian violence later erupted, with at least 5,000people killed. A UN mission took over peacekeeping duties from an African Union (AU) force inSeptember however the security situation across the country remains precarious.8 January A United Nations Commission of inquiry has indicated that it has found evidence of ethniccleansing of Muslims in the CAR, however the inquiry has noted that it has been unable to provethat genocide has occurred amidst months of unprecedented sectarian violence that has killedthousands. The three-member commission of inquiry has accused both sides of war crimes andcrimes against humanity and has accused the anti-Balaka Christian militia of ethnic cleansing ofMuslims. The commission has warned, “the principal actors clearly retain a significant capacityto re-ignite the situation and trigger a renewed cycle of killings.” Over the past several months,thousands of Muslims have fled the CAR, with the UN describing the forced and deadlydisplacement as ethnic cleansing. The UN has classified the situation as a top-levelhumanitarian crisis. The security situation across the country remains volatile, with thecommission of inquiry indicating that it was impossible to visit the central region of the countrybecause of a “hostile and violent atmosphere.”ChadRecent violence between rival militia groups has resulted in the death of six people in the centralregion of the CAR. According to a police source, “five people were killed and several injuredbetween Tuesday and Wednesday in clashes that erupted in Bambari between two anti-balakagroups for reasons not yet known. The victims were, for the most part, anti-balaka.” Thesources added, “following the attacks, certain anti-balaka on Wednesday night went to the houseof a local community leader and killed him, accusing him of betraying them. The attackers alsoburned his house.” Since June, the central trading town has been the scene of a series of violentclashes that have left 100 dead and at least 200 injured, most of them civilians. A UN commissionthat has been investigating the conflict in the CAR over the past two years has concluded thatboth camps have committed crimes against humanity, including “ethnic cleansing,” however thereport noted that foreign intervention had prevented the violence from escalating into genocide.The UN commission estimates that the conflict has resulted in at least 6,000 dead and states thata priority is to “end the impunity” that has been enjoyed by rival forces.17 January Tens of thousands of people joined a march in N’Djamena on Saturday in support of Chadiantroops deploying to neighbouring Cameroon and Nigeria in bid to fight Boko Haram. Marchingsome five kilometres (3 miles) through Chad’s capital city, demonstrators waved the nationalflag and chanted in Arabic and French “kick the forces of evil out of our territory.” Shortly afterthe march, Prime Minster Kalzeube Pahimi Deubet stated that the march sent “a strong signal, awarning to Boko Haram.” The march came as a huge convoy was set off from N’Djamena, taskedwith combatting the militant group, which has been carrying out deadly raids in northeasternNigeria and northern Cameroon. Thousands of locals hailed the arrival of some 400 vehicles inthe Cameroonian border town of Kousseri. The deployment and response from neighbouringstates comes in the wake of the militant group launching a full-scale attack on the strategic townof Baga, which is located on the banks of Lake Chad, and which straddles the borders of Chad,Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria. Chad is part of a regional force against Boko Haram that wasbased in Baga however both Chad and Niger withdrew their troops before the 3 January attack.81

Global Security ReportIn a speech before the deployment, Chadian President Idriss Deby stated that the newdeployment was aimed to recapture Baga. While Cameroon’s President Paul Biya has expressedgratitude over the deployment, Nigeria has expressed lukewarm support for the Chad mission.Nigerian army spokesman Chris Olukolade stated, “all support for our operations will bewelcome, but it must conform with our own on-going operations.”16 January On Friday, the Chadian National Assembly approved the government’s motion of deployingtroops to Cameroon and Nigeria to fight Boko Haram militants. The National Assemblyconvened a special session in order to give authorization to the government, with the decisioncoming a day after a Cameroonian delegation led by Defence Minister Alain Edgar Mebe Ngo’oand an emissary of Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan. In a statement released Thursday,Cameroonian President Paul Biya hailed “a warm gesture of brotherhood and solidarity that ispart of the on going commitment of the two heads of state for stability, peace and security oftheir countries and their people.” In an official statement release on Wednesday, Chad hadproposed an “active support” in Cameroon to fight again Boko Haram and urged theinternational community to “take concrete and consistent action in favour of Cameroon and allthe states along the Lake Chad, in order to eradicate the scourge of Boko Haram.”14 January After another cross-border raid this week by Boko Haram militants, on Wednesday, Chad’sgovernment pledged “active support” for neighbouring Cameroon in fighting the Nigerian-basedmilitant group. In a statement released Wednesday, the government of Chad “expresses itssolidarity with Cameroon and is disposed to provide active support in the courageous anddetermined response of its armed force against the criminal and terrorist acts of Boko Haram.”Chad’s pledge to aid its neighbour comes just days after Boo Haram fighters crossed intoCameron to attack a military base in the northern town of Kolofata. Cameroon’s military hasdisclosed it killed 143 insurgents in the fire fight, which occurred Monday, adding that oneCameroonian soldier was killed. While Chad has so far not been targeted by Boko Haram, thereis only a sliver of land in northern Cameroon that separates the desert state from the militantgroup’s stronghold in Nigeria’s Borno state. Furthermore, with Boko Haram increasinglylaunching cross-border attacks into Cameroon, officials in neighbouring Chad and Niger fearthat the militant group may soon launch attacks within their own borders as it attempts tocreate a hardline Islamic state in northeastern Nigeria along the border with Chad, Cameroonand Niger. The militant group is reportedly in control of areas along the borders of these threeWest African states. While not having any attacks occur on its soil, Chad has been affected bythe refugee crisis sparked by Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency, which since 2009 has killedover 13,000 people. According to the latest figures released by the United Nations, over 11,000people, who fled an onslaught last week on the Nigerian town of Baga, sought refuge in Chad.President Deby’s government has now warned that it will “not stand idly by” faced with thethreat from Boko Haram. It has called on the West African ECOWAS bloc and the internationalcommunity to also step up their response to the growing threat.8 January Chad’s prime minister has appealed for international aid for thousands of Nigerian refugees whofled Boko Haram attacks this past weekend, crossing the border into the Lake Chad region.According to Prime Minister Kalzeube Pahimi Deubet, in recent days around 2,000 Nigeriansand 500 Chadians crossed the border into Chad, joining around 1,000 Nigerians who arrivedseveral months ago after fleeing Boko Haram attacks in northern Nigeria. The UN refugeeagency (UNHCR) has indicated that UN agencies, the Chadian Red Cross and several othergroups conducted an evaluation mission this week on the area where the refugees are located.According to the UNHCR, “following insurgent attacks on five villages along the frontier betweenChad and Nigeria between Dec 28 and Dec 30, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated.” Theagency has put the total figure of Nigerian refugees in Chad at more than 5,000. Update (9January) – The UN refugee agency reported Friday that in the past ten days, some 7,300 Nigerianrefugees arrived in western Chad, all fleeing recent attacks by Boko Haram militants on the townof Baga and surrounding villages in northeastern Nigeria. According to a spokesperson, UNHCRteams in Chad are currently at the border, seeking more information on the new arrivals andtheir needs. The latest surge in refugees comes just days after an attack on the town of Baga left82

Global Security Reporthundreds of people dead. On the ground sources have reported that the newly arrived refugeesin Chad are staying with local communities in villages located around 450 kilometres (280miles) northwest of the capital, N’Djamena. The Chadian government has requested theassistance of aid agencies to help with the refuges.7 January According to government officials, over 3,000 Nigerians have fled to Chad in order to escapeattacks carried out by Boko Haram in northern Nigeria. Speaking to diplomats and otherinternational officials in N’Djamena, Chadian Prime Minister Kalzeube Pahimi Deubet indicated“since mid-December we’ve witnessed a massive influx of Nigerian refugees in the Lake Chadregion” bordering Nigeria. Over the weekend, hundreds of civilians fled to Chad after a seriesof Boko Haram attacks, in which several villages and a military base were seized. According tothe Chadian Prime Minister, “to date, we’ve recorded over 3,000 Nigeria refugees and 543‘returning’ Chadians” fleeing “instability in certain neighbouring countries, particularly Nigeriadue to Boko Haram…we fear this could lead us into an uncontrollable situation if we don’t takemeasures in time…the problem is both humanitarian, and one of security. The humanitariansituation is worrying and requires international support, because disease has now broke out,”adding that Chad is currently in the process of deploying forces to ensure the safety of therefugees. Michel Waibo, representative of the African Development Bank, has warned that “allpartners are aware that Chad must not be overwhelmed in a way that would create problemsand disorder in Africa in general, and central Africa in particular.” Boko Haram, which hasdeclared a “caliphate” in the zones it controls in northeastern Nigeria, has increasingly beenactive on the borders of Cameroon and Niger.Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)31 January The DRC’s foreign minister announced Saturday that Congolese government troops have beguna long-awaited offensive against Rwandan Hutu rebels in the eastern region of the country.Speaking on the side lines of an African Union (AU) summit in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa,Raymond Tshibanda disclosed “the action has started and will not stop until we haveneutralised these negative forces,” adding “the determination of the government is such thatthere will be no let up until we have finished this group.” The AU’s commissioner for peace andsecurity, Smail Chergui, has welcomed the announcement, stating that the FDLR has continuedto recruit fighters despite their promise to disarm. The Kinshasa government along with theinternational community had given the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)an ultimatum to lay down their arms and surrender by 2 January or face attacks and forcibledisarmament. Dealing with the FDLR is seen as a necessary step in ending decades of conflictthat have affected the Great Lakes region.29 January The United Nations Security Council has renewed its sanctions on the DRC in a bid to preventthe supply, sale or transfer of arms, training, and financing to armed groups. The 15-memberCouncil unanimously adopted the new resolution, effectively renewing until 1 July 2016 thearms embargo and related sanctions imposed on the DRC. It also renewed the mandate of theGroup of Experts monitoring the implementation of those measures, which has been extendeduntil 1 August 2016. During the session, Council members highlighted their concerns over thepassing of the 2 January deadline, set up by the International Conference on the Great LakesRegion (ICGLR) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), for formerDemocratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) to rebels to surrender. They noted thatthe FDLR has “not only failed to unconditionally and fully surrender and demobilize, but hasalso continued to recruit new fighters in their ranks.” The Council also stressed the importanceof the government of the DRC to hold countable those responsible for war crimes and crimesagainst humanity in the country, including through its cooperation with the InternationalCriminal Court (ICC).83

Global Security Report27 January On Tuesday, the Congolese opposition demanded a clear election timetable after the adoptionof a controversial law failed to ease fears that President Joseph Kabila was attempting to extendhis term in office. A statement signed by fifty opposition parties and associations stated, “weare calling on the national election commission to publish without delay a comprehensive andmutually agreed upon calendar in compliance with the deadlines set out by the constitution.”Opposition leaders Samy Badibanga and Vital Kamerhe were amongst the fifty signatories toTuesday’s statement. The DRC has been in turmoil ever since the President’s governmentintroduced an electoral law with a provision that would make new polls contingent on thecompletion of a census, a process that could take at least three years. Opposition leadersindicated that this was a way for the president to remain in power beyond 2016 despite beingconstitutionally barred from running again. The bill sparked several days of violent protestslast week between police and protesters, with rights groups reporting that as many as forty-twopeople were killed dozens injured. Government officials have put the death toll at twelve. Whileboth houses of parliament eventually dropped the controversial provision, the final text has leftuncertainty over the timing of a series of elections, including whether presidential elections willbe held at the end of Kabila’s second term next year.24 January DRC lawmakers on Saturday agreed to scrap a contested part of an electoral bill that triggereddays of violent protests over claims that it would enable President Joseph Kabila to extend histerm in office. National Assembly speaker Aubin Minaku has confirmed that MP’s will withdrawthe controversial provision from the planned legislation that required a census to be held beforethe next presidential elections in 2016. Speaking shortly after the announcement, VitalKamerhe, head of the opposition Union for the Congolese Nation, stated, “this is avictory…because there won’t be a delay of the presidential election.” The lower house ofparliament is now expected to vote on the final text on Monday.23 January The DRC’s Senate has amended a controversial census bill following four days of violentnationwide protests. The 80 senators present in parliament unanimously passed anamendment to the most contested part of the planned legislation, which was already passed bythe lower house, that would have delayed the elections in 2016. The new version removes therequirement to hold a census before a presidential election. Under the Senate’s amendment, theelections could be held in 2016 as planned, before a census is conducted. The lower house ofparliament still has to approve the changes.22 January Following days of deadly clashes between police and protesters, senators in the DRC delayed avote Thursday on the contested legislation that would extend President Kabila’s rule. Thedecision to put off the vote until Friday came as fresh violence erupted in the east with tensionsremaining high in the capital city Kinshasa. A Senate office confirmed that the session was nowscheduled for 0800 GMT Friday because a committee had not finished examining the legislation,which had been approved by the lower house last weekend. The capital city remained largelycalm on Thursday, however there was a large police presence around the parliament and thecity’s university, which became the focal point for demonstrations earlier in the week. Policehowever opened fire on protesters in Goma, the main city in the DRC’s mineral eastern region,and used tear gas to repel stone-hurling youths building street barricades. The mayor of Goma,which lies 1,500 miles (900 miles) from the capital city, announced Thursday that all schoolswill remain closed until Monday in order “to ensure that calm has returned.”On Thursday, a top rights group accused security forces in the DRC of killing dozens of peoplein protests over the contested legislation, due to be voted on Thursday, that would extendPresident Joseph Kabila’s rule. While on the ground sources reported that riot police openedfire on crowds of demonstrators in the main city in the country’s eastern region, the capitalremained calm Thursday after three days of deadly violence there. Violence erupted in theeastern city of Goma, which is located 1,500 kilometres (900 miles) from the capital, when riotpolice fired on groups of several hundred demonstrators. The International Federation ofHuman Rights (FIDH) has indicated that forty-two people had been killed in three days ofdemonstrations in Kinshasa, however the government has challenged these figures, stating thatonly twelve people hade been killed. A statement released by FIDH said “as has unfortunately84

Global Security Reportbecome a frequent occurrence in the DRC, the security forces have again demonstrated a totallyexcessive and disproportionate reaction by firing live ammunition on protesters,” adding “theauthorities must put an immediate end to the repression, identify the perpetrators of the crimesand bring them to justice.” Government spokesman Lambert Mende has maintained that onlytwelve people, including a police officer, had been killing, and has accused FIDH of being“manipulated” by an exiled Congolese group. Protesters are rising up in the DRC againstlegislation that would enable President Kabila, who has been in power for the past fourteenyears, to extend his term beyond 2016, when his second and final term in office is due to end.Senators in parliament, which remained sealed off by soldiers, were due to meet Thursday at1300 GMT in order to debate and vote on the bill.Authorities restored Internet access in the capital city on Thursday however they kept mobilephones blocked on the fourth day of violent protests against President Joseph Kabila. Internetservices had been shut down for almost 48 hours, while police clashed with demonstrators overan electoral law before parliament that would enable the president to stay in office beyond2016. On Thursday, 3G mobile telecommunications and text messaging, which account foralmost all private connections across the central African country, remained unavailable inKinshasa. The mobile links were also cut elsewhere, with on the ground sources reporting thatin Lubumbashi, the nation’s second largest city in the south-eastern Katanga province, and inthe northeastern city of Goma, there was no cell phone service. According to a source close tothe case, the government authorized Internet service providers to put the network back online,without 3G technology, in a move that will largely benefit big business, administrative officesand diplomatic missions. Government officials are due to meet with phone operators, who arekeen to restore services to their customers, later on Thursday.21 January Gunshots were heard Wednesday in the DRC’s capital city, Kinshasa, as police cracked down ona new student demonstration at the city’s main university, following two days of bloodyviolence. Protests erupted on Monday and have continued with many heading to the streetsprotesting against the government’s attempts to extend President Kabila’s term. OnWednesday, security forces sealed off the government-run University of Kinshasa, which hasbeen the focal point of protests over the past three days. The protests also prompted the RomanCatholic Church to close its schools in the capital city on Wednesday, with Cardinal Pasinyaannouncing that they will remain closed until Monday. According to government spokesmanLambert Mende, eleven people, including a policeman, have been killed in the protests, withtwenty-two others wounded. The opposition however has disputed these figures. Oppositionleader Vital Kamerhe has indicated that at least twenty-eight protesters have been killed –twenty on Monday and eight on Tuesday. Protests in Kinshasa, which has a population of morethan 9 million and which is seen as an opposition stronghold, are likely to continue over thecoming days.On Wednesday, the European Union called for calm in the DRC and respect for the electiontimetable after a wave of deadly protests erupted against a proposed law allowing PresidentJoseph Kabila to stay in power beyond his fixed two terms. A statement released by the EUdisclosed “all sides should seek a consensus allowing a return to calm,” adding that “respect ofthe electoral calendar as fixed by the constitution is central to the debate.” The statement wenton to say, “the European Union expects publication of a complete calendar including legislativeand presidential elections in line with the constitution.” Gunshots were heard Wednesday aspolice officers cracked down on a new student protest at Kinshasa’s university. According to alocal human rights organization, since Monday, twenty-eight people have been killed in antigovernmentprotests, however government authorities have put the death toll at five.Protesters oppose a draft law that would enable President Kabila to stay in power for a thirdterm after his current mandate ends in 2016.20 January At least four people have been killed in protests in the DRC over claims that President JosephKabila is seeking to extend his 14-year rule by delaying next year’s presidential elections.Protests continued on Tuesday in the capital city Kinshasa following Monday’s fatal clashes thaterupted between opposition supports and security forces. On the ground sources have reported85

Global Security Reportthat police fired shots in the air in a bid to disperse protesters in the capital city. Eyewitnessesreported student burning tires and barricading the road leading to the University of Kinshasa.Government spokesman Lambert Mende confirmed that one policeman and two “looters” werekilled in Monday’s clashes in Kinshasa. Protesters erupted in other cities across the DRC, withthousands taking to the streets, including in Goma, which is the main trading post in the easternregion of the country. Demonstrators are calling on President Kabila to step down when histerm expires, with some carrying placards that read: “don’t touch the constitution.” Theprotests coincide with a debate in the Senate over the government’s plans to hold a census priorto the elections taking place.19 January Security forces fired live rounds and tear gas at rock-throwing protesters in the DRC’s capitalcity on Monday as opposition parties attempted to block a change in the law that may delay the2016 presidential elections. On the ground sources have reported that smoke billowed in theair as tires burned in the streets of Kinshasa where police in riot gear and armed presidentialguards were deployed. Witnesses reported police firing shots in some neighbourhoods,however the government has denied these reports. Opposition parties indicated Monday thattwo of their leaders, who called on followers to occupy parliament, were prevented from leavingthe offices of the UNC party by security forces. Protests also erupted in Goma, the main city inthe eastern region of the DRC. The protests are against a revised election law that requires anational census to be carried out prior to elections, a move that could delay next year’s polls andwhich could effectively allow President Joseph Kabila to stay in power. While critics of the billhave called the reform a “constitutional coup,” the government has maintained that the censusis a necessary part of the electoral process. The bill has already been approved by the lowerhouse of parliament and was due to be examined by the Senate on Monday.17 January On Saturday, the DRC’s lower house of Parliament approved a revision to the country’s electoralcode, which opponents say will delay the 2016 presidential election by years. The final vote was305 for and eight against, with 24 abstentions as most opposition lawmakers boycotted thesession. The vote, originally expected on Monday, was hastily declared for Saturday, a nationalholiday, the night before in an apparent bid to pre-empt opposition protests planned forMonday. Opposition parties had urged people to occupy the parliament building on Monday ina bid to block the vote. According to National Assembly President Aubin Minaku, the bill, whichrequires that a national census be carried out before the elections next year, now moves to theSenate, which could examine the measure as soon as Sunday. Critics of the bill believe that it isan attempt by President Joseph Kabila to hold onto power despite the end of his currentmandate. President Kabila, who won elections in 2006 and 2011, is constitutionally barred fromstanding for a third term in 2016. While backers of the reform have insisted that the census isneeded in order to ensure fair elections, and have argued that it can be completed within a year,on Friday, government spokesman Lambert Mende acknowledged to French radio that theelections could be postponed to 2017.16 January UN officials disclosed Friday that they are still waiting for President Joseph Kabila to sign off ona joint military plan aimed at driving rebels out of the eastern region of the DRC. UN spokesmanStephane Dujarric told reporters that despite appeals by the Security Council and SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-moon more than a week ago, President Kabila had not signed a joint directiveon the military operation, stating “we are obviously making preparations for this action…forsuch a major operation, its important that the government be fully on board. The contacts areon-going.” The UN’s 20,000-strong MONUSCO force is preparing to launch the offensive againstthe Hutu rebels, however the mission’s success hinges on an active role by the Congolesegovernment troops. Rebels from the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)are facing military action after they failed to meet the 2 January 2015 surrender deadline thatwas set up by the UN and African leaders. Up to 1,500 FDLR rebels remain active in large areasin the remote South Kivu, North Kivu and Katanga provinces.On Friday the DRC government acknowledged that the presidential polls, which are scheduledfor 2016, could be postponed for a year, a statement that has renewed opposition allegations86

Global Security Reportthat President Joseph Kabila is seeking to prolong his term. Speaking to French radio RFI, DRCgovernment spokesman Lambert Mende disclosed that the country’s presidential vote “couldtake place in 2016 as it could take place in 2017.” While Mende indicated that it was hoped tohold the vote on schedule, he downplayed the consequences of any postponement of elections,noting that the DRC “has a Senate that has overrun the term it was accorded by three years, andthe sky hasn’t fallen on our heads.” DRC authorities are seeking to make the dates of the nextpresidential and legislative elections contingent on the completion of a national census, whichis slated to begin this year. The government argues that results of the new census will enablemore representative elections to be organized than basing them on the last population of 1984.The opposition however fears that the census will not be completed in time in order to hold theelections in 2016. This view is also shared by many observers who have stated that carryingout an accurate population count, in a country that lacks necessary infrastructure and which isplagued by armed rebel groups operating in the east, could take up to three years. Theopposition has maintained that making completion of such a complex undertaking a conditionfor presidential elections to take place is a ploy by the government to allow the president to stayin power while his allies seek a constitutional change that would permit him to run for officeagain.15 January Opposition leaders in the DRC have called on their supporters to occupy Parliament nextMonday in a bid to block a reform of the electoral code they say is designed to keep PresidentJoseph Kabila in power after the end of his term next year. A statement released by theopposition has called for large protests across the country and has urged parents to keep theirchildren home from school and shop owners to close their stores. Vital Kamerhe, president ofthe Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC) has indicated that demonstrators will hit back againsttough police tactics that have thwarted previous protests. Frequent opposition protests inKinshasa have failed to mobilize large numbers and have been easily dispersed. Some residentsof the capital city have indicated that they are dissuaded from participating in the marches overfear of the police. An attempted march to Parliament on Monday by a few hundreddemonstrators was stopped by police who fired teargas. Government spokesman LambertMende has dismissed the opposition’s call, stating that they have threatened similar action manytimes before. Despite protests by some deputies, the law cleared a preliminary vote inParliament on Monday and if passed, it would require the central African nation to hold a censusbefore the 2016 presidential elections. In a statement, several opposition parties have disclosedthat the census would take at least four years to complete, calling it a ploy to extend thepresident’s time in power. Under the country’s current constitution, the president is barredfrom seeking a third term in office.Heavy fighting erupted in the northeastern region of the DRC on Thursday between theCongolese army and a rebel militia following a breakdown of talks. Colonel Felix Basse, themilitary spokesman for the UN mission in the Congo (MONUSCO) confirmed that fighters fromthe Ituri Patriotic Resistance Force (FRPI) advanced close to a UN camp but were repelled bypeacekeeping forces. He further disclosed that Congolese troops, who have been fightingalongside the UN force against various rebel groups that operate in the region, chased the fleeingrebels to the nearby town of Gety, capturing two rebel camps. Clashes erupted shortly afternegotiations between the rebels and the Congolese army stalled following the 5 January arrestof the rebel leader, Cobra Matata, by Congolese authorities in the nearby city of Bunia, where hehad entered talks in late November to surrender. According to Maurizio Giuliano, head of theUN humanitarian office in the Congo’s northeastern Oriental Province, the rising tensions inAveba, where some 400 rebels had met during the negotiations, has forced at least 30,000people to flee their homes over the past week. According to Giuliano, the violence has createda precarious situation and all humanitarian projects in the affected areas have been suspendedbecause of security reasons. The FRPI, which was first formed in 2002, is regarded as one of themost rapacious rebel groups that operates in the region.12 January Police in the DRC’s capital city Kinshasa used tear gas on Monday in order to disperse more than300 people protesting against a new electoral law that has been brought before parliament.Around thirty riot police fired tear-gas canisters into the crowd at around 11:40 AM (10:4087

Global Security ReportGMT), forcing demonstrators to run for shelter in the offices of opposition parties near theparliament building. Clashes broke out at midday in front of the headquarters of the Union forthe Congolese Nation (UNC). On the ground sources have reported that youths set tires ablazewhile police officers responded with more tear gas that was aimed at them. Shortly afterwards,Kinshasa’s police chief, General Celestin Kanyama, arrived on the scene accompanied by policereinforcements. Parliament, which is known as the People’s Palace, was later cordoned off bysecurity forces ahead of the start of the debate, which is set to start in the afternoon and aimedat examining a proposal to change the electoral law that was presented by the government aweek earlier. If approved, the proposed census could delay next year’s presidential elections.The country’s main opposition parties issued the call for the rally as parliament prepared todebate the legislation. Opposition parties believe that the real aim of the new measures is tokeep President Joseph Kabila in power after his mandate, which is set to expire in 2016. Sourceshave reported that the president’s regime is seeking to make the staging of the presidential andparliamentary elections, which must be held by the end of 2016, contingent on the outcome ofa census that is planned to start this year across the vast central African country. While thegovernment has indicated that it can complete the work within a year, and argues that thesurvey is needed in order to ensure fair and transparent elections, according to both theopposition and regional analysts, the census would postpone the polls by at least two years andwould keep President Kabila in office for more than fifteen years. Officials have estimated thatit would take up to three years to undertake a reliable census in a country that is still grippedby serious unrest in the east. The mineral-rich DRC has some 65 million people in a country thathas little infrastructure and where difficult communications make any census highly difficult.The situation in the DRC is being closely followed after a move by Burkina Faso’s PresidentBlaise Compaore last year to extend his own time in office led to mass rallies that swiftly forcedhim to flee.8 January On Thursday, the UN Security Council backed plans by the DRC and UN peacekeepers to begin amilitary campaign aimed to “neutralize” a Rwandan rebel group in the country’s rugged easternprovinces. A statement released by the 15-member Security Council disclosed “the FDLR hasnot only failed to unconditionally and fully surrender and demobilize, but has also continued torecruit new fighters in their ranks,” adding “the Security Council further recalls that the swiftneutralization of the FDLR is a top priority in bringing stability to and protecting the civilians ofthe DRC and the Great Lakes region.” The Council has called on the DRC’s President JosephKabila to swiftly approve and implement a joint Congolese and MONUSCO plan “to neutralizethe FDLR by commencing military operations immediately.” The statement further indicatedthat it is ready to consider targeted sanctions against individuals or entities found to besupporting the FDLR. On the ground sources have reported that the UN peacekeeping force inCongo has already begun prepatory operations ahead of an offensive that is aimed at dislodgingthe Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). According to a senior UN official,the operation will involve a special unit within MONUSCO known as the intervention brigade,which is mandated to aggressively search out and neutralize armed groups, along with regularMONUSCO peacekeepers. While President Kabila told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon onWednesday that his army is ready to help peacekeepers fight the FDLR, UN officials haveindicated that the President Kabila’s support for MONUSCO has been lacklustre so far.7 January On Wednesday, the DRC’s President Joseph Kabila told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon thathis army is ready to help peacekeepers fight Rwanda rebels in the country’s volatile easternprovinces. The UN peacekeeping force in the DRC has already begun preparatory operationsahead of a major campaign aimed at dislodging the Democratic Forces for the Liberation ofRwanda (FDLR). UN officials have indicated that active support of the Congolese armed forcesis vital for success against some 1,500 seasoned FDLR combatants spread across eastern DRC,however they have also been critical of President Kabila’s support for MONUSCO, with manyindicating that so far it has been lacklustre. Furthermore, the Congolese army has beenresponsible for several human rights violations, including a mass rape in Minova in 2012, inwhich senior officers have not been held accountable.88

Global Security Report6 January Human Rights Watch (HRW) has called for determined efforts to bring warlord Ntabo NtaberiSheka to justice for mass rape in the DRC four years after authorities ordered his detention.According to Ida Sawyer, a senior researcher for the New York-based watchdog, “an arrestwarrant alone wont stop a rebel leader like Sheka from committing atrocities,” adding “the armyand UN peacekeepers should increase their efforts to arrest him before more civilians suffer.”According to a HRW count, since authorities issued the arrest warrant for the leader of the MaiMai Sheka tribal militia in 2011, his force has killed at least seventy people, many of whom wereslaughtered with machetes. According to the rights group, “in some cases, Sheka’s fightersmutilated the bodies of those they killed and later paraded the body parts of their victimsaround town, while chanting ethnic slurs.” Officials from the HRW have indicated that Sheka’sgroup, which is active in the eastern region of the DRC, terrorised local people with systematicrape and forced conscription from communities in the unstable Walikale and Masisi territoriesof North Kivu province. According to HRW, some of the worst attacks occurred between August2012 and November 2014 in and around the town of Pinga from which Mai Mai fightersabducted dozens of women and girl, many of whom are still being held hostage. DRC authoritiesissued the arrest warrant for Shekau after an attack in which the militia under his command andtwo other groups raped nearly 400 people in 13 villages between 30 July and 2 August 2010.The rebels also razed almost 1,000 homes and businesses and led about 100 people off intoforced labour. Due to the rape accusations and other acts that could effectively constitute crimesagainst humanity, Sheka is subject to UN sanctions, which include the freezing of his assets anda worldwide travel ban. The call for his arrest comes as UN troops from the 20,000-storngMONUSCO force in the DRC took up positions on Tuesday in order to support a governmentoffensive against another rebel group that is operating in the country’s restive eastern region –the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric has told reporters that UN troops are taking up positions tosupport a planned offensive against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).On Monday, UN and Congolese forces seized several rebel bases in a separate offensive that waslaunched against a Burundi rebel group, the National Liberation Forces (FNL). According to aspokesman for MONUSCO in the DRC, troops taking part in joint operations against FNL fightersin the east of the country had taken several Hutu rebel strongholds. Lieutenant Colonel Felix-Prosper Basse has indicated that the bases are located in the South Kivu province, near theborder with Burundi. Asked whether the operations against FNL fighters would harm theplanned offensive against FDLR rebels, Colonel Patrick Opia, the operations commander for theDRC’s military (FARDC) disclosed “this operation is a warning to FDLR that FARDC and UNforces are determined to hit hard,” adding that the operation would last forty-five days and thatit could be extended if it was necessary. The UN is pushing for the disarming of dozens of rebelgroups and splinter groups that continue to operate in the eastern region of the DRC.The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is calling for a cut of 2,000 troops in the UNpeacekeeping mission that deployed in the DRC. The Secretary General made therecommendation in a strategic review of the 20,000-strong MONUCO mission, which wassubmitted to the UN Security Council last week. The review of the mission, which is the UN’slargest, also comes as peacekeepers are preparing to launch an offensive against Hutu rebels inthe eastern region of the country. The review also comes in the wake of DRC President JosephKabila recently calling for a major drawdown of the UN force, suggesting that a reduction ofmore than half of its strength be achieved by the end of 2015. In his report to the Council,Secretary General Ban concluded that cutting more than 2,000 troops “would have negativeimplications for the ability of the force to implement its mandate,” adding that instead,MONUSCO should be transformed “to reflect a more mobile and agile force, able to pre-empt orrespond to crises quickly.” According to the Secretary General, such a transformation wouldinvolve supplying peacekeepers with lighter equipment and more aircraft in order to turn theminto more rapidly deployable units. Mr Ban further noted that the deployment of a rapidresponsebrigade, composed of troops from Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania, should beextended for another year, with the unit taking the lead planning and combat role. TheCongolese government has welcomed the recommendation for a more efficient MONUSCO force.89

Global Security ReportAccording to Lambert Mende, a government spokesman, “we’ve always said MONUSCO could dobetter. More mobility, more agility and more efficiency – this meets our concerns.”5 January African leaders are set to meet later this month in Luanda, Angola in order to decide on actionto disarm Rwandan rebels based in the eastern DRC after a deadline for their surrender expired.Heads of state and government of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) alongwith the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) will meet on 15 – 16January. The deadline, which was set by African leaders, and which outlined that the DemocraticForces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Rwandan rebel group, must either disarmvoluntarily or face military action, expired on 2 January. According to South African PresidentJacob Zuma, who acts as the chair of the SADC security arm, since May 2014 only 337 rebelfighters have disarmed. This effectively represents approximately 24% of the FDLR’s estimatedtotal number of fighters and according to President Zuma “the FDLR has therefore to date notcomplied in full with the conditions imposed by the Heads of State and Government of SADC andthe ICGLR,” adding “SADC remains committed to the internationally mandated objective ofneutralizing all negative forces operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including theFDLR, and remains ready to play its fullest part in this regard.”UN officials announced Thursday that UN forces and DRC troops have seized several rebel basesin an offensive that was launched on Monday against the National Liberation Forces (FNL),which is a Burundi rebel group. A spokesman for the UN’s MONUSCO force in the DRC hasindicated that troops taking part in joint operations against FNL fighters in the eastern regionof the country have taken several Hutu rebel strongholds. According to Lieutenant ColonelFelix-Prosper Basse, the captured bases were located near the Burundi border in South Kivuprovince. Past attacks that have occurred in Burundi’s border region have been claimed by asplinter faction of the FNL, whose full name is Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People. In2009, the main body of the FNL signed a peace agreement with the Burundian government andhave since become a political party however many rebels continue to fight and last year claimedresponsibility for a number of attacks.On Monday, following five days of intense fighting, security forces in Burundi disclosed that theyhave “wiped out” a group of armed rebels who launched a cross-border attack on the countryfrom the neighbouring DRC. According to army spokesman Col. Gaspard Baratuza, 95 of thosekilled were members of a rebel group that entered Burundi from bordering Congo, adding thatnine rebels were also arrested from the group, which has yet to be identified. Two governmentsoldiers had also been killed in the fighting, which started a week ago some 60 kilometres (37miles) northwest of the capital Bujumbura. Burundian officials and eyewitnesses have reportedthat a group of unidentified rebels had crossed into Burundi overnight Monday from the DRC’seastern Kivu region, which has been plagued by instability as the area is home to dozens of rebelgroups. Sources have reported that troops had seized documents allowing the army to obtaininformation on the size of the force and the identify of their leaders however officials have notdisclosed the identity of the group. Security forces then fought to prevent the rebels fromreaching the Kibira forest, which is an area that has in the past been used by rebel groups as abase to launch further attacks inside Burundi. According to one military source, “the securityforces, backed by the local population, surrounded the group in Murwi commune, and chasedthem without respite, giving them no time to recover or sleep.” Burundi’s government releasedinformation about the fighting after a civil society organization in Burundi accused governmentforces of quickly burying the bodies in a bid to avoid scrutiny from rights groups stating that thegovernment had executed the rebels after they had surrendered. Vital Nshimirimana, the headof the local civil society platform Forum Pour le Renforcement de la Societe Civilie (FORSC),called for investigations into reports that the army had violated the rights of those caught. Col.Baratuza however has denied these accusations, stating, “no one was killed after surrenderingor after being arrested.” According to Col. Baratuza, between 180 to 200 rebels were thoughtto have crossed from eastern Congo into Burundi where they launched the attack.90

Global Security Report3 January The DRC’s government announced Friday that it was ready to launch military operations againstRwandan Hutu rebels in its eastern region after most of them missed the deadline to disarm andeither return home or go into exile. In a statement read on state television, the governmentdisclosed, “the option of disarming (the rebels) by force is now inevitable and all thepreparations to do so have been made.” While the statement did not provide any additionaldetails pertaining to the possible launch of a military operation, the rebels are known to operatein the North and South Kivu provinces, which lie on the DRC’s border with Burundi and Rwanda.If an assault does go ahead, then the DRC’s government will likely heavily rely on the UNpeacekeeping mission, known as MONUSCO, as well as its Force Intervention Brigade, which isa unit within the mission that has the mandate to track down rebels. In 2013, the 3,000-strongbrigade recorded significant successes when it helped DRC troops defeat Tutsi-led M23 rebels,which had seized control of areas of North Kivu province. According to sources however, “theprospects of an immediate and quick operation against the FDLR are complicated by rivalriesbetween the various regional powers involved…” coupled with the fact that the terrain, whichthe rebels occupy, is known to be rugged and the group has a history of targeting civilians inrevenge when they are attacked. Furthermore, the UN mission in the DRC is already stretchedas it has been tasked with tracking down members of the Ugandan ADF-NALU rebel group thathas been accused of killing dozens in the eastern region of the DRC in recent weeks. Despitethis, the DRC has the backing of the region as international envoys for the Great Lakes region onFriday called for immediate action, with officials indicating that the lack of voluntarydisarmament left no alternative to the military option, adding that FDLR rebels must now beneutralized. Rwandan officials have warned that the rebels have taken advantage of thedisarmament window in order to consolidate their positions. According to the Congo’sgovernment, a six-month ultimatum set by regional leaders expired at midnight and just 300 ofthe estimated 1,500 rebels have disarmed. The fighters include some of the remnants of theHutu militia that engaged in the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. The rebels have also been at thecentre of two decades of violence that has plagued the DRC’s eastern mineral-rich region.2 January On Monday, the DRC’s President Joseph Kabila is set to convene a major political meeting in hisnative province of Katanga, amidst controversy that he is possibly seeking a third term in office.According to a source in the president’s office, the aim of the meetings is to “unite all Katangans”and to “hold consultations on the subject of a third mandate for Joseph Kabila in 2016,” whichwould effectively call for constitutional change. Over the past several days, the president hasbeen staying in the mineral-rich south-eastern province along with Interior Minister EvaristeBoshab. According to sources, they were to be joined by about fifty parliamentary deputies andsenators from Katanga. While the DRC’s president has yet to officially announce whether he willseek office for a third time, tensions across the DRC have already risen over fears that thegovernment may choose to alter the constitution. The current constitution bars the presidentfrom running for a third five-year term however the opposition has indicated that thepresident’s backers are planning to either revise the basic law or to hold a census across thecountry, which would inevitably postpone any elections beyond 2016. Many fear that similarlarge-scale protests, such as those that occurred in late October in Burkina Faso, could erupt,further destabilizing the country.Equatorial Guinea15 January Opposition parties in Equatorial Guinea have called for residents to boycott matches of theAfrican Cup of Nations in protest against the human rights situation in the country. In astatement issued just two days before the competition gets underway, the parties “ask citizensnot to go to football stadiums during the African Cup of Nations, which is going to make uspoorer and more enslaved.” Andres Esono Ondo, spokesman for the three opposition parties,has also called for the immediate release of two opposition figures held in Bata, the country’seconomic capital. Ondo stated Thursday “there is no freedom of speech, the surviving mediaare at the exclusive service of the (ruling) PDGE Party. Obiang blocks opposition websites andothers that criticize him.” This appeal however has minimal hope of gaining political traction asit was launched by three opposition parties – the Convergence for Social Democracy (CPDS), the91

Global Security ReportPopular Union (UP), and the Republic Democratic Force (FDR) – which have only oneparliamentary deputy between them.14 January Police in Equatorial Guinea have arrested an opposition politician and a human rights activistwho had called for a boycott of the Africa Cup of Nations, which is due to begin on Saturday.According to Fulgencio Ondo, spokesman for the Popular Union (UP) party, “our comradeCelestino Nvo Okenve was arrested here in Bata by police (…) on Wednesday because he washanding out flyers and T-shirts urging people not to go to the stadiums as the president hasasked.” The spokesman further indicated, “President Obiang looks out only for his politicalinterests and not the wellbeing of the population.” The opposition has demanded that NvoOkenve be released immediately. Human rights activist Santiago Martin, an active member ofthe main opposition party, the Convergence for Social Democracy (CPDS), was also arrested onWednesday. According to the secretary general of the CPDS, Andres Esono Ondo, “somebodyclose to the governor of Bata accused him of planning a demonstration of January 17 when theCup begins…Bata’s police commissioner had decided to hold him in a cell until the end” of thefootball tournament. The opposition is opposed to the country hosting this year’s continentalfootball tournament, which is set to take place from 17 January until 8 February, over fears thatthere is a high risk of the spread of the deadly Ebola virus, which has severely affected threeWest African countries over the past year, and which has claimed over 8,000 lives. EquatorialGuinea was handed hosting privileges in November 2014 after Morocco had initially requestedthat the Confederation of African Football postpone the event in order to avoid any risk of aspread of the deadly virus. That request however was dismissed and Morocco was removedfrom the competition. In response to fears that the deadly Ebola virus may spread to EquatorialGuinea, the country’s government has taken several preventative measures, including hiring theexpertise of a team of Cuban doctors.Gabon17 January Gabon’s judiciary on Friday released 101 opposition supporters who have been detained atLibreville’s main prison since 23 December 2014 for participating in an unauthorizedopposition meeting. According to a judicial source, all of the detainees were found not guilty ofbeing armed at the meeting, the charge for which they had been detained, however some weregiven prison sentences, ranging between three to four months, while others will have to pay afine of 180,000 CFA Francs (US $300). Those expatriates who hold Nigerian nationality, andwho were prosecuted in the same case, will be expelled from Gabon and banned from living onGabonese national territory for a period of five years. They will also be required to pay the180,000 CFA Francs fine. While the prosecutor had initially requested three-year sentences, thesuspects’ lawyers maintained that their clients were innocent and should be releasedimmediately. The opposition meeting last month was organized in a bid to push President Alibongo Ondimba to resign from power, with sources reporting that the opposition was planningto use the meeting “to en the reign of the Bongos since 1967” through a popular revolt.15 January Gabon’s leading opposition figure has been charged with imprisoning and torturing people whoattacked his home and risks up to ten years in prison and possible elimination from apresidential election, which is expected to take place in 2016. According to state prosecutorSidoni Ouwe, Jean Ping, 72, a former head of the African Union (AU), was charged with illegalimprisonment, inhuman treatment and torture of some of the people who threw rocks at hisresidence on Monday. Mr Ping, the head of an opposition coalition, indicated Monday that hishouse had been attacked by at least 200 people who had been sent by an adviser to PresidentAli Bongo. The government has denied this accusation. Mr Ping, who has not been taken intocustody, has not commented on the charges. An ally for former president Omar Bongo, thecurrent president’s father, Mr Ping has helped lead protests in recent weeks over a range ofgrievances and trade union disputes, including one protest in December where a demonstratorwas killed. The protests have caused a temporary reduction in Gabon’s 230,000 barrels per dayoutput of crude oil.Republic of Congo92

Global Security Report17 January On Friday, the Republic of Congo’s main opposition party, the Pan-African Union for SocialDemocracy (UPADS), confirmed that it will not take part in any national dialogue whose agendafocuses on amendment or non-amendment of the country’s constitution. Speaking inBrazzaville, the UPAD’s first secretary Pascal Tsaty Mabiala said “no to amendment of theConstitution! No to participation in any dialogue whose agenda is not exclusively to discusspreparation for the 2016 polls,” adding “UPADS will strictly limit talks to one issue:management of elections. This is because maintaining constitutional order is a non-negotiableissue.” The idea of holding a national dialogue has been put forth by the ruling Congolese LabourParty, which has expressed its support for an amendment to the current constitution. Under theRepublic of Congo’s constitution, which came into effect in 2002, presidential terms are limitedto two and the age of presidential candidates is limited to 70 years. These constitutionalprovisions cannot be amended. Having been re-elected in 2009, President Denis SassouN’Guesso, 71, is currently serving his second and last seven-year term that will end in July 2016.Sao Tome and PrincipeEast AfricaBurundiNo Major Incidents to Report.30 January Burundi’s ruling party announced Friday that it is “ready to compromise” with the oppositionin order to ensure peaceful elections. The CNDD-FDD party of President Pierre Nkurunziza, whois expected to run for a third term in office despite opponents’ claims that this would violate thecountry’s constitution, met with opposition parties in order to discuss the voter registrationprocess. This has been a hotly contested issue as opposition parties have accused thegovernment of “massive fraud” and have demanded the resignation of the ElectoralCommission, alleging that there was mass distribution of identification cards to supporters ofthe ruling party. The meeting, which occurred Thursday, was the first time that the rivals havesat together since the claims of fraud emerged. Opposition politicians have indicated that theyare suspicious of this compromise. Parliamentary and presidential elections are due to takeplace in May and June.16 January Opposition leaders confirmed Friday that authorities in Burundi have sentenced a topopposition chief to five years in prison for bribery and have arrested another for rebel links,accusing the government of eliminating rivals ahead of the upcoming elections. FredericBamvuginyumvira, a former Burundian vice-president and currently deputy leader of the Frontfor Democracy (Frodebu) party, was sentenced on Thursday to five years in prison for bribery.He has stated that the sentence, which was handed down by the country’s anti-corruption court,was made to “remove me from the electoral race.” Also on Thursday, Frodebu youth leaderPatrick Nkurunziza was arrested. The two leaders are the latest of several politicians who arefacing criminal charges ahead of the elections, which are due to take place in May and June. Theopposition has maintained that the arrests are the government’s way of blocking them fromrunning for seats, with critics saying that the government is doing all it can in order to sidelinepolitical challengers by carrying out arrests, harassments and through a clampdown on freespeech. The action against the two leaders also comes amidst growing fears of the risk ofviolence ahead of the elections.12 January On Monday, Burundi’s government boycotted the launch of the UN observer mission forelections, due to take place in May and June this year, as concern increases that violence mayerupt during the key polls. Foreign affairs spokesman Daniel Kabuto disclosed that there were“technical problems” concerning the exact role of the mission, stating that it does not have theauthority to verify the final results, something it says can be done only by the electoral mission,known as CENI. According to Mr Kabuto, “we asked for an election observation mission, not fora validation of the elections…for the government, the validation of elections is the prerogativeof Ceni, its very clear, there cannot be any debate about that.” While officials from the93

Global Security Reportgovernment did not attend the launch, opposition leaders, civil society activists and foreigndiplomats attended the ceremony, known by its French acronym as MENUB.6 January Police officials reported Tuesday that three ruling party activists have been shot dead bygunmen in a bar in eastern Burundi. Sources have reported that five men dressed in armyfatigues tied up the CNDD-FDD party supporters before killing them on Sunday night. They thenwent to the CNDD-FDD office in Gisuru, near the border with Tanzania, and burned the partyflag. Party spokesman Onesime Nduwimana blamed “the extremist fringe of the opposition”bent on sabotaging elections due later this year. He further indicated that they wanted todestabilize the country by “sowing hatred” and provoking revenge attacks. The attack followsheavy clashes that erupted last week in northwestern Burundi between the army and rebelswho officials indicate crossed from neighboring DRC. On Monday, an army spokesman disclosedthat 95 fighters from the so-far unidentified rebel group had died during the fighting, whichoccurred in Cibioke province. According to Col Gaspard Baratuza, the motive of the rebels wasnot immediately clear however there are suspicions that the group may have been planning todisrupt the elections. Mr Nkurunziza, a former rebel leader and CNDD-FDD leader, is widelyexpected to seek another term in officer however he has not confirmed whether he will do so.The ruling party and its opponents have disagreed over whether President Nkurunziza can runfor a third term. The peace accord, which ended the conflict, states that there is a two-term limithowever the country’s constitution is open to interpretation.4 January A top military source has disclosed that at least 100 rebels have been killed after a cross-borderattack against Burundi from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to a general inthe Burundian army, the attack carried out by an unidentified rebel group had been defeatedafter five days of heavy fighting in the border area, just north of the capital Bujumbura. Thegeneral indicated, “after five days of non-stop military operations, the armed group whichattacked Burundi has been wiped out by our security forces. In total, we killed 105 of them andcaptured four, out of a total of 121 who entered Cibitoke province from the DR Congo,” adding“we also seized a 60 mm mortar, five rocket launchers, machine guns and more than 100 assaultrifles.” Army spokesman Colonel Gaspard Baratuza delinked to comment officially on thefighting “while military operations in the area are still in progress.” Sources have indicated thatthe rebels had planned a major offensive to destabilize the country ahead of elections, which aredue to take place later this year.DjiboutiEritreaEthiopiaNo major incidents to report.No major incidents to report.16 January According to reports, an Ethiopian court has jailed three British men, handing down sentencesbetween four and six years in prison, for allegedly plotting to “establish an Islamic state inEthiopia.” Sources have disclosed that Mohamed Sharif and Mohamad Ahemd, who had bothbeen reportedly living in London, were both sentenced on Wednesday to six years and eightmonths in jail after the court found them guilty of receiving military training in neighboringKenya. They have been accused of planning attacks with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF),which is a separatist movement that is opposed to the Ethiopian government. Mohamed AliAdros, who reportedly is from Somalia’s northern breakaway region of Somaliland, wassentenced to four years and six months, with the court accusing him of having links with Islamistgroups operating in Yemen as well as with OLF. A statement read out on Ethiopia’s Fana radiostation stated, “the suspects were apprehended when they tried to execute their terrorist plansafter travelling to Ethiopia.” Britain’s Foreign Office has confirmed “the detention of a British94

Global Security ReportKenyanational” in Ethiopia while diplomatic sources have confirmed local media reports that all threemen are British.14 January One Kenyan soldier and five suspected Islamist insurgents loyal to Somalia’s al-Shabaab fighterswere killed Wednesday in a battle that erupted in Kenya’s coastal Lamu district. According toan army official, Kenyan troops, who are part of the UN-backed African Union (AU) force that iscurrently deployed across Somalia to fight the militant group, were travelling northwards closeto the Somali border when they were attacked. In a statement released late Wednesday, armyspokesman David Onboyo disclosed, “a firefight ensued and five suspected al-Shabaab militantswere killed,” adding that one Kenyan soldier was killed and three others were wounded in thefighting. According to Onboyo, “some militants escaped with multiple injuries, and immediatelyan operation was launched in pursuit.” Wednesday’s attack occurred on the mainland in Lamucountry, near Basuma, which is located over 60 kilometres (40 miles) north of Lamu Island, aUNESCO World Heritage site that has been targeted by a string of attacks in recent months.12 January Police officials reported Monday that gunmen believed to be members of an extremist grouphave shot dead a pastor in Kenya’s coastal town of Mombasa. Henry Ondiek, who is in charge ofthe criminal investigation, disclosed that the pastor was shot at the entrance of the MvitaPrimary School, which hosts the Maximum Revival Centre, a mosque and another church. WhileMr Ondiek did not disclose who was responsible for the attack, the incident follows a pattern ofgun and explosive attacks that have occurred in recent months in Kenya’s coastal region andwhich have been blamed on al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab has vowed retribution for the presence ofKenyan troops fighting the militant group, which is based in neighboring Somalia. Kenya hassuffered a string of deadly attacks since it deployed troops to Somalia in October 2011.2 January Kenya’s High Court has suspended some sections of a controversial new security law that wasenacted two weeks ago amidst fierce opposition. High Court Judge George Odunga has stated,“we cannot limit the freedoms and inalienable rights in the pretext of fighting terrorism, whichmust be done in the confines of the law.” The court has blocked eight clauses of the new securitylaw until a legal challenge, which was mounted by the opposition and rights groups, is heard.The court has suspended measures that could jail journalists who “undermine investigations orsecurity operations relating to terrorism,” and limit the number of refugees in the country.Opposition leader Raila Odinga and his supporters cheered in court as the judge handed downhis ruling. Interior ministry spokesman Mwenda Njoka has indicated that the government willappeal against the ruling. While the spokesman downplayed the significance of the ruling,noting that only eight clauses had been suspended out of more than 100, the High Court rulingis nevertheless a big blow to the government, which has insisted that these laws are not onlygood, but necessary in order to counter the growing threat emanating from al-Shabaab.1 January On Thursday, gunmen attacked a truck carrying Kenyan soldiers near the border with Somalia.According to police officials, three soldiers were seriously wounded in the attack. No group hasclaimed responsibility for the attack however the incident was similar to other attacks carriedout by al-Shabaab militants. The attack took place in the village of Mangai in Lamu County, aregion of the East African nation that has been previously attacked by al-Shabaab. The militantgroup, which is based in neighboring Somalia, has indicated that they will continue their assaultsin a bid to persuade Kenya to pull its troops out of Somalia, where its forces have joined AfricanUnion (AU) troops battling the militants.Madagascar25 January Madagascar’s President Hery Rajaonarimampianina on Sunday unveiled a new governmentafter the previous one resigned over increasing public anger at its handling of recurring poweroutages. The team of thirty ministers will be led by Air Commodore Jean Ravelonarivo. Twentytwoof the ministers, including the minister of mining and petroleum, were part of the previous95

Global Security Reportgovernment while the ministries of health, culture, trade and the environment have beenreplaced.22 January In what will likely extend uncertainty in a country that is struggling to repair its economy,sources have revealed that Madagascar’s opposition will challenge the appointment of PrimeMinister Jean Ravelonarivo in the country’s constitutional court after the administrative courtindicated it would not hear the case. Ravelonarivo, an air force commander and businessman,was sworn in on 17 January after being named by President Hery Rajaonarimampianina. He haspromised to work swiftly in order to boost the country’s economy, which has suffered in thewake of the 2009 coup that drove donors and investors away. Andry Rajoelina, who becamepresident after the coup and who now heads the largest party in parliament, howeverchallenged the appointment in the country’s administrative court, arguing that it isunconstitutional. The court however ruled late Wednesday that it had no jurisdiction over thecase and that it would not hear the challenge. An opposition spokesman confirmed that theparty will now take the case to the constitutional court. Several political analysts have indicatedthat Rajoelina’s legal bid is aimed at security additional seats for his party in cabinet.17 January According to a toll published by authorities on Wednesday, a tropical storm, which battered thecountry over the weekend, has left 46 people dead. According to a statement released by thecountry’s national disaster management office, more than 120,000 people were also affected byStorm Chedza, which lashed the Indian Ocean island with heavy rains for days. Update (26January) – The death toll from flooding across the country, following a tropical storm last week,has climbed to 68 as the Indian Ocean island nation faces more storms. According to the lateststatistics released by the National Office for Disaster Management, at least 131,460 people havebeen registered as “storm victims,” while 45,600 people have been forced to flee their homes inthe wake of Tropical Storm Chedza.16 January On Thursday, a former president of Madagascar, who plunged the country into chaos after hestaged a coup in 2009, rejected the newly appointed prime minister, alleging proceduralirregularities. Andry Rajoelina stated “we do not accept the appointment of the prime minister,”claiming that the naming of the new premier Air Commodore Jean Ravelonarivo flouted theconstitution. On Wednesday, Ravelonarivo was named premier by President HeryRajaonarimampianina. He succeeded Roger Kolo who, along with his cabinet, resigned onMonday following heavy criticism for its response to repeated electricity failures. In recentweeks, Madagascans took to the streets to protest the rolling power blackouts. The protests ledto the deaths of two people. Despite on 15 percent of Madagascar on the grid, electricitycompany Jirama has been struggling to pay oil suppliers on time, which has resulted in recurrentcuts.13 January Madagascar’s government has resigned amidst increasing criticism and violent protests overthe cabinet’s handling of recurring power blackouts. President Hery Rajaonarimampianinamade the announcement in a decree released overnight, stating that he was in the process ofappointing a new government. According to the statement, “until the formation of a newgovernment of the republic, members of the outgoing government will remain in charge.” Whilethe president did not provide a reason for the resignation, the government of Prime MinisterRoger Kolo has come under heavy criticism over its handling of the ongoing electricity failures.Energy Minister Richard Fihenena was fired two months ago over his inability to solve the issue.Kolo was appointed premier in April 2014, five months after democratic elections brought to anend a political crisis that was sparked by the 2009 coup.6 January A protester has been killed after police officers attempted to put down a demonstration againstrecurring electricity cuts in the eastern city of Toamasina. According to family members of theman who was killed on 3 January, his death was caused by a beating from special police forcesdeployed to contain the demonstrations. While Madagascar police officials have confirmed thata protester, who had been arrested, died in hospital, they have died that any beating hadoccurred. The death is the second to arise from protests in the port city over repeated power96

Global Security ReportMalawiblackouts, after an aggressive police response to a violent demonstration on 23 December thatleft one person dead.17 January Malawi has deported four M23 rebels and more than eighty other DRC nationals who enteredthe country illegally using unchartered roots. On Saturday, Department of Immigration’srepatriation officer Vincent Chalira confirmed that Malawian officials intercepted two separategroups of Congolese asylum seekers who had attempted to enter the country illegally throughthe Chiponde border in the Mangochi district and Songwe in Karona. According to Mr Chalira,“after screening them we discovered that some of them were affiliated to the M23 rebel group.Since they entered the country illegally, we deported them back through the Tanzania border.”M23 rebels have been fighting the DRC government in the eastern region of the country.According to Mr Chalira, scores of asylum seekers from the DRC, along with Eritrea and Ethiopia,have been flocking into the country, which has been seen as a safe haven to them, adding “thecountry’s borders are long and wide, such that people are mostly being helped by somenationals of neighboring countries to cross into Malawi.” He further disclosed that the Malawiangovernment is planning to relocate its refugee camp from Dzaleka in Dowa district to Karonga,a district that borders Tanzania.16 January Malawian authorities have indicated that flooding in the country has killed more than 176people and displaced at least 200,000 others, leaving homes and schools submerged in waterand roads washed away. According to Vice President Saulos Chilima, dozens of people aremissing, with at least 153 unaccounted for, adding, a joint operation between the police and thearmy is currently underway to rescue hundreds trapped in their villages by flood waters causedby weeks of heavy rain. The president has appealed for international assistance. Flooding hasaffected half of the country’s 28 districts, mostly in the southern region of the country. Roadsand rail lines have been cut off by flooded rivers, which according to officials, have also sweptaway surprised bystanders, people fleeing in canoes and sleeping families in their homes.Officials have warned that more heavy rain is expected.15 January UK forces are to train troops for a peacekeeping operation in the DRC. According to sources,around twenty soldiers based in Northern Ireland will be deployed to Malawi where they willlead the training operation ahead of the deployment of international troops to the DRC.According to the UK Ministry of Defence, the UK soldiers, from the Royal Scots Borderers 1 stBattalion, the Royal Regiment of Scotland and the Second Battalion the Rifles, will spend twomonths in Africa. Malawi Defence Forces are hoping to take control of parts of the country. TheUN has sanctioned operations to dislodge Rwandan rebels in the eastern region of the country.MauritiusMozambiqueNo major incidents to report.19 January Mozambique’s disaster management services announced Monday that the death toll fromflooding in parts of the country has risen to 71. According to National Institute of DisasterManagement spokeswoman Rita Almeida, “from the data collected up to last night (Sunday), theprovisional toll of victims has risen to 71 since January 12.” According to the spokeswoman,most of those killed were from the Zambezia province in the center of the south African nation,adding that according to information collected by the service, “about 80,000 people have beenaffected by the floods in the center and north of the country….” Of those, 30,000 people arebeing accommodated in 43 shelters. Emergency services are remaining on high alert as morerain is expected to fall in the coming week, with officials stating, “the situation is worrying.”Update (28 January) – A senior government official disclosed Wednesday that more than 100people have been killed by the floods in Mozambique.97

Global Security Report18 January Mozambique’s opposition party, Renamo, has reacted angrily to the composition of the newgovernment appointed by President Filipe Nyusi, stating that it contradicts the president’spledge to promote peace. According to Renamo spokesman Antonio Muchanga, the newgovernment “…is a Frelimo-only government,” adding “all the names on this list are from(Nyusi’s) Frelimo party. It has nothing to do with a government of ‘inclusion.’” On Saturday, thepresident named 61-year-old agro-economist and former diplomat Carlos Agostinho do Rosarioas prime minister, in a government that will have 22 ministers down from 28 in the previousgovernment. In his inaugural speech on Thursday, President Nyusi stated that he was open toproposals from opposition political parties and pledged, “to open constructive dialogue with allpolitical forces and civil society organizations to promote peace.” The main opposition partyhowever has indicated that the president “…didn’t consult anyone, not one political party, notone organization from civil society.”12 January On Monday, Mozambique’s main opposition party Renamo boycotted the opening of parliamentin protest of last October’s election results, with the party’s leader threatening to create aparallel government. On Monday, all of the party’s 89 lawmakers failed to attend theinauguration of the parliament in Maputo. Afonso Dhlakama has refused to accept the resultsof the elections, claiming widespread fraud and irregularities. He has now threatened to createa parallel government in the central and gas-rich northern regions of the country. Over theweekend, during a meeting that was held in central Beira province, Dhlakama announced“Renamo will form provincial governments in six provinces (out of 11)…” adding that he “…willbecome the president of central and northern Mozambique,” a move that would effectivelycreate a separate state from the country.6 January On Tuesday, police in Mozambique arrested a senior official of Renamo, the country’s largestopposition party, on charges of inciting violence amidst renewed political tensions between thegovernment and the rebel group. Police spokesman Orlando Mudumane confirmed, “AntonioMuchanga was arrested this morning at a gas station” in Matola, a town located on the outskirtsof the seaside capital Maputo. Muchanga, who is the spokesman for the Renamo party, has beenaccused of making speeches “inciting violence” and organizing an “illegal demonstration” afterRenamo staged countrywide protests over the past weekend. The demonstrations weresparked by last week’s confirmation by an electoral court that the long-ruling Frelimo party hadwon the presidential and legislative elections in October. Despite the electoral authorities’ruling, Afonso Dhlakama, the leader of Renamo, has refused to accept the results and hasthreatened to create a parallel government. Update (7 January) – According to local mediareports, Mozambique police have released Antonio Muchanga just one day after he was arrestedon charges of inciting violence.Rwanda15 January On Thursday, Rwanda’s president voiced renewed frustration over what he states is long-terminaction over Rwandan Hutu rebel operating in Democratic Republic of Congo. President PaulKagame indicated that while the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) hadmissed a deadline to disarm and were now facing an offensive by the UN mission in the DRC,MONUSCO, he was far from optimistic about the prospect of decisive action. Speaking at a newsconference, President Kagame stated that he was not confident “that things are going to workout the way they should,” adding “we’ve been with the FDLR for decades…and what has beenplaying out relating to the FDLR has not been helpful at all.” Rwanda’s president also accusedregional players of making “all kinds of excuses when it comes to (dealing with the) FDLR.” Lastweek, Martin Kobler, head of MONUSCO, announced that the UN and DRC forces are preparingfor a confrontation with rebels after they missed the 2 January deadline to turn themselves in.Somalia22 January At least five people were killed Thursday in a suicide car bombing that targeted a hotel inMogadishu on the eve of a visit to the Somali capital by Turkey’s president. Local police officialMohamed Adan confirmed “five people were killed in the attack, among them three security98

Global Security Reportguards,” adding “the attacker drove a car loaded with explosives aiming at the gate of the hotelbut did not manage to get inside. The explosion partially destroyed the perimeter.” The areaaround the hotel was quickly sealed off, with police firing shots to keep locals away. Accordingto sources at the hotel, which is located close to the heavily-fortified presidential palace, therewere around seventy members of a Turkish delegation at the hotel at the time of the bombing.None of them were killed or seriously injured in the blast. Sources have disclosed that many ofthe Turkish officials inside the hotel were security personnel preparing for the President RecepTayyip Erdogan’s arrival. Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the attack. TurkishPresident Erdogan, whose country is a major investor in Somalia, is due to arrive in Mogadishuon Friday in what will be a rare visit by a foreign leader. Despite the attack, officials haveindicated that his trip will go ahead as planned.21 January On Wednesday, Somalia’s al-Shabaab, which is one of al-Qaeda’s main affiliates in Africa, urgedsupporters in Europe to follow the example of Islamist gunmen who carried out attacks in Paristwo weeks ago. Al-Shabaab, who have called the attack on the Charlie Hebdo satirical weekly inParis a “heroic operation” against a “lair of evil and center of disbelief,” offered a specificwarning to France. A statement released by the militant group read “we warn France and thosewho tread her course about the implications of their hostility towards Islam and theconsequences of their oppression and belligerence against Muslims.” The militant group hasstated that the attacks, in which seventeen people died in three days of bloodshed, were “worthyof being emulated,” adding “we also take this opportunity to thank our brothers, al-Qaeda in theArabian Peninsula, who have been – and continue to be – the pioneers of external operationsthat target the heart of the Crusader enemies.” Al-Shabaab, which controls large areas of centraland southern Somalia, are reported to have close links to al-Qaeda fighters in neighboringYemen, where one of the two brothers who carried out the attacks is believed to have trained.Al-Shabaab were also linked to Mohamed Geele, a Somali man who was convicted of the 2010axe attack against Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, who faced numerous death threats sincehis caricature of the Prophet Mohammed appeared in the Danish daily Jyllands Posten in 2005.19 January A Somali official and two of his guards were killed Monday when their car struck a landmine inMogadishu. According to security sources, the landmine explosion targeted Mr Ali Adown, thedistrict commissioner of the southeastern city of Agooye. The explosion left two passersbyinjured and was followed by gunfire. Government troops arrived on the scene shortly after theexplosion and closed off the area to vehicles. There has been no claim of responsibility for theattack.The government of Somalia has increased security measures ahead of Turkish President RecepDayyib Erdogan’s official tour of the capital Mogadishu later this week. Sources have reportedthat security personnel have been deployed to sensitive areas and along the roads that lead tothe capital’s airport and presidential palace, with officers checking all cars and vehicles. Policeand other security personnel in several parts of Mogadishu have been placed on high alert. Adelegation from the Turkish government, composed of diplomats and security officials, is dueto arrive in Mogadishu on Monday in order to assess the security situation. It will be the secondtime that Turkey’s President has visited Somalia in four years. He is expected to hold talks withhis Somali counterpart along with other government officials, with talks focusing on bilateralrelations. In 2011, he became the first major Western leader in decades to visit the Horn ofAfrica nation. That visit was designed to demonstrate Turkey’s readiness to help victims of adevastating famine but also to showcase the government’s ambitions of becoming a majorpolitical and economic play in Africa. Update (23 January) – Turkish President Recep TayyipErdogan on Friday postponed his planned trip to Somalia in order to attend the funeral of SaudiArabia’s King Abdullah. President Erdogan, who is currently on a tour of Africa, was due totravel later Friday to Somalia, however instead, he will go to the Saudi capital after completingan official visit to Ethiopia and will complete the day in Djibouti. Officials have indicated thatthe Turkish President will visit Somalia on 25 January following his visit to Djibouti.17 January Officials indicated on Saturday that Somalia’s new prime minister has dissolved his cabinet dueto strong opposition from parliament over the large list that was unveiled less than a week ago.99

Global Security ReportPrime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, who was appointed last month after adamaging spat between his predecessor and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been givenanother two weeks to come up with a new cabinet list. Parliament speaker Mohamed OsmanJawari told deputies Saturday “the prime minister has dissolved the new cabinet list he hasannounced recently and is asking for fourteen more days to form another government.” In aletter to parliament that was read out by Mr Jawari, the new prime minister disclosed that hehad taken into account the “feelings and emotions of the lawmakers,” adding that his decisionto retract the list effectively means that he will avoid what would be a highly damaging noconfidencevote. Last week, Prime Minister Sharmarke presented a large cabinet composed ofsixty people, including 26 ministers, 25 deputies and nine state ministers. This is an increase offive posts from the previous cabinet.12 January Somalia’s newly appointed prime minister has named a cabinet of sixty people as he warned ofthe “huge task” ahead to bring peace to the war-torn country. Prime Minister Omar AbdirashidAli Sharmarke, who was endorsed by the country’s parliament last month after the presidentfell out with the pervious premier amidst bitter infighting, released his choice of names forlawmakers. The sixty members include 26 ministers, 25 deputies and nine state ministers, anincrease of five posts from the previous cabinet. Many of those named were present in theprevious cabinet. Somalia is due to vote on a new constitution next year ahead of presidentialelections in 2016, however al-Shabaab continues to pose a major threat as it continues to stageregular attacks in the capital city and in the southern regions of the country.Foreign Ministers from seven countries in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development(IGAD) met in the Somali capital over the weekend for the first time in nearly 25 years. The highlevel session in Mogadishu brought together top diplomats from Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya,Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda. The trade group’s talks focused on the political andsecurity progress that has been achieved in the Horn of Africa nation along with the anticipatedpresidential elections, which are due to take place in 2016. Somali President Hassan SheikhMohamud welcomed the IGAD delegation and thanked the regional bloc for selecting Mogadishuas this year’s host capital, stating, “this IGAD council ministerial session is significant becauseit’s the first time IGAD member states at this level are disclosing Somalia’s political mattersinside Somalia.” The president also thanked IGAD member states for assisting in thestabilization of Somalia – four members of the regional bloc have contributed troops to theAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Speaking during the session, Ethiopian ForeignMinister Tedros Adhanom, who is the chair of the IGAD Council of Ministers, indicated that theIGA regional bloc, along with the international community, have both witnessed the progressthat has been achieved in Somalia over the past several years, and has reiterated the bloc’scontinued commitment to the country’s security. The top UN envoy to Somalia, AmbassadorNicholas Kay, echoed the Ethiopian Foreign Minister’s statement, stating that Mogadishu’ssuccessful hosting of the 53 rd IGAD summit is a clear indication of progress, adding, “it showsthat peace and security is returning to Somalia. It shows that Somalia is returning to thecommunity of nations. It is now able to operate as a full member of IGAD and host IGAD councilministers.” At the conclusion of the session, Somali President Mohamud thanked theinternational community and paid a special tribute to the IGAD, stating “following the positivedevelopments over the past two years, achieved with the support of our international partnersand in particular IGAD member states, we have to continue working tougher…towards theimplementation of the agenda on the federal government of Somalia’s political way forward.”10 January Police officials reported Sunday that a remote-controlled bomb hit a vehicle in a troop convoyin the southern Somali port city of Kismayo. Three soldiers were killed in the attack. Localresidents reported that troops in the convoy opened fire after the blast went of, killing twowomen who were passing by. Ismail Hussein, a police officer in the city, has rejected this claim,stating “the forces did not kill residents after the blast.” Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibilityfor the attack, which hit the convoy as it was driving through Gulwade village in Kismayo lateon Saturday.100

Global Security Report9 January Large areas of the capital Mogadishu were placed under lockdown Friday ahead of the firstmeeting of a regional east African trade block. Daud Aweys, spokesman for the presidentialpalace, has indicated, “security has been tightened because of the IGAD (IntergovernmentalAuthority on Development) delegation.” According to the spokesman, “the agenda of themeeting includes security, political reconciliation and other key issues.” Dozens of heavilyarmed soldiers and police patrolled the streets Friday, where al-Shabaab militants have carriedout regular bombings and killings. On the ground sources have reported that all roads acrossthe capital city have been closed and that movement is nearly impossible. Representativeshave already begun to arrive for one of the largest and most profile meetings to be held inMogadishu for years. Ministers from Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, who have allcontributed troops to the 22,000-strong African Union (AU) in Somalia, are expected to attendSaturday’s IGAD talks. Representatives from Sudan and South Sudan are also believed to beattending.On Friday, al-Shabaab praised the massacre at the Charlie Hebdo satirical weekly in Paris,calling the act “heroic.” In a commentary, Radio Andalus, the official mouthpiece of the militantgroup, stated “they made millions of Muslims happy by taking action. Some misguided peopleclaim that freedom of expression was attacked, but that is not the case, and the two heroicpeople acted accordingly.” It further stated that the satirical magazine had “insulted ourprophet and annoyed millions of Muslims,” describing the attackers as “our two brothers (who)were the first to take revenge.” In line with earlier reports, the radio also noted that the twobrothers had “declared that they are part of al-Qaeda,” the Islamist network to which al-Shabaabis also affiliated. Al-Shabaab, who control large areas of southern Somalia, are reported to haveclose links with al-Qaeda fighters in neighboring Yemen, where one of the two brotherssuspected of carrying out the attacks is believed to have trained.7 January According to the African Union’s (AU) special envoy a military offensive by Somali and AU forceshas pushed al-Shabaab militants into two dwindling pockets of territory in the northern andsouthern regions of the country. The AU force, known as AMISOM, along with Somali soldiershave recaptured swathes of territory since launching an offensive last year, which the AU envoyhas indicated had driven al-Shabaab from “85 percent” of areas it had controlled. According tothe AU envoy, al-Shabaab militants are now located in the Jubba valley in the south and in thenorthern Puntland region, adding that the militant group had its largest concentration of forcesin the fertile stretch of land that straddles the Jubba rive in the south. While he did not provideadditional details pertaining to the offensives, he did indicate, “discussions are ongoing andplans are very much advanced.” Al-Shabaab however has maintained that the ongoingoffensives have not diminished their capabilities of striking across the southern region of thecountry. While the semi-autonomous northern region of Puntland has been relatively calm,over the past week Puntland troops have battled al-Shabaab forces in the Galgala hills region.According to Puntland authorities, troops killed twenty rebels and lost five soldiers, withofficials reporting that they now control the battleground. In a contradicting statement, an al-Shabaab official disclosed that the militant group had killed 23 troops and that fighting was stillongoing. Al-Shabaab, which controlled Mogadishu and southern Somalia until it was driven outof the capital in 2011, has since then steadily lost territory however militants have continued tolaunch guerrilla-style attacks. On Wednesday, the militant group was blamed for a car bombthat severely wounded a university lecturer.A car bomb in Mogadishu has critically injured a university lecturer. While there was noimmediate claim of responsibility, officials have blamed al-Shabaab. According to police captainIsa Ahmed, “it was a planted bomb probably controlled remotely,” adding that it remainedunclear whether the bomb had targeted the lecturer. A source at the Madina hospital indicatedthat the man, a lecturer at Mogadishu’s SIMAD University, was in critical condition. The rebelgroup, who has promised to keep up attacks even as they continue to loose territory to theongoing military offensive, has in the past used such devices to carry out deadly attacks. OnSunday, an al-Shabaab car bomb killed four people in the capital city.101

Global Security ReportOfficials and eyewitnesses have reported that al-Shabaab militants have executed four peopleaccused of spying for the United States, Ethiopia and the country’s internationally backedgovernment. Sources have reported that the executions by firing squad occurred at a square inthe town of Bardhere, which is an al-Shabaab stronghold in the southwestern region of Gedo.The executions occurred late Tuesday and come a week after the US indicated that it had killedthe militant group’s intelligence chief in an air strike. Prior to the executions being carried out,an al-Shabaab judge in the town disclosed that “one of the spies worked with the CIA andfacilitated the killing of an al-Shabaab commander,” adding that another one of those executedhad been aiding US operations in Barawe, a port town and former al-Shabaab stronghold thatwas captured last year by Somali and AU forces, while the other two had worked for Ethiopianintelligence services and for Somalia’s security agency. According to the judge, “after hearingthe charges against the four and their confession, the Islamic court sentenced them to the deathpenalty.” According to an eyewitness, hundreds of locals watched the execution.6 January The president of Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland Government Abdiweli Mohamed Ali hasconfirmed that Puntland Defense Forces (PDF) killed twenty al-Shabaab militants during a twoday raid on their bases in the Galgala region. Speaking at a press conference in the state capitalof Garowe on Tuesday, the president disclosed that Puntland army troops had seized control ofGuri-xoor, Dhagxdher, Guri Dharkeyn, Gurihis, Karin Xagared and the largest hideout of Digjigle,which is located some 37 kilometres from the village of Galgala. The president further indicated,“Puntland forces killed 20 and wounded 29 others. Five Puntland soldiers were martyred in themilitary offensive and four sustained injuries,” adding that the troops also destroyed a cache ofweapons and seized surveillance equipment. He also disclosed “Puntland soldiers capturedsenior al-Shabaab officials including Mukhtar Abdinur Ahmed (Ahmed Gurey) and Ahmed AbdiMohamed…” The Puntland leader noted that the two captured men were militia commanderswho played a pivotal role in the latest clashes.4 January A suicide car bomb blast shook Somalia’s capital city on Sunday near the heavily fortifiedinternational airport, with officials reporting that at least four people were killed in the attack.According to a local police official, the bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into anothercar, setting off a large blast that was heard across the coastal city. Interior ministry spokesmanMohamed Yusuf later reported that officials “…had information about this car laden withexplosives and we have been following it…but it detonated and four civilians were killed, andthe bomber.” Witnesses reported seeing clouds of smoke after the explosion, with someindicating that security forces opened fire in order to disperse approaching onlookers. Thisprompted fears that another coordinated attacks was under way. A military spokesman for al-Shabaab, Sheikh Abdul Aziz Abu Musab, later confirmed that the militants had carried out theattack. The airport area is a major base for members of Somalia’s armed forces. It also housesseveral foreign embassies and the African Union (AU), which is currently battling the militantgroup. The area has been frequently targeted by al-Shabaab, most recently in late Decemberwhen the militant group launched a major assault against an AU command center.2 January Al Shabaab militants attacked a military base in the outskirts of Baidoa, killing at least sevensoldiers. The attack came two days after the United States killed the chief of al Shabaab'sintelligence and security wing, Tahliil Abdishakur, in a drone strike. Somali military officerCaptain Ahmed Idow said Somali soldiers killed three al Shabaab insurgents during the attack.A spokesman for al Shabaab said the group had briefly seized the base and killed more than 10soldiers. Al Shabaab often cites a higher death toll than the number given by officials. In aseparate incident in central Somalia, al Shabaab ambushed a government convoy carrying foodaid, killing one soldier, according to Somali officials.At least one person was killed and 14 others, including seven Kenyan teachers, were injured ina roadside blast in Galkcayo, a city in central Somalia. Mohamed Abdulqadir Ali, principal ofYamays Secondary School, reported, “Our bus was heading to the market when suddenly weheard a huge explosion, which injured the teachers and killed the security guard. The bus wasalso extensively damaged.” The seven teachers have been teaching in Yamays Secondary school102

Global Security Reportlocated in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland. All of the 14 injured people have beenadmitted to the hospital, and two of them are in a serious condition. No group has claimedresponsibility for the incident, however al Shabaab has been suspected to be responsible forattacks on foreigners in Somalia, including teachers. There were no students in the bus. It is notclear if the Kenyan teachers were being targeted in the attack. Two journalists were injured twodays earlier in the same region in a grenade attack in a local radio station, and the explosioncame a few hours after Al Shabaab attacked a government base in Baidoa, a city in southernSomalia, which killed five government soldiers and injured several others. In a separate attack,one person was killed by a car bomb in Mogadishu's Hodan district.1 January Gunmen attacked a truck carrying Kenyan soldiers near the border with Somalia, seriouslywounding three in an assault that bore the hallmarks of al Shabaab. "The soldiers were going tofetch water from a borehole in Mangai village, Lamu East, when militia attacked them byshooting at their lorry," Lamu County police commander Ephantus Kiura said. "Three soldierswere critically injured in the incident and were airlifted to a nearby naval base where they arereceiving treatment." The attack took place some 80 km from Lamu Island. Lamu County hasbeen under heightened security, including a dusk-to-dawn curfew that local businesses say hasflattened the county's tourism industry.South SudanTwo people were killed and a number of others injured on Thursday when authorities dispersedan anti-government protest in the Galhareeri district of Somalia's central Galguduud region.Demonstrators threw stones at local police stations, prompting police to intervene to protectgovernment institutions. Ali Pashi, the region's vice-president, said police fired live rounds intothe air to disperse demonstrators, noting that two people had been killed – including a woman– and a number of others injured. Somali authorities have not issued a comment. Demonstratorsmarching through the streets of Galhareeri chanted anti-government slogans and voiced theirsupport for a religious movement that was recently expelled from the district followingconfrontations with government troops. Since December of last year, the Somali army had beeninvolved in a number of violent confrontations with supporters of an Islamist movement, knownas Ahl al-Sunna wal Jamaa. The movement, which is affiliated with Somalia's Sufi orders, hadtaken control of several parts of central Somalia and was ultimately expelled from the district.Ahl al-Sunna wal Jamaa have been fighting alongside government troops to combat al Shabaab,although they have also accused the government of marginalizing them21 January South Sudan's warring factions signed a deal in Tanzania on Wednesday meant to serve as aroadmap toward ending a conflict that has killed thousands of people in the world's neweststate, Tanzanian officials said. Fighting erupted in December 2013 in South Sudan, which haddeclared independence from Sudan in 2011, after months of rising tension between PresidentSalva Kiir and his sacked deputy Riek Machar. A ceasefire signed in January has been brokenfrequently and the peace talks often stalled. The agreement, aimed according to its text at"reunifying and reconciling" the three factions of the ruling Sudan People’s LiberationMovement (SPLM), was signed in the northern Tanzanian town of Arusha. Regional leadersmediated it. "Congratulations to the SPLM leadership for reaching an agreement to reunify theirparty for the good of South Sudan," Tanzanian Foreign Minister Bernard Membe said viaTwitter. No details of the accord were immediately known. Fighting had increasingly followedethnic lines, with troops loyal to Kiir, an ethnic Dinka, battling supporters of Machar, of the Nuertribe. Machar was fired as deputy president in July, sharpening their years of rivalry.16 January An advanced party of Chinese peacekeepers is in South Sudan and the rest of the 700-strongcontingent is due to arrive by early April, a U.N. official said on Friday, part of a surge in a U.N.mission to protect civilians in a nation mired in conflict. Fighting in the nation has killed morethan 10,000 people, driven more than a million from their homes and left many without enoughfood. "We had an advanced party of 18 members of the incoming battalion arrive on January 9to begin preparations for delivery of contingent-owned equipment," said Brian Kelly, aspokesman for the U.N. mission in South Sudan UNMISS. He said some of the equipment had103

Global Security Reportalready landed in Entebbe, in neighbouring Uganda. "Overall deployment of the 700-stongChinese infantry battalion and its equipment will take more than two months to complete," hesaid, adding 180 troops would be in Juba by the end of February with 520 more arriving by lateMarch or early April. China is a major investor in South Sudan's oil industry.9 January The Human Rights Division of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) issued areport today saying there are reasonable grounds to believe that at least 353 civilians weremurdered and another 250 wounded in attacks in the capitals of Unity state and Jonglei statebetween 15 April and 17 April last year. The report has found that the attacks in the towns ofBentiu and Bor involved the deliberate targeting of victims on the basis of their ethnicity,nationality or perceived support for one of the parties to the conflict, a press statement from theMission said. “Although the conflict has been marked throughout by gross abuses and violationsof human rights and serious violations of international humanitarian law, these two eventsseemed to represent the nadir of the conflict.” The attack in Bentiu, capital of Unity State, tookplace after opposition forces retook control of the town from Government troops. The reportsays that at least 287 civilians – mainly Sudanese traders and their families who were targetedon the basis of their Darfuri origins – were killed at a mosque before a further 19 civilians werekilled at the Bentiu Civil Hospital. Two days later, an UNMISS civilian protection site outside theJonglei state capital of Bor was attacked by a mob of armed men demanding the expulsion of allyouths of Nuer ethnicity. After forcibly entering the protection site, the mob went on a rampageof killing, looting and abductions of internally displaced persons (IDPs), killing at least 47 peoplewhose names appear in report. Nearly nine months after the attacks took place, no perpetratorhas been held accountable by either the Government of the Republic of South Sudan or theSudan People's Liberation Movement/Army In Opposition and the report says that fewaccountability measures have been taken in response to the incidents. The Spokesperson for theUN High Commissioner for Human Rights referred to the UNMISS report during a briefing inGeneva today, adding his voice to those concerned by the response to the attacks.“Accountability is a big issue. There has been no accountability for the mass atrocities, humanrights violations and abuses that have caused the death of tens of thousands of people in SouthSudan,” said Robert Colville. “Nearly nine months after the attacks in Bentiu and Bor took place,no perpetrator has been held accountable by either the Government of South Sudan or the SudanPeople's Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition for the two large-scale killings described inthe report.”2 January South Sudan's National Election Commission (NEC) has set June 30 as the date for this year'sgeneral elections. NEC chair Abednego Akok announced the date at a news conference in Jubaon Thursday. The announcement drew protests from opposition officials, who said widespreadinsecurity will make it impossible to hold safe and fair elections in June. They also said themillions of dollars that have been earmarked for the elections should be spent on helping thepeople of South Sudan, not on organizing polls. At least 10,000 people have been killed andaround 1.8 million people have been displaced by fighting in South Sudan, which erupted inDecember 2013 when a rift between President Salva Kiir and his former deputy, Riek Machar,boiled over into violence. Hundreds of thousands of children have been forced to drop out ofschool because of the fighting, and hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese face severe foodinsecurity.Tanzania28 January A top Tanzanian opposition party leader has been charged with holding political rallies withouta permit, a move that prompted fellow lawmakers to storm our of parliament in protest.Ibrahim Lipumba, chairman of the opposition Civic United Front (CUF), has pleaded not guiltyin a court in Dar es Salaam, just one day after he and some thirty supporters were arrested.Police officials have disclosed that CUF supporters had staged a demonstration marking the 14 thanniversary since police killed 21 party members during protests in Zanzibar over the allegedrigging of the 2000 general elections. Prosecutor Joseph Maugo has indicated that Mr Lipumbahas been charged with “inciting CUF supporters and other people to hold assemblies and stagea demonstration without a government permit.” Mr Lipumba has been released on bail and has104

Global Security Reportbeen ordered to appear in court on 25 February. Tanzania is due to hold general elections inOctober.17 January Five people were injured Thursday evening after a hand grenade exploded inside a cinema hallat Amboni, on the outskirts of Tanzania’s coastal city of Tanga. According to Tanga regionalpolice commander Fraser Kashai, “the grenade exploded on Thursday at 9:00 pm local timewhen a huge crowd was watching a movie,” adding that police officials are holding one suspectfor questioning. The explosion forced residents to flee the area, with nearby pubs andentertainment centers temporarily vacated amidst fears that further explosions may occur. Theincident comes almost a week after police in Tanzania’s northern coastal region of Tanga seized475 dynamite explosives and arrested one suspect in connection.13 January Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete has stated that his country will support disarmamentefforts against Rwandan rebels in the eastern region of Democratic Republic of Congo,dismissing accusations he favored the insurgents as “preposterous.” United Nationspeacekeepers are currently preparing for a military offensive against the Democratic Forces forthe Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) after they ignored a 2 January deadline to surrender.Tanzanian troops are part of the UN force. Speaking to diplomats in Dar es Salaam late Friday,President Kikwete stated that he wanted to “set records straight” about Tanzania’s role in “theongoing voluntary surrender and disarmament exercise by the FDLR rebels,” adding “we havealways been supportive and will continue to be supportive of these efforts to ensure the easternDRC is free of armed groups that threaten the security of people of Congo and Congo’sneighbors.” Kigali has accused Tanzania, which borders both eastern DRC and Rwanda, offavoring the FDLR, resulting in relations to become tense between Dar es Salaam and Kigali.Tanzania’s President however has insisted that his country is not supporting the rebels.Tanzanian troops along with the UN force in DRC in 2013 helped to defeat the ethnic Tutsi M23rebel force, which according to the UN was backed by both Rwanda and Uganda, claims thathave been strongly denied by both governments. The UN is now pushing for the disarming ofdozens of rebel and splinter groups after two decades of conflict in the eastern DRC, much ofwhich has been fueled by the lucrative trade in minerals. African regional leaders are due todiscuss the planned offensive at a summit in Angola on January 15 – 16.Uganda30 January Police officials have disclosed that a Ugandan Muslim sheikh and seventeen others have beencharged with killing two fellow clerics in a case that is linked to Islamist rebels in DemocraticRepublic of Congo (DRC). According to police spokesman Fred Enanga, “there’s a link definitelyto the Allied Democratic Forces,” referring to the group of Ugandan-led ADF rebels who havebeen active in the eastern region of the DRC over the past two decades. The police spokesmanfurther indicated that those charged in court in the capital city Kampala on Thursday hadwanted “to eliminate their colleagues” because they had tried to discourage people from “joiningrebel ranks.” Sheikh Muhammad Yunus Kamoga, the leader of Uganda’s Muslim Tabliq group,along with seventeen others, were charged Thursday for the murders of two clerics and theattempted murder of a third earlier this month. All have denied the charges. They have beenremanded in custody until the next hearing, which is scheduled for 12 February. Sheikh AbdulQadir Muwaya, a top leader of Uganda’s Shia Muslim community, and Sheikh Mustafa Bahigawere shot dead by men on motorbikes in two separate attacks just days apart in December.Earlier this month, gunmen attempted to kill a third cleric, Sheikh Haruna Jemba.29 January Uganda has issued a three-month ultimatum to Democratic Republic of Congo to relocatehundreds of ex-rebel fighters or they will be handed to the United Nations. The deadline followsclashes between the defeated M23 rebels and the Ugandan armed forces last month, whenattempts to repatriate the insurgents resulted in around 1,000 fighters escaping their camp inwestern Uganda, over fears for their safety if they were sent back to the DRC. Ugandan armyspokesman Paddy Ankunda has indicated that some 800 ex-rebels are being held at Bihanga, amilitary camp in western Uganda, while around 120 former rebels were flown in December tothe DRC. Ugandan officials have not made clear when the deadline will come into force.105

Global Security Report14 January Ugandan army officials have disclosed that captured Lord’s Resistance Army rebel chief DominicOngwen was on Wednesday handed over to African Union (AU) troops to be sent to trial at theInternational Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity. Ugandan army spokesmanPaddy Ankunda confirmed that the Ugandan commander in the AU force had “received DominicOngwen from US troops” in Obo, a remote town located close to the border with South Sudanand Democratic Republic of Congo, adding “Dominic Ongwen will be flown directly to The Haguefor trial by CAR authorities, he is not coming to Uganda.” The handover comes a day afterUgandan officials ended speculation that they may seek to put the former rebel on trial in a courtin Kampala.13 January Uganda’s military disclosed Tuesday that captured Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army rebel chiefDominic Ongwen will be sent to the International Criminal Court (IC) where he will face chargesof war crimes and crimes against humanity. Putting an end to speculation that Kampala mayseek to put the ex-rebel on trial in its own court, Ugandan army spokesman Paddy Ankundaconfirmed “…it has been decided, Dominic Ongwen will be tried at the ICC in The Hague,” addingthat he will “…be conveyed to The Hague by CAR authorities…in consultation with the relevantbodies.” The army spokesman further disclosed that Ongwen will be transferred “hopefully verysoon,” however he declined to provide further details. Ongwen, who is currently in the custodyof US special forces after he surrendered in the CAR last week, has been sought by the ICC foralmost a decade in order to face charges that include murder, enslavement, inhumane acts anddirecting attacks against civilians. ICC spokesman Fadi El Abdallah has indicated that the courthas welcomed “all cooperation” that led to wanted suspects being brought to trail. WhileUganda is a signatory to the ICC, and is effectively legally bound to hand over wanted suspectsto the court, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni last month called for African nations to quitthe ICC, accusing the international court of being used as a “tool to target” the continent.Ongwen, who is in his mid-30s, has been accused of directing bloody campaigns in northernUganda in the early 2000s, where thousands of people were killed or abducted to be used aschild soldiers or sex slaves. Other abductees were deployed to carry out attacks on civilians inthe Democratic Republic of Congo. The US State Department has accused him of “murder,enslavement and cruel treatment of civilians,” and offered a US $5 million bounty forinformation that would lead to his capture.12 January A senior LRA commander who surrendered last week appealed on Ugandan television onMonday for the rebel group’s remaining fighters to give themselves up, adding that PresidentYoweri Museveni had forgiven him. In an audio recording originally broadcast on local radio inthe CAR, Dominic Ongwen appealed directly to LRA fighters, some of them by name, to lay downtheir arms. In the nearly eight-minute address, which excerpts of it were aired on Ugandanindependent television channel NTV, Ongwen stated “the head of state has promised to forgiveme, and he said the world will hear about the wonders he will do for me,” adding “I am now afree man despite the ICC case against me. If I can come back, then what about you who have nocase?” According to Ugandan authorities, Ongwen, who is wanted by the International CriminalCourt (ICC) for crimes against humanity, is currently being held in the CAR by US forces helpingto fight the LRA. Officials in Kampala have indicated that they want to bring him back to Ugandawhere the notorious rebel group is accused of killing thousands and kidnapping children to useas fighters and sex slaves.8 January A community leader has reported that four Muslim clerics in the Ugandan city, Kampala, havegone missing after being picked up by unidentified men. According to the head of Uganda’sMuslim Tabliq sect, Sheikh Muhammad Younus Kamoga, the four clerics and one of their wiveswere all picked up between 17:00 and 18:00 local time (14:00 and 15:00 GMT) on Wednesday.He further indicated that family and friends have been unable to contact them since and thereason for their kidnapping remains unclear. A police spokesperson has disclosed that thepolice have yet to investigate as they had not been officially reported missing. It remains unclearwhether these disappearances are linked to the shooting of two Muslim clerics in December. On25 December, unidentified gunmen on motorbikes killed the head of Uganda’s Shia communityin the eastern region of the country. The other Muslim cleric was a Tabliq leader who was shot106

Global Security Reportin his car on 28 December in Kampala. Police have blamed those killings on the remnants of theAllied Democratic Forces (ADF), which is a Ugandan Muslim rebel group that is based inneighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.7 January Uganda’s military has confirmed that a senior commander in the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)rebel movement has been taken into custody by US forces. An army spokesman has disclosedthat soldiers had visited Dominic Ongwen, who was being held in the town of Obbo in easternCAR, in order to identify him. The Seleka rebel group in the CAR has indicated that it hadcaptured Mr Ongwen during a battle that occurred near the eastern town of Sam Ouandja earlierthis month. According to Seleka commander Mounir Ahmat, “he wanted to escape but he cameinto the hands of our second team who arrested him.” Earlier, US State Departmentspokeswoman Jen Psaki indicated that a man who identified himself as an LRA defector hadsurrendered to US forces, adding, “if the individual proves to be Ongwen, his defection wouldrepresent a historic blow to the LRA’s command structure.” Mr Ongwen is considered by someto be a deputy commander to LRA chief Joseph Kony. While the International Criminal Court(ICC) wants to put Mr Ongwen on trial for war crimes and crimes against humanity, the Ugandangovernment however has indicated that it would prefer to try him at home. Governmentspokesman Ofwono Opondo has indicated that Mr Ongwen should be in Uganda by the end ofthe week, when he will be charged. Sources have reported that while Uganda would prefer MrOngwen to face justice at home, the government spokesman has indicated that governmentofficials will liaise with the ICC, the African Union and UN on where the case would be heard.The ICC has called for Mr Ongwen to be held to account for the alleged crimes of murder,mutilation, forced recruitment of child soldiers and use of sex slaves. He is said to havecommanded the Sinai Brigade, which has been blamed for some of the worst atrocities the groupcarried out in northern Uganda, where the LRA began its rebellion more than two decades ago.The LRA has abducted thousands of children in northern Uganda, and neighboring countries,forcing boys to become fighters and girls to become sex slaves. In 2011, the US first deployedabout 100 Special Forces in order to support thousands of African troops searching for LRAcommanders. Of the top five LRA commanders for whom the ICC had issued arrest warrants,only two – Joseph Kony and Okot Odhiambo, remain at large. Update (9 January) – Selekarebels in the CAR have indicated that they should receive a reward for capturing a Ugandanmilitia leader wanted for war crimes. According to a Seleka commander, Dominic Ongwen, asenior commander in the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), was captured after a 25-mintuebattle, after which they informed US force in the area. A US official had indicated at the time thatMr Ongwen had defected, before being handed over to their forces. The US had offered up to US$5 million (£3.3 m) as a reward for information leading to his arrest, transfer or conviction.17 January Officials indicated on Saturday that Somalia’s new prime minister has dissolved his cabinet dueto strong opposition from parliament over the large list that was unveiled less than a week ago.Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, who was appointed last month after adamaging spat between his predecessor and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been givenanother A military general, who recently returned from exile in Britain, has been placed underhouse arrest by soldiers. A Ugandan opposition group, Free Uganda, confirmed Friday the arrestof four-star Gen. David Sejusa, describing his arrest as “a cowardly act” by President YoweriMuseveni’s regime. Gen. Sejusa returned from exile in London in December 2014 and onThursday, he told journalists that he had turned down President Museveni’s invitation to meetfor reconciliation. Gen. Sejusa heads a political party opposed to what he has indicated is thepresident’s increasingly authoritarian rule. Military spokesman Lt. Col. Paddy Ankundaconfirmed Gen Sejusa’s arrest, stating that the military action is intended to protect him.Zambia26 January Zambia’s newly elected President Edgar Lungu has dropped vice President Guy Scott from hisadministration when he announced his cabinet on Monday. As interim president since the deathin office of Michael Sata in October of last year, Scott had been the first white leader on thecontinent since the end of apartheid twenty years ago. Scott has been replaced by Inonge Wina,107

Global Security Reporta former gender minister and chairwoman of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF). The newlyappointed president has made several other new appointments to the cabinet after he wonpresidential elections last week, including Ngosa Simbyakula, who is the new Justice Ministerand Davies Mwila, who is the new Home Affairs Minister. The President has retained FinanceMinster Alexander Chikwanda and Foreign Affairs Minister Harry Kalaba. The president, whotakes over the helm for the remainder of Sata’s term until general elections are held inSeptember 2016, reiterated his pledge to serve the people of Zambia equally regardless of tribalaffiliation. He has promised to focus on building the economy of the continent’s second largestcopper, producer, which has been hit by declining prices. The new president inherits a slowingeconomy and high poverty levels, with the key agricultural, tourism and mining sectors allstruggling.22 January On Thursday, authorities disclosed that Zambia’s ruling party candidate Edgar Lungu was aheadin the race to replace late president Michael Sata, as voting continued in several parts of thecountry. According to the Electoral Commission of Zambia, ballots from 90 of the 150constituencies had been counted by Thursday afternoon, with officials indicating that Lungu,who is the ruling Patriotic Front’s candidate, was leading with 590,252 votes, closely followedby opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development, whoobtained 524,976 votes. Nevers Mumba of the former ruling party Movement for MultipartyDemocracy (MMD) is in third, with 8,831 ballots. Final results are expected to be released onFriday, with officials at the commission indicating that no discrepancies had been reported sincecounting began. Update (24 January) – Zambia’s electoral commission announced Saturdaythat Defense Minister Edgar Lungu, of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF), has narrowly won thecountry’s presidential elections. According to the commission, Lungu won 48.33 percent of thevote, beating rival Hakainde Hilchilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND)who garnered 46.67 percent. Some celebrations, held in the streets of the capital city Lusakagot out of hand, with police using teargas to disperse excited PF supporters who attempted toforce their way into the conference center where the announcement was made. Lungu will besworn in on Sunday, effectively becoming the country’s sixth president since Zambia gainedindependence. He will take over the remainder of the late president’s term until generalelections, which are scheduled for September 2016, take place.21 January On Wednesday, police in Zambia fired tear gas in a bid to disperse around 100 supporters ofthe leading opposition candidate in the presidential election as they waited for results to beannounced in the closely-fought race. According to on the ground sources, a number ofHakainde Hichilema’s United Party for National Development supporters were arrested andtaken into a police van. Sources reported that the group had kept a vigil outside a conferencecenter in Lusaka, where the first batch of official results from Tuesday’s election were expectedto be released. The country’s electoral commission however suspended the announcement ofthe results after the vote was extended for an additional day due to heavy rains, whichprevented polling officials from reaching some of the country’s remote areas. While policeinitially had asked supporters to disperse, one of them shouted back at the officers, who thendrove them off with batons and teargas.Boats and ox-wagons were deployed to get ballot papers to parts of the country hit by torrentialrains as presidential elections were extended for a second day Wednesday. According toelection authorities, a planned airlift of ballot papers and polling officers to remote villages onTuesday was disrupted by “extreme thunderstorms,” which grounded flights. According to theelectoral commission, in one area, polling material will first have to be transported by boat, thenthe polling officials will have to walk for three hours before taking ox-drawn carts to pollingstations. Voters in at least two dozen, out of around 6,000 polling stations, are now expected tocast their ballots on Wednesday. The delay in the delivery of polling material resulted in afrontrunner in the vote, opposition candidate Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party forNational Development (UPND), to cry foul and allege fraud. The head of a South Africanobserver team, South African Foreign Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, however hascommended the electoral body for holding a “generally peaceful” vote despite the “challenging”conditions.108

Global Security Report20 January Presidential polls opened Tuesday in Zambia’s tightly contested elections following the deathof President Michael Sata, who died in office last year. The top two contenders are DefenseMinister Edgar Lungu, 58, who is representing the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) and oppositioncandidate Hakainde Hichilema, 52, of the United Party for National Development (UPND). Atstake is the remaining year and a half of Sata’s five-year term in office. New taxes on metal havebecome a surprising election issue. Lungu’s party introduced the tax in January, while Hichilemahas promised to scrap it. Despite the early morning cold weather, Zambians, who voted inscheduled elections that brought Sata to power three years ago, are due to cast ballots againnext year.18 January Zambian authorities have deployed 8,500 troops to police 6,456 polling stations nationwideahead of the 20 January presidential elections. Speaking at a press conference in the capitalLusaka, Inspector General of Police Stella Libingani told reporters “I wish to assure people whowill be voting in Tuesday’s election that enough security measures have been put in place toensure their safety,” adding “my office, in consultation with the minister of home affairs, hasdeployed over 8,500 police officers from all trades….This means that electorates can turn out innumbers to choose their preferred candidate for president without fear of being caught up inpolitical violence.” Libongani disclosed that the deployed troops will not only protect voters,but also personnel from the Electoral Commission of Zambia as well as equipment andmaterials. There are 5,166,088 registered voters in Zambia, which according to a 2010 nationalconsensus has a population of over 13 million. Voters will chose from amongst elevencontenders. On Friday, Zambia’s political parties pledged not only to renounce and condemn allelection-related violence, but also to disavow any groups or individuals who are foundinstigating electoral unrest.14 January Zambia’s ruling party candidate in next week’s presidential elections has held out an olivebranch to his opponents, promising to create a unity government if he wins the polls. Defenseand Justice Minister Edgar Lungu has emerged as the Patriotic Front (PF) candidate after a fiercesuccession battle that exposed deep divisions within the ruling party. Speaking on Wednesdayin Lusaka, Lungu, who will likely face a tough battle against Hakainde Hichilema of the UnitedParty for National Development, disclosed that he wants to bring all sides into government,stating that he wants “…to form a government which will be very inclusive,” adding that this willinclude former PF members, opposition politicians and even those within the PF party who“viciously” opposed his candidacy. Since president Michael Sata’s death, from an undisclosedillness late last year, the ruling party has been affected by infighting which has centered on thefact that opposing camps had nominated rival candidates for the vote. Lungu and Vice PresidentGuy Scott, who took over the interim government, belong to rival factions and it was only amonth before the January 20 elections that the feuding sides had agreed to field Lungu as thesole candidate.13 January A key railway line, which links Zambia to ports in Tanzania, has been closed after workers wenton strike, demanding five months of unpaid salaries. According to officials from the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA), which is owned by the governments of the two countriesand which has been struggling for more than a decade, as of Monday, all train operations havebeen suspended indefinitely. A statement released by TAZARA indicated that due to“longstanding operational challenges,” losses “have now reached a crisis level,” adding that as aresult, it “has been unable to meet most operational costs, the bulk of which include expensesfor running spares for locomotives and rolling stock, fuel and salaries for employees.” TAZARAis a key route for Zambia as it connects the country to the sea and handles most of the country’scopper and cobalt exports. Zambia is the 7 th biggest producer worldwide and the 2 nd biggestwhen it comes to refined copper. Update (16 January) – A company spokesman has disclosedthat the railway between Zambia and Tanzania reopened Friday after workers ended a strike.According to company spokesman Conrad Simuchile, “the suspension of operations, which wasannounced Monday 12 January 2015, has now been lifted and all train operations have resumedwith immediate effect.”Zimbabwe109

Global Security Report13 January On Tuesday, Zimbabwe ruling party officials, who were ousted in a purge against allies ofPresident Robert Mugabe’s former deputy Joice Mujuru, vowed to launch a legal fight in a bid toregain control of the party. The ousted party members called the party’s December congress,which elected new leaders, “illegal, stating “there is neither constitutional nor moral authorityfor it to form structures that can lead both the party and the government.” Former partysecretary for administration Didymus Mutasa has indicated that they will use “legal channels toreclaim the leaderships of the party from the jaws of political vultures” for all “the loyalmembers of ZANU-PF who are determined to restore the image of our party.” Several partyofficials, including Mutasa, party spokesman Rugare Gumbo, party commissar WebsterShamuand war veterans leader Jabulani Sibanda, were dismissed last year after being accusedof siding with former vice president Mujuru. The president also dismissed nine cabinetmembers and six deputy ministers aligned to Mujuru. While Mujuru was once seen as a favoriteto take over the presidency, the former vice president came under attack in 2014, notably fromPresident Mugabe’s increasingly powerful wife Grace. The former vice president has beenaccused of plotting to assassinate the president, of fomenting factional divisions within theruling party and of illegal business dealings. In December, she was replaced by Justice MinisterEmmerson Mnangagwa, a long-time ally of the president.8 January Zimbabwe’s opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has called on “democratic forces” to forge analliance in order to press President Robert Mugabe to fix the economic crisis that is plaguing thecountry. The African nation is in the middle of an economic crisis that has been characterizedby high unemployment, which is estimated by independent economists to be at around 80percent, and dwindling national revenue. Power shortages and a liquidity crunch have forcedthousands of companies to either migrate to neighboring countries, downsize or close down,while an indigenization law, that has forced foreign companies to cede majority shares to locals,has turned foreign investors away. Speaking at a news conference, Tsvangirai, former ministerand leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party, stated “unemployment hascontinued to spiral in the past 18 months and is now a threat to national stability.” FinanceMinister Patrick Chinamasa recently announced that 4,610 companies had closed over the pastthree years, resulting in over 55,000 job loses. The government has been struggling to pay itsworkers on time amidst shrinking revenue collections. The former prime minister has called onpolitical parties, civil groups and ordinary Zimbabweans to untie and seek solutions to thepolitical and economic crises, stating, “now is the time for the broader democratic movement tounite and rally together in finding a solution to the crisis we face as a nation.” Tsvangirai hasfailed to oust President Mugabe in the past three elections. The veteran leader, who turns 91next month, has ruled the southern African country for nearly 35 years since it gainedindependence from Britain in 1980.South AfricaLesothoNamibiaSouth AfricaNo major incidents to report.No major incidents to report.26 January Police reported Monday that two men have been shot dead and shops owned by immigrantslooted in South Africa’s largest city, as unrest, following the death of a teenager last week, hasspread in Johannesburg townships. According to officials from the South African policedepartment, the two men were killed in the Langlaagte township during a robbery at animmigrant-owned shop on Sunday. Another store was set on fire and several others werelooted. Unrest broke out after a 14-year-old boy, who residents say was trying to rob a shop inSoweto, was shot dead by a foreigner last Monday. Since then, several foreign-owned shops110

Global Security Reporthave been looted across Soweto. Police officials have indicated that so far, they have arrested178 suspects. South Africa, which has a population of about 50 million, is home to an estimated5 million immigrants, some of whom have been accused by local residents and politicians oftaking jobs and services away from South Africans. In 2008, more than sixty foreigners werekilled in violence believed to have been sparked by tensions over a lack of jobs. South Africanunemployment stands at around 25 percent while youth joblessness is close to 40 percent.23 January South African police disclosed Friday that they have arrested 153 people after mobs went on alooting spree of grocery stores owned by foreign nationals in Johannesburg’s Soweto township.Speaking at a press conference Friday, Lieutenant-General Lesetja Mothiba, policecommissioner of the country’s economic hub Gauteng, disclosed that dozens of people are facingcharges of public violence, including a police officer who was caught on film participating in thelooting. Dozens of those arrested appeared in court Thursday on charges of public violence,with scores more due to appear in court on Friday and Monday. One person is being held formurder while eleven will answer to charges of unlicensed firearms possession. Authorities havedisclosed that most of the arrested are between the ages of 20 and 31. The violence began aftera foreign shopkeeper shot dead a 14-year-old boy who had allegedly attempted to rob him onMonday night. According to police spokesman Kay Makhubela, “young boys wanted to rob ashop and the owner opened fire and killed one of them…that made the community angry, andthat’s what started all this.” While a second person was killed on Wednesday night, policeofficials have disclosed that they are still investigating the circumstances. At least eighty shops,most of them owned by Somalis, have been looted over the past several days. On Friday sourcesreported, “strengthened police deployments” across Soweto, adding that relative calm wasmaintained overnight. South African President Jacob Zuma has called for order to be restoredto the area. A statement released by his office on Friday indicated “the President has instructedthe Security Cluster in Cabinet as well as the provincial and local government…to work togetherto bring the situation under control and work towards restoring normalcy.”13 January On Tuesday, South Africa’s radical opposition Economic Freedom Fighters threatened todisrupt President Jacob Zuma’s annual state of the nation address next month if he fails toanswer questions in parliament pertaining to the controversial “security upgrades” to hisprivate residence. This will be the latest stunt carried out by a young party that has targetedthe president over the past several months over his refusal to accept an ombudsman’s decisionthat he should repay some US $24 million of taxpayers’ money that was spent on additions tohis rural Nkandla home. The refurbishments included a swimming pool, amphitheater, cattlepen and chicken run. In August, the Economic Freedom Fighters’ leader Julius Malema, alongwith nineteen of his lawmakers, were suspended from parliament after they disrupted aquestion-and-answer session with the President by changing: “pay back the money.”SwazilandNo major incidents to report.111

Global Security ReportAsia PacificEastern AsiaChina, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region28 January Fifteen Communist Party officials have been sanctioned for supporting Tibetan independenceorganisations and passing intelligence to the Dalai Lama. According to a statement posted onthe Communist Party Disciplinary Commission of Tibet’s website, the involvement of theseindividuals in activities which have been deemed harmful to China’s security was discoveredlast year. No details have yet emerged regarding the actual activities of the individualsconcerned or of the punishment they will have received.19 January Two Uighurs were shot and killed by police while trying to cross the border into Vietnam. Afterdiscovering a group of Uighurs near a toll gate, police officers were forced to defend themselveswhen two of the Uighurs attacked them with knives. Two more Uighurs were arrested at thescene. A third was captured near Pingxiang city in the southern region of Guangxi. Beijing hasrevealed that over 800 people have been prevented from crossing illegally from China intoVietnam over the past year, with the majority of them making for jihadi training camps. Policehave said that many of the individuals concerned had been motivated by the East TurkestanIslamic Movement, which has been spreading extreme religious views throughout the regionand encouraging people to engage in jihad.18 January Top secret documents leaked by former U.S intelligence official Edward Snowden haveimplicated China in the theft of “many terabytes of data” relating to Australia’s new joint strikefighter, the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II. Aviation experts have speculated that China’sfifth generation fighters, like the Chengdu J-20 and the Shenyang J-31 have incorporated designelements and technological innovations that were stolen from the United States. China hasdenied these allegations; according to a foreign ministry spokesperson: “the so-called evidencethat has been used to launch groundless accusations against China is completely unjustified.”16 January Since September last year, a China-wide anti-drug campaign has resulted in 60,500 arrests andthe seizure of 11.14 tonnes of narcotics. The demand for drugs in China, especially syntheticsubstances like methamphetamine and ecstasy, has risen in recent years, in part because of theincreasingly large number of people with larger, disposable incomes. In order to combat its drugproblem, China has begun to collaborate with Laos, Myanmar and Thailand to help stem the flowof drugs from Southeast Asia.Twitter accounts for the New York Post and United Press International (UPI) have been hacked,resulting in false reports that the Chinese military had fired upon the USS George Washington.At 1304 local time, UPI apparently tweeted that a “Chinese anti-ship missile was fired at the USSWashington”. Subsequent tweets alleged that the United States Navy had retaliated. After theNew York Post and UPI confirmed that their twitter accounts have been hacked, a Pentagonofficial denied the existence of a threat from China, pointing out that the USS Washington wassafely dry-docked in Japan.President Xi Jinping’s crackdown on graft and corruption has claimed another victim. A seniorintelligence official, Ma Jian, was placed under investigation. A statement issued by the CentralCommission for Discipline Inspection, alleged that Mr. Ma was under investigation for “seriousviolations of discipline”. In a career spanning 30 years, Mr. Ma is reported to have coordinatedmany of China’s counter-intelligence efforts. His arrest has been linked to that of Ling Ling,former aide to Hu Jintao. Both men have been implicated in crimes committed by the FounderGroup, a technology and financial service conglomerate.112

Global Security Report15 January After the murder of Chinese citizens by a North Korean soldier, China has established civilianmilitias to help patrol the border between the two countries. The militia will patrol the Yanbianprefecture of Jilin province, which shares a border of about 500km with North Korea.14 January Thirty seven babies and a three year old girl have been rescued by police after busting a childtrafficking ring in China’s Shandong province. Many of the children, who were to be sold for asmuch as $13,000, were found to be suffering from HIV/AIDS and malnutrition. In China, peoplefound guilty of trafficking children can be imprisoned for up to ten years or, in serious cases,face the death penalty. So far, the raid has netted authorities at least 100 people believed to beinvolved in the trafficking ring.12 January Six would-be bombers have been killed by police in China’s far west Xinjiang region, home toChina’s nine million strong Muslim minority. The situation unfolded when residents of Shulecounty alerted police to a group of men carrying suspicious packages. According to newsreports, police opened fire on the group when one attempted to attack a police officer with anaxe. His confederates subsequently tried to detonate explosive devices but were killed by policebefore they could do so. Over the past year, violence has increased in the Xinjiang region, withover 200 people killed in a series of clashes with the authorities.8 January A Hong Kong drug lord wanted in China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Mayanmar andIndonesia has been arrested by Indonesia police in a sting operation. According to the deputy ofIndonesia’s National Narcotics Agency (BNN), Wong Chi-ping’s crime syndicate had been thesubject of an ongoing BNN investigation for over three years. According to reports of his arrest,Wong was caught in possession of 840 kilograms of methamphetamine. Other suspects,including three Chinese nationals, were also arrested. If they are found guilty of drug trafficking,they may all face the death penalty under Indonesian drug laws.7 January In Hong Kong, organised criminal groups are using domestic workers to smuggle drugs andlaunder money. According to police officials, criminals will often target women in public spaces,such as Hong Kong’s Victoria Park. The relationship that develops between the criminal and histarget will, at first, appear to be perfectly friendly. It is only once a certain level of dependencyhas formed on the woman’s part that she will be asked to transport luggage containing drugs orto set up bank accounts for the purposes of laundering money. Criminal groups have also begunto use social media and other mobile applications to recruit domestic workers for this purpose.6 January A Nanjing politician is being investigated on corruption charges by the Chinese CommunistParty’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. No further details of the case have as yetemerged.2 - 31 January This month, 81 people have died and 153 people have been hospitalised from a mutated variantof the H3N2 influenza virus. Existing flu vaccines have had very little effect on virus. Newvaccines to help protect against the strain will not be ready until April this year, by which pointexperts believe the winter flu peak will have ended.2 January A senior Chinese diplomat suspect of corruption has lost his job, the most recent person to betargeted in President Xi Jinping’s campaign against graft. Zhang Kunsheng, a former assistantforeign minister, is one of the highest profile individuals to have to have been implicated incorruption charges.North Korea10 January North Korea has announced that its willingness to suspend further nuclear tests if the UnitedStates were prepared to cancel its annual military drills with South Korea. Washington hasrejected the proposal, with State Department official Jen Psaki describing it as an “implicitthreat”. Psaki stated that the US is willing to enter into dialogue with North Korea and113

Global Security Reportencouraged the Hermit Kingdom to take the necessary steps to reduce tensions on the KoreanPeninsula if it wanted to engage in meaningful negotiations. One of these, Psaki maintains, stepswould have to be denuclearisation. So far, North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests, thelast taking place in February 2013. Although it has been sanctioned by the United Nations forviolating international protocols relating to the development of nuclear weapons, Pyongyang’sefforts to become a credible nuclear power have continued.7 January Chinese officials have confirmed that the North Korean army deserter who crossed the borderand killed four people in a robbery spree has succumbed to the injuries he sustained whiletrying to evade capture. On 27 December, the twenty seven year old soldier is believed to havecrossed the Tumen river from North Korea into China’s Jilin province. He is alleged to have thenbroken into the two homes and killed all four inhabitants. After the incident took place, Beijinglodged a formal complaint with Pyongyang. According to a post on the Chinese foreignministry’s website, North Korea has offered its sympathies to the families of the people whowere killed. The 521 kilometer long Tumen River has been used many times in the past bypeople trying to escape from North Korea.6 January A South Korean Defence Ministry white paper has claimed that North Korea has increased thenumber of its “cyber army” to 6,000. According to the report, the “cyber army’s” purpose is toinduce “physical and psychological paralysis” in South Korea, by interfering with infrastructureprojects and hampering military operations. For some years, North Korea has investedsubstantial resources into a cyber-warfare unit called Bureau 121. Run by the DPRK military’sspy agency, Bureau 121 is staffed by some of North Korea’s most talented computer experts.2 January U.S President Barak Obama has ordered financial sanctions to be imposed upon North Korea inretaliation for the cyber attack against Sony Pictures. Obama has said that the sanctions wereimposed because of “the provocative, destabilizing and repressive actions and policies of theGovernment of North Korea, including its destructive cyber-related actions during Novemberand December 2014.” In the same press conference, he stated that the U.S government’sresponse was not directed at the people of North Korea but against their government and inparticular the activities of the government which harm American interests. Update (4December) North Korea has criticizes the US for imposing sanctions for actions which it denieshaving committed. An unnamed spokesperson for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry has told theKorean Central News Agency - the regime’s official media outlet - that “the policy persistentlypursued by the U.S to stifle the DPRK, groundlessly stirring up bad blood toward it, would onlyharden its will and resolution to defend the sovereignty of the country.”Japan20 January Islamic State (IS) militants have threatened to kill two Japanese hostages, Haruna Yukawa andKenji Goto, if a ransom of $200 million is not paid. Yukawa - self-styled military contractor withno experience of armed combat - was captured in Syria by IS militants at some point betweenJuly and August last year. Proof of his capture appeared in mid-August when a video of Yukawabeing interrogated appeared on Youtube. Kenji Goto appears to have been kidnapped whilesearching for Yukawa. A Syrian guide claims to have taken Goto from Kiris, Turkey to Aleppo innorthern Syria, from whence Goto alone is believed to have journeyed east to defacto IS capitalRaqqa In December, Goto’s wife received an email, purportedly from IS militants, demanding$17 million in ransom for his release. Tokyo has pledged to do its utmost to secure the hostage’srelease and a counter-terrorism team has been dispatched to Amman, Jordan, by Japan’sNational Police Agency. However, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has said that Japanwill not meet the terrorists demands. In a statement issued on January 21, he said “We will notyield to terrorism and there is no change to our position of contributing to campaigns againstterror in international society.” His statement was in response to an IS video which was releasedthe previous day in which Japan was accused of donating “$100 million to kill our women andchildren, to destroy the home of the Muslims…and in an attempt to stop the expansion of IslamicState you have also donated another $100 million to train the (apostates).” Update (24January) A video has appeared online in which Kenji Goto appears to be holding a photo of114

Global Security ReportHaruna Yukawa’s dead body. In an audio recording accompanying the video, Goto articulates ISdemands for a prisoner exchange to guarantee his release. Although the video was notdisseminated through any of the terrorist group’s official channels, Prime Minister Shinzo Abehas said that the credibility of the video is high. Update(31 January) A video posted by ISmilitants has revealed the execution of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto.13 January Defence spending in Japan is set to increase for the third year in a row. From April this year,defence spending will account for around 5% of the national budget, an increase from 4.84trillion yen last year to 4.98 trillion yen this year. Experts have speculated that this dramaticincrease in defence spending is in response to China’s predominance as a regional power.Japan’s more assertive defence policy is consistent with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s attemptsredefine the role of Japan’s military. It is expected that the conservative leader will push for theadoption of legal mechanisms that will enable Japanese troops to fight alongside allies abroadfor the first time since the end of the Second World War.South Korea23 January North Korea has responded to South Korea’s offer to resume talks on the condition thatsanctions imposed upon them after 2010 attack on a South Korean vessel be lifted. Aspokesperson for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said that “[i]f the SouthKorean government is sincerely interested in humanitarian issues, it should first remove theban that was imposed for the purpose of confrontation.” The measures referred to were adoptedafter a torpedo attack on a South Korean naval vessel which resulted in the deaths of 46 sailors.A responding statement issued by the South’s Unification Ministry described the connectiondrawn by the North between the humanitarian issue of reunification and the imposition ofsanctions as “completely irrelevant”22 January Secret documents leaked by Edward Snowden have revealed that South Korea’s cyber espionageprogram has been targeting the United States. The document reveals that the NSA is aware ofSouth Korea’s activities and that it does not regard them as a particularly serious threat.18 January In a statement released by the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a teenager identifiedonly by the surname Kim is believed to be the first case of a South Korean national joining theIslamic State (IS) terror group. Earlier this month, he went on a trip to Turkey, ostensibly to visita Turkish pen pal. After he went missing on January 12, Turkish authorities revealed that hiscomputer contained evidence of a desire to join IS. He is believed to have used the id “Sunnimujahedeen” as a twitter account name and to have used Surespot - an encrypted onlinemessaging service - to communicate with IS.Southern AsiaAfghanistan29 January Sixteen people have been killed and thirty nine have been injured in a suicide bomb attack on afuneral in Laghman province in east Afghanistan. A spokesperson for the governor hasconfirmed that amongst the dead were four police officers. A second bomber was subsequentlyarrested by police. Although officials have blamed the attack on the Taliban, no one has yet comeforward to claim responsibility. In an unrelated incident, Taliban militant attacked a nearbycheckpoint, killing eleven people.A high ranking Islamic State (IS) recruiter has been captured by members of the Taliban insouthern Helmand province. Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim, formerly affiliated with the Afghaniand the Pakistani Taliban, was captured along with forty five other suspected IS members, in amove which signals growing tension between the Taliban and the IS.Three U.S Defence Department contractors have been killed in Kabul airport by members of theTaliban. Although details of the incident are still unclear, a Taliban spokesperson said “[a] braveAfghan mujahid infiltrator working in the military side of Kabul airport opened fire on invading115

Global Security ReportAmerican soldiers, liking three Americans.” The incident is currently under investigation.28 January Two militants affiliated with Feday-e-Mahaz, the Taliban splinter group responsible for killinga Swedish journalist last year, have been arrested in Kabul. During the police raid, a bomb, twopistols and a silencer were recovered. The two men were believed to have been planning anattack in the Afghan capital. In an unrelated incident in western Herat province, a female policeofficer was killed in an explosion that also wounded a male colleague.27 January A motorcycle bomb in Kandahar city has injured eight people. According to a policespokesperson, the explosive was concealed within the motorcycle an exploded in an areafrequented by law enforcement.26 January An explosion inside a hotel in Jalalabad has injured five civilians. Police officials say that aninvestigation into the incident has been launched.Islamic State (IS) spokesperson Sheikh Abu Muhammad al-Adnani al-Shami has declared theexpansion of the so-called IS caliphate to the Khorasan region, a geopolitical entity whichincludes part of Afghanistan. In a statement issued by al-Shami, he says: “we call upon all themujahideed in Khorasan to join the caravan of the khalifah [caliph] and abandon disunity andfactionalism. So come to your state, oh mujahedeen…for you are the forerunners. You havefought the English, the Russians and the Americans, and upon you today is a new fight, a fight toenforce tawhīd [monotheism] and vanquish shirk [polytheism].24 January A bombing in Afghanistan’s eastern Nangarhar province has left at least two border policemembers dead and two others wounded. The officers were killed while riding in the back of apick-up truck in the city of Jalalabad. It is believed that a magnetic mine was attached to theundercarriage of the truck.23 January Around 20,000 people took to the streets of Herat in western Afghanistan in protest of Frenchsatirical magazine Charlie Hebdo’s depiction of the Prophet Mohammed. Protestors burnedFrench flags and called upon the French government to apologize to Muslims for the magazine’sactions.22 January In Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of Afghanistan’s Helman province, two people have diedand sixteen others have been injured in a suicide attack on a police convoy. According to aspokesperson for the provincial governor, the suicide bomber targeted the convoy while it wasconducting a routine patrol in the Lashkar Bazaar area. He said that “Police were informed aboutthe possible suicide car bomb attack. The suicide bomber pretended to have an emergencypatient. Unfortunately there were five children amongst those injured in the attack.”21 January At least twenty three militants and four soldiers have been killed in a series of clashes that tookplace over the past three days. According to officials, the conflict began in Afghanistan’snorthern Kunduz province when Taliban militants attacked a security installation in theTashguzar area of Imam Sahib district. A conflicting account of the attack was given by Talibanspokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, who claimed that militants had overwhelmed fourcheckpoints and killed thirteen security personnel.20 January At least eight people have died in a roadside blast in southern Afghanistan’s Ghazni Province.Among those killed was a family of four. Numerous people were injured in the attack and theyremain in a critical condition.18 January Four members of Afghanistan’s security forces were killed and more than an dozen others werewounded when their convoy was attacked while travelling through southern Helmand province.The attack came hours after two civilians were wounded in a bomb blast in neighbouringKandahar. No one has yet come forward to claim the attack. In an unrelated incident, twocivilians were killed in a bomb blast in Khost city, the capital of Afghanistan’s eastern Khostprovince. Again, no one has claimed responsibility for the incident.116

Global Security ReportU.S drone strikes in Afghanistan have killed an unknown number of people in the easternprovince of Nuristan. According to Afghan officials, at least three people have also died in U.Sdrone attacks in the eastern province of Nangahar.17 January At least thirty militants have been killed in a wave of Afghan army attacks. In Kunar province’sDangam district, twenty one militants were killed when a combined task force of army andborder police attacked several hideouts, while in Kunduz province, nine militants were killedwhen police and allied tribes people carried out a raid in Khan Abad district.16 January Two policemen have been killed by a roadside bomb in the northern Faryab province while ineastern Nangahar province, a drone strike killed three members of the Taliban.15 January Five men believed to have been indirectly involved in the Peshawar school attack have beenarrested in Afghanistan. The arrest came after Afghan police received a tip-off from Pakistaniauthorities. The men will be questioned by Afghani security officials before they are handedover to the Pakistani police.Five Taliban militants, including Mavlawi Shafaq, shadow Taliban deputy governor for Kapisaprovince, have been killed in violent confrontations with security forces in Tagab district.Shafaq’s title, although not officially recognized, refers to the Taliban practice of assigning itsmembers to be governors for certain districts.13 January In Kabul, a roadside bomb has claimed the lives of two person and has injured two others. TheTaliban have claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that the explosion was targeted at acar belonging to Afghan security forces. Although those involved in the explosion were allcivilians, witnesses say that a car belonging to the Afghan intelligence service passed down theroad shortly before the bomb went off. In an unrelated incident, three civilians have died aftertheir car hit a roadside bomb in Afghanistan’s eastern province of Paktia. No one has claimedresponsibility for the attack and an investigation is underway.12 January Afghan officials have confirmed that representatives of the Islamic State terror group have beenoperating in Afghanistan, recruiting potential fighters and, according to some reports, fightingwith local militants. Sources in the Afghan government have identified Mullah Abdul Rauf, aformer corps commander during the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan, as the man behind therecruitment drive. He is believed to have been in contact with jihadi commanders, tribal leadersand religious council members. The Taliban has instructed people not to attempt to contactRauf.11 January In Herat province, a roadside bomb has injured two people, including the chief of the Shindanddistrict intelligence agency. An investigation into the incident is underway.10 January Armed gunmen, believed to be Taliban militants, have shot and killed a district police chief innorthern Sar-e Pol province and a judge in eastern Nangarhar province. Witnesses claim thatHakim Beg, the police chief, was ambushed by Taliban militants while travelling to Sar-e Pol city.Two bystanders were injured in the attack. Judge Abdul Matin was killed on his way to work byunidentified men riding a motorcycle.A U.S. drone strike has killed eight people and wounded three others in the eastern province ofNangarhar. A police spokesperson has identified the victims as Taliban militants. As yet, theTaliban have passed no comment on the incident.9 January In southern Afghanistan, hundreds have gathered to praise the attack on French magazineCharlie Hebdo. Describing the Kouachi brothers “heroes”, the demonstrators also protestedagainst President Ashraf Ghani’s condemnation of the attack. Police officials claim that they hadbeen given advance warning that the demonstration would take place. It was a peaceful protestwhich authorities claim took place in accordance with Afghanistan’s freedom of speech laws.117

Global Security Report7 January At least nine people, including two children, have died in a number of separate incidents thattook place across Afghanistan. In Kandahar, two children have died and ten more have beeninjured in two separate explosions that occurred in Zhari and Shahwali Kot. It is believed thatthey set off mines or came into contact with unexploded ordinance. In eastern Nangaharprovince, Judge Mohammad-ul Hassan was killed and two of his daughters were wounded in abomb blast that rocked the provincial capital of Jalalabad. In northern Baghlan province, sixpeople working on a transport infrastructure project were killed by insurgents and in easternKhost province, three police officers sustained injuries when suicide bombers attacked a localpolice academy. One of the suicide bombers blew himself up in a car while the other two werekilled by police. The Nangahar and Khost province attacks have both been claimed by theTaliban.Three people have died in a US drone strike in Afghanistan’s eastern Logar province.6 January Police manning a checkpoint in Afghanistan’s Khost province have killed two would-be suicidebombers. Provincial police chief Faizullah Ghairat has confirmed that the two attackers, armedwith suicide vests and small arms, attacked a checkpoint on the outskirts of Khost city, but werethwarted by police who opened fire, killing them instantly.4 January Nine police officers have been killed over a two day period by insurgents in the eastern provinceof Logar. On January 3, 2015, the bodies of four police officers who had been kidnapped inWardak province were found hours later in the provincial capital Pul-i-Alam. On January 4,2015, insurgents attacked and killed five more police officers in Baraki Barak district, an areawhere government forces are regularly targeted by the Taliban.2 January Eighteen Taliban insurgents have been killed in NATO-led airstrikes in Afghanistan’ssoutheastern Paktika Province, a known stronghold for the Haqqani network. According to aspokesperson for the provincial governor, the airstrikes targeted an insurgent convoy travellingthrough Keyan district, a region which shares a border with Pakistan. Attempts to determinethe identify of the deceased insurgents has so far been unsuccessful. It is also not knownwhether or not they had crossed over into Afghanistan from Pakistan. The airstrike was the firstto be carried out by NATO forces since the ISAF combat mission officially ended on December31, 2014.Two unidentified men threw a hand grenade at the main gate of the Pakistani Consulate in Heratbefore escaping on a motorcycle. Although no one was injured in the attack, Pakistan has soughtassurances from Afghanistan that the incident will be investigated. The attack has not yet beenclaimed by a terrorist group.In Helmand province, a rocket fired from a military checkpoint has claimed the life of at leastone civilian. Police officials have confirmed that the rocket hit a house in the town of Geresh,killing one person and wounding two others. The incident reflects an alarming growth in thenumber of civilian who have died as a result of the war in Afghanistan. According to dataprovided by the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, at least 3,188 civilians werekilled in 2014 and 6,429 were injured, an overall increase of 19% from the previous year.1 January A rocket fired by Afghan soldiers at Taliban insurgents has killed at least twenty six people whowere attending a nearby wedding. A police spokesman has said that approximately forty fivepeople were also injured when the rocket struck a house in the Sangin District of Helmandprovince, where Afghan security forces and the Taliban have been fighting since the US troopwithdrawal six months earlier. Throughout Afghanistan, fighting continued: in easternNangahar province, gunmen killed a police officer and two civilians. Police officials have saidthat the gunmen were armed with explosives and are believed to have been planning to attackgovernment buildings. In central Uruzgan province a police officer killed three of his colleaguesand wounded five more. It is not yet known why he perpetrated the offence.118

Global Security ReportBangladesh29 January A member of Jamaatu Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) has been arrested by Bangladeshi securityofficials in connection with two bomb blasts in Assam and West Bangal.21 January Since Opposition Leader Khaleda Zia called for protests on the anniversary of last year’selection, more than 7,000 opposition activists have been arrested and a total of twenty ninepeople have died. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has denounced the tactics used by oppositionactivists, describing them as more akin to terrorism than politics.19 January Four members of the Islamic State (IS) terror group, including a regional coordinator, have beenarrested in Dhaka. They were arrested carrying material relating to the training and recruitingof insurgents. It is unknown whether the militants were being coordinated from the Middle Eastor were acting on their own initiative.18 January Authorities in Bangladesh have shut down access to smartphone messaging services Viber andTango, which have been used by anti-government protestors to communicate and coordinatetheir activities for the past three weeks. A spokesperson for the BangladeshTelecommunications and Regulatory Commission did not give reasons for the measures takenbut did say that denial of access to these services was a temporary measure.Despite law enforcement agencies claims that tougher action would be taken against arsonists,violence appears to spreading throughout Bangladesh. Six policemen were injured when theirbus was attacked by members of opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party. According towitnesses, a petrol bomb was thrown at truck’s driver, who was taking about forty policeofficers back to the Razarbagh barracks in Dhaka. After the driver lost control of the vehicle, thetruck overturned and caught fire. Also in Dhaka, a rickshaw puller and his passenger wereseriously injured when protestors attacked them with a firebomb. Two more buses wereattacked in the same night, leaving one dead and nine injured and bringing the total death tollto twenty seven.16 January Bangladeshi security forces have shot and killed an anti-government protestor in northwesternChapai Nawabganj district. Members of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) said that afterarresting the individual, they were attacked by his comrades, leading to a lethal firefightbetween the protestors and the police.14 January Four people died and ten were seriously injured when opposition protestors fire-bombed a busin Bangladesh. Police have arrested eight activists affiliated with Islami Chatra Shibir, thestudent arm of Jaamat-e-Islami, over the attack.13 January More than 8,000 security guards have been deployed along Bangladesh’s rail network in anattempt to prevent anti-government protestors from derailing trains. So far, six trains have beenderailed as part of a protest campaign spearheaded by Khaleda Zia and the BangladeshNationalist Party. Although no one has been killed as a result of the derailments, more than adozen people have been injured.12 January Bangladesh’s government has put in place a night time curfew in the Rangamati district, inresponse to the outbreak of violence between tribespeople and Bengali settlers. At least tenpeople have been injured so far.11 January In Chittagong, a female lecturer has been killed by unknown assailants believed to be associatedwith the Islamic Chattra Shibir, the student division of Jamat E Islami Bangladesh. She is believedto have been targeted for enforcing the institute’s dress code which prevents students fromwearing either a burka or a hijab.10 January An alleged member of outlawed terror group Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh has been119

Global Security Reportarrested by National Investigation Agency officials in Jharkhand, a state in eastern India.Authorities claim that Rezaul Karim had been hiding in Jharkland since an explosion in Burdwanon 2 October 2014 killed two Indian terrorists and injured a third.4 - 8 January Tensions have risen in Bangladesh in the lead up to the first anniversary of last year’s generalelection that was boycotted by a major opposition party. Although police banned protests anddemonstrations from 4 January onwards, so far at least seven people have been killed andthirteen people have been injured as a result of increased tension between supporters of PrimeMinister Sheikh Hasina and opposition leader Begum Khaleda Zia. On 4 January, ten protestorswere injured in Dhaka when police opened fire on them with tear gas and rubber bullets. On 5January, four people were killed during protests to commemorate what the BangladeshNationalist Party (BNP) had referred to as “Democracy Killing Day”. On 6 January, two antigovernmentprotestors were killed in Natore district, in northwest Bangladesh after being shotat by two men riding a motorcycle. In a separate incident, police claim that an auto-rickshawpassenger was killed by protestors in Sirajgani. Since 1 January, the security situation inBangladesh has rapidly worsened. At least two dozen people have been injured in violentconfrontations between pro and anti-government protestors and police that have taken placearound the country. Opposition leaders also claim that four hundred of their supporters havealso been arrested. UPDATE (8 January) Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury, the BNP vice presidentwas arrested at his home late on Thursday night.3 January India’s Border Security Force (BSF) and Bangladesh’s Border Guard (BGB) have agreed toincreased levels of cooperation in their management of border security. Issues relating to transbordercrimes including smuggling, drug trafficking and undocumented migration are amongstthose that the two countries discussed in the four day long conference in Dhaka.1 January Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami party has led a nationwide strike after the Bangladesh war crimestribunal sentenced Jamaat’s Assistant Secretary General ATM Azharul Islam to death for thecrimes he took part in during the country’s 1971 Liberation War. So far, there have been noreports of violence or damage to property as a result of the strike.India31 January India’s Agni-5 ballistic missile has successfully completed its third test flight from theIntergrated Test Range on Wheeler Island off the coast of Odisha State. It is a three stage, solidpropellant ballistic missile that is capable of carrying a nuclear missile over 5,000 kilometres.Advanced navigation and guidance systems give the Agni-5 much greater accuracy thanprevious missile systems. With its combination of range and accuracy, the Agni-5 is the firstIndian missile capable of hitting any target in Pakistan or China.27 January Police raids on workshops in Hyderabad have result in the rescue of hundreds of child slaves,some as young as six. The children, who were forced to work up to 16 hours a day, are reportedto have been malnourished and suffering from a range of different illnesses. Many of thoserecovered had come from the poor northern state of Bihar, where they been sold into slaveryby their parents for as little as $100. So far, over thirty one slave traffickers have been arrested.23 January Two people died and at least ten more were wounded when a bomb exploded outside acourtroom in eastern India. The explosion took place in Arrah, a town in the eastern state ofBihar, which has for some time been racked by violence resulting from a Maoist insurgency. Twocriminals who were due to appear in court on the day of the explosion escaped in the confusionand at present the incident is being regarded as part of an escape attempt rather than aconcerted terrorist attack.In Srinigar, clashes have broken out between police and around 3,000 people protesting Frenchsatirical magazine Charlie Hebdo’s depiction of the Prophet Mohammed. Police fired smokecanisters into the crowd in an attempt to persuade them to disperse.120

Global Security Report7 January Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has issued a travel warning to Australian’stravelling to India that militants may be planning an attack in Mumbai. Travellers are advisedto a high degree of caution.6 January A multi-agency task force lead by India’s Central Bureau of Investigation has discovered thatbetween 6,000-8,000 Nepali girls have been smuggled through Delhi to Dubai. The purpose forwhich they have been trafficked is believed to be prostitution.4 January Airports throughout India have been placed on high alert, as information from Indianintelligence agencies reveals that terrorists may target an Air India flight. The increase insecurity came after a call was placed to an Air India booking office in Kolkata and announcedthat “Air India aircraft will be hijacked.” The voice of the caller was male and he is reported tohave spoken in Bengali. The Kolkata Police’s Special Task Force has been tasked with trackingdown the caller.1 January Numerous websites hosting content linked to the Islamic State terror group have been blockedin accordance with a ban issued Indian Computer Emergency Response Team. The ban requiresinternet service providers to block the public’s access to sites which feature material of this sort.An IT official for India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has said that the sites “were carrying antiIndia content from ISIS.”Pakistan30 January At least fifty six people died and dozens more were wounded when a bomb blast tore through aShiite mosque in southern Pakistan as worshippers gathered in prayer. Militant Sunni groupJundullah have claimed responsibility for the attack which took place in the city of Shikarpur inSindh province. It is the deadliest act of anti-Shiite violence to have occur in Pakistan in twoyears.29 January A U.S drone attack in North Waziristan has killed seven people and injured three others.Pakistani security officials were able to confirm that the drone strike targeted a house in theShawal district but were unable to provide the identities of the victims. However, they did claimthat the house had been used by known militants for several months before the attack.Two Afghan terrorists have been arrested by Pakistani security forces in the capital of therestive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Counter Terrorism Department officers conducted araid in the provincial capital Mardan, arresting two men and recovering 10 kilos of explosives,four detonators and five IEDs in the process. The men claim to have been planning a terroristattack that would have taken place on the following day.27 January Seventy six suspected militants have died in Pakistani airstrikes near the Afghan border. Sixmilitant hideouts were targeted in the airstrikes, which took place in the Datta Khel area ofNorth Waziristan. According to a Pakistani army spokesperson, seven vehicles and anammunition dump were also destroyed in the attack.23 January Thousands of people have marched through the streets of Karachi and Islamabad in protestagainst the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo’s depiction of the Prophet Mohammed.Many of the individuals involved in the protest carried placards demanding that theblasphemers be killed. One protest leader demanded that all diplomatic ties between Franceand Pakistan be severed immediately. In the south western city of Quetta, around 400 peopleassociated with Markazi Jamiet-e-Ahl-e-Hadith also gathered in protest. Update (27 January)Four students in a Christian boys school in Bannu were slightly injured when hundreds ofPakistani students stormed the school, protesting against Charlie Hebdo.22 January A member of the Islamic State (IS) terror group has been arrested by Pakistani security forcesin the eastern city of Lahore. Officials claim that the individual, a Pakistani-Syrian man named121

Global Security ReportYousad Al-Salafi, has confessed to establishing an IS presence in Pakistan. He is believed to havearrived in Pakistan five months ago from Turkey and has worked with a local imam to recruitmen to fight in Iraq and Syria. Al-Salafi has also met with members of the Pakistani Taliban inthe northern tribal areas, although the purpose of these meetings is unknown.As part of a nation-wide crackdown against militancy, Pakistan has outlawed two terroristgroups who have been involved in attacks at home and in India and Afghanistan. Jamaatud Dawaand the Haqqani Network have both been banned as part of an intensified counter-terrorcampaign that was launched in response to the Peshawar school attack last month. Accordingto a Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Pakistan is required to take such action againstgroups by the U.N. “As soon as the U.N. Sanctions Committee lists or proscribes and individual,an entity under the U.N Security Council resolutions we are required to freeze their assets andensure that their travel is restricted.”19 January Raids conducted by Pakistani police to improve security in the restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwaprovince have led to the arrest of over 600 people, including many illegal Afghan immigrants,and the seizure of 113 guns and over 3000 rounds of ammunition.At least five Taliban militants have been killed in a U.S drone strike in Shahi Khel, aneighbourhood in Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal region.17 January Clashes between police and anti-Charlie Hebdo protestors outside the French embassy inKarachi have led to three people being injured, including an Agence Press France photographerwho was shot in the back. The student wing of Jamaat-e-Islami was responsible for organizingthe protest, one of several that took place throughout Pakistan after the French satiricalmagazine’s depiction of the prophet Mohammed. A policeman and a local television cameramanwere also injured in the scuffle. According to police officials, violence broke out when at least350 protestors were denied access to the French consulate by police. To disperse the protestors,police fired on them with tear gas and a water cannon.16 January After U.S Secretary of State John Kerry urged Pakistan’s leadership to do more to fight militantgroups operating within its territory, the Pakistan government outlawed the Taliban linkedHaqqani network. A member of Pakistan’s cabinet said that the decision was made as a steptowards implementing the National Action Plan that was devised in the aftermath of thePeshawar School Shooting. He said: “The military and the government are on the same page onhow to tackle militancy. There is no more ‘good’ or ‘bad’ Taliban”.15 January Five suspected militants have been killed in a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan’s northwest. Theattack targeted a compound in the Tehsil Ladha area of south WaziristanTwo more convicted terrorists have been executed in Pakistan, bringing the total number up tonineteen since the moratorium on capital punishment was lifted after the Peshawar schoolattack. Mohammad Saeed Awan had been a member of Lashkar-e Jhangvi and was convicted forthe murder of a police officer in 2001. Zahid Hussain was also convicted of killing a police officerin 2002.13 January In Peshawar, dozens of people paid tribute to the brothers responsible for the attack against theFrench magazine Charlie Hebdo last week. A local cleric led a group of at least fifty people inprayer for Cherif and Said Kouachi, who were described by the worshippers as “martyrs”.Seven more prisoners have been hanged, bringing the total number of executions of seventeensince Pakistan lifted its moratorium on the death penalty. Those executed were Behram Khan,who was found guilty of killing a lawyer in 2003; Zulfikar Ali, an al Qaeda operative who wasconvicted of the murder of two policemen; Mushtaq Ahmed and Nawazish Ali, who wereconvicted of attempting to kill former president Pervez Musharraf; and Shahid Haneef,Muhammad Talha and Khaleel Ahmed, who were found guilty of killing a senior member of thedefence ministry in 2001.122

Global Security Report10 January Islamic State (IS) have released a video in which former militants associated with the PakistaniTaliban have declared their allegiance to IS and have beheaded a man identified as a Pakistanisoldier. One of the militants in the video is former Pakistani Taliban spokesman ShahidullahShahid, who declared his support for IS in October last year. The other militants in the videoidentify themselves as being from Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is not yet known where the videowas filmed.Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have claimed responsibility for a suicide attack on a Shiitemosque in Rawalpindi which killed seven people and wounded fifteen. In an email, aspokesperson of the Jamat-ul-Ahrar faction of the TTP said that “we want to make it clear tothese infidel rulers that we will not be impressed by any of their laws or hangings.”7 January A fifty two year old Muslim man who had been arrested for blasphemy was gunned down afterbeing released from jail. Police officials have confirmed that the man’s body was found in Taxila,a town in Pakistan’s Punjab province. The man was arrested in 2011 for claiming to claiming tobe Islam’s prophet, but was subsequently released by authorities on the grounds that he wasnot of sound mind. Under Pakistan’s blasphemy laws, the death penalty can be enacted if anindividual is found guilty of insulting Islam. There have, however, been numerous cases ofpeople taking these laws into their own hands.6-23 January Numerous ceasefire violations have occurred along the International Border (IB) between Indiaand Pakistan. On January 6, Pakistani Rangers fired across the border in the Kathua district. Alsoin the Kathua district, on January 12 and 13, Pakistani Rangers fired small arms and mortarshells across the IB. On January 20, Pakistan Rangers fired three shots across the IB in the Sambadistrict of Jammu and Kashmir, prompting the Indian Border Security Force (BSF) to retaliate.On January 23, members of the BSF exchanged small arms fire with Pakistani Rangers along theIB in the Samba sector of Jammu and Kashmir. On 30 January, Pakistani Rangers exchanged firewith the BSF in the Jammu district, injuring three people in the Arnia sub-sector.5 January In the Orakzai tribal district, at least four people have died and eight have been injured in abombing that took place at a volleyball match. The incident occurred on a playing field ownedby the local Shiite community. Although no one has claimed responsibility for the attack, boththe Taliban and Al-Qaeda have been known to target Afghanistan’s Shiite minority.4 January Pakistani intelligence officials claim U.S drone strikes in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristanhave killed seven militants and wounded four. The compound in which they had been hidingwas known to have been used by militants loyal Pakistani Taliban commander Hafiz GulBahadur. It is not known whether Bahadur was amongst those who were killed, several of whom- the officials claim - were his men.3 January At least thirty one militants have been killed in Pakistani airstrikes that took place in TirrahValley in the Khyber tribal district. A statement released by the Pakistani military has revealedthat four terrorist encampments and a suicide bomber training center were also destroyed inthe attack.Four people have died and hundreds have been forced to leave their homes as Indian andPakistani troops exchange fire along their border. Tensions along the India-Pakistan borderintensified after the deaths of an Indian border guard and two Pakistani soldiers last month. Asenior Indian police official has said that hundreds of people living in Samba and Hiranagar hadbeen forced to evacuate as the level of violence increased. On the Indian side, a woman and twosoldiers were killed after Pakistani rangers fired upon them with rocket propelled grenades. Onthe Pakistani side, a teenage girl was killed when Indian border guards returned fire. At leasttwo dozen civilians have died since October 6 last year, when hostility over Kashmir began toescalate. Two wars have so far been fought by India and Pakistan over Kashmir, which is jointlyadministered by both countries and is claimed entirely by each. Update (6 January) At least adozen people have now been killed in the artillery battles between Indian and Pakistani forces.123

Global Security ReportThousands more have been forced to flee their homes.2 January Following an amendment to Pakistan’s constitution, special courts for the trial of allegedterrorists will be implemented. Before the change can take place, an amendment will have to beapproved by Pakistan’s National Assembly. If it passes through the lower house of parliament,it will then come before the senate for final approval. The proposed courts have been the mostcontroversial of the new anti-terror measures suggested by Pakistani Prime Minister NawazSharif after the Taliban attack on a school in Peshawar last month. Update (19 January) Aconstitutional amendment that allows military courts to try terror suspects has been signed intoeffect. Civil rights groups in Pakistan have been critical of the decision, claiming that it willviolate the separation of powers.1 January At least twenty three insurgents have been killed in Pakistani airstrikes in the North Waziristantribal district. Four insurgent hideouts were also destroyed during the attack. North Waziristanhas been the scene of many such incidents since the Pakistani military began a major offensiveagainst the Taliban in June 2014.India and Pakistan have exchanged details of their nuclear facilities in an attempt to preventeither country from attacking the other’s atomic installations. It is the 24th such exchange ofinformation to have taken place between the two countries since January 1, 1992.NepalA possible terrorist incident was averted when the crew of a Pakistani fishing boat detonatedexplosives aboard their vessel after being pursued by the Indian navy. The boat was first spottedby the Indian Navy on New Year’s Eve in the Arabian Sea, 365 kilometres off the western coastof India. After coast guard vessels and aircraft tried to intercept the ship, warning shots werefired. This caused the four men on board to hide below decks and, it is believed, triggerexplosives they had on board. All four members of the crew died in the ensuing fire.12-20 January Tensions have risen in Nepal over the drafting of a new constitution. On January 12, a man wasallegedly been beaten to death by police officers in Kathmandu while taking part in a strikecalled by a coalition of 30 opposition parties over the government’s unilateral decision to redraftthe constitution. On January 13, over 100 activists were arrested by police for property damage.On January 18, at least six people were injured when more than 2,000 activists clashed withpolice during a protest in Kathmandu over demands for Nepal to be reconstituted as a Hindustate. On January 20, opposition lawmakers attacked the parliamentary speaker while thegovernment was in session. Maoist opposition leaders have accused the ruling coalition of tryingto push the constitution draft through without seeking out the consensus of minority parties.Nepal’s political parties have been trying to reach an agreement on a new constitution since2008 but repeated deadlines have been missed.Sri Lanka28 January Sri Lankan police are investigating claims that a man who is believed to have smuggled over1,000 kilos of heroin into Columbo had political protection. Investigators have uncovered aconnection between the arrested man, Samantha Kumara Vithanage, and lawmaker DumindaSilva, who was connected to the defence ministry under the former administration of MahindaRajapakse. The police have secured a court order to track down any illicit financial transactionsthat may have taken place between the two men. Silva will be unable to leave the country whilethe investigation is under way as his passport has been impounded in connection with anunrelated murder case.12 January After losing last week’s election, former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse has beenaccused by his successor of attempting to stage a military coup. An aide close to new presidentMaithripala Sirisena has claimed that Rajapakse made overtures to the army and the police tohelp him stay in power. Sources say that only when they refused to help did he agree to step124

Global Security Reportdown. Sri Lanka’s new cabinet will investigate this allegation when parliament reopens laterthis month.3 - 9 January Incidents of voter intimidation and other repressive practices designed to thwart thedemocratic process have increased in the lead-up to the Sri Lankan presidential election. On 3January, 2015 unidentified assailants firing from a vehicle injured one person as the principalopposition candidate, Maithripala Sirisena left a meeting in his Polonnaruwa districtconstituency. The attack against Sirisena came a day after twenty of his supporters were injuredafter being attacked with rocks at a political rally. In the lead-up to the January 8 election,campaign related violence has escalated dramatically across Sri Lanka. According to police, adeputy minister and twelve other elected officials have been arrested on counts of violence.Voter intimidation has also been rife. According to various international observers, complaintshad been made against the military for erecting roadblocks to prevent or at least discourageminority Tamils from being able to vote in the elections. A local monitoring group, the Centrefor Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV) has documented 420 incidence of violence andintimidation. According to a spokesperson for CMEV, the police have repeatedly turned a blindeye to such behavior. Update (9 January) - Maithripala Sirisena has defeated MahindaRajapakse in the Sri Lankan presidential election.South - Eastern AsiaCambodia25 January Eight Vietnamese Montagards have been deported by the Cambodia government on the groundsthat they are illegal immigrants. A local police chief in Ratanakiri Province said that the groupwere not Montagard asylum seekers, a position which has been questioned in the Cambodianmedia. Wan-Hea Lee, country director for the U.N’s Office of the High Commissioner for HumanRights has said that the Montagards were deported before his office had had an opportunity tocontact them. At least thirty two other Montagard asylum seekers are currently hiding in theforests of eastern Cambodia.13 January A sting operation led by undercover narcotics officers has led to the arrest of nine people inPhnom Penh and the seizure of 802 grams of methamphetamine. Police officials have confirmedthat the day before the operation was carried out, the smugglers’ ringleader had left for Burmato acquire more drugs, thereby evading capture. It is further claimed that the ringleader was thehead of a church in Phnom Penh which acted as a front for his drug dealing operation.12 January Thai military officials have denied allegations that their soldiers burned alive two Cambodiansmugglers. Reports in the Cambodian press have alleged that Thai soldiers burned the two menalive in car tyres after they were caught crossing illegally into Thailand. Thai officials have askedfor the story to be dropped, on the grounds that it might damage positive relations betweenThailand and Cambodia.Indonesia24 January A member of Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission has been arrested for orderingwitnesses to perjure themselves in a case relating to a 2010 local election.17 January Five foreign nationals and one native Indonesian have been executed in Indonesia on drugtrafficking charges, despite efforts by their respective governments to have their sentencescommuted. Four men from Brazil, Malawi, Nigeria and the Netherands, an Indonesian womanand a Vietnamese were shot by firing squads. After their appeals were refused, Brazil and theNetherlands withdrew their ambassadors from Indonesia.13 January Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s nomination of General Budi Gunawan as police chief hascome under scrutiny from the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). An official for the KPKhas claimed that Gunawan is under investigation for holding multiple suspicious bank accounts125

Global Security Reportwhich he opened while acting as chief of the police’s bureau of human resources. Gunawan hasyet to comment on the allegations. Update (16 January) In response to the ongoinginvestigation into General Gunanwa, President Widodo has “postponed but not cancelled” hisnomination for the General as police chief.12 January A terrorism suspect has been killed by Indonesian police as part of an on-going counter-terroroperation. Ilham Syafii has shot and killed by members of counter-terror squad Densus 88, whohave been conducting raids in Sulawesi over the past three days. Police officials claim that Syafiiwas a suspected courier for a group called the Mujahadeen of East Indonesia (MIT) and wasbelieved to be in possession of information regarding the whereabouts of terrorist cell leaders.Six individuals believed to be connected to MIT were arrested during the course of the raids.11 January A Indonesian man has been arrested by customs and excise officials for trying to smuggle 2.4kilograms of crystal methamphetamine from Malaysia. The arrest was made at Sri Bintan PuraInternational Port in Tanjung Pinang, Riau Islands. The courier is believed to have beenrecruited in Malaysia and was under instruction to distribute the drug throughout the islands.8 January Indonesia and the United States are set to increase their level of military cooperation afterrepresentatives of both governments signed an action plan designed to substantially increasethe U.S Defence Institution Reform Initiative (DIRI) in Indonesia. In 2014, Indonesia and the U.Stook part in over 500 military activities and according to U.S Deputy Ambassador Kristen Bauer,more are planned to take place throughout the year. Although concerns over human rightsabuses caused the United States to sever ties with Indonesia in the early ‘90s, full diplomaticrelations were restored in 2005.4-5 January Travel warnings to Indonesia have been issued by the Australian, American and Britishgovernments, following the receipt of intelligence about a potential terrorist attack. The threegovernments have advised their citizens to exercise a high degree of caution while travelling inIndonesia, especially in areas where there is very little protective security.1 January A security guard and two police officers have been killed at a copper mine in eastern Indonesia.The three men had been on duty at the U.S owned Freeport-McMoran mine. A policespokesperson has confirmed that the men had been attacked with machetes and that one hadbeen shot. An investigation into the deaths is currently underway.Malaysia26 January A hijacked chemical tanker has been successfully recovered by Malaysian authorities northeastof Tanjung Penawar. The Sun Birdie was carrying 700 tons of marine fuel oil when it washijacked south of Tanjung Ayam in Malaysia. When authorities boarded the vessel, seven of thehijackers were found aboard while two others escaped into the sea. The Sun Birdie sailed backto Penggerang for further investigation. This is the latest example of a growing trend for fuelsyphoning used by gangs operating in the region.23 January Malaysian Home Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has revealed that at least 300 Chinese nationalshave used Malaysia as a transit point on their way to join the Islamic State (IS) terror group inIraq and Syria. This was confirmed in a meeting between Hamidi and China’s Vice-Minister ofPublic Security Meng Hongwei. It is not yet known whether the Chinese IS supporters have tieswith Malaysian extremists or whether they are simply using Malaysia as a convenient stoppingoffpoint en route to the Middle East.22 January Imprisoned members of the Islamic State (IS) terror group in Malaysia are being placed inisolation after prison warders discovered them attempting to recruit fellow inmates. Accordingto Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Malaysia’s Home Minister, “They have been found to influence othercriminals in joining the ideology. These are hardcore people who were detained before leavingto fight in Iraq and Syria.” According to the latest figures, 67 Malaysians have left to fight in Iraqand Syria while at least 120 IS supporters have been detained before they could travel to the126

Global Security ReportMiddle East.17 January A Malaysian man who is believed to have been the ringleader of an alleged Islamic State terrorcell operating in Australia has been deported to Kuala Lumpur where he was met by counterterrorismofficers. It is believed that the individual was responsible for recruiting fighters andarranging for their travel through Australia to Turkey and Syria.14 January Police investigating the murder of a Myanmar refugee whose body was found in centralSeberang Perai believe that they have stumbled upon a human-trafficking ring. During thecourse of their investigation, state police officers raided a house in Kulim and rescued seventeenMyanmar nationals detained inside. Two Myanmar men and a Bangladeshi were guarding thehouse and have been arrested. Five locals have also been arrested in relation to the ongoinginvestigation.13 January The Malaysian police’s efforts to restrict the activities of the Islamic State (IS) terror group havebeen so successful that a warning has been posted on an IS website, advising Indonesian recruitsnot to travel though Malaysia. According to the post, many Indonesian’s who had used Malaysiaas a transit point had been arrested upon arrival. The post then advised potential recruits to usealternative routes though Brunei, Hong Kong and China to get to Turkey and then to Syria.3 January An increasingly large number of Rohingya Muslims are seeking political asylum in Malaysia afterfleeing from violence in Myanmar. Malaysia has not ratified the United Nations Convention onrefugees and as such those who arrive in Malaysia are unable to find legal work. Last year,Malaysia’s Home Minister said that the government would try to find a way of granting therefugees work permits, but this has not happened as yet. It is believed that almost 18,000refugees have arrived in Malaysia in recent months.Myanmar20 January Over 100 Chinese citizens caught between government forces and ethnic Kachin rebels innorthern Myanmar have been arrested. Local government officials claimed that the Chinesenationals entered Myanmar illegally, an allegation denied by individuals concerned.Representatives from the Chinese embassy have arrived in Kachin state and are working tosecure the release of their citizens.16 January A new military offensive against ethnic Kachin rebels has forced hundreds of people to leavetheir homes in Kachin state. Conflict broke out between the rebels and government forces whenthe Kachin Independence Army (KIA) took the state transport minister hostage. In response,around 1,000 soldiers were dispatched to the combat zone. Soon after, the transport minister,Kamann Du Naw, was released. It is, however, believed that three police officers are still beingheld by the rebels. Tensions in the region have been on the increase since the army attacked arebel stronghold in November. At least twenty people died in the attack, leaving untold numbersinjured.8 January A man has been sentenced to death after a Myanmar court found him guilty of the 2013 bombingof a hotel, an attack which cost the lives two people. According to the court, Saw Tun Tunbombed a guest house in Taungoo, a city in the Bago region of Myanmar. The hotel bombing wasone in a series of unexplained explosions which occurred throughout Myanmar. Saw Tun Tunlater claimed that he had planted the bomb after being paid about 20,000 kyat by a man namedSaw Htowah. Police officers have been unable to discover the whereabouts of this individual orthe motivation behind the attack. Authorities have speculated that the explosions may havebeen perpetrated by members of the Karen National Union (KNU), an ethnic minority rebelgroup.The arrival in Myanmar of the United Nation’s Special Rapporteur on Myanmar has sparked alarge scale protest. Nearly 1,000 people gathered outside an airport in western Myanmar toprotest the visit. Yanghee Lee’s arrival in Myanmar comes days after the UN adopted a127

Global Security Reportresolution urging the state to extend the rights of citizenship to the minority Muslim Rohingya.Hundreds of Rohingya have died and thousands have been displaced since clashes eruptedbetween them and the Buddhist majority in 2012. In passing the resolution, the UN GeneralAssembley has encouraged Myanmar to end its human rights abuses against ethnic minorities.1 January A number of protestors demanding the closure of the Letpadaung copper mine in the Sagaingregion have been arrested by police for holding an illegal demonstration. They were amongst100 or so protesters who fought with police outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon. Theprotests were sparked by the death of a woman outside the Letpadaung copper mine last month.Update (13 January) - Two more protestors have been arrested by police.Philippines25 January A motorcycle bomb in the Southern Philippines has killed two people and wounded one other.Two men riding the motorcycle were believed to be carrying the bomb when it exploded in Pikiton the island of Mindadao.24 January Forty three police officers have been killed by Muslim extremists in the southern Philippineswhile pursuing terrorist bomb makers. The police officers, members of the elite Special ActionForce (SAF) were killed in a twelve hour long firefight in Maguindanao Province with membersof the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The bomb maker, Zulkili bin Hir, is a Malaysianwith links to Jemaah Islamiyah and is the Philippines most wanted terrorist. After his arrest,investigators were unable to find any links between him and a reported bomb threat on PopeFrancis’s visit to the Philippines. A MILF spokesperson has confirmed the incident but hasdeclined to comment on the number of fighters killed or wounded. The confrontation is believedto have begun when police arrived unannounced in a MILF controlled area in search of membersof the MILF splinter group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF). Peace talksbetween MILF and the Philippino government are underway, with legislation currently beingexamined in parliament that would grant Muslims minority rule in a number of southernprovinces.23 January Al-Qaeda linked militants have been blamed for an explosion which killed two people andinjured fifty four others in the southern Philippines. According to witnesses, a parked carexploded outside a bus terminal on the outskirts of Zamboanga city. Although no one has yetclaimed responsibility for the attack, Zamboanga city mayor Isabelle Climaco has claimed thatthe explosion was linked to an Abu Sayyaf plan to help fifty seven of their comrades escape froma local gaol. Climaco has asked federal authorities to remove the prisoners to a more securelocation. In a possibly related incident, Zamboanga prison wardens discovered Abu Sayyafsupporters trying to pass weapons and ammunition to the detainees on January 19, 2015.20 January Three members of Abu Sayyaf have been killed and six have been wounded in clashes withPhilippine troops in southern Basilan province. A military spokesperson said that the offensivewas launched after villagers informed them of the group’s presence. They were believed to bethe same rebels who were responsible for an attack in November 2014 that left six soldiers deadabout 900 kilometres south of Manila.14 January In Mawawi, around 1,500 people have gathered to protest French satirical magazine CharlieHebdo’s caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed. In a statement issued by the protest’sorganizers, the Charlie Hebdo attacks were described as a “moral lesson for the world to respectany kind of religion, especially the religion of Islam.”13 January In what has been described by senior military officers as their governments “biggest securitynightmare”, an estimated 37,000 police and military personnel have been deployed to protectPope Francis 1 on his inaugural visit to the Philippines. Amid threats made against the Pontiffby Islamic terror groups, the Philippines will be placed of full alert for the duration of his visit.6 January In an attempt to lower the Philippines’ crime rate, the Philippino government has announced a128

Global Security Reportraft of new anti-crime measures that will be implemented over the course of the year. Later thismonth, the Philippine National Police (PNP) will introduce comprehensive video surveillance in100 high crime areas in Manilla as well as CCTV in all police stations. In March, the PNP willintroduce a new, digitized crime incident reporting system in Metro Manila. 1,000 new patrolvehicles, 5,000 new firearms and 52,000 new radios will also be issued to police officers later inthe year. These improvements to the PNP’s operational capability will be augmented by a newnational emergency hotline capable of fielding calls for police, fire and ambulance services.The United States Embassy in the Philippines has claimed that the small Navy drone whichwashed ashore was being used for training and not for surveillance. Philippine police officialshave stated that the drone was first noticed by fishermen in the country’s northeast, near thecoast of Patnanungan. In a statement released by the embassy, it has been claimed that the drone“[did] not carry weapons and is not used for surveillance. [The drone] is used by surface shipsand aircraft during exercises to help train our sailors in a realistic environment…” Terry Ridon,a member of the Philippines legislature, has speculated that the drone may have been used bythe U.S to survey the area to assess the value of the Philippines natural assets.3 January In the southern Philippines, one soldier was killed and two others were wounded when Muslimmilitants attacked military encampments. Attacks were launched by Bangsamoro IslamicFreedom Fighters (BIFF) against camps in Sultan Kudarat province and Maguindano province.A military spokesperson said that the attacks were designed to undermine the negotiationswhich are currently underway between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.1 January Two people have died and thirty have been wounded in terrorist attack that took place in apublic market in the southern Philippines. Officials have confirmed that the homemadeexplosive device was detonated at the entrance of a crowded market place in Mlang, a town inNorth Cotabato. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack, but authorities believe it mayhave been perpetrated by the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, a group which broke awayfrom the Moro Islamic Liberation Front some years earlier.Singapore27 January Singapore has declared war on cyber crime by appointing a minister in charge of cyber securityand launching a new central agency that will consolidate and coordinate cyber security efforts.The new cyber security organization will commence operations on April 1 this year under theadministration of Yaacob Ibrahim, Minister for Communications and Information.Thailand23 January An army appointed legislature has impeached former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra overa scheme to subsidize rice farmers. The allegations center on a scheme whereby Yingluck’sgovernment purchased rice from Thai farmers at a higher price than that which was dictated bythe market. Anti-corruption investigators have accused Yingluck and her party of using thisscheme to buy votes from farmers, thereby augmenting her governments power base. Yingluckmaintains that the scheme was designed, first and foremost, to assist the rural poor and that asshe has not been in office for several months she cannot be impeached. Yingluck could faces upto ten years in prison for her role in the rice subsidy scheme.13 January Police have intercepted five trucks carrying nearly 100 Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar asthey travelled through southern Thailand. The trucks were found in the Hua Sai district ofNakhon Si Thammarat province. Two of the Thai truck drivers were arrested by police oncharges of human trafficking. Update (14 January) Three of the Rohingya migrants have diedsince being discovered by police officers.6 - 7 January A fugitive Sikh terrorist wanted for the assassination of a Punjabi official has been arrested byThai police. Hurmeet Singh - also known as Jagtar Singh Tara - was arrested in Chon Buriprovince for the 1995 explosion which claimed the life of former Punjab chief minister Beant129

Global Security ReportSingh and several bystanders. Singh was one of six members of the Sikh separatist group BabbarKhalso International involved in the killing. The owner of the house in which Singh was arrestedwas also taken in by police, although the man denied any knowledge of his guest’s criminal past.On 7 January, a Bangkok court ordered Singh to be extradited to India where he will faceadditional charges.4 January A group of fifty three migrants have been detained by authorities in southern Thailand afterreceiving information that they were being smuggled through the country. Thirty seven of themigrants are believed to be Rohingya Muslims from Bangladesh and officials have confirmedthat the group’s final destination was Malaysia. The drivers of the trucks fled when policestopped them at checkpoints in Takua Pa. A government spokesperson has stated that if themigrants are found to be the victims of human trafficking, they will given shelter. Otherwise,they will be charged by Malaysian authorities with illegal entry.Vietnam19 January In Hao Binh, eight people have been given the death penalty and five others have received lifesentences for smuggling 180 kilograms of heroin through Vietnam’s northern provinces. Afurther seventeen defendants received goal terms ranging from six to twenty years for a varietyof offences, including drug trafficking, murder and illegal use of weapons. The ring was brokenup by police in June 2011.10 January A Russian man has been arrested by Vietnamese border guards after being caught trying tosmuggle 2.3kilograms of marijuana leaves from Laos to Vietnam. Vladimir Shperling was caughtwhile trying to enter Vietnam through the Lao Bao International Border Gate. Subsequentinvestigation by the border guards revealed that Shperling was wanted by Interpol for othertrafficking offences.OceaniaAustralia24 January Australia’s Federal Government is concerned that an increasingly large number of its citizensare travelling to the Middle East to fight alongside the Islamic State (IS) terror group in Iraq andSyria. According to Attorney-General George Brandis, around ninety Australian’s are believedto be involved in the conflict, despite the introduction of legislation designed to prevent wouldbejihadis from travelling to conflict zones around the world. The Attorney-General said “[m]oreand more young people are…being enticed and ensnared here in Australia with the falseglamour of participating in the civil war on behalf of ISIL, or daesh.” He also commented on anew trend to have emerged over the last six months, which has seen a growing number of youngwomen leaving Australia to participate in the fighting as well.Six people have been arrested and more than $10 million in illegal drugs have been seized in amassive police operation in Melbourne’s western and northern suburbs. The drug haul included2,800 cannabis plants, 25 kilos off dried marijuana plants, two kilos of methamphetamine andmore than half a kilo of heroin and cocaine. According to Assistant Police Commissioner StephenFontana, a multi-million dollar Vietnamese drug syndicate is believed to be behind thetrafficking offences.In western Sydney, four people have been arrested after taking part in a protest against Frenchsatirical magazine Charlie Hebdo’s depiction of the Prophet Mohammed. Police have confirmedthat the 800-strong rally, which took place outside the Lakemba train station, was organised bycontroversial Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir. A spokesperson for the group said “[i]t isunacceptable for a Muslim to remain silent in the face of the attacks on our beloved prophet.”130

Global Security Report20 January Following terrorist attacks on soldiers and police in Canada and France, the national threat levelfor Australian police has been raised to “high”. In a statement issued by the Australian FederalPolice, the upgrade was described as a response to the “increasingly complex and challenging”security environment. Referred to specifically were the increasing numbers of Australians whoare sympathetic to the views and activities of groups such as Islamic State (IS).17 January Malaysian counter-terror officials have arrested a Malaysian man for allegedly running anIslamic State (IS) terror cell in Australia. The man was deported from Australia earlier in theweek after authorities became suspicious of him. Authorities claim that the man had set up inAustralia to avoid the attention of Bukit Aman, the Malaysian counter-terror unit that has beencracking down on potential terrorists in recent months.9 January A thirty three year old man has been arrested by police in western Sydney as part of an ongoingcounter-terror operation. However, after appearing in Parramatta Local court, the solicitor forthe arrested man said that as yet his client had not been charged with terror related offences.4 January Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has pledged an additional $5 million in aid to help theIraqi government in its fight against the Islamic State (IS) terror group. Abbott arrived inBaghdad to discuss Australia’s role in the fight against IS. Abbott said that “It’s a struggle notjust for the people of Iraq…but for the whole world because…the ISIL death cult has declaredwar against the world.” Around 600 Australian Defence Force personnel have been deployed toIraq, 400 of whom have been assigned to the Air Task Group and 200 of whom are acting asmilitary advisers to Iraqi forces. The additional $5 million in assistance brings Australia’s totalfinancial commitment in Iraq up to $22 million. It is, however, thought likely that the cost toAustralia of deploying its forces in Iraq will be in the region of $260 million over the 2014/2015financial year.New Zealand1 January Mark John Taylor, a suspected member of Islamic State (IS) has accidentally tweeted his locationfrom Syria. Taylor, who is believed to answer to the name Mohammad Daniel or Abu AbdulRahman, had forgotten to turn of the location finder service on his twitter account, therebyadvertising his location every time he posted a message. According to news reports, Taylor wasarrested by Pakistani authorities in 2009 after attempting to gain access to a known al Qaedaand Taliban stronghold in Afghanistan. After working as an English teacher in Indonesia for twoyears, he arrived in Syria via Turkey in June.131

Global Security ReportEuropeEastern EuropeBelarus29 January The Belarusian Foreign Ministry announced that representatives from Ukraine, Russia and theOrganization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will meet in Belarus’ capital Minskfor a new round of talks aimed at ending fierce fighting in eastern Ukraine. The meeting wasannounced shortly after Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko called for urgent talks followinga flare-up of violence in the region in recent weeks.Bulgaria28 January The Bulgarian foreign ministry has reported that six Bulgarians, working as a part of the UnitedNation’s World Food Program (WFP), have been detained by Sudanese rebels, after theirhelicopter was forced to make an emergency landing in Sudan’s war-torn province of SouthKordofan. The detained Bulgarians are comprised of a three-man helicopter crew and threeofficers of the Sofia-based Heli Air. The helicopter flew into the active combat zone in SouthKordofan, which has been subject to bombing by the government, after it was unable tocomplete its flight from South Sudan to Khartoum. The Bulgarian government is currentlyworking with the office of UN Secretary General, UN Under-Secretary General for HumanitarianAffairs, the leadership of the UN's World Food Program, and other UN agencies to ensure thesafe release of the Bulgarian nationals.20 January In the wake of the attack against the Charlie Hebdo magazine in Paris, a Bulgarian court ruledtoday to extradite a French national, wanted with alleged connections to the terrorists whocarried out the attacks on the French satirical magazine. The alleged suspect, Fritz-Joly Joachin,made the decision to be voluntarily taken back to his home country and surrender to the Frenchjudicial authorities after being arrested by Bulgarian police on January 1 at a Bulgarian-Turkishborder crossing. Joachin was arrested on a European arrest warrant issued by Frenchprosecutors, charging him with participating in organized crime with a terrorist aim.Czech Republic14 January The Czech government has agreed to treat some ill or injured children of Syrian refugees andoffer their families asylum. Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka says 15 families and a total of some70 Syrian refugees now in camps in Jordan will be part of the program as a gesture of solidarity.However, the Czech authorities are planning a check to insure that the refugees do not pose asecurity threat for the country. According to the government, the move has been requested bythe U.N. and the European Union.6 January Czech Republic’s chief sanitary officer, Vladimir Valenta, announced that the passengers offlights arriving in the country no longer have to fill in special forms over the Ebola epidemic.The central epidemiology commission and the National Security Council lifted the duty forpassengers based on the declaration by the European Union and the World Health Organization.According to the declaration, there is in place an effective screening of departing passengers atthe airports in the most afflicted African countries, namely Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Tothe present, no Ebola case has been registered in the Czech Republic.132

Global Security ReportHungary26 January Hungary’s ruling center Fidesz members have to fend off a series of allegations against themregarding corruption reports, diplomatic disputes and policy inconsistencies. Helped by a weakopposition, despite the scandals the Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, remains firmly in control ofthe country and of the party he has led for most of its 27-year history and he does not faceanother parliamentary election until 2018. Currently, Orban has to fend off criticism outsideHungary too, with his Western allies accusing him of following what the perceive as anauthoritarian rule to enforce his country’s ties with Russia.10 January Hundreds of Hungarians once again take to the streets over the government’s new plans to taxthe internet, and implement mandatory drug tests for every teenager, journalist and politician.Another measure that the government is planning to introduce will oblige every shop owner toclose its shop on Sundays. In late October a new round of mass protestations took place afterthe Prime Minister’s announcement that the government was planning to tax each gigabyte ofInternet traffic at 150 forints (0,40 pounds). The Hungarian Prime Minister is known for hisefforts to steer Hungary away from Europe and back towards Russia.MoldovaPolandNo major incidents to report.30 January Poland plans to allow civilians to sign up for military training. The government decided that thisis a precautionary measure against Russia’s aggressiveness and rushed to step up its definessystems amid fears over the ongoing military conflict in neighbouring eastern Ukraine. althoughPoland ended conscription in 2008, some 38,000 reservists will be called up to take part inexercises in 2016, compared to the 12,000 this year. The government also announced plans toinvolve paramilitary groups in its new defines policy.Romania27 January Two Romanian former ministers have been jailed for commercial espionage and trees in the saleof strategic state companies. The High Court of Cassation and Justice handed Former EconomyMinister Codrut Seres a sentence of four years and eight months for treason and transmittingstate secrets, and Zsolt Nagy, former communications minister, a four-year sentence for beingpart of a criminal group. The ruling is final.The chief of Romania’s Intelligence Service has resigned after criticizing the country’s top courtfor rejecting security laws, which allowed the government to collect data on people withoutcourt approval. The Constitutional Court earlier this month rejected laws that would haveallowed authorities to retain data and other personal details on people without persuading acourt that the person represented a security risk. The court justified its decision by claiming thatthe new laws were unconstitutional and violated human rights.23 January Vehemently criticized by civil society, the law on cyber security passed by Romania’s Parliamenta month ago has been declared unconstitutional. The Constitutional Court issued this rulingfollowing a complaint by a group of Liberal MPs, in opposition, who warned that the respectivelaw violated the right to privacy on the Internet. This is the third law in a so-called ‘’Big Brotherpackage’’ to be declared unconstitutional.Russian Federation30 January The European Union decided to extend by six months a first set of sanctions against Russia thatwere supposed to expire in March. The Foreign Ministers of the 28 EU member states agreed onthe extended sanctions against Moscow following renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine. EUleaders must approve the sanctions on Russia at a summit meeting on February 12 in Brussels.133

Global Security ReportRussia is calling on the U.N. Security Council to help protect civilian jets from anti-aircraftweapons after the downing of a Malaysian airliner in Ukraine last year. The Russian positioncomes after it dismissed proposals by the U.N.’s aviation body, the International Civil AviationOrganization as ‘’superficial’’. The Security Council is much more powerful that ICAO and itsguidelines typically become regulatory requirements in its 191 member states.24 January Russia has blocked a UN Security Council statement, backed by Western powers, condemningthe shelling of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol that killed 30 civilians and injured more than 90.The proposed statement called for ‘’an immediate de-escalation of violence’’, implementation ofthe ceasefire agreement and an ‘’objective investigation’’ of the rocket fire in Mariupol. Russia’srepresentatives at the UN said in a statement that they vetoed the statement because Britainhad insisted on inserting condemnation of separatist ‘’self-defence’’ forces backed by Russia.23 January HIV is spreading at a dangerous rate in nations around the Black Sea, passing a record 100,000new cases yearly. Hotspots for HIV rise are Russia and Ukraine, two countries facing economiccrisis and armed conflict, factors which could provoke a further surge in the virus. Smallercountries in the region are also recording rises in the numbers, with decade highs-registered inBelarus, Bulgaria and Turkey. None of these nations is experiencing a decreasing trend in newcases. According to the World Health Organization, due to the low uptake of HIV testing in theregion, up to 60% of viral carriers are unaware of their infection.19 January Two battalions of Russian soldiers crossed the border into Ukraine as government forces andpro-Russian rebels battled for control of the Donetsk airport. The incident comes after monthsof complaints from the Ukrainian government that Russia is providing the separatists withfunds and weapons. The Russian government denies any military involvement in Ukraine, andRussian Defence Ministry spokesman, Andrei Bobrun, declined to comment on the incident.SlovakiaUkraineNo major incidents to report.31 January A new round of talks was agreed after the cancellation of the previous one due to the ongoingbloodshed in eastern Ukraine. The new round of peace talks collapsed after just over four hourswith no tangible progress towards a new ceasefire. Ukraine’s representative and separatistenvoys angrily accused each other of sabotaging the meeting. Ukraine’s representative, LeonidKuchma, left the talks in Minsk, Belarus, says that separatist officials had undermined themeeting by making ultimatums and refusing to discuss a plan of measures for a quick ceasefireand a pull-back of heavy weapons. Denis Pushilin, one of the pro-Russian separatist officials,announced that they were ready for dialogue but not ready for ultimatums from Kiev whileshelling by their forces is going on in the background of towns in eastern Ukraine.At least 40 people have been reported killed as fighting between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels continues in the east of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials say 15 soldiers and 12civilians died in the last 24 hours. The rebels report 13 casualties. The separatists also claim tohave seized the town of Vuhlerirsk and surrounded the key hub of Debaltseve, but the Ukrainianmilitary denied this.30 January At least 12 civilians were killed in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk. Donetsk city hall said fivewere killed when a mortar shell hit nearby as they stood in line waiting for humanitarian aidnear a community center. Another two died when a shell landed near a trolleybus, while anotherfive died after being hit by artillery fire. Militia leaders gave a slightly different account, sayingthat five were killed in the mortar that hit near the bus. Meanwhile, a fresh round of peace talksthat were meant to be held in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, were called off amid the ongoing134

Global Security Reportbloodshed in eastern Ukraine. The pro-Russian rebels were the first to announce theircancellation.29 January Five Ukrainian soldiers and three civilians were killed as a result of fighting in Ukraine’sseparatist eastern regions. The Kiev military announced that the protrusion separatists shelledUkrainian army positions in more than 100 separate attacks in the last 24 hours, describing thesituation across the conflict zone as ‘’tense’’. Fighting was particularly fierce at the strategictown of Debaltseve, where government troops are defending their positions from rebels whohave vowed to encircle it to safeguard their main strongholds. The pro-Russian rebels claimedthat Ukrainian forces has attacked their positions near Donetsk airport and Debaltseve 10 timesthe last couple of days.27 January The U.N. political chief announced that the deadly rocket attacks on the Ukrainian port city ofMariupol that ‘’knowingly targeted civilians’’ violated international humanitarian law and couldamount to war crimes. Representatives from the Organization for Security and Cooperation inEurope who examined the craters reported that the rockets originated from territory controlledby pro-Russian rebel separatists. The attack came a day after the rebels rejected a Septembercease-fire agreement and announced they were going on a multi-pronged offensive against theUkrainian government in a bid to seize more territory.Ukrainian parliament has approved a document designating Russia as an aggressor state, andhas urged foreign states and international organisations to do the same. The parliament alsosupported designating the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhanks People’s Republics as terroristorganisations. A total of 271 of 289 registered for the vote supported the decision.Pro-Russian separatist forces announced that they had passed Ukrainian government troopsout of two districts on the outskirts of their main stronghold Donetsk, and their objective is toexpand their control to the entire regional rebel advanced launched last week dashed the fivemonthcease-fire. According to the separatists, their initial goal is to drive back governmentforces to push artillery out of range of their cities and improve their grip on their mainstrongholds.26 January Aid workers in Ukraine are warning that the central government’s decision to cut offhumanitarian aid to the separatist-held east in November has resulted in urgent shortages ofnarcotics substitutes for drug addicts, a policy that could undo years of progress in curbing thecountry’s fast-growing AIDS epidemic. Thousands of people in rebel-held Donetsk and Kuhansk,as well as at least 800 others in the Crimean Peninsula are in dire need of opioid substitutiontherapy (OST) as a means of preventing the contraction or transmission of HIV. Supplies arerunning dangerously low, with more then 300 OST patients in Donetsk and Luhansk losingaccess to treatment and another 500 patients set to run out within the month.24 January According to Ukrainian police, at least 20 people have been killed and dozens injured in rocketattacks by pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine’s government-held port of Mariupol. Gradrockets hit a market in a residential eastern area. The pro-Russian rebel leader announced thatan offensive against Mariupol has begun. Since April, more than 5,000 people have died infighting in the east.22 January Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from Donetsk airport’s main terminal. The Ukrainiangovernment said the military still retained control of parts of the airport, but six soldiers haddied and 16 had been wounded. In the center of the rebel-held city, shelling hit a bus, killing 13people. The government claims that the ‘’terrorists’’ shelled the passenger transport from cityresidential areas controlled by the rebels. Russia blames the attack on Ukrainian troops,branding it as a ‘’crime against humanity’’. At least nine people were killed and up to 20 injuredin a another shelling attack in Donetsk. In the wake of the attack, conflicting reports emergedover the arrests of what local authorities call a ‘covert group’. A spokesman for the Ukrainianpresident announced that he has called an emergency meeting to discuss the rebel attacks,which Ukraine believes are supported by Russia. The pro-Russian rebels and the government135

Global Security Reporttraded blame of the attack, which comes nine days after a shell also killed 13 people on a bus inthe village of Buhas outside Volnovakha, 35km south-west of Donetsk.Foreign ministers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine have announced some progressat urgent talks in Berlin on the crisis in eastern Ukraine. The talks aim in establishing aprocedure for the withdrawal of heavy weapons from a demarcation line, which shouldestablish security zones between pro-Russian militants and governmental forces. Seriousconcern was also expressed regarding the escalation of the fighting in eastern Ukraine, causingthe loss of many human lives.21 January The Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, Russia has more than 9,000 soldiers and 500 tanks,heavy artillery and armored personnel carriers in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian president,publicly urged Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and comply with the ceasefireagreement, amid escalating fighting between Ukrainian governmental troops and pro-Russianrebels in the east of the country. The Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) missionin Ukraine on January 22 announced that there has not registered any movement of militaryvehicles on the border between Russia and Ukraine.20 January The Ukrainian military spokesman reported that Ukrainian army units came under attack fromRussian regular forces in eastern Ukraine and heavy fighting took place. The Ukrainian militaryunits were attacked in the north of the anti-terrorist operational zone by regular militaryformations of the armed forces of Russia. Currently heavy fighting is continuing near thecheckpoints 29 and 31. He added that the Ukrainian forces have stopped the advance of theRussian troops. Russia denies that any of its regular forces are deployed in Ukraine.19 January At least 13 people have been injured, six of them in critical condition, after an explosion tookplace outside a court house in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkov. According to thepreliminary information, the explosion went off at the end of a hearing regarding the case of amember of the nationalist Svododa party. The member had been accused of bringing a weaponto a polling station during the parliamentary election on October 26. The Ukrainian InteriorMinister said that the explosion in front of the court house has been qualified as a terrorist act.Shelling has hit a hospital in Donetsk city center in eastern Ukraine. One doctor and fivepatients, were wounded and the hospital was seriously damaged. Ukrainian government forcesand rebels continue the clashes near Donetsk’s main airport after a counter-offensive byUkrainian troops to reclaim lost ground.18 January A Ukrainian soldier was killed and three others were wounded after an elderly man pretendingto bring troops a jar of honey turns out to be an attacker in disguise, with the jar exploding. Theincident occurred at a checkpoint in the eastern of Ukraine, where a new wave of fightingbetween the government forces and the pro-Russian militants wracks the area in recent days.The man identifying himself as a local resident in Stanicya Lugans’ka in the Luhansk regionhanded the soldiers a 3-litre jar of honey and thanked them for their service before walkingaway. When the soldiers opened the jar it exploded. A recent upsurge in fighting has cast furtherdoubts on planned talks aimed at ending the war.Ukraine’s military reported that it has retaken almost all territory of Donetsk airport inUkraine’s east, which was lost to separatists in recent weeks. According to the militaryspokesman, Andriy Lysenko, the troops launched a ‘’mass operation’’ overnight after days ofheavy fighting against the pro-Russian militants. He added that after the operation the battlelines near the airport have returned to the previous status quo. Four Ukrainian soldiers havebeen killed and 32 have been injured during the last 24 hours according to Mr Lysenko. Rebelofficials announced that at least 2 civilians have been killed, bringing the toll to at least 23 deadduring the week, including 13 Ukrainian soldiers. A 7-year-old and a 16-year-old were alsokilled when a missile struck a house in the government-controlled town of Vuhlehirsk.136

Global Security Report16 January Health care is collapsing after nine months of conflict in eastern Ukraine, where lack ofmedicines and vaccines puts people at growing risk from diseases such as polio, measles andtuberculosis according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Conditions are especially direin the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk where people are trapped with little food. The fightingmakes it hard to get to hospitals, which are often cut off from water and electricity. In all, 5.1million people are affected by the humanitarian crisis, including 1.4 million deemed highlyvulnerable.13 January A passenger bus came under heavy fire in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 11 people accordingto the Ukrainian authorities’ announcement. Fighting has intensified around the internationalairport in the city of Donetsk as separatists are trying to oust government forces. The last violentincidents follow the unsuccessful summit in Kazakhstan between Russia, Ukraine, France andGermany. The new summit dressed the failure to implement the four-month-old ceasefireagreement between the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian rebels. Ukrainian President PetroPoroshenko condemned the bus attack and added that the forces of the separatist Donetsk andLuhansk People’s Republics were to blame.12 January Fighting around Donetsk has intensified the last days with heavy shelling on both sides as aseries of peace talks planned for Berlin and Astana where overshadowed by increasinglycombative rhetoric. A gas pipeline caught fire after it was hit by a shell and Ukraine sealed off anumber roads into separatist-held areas in response to the fierce fighting.The foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France have failed to agree on terms fora summit later this week aimed at defusing the crisis in eastern Ukraine. Representativesannounced that the meeting had been a ‘’very open exchange’’ but did not produce the resultsneed for the countries to go ahead with a meeting of leaders this week in Kazakhstan.Interpol has put ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yankovich and two members of his formergovernment on the international wanted list at the behest of Ukraine. Interpol announced thatYankovich and his former finance minister, Yuri Kolobov, were wanted in Ukraine on chargesof embezzlement and financial wrongdoing. Former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov was alsolisted through it was not clear what the Ukrainian charges against his were.11 January According to Ukrainian officials, at least four people have been killed as fierce battles betweengovernment troops and protrusion rebels continued to rage in eastern Ukraine in the past day.One Ukrainian soldier was killed and eight others were wounded in fighting with rebels acrossthe region over the last 24 hours. Separately, Tatiana Pogukay, spokesperson for the InteriorMinistry’s department in Luhansk region, announced shelling in Kryakovka village liked a 14-year-old girl, her mother and grandmother. The press office of the government’s militaryoperation blamed the rebels for shelling on populated areas, adding that the insurgents haveviolated a ceasefire deal 18 times in the past 24 hours.9 January The Ukrainian authorities announced that they are planning to increase the security at theeastern border. This decision was taken due to the fact that Russia does not make an effort toprevent dangerous elements violating the borders and travelling into Ukraine. Ukraine set upseveral mobile check points at the entrance to Crimea after Russia’s annexation of the peninsula,and Ukraine controls most of that border, but a significant part of the Russian-Ukraine borderremains under control of pro-Russian rebels.8 January After Ukrainian government’s decision in December to suspend all train and bus services toCrimea, a new announcement suspects all bus services into areas of east Ukraine controlled bypro-Russian rebels. According to the officials, the decision was taken in order to avoid threatsto the life and health of passengers. As of December, passenger trucks and cars are the only wayto cross into Crimea.7 January According to Kiev’s military, in the past 24 hours three Ukrainian have been killed in attacks bypro-Russian separatists. This incident is the most recent violation since the ceasefire was put in137

Global Security Reportplace. One soldier was shot by a sniper, while two others died in mortar and small arms attacksnear the international airport in the city of Donetsk. The Ukrainian soldiers’ deaths coincidedwith fresh diplomatic efforts to organise a summit in Kazakhstan in an attempt to restore peacein eastern Ukraine. Though large-scale clashes have diminished, sporadic fighting has continueddespite the ceasefire. The Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) through a pressrelease announced that the situation in ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’- controlled areas hasdeteriorated considerably.6 January The National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) spokesperson Andriy Lysenko announcedthe locations of seven humanitarian corridors along a 30 km buffer zone in east Ukraine.According to the plan, the Ukrainian authorities will restrict the movement of goods and peoplethrough the line of contact. There will be checkpoints manned by border guards that will be setup along the seven corridors. The identities of those crossing the ‘’border’’ will be establishedusing their passports.5 January A new round of negotiations have started in Berlin and will continue on January 9. The talks areconducted with participation of diplomats from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France. Thesenegotiations are considered as ‘’preparatory’’ for the summit that will take place in Astana,Kazakhstan on January 15. The main topic of the discussion is the ceasefire agreementimplementation. The meeting on January 5 concluded but some issues remain unresolved. OnJanuary 9 the foreign ministers of each country will held negotiations over the phone.4 January An explosion in Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odessa in the middle of the night ripped through abuilding that housed the office of the local EuroMaidan coordination center. The organizationtried recently to raise donations for Ukrainian soldiers fighting against the pro-Russian rebelsin the east of the country. No one was injured from the explosion. The Ukrainian police reportedthat the attack will be perceived as an act of terrorism and started an investigation. Accordingto the Ukrainian authorities, another explosion took place on January 3, in a railway station nearOdessa. A tank wagon with petroleum products exploded as a result of the detonation of anexplosive device. The police announced that this attack too is linked with terrorism.Northern EuropeDenmark19 January Following the terror attacks in Paris, the Danish authorities decided to raise the official policealert level for the first time. Danish police have gone from level one, ‘’daily preparedness’’, on itsfive-point scale to level two, ‘’slightly elevated preparedness. Despite the rise of the threat level,the Danish authorities stressed that Denmark does not face any concrete threats. The raisedalert level entails all police districts examining their own security and updating their emergencypreparedness plans.16 January The Danish government has given reassurances to its unnerved Jewish community that it willdo its utmost to provide necessary security in the wake of the killing of four Jews at the koshersupermarket in Paris. A meeting between the Danish Minister for Justice and the Deputy Headof the Jewish Community took place where the Danish Minister informed the representative ofthe Jewish Community, Jonathan Fischer, that despite the fact that no outright, concrete threatshas been made against the Jews in Denmark the Danish Security and Intelligence Service deemsJewish and Israeli targets in the country to be especially vulnerable. The Danish Ministerreassured that the safety and security of the Jewish community will be guaranteed and there isgoing to be no tolerance for anti-Semitism.The Danish Trade and Development Minister, Mogens Jensen, announced that Denmark willsupport the victims and humanitarian situation in Nigeria and neighbouring countries with 12.5million kroner via the UN and the aid organization Red Cross. He added that ‘’the victims of138

Global Security ReportBoko Haram’s attack need help’’ and Danish people are prepared to provide the victims withfood, clothing, shelter and the ‘’opportunity to get through the crisis’’.7 January After the attack against the Charlie Hebdo newspaper’s offices, the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, which provoked a series of protests across the Muslim world after it published cartoonsof the Prophet Muhammad 10 years ago, decides to step up security. The cartoons werepublished in 2005 and most of them depicted the Prophet Muhammad. The newspaperannounced that it is in close contact with Danish authorities.EstoniaFinlandIrelandNo major incidents to report.No major incidents to report.31 January Thousands took the streets of Ireland to protest against the introduction of water charges aspart of its bailout austerity programs following the 2008 financial crisis. The Irish governmentcommitted to charging households for water as part of its EU-IMF bailout, announced in 2010,but opposition against the fees has surged ahead of the first bills being sent out in April. InNovember, Prime Minister Enda Kenny’s coalition government, which came into power in 2011,slashed the charges in the wake of the protests but opposition remains.24 January Dozens of IRA and loyalist paramilitary veterans are in danger of being arrested after the Policeservice of Northern Ireland (PSNI) announced intention to seek all the taped testimonies thatform the core of the controversial Boston College Belfast Project. The project, set up in 2001, isan archive of candid interviews with those directly involved in paramilitary violence between1969 and 1994 in Northern Ireland. The participants took part in the project under the promisethat these interviews would be released only to historians, researchers and journalists once theyare dead. But now the PSNI is going to the courts in the US is an attempts to obtain all theproject’s tapes.20 January The Irish government announced a new legislation containing new anti-terrorism measuresthat will hand out jail sentences of up to 10 years for recruiting, training or promoting terrorism.The legislation is expected to bring Ireland into the line with most of the EU, which adoptedsimilar legislation in the past. According to the country’s Foreign Minister, Charlie Flanagan, thenew legislation is going to be put in effect in a matter of weeks.16 January Irish police announced that they have arrested a suspected French-Algerian militant at DublinAirport as he tried to enter Ireland using a false passport. Police decline to identify the man butsay he appeared on a European-wide watch list after he expressed support in social media forthe jihadist attacks in Paris. The man was being interrogated t a police station in north Dublinnear the airport.12 January The Foreign Affairs minister announced that Ireland must remain on alert against the threat ofIslamic extremists. He added that he met the Justice minister to discuss intelligence, securityand preventing similar attacks to those which killed 17 people in Paris. Security experts sayIreland is being used as a hub by foreign jihadists travelling to Iraq and Syria to join ISIS. Thereis concern that Ireland could be used as a back door launchpad for attacks in Britain or onmainland Europe.9 January A letter-bomb was sent to Northern Ireland’s police headquarters. Army bomb expert defusedthe device. The alert was raised after a suspicious package in a brown padded bag with a whiteaddress label was received through the post to the Belfast headquarters. The police announced139

Global Security ReportLatviathat there is no further information that point to other similar packages in the postal system.Nevertheless, the authorities advise people to be vigilant.No major incidents to report.Lithuania16 January Lithuania begins the trial of two alleged spies with suspected links to Russia. The Vilnius DistrictCourt in the Lithuanian capital has heard the cases of the two alleged Belarusian spies, bothunder investigation for ties to Russian intelligence. The first alleged spy, 28-year-old Lithuanianmilitary medic Andrews Osurkovas, is suspected of collecting classified information aboutLithuanian armed forces, serving officers, military plans and buildings. Osurkovas is alsocharged with spying on the NATO mission in Lithuania as well as trying to turn other militarypersonnel into double agents. The second alleged spy, 57-year-old Romualdas Lipskis was anemployee of Lithuania’s air-surveillance and traffic monopoly Oro Navigacijos and he is alsocharged with espionage for Belarus. Lipskis could have spied on Lithuania’s defence forces byacquiring access to classified information through his work in Oro Navigacijos where he was anelectrical engineer. Lisps has allegedly been sending Lithuanian state secrets to Belarusianintelligence officer Sergey Kurlenko for more that 3 years, according to evidence compiled byLithuania’s state security service.15 January Lithuania has published a manual which advises its citizens how to survive a war on its soil.Lithuanian Defence Minister, Juozas Olekas, unveiled the 100-page public information pamphletat a press conference in Vilnius. The book ‘’How to act in extreme situations or instances of war’’aims to educated the country’s citizens on what to do in case of invasion. The manual instructsLithuanians how to act during the organization of civil resistance, but also how to act underbattlefield conditions, in addition to containing information on governmental changes followinga declaration of war. At the same time, NATO increases its presence in the Baltic region amidworries of ‘’Russian aggression’’.Norway28 January Norwegian authorities confirmed an ‘’atypical’’ case of mad cow disease but said that it posedno risk to public health. Unlike the classic form of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE),transmitted through the now banned practice of feeding cows with meat-based feed, isolatedcases of ‘’atypical’’ BSE can appear in old livestock. The Norwegian authorities announced thatthere is no risk in consuming beef or drinking milk. The case was the first to be detected inNorway but similar isolated cases have been reported in other countries including Switzerlandand Brazil in recent years.9 January According to the chief of the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) there is no informationlinking actions in France to Norway or Norwegian interests. She added that PST can not rule outa similar attack taking place on Norway in the future, especially from people coming from ahomegrown extremist environment in Norway. The Norwegian authorities claim that they havereasonably good control of those who have traveled to Syria and returned, but there is a bigpossibility that individuals that did not participate in conflict in Syria to organise and carry outan extremist attack.Sweden15 January The number of threats against Swedish Jews has doubled since the Paris attacks and the killingof four people in a kosher supermarket. Security has been increased around Jewish institutions,particularly in the capital Stockholm. Sweden has previously drawn international criticism fornot taking threats to its Jewish community seriously.140

Global Security ReportSweden’s military spokesman, Jesper Tengroth, confirmed that Sweden had carried out asecond search for a suspect Russian submarine just shortly after a high-profile submarine huntthat took place in late October. This second search occurred just a week after Sweden called offan unsuccessful search for a suspected Russian submarine that had infiltrated Swedish watersoff the Stockholm Archipelago. News of these submarine infiltrations follows a general Russiantrend of pushing he boundaries of its neighbors’ territorial sovereignty following the crisis inUkraine.14 January The far-right Sweden Democrats have called a vote of no-confidence against Social DemocratPrime Minister, Stefan Lofven. Sweden Democrat’s acting party leader Mattias Karlsson calledfor Lofven to be removed from his position during a party leaders’ debate at the SwedishParliament, after the prime minister called off snap elections due later this year. However, thecenter-right opposition said it would not vote against Lofven. The no-confidence motion againstthe Swedish Prime Minister was rejected by parliament on January 20, when all parties declinedto support the Democrat-led (SD) idea. The newly elected center-left government almostcollapsed on Dec.3 2014, after failing to reach an agreement with the center-right oppositionover 2015 budget.12 January Sweden and Finland will strengthen their defence cooperation to act as a deterrent as Russiaexerts its military power in the region. The cooperation will include more joint exercises,sharing of research and the use of each other’s naval and air-force facilities. The final plan willbe presented in February.9 January The fear of Muslims that leave in Sweden continues to intensify after the new attack against amosque in Sweden, in the city of Mariestad. This was the fourth attack against a mosque in thelast months. It is believed that the new attack was carried out by extremists, promoted by thegrowing tensions over the rise of an anti-immigration far right movement. The Swedish policehas launched an investigation into the incident. Some unidentified radicals reportedly broke thewindows of the mosque and threw pieces of pork inside. There was also offensive and racistwritings on the walls of the mosque.3 January According to the Swedish minister of culture and democracy, the Swedish government isplanning to develop a new national strategy to counter the growing prejudice against Islam inthe country. The government will promote this plan by collaborating with the local Muslimcommunities to find ways to fight Islamophobia by spreading awareness about Islam amongpeople.1 January The Swedish police have confirmed a third arson attack against a mosque in a week. Then newattack came amid growing tensions over the rise of a far right anti-immigration movement.According to the police representatives at the city of Uppsala, people saw a man throwingsomething burning at the building. Fortunately, the mosque did not catch fire and it was emptyof people at the time. The arsonist left behind a text on the door expressing his contempt forreligion. According to the police’s spokesman, the burning object was a Molotov cocktail. Thepolice responded to the series of attacks by stepping up the security around mosques. OnDecember 2 thousands of people across Sweden rallied against the recent arson attacks onmosques. The rallies took place in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo with more that 3,200people protesting against racism and Islamophobia.United Kingdom22 January The British Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, announced that there is ‘’a very significant risk’’from terror attack by extremists inspires by ISIS jihadists in UK. Speaking ahead of a counterterrorsummit in London, he warned against complacency in the fight to ‘’disrupt these plotsbefore they come to the stage of an attack’’.20 January A British jihadi who faked his own death in an effort to make it easier to return back to UKunnoticed, faces prison after pleading guilty to terrorism offences. Imran Khawaja was arrested141

Global Security Reportwhen he tried to return to UK last year after attending a terrorist training camp in Syria andbeing photographed holding a man’s severed head. He admitted preparation of terrorist acts,attending a terrorist training camp, receiving weapons training and possessing a firearm froterrorist use. It is believed that he was a senior figure in the Rabat Al Taweek terrorist group.His cousin was also arrested and pleaded guilty to assisting an offender and was granted bail. Athird man, 33-year-old Asim Ali, had also earlier pleaded guilty to providing Khawaja withmoney likely to be used for terrorism.19 January A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the UK and the Republic of Ireland has beensigned. The MoU was signed by the UK Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, and his Irishcounterpart, Simon Coveney. The MoU is going to ensure a greater defines collaboration in thefuture. The visit marked a historic moment for both countries, with the Michael Fallon being thefirst UK Defence Minister ever to make an official visit to Ireland.16 January After France, Belgium, Germany and Denmark multiplied the security measures around theJewish communities, United Kingdom decided to raise the threat level for the Jewishcommunities in the country. The government is considering putting in place further measuresthat will help protect the Jews against incidents of jihadist violence. The British government hasnot yet announced any specific measures.13 January The British security services are on high alert, expecting a beheading attack on the country afterjihadists were found discussing online plans to kill a British soldier. Counterterrorism agenciesare said to have detected ‘’chatter’’ relating to a repeat of Islamic State extremist group practiceof filming and posting execution videos. The British security services reacted to the potentialthreat after jihadist posted on Twitter a message claiming that the IS has killed a British soldierin UK inside his own home.12 January The British Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced that if he wins the next election he isgoing to ban the methods of communication that cannot be read by the security services even ifthey have a warrant. That measure could include popular chat and social apps that encrypt theirdata, such as WhatsApp and iMessage. This new measure is part of Cameron’s plans for newsurveillance powers announced in the wake of the shooting in the Charlie Hebdo offices in Paris.11 January After the attack at the offices of the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris, elite SpecialForces have joined counter-terror police and 1,900 Army personnel to launch the UnitedKingdom’s biggest security operation since the 2012 London Olympics. Most officers will bedressed in civilian clothes to blend with the crowd. Some Special Forces personnel will donpolice uniform to accompany police officers who visit the homes of ‘’persons of interests’’according to the reports provided by MI5.8 January The United Kingdom has increased security at the British-French border after the Paris-basedCharlie Hebdo magazine attack. According to Theresa May, UK Home Secretary, this is aprecautionary step. There is going to be additional security checks at UK ports and strongersecurity presence at Calais. This will also include more searched of vehicles and freight at ferryports. She added that the threat level in UK remains at ‘’severe’’ urging the public to stay vigilantas a terrorist attack is “highly likely”.7 January The British police announced that they had arrested a man on suspicion of the commission,preparation or instigation of acts of terrorism. The 32-year-old was detained in Stratford, eastLondon, on suspicion of possession of an offensive weapon, the police announced. He was takento a police station where he remains in custody. A police statement announced that the policeofficers searched the suspect’s house in east London as part of the investigation. No furtherdetails have been released regarding the case.142

Global Security ReportSouthern EuropeAlbania19 January Between 17 and 19 January, three car bombs were detonated on consecutive days in the city ofDurres. An alleged crime boss, an Albanian emigrant, and a government official were targetedin the bomb attacks. The third bomb hit the car of the government official, Arben Sula, who isthe director of a prison near Tirana. Only minor damage and injuries occurred in the bombattacks. The attacks are a worrying concern for Albanian authorities, as gang warfare continuesto rise following over a dozen bomb attacks in the coastal towns of Durres and Vlora last year.8 January Following a recent spate of shooting incidents in Albania, the Albanian government parties areonce again feuding over allegations that the center-left government is protecting the country’scriminal gangs. The political row concerns two deadly shoot-outs in the capital, Tirana, in whichone man was killed and four others, including a police officer, were injured. Following this, twoMPs claimed that the alleged gangster involved in the incidents, Emiljano Shullazi, was workingto support the Democratic Party’s electoral campaign. This is often a reoccurring theme inAlbanian politics, whereby political officials are often accused of working with criminal gangsduring elections, in order to obtain their political goals.Kosovo28 January Following violent clashes between protesters and police in the streets of Pristina, Kosovo’sgovernment, led by freshly elected Isa Mustafa, has accused opposition leaders of trying to seizepower using violence. The government has condemned the use of the protesters and studentsat the protest for the organizers’ political ends. The opposition party, Vetevendosje, has blamedthe police for the violence and vowed the protests will continue until Jablanovic is dismissedfrom office. The OSCE Mission in Kosovo also expressed concern about the unrest following thelargest protests in Kosovo since the country’s declaration of independence in 2008.27 January Protests in Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, have once again erupted into violent clashes betweenprotesters and police. Protesters took to Mother Teresa Street, near the government building,to rally for the nationalization of the Trepca mining complex and the dismissal of ministerJablanovic, an ethinc-serb member of Isa Mustafa’s government, following his ethnicallycharged comments at the beginning of the month. The protest, organized by the nationalistVetevendosje party and backed by other opposition parties, resulted in police officers firingrounds of tear gas and deploying water cannons at protesters as they threw stones, bricks,Molotov cocktails, and damaged property during the six hours of protest. Police officersstruggled to contain the crowd of thousands of protesters as they attempted to reach thegovernment building after they had broke through a police barricade. Protesters carriedAlbanian flags chanting “out with Jablanovic” and “Down with the government”. According toKosovo Police and Pristina’s main hospital, 120 people were arrested, with 107 policemen and63 protesters being injured amid violent scenes in the newly independent state.26 January Following protests against the Kosovo Serb minister, Aleksandar Jablanovic, whose commentsat the beginning of the month reignited ethnic tension in the country and resulted in a majorprotest, the government has rejected the opposition’s ultimatum to dismiss the minister. Agovernment spokesperson stated that the authorities would not give into the opposition’sdemands. The opposition party and nationalist movement, Vetvendosje, has responded to thisstatement by announcing that protests will continue for the dismissal of the minister and thedemand for state ownership of the Trepca mining complex.Five Kosovo nationals have been indicted on terrorism charges for fighting in Syria, attemptingto buy assault rifles, and assaulting two Christian missionaries from the United States in 2013.This indictment coincides with the parliamentary vote to introduce prison sentences for thosefound to be participating in terrorist activities. This comes as Kosovo, a predominantly Muslimcountry, attempts to combat the rise in terrorist activity by Kosovo nationals.143

Global Security Report24 January Protests over the Trepca mining complex and the demand for the dismissal of a Kosovo Serbminister following his controversial and ethnically-charged comments, have again resulted in aviolent demonstration in Kosovo. Thousands of protesters clashed with police as they rallied inPristina, in an attempt to attack the government building. Protesters threw stones at police andstarted a fire on the capital’s famous Mother Teresa Street. Protesters also attacked journalistswho were attempting to report the violent clash. Protesters who attacked the journalists beatthem with sticks and stones and tried to steal their equipment. The journalists who wereattacked were of both Albanian and Serbian ethnicity. They were reporting for Kosovo’s publictelevision channel RTK and Serbian public broadcaster RTS. Kosovo’s and Serbia’s JournalistsAssociations have since condemned the attacks. The protest, the largest since Kosovo’sdeclaration of independence in 2008, was an accumulation of the political and civil unrest thathas spread through the state since the beginning of the month.23 January The Assembly of Kosovo has adopted a law to ban the participation of Kosovo nationals in armedconflicts. There is currently a great concern for the recruitment of Kosovo nationals for terroristactivities, as Kosovo has a high number of foreign fighters, especially in Syria. The adopted lawis therefore an attempt to stop young people from being recruited in the Middle East. The lawbans the participation of Kosovo nationals in armed conflicts abroad. The violation of this lawwill result in imprisonment for up to 15 years.20 January The government’s announcement yesterday that it will delay its decision on the final fate of thecountry’s Trepca Mining complex, an issue of contestation between Serbia and Kosovo who bothlay claim to its ownership, has today resulted in mass protests across Kosovo. A student-ledprotest took place in the capital, Pristina, whilst other protests took place in Lipljan and Ferizaj,with miners protesting in Mitrovica. Once Kosovo's most profitable industrial complex, themines at Trepca are functioning at diminished capacity and are seen as a great importance toKosovo’s economic future.19 January Minister Aleksandar Jablanovic, accused of inciting inter-ethnic hatred by insulting Albanianswho blockaded Serb pilgrims at Orthodox Christmas, has made a formal apology followingviolent protests in reaction to his statement, in which he called the Albanians involved in theJanuary 6 clash “savages”. Jablanovic has stated that he did not want his words to cause unrest,he stressed he wanted to publicly apologized to all of the mothers (who lost loved ones in the1999 conflict), who were affected by his statement. However, in spite of his apology, studentsfrom the University of Pristina are organizing a major protest in the coming week to call onPrime Minister Isa Mustafa to dismiss Jablanovic from the government.16 January A major protest took place in Pristina today. Protesters demanded the resignation of ministerthe Aleksandar Jablanovic. The protest soon turned into a clash between protesters andpolicemen, as they angrily rallied outside the Returns and Communities office in the capital. Itis estimated that eight policemen and 31 protesters were injured in the clash and 22 arrested.According to Kosovo police, vehicles and property were also damaged. The protest wasorganized by the nationalist Vetevendosje Movement party, in response to Jablanovic’sdescription of Albanian protesters, who he described as “savages”, after they blocked the roadto Serb pilgrims visiting a church in Kosovo at Orthodox Christmas on January 6.14 January Kosovo’s National Council for European Integration has issued a warning detailing the steep risein illegal migration of Kosovo citizens to the EU last year. It is reported that around 20,000Kosovo nationals left Kosovo in 2014, in the aim of illegally reaching the European Union. Mostof which was routed across the Serbian-Hungarian border, organized by buses to Subotica,Serbia.13 January Following the outbreak of violence in Gjakova last week, Kosovo minister Aleksandar Jablanovicdescribed the Albanian protesters who rallied against Serb pilgrims at Orthodox Christmas onJanuary 6 as “savages”. Such a statement has resulted in serious backlash against the minister,whose dismissal is now being called for by multiple channels in Kosovo’s political society. The144

Global Security Reportcontroversial statement by minister Jablanovic about the events in the town of Gjavoka, whichwas the scene for great loss for many Albanians during the 1999 conflict, has been perceived asan ethnic hate speech, one which opens the wounds of the past and perpetuates the inter-ethnichatred that remains rife in the country.6 January Kosovo has today seen another ramification of its on-going ethnic division in the newly formedstate, as Monasteries and Orthodox Churches in Kosovo became the hub for ethnic tension andprotest during the Serbian Orthodox Christmas. The town of Gjakova was the scene for such aprotest, as around 100 Albanian protesters rallied against Serbian pilgrims who were travelingfrom Belgrade, Serbia, to visit an Orthodox Church in Gjakova. Kosovo police subsequentlyarrested two members of the nationalist Vetevendosje Movement opposition party for throwingice at the bus carrying the pilgrims, who decided to call off their visit after the attack. Gjakovawas the scene of heavy fighting in Kosovo’s 1999 conflict, following the heavy bloodshed ofcivilians and military there, the once ethnically mixed town is now a majority ethnic Albanian,after the Serbs were expelled at the end of the war.Bosnia and Herzegovina27 January A Bosnian Islamist, arrested in Croatia has been handed to Austrian authorities. The Bosniancitizen was arrested in December 2014 after being detained on the Bosnian-Croatia borderfollowing an alert on Interpol’s Red List. The accused is believed to be part of an Austrian-basedIslamic jihadist network, which has been recruiting from the Balkans and organizing theirtransfer to fight in Iraq and Syria. After spending a month in prison in the Croatian town ofPozega, he has now been extradited to Austria under secret conditions.Meanwhile, another terrorist suspect, Husein Bosnic, arrested last month, has begun his trial inSarajevo, where he has pleaded not guilty to terrorist charges of encouraging terrorist activityand recruiting terrorists to fight in Syria and Iraq. Last year Bosnia adopted legislation forsentences of up to 10 years in prison for Jihadis, recruiters, and those who preach Islamicradicalism. There are currently heightened concerns over Bosnian Islamic radicals’participation in terrorist activities since the terrorist attack in Paris earlier this month.15 January Political infighting as well as procedural problems have continued to delay the formation of aFederation entity government in Bosnia. Following the October 2014 elections, the formation ofnew governments across Bosnia’s numerous administrative levels remains subject to extensivedelays. According to the federation entity constitution, the assembly must now proceed tonominate an entity president as well as two vice presidents who then appoint the premierdesignate.Following this political stagnation, the EU delegation in Bosnia has placed greatimportance on the local politicians capability to become more involved and speed up the processof forming new governments at state and entity level.5 January Control of Bosnia’s skies has once again come under contestation as the country continues to beunable to maintain control of its air space. Although Bosnia and Herzegovina announced inNovember last year that it would take control over its own airspace, the European Agency forthe Safety of Air Navigation, EUROCONTROL, has said that Sarajevo is still not ready to take overthe daunting task. Currently, Serbia and Montenegro retain control of Bosnian skies, both ofwhich control and monitor most of Bosnian airspace following a judgment in Brussels that thecountry is still not capable. The Belgrade based, SMATSA, joint organization between Serbia andMontenegro will continue to monitor and control most of Bosnia’s airspace whilst collecting allrevenues from civil flights over the county and its area of jurisdiction.145

Global Security ReportCroatia11 January Following postponed elections, opposition challenger, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic has beenelected as Croatia's first female president. The political conservative Grabar-Kitarovic, an exforeignminister and former NATO official, narrowly won the election with 50.4 percent of thevote. As her rival and center-left incumbent, Ivo Josipovic, obtained only 49.6 percent of the vote.Grabar-Kitarovic, a candidate of Croatia’s main opposition HDZ party, is the first female head ofstate democratically elected in the traditionally patriarchal Balkans since Kosovo’s election ofAtifete Jahjaga by parliament in 2011.Greece26 January The anti-austerity Syriza party has won Greece’s general election and the head of the leftwingSyriza party, Alexis Tsipras, has been sworn in as prime minister. Tsipras is now set to lead ananti-austerity coalition government backed by a strong democratic mandate. Syriza’s win at theelection polls raises concerns for Greece’s fiscal position in the European Union as Tsipras hasopenly stated his wishes to renegotiate Greece’s debt. Such a victory for Syriza also raisespolitical concerns across Europe as it could potentially lead the way for other radical partiesopposed to austerity to break through in Europe, such as Spain’s Podemos.20 January Greece’s failure last month to elect a new president will soon be resolved. However, thesituation of political ambiguity and a lack of government have placed Greece in an economicallyprecarious position. The vote between Antonis Samaras’ conservative New Democracy Partyand Alexis Tsipras’ leftwing Syriza party will have heavy consequences for the future of thecountry and indeed, Greece’s economic stability. With a few days to go before the crucialelections, the two main parties have continued to battle one another ahead of a crucial EuropeanCentral Bank meeting where a bond-buying program and emergency liquidity assistance forbanks are to be discussed.18 January Following yesterday’s arrest of several people in Greece, in connection with a suspectedterrorist plot, Belgium has since requested that Greece extradite one of the suspects arrested.According to Greek police, the suspect due to be extradited had previously served prison timein Greece for a robbery conviction. According to a statement released by Belgium’s federalprosecutor's office, although no connection between those detained and the alleged plot hasbeen found, "further analysis" of the elements in the Belgian investigation has prompted thelatest request to Athens for the extradition of one suspect.17 January Greek police have taken several people into custody over alleged links to a suspected terror plotin Belgium. One of the men is alleged to have been in contact with a cell in Verviers, Belgium,where a shootout with police left two suspects dead on Thursday.Italy29 January Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, proposed a senior judge to be Italy’s next president, in amove which may strain his government’s alliance on reforms with opposition rival SilvioBerlusconi. Sergio Mattarella is a constitutional court judge and a former defence minister.Berlusconi announced that he would not back Mattarella and accused Renzi of breaking theirpact on reforms by not proposing a jointly agreed candidate. A candidate needs a two-thirdsmajority to win, which looks unlikely to happen now, but from the fourth round only a simplemajority is required. On January 31, Mattarella was elected as the new Italian President whenhe amassed 505 votes, a simple majority.28 January Italian police arrested more than 160 alleged members of a mafia group and seized millions ofdollars in what was considered a major crackdown on organised crime. Italy’s anti-mafia chief146

Global Security Reportprosecutor, Franco Roberti, announced that the operation was a ‘’historic and unprecedented’’blow for the group suspected for much of Europe’s cocaine trade. Ndrangheta, is an organisedcrime clan from Clabria in southern Italy.20 January Rome’s mayor announced that he needs 500 extra police officers and dozens of soldiers havebeen requested to help strengthen security at sites in the Italian capital that could be targets forterror attacks. Despite the need for extra security personnel, he added that currently there areno threats made of terrorist attacks in Rome. Due to the heightened alert in Italy, governmentoffices, embassies, tourist attractions aw well as the Vatican are among the sites deemed byauthorities to be ‘’sensitive’’ and needing enhanced security.18 January According to the Italian Interior Minister, Angelino Alfano, Italian authorities have expelled ninesuspected Islamist militants so far this year as part of heightened security alert throughoutEurope and could make further expulsions. Five Tunisians, one Turk, one Egyptian, oneMoroccan and one Pakistani have been expelled. According to Alfano, two of them had beenpreparing to travel to Syria to fight with Islamist militant groups. He added that the Italiansecurity services have been stepping up cooperation with other European countries. Italianmedia reported that around 100 suspected Islamist militants are under surveillance in Italy, butAlfano commented that the actual number of cases is higher.14 January The passengers of a Niki flight to Vienna from Fiumicino airport in Rome have beendisembarked after a man of Slovenian nationality told the pilot he had a bomb in his luggage.Over 780 passengers were evacuated and the plane was isolated for security checks whichfound no explosive devices on board. The suspect was taken by police for questioning and RomeFiumicino was temporarily locked down.13 January Giorgio Napolitano is set to resign as Italy’s president, setting the stage for a high-stakes roundof negotiations among the country’s political parties to elect his replacement that will mark akey test for the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi. Napolitano had agreed to serve a secondseven-year term as president starting in 2013, but always signaled his intention to leave earlygiven his advanced age, and chose the end of Italy’s six-month rotating presidency of the EU tomake the move.10 January The mayor of the Italian city Padua said that no more permits will be granted for theconstruction of mosques in the wake of the massacre at the Charlie Hebdo offices by allegedIslamist terrorists. He announced that the city council will not grant any more public space forthe construction of mosques and Islamic places of worship, adding that controls on privatespaces used for worship will also be tightened. In a sign of solidarity with the victims, the Frenchflag was hung outside the northern Italian city’s town.9 January Security has been increased at the Italian border with France after the attack at the CharlieHebdo offices. Checks on every vehicle passing through the Frejus tunnel at Bardonecchia, inthe northern region of Piedmont, have been tightened.8 January The Italian Interior Minister Angelino Alfano announced that after the attack on the Frenchsatirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo the Italian government decided to increase the security at‘’sensitive targets’’. He underlined that there is no concrete threats about any possible attacksin Italy, but these measures are precautionary.2 January The Italian authorities battled rough seas to rescue nearly 500 migrants stranded on the cargoship Ezadeen. The ship was sailing with a Sierra Leone flag. When the ship was 40 miles offItaly’s south-eastern tip the migrants aboard started calling for help, stating that the ship’s crewhad abandoned them. Earlier in the week, another similar incident involving 700 migrants wasreported. They had to be rescued by the ship Blue Sky M. It is believed that in this case also thesmugglers abandoned the ship leaving the migrants to fend of themselves. Most of those aboardwere Syrians and Kurds.147

Global Security Report1 January A video message emerged on Youtube with two young Italian women begging for their lives andwarning that they are in danger of being executed. The two young women were working as aidvolunteers in Syria, and were kidnapped near Aleppo last July. It is believed that their captorsare from the terror group Jabhat al-Nusra, a branch of al-Qaeda. The Italian authorities believethat the video is genuine, even though they have not officially confirmed it yet.Macedonia25 January The former director of the Macedonian Intelligence Agency, Zoran Verushevski, has beenarrested for possession of child pornography and the possession of illegal weapons. Macedonianpolice are currently holding the security and counter-intelligence expert in custody.Verushevski has held a number of high profile positions over time, such as the deputy ministerand chief of cabinet in the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He is the second director of Macedonianintelligence agency to be arrested. Another Macedonian Intelligence expert, SlobodanBogoevski, was previously sentenced to two years in prison on criminal financial activity.20 January Over a thousand protesters, comprised of journalists and supporters, marched on the capitalSkopje today. The protesters demanded the release of the reporter, Tomislav Kezarovski, whosejail term was recently upheld by the Court of Appeal in Skopje. Kezarovski was jailed forrevealing the identity of a protected witness in a murder case, in an article published in May2008. The protesters insist that Kezarovski is innocent and that his prison sentence is a blow tofreedom of speech. The protest, organized by the "Board for Kezarovski's support" which unitesthe Association of Journalists of Macedonia (AJM) and the Independent Journalists’ Trade Union(SSNM), began in front of Skopje’s Court of Appeals building before moving to the front ofMacedonia’s government building. The decision by the Court of Appeal in Skopje has beencondemned by Macedonian and international journalist organizations, as well as theOrganization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).Montenegro28 January The reignited border dispute between Bosnia and Montenegro remains ongoing. Furthermore,the Montenegrin government has now announced that Montenegro will reject the idea ofinternational arbitration of the disputed Sutorina region.22 January An ongoing border dispute between Montenegro and Bosnia has been revived in recent monthsafter Bosnian intellectuals and NGOs presented documentation, which they allege, proves theMontenegrin area of Sutorina had belonged to Bosnia until WWII. The 75 square kilometer areaof Sutorina is comprised of five villages and the Sutorina River. In response to the continuingdispute, opposition officials have now called upon the government to deal more toughly withBosnia’s claim to Montenegrin land. Subsequently, in response to the dispute MontenegrinPresident Filip Vujanovic has refused to sign the appointment of a new ambassador to Sarajevo.Furthermore, Vujanovic has reminded officials and media on both sides that Bosnia recognizedMontenegro’s independence and its borders in 2006.19 January Montenegro is still failing to protect its airspace according to the recent report by The Centrefor Democratic Transition. Montenegro remains highly reliant upon assistance from NATOcountries to protect its airspace. Until 2006 the Army of Serbia and Montenegro were in chargeof the protection of Montenegrins airspace. However, after gaining independence, theMontenegrin government did not make any plans to modernize its air force. Nine years after itsindependence the country continues to lack an adequate air force or enough capacity to controlits skies, as reported the Centre for Democratic Transition. Even though airspace protection isincluded in Montenegro’s NATO integration process.16 January Today, Serbs and Montenegrins who fled the Kosovo conflict in 1999 rallied in the Montenegrincapital of Podogrica against the visiting foreign Minister of Kosovo, Hashim Thaçi. Protestersrallied as an expression of anger against his role in the 1999 Kosovo conflict. Several hundredpeople protested amidst the presence of riot police, as the minister held talks with Montenegrinofficials. Protesters called Thaçi a war criminal and clashed with the police as they attempted to148

Global Security Reportbreach the police cordon and gain entry to the residence where talks were being held. Theprotest was organized by the Association of the Displaced from Kosovo, which has accused thepolitical leader of the wartime Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), of being responsible for theexpulsion of thousands of Serbs from the former Yugoslav Kosovo.12 January Today the Montenegrin parliament’s Committee for Security and Defense has called for a morecomprehensive cooperation between security agencies in the region in the fight against Islamicradicalism. Following the terrorist attack on the French magazine, Charlie Hebdo, Montenegrinsecurity forces are now working towards more vigilant monitoring of Islamic extremists.2 January In an effort to clear remaining mines in its waters, Montenegro has deployed police divers andde-miners to tackle more than 600 unexploded anti-ship mines, bombs and other explosivedevices. The underwater mines, left over from WWI and WWII have been located andneutralized off the shore of the resort towns of Kotor and Tivat. The unexploded mines presenta great threat to both tourism and fishing in the country. The great undertaking has beenhappening for years, as the country works to detect and rehabilitate the areas in which wartimeordnance is still present. The effort will be ongoing as tons of dangerous mines are yet to bediscovered and destroyed.Portugal8 January Portugal’s justice minister, Paula Teixeira da Cruz, in an effort to reassure Portuguese citizensabout possible terrorist attacks that the legislation just approved by the government is essentialfor an ‘’intransigent’’ and ‘’reinforced’’ fight against international crime, including terrorism andsex trade. She added that the situation in Portugal is in ‘’constant monitoring’’ for a possibleattack. The country’s strategy against terrorism is constantly being updated, and to the presentthere is no information that points to a particular concern about security in the country. One ofthe core parts of the new legislation has to do with criminal records and the exchange ofinformation between EU members. Another alteration relates to the European arrest warrantand measures to restrict the movements of suspects, as part of an EU decision. It allows for aperson resident in one member state who is a suspect in a criminal case in another to besupervised by the authorities where they live, while awaiting trial.SerbiaSloveniaNo major incidents to report13 January According to the Czech police, an Italian man has been arrested in Slovenia on suspicion ofsending enveloped laced with poison to Czech officials. The government announced that thepoisoned letters were intercepted before reaching the intended recipients and no one was hurt.The envelopes were sent by mail from Sweden and Slovenia. The police announced that there isno information that would link the man with any threat groups.Spain31 January Tens of thousands marched in Madrid in a show of support for fledging leftist anti-austerityparty Podemos, whose surging popularity has drawn comparisons with the Syria party that justtook power in Greece. Crowds chanted ‘’Yes we can’’ and ‘’Tic tac, tic tac’’, suggesting the clockwas ticking for the political elite. Podiums was formed just a year ago but produced a majorshock by winning five seats in elections for the European Parliament in May and opinion pollssuggest the party could be a major force in local, regional and national elections this year.27 January A Greek F-16 fighter jet crashed during an elite NATO pilot training program in a base in Spain.Spanish investigators are trying to detect what caused the jet to lose power during takeoff andcrash into five parked planes at the Los Llanos air base in southeastern Spain, triggering a seriesof explosions and a raging fire. Two pilots aboard the Greek F-16 were killed along with nine149

Global Security ReportFrench airforce menders on the ground. Twenty French and Italian citizens were injured andfour remained hospitalised in Madrid undergoing treatment for severe burns.25 January Thousands of protesters are marching in Spanish cities to express their opposition to a law thatwas approved by the parliament last month and will set hefty fines for offences likedemonstrating outside parliament buildings or strategic installations. The law is expected tobecome official in February it succeeds passing by the government-controlled Senate. Protesterswith tape over their mouths and carrying banners calling the measures a ‘’gagging law’’ gatherednear Spain’s parliament under heavy police surveillance. The bill is heavily opposed by theopposition parties and human rights groups.11 January According to the Spanish Interior Minister, Spain wants to see changes made to the treatygoverning the visa-free Schengen area, which would allow Spain to introduce border controlsto stem the tide of Islamic militants returning from the Middle East. He added that the existingmobility in the European Union is facilitating the movements of jihadists to any country. He alsocalled for the establishment of a Europe-wide passenger name record data base, which wouldaid in sharing passenger information between member states.8 January After the armed attack on French magazine Charlie Hebdo, the Spanish authorities decided toincrease the security around key infrastructure. According to the Spanish Interior Minister,Jorge Fernandez Diaz, these measures are precautionary and they are put in place to prevent anarmed attack like the one that took place in Paris. Diaz added that Spain gas raised its securitylevel to 3 from 2 on a scale where four marks the maximum threat.Western EuropeAustria30 January Thousands of protesters amassed outside a palace where a ball was taking place demanding anend to the black-tie event which they say draws the far-right fringe from across Europe. Policeestimated the number of protesters at about 5,000 people. Isolated scuffles broke out withhelmeted officers in riot gear, and riot dogs were used in at least one instance to dispersedemonstrators. One officer was wounded by fireworks and at least one protester was alsoinjured. The police arrested 38 demonstrators.22 January A 30-year-old Chechen who Austrian authorities accuse of fighting with Islamic State jihadistsin Syria in 2013 and sending them money pleaded not guilty when the country’s first such trialopened in Austria. According to the Austrian prosecutors, Magomed Z., a Russian national,trained with IS in Syria between July and December 2013, fighting with the group, adopting its‘’nationality’’ and sending it $800. The defendant claimed that he had gone to Syria only to helprefugees and search for the son of a relative. Magomed Z. faces up to 10 years in jail if convictedof joining a terrorist organization.21 January Austrian government announced a package of various measures intended to help the authoritiesin the fight against possible terrorist attacks. The largest part consisting of 126 million euros,will go into hiring new personnel with special skills, including specialists in cyber security, crimefighting and forensics. Technology investment is also planned, with 34 million euros targetingspecial IT technology upgrades, such as the Schengen Information System database andevidence collection software.16 January Austrian police have detained a 14-year-old boy for the second time on suspicion of being partof a terrorist group, planning to travel to Syria and researching how to build bombs. The boyfrom Lower Austria province was first detained in October but released from investigativecustody after a few days on condition he remain contact with the Austrian authorities. His arrestwarrant was renewed, when his mother reported him missing this week. The boy, whoauthorities announced is a Turkish national, was captured in Vienna alongside a 12-year-old150

Global Security Reportwho will be handed over to his parents. According to the authorities the boy has expressedsympathy with Islamic State militants fighting in Syria and Iraq and has researched on theinternet how to build bombs.14 January An anonymous phone call to Vienna police warned that there was a bomb hidden in 03’s officesin Dobling. Bomb specialists searched the entire building with sniffer dogs for an hour but foundnothing. The phone call was made from a phone box and police are now investigating who madethe call. A Austrian police and security services are on high alert after the series of deadly attacksin France. Several newspaper offices and radio stations now have police protection.13 January Two Austrian teenage girls that were intercepted on their way to Syria to marry fighters of theinsurgent group Islamic State were allowed to walk free from custody, when the Austrian judgeissued a preliminary ruling that the girls had not committed any crime. Prosecutors had askeda Salzburg court to place the two teenage girls, aged 16 and 17, in investigative custody pendingan investigation into whether they were members of a terrorist organization. The girls werepicked up in Romania by authorities while they were on a train making their way to Syria.12 January After the attack against the French satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, Austria plans to boost thesecurity. The Interior Minister, Johanna Mikl-Leitner announced that a group of security expertsare working ‘’under pressure’’ to draft the new security measures. She added that Austria’ssecurity forces will need heavily armored vehicles and larger helicopters to enable a quickdeployment of Special Forces, should Austria experience a similar situation.Belgium30 January Belgian police detained four people after a series of raids across the country to dismantle agroup suspected of recruiting jihadist fighters for Syria. The raids were not linked to anoperation earlier this month that foiled a plan to attack Belgian police nor to recent deadlymilitant attacks in Paris. Police found no weapons or explosives during the 22 raids, most ofthem in the east of Belgium, near to the Dutch border. The four detained suspects will be broughtbefore a judge to determine whether they should still be held.29 January Belgian authorities charged an Algerian man with terrorism offences after he was extraditedfrom Greece over a plot to kill police. The man, identified in media reports as Omar Damasch,33-years-old, was arrested in Athens on January 17 after a huge terror alert in Belgium.According to the federal prosecutor’s spokesman, he is put in preventive custody by theinvestigating judge and charged with participation in the activities of a terrorist group.27 January Belgian security forces arrested three suspected Islamist militants in new counter-terror raidsafter foiling a major plot to attack police earlier this month. The three arrests were made in thewestern town of Harelbeke, close to the French border. Belgium has been on high alert after twosuspected militants were shot dead on January 15 in a series of anti-terror raids carried out inthe wake of the Paris terror attacks. The Belgian authorities have not yet release anyinformation regarding the names and the possible ties to jihadi groups of the two men.23 January According to the prosecutors, Belgian police are searching for a possible accomplice of thegunman who killed four people in an attack on the Jewish museum in Brussels in May. Frenchnational Mehdi Nemmouche, in custody in Belgium, is suspected of having carried out the attackafter spending most of 2013 fighting in Syria with Islamist rebels. Authorities are now lookingfor a man who was seen walking beside Nemmouche near Brussels North railway station fourdays after the attack.19 January Belgian officials have confirmed that a suspect they want extradited from Greece may be one ofthe ringleaders behind the alleged plot to attack police in the European country. As Belgian closein on the leaders of the terror cell busted up, they have put their military on a war footing.Hundreds of troops have begun providing high-profile protection at cites considered potentialterror targets, such as the U.S. Embassy and Jewish neighborhoods. The police has also151

Global Security Reportannounced the name of a suspect that was part of the terror plot to kill police. Belgian mediahave identified the suspect as Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a 27-year-old Belgian citizen of Moroccandescent. He is well known to security forces, and last year he appeared in an amateur videopurportedly for ISIS.17 January Belgium is deploying hundreds of troops to guard possible terrorism targets as the head ofEuropol has warned further attacks could not be ruled out. Up to 300 Belgian military will bestationed at locations such as Jewish sites and, US and Israeli embassies in Brussels and NATOand EU institutions. Troops will reinforce police at least until January 22 when the authoritieswill review the national threat level, that currently is set at 3 on a scale of 4.16 January Jewish schools in Belgium and Amsterdam were temporally shuttered following a police raidon suspected terrorists. In Antwerp and Brussels, major Jewish schools suspended activities inresponse to the raising of Belgium’s security alert to Level 3.15 January Belgian security forces killed two terror suspects with links to Syria in a shootout in the easterncity of Verviers and arrested another, foiling a major and imminent attack against policebuildings. According to the Belgian federal magistrate, Eric Van der Sypt, there is no link at thisstage between the Paris attacks and the Belgian operation. No police were wounded or killed inthe firefight, which occurred at the height of rush hour in a crowded neighbourhood. Themagistrate added that more anti-terrorist raids are underway in the Brussels region. Belgium’sterror alert is raised to its second-highest level. Another 13 people were detained in Belgium isa separate anti-terror sweep following the firefight in Verviers.11 January Belgian Soir newspaper’s office was evacuated after receiving an anonymous bomb threat. Sirwas among the newspapers that reprinted cartoons created by the French Charlie Hebdomagazine. Belgium’s Minister of Justice, Koen Geens, announced that the Belgian securityservices have averted several terrorist attacks. Despite the averted attacks, he announced thatthe country will not heighten its threat level yet.10 January Belgium has heightened the level of security alert in parts of Brussels and Antwerp. The officeof the Belgian Prime Minister said that security of alert was upgraded from level 2 to level 3 toprotect French interests amid heightened security alert in France. In a statement the office saidthat more policemen had been deployed in certain locations to deal with any potentialemergency.France29 January An eight-year-old boy in France was questioned by police for half an hour after he allegedlymade comments in school in praise of terrorists. The child triggered concern when he refusedto take part in a minute’s silence at his school in the southern city of Nice after the Charlie Hebdoattack. The boy also expressed ‘’solidarity’’ with the gunmen.27 January Police authorities in France and Belgium arrested eight suspected militant Islamists in dawnraids. According to the French Interior Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, a particularly dangerousand organised network has been broken up after these arrests. Since the Paris attacks onJanuary 7-9, the French government has deployed thousand soldiers and extra police. Elitepolice troops, many of them hooded and heavily armed arrested five people aged 26 to 44 in theraid in Lunel, a small town near France’s Mediterranean coast. Two of the arrested had returnedfrom Syria. In Belgium three men were arrested in Kortrijk, a town some 10 km from the Frenchborder.21 January The French government announced a series of new measures to fight homegrown terrorism.The new measures will provide the police with better equipment and entails the hiring of moreintelligence agents. Prime Minister Manuel Valls laid out the counterterrorism initiatives just asthe Paris prosecutor announced preliminary charges against four men for allegedly providinglogistical support to one of the attackers behind the three-day spree of violence in Paris that152

Global Security Reportresulted in the death of 17 people before the three gunmen were shot dead by the French police.France plans to spend 425 million euros over the next three years for the new measures.20 January Human Rights Watch accused the French police that abused African migrants that camped inthe northern French port of Calais in hopes of eventually reaching Britain. According to HRWthey were subjected to police beatings and harassment. The group called on the Frenchgovernment to open an investigation into what it called ‘’routine ill-treatment’’ by policetowards the approximately 2,400 migrants and asylum seekers living in the open air or in makeshifttents near the port.Lawmakers in France want to create military zones around its 58 atomic reactors to boostsecurity after this month’s series of terror attacks in Paris and almost two dozen mystery droneflights over nuclear plants that have baffled authorities. The proposals will clarify atomic energysites as ‘’highly sensitive military zones’’ under the control of the Ministry Of Defence. Francehas been plagued by more than 20 illegal drone flights over its nuclear plants since September.Police and government have said they do not know who is responsible for the flights and antinuclearcampaigners from Greenpeace have denied any involvement.Five Russians have been arrested in Southern France, including one with a cache of explosives.Beziers' Mayor, Robert Menard, confirmed the arrests and he added that the five men were ofChechen origin. The local prosecutor, Yvon Calvet, reported that despite the explosives’ cachethat was found it is not clear whether a terror attack was planned.18 January French authorities released three women who were arrested last week along with nine othersin counter-terrorism raids linked to the series of deadly attacks in Paris. According to the ParisProsecutor’s office, the eight men and one woman still in custody will have their detentionsprolonged for another two days so they can be questioned over ties to the three terrorists whokilled 17 people in a three-day spree that put France on high alert.16 January French police arrested 12 people suspected of helping militant Islamist gunmen in the series ofkillings in Paris. The arrests came after Belgian police killed two men and detained 13 suspectsin raids on an Islamist group prosecutors said was about to attack police there. No link betweenany of them and the Paris attacks has been confirmed. Moreover, Paris’s Gare de lest trainstation was evacuated for about an hour during the morning rush according to the authorities,without giving further details about what caused the alert.French police informed that an armed man was keeping two hostages in a post office outsideParis. No immediate links with deadly attack on Charlie Hebdo has been established. Thegunman has been arrested and hostages have been freed. Terror links to this incident are yet tobe confirmed by the French police.12 January France is mobilizing 10,000 troops to boost security after the deadly terrorist attacks that tookplace in France, and will send thousands of police to protect Jewish schools. Defence MinisterJean-Yves Le Drian said troops will be in place immediately in sensitive areas. It is the first timetroops have been deployed within France on such a scale. He added that the governmentconsiders the deployment necessary because ‘’threats remain present’’.11 January More than a million people joined over 40 presidents and prime ministers on the streets of Parisin the most striking show of solidarity in the West against the threat of Islamic extremism sincethe 9/11 attacks. Jews, Muslims, Christians, atheists and people of all races, ages and politicalparties swarmed central Paris calling for peace and an end to violent extremism. The InteriorMinistry described the demonstration as the largest in modern French history, with as many as1.6 million people participating. At various times, those in attendance burst into spontaneousapplause and occasionally into ‘’La Marseillaise’’, the national anthem.10 January French law enforcement officers have been ordered to erase their social media presence and tocarry their weapons at all times because over the last 24 hours terror sleeper cells has been153

Global Security Reportactivated in France. Aimed Coulibaly, a suspect killed after he held hostages at a koshersupermarket in Paris, had made several phone calls about targeting police officers in France.The French police announced that it will take all the necessary precautionary measures to avoidthe targeting of police officers.The French police announced that is preparing for the arrival of world leaders planning toparticipate in a anti-terrorism march in Paris. French Interior Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, hasannounced that he plans to host a meeting of senior security officials, including U.S. AttorneyGeneral Eric Holder, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, andSpanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The rally is planned to be held in central Paris in supportof the victims and to protest against terrorism. Also, the leaders will be meeting for the purposeof determining the best methods to handle the terrorist threats after the recent attacks.9 January A gunman has seized hostages at a kosher supermarket in Paris. Armed police have flooded thearea. Police’s reports state that 4 people were killed after a gunman believed to be the killer ofa policewoman in Montrouge entered the supermarket near Porte de Vincennes. Fifteenhostages were later set free. It has been confirmed that the gunman is dead and that he has beenidentified as suspect Amely Coulibaly. A woman wanted alongside Coulibaly is thought to be atlarge. In Dammartin-en-Goele, the Charlie Hebdo suspects are also holding a hostage. The twoIslamist militants were inside a small printing business. Amely Coulibaly and Cherif Kouachispoke to news station BFMTV before they died stating that they worked ‘’in synchronisation’’during the attacks and they have links with Islamic state. Kouachi added that he was linked toAl Qaeda in Yemen.8 January A female police officer has died of her injuries after she was shot by two men carrying assaultrifles in southern Paris. This new attack came less that 24 hours after the gun attack on theoffices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. The officer was identified as Clarissa Jean-Philippe, 27 years old, who had only been in the job for 15 days. The police announced that twosuspects are in custody. According to the French Interior Minister’s announcement, it is believedthat the shooting is not connected with the Charlie Hebdo killings.7 January Masked gunmen attacked and opened fire at the offices of satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo ineast Paris. They were armed with AK-47s and pump-action shotguns. According to the police’sreports, 12 people have been killed in the attack and 11 are injured. The magazine was featuredon al-Qaeda’s hit-list since it published controversial cartoons depicting the ProphetMohammed in 2011. French President Francois Hollande quickly arrived to the scene andlabeled it a ‘’terrorist attack’’. The attack was well-planned and executed, to the extend that theterrorists were able to make good their escape in a black Citroen. France’s Interior Minister saidpolice were looking for ‘’three criminals’’, though it is not clear how many took part in theshooting itself. The police named three suspects who they believe are responsible for the attack.Brothers Said Kouachi and Cherif Kouachi are believed to be French nationals of Algeriandescent aged in their early 30s. They are still at large. Cheri Louachi was sentenced to 18 monthsin prison after being convicted of terrorism charges in 2008 for helping funnel fighters to Iraq’sinsurgency. A 18-year-old, Hamyd Mourad ,surrendered at a police station in Charleville-Mezieres. The police has not releases further details on Hamyd’s relationship to the twobrothers. France raised its security alert to the highest level and reinforced protective measuresat houses of worship, media offices and transportation. In Paris and other European countriesthousand of people protested against the attack holding aloft pens and papers reading ‘’Je suisCharlie’’. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility for the rampage.A French court convicted the Algerian Said Arif, an Islamist militant to three years of prison,even though he did not appear in court. Arif is considering by the French authorities one of themain recruiters of foreigners to the jihadist fight against government forces in Syria. He waspreviously convicted in 2007 in France for terrorist-related activities and was sentenced tothree years in prison for crimes stemming from his flight from house arrest in January 2012. Inaddition to being sought by France, he was added by the United Nations to its list of sanctioned154

Global Security ReportGermanyextremists in August. The U.S. State Department classified him as a Specially Designated GlobalTerrorist. Two warrants, one European and one international, have been issued for his arrest.27 January Some 29 people were injured in a demonstration against the anti-Islam Pegida movement in thenorthern German city of Hanover. Pegged opponents clashed with police in central Hanoverleaving 24 policemen and five demonstrators injured. Both anti-Pegida protestors and policeused pepper spray. Demonstrators also threw fireworks and bottles against the police.22 January German police arrested 26-year-old Mustafa C. and 27-year-old Sebastian B. in North Rhine-Westphalia. According to the prosecutors, they had traveled to Syria in 2013 to fight withMuhajirun Halab (Aleppo Migrants), a group that would later join up with the Islamic State.Authorities also suspect the men of having trained to fight a holy war and undertaken logisticaltasks such as providing transport for food and supplies to the front line in Syria. Federalprosecutors accused Mustafa C. of managing propaganda within his fighting group. Sebastian B.returned to Germany in November 2013 and Mustafa C. returned from Syria in September 2014.The German authorities announced that they plan to add about 385 police and intelligenceofficers to aid the fight against extremism in the area.21 January Protesters flooded the streets of the German city of Leipzig as those attending an ‘’anti-Islamization’’ rally faced off with crowds of counter-demonstrators who oppose the country’sgrowing far-right movement. The ‘’anti-Islamization’’ protesters were around 15,000 and thecrowd of protesters opposing the group was close to 20,000. Violence broke out between thetwo camps near the end of the demonstration as firecrackers and bottles were thrown. Therewere also reports about attacks against journalists from the far-right protesters.On January 21, in Dusseldorf, began the trial of a woman accused of sending money and filmmakingequipment to ISIS in Syria. The 25-year-old woman holds German and Polish citizenship.Identified by the court only as Karolina S., she has been in custody since March 2014 and facesup to 10 years in jail if convicted.20 January A German man of Afghan descent went on trial, charged with being a member of a terroristorganization and an accomplice to murder in Syria after participating in a jihadist attack on aprison in Aleppo. Munich court spokeswoman, Andrea Titz, said the German-born man, aged 27and identified only as Harun P., could face a life sentence if convicted at the trial. According toTitz, he was active in an Islamic terror group from October 2013 to April 2014 and trained tofight. He grew in Germany and he was radicalized in recent years before going to Syria.18 January German police issued a 24-hour ban that stopped a planned rally by the anti-Islam Pegidamovement and other open-air gatherings in the eastern city of Dresden citing a terrorist threat.According to the local police, they received information from federal and state counterpartsindicating a ‘’concrete threat’’ against the right-wing populist group ‘’Patriotic EuropeansAgainst the Islamisation of the Occident’’. There had been calls for would-be ‘’assassins to mingleamong the protesters…and to murder an individual member of the organizing team of thePegida demonstrations’’ as the German authorities announced.16 January German authorities have received specific warnings of the risk of militant attacks on centralrailway stations in Berlin and Dresden. The police made the announcement after a series of predawnpolice raids on 12 homes linked to radical Islamists, where two people were arrested. Thearrests followed investigations which have been going on for several months into five Turkishcitizens aged 31 to 44, who are suspected of ‘’preparing a serious act of violence against the statein Syria’’. The weekly marches in Dresden by the anti-Islam, anti-immigration movement Pegidaare considered especially vulnerable. The rallies take place near the Dresden rail station andhave drawn crowds of around 25,000. The German Interior Ministry declined to confirm or denyconcrete warnings.155

Global Security Report13 January The debate in Germany over measures to counter terrorist threats has gained fresh impetusfollowing the series of attacks in Paris. German Justice Minister Heiko Maas announced thegovernment’s plans to tighten laws to combat terrorism. The impeding measures are going toinclude laws to more severely punish financial backers of terrorist groups as well as radicalIslamists travelling to conflict zones. The legislative initiative is intended to change the country’sexisting personal ID law, to introduce a substitute personal ID, which would restrict holders totravel within German borders, and to change existing passport law.11 January Arsonists have firebombed the offices of a German newspaper which print cartoons from theFrench magazine Charlie Hebdo, in the city of Hamburg. The Hamburger Morgenposqt hadpublished the images at the aftermath of the terror attack in Paris. According to the police, rockswere thrown through the cellar windows of the building followed by an ‘’incendiary device’’. Noone was injured in the incident.10 January In the wake of the terrorist attack against the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo a rallyagainst racism took place in Germany. Tens of thousands of people attended a massive rallyagainst racism and xenophobia in the city of Dresden. The city Mayor, Helma Orosz, announcedthat the German citizens are not going to permit hate to divide them. This rally was the answerto the series of anti-Islam protests organised by the Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisationof the West, that flood Dresden with weekly protests. The protesters are known as ‘’Pegidaprotesters’’. After the Paris attacks another Pegida rally took place in Dresden where a record25,000 people joined the anti-Islamization campaign despite the calls from the Germanpoliticians to stay away from this kind of organisations.8 January A 36-year-old German man and a 27-year-old Turkish citizen went on trial in Berlin chargedwith membership of a foreign terror group in Syria. According to the German’ FederalProsecutor, Matthias Krauss, the suspects had traveled to Syria in 2013 where they joined Junudal-Sham,. The terror group is of Chechen origin. During their time in Syria they received trainingand fought along with the fighters of the terror group. The trial was adjourned after the defencefiled a complaint that some members of the court were biased. This is one of the many similarcases that have flooded the German justice system that is struggling to cope with the number ofsuspected jihadists returning from Syria.7 January German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s website was crippled by an attack that hackers said was aprotest against her support of Ukraine’s government. The German parliament’s website wasalso blocked, marking a ‘’serious attack’’ by ‘’ multiple external systems’’, according to SteffenSeibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman. The attacks was timed to coincide with Ukrainian PrimeMinister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s visit to Germany today. The attack flies in the face of pledges byMerkel’s government to step up funding and expertise for security on its internal and publicsites after Edward Snowden’s leaks on snooping by U.S. and U.K. spy agencies.5 January The Pegida’s protests against the ‘’Islamisation’’ of Europe are still in full force in Germany. Thecampaign is organised by the Patriotic Europeans, and there are weekly protests in Germanysince October. Recently, a new wave of counter demonstrations have sprung up and the grouphas been condemned by senior German politicians. Thousands of people marched in Berlin,Cologne, Dresden and Stuttgart at the counter-demonstrations. According to the police, inDresden’s rally more than 18,00 people turned up for just one anti-immigration rally. InCologne, the local authorities switched off the lights of the city’s cathedral as a way of warningPegida’s supporters they were supporting ‘’extremists’’.Netherlands29 January A teenage gunman stormed in the studios of the national broadcaster and demanded to be puton air. After the man’s arrest ended the hostage crisis at the NOS studios in Hilversum, 12 mileseast of Amsterdam. No-one was hurt and no shots were fired during the incident, whichinterrupted the NOS evening news broadcast. Police said in a statement that the man demandedairtime and threatened that bombs would go off at several locations around Netherlands if his156

Global Security Reportdemand was not met. He had intended to speak to the country on the most popular eveningnews broadcast, but was led to an empty studio by the security guard. The teenager has beenidentified as Tarik Zahzah. His threats were also contained in a letter that the man took to thestudio. The authenticity of the letter could not be confirmed.24 January Dutch Jews asked the government to post troops outside synagogues to match securitymeasures in France and Belgium. The plea came in letters addressed to mayors by officials froma number of Jewish communities in the Netherlands following an Islamist’s slaying on January9 of four Jews at a kosher supermarket near Paris. Some Dutch synagogues have policeprotection, while others have no armed guards.13 January A new threat issued by a group claiming affiliation with ISIS names Amsterdam amongst severalpotential high-profile targets. Titled ‘’Lone Wolves’’, the Arabic-language piece seems topromote the use of dirty bombs (Cesium-131). The spokesman for the National Coordinator forSecurity and Counterterrorism, Edmond Messchaert, announced that even though the securityservices investigate every possible threat, they do not consider that particular jihadist group asa serious threat for the country’s national security. Other cities mentioned on Lone Wolves’message include London, Madrid, San Francisco and Sydney.11 January The Netherlands is taking extra ‘visible and invisible’ security measures following the series ofterrorist attacks in France. According to the Prime Minister, the ongoing events in Paris‘emphasize the need to remain alert’. He also urged everyone who detects unusual behavior orknow someone who plans to travel to Syria to come forward. The PM added that the terroristthreat in the Netherlands remains ‘substantial’, the second highest level. The Security Minister,Ivo Opstelten, confirmed that around 180 Dutch jihadis have travelled to Syria and Iraq, ofwhom 35 have returned. He assured the public that they are all being monitored either by thepolice or security officials.Switzerland19 January Swiss security forces announced that they are ready to handle any potential terrorist threat toglobal leaders attending the World Economic Forum in Davos. The head of the armed forcesjoint staff, Major-General Jean-Marc Halter, reported that since the 9/11 attack Switzerland isalways ready for the worst case scenario. According to the Swiss Intelligence Agency, so farthere are no evidence or threat of a direct terrorist attack in the country. Some 3,000 Swissmilitary personnel will be protecting 2,500 participants of the World Economic Forum.15 January A video which surfaced on the internet shows three bearded French-speaking men in Syriapraising the French terrorists who killed 17 people, and threatened further such actions acrossEurope. It is believed that the video was shot in Raqqa, a Syrian stronghold for jihadists, and itis featured on the Middle East Media Research Institute’s (MEMRI) website. They added thatthere are going to be more and more operations in all of Europe, and more specifically in France,in Belgium, in Germany, in Switzerland and in America. They also encouraged their supportersto kill law enforcement officials. Swiss media reported that the men spoke French with differentaccents, respectively from North Africa157

Global Security ReportLatin AmericaCentral AmericaCosta Rica23 January Police officials have arrested three Jamaicans after a large marihuana seizure off the coast ofLimon. The joint operation that involved the US and Costa Rican coast guards, as well asColombian authorities, made possible the interception of a vessel in the Caribbean sea off thecoast of Puerto Limon. The Police Coast Guards found 38 bags of marihuana out of the sea afterthat the five-member crew started throwing their illicit cargo overboard. The drugs were worth$74 million and were destined to Costa Rica. According to Public Minister Celso Gamboa this isthe first major seizure in the year 2015.21 January Costa Rican authorities announced that they intercepted a truck transporting 42 illegalNicaraguan migrants close the border with Nicaragua. The Costa Rican truck driver wasarrested. The truck supposedly delivering stock goods, was driven by Castillo, 51-years-old, whowas arrested for allegedly participating to human trafficking. The 42 undocumented people, allmen between 20- to 40-years-old are currently being interrogated by police officials tounderstand their motives to cross the border, and if they had to pay someone.10 January Airport police arrested a 29-year-old Israeli tourist who was carrying more than 3kg of cocainein his suitcase. The suspect, named Roi, was found with 3,25kg of cocaine that was wrapped inseveral small packages hidden beneath a false bottom in his suitcase. Roi had entered Costa Ricaon December 25, 2014, and was reportedly planning to travel to Paris, France, when policeofficers intercepted him at Juan Santamaría International Airport outside San José. The man wasalso carrying $1,676 and £285 in cash at the time of his arrest.7 January Costa Rican Immigration Officers sent back about 3,000 Nicaraguan people to their countrybetween the end of December 2014 and the beginning of January 2015. The 3,000 Nicaraguanswere taken to the border of Peñas Blancas and its surroundings during an operation ofimmigration control on the Nicaraguan border. The director of Migration, Kathya Rodriguez saidthat: “It is important to signal that as a part of the operation coordinated by the border police inthe northern zone of the country, more than 3,000 people were rejected.” The operation ofmigration control has the purpose of guarantying the exit from the country of 300,000 peopleby ports, borders or airports.El Salvador30 January Police forces arrested 117 people as they staged raids targeting gang members across thecountry. During the operations weapons and ammunitions were seized, which were conductedin the departments of La Paz, San Vicente, Cabanas and elsewhere. The important streets gangshave for years plagued the country and other states in the region. This operation was launchedin the perspective of the escalation of violence that El Salvador is suffering from several weeks.28 January Several leaders of El Salvador’s two main street gangs urged the government to begin a dialoguein order to reduce violence and tone down its tough stance against their members after the vicepresident announced that police could open fire on them if necessary. As violence has heavilyescalated over the past year after a 2012 truce between the MS-13 and Barrio 18 started tounravel. But it is likely that the government will reject the approach from the gangs, whose turfwars have helped make El Salvador one of the most violence country in the Americas.158

Global Security ReportFive people were found dead in the district of El Espartano in Cuscatlan. The Attorney General’sOffice said that it was a group of gang members that arrived in a place where the victims wereworking on a construction site, and that after choosing the youngest of the workers, the gangmembers deadly fired at them. Authorities affirmed that more than 50 people were working onthe same location at the moment of the events. Police officers suspect the gang members tobelong to the Barrio 18. The gang members remain nowhere to be found.24 January Police authorities seized 500 fake police uniforms that might have been intended for use asdisguises for gang members, because clashes between street gangs and security forces intensify.Members of Salvadorian national police force confiscated the counterfeit uniforms in a clothingfactory in San Salvador. It is a local citizen who notified authorities of the illegal fabrication ofthe police uniforms. Police officials are currently investigating the owners of the factory whoremain unknown. It is believed that gang members could use them in order to extort, rob orcommit other types of crimes and it could be the signal that they are looking for new ways toavoid detection as they ramp up attacks against rival gangs and security forces.22 January El Salvador’s vice-president announced that police should respond with force and “without anyfear of suffering consequences if threatened by gang members.” Vice President Oscar Ortiz saidthat the government endorsed the decision of the federal police direct last week to authorizethe new policy. Before the implementation of this new policy, police officers that used deadlyforce would be investigated and sometimes fired. Ortiz also added that the Salvadoriangovernment would no longer tolerate attacks on the country’s police, military, judges orprosecutors.18 January According to media reports in El Salvador, dozens of families abandoned their homes in a smallcoastal town due to threats from the MS13 gang, it is an example of how organized crimeremains one of the major causes of displacement in Central America. At least 50 families lefttheir homes in the town of San Luis la Herradura, fearful of threats reportedly issued by MS-13gang members. Members of the fleeing families said that the gang had threatened to punish thetown for providing shelter to 2 ex-gang members.13 January El Salvador’s business community announced that it had hired the former New York City MayorRudy Giuliani in order to advise the Salvadoran government on how to curb soaring crimedriven by lawless gangs and corruption. Indeed, the country’s homicide rate exceeds those ofsome war zones. On 18 January, Giuliani Security & Safety CEO John Huvane will arrive in thecapital San Salvador with a small team of researchers. A part from assessing the effectiveness ofthe country’s law enforcement, the team will analyse the criminal justice from the momentpolice arrest a suspect to their incarceration or release. During his period as a mayor (1993-2001), the FBI Uniform Crime Index showed that crime in New York fell by 56% while crimenationwide only fell by 16%.11 January Two suspected Salvadoran human smugglers have been arrested for their alleged involvementin attempting to smuggle unaccompanied children into the United States. U.S Immigration andCustoms Enforcement’s, Homeland Security Investigations special agents from the AssistantAttaché Office in El Salvador assisted police officers who made the arrests. Tene JonathanHernandez Gomez, and Rubia Benavide, both from El Salvador, are charged with attempting tosmuggle unaccompanied minors for profit. 3- and 9-year-old children were rescued and turnedover to Salvadoran child welfare services. The special agents seized $1,700, one vehicle, five cellphones and two passports.5 January A fire broke out in the town of Antiguo Cuscatlan, 12 km away from San Salvador. According toinformation provided by rescue workers, more than 600 employees were evacuated as the firebroke out in the Las Cascadas Commercial Center. The fire was finally controlled by fire-fightersand no one was killed.1 January Salvadorian authorities said that homicides in El Salvador jumped by 56% in 2014 as a trucebetween MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs crumbled. The National Civil Police reported 3,875homicides in total, compared with 2,490 in 2013. Just in December, there was an average of 12159

Global Security ReportGuatemalaHondurashomicides daily. El Salvador’s police chief said in a conference that the 2012 truce has fallenapart as turf wars escalated between the gangs.No major incidents to report.31 January Four men were shot dead by gunmen on the streets of the capital city Tegucigalpa. Thishappened just days after the president said homicide rates were decreasing in the violenceplaguedHonduras. Police officers said that the four men were talking on a street corner in aslum neighbourhood when a car pulled up and at least six people came out of the car and startedshooting. The motive for the deaths is still unknown and the gunmen remain nowhere to befound.15 January Three bodies were discovered in Tegucigalpa in a clandestine grave at a gang-dominated teenlockup and are believed to be inmates previously thought to have fled. The dismemberedcorpses were buried near a perimeter wall at the Renacimiento Center for the Rehabilitation ofMinors. The facilities are located about 12 miles north of the capital of Tegucigalpa. One of thebodies has already been identified as an inmate who escaped a year ago and who was reportedas a fugitive.14 January Honduras’ relations with the U.S in matters of security are being developed. They now havebuilt a strong, longstanding relationship based on common goals and cooperation. The U.S. andHonduras held a High Level Security Dialogue and discussed areas where they will continue towork together in order to prevent and reduce crime, strengthen judicial institutions and holdaccountable drug traffickers and other criminals. Honduras benefited from notable successesover the past years as the extradition of major drug traffickers to the U.S. and an impressivedrop in the homicide rate.13 January Police officers saved a taxi-man in the neighbourhood of La Cañada de Comayaguela in thecentral area of Honduras. He had been abducted last Saturday during the afternoon. The rapidityof police officers, who launched a search that only lasted few minutes, avoided the murder ofthe taxi-man by Barrio 18 gang members. During the operation, 3 suspects of the Barrio 18 ganghave been arrested and identified at Franklin Joel Campos Romero, Denis Mauricio CastroBenitez and Luis Alfredo Ramirez Caceres. The taxi-man was assaulted in his own car, butfortunately it engendered an alert for which the police officers activated a rescue operation.12 January The recent joint work of the Technical Agency for Criminal Investigation and the National Officeof Fight against Drug Trafficking organized their first operation against drug trafficking onSunday. During the first hours of the day, they operated an action in the sector of Curumo,located close to Tegucigalpa the capital. According to authorities, in this sector was located thecompany called Impex S de R. L, which is the same that tried to send wooden sticks containingcocaine base paste in four different containers from Colombia. The police officers found severalcontainers with wooden sticks that were also containing cocaine base paste but no exactquantity has been determined. The police officers are currently investigating the affair.7 January An Aids activist named Keren Dunaway who was abducted in the city of San Pedro Sula onTuesday has been released. Keren Dunaway, 18-years-old, was abandoned in a car after an 8-hours abduction. Police said her captors had asked for ransom but had released after her motherassured them that the family had no money. 3 gunmen had abducted her and her mother whilein a parked car outside the office of the NGO they both run. Minutes later, they released themother and kept Keren. She succeeded in making them know the family had no money to offerand that the NGO was a non-profit organisation and to get back her daughter.160

Global Security ReportUruguay15 January The state-owned oil company of Uruguay announced that there might be more crude oil todiscover. Australian company Petrel Energy has declared that it has found and certified theexistence of 20 potential oil deposits in the north of Uruguay, the only state in the region thatimports all the hydrocarbons that it consumes. Uruguayan state petrol company ANCAP, saidthat the certification includes “20 potential explorations”, with an estimation of risk-freeresources of up to 1.8 billion recoverable barrels which would imply 5.6 billion barrels originallyin the sub-soil. ANCAP added saying that there might be more oil to be discovered but for whichmore exploratory work will be required.9 January Uruguayan authorities have found what appeared to be a simulated explosive device about 100meters from an office complex, which is housing the Israeli Embassy. It is the police dogs thatdetected the device in a supermarket bag during a routing check around the World Trade Centrearea of Montevideo. The area was rapidly evacuated. The Colonel Yamandu Lessa said the objecthad detonating cord, which is itself explosive, but no detonator or other element that could setit off. He added: “Everything indicates that it could be a simulation. There was also a wirelessdoorbell that you could find in any supermarket and some cables.” It is not yet clear if it is theIsraeli Embassy or the World Trade Centre that were targeted.7 January After announcing the possibility of legalizing the production of marihuana, the governmentbegan accepting applications for its botanists and marihuana producers since the beginning ofthe year. Thus far, at least 1,200 Uruguayans have registered with Uruguay’s Institute forRegulation and Control of Cannabis to cultivate cannabis on their home soil. Those growerswon’t be selling marihuana directly to patients, however, the country’s law dictates patientsmust buy their medicine through licensed pharmacies. The legislation on pharmacies is still ongoing,the law allowing them to sell marihuana should be voted shortly.Mexico30 January A gas truck explosion wrecked Mexico City children’s hospital killing 2 people and injuring 73others. The blast collapsed about ¾ of the hospital. After finishing the work, the rescuers wereable to confirm that nobody was left trapped in the rubble. The explosion occurred at 7:05 a.m.when a tanker truck was making a routine delivery of gas to the hospital kitchen and gas startedto leak. The two gas workers tried to stop it but they couldn’t so people began to evacuate thehospital, and then came the devastating explosion.28 January Jesus Murillo Karam, Mexico’s attorney general declared all 43-missing students, citing 39confessions as well as evidences from the spot where, he said, they were killed and incineratedshortly after being sized by police forces. Murillo Karam said: “The evidence allows us todetermine that the students were kidnapped, killed, burned and thrown into the river. » It is thefirst time since their disappearance that Mexico’s attorney general declared the death of all ofthe students. Only one student was identified via DNA, a European lad announced that it wasimpossible to identify the rest.27 January Marking 4 months since the disappearance of the 43 students teachers in Mexico’s Guerrerostate, supporter organized mass demonstrations in Mexico and abroad, demanding for thestudent’s return. Several thousands of protesters attended demonstrations across Mexico, withmany blaming the state for the student’s disappearance. Family members and classmates of the43-missing students released a video, urging people to attend the protests in order to putpressure on the government, which has made little progress in the affair.26 January The body of Moises Sanchez, a journalist who was abducted by armed men three weeks ago hasbeen found in eastern Mexico. Mexican authorities said that a former police officer confessedcarrying out the crime allegedly at the request of the city’s mayor. The disappearance of Sanchezhas provoked protests in the state of Veracruz, where at least 11 journalists have been murderedsince December 2010. Sanchez’s family said he received threats that had pointed to Mayor Omar161

Global Security ReportCruz as the main suspect in his disappearance. State prosecutor Luis Angel Bravo said that anex-police officer confessed to participating in Sanchez’s death along with 5 other people. The expoliceofficer said they mutilated his body, beheaded the journalist, and abandoned him in aravine. Prosecutor Bravo said he will ask the state legislature to withdraw the immunity theMayor is benefiting from so that he can be charged.24 January The university called Universidad Valle de Mexico campus in the border city of Nuevo Laredohas been closed for more than a week due to threats and attempted extortion by gangsters. Theuniversity shut down on January 15 and security personnel have been withdrawn. Vicepresidentfor corporate affairs and communications for the university Sophie Anaya said: “Thecampus closed in response to a threat received from a criminal gang that wanted to enter thefacilities, and if not, (said) it would retaliate. » She also added that the decision was made toavoid a confrontation that could have repercussions for students and staff. Officials are workingon a plan to offer alternatives so students can continue their education. Authorities will provideadditional protection in order to restart classes as soon as possible.22 January Mexican police located on the Mexican-US border said that a drone overloaded with illicitmethamphetamine has crashed into a supermarket parking lot. Tijuana police officer JorgeMorrua said that authorities were alerted after the drone felt near the San Ysidro crossing atMexico’s border with California. 6 packets containing methamphetamine weighting more than6 pounds were taped to the remote-controlled aircraft. It is not yet known to whom the drugsbelongs.17 January A purported drug cartel hit man was arrested in connection with the disappearance and allegedkilling of the 43-missing students in southern Mexico in September. Felipe Rodriguez, alias “TheBrush”, is a member of the Guerreros Unidos gang and believed to be the “material author” ofthe killings. The Mexican police are currently investigating the case.14 January Mexican officials have filed an arrest warrant for the former mayor of the southern city Igualafor the kidnapping of the 34-missing students. Head of criminal investigations for the FederalProsecutor’s Office Tomas Zeron declared the arrest order for the former mayor and 44 otherpeople are also named in the warrant. This is the first time the judicial system has officiallylinked Iguala ex-mayor called Jose Luis Abarca to the disappearance of the 43 students. Abarcaand his wife Maria de Los Angeles Pineda, have been in custody since they were detained inMexico City. Last week, the former mayor’s wife was charged with organized crime and moneylaundering.13 January The leader of Mexican gang that operates in the northern state of Sonora was arrested in MexicoCity. Federal security forces detained Juan Omar Borbolla Figueroa and four of his bodyguards.The Attorney General’s Office said that Borbolla Figueroa “is one of those behind the high levelof violence in Ciudad Obregon and Hermosillo. The suspect was hiding in the Federal Districtbecause rival groups wanted to deprive him of his life as a result of a fight for control of illegalactivities in Sonora. He ran kidnappings, extortions rackets, drug sales and the settling ofaccounts from Mexico City. » Borbolla Figueroa negotiated with other gangs in the capital toopen up new drug smuggling routes. Authorities seized three rifles, four handguns and twovehicles from him.Relatives of the 43-missing students and students stormed a Mexican military base in the cityof Iguala where the aspiring teachers vanished, prompting soldiers to repel with tear gas. Theprotesters had travelled to Iguala, to demand to search the barracks because they believe themissing young men may have been hidden there. When the soldiers refused to let them in, thegroup hijacked a soda company’s truck and used it in order to break through a gate, but soldiersand police officers stopped them from going further than 20 meters. Then protesters threwempty beer bottles from another truck. 4 people were injured.9 January Mexican authorities held 13 police officers for investigation in the disappearance of kidnapedjournalist Moises Sanchez and awaited the results of DNA tests on a body found in the area inorder to determine if it is him. The police officers detained represent about a third of the police162

Global Security Reportforces of the city of Medellin de bravo in the state of Veracruz. Prosecutor Luis Angel Bravo saidthat the 13 could be held for up to 30 days while the investigation is carried out. The corpse thatis being examined was one of two that were found in the area in the days after his disappearance.8 January The Mexican authorities reported the discovery of 10 decapitated bodies and 11 heads havebeen discovered in unmarked graves in the state of Guerrero, in southern Mexico. The feet andhands on the corpses had been tied and the victims had clearly been tortured. The police officersfound the decomposed bodies following an anonymous call. This mountainous region was thescene of armed clashes between rival drug trafficking groups who fought for control of the truthlast year.Nine civilians were killed in two clashes between the army and a group of armed civilians in thestate oh Michoacán. Alfredo Castillo, the security commissioner for Michoacán, told reporters inMexico City that the confrontations in the city of Apatzingan began when the army tried to takecontrol of the city hall. Armed civilians, whose identities and demands were unclear, had heldthe area for days. In the first clash, 44 people were arrested and 13 rifles, 23 vehicles andgrenades were seized. In the second clash, armed men attacked soldiers as they were trying toseize the vehicles. The identities of those who had taken over the city hall, presumably membersof the same group, remain a mystery.6 January Former mayor of Iguala, the city where the 43 student teachers disappeared and wheremurdered, the wife of the former mayor has been charged with organized crime and conductingoperations with funds of illicit origin. Maria de los Angeles Pineda is currently being held in amaximum-security prison until the start of her trial. It is not yet clear if the charges are relatedto the 43-missing students. However, the Prosecutor said that Pineda and her husband could bethe masterminds of the kidnappings and linked to a local drug gang.Armed men abducted a Mexican journalist called José Moisés Sanchez Cerezo at his home in themunicipality of Medellin de Bravo in central Veracruz during the evening. The armed men seizedthe journalist’s computer, camera and other electronic devices. The journalist remains nowhereto be found until now. Sanchez worked as a taxi and he used the money he earned to found asmall weekly print and online newspaper that covered local events in Medellin de Bravo. He wasfamous for denouncing local criminal activity as well as poor quality of basic services. Recentlyhe had published critical articles, he also acted as a source for other journalists. The journalists’son said that the mayor had threatened him for his articles. The police forces are investing thecase and searching for José Sanchez.4 January The founder of a Mexican self-defence group in Mexico’s restive state of Michoacán was arrestedalong with 26 followers for their alleged role in 10 deaths during a shootout with a rival grouplast month. Hipolito Mora and his followers participated in a clash with a band led by LuisAntonio Torres, a former self-defence leader turned rural police commander. A state judge saidthat enough evidence pointed to the involvement of Mora and his friends to go ahead with thelegal process. Michoacán is currently being torn by violence; self-defence groups’ actions arelikely to increase in the future.NicaraguaMexican authorities investigating the case of the disappearance of 43 student teachers inGuerrero state have arrested 10 more municipal police officers. Around 90 people in total havebeen arrested, including 58 police officers. The remains of 42 student teachers are still nowhereto be found.7 January Nicaraguan police officials announced the arrest of a man carrying more than 12,000 units ofseveral contraband drugs across the border from Nicaragua into Costa Rica. The man, calledJarquin, was carrying the drugs in a suitcase in an area near the Peñas Blancas border crossing.Among the thousand items contained in the suitcase were several containers of marihuana –based anti-inflammatory cream. This seizure stood out for they everyday pharmaceuticals thatcomposed it, from antibiotics to acne, arthritis and asthma medications. The assistant163

Global Security ReportProsecutor, Liliana Zamora said that this kind of contraband is common in Nicaragua and thatthe drugs will be destroyed.1 January As strong demonstrations continue all around the country, Indigenous communities inNicaragua presented a request to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to stop theinter-oceanic canal project that started on 22 December. The Rama y Kriol territorialgovernment, which represents indigenous groups, asked the Commission to stop the projectuntil a public consultation process is held. Labour Ministry official Samuel Rivera said he wasquite satisfied with the agreement, adding: “the most important thing is that they succeeded inestablishing internal dialogue (consortium and workers) that had been broken and which couldavoid stoppages in the future.”Panama20 January Panamanian police authorities announced they have dismantled a FARC camp that was used forweapon repair and production in the Darien region, bordering Colombia. The FARC camps wasallegedly being run by the FARC’s 57 th front, which is a revel fighters unit active along thePanama border. 3 people were arrested where police officers seized the equipment. Policeofficer said that: “Pieces of assault rifles, M-16 caliber ammunition, a power plant, a hydraulicwinch, oil, grease and other materials which were presumably used for the manufacture ofmilitary weapons were found, there was also a kitchen, medical and rest posts where membersof the FARC’s 57th front were housed. »6 January Two Panama City citizens are currently facing drug charges. The police officers arrested HannahBrown and Destiny Leeds after receiving multiple complaints from neighbours about possibledrug activity. When police officers arrived to their house on the 2400 Block of east 10 th Street,they said a strong smell of Marihuana was coming from the house. They said that they found apound of Marihuana, two ounces of cocaine and more than 800 Xanax pills. Brown is beingcharged with trafficking in cocaine, possession of a controlled substance and Marihuana withintent to sell. Leeds is charged with possession of drug paraphernalia.4 January The strike launched by workers on the Panama Canal extension ended as an agreement wasreached with the consortium overseeing the work. The management agreed to an audit oncompensation leave and work hours, overtime payments, as well as to reinstate a workerdismissed over a dispute with a supervisor. About 1,000 workers had begun the strike on 23December, which engendered major delays in the schedule of the construction.South AmericaArgentina27 January Argentina’s President Crisitina Fernandez de Kirchner announced in a speech that plans todissolve the country’s domestic intelligence agency are being considered. This is the solutionthat has been found for the drama that has involved allegations of government corruption andthe death of a prosecutor. The plan would be to dissolve the current agency and create a newfederal agency. The investigation is still on going and the responsible ones for the murder ofprosecutor Nisman are still being searched.24 January Argentine authorities said they suspect rogue agents from its own intelligence services werebehind the murder of Alberto Nisman, a state prosecutor investigating the deadly 1994 bombingof a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Argentine government says that Nisman’sallegations and his death are linked to a power struggle at Argentina’s intelligence agency andagents who had recently been fired. It appears that intelligence agents deliberately misledNisman and may have had a hand in writing parts of his complaint. The president chief of staff,Anibal Fernandez said: "When he was alive they needed him to present the charges against thepresident. Then, undoubtedly, it was useful to have him dead. » The government says it was a164

Global Security Reportconspiracy to falsely accuse the president and then do away with Nisman, yet no one has beenarrested in the case so far.20 January Alberto Nisman an Argentine Prosecutor who accused President Cristina Fernandez ofconcealing the involvement of Iran in a deadly 1994 terrorist attack on a Jewish cultural centerin Buenos Aires, was found shot dead early Monday. This happened hours before he was due toappear before Congress to present his reasons for seeking to indict the president, ForeignMinister Hector Timerman and five other people in connection with 85 deaths in an explosionat the offices of the Jewish organization AMIA. Police confirmed that the shot came from the 22-caliber gun found under Nisman’s body inside a locked bathroom at his home in Puerto Madero.No note was discovered. Nisman, who told his associates that he feared for his life, had a 10-member security detail. Even if she has made no public statement about Nisman’s death,Fernandez ordered Argentina’s intelligence agencies to declassify all materials pertaining to theprobe of the car-bomb attack on AMIA. Argentine police officials are currently searching theculprit for Nisman’s murder.16 January British armed forces ordered Falklands super missiles as Argentina leases Russian jets. Britainis expected to order £228 million-worth of super missiles in order to provide its Falklandsoverseas territories with extra protection as Argentina boosts its air power with Russian-loanedjets. The Falklands are currently under the protection of Rapier missiles, but the equipment issaid to be aging and less effective. The Ministry of Defense announced it would purchase aFuture Local Air Defense System and a truck-based surface-to-air missile system, to provideadditional military support in the area as it was revealed in December that Argentina wouldlease fighter jets from Russia.5 January In the northeastern province of Misiones, the death toll from the rains has risen to 6 with thediscovery of the bodies of a man and a girl. A powerful rainstorm had battered Misiones withheavy winds between Wednesday and Friday of last week. The storm forced the evacuation ofat least 200 people in cities located between Posadas and Montecarlo. The rainstorm broke outseveral bridges and cut off sections national highway 12, preventing motorists from using theroute.Bolivia22 January President Evo Morales started his third term as a president of Bolivia on January 21. TheBolivian Constitution normally allows a president just two terms, but the government arguedthat because Evo Morales was first elected under the country’s previous constitution, he couldseek a third mandate. Following the ceremony of his investiture speech, several leadersincluding President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela andPresident Rafael Correa of Ecuador joined President Evo Morales in the city of La Paz. PresidentMorales addressed a large crowd on Bolivia’s prospering economy, infrastructure and povertyreduction.21 January A man died of hypothermia in the south central Bolivian province of Chuquisaca after localvillagers tied him to a tree after allegedly surprising him while he was committing a theft. Theincident took place near Culpina, where the victim was seized by local inhabitants, who foundhim inside a house with two other accomplices, who managed to flee. The criminal was tied to atree and beaten by the enraged villagers, who left him tied at the site. Few hours later, policemanaged to recover the lifeless body of the man. Local villagers argue that they are applyingindigenous community justice, which is recognized in the Constitution implemented in 2009 butwhich does not allow death penalty or physical punishment.16 January Bolivia is currently experiencing heavy rains due to El Niño. The heavy rains that have beenfalling on Bolivia have left 13 dead and more than 6,000 people without homes said OscarCabrera the Vice-Minister of Civil Defense. Authorities have delivered 13 tons of humanitarianaid to the affected areas. Nearly the entire country has been hit badly by the rains, with only the165

Global Security Reportdepartment of remaining unaffected. Bolivia experiences heavy rains every year, last year therains resulted in 60 dead with 60,000 families affected. This year's rains are expected to be moresevere due to the effect of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño.Bolivian peasants urged on by local drug traffickers held 4 anti-drug police hostage and beatthem during several hours, along with 4 other civilians, in the Cochabamba area, one of Bolivia’smain coca-growing zones. The incident occurred when plainclothes anti-drug officers werecarrying out intelligence work near the city of Isinuta and came upon people conducting a drugtransaction. The officers seized 60kg of cocaine and arrested one person, but the othersmanaged to escape. Director of Cochabamba police, Alberto Antezana said: “When the officersleft the site, they were pursued by the drug traffickers, who intercepted them two km from there.When they were unable to hold them there, at the Eterazama Bridge, they alerted the publicsaying that they were dealing with 'volteadores' (people who steal seized drugs). The agentsidentified themselves as police, but the villagers took them hostage, disarmed them and burnedtheir vehicle. » The drug traffickers freed their arrested companion and made off with thecocaine. After beating the officers, the peasants locked them up in a room at the Eterazama RuralCenter. Antezana went to the site and negotiated during 5 hours with the local leaders, whoreleased the police officers. Police freed the four informants and arrested the four people whowere holding them, of whom three were sent to jail on charges of "kidnapping, attemptedmurder and torture."15 January The Bolivian Parliament dominated by President Evo Morales’ party, has accused formerpresident Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada and 12 other former senior officials of alleged economiccrimes that were committed during privatization of many companies in the 1990’s. Thelegislature approved 2 accusatory propositions against the 13 after hearing the ParliamentaryCommittee’s report following investigations at the request of the government over allegeddamage caused to the country with the privatization of public companies between 1989 and2000. The 13 were accused of contracts damaging to the state, wasteful conduct and breach ofduties.Brazil28 January A Brazilian police raid operation in Sao Paulo to recover stolen cargo and cars engendered thediscovery of two war tanks. Police officers said that the engine-less tanks were found inside awarehouse in the city of Sacoma, a low-income district of Sao Paulo. 500 television sets, car bodyparts and recently stolen semitrailer truck were also confiscated. Army officers said that thetanks did not belong to the army and that their origin would be investigated.25 January Brazil is currently suffering from important water cuts and blackouts that have spread acrosslarge areas of southeast parts of the country such as Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro.Power cuts and water rationing have affected more than 4 million people. In the Madureiradistrict of Rio de Janeiro residents have started demonstrations, beating empty cans and bucketsto express their frustration, as the area has not been provided with tap water since Christmas.Other cities have organized similar demonstrations. The water shortage will affect agricultureand industry. The government also announced that there would also be reductions in energysupplies. This is particularly a problem as there is extra demand for energy to power airconditioning during the summer months.20 January A police officer and an inmate were killed and 29 other prisoners wounded in the riot that hitBrazil’s overcrowded prison system. The violence erupted in a Recife jail when an orderlyprotest broke down, and was brought under control only after police forces arrived. Thesecretary of public safety for Pernambuco state has confirmed the death and injury toll.Explosions and gunfire were heard coming from inside the prison. Brazilian fails have faced astring of riots in recent months.Three workers were seriously injured in an explosion at Petrobras’ Landulpho Alves Refineryoutside the northeastern city of Salvador. It is the second serious accident at Brazil’s second-166

Global Security Reportlargest refinery in a week. The Union will stage a protest strike until Wednesday. The protestswill slow output by a small but yet significant amount.10 January Thousands took the streets of Sao Paulo to protest over an 18% increase in bus and subwayfares. Several clashed with police officers. The Sao Paulo police department said that thedemonstration of at least 2,000 people began peacefully. But 2 hours after the protest began,some people started throwing rocks at patrol cars and smashing store and bank windows. Thepolice dispersed the crowds with teargas and pepper spray. Officers arrested at least 50 people.Chile15 January Chile’s Senate has voted to end a dictatorship-era electoral system that has rejectedindependent candidates and guaranteed an outsized presence in Congress for the center-rightand center-left blocs. The binominal system had been in place since the 17-year dictatorship ofGeneral Augusto Pinchet ended in 1990. This is the first time there are enough votes in Congressto end it. Chilean Senators approved the measure on Wednesday. The project has been approvedby the lower house and will now be reviewed by a joint commission before taking effect for the2017 midterm elections. President Bachelet said that: “The change of the binominal system iswithout a doubt, a great advancement, it will allow us to be better represented and have betterideas in Congress. » The soon-to-be system essentially allots seats to parties by the proportionof votes they receive in each district.14 January A total of 101 wildfires located in different parts of Chile burned more than 14,000 hectares ofwoodland, pastureland and brush over the weekend, while destroying 15 homes. Some of thosefires were characterized as having a high resistance to control and continued to blaze on Monday12, while they were being fought by land and air. Executive Director Aaron Cavieres of Conafsaid that the most dangerous blazes were in the Maule region, close to Santiago. Six Conaf firebrigades and 2 helicopters are currently at work there, as well as brigades and aircraft of theforestry companies. Another fire in the region is still on going in El Cardonal sector near thetown of Cauquenes, with approximately 1,200 hectares affected by a blaze being fought by 3Conaf fire brigades and 1 helicopter.8 January A demonstration gathering hundreds of Chilean in Santiago in memory of Matias Catrileo, whowas shot by the police in 2008 during a violent clash to evict activists from land they had seized,turned into a massive clash with the police. The clash ended the march when many protestorsstarted shouting at police officers and throwing stones at them. More than 10 people werearrested. No injuries were reported.ColombiaThe Santiago Fire Department reported that the Franklin metro station in Santiago was filledwith smoke after that thieves blew up two ATMs. It is not yet known if there are any injuries.The thieves blew up the ATMs at 11:30 p.m., the group was composed by 6 people with gasolineand grabbed an unknown amount money. They arrived in a 4x4 truck and had hoods on theirheads. The police launched a manhunt for the crafty crew.30 January Officials in Colombia arrested 17 members of an alleged drug ring accused of money launderingand smuggling cocaine from Venezuela to the United States. Last month a Puerto Rican federalgrand jury issued an indictment against the group of 29 people. Six had already been arrestedin Colombia before. They will be extradited to Puerto Rico, where police officers are searchingfor the remaining ones. The drug traffickers used speedboats to ship drugs from Venezuela tothe island of Vieques, off the east coast of Puerto Rico.National police forces in Colombia warned that the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel and other drugtrafficking organizations are currently using the local textile industry and fabric to laundermoney. General Gustavo Moreno, the Customs Police Director said that the smuggling of textilesis directly linked to the money laundering activities of the Sinaloa Cartel and other operating167

Global Security Reportdrug trafficking organizations. Last year only, Colombia’s customs police seized about $30million in textile contraband. Colombian authorities have already arrested 219 people for suchcrimes in 2014.29 January The FARC rebels accused President Juan Manuel Santos of putting in danger the guerrillagroup’s indefinite and unilateral cease-fire and thus the on-going peace negotiations, due tocontinued military hostilities. In a statement, a FARC leader said: “President Santos: in themiddle of a process that looks for reconciliation, it is incoherent to provoke in this way therestarting of fire. Such irresponsibility has strained the atmosphere, making the unilateralcease-fire ever more unsustainable. » Negotiations are set to restart February 2. PresidentSantos said that it was the year of peace and that he looks forward to finding a concrete solutionto this issue.25 January Colombian officials declared the arrest of former right-wing senator Julio Manzur Abdala overalleged ties with Colombia’s paramilitary groups. The Supreme Court issued a warrant andagents of the Technical Investigation team subsequently arrested the former senator inMonteria. Manzur will be transferred to Bogota where he will be questioned for allegedlyreceiving economic and political benefits through relationships with the paramilitaries. Formerparamilitary commanders Freddy Rendon and Salvatore Mancuso said Manzur receivedsupport from illegal armed groups, especially from the United Self Defense Forces of Colombia.They also added that they signed agreements with the former senator, and several politicalleaders in Cordoba in order to secure seats in Congress.24 January Colombian armed forces expelled 5 of its members and removed 20 others from their currentduties over their suspected role in spying operations targeting the government’s peace talkprocess with the FARC rebel group. Three officers, a patrolman and a non-commissioned officerwho are all members of the army or the National Police and all implicated in the leaking ofclassified information, have been removed from duties. The decision was taken after an armedforces probe into the involvement of police and soldiers in a military spying ring that was codenamed “Andromeda”, a separate illegal wiretapping operation that was headed by hackerAndres Sepulveda, and the creation of a purported database with e-mails of politicians andjournalists linked to the peace talk process as well as the leaking of secret intelligencedocuments.23 January Colombian authorities announced the incorporation of 32 Canadian-built bulletproof combatvehicles into of a new tactical unit recently created and located close to the border withVenezuela. The government has paid $84 million for the military vehicles partly in order tomodernize its armed forces. This is the first purchase of such hardware in the last 30 years.Those new vehicles can transport 11 heavily equipped soldiers and have a remote-controlledweapons system, along with an anti-mine technology. They will be used against illegal armedgroups and also protect oil pipelines and other important infrastructures in the north of LaGuajira province. The Defense Minister Juan Carlos Pinzon said that: “The Colombian armedforces are today stronger, more capable, more modern and able to face the challenges of thepresent and those of the future. »22 January ELN rebels allegedly killed two policemen in an attack in the southwest of Colombia. The twopolice officers were fatally shot from behind while conducting a reconnaissance operation on apilgrimage to a local holy site for Catholics in Tuquerres. Colombian police official said they offera $20,000 reward for information leading to the culprits. This fatal attack could slow theexploratory talks with the government over a possible peace deal.21 January About 50 teachers from the west of Colombia were arrested over allegations that had illegallyclaimed thousands of dollars in bonuses. According to Colombian pension system, only teacherswho began working before 1981 are entitled to this pension bonus. The special allowance calledpension grace is awarded to teachers with over 20 years of service in public schools. However,the people involved in this corruption scandal had managed to get help from corrupt lawyers tohelp them obtain falsified certificates to support their illegal claims. The arrested teachers have168

Global Security Reportbeen brought before judged under the alleged crime of forgery of documents, conspiracy andprocedural fraud and could face up to 20 years in prison.20 January Colombian police forces have confiscated more than 4 tons of marihuana in the northwest ofColombia that was presumably on its way to Venezuela. The drugs were found inside a truckthat was stopped near Pamplona, a town located on the road connecting Bucaramanga to theborder city Cucuta. Lieutenant Colonel Reynaldo Suarez said that: “The cargo was detectedthrough a routine check carried out in a vehicle on the road to Pamplona. The officials noticedthat the information given by the driver did not coincide with the type of material in the truckafter which the search began and the marijuana was found. » The driver of the truck containingthe drugs was immediately arrested and surrendered to prosecution officials.18 January Utah’s top law enforcement officer secretly travelled to Colombia in order to play a role in a sextraffickingoperation to help fight the crime before victims end up in Utah. In October, AttorneyGeneral Sean Reyes travelled to Colombia with an NGO and pretended to be a bodyguard andSpanish-speaking translator for a businessman seeking children for a sex party. When localColombian law enforcement and military officers burst in, the effort freed 54 children fromtrafficking. Sean Reyes was working with the Utah-based Operation Underground Railroad. Theorganization Underground Railroad said that Reyes participated in was one of 3 they staged inColombia last fall, freeing more than 120 children. The traffickers believed they were meetingwith healthy businessman who wanted to help build a child sex-trafficking ring in Utah. Thechildren were rescued and returned to their families.The head of ELN, announced that they have reached an agreement with the government over asix-point agenda for peace negotiations. The rebel group told the Colombian government lastweek they would consider calling an indefinite ceasefire if it agreed to engage in formal peacetalks, like they have done with the FARC guerrilla group. Antonio Garcia, ELN military leader,said the six-points are: participation of society, democracy for peace, transformations necessaryfor peace, implementation and signature of the agreement, victims rights, end of armed conflict.17 January The authorities of Buenaventura, Colombia’s biggest port on the Pacific rang the alarm afterhaving discovered 2 new dismembered corpses in a mass grave near the docks. According to theValle del Cauca state police, the remains belong to 2 local men. The relatives of the victims havealready confirmed the men had been missing for a few days, having at least been seen leavingfor work at a construction site. The finding of those new corps comes only 2 weeks after anothermutilated corpse of a 28-year-old man was found in the vicinity of a local airport. It is supposedthat all 3 are new instances in the blood-chilling case referred to as “chop-houses” which areabandoned houses where gangs, dismember, torture and disappear their victims. Last year anumber of similar stories of cut up body parts washed onto the shore of Buenaventura appalledthe country.15 January President Manuel Santos has said his government is for the first time prepared to begin talkson a bilateral ceasefire with FARC rebels. He also added that he has asked negotiators to startdiscussions as soon as possible. Colombian senior officers said the unilateral truce declared bythe FARC rebels last month was a step in the right direction.14 January A top FARC negotiator announced the reaffirmation of the Colombian rebel group’s intention toobserve a unilateral ceasefire as long as its forces do not come under attack. Pastor Alape saidthat the indefinite ceasefire represented a serious step toward the agreement of an armistice.This statement was made as last week, FARC rebels complained to suffer from military pressureon their guerrilla units. Further developments on the affair are to be waited in the next few days.The epidemic of Chikungunya now exceeds 83,000 cases in Colombia, by far the most in SouthAmerica. The country’s authorities also reported the death of 3 people related to the mosquitovirus since it was first detected in July 2014 in the Valle del Cauca. Despite the rapid rise in cases,Alejandro Gaviria the Colombian Health Minister told that the epidemic is not out of control.Besides, President Juan Manuel Santos said the government is currently training 5,000 doctors169

Global Security Reportand nurses to address the epidemic in hospitals and other healthcare centres, which will bereinforced by military medical services.11 January Colombia’s National Police announced the arrest of the top leader of the Office of Envigado druggang, which was founded as the enforcement wing of late drug lord Pablo Escobar’s Medellincartel. Julian Andrey Gonzalez, known as “Barny”, was detained in Bogota after he came backfrom Costa Rica, where he had been living. The National Police reported that he came back toColombia in order to obstruct the judicial proceedings against him and recognizer the structuresof his criminal gang in the slums of Medellin. He is accused of killing two police narcotics officersin Medellin’s Botanical Gardens in July 2012. He is also suspected of the murders of three otherpeople in 2008.8 January Colombia’s second largest rebel group the ELN, announced it is willing to lay down its weaponsif government-brokered peace talks open political space for leftist group. The ELN made theannouncement by releasing a short video in which Nicolas Rodriguez, the group’s topcommander, addresses guerrilla fighters gathered in the jungle for a clandestine congress. Inthe video the leader says that the group is willing to enter dialogue with the government in orderto end the half-century conflict.6 January President Juan Manuel Santos has stated that he could ease his longstanding opposition to aceasefire in the country’s armed conflict because recent progress in peace talks with leftistrebels had made the government rethink its negotiating strategy. Colombia’s President said thathe finally honoured recent FARC’s action and their unilateral declaration of ceasefire, which therebel group has been honouring. President Santos did not mention what specific peace-buildinggestures are under consideration but he said that after 2 years of peace talks, circumstanceshave changed and hence the military pursuit of rebel leaders while negotiating would no longerbe advisable. Meetings between government officials and FARC rebel leaders will be plannedover the next weeks.13 inmates who were waiting processing for their transfer to prisons remain at large afterhaving escaped from two different detention centres in the capital city of Bogota. A total of 25inmates escaped, but after police investigations 12 of them were captured. The inmatessucceeded in escaping by beating the guards on duty and fled by climbing out the windows inthe early morning hours and then ran across the rooftops of neighbouring buildings.Overcrowding at the prisons likely led to the escapes.3 January The Colombian army have arrested a leading FARC ringleader in central-southwest region ofthe country. This event happens just a few days after the unilateral declaration of a ceasefirefrom the FARCs but which could end at any time if the army launches attacks on rebel units. Thearrested man is known as Richard and is allegedly the second in command of the FARC’s TeolioForero mobile column, which is an elite fighter unit. He was arrested after combat between thearmy and the FARC near Neiva, the capital of Huila.1 January Colombian drug enforcement agents seized 3.6 tons of marihuana hidden in a shipment ofspaghetti, flour and cooking oil in southwestern Colombia. The drug seizure was made inBetania, a stop located on the highway between Tulua and Buga in the province of Valle delCauca. The drug enforcement officers found the drug when they stopped and inspected a truckheading for the province of La Guajira. The truck driver’s papers were in order and he told theagents that he was hauling food products. However, agents noticed a strange and strong smellcoming from the vehicle. The search of the truck turned up 83 bags containing marihuana witha street value of 3.8 million pesos ($1.6 million).Ecuador22 January Ecuadorean and Peruvian authorities have established a roadmap in order to combat humantrafficking in accordance with a framework agreement that was signed in 2013 by the InteriorMinistries of both countries. The agreement includes training in investigation, training andprosecution of human trafficking and the protection of victims. The 2 countries agreed to170

Global Security Reportdevelop a bilateral protection protocol for human trafficking victims to ensure immediateprotection and attention and that the competent institutions can launch joint operations withthe police, prosecutors and other agencies. The agreement also establishes mechanisms forexchanging statistics, experiences and information for monitoring of police investigations.8 January Armed Amazon tribesmen briefly seized an Ecuadorian oilfield, halting the production beforeclashing with soldiers who reclaimed the facility. The tribesmen belonging to the Huaoranipeople were carrying blowpipes, spears and guns, and stormed the oilfield. The soldiers saidthey were “looting and damaging and paralysing production. » Six soldiers were woundedduring the clashes and seven Huaorani were arrested. The oilfield belongs to Petrobell, asubsidiary of a Brazilian group Sinergy located in the southeastern province of Pastaza.Government officials said that the military intervention was necessary in order to protectcivilians.Guyana31 January A Guyanese-born Canadian citizen and two Guyanese are currently in police custody after theywere caught trying o smuggle cocaine through Cheddi Jagan International Airport. A man, whoidentified himself as Kenneth Jones presented forged documents to the Ministry of ForeignAffairs to the Airport Duty Office stating that he was carrying out protocol duties for twoindividuals: Rohbina Basdeoram and Mahendra Ramsuchit. The two women, according to Jones,were relatives of a Government official. However, important security checks revealed the trio tobe impostors. They were expected to depart CJIA for Toronto. A powdery substance confirmedas cocaine was concealed in their luggage. The weight of the cocaine was estimated to be some20 pounds. CJIA is also carrying out an investigation into the incident.28 January After President Ramotar’s announcement of May 11 elections, coalition talks have openedbetween the country’s two main opposition parties with the main agenda items heavily focusedon agreement on candidates for the posts of president and prime minister. Another issue thatneeds to be addresses will be the allocation of places on the list of candidates to occupy theNational Assembly under the country’s list system of proportional representation. As thepresidential election process is now officially on-going, it is likely that internal conflicts willdecrease over the next few weeks.27 January Guyana authorities confiscated 193kg of cocaine from a navigation vessel. The navigation vesselleaving from Suriname, contained 193kg of cocaine on board. The operation involved theGuyana Revenue Authority, the Guyana Police Force and the Customs Anti-Narcotics Unit. Thedrug was concealed in a flat rack. The vessel was supposed to head to Spain. It is believed thatthe crew had no idea that drugs were hidden on board. The police forces are investigating thecase.24 January The European Union suspended part of the budget assistance to Guyana on the grounds thatPresident Ramotar’s suspension of parliament has left the nation without adequate supervisionof state spending. The European Union, in a statement from its office in Guyana, said that thelatest payments on 2 on-going aid programs, providing 28,9 million euros for the sugar sectorand 14,8 million for Guyana sea defenses, were being frozen. The statement says: “The latestpartial payments related to these two programs have been temporarily put on hold until alleligibility criteria, inter alia budget oversight, are satisfactorily addressed. » Neither Guyana’sForeign Ministry nor Finance Ministry responded to calls seeking comment. President Ramotaron Tuesday called a parliamentary election for May 11.16 January Guyana has labelled its British High Commissioner a “pariah” after he suggested the UK couldwithdraw development aid over President Donald Ramotar’s suspension of Parliament. InNovember he took the rare constitutional move of proroguing parliament to avoid a noconfidencevote. This move was qualified as a threat to democracy. President Ramotar insiststhe measure is constitutional, and his government has described British High CommissionerAndrew Ayre’s comments on the issue as an infringement of sovereignty.171

Global Security Report14 January The Commonwealth announced that it might impose sanctions on Guyana for its failure to holdlong-delayed local government elections and lift the now two-month-old suspension ofParliament. The British High Commissioner in Guyana, Andrew Ayre said that: “Guyana ismoving into a category of concern for the Commonwealth. That is quite clear from discussionsthat take place in London. » Asked about the likelihood of sanctions, he said: « there is a cleardanger of that and the suspension of parliament on the 10th of November and the fact that it hasnot been resumed since then is a clear breach of the Commonwealth Charter and breach ofGuyana’s constitution. »7 January The government of Guyana announced its plan to boost its police force by 1,500 officers in orderto help reduce killings and increase security in gold-mining areas. Clement Rohee, the SecurityMinister said that 130 killings were reported last year, compared to less than 100 in the previousyear. The country’s Miners Association had already complained about the lack of police officersand equipment to help patrol large swaths of land where numerous mines operate.Authorities of Guyana reported the discovery of $13 million worth of cocaine aboard a ship thathad just arrived from the neighbour country of Suriname. The director of the anti-narcotics unitsannounced that police officers have so far estimated 1,400 kg aboard the Cyprus-registered shipcalled “The Delta Diedre”. The ship’s crew is currently detained at the police custody.4 January In the perspective of strengthening their internal security, Guyana is now issuing new passportswith improved safety features after seizing fraudulent ones in recent months. Security MinisterClement Rohee said that the government has signed a deal with a Canadian Bank Note Company,which already produces passports.Paraguay30 January Paraguayan authorities declared the discovery of dead German couple found on a cattle farm innorthern Paraguay, it was likely at the hands of a guerrilla group that earlier in the weekdemanded the owner of the farm to pay $3000,000 and give food to the poor. The German couplehad been taken away along with four workers on their farm. According to the four workers whomanaged to escape: “the captors wore camouflage uniforms and were apparently directed byEsteban Marin, a member of the criminal Paraguayan People's Army. » Both of the Germanswere shot in the back with a handgun.20 January President Horacio Cartes has called for stiff penalties against police officers accused of stealingconfiscated drugs. Francisco de Vargas, Interior Minister said that: “We discussed theseriousness of the situation in depth with President Cartes and we have clear orders to imposestiff penalties that will serve as an example to dissuade others.” A seizure of 252kg of cocainethat was seized on January 11 was confirmed stolen on Saturday from the police headquartersin the department of Amambay. Three deputy officials who were on duty at the time of therobbery have been arrested, but so far, they have refused to make any statements. One of themhas been on the force for some 17 years. It is believed that they have been paid from $100,000to $250,000 in order to transfer the cocaine from the police headquarters to a car. PresidentCartes has acknowledged drug trafficking is a serious problem in the country and pledged tofight the source of this issue.16 January Paraguayan authorities announced that a total of 80 Taiwanese people allegedly working in theillegal-gambling trade have been detained in custody by police officers. The 23 women and 57men are believed to have been illegally exploited as workers in a drug- and human-traffickingring. Alfredo Acosta, the prosecutor in charge of the investigation said: “They lived closed-in,cramped and exploited; they were exhausted and disoriented. We are assuming that they wereworking in online Chinese betting. Their work schedule was during the night and early morning,exactly business hours in China. » Police officers are currently seeking those responsible forbringing the illegal workers to Paraguay. One suspect, Ching Waing Lang, 35-years-old, has beenarrested. Police raided 2 houses located in Ciudad del Este, on the border with Brazil, wherethey found the Taiwanese workers, who were using computers and various IT devices in172

Global Security Reportcramped conditions. Acosta said: “They were even likely forced to take certain drugs to stayawake at certain hours. »15 January Paraguayan’s National Anti-Drug Secretariat (SENAD) reported the seizure of a plane withinthe framework of a special operation in the country’s northern department of Concepcion. TheSENAD seized a single-engine Cessna 206 plane with more than 350kg of cocaine on board. Theplane was detained at one of the illegal airfields that are used by the drug dealers. TwoParaguayan passengers and two Bolivian pilots as well as the owner of the estate, which waslocated on the territory of the illegal airport, were detained.11 January A Paraguayan Municipal Counsellor was arrested during an operation by police officers inwhich he was found with almost a ton of marihuana. Patricio Estigarrabia, 43-years-old,Municipal Counsellor of the city of Villga Ygatimi, located 500km from Asuncion, was arrestedduring a police raid at his home in which they found 959,7 kilos of marihuana. The drug has astreet value of $30.000 and was destined to Brazil.8 January One of the well-known leader of the Armed Peasants Group, a faction that broke off from theParaguayan People’s Army, guerrilla group, and a suspected 15-year-old rebel died in a shootoutwith the security forces in the city of Concepcion, a province located in northern Paraguay.Albino Jara, best known as Commander Milciades Leon, and the teenage girl, identified asRosalba Moraez, died in a shootout with members of the Joint Task Force created to fight theguerrillas. The clash started when security forces surprised a rebel column in a forested sectionof the Horqueta district. Five other rebels managed to escape but some of them may be seriouslywounded. They are currently searching for the escaped rebels.7 January Another reshuffle wave in key police stations in the northern province of Canindeyu seeks tobreak alleged links with drug traffickers. After the recent dismissal of a group of heads of policestations and substations, who were accused of receiving money in exchange for allowing thefree movement of marihuana loads to neighbouring countries, another 12 replacement havebeen reported for the same reason. New police chief of Canindeyu, Commissioner SilvioSolabarrieta, said he would continue working hard on purging the police because the Canindeyupopulation has been at the mercy of trafficking gangs. Some of the police stations where mainpositions were reshuffled are in the towns of Guavira, Santa Clara, Nueva Durando, Puente kyjha,Kumadacai, Curuguaty, Salto de Guaira, La Paloma, Britez Cua, Acepar and Pindoty Pora amongothers.Peru30 January A civilian aircraft pursued by Venezuelan military jets crashed into the Caribbean Sea near theisland of Aruba. Aruba’s justice minister Arthur Dowers, said that he was waiting forconfirmation from Venezuela about whether the jet has fired on the airplane before it wentdown. Officials in Aruba are investigating the cause of the crash. Investigators have foundseveral body parts, wreckage and packages of what appeared to be drugs at the crash scene.Officials said the man was identified as Leamsy Salazar, who was a military deserter.27 January Thousands of demonstrators against Venezuela’s economic crisis took the streets again in thecapital city; they banged pots and demanded an end to President Maduro’s term. Oppositionleaders called on for demonstrations as they are fed up with food shortages. It is likely that moredemonstrations will happen in the next few weeks until a concrete solution is proposed toVenezuelans.Venezuela30 January A civilian aircraft pursued by Venezuelan military jets crashed into the Caribbean Sea near theisland of Aruba. Aruba’s justice minister Arthur Dowers, said that he was waiting forconfirmation from Venezuela about whether the jet has fired on the airplane before it wentdown. Officials in Aruba are investigating the cause of the crash. Investigators have found173

Global Security Reportseveral body parts, wreckage and packages of what appeared to be drugs at the crash scene.Officials said the man was identified as Leamsy Salazar, who was a military deserter.27 January Thousands of demonstrators against Venezuela’s economic crisis took the streets again in thecapital city; they banged pots and demanded an end to President Maduro’s term. Oppositionleaders called on for demonstrations as they are fed up with food shortages. It is likely that moredemonstrations will happen in the next few weeks until a concrete solution is proposed toVenezuelans.17 January New violent demonstrations occurred in the Venezuelan city of San Cristobal as masked youthsonce again blocked streets and burned tires. The groups are small and the unrest contained, butdissent is currently rising in this volatile Andean city, a barometer of frustration withnationwide shortages that are putting pressure on the socialist government of PresidentMaduro. Students, who also accuse the government of corruption and repression, arethreatening to unleash larger demonstrations again.16 January Venezuelan authorities detained 13 police officers for alleged corruption. The government ofPresident Maduro demonstrated again its commitment to combating corruption in the policeforces of the country. The police officers belonged to the Body of Scientific and CriminalInvestigations, suspected of carrying out extortion acts on local businesses in El Valle, a districtlocated near the capital Caracas. The authorities responsible for the investigation included thePresidential Commission for the transformation of the Police System, the Attorney General if theRepublic, and the Public Ministry. A raid that was launched on the headquarters of the CICPCfound a local businessman locked up for 48 hours, as well as a stolen truck linked to the crimes.The investigation was also grounded on multiple complaints filed by residents about complicitybetween this police institution and others criminal groups of the country.15 January Tensions in Venezuela are escalating while President Maduro is traveling abroad seeking helpfor the financially struggling country. A high-profile Venezuelan opposition party leader iscurrently calling for protests. In response, the socialist administration has deployed troops andimplemented a rationing system in order to control lines at government-run supermarkets. Theleader calling for protest is Henrique Capriles, who nearly won the presidential elections againstMaduro in 2013. President Maduro has been out of the country since one week, visiting Chinaand members of OPEC to push for a cut in output.13 January In Venezuela, a plunge in oil prices, which are the country’s main export, has turned a goodsshortage problem into an unmitigated national disaster. Venezuelans can wait in grocery-storelines for days to find products that may no even be on the shelves. Yvan Jose Bello Rojas,Venezuela’s Food Minister said that “the shortage problem was not due to an unbalancedVenezuelan economy manipulated by government price regulation and bloated by governmentspending, but due to issues with distribution. » The food situation in the country engendersviolence and clashes with police officers. At least a dozen of protesters against food shortageshave been arrested by police officers. It is likely that other clashes and demonstration are goingto occur in the next few weeks.11 January Eight vehicles of the Venezuelan state telephone company called CANTV were destroyed by abomb launched by unknown people before dawn in a parking lot located in the northern city ofPuerto Ordaz. The Attorney General’s Office said that the attack was perpetrated around 3:00a.m. by a group of people who launched an explosive device in the company’s installations thatset fire to 8 vehicles. Security agents of the CANTV, investigative police and the Sebin intelligenceservice seek to determine the responsibilities in this attack against the telephone company.10 January Seven people were killed and five wounded by gunmen who opened fire at them during a burial.The shooting took place in the old cemetery of the town of Turmero. The attorney general’soffice said that: “Several armed men fired against a group of people at the funeral of a friend whohad died days earlier,” the incident is described as a clash between rival gangs as one of themburied one of its members. The rival gang members were hiding in the cemetery until the arrivalof the dead man’s relatives, and then opened fire, as the burial got under way.174

Global Security Report8 January A quantity of cocaine worth £55million has been recovered from a wrecked plane that wentmissing over the Andes. More than 362 packets were found over 14,000ft Mountains inVenezuela. It is believed that the Mexican plane crashed as the pilot was flying low to avoid radardetection on November 5. Richard Lopez, military chief said that: “Venezuela was not the finaldestination of theses drugs.” President Maduro had previously warned that any drug planeentering Venezuela’s airspace would be shot down. Human remains thought to be those ofunnamed 38-year-old Mexican pilot working for an international drugs trafficking gang werealso discovered in the wrecked plane.4 January Almost two weeks after the signature of the legislation to impose sanctions on Venezuelanofficials accused of violating Human Rights, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and VenezuelanPresident Nicolas Maduro met on New Year’s Eve in Brazil, shook hands and expressed theirdesire for restored ties. According to a U.S administration official, Maduro told Biden that hewants to improve U.S – Venezuela ties, but is concerned about the sanctions. New changes inU.S.-Venezuelan relationships are to be waited in the coming weeks.CaribbeanHaiti25 January The Haitian government has urged the United Nations Security Council against downsizing itstroops’ presence ahead of the crucial elections. Haitian Justice Minister Pierre-Richard Casimirmade the request to visiting UN envoys from the council’s member countries as they began anofficial visit to the country. He told Council members that “in Haiti, like elsewhere, the electoralperiod is sometimes marked by tension and discord,” highlighting UN Security CouncilResolution 2180, which calls for the UN to adapt its troop presence to the situation on theground, however he stressed that the Haitian government was taking all the necessary measuresin order to ensure the elections go smoothly. Asked about the request, Chile’s envoy ChristianBarros Melet, who holds the rotating presidency of the council, stated that it was too early forthe international peace and security body to make a decision. US envoy Samantha Power didhowever note that Haitian national police had improved and increased its ranks. In October2014, the Council renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate for a year, however it halved its force to 2,370soldiers due to improved security conditions.23 January On Friday, officials installed a Provisional Electoral Council, a key step towards averting aconstitutional crisis after weeks of protests and political uncertainty. The swearing in of thenine-member council, which represents different sectors of society, took place at the SupremeCourt shortly before the United Nations Security Council mission was due to arrive in Haiti.Representatives of the 15-member Council will begin a three-day mission on Friday that will beled by the US and Chile. In a statement released Friday, the Council disclosed that the missionwas intended to reaffirm support for the government and people of Haiti, and to “urge Haiti’spolitical actors to work cooperatively and without further delay to ensure the holding of free,fair, inclusive and transparent…elections.”19 January Amidst continued protests calling for the president’s resignation, President Martelly hasannounced the formation of a new government. Following Friday’s anti-governmentdemonstrations in the capital city, President Martelly told demonstrators that he had reached adeal with the opposition in order to form a consensus government within 48 hours. Thepresident has listed eighteen ministers and sixteen secretaries of state who will be sworn in onMonday. While he chose to keep several current cabinet members in their posts, including theministers for foreign affairs, defense, public works, health, tourism and education, he appointedsome of his allies to key positions, including new Planning Minister Yves Germain Joseph andSecretary of State for Public Security Carel Alexandre. Update (20 January) - While eighteenministers and sixteen secretaries of state were sworn in Monday at the National Palace in thecapital city, opposition leaders have accused the president of failing to deliver in forming aconsensus government. According to former Senate president Simon Desras, “there is not a realopening as promised,” noting that only one opposition member made the cabinet list. He further175

Global Security Reportindicated that “this isn’t solving the crisis and, worst, its bringing more problems,” adding thatthe choice of Carel Alexandre as head of public security was especially “worrying.” Sources haveindicated that Alexandre was the former chief of security at the presidential palace until he wasforced out in 2012 under pressure from human rights groups. The new planning minister, YvesGermain Joseph, is a former senior palace official who was close to late dictator Jean-ClaudeDuvalier, who died last year. Prime Minister Evans Paul, a former mayor of Port-au-Prince,heads Haiti’s new government.16 January Several thousand supporters of Haitian opposition factions marched through the capital callingfor the president’s removal amidst uncertainty in the wake of the dissolution of parliament.Protesters passed through a number of neighborhoods around downtown Port-au-Prince asthey built up their numbers on their way towards the former National Palace. They have calledthe demonstration “Operation Burkina Faso,” named for the West African country where anOctober 2014 uprising toppled the country’s president who had been in power for 27 years. Themarch is the latest in a series of demonstrations demanding President Michel Martelly leaveoffice before his term ends next year. Demonstrators were dispersed by riot police using teargas and water sprayed from armored vehicles near barricades that were set up in order toprevent marchers from reaching the palace site’s gates. Shortly after the protesters scattered,President Martelly gave a speech on the grounds of the former palace, stating that a consensusgovernment would be announced in the next 48 hours. He further indicated that a new electoralcouncil would be put in place before the end of the week and would immediately beginorganizing the long-delayed legislative and municipal elections.13 January Haiti’s parliament was dissolved Tuesday after the failure of last-ditch negotiations for a deal toextend the terms of its members to avert a political crisis. President Michel Martelly hadlaunched last-minute negotiations, which failed to convince a group of opposition senators toapprove a US-sanctioned plan to extend parliamentary terms for several months until electionscan be held. Haiti has not held legislative or municipal elections for three years. The lack of aworking parliament effectively leaves the president to rule by decree. On Tuesday, the UnitedNations “Core Group,” which includes countries such as the US, Brazil, Canada, and the EuropeanUnion, all of whom are working closely with Haiti, issued a statement indicating it “deplores thefact that the Haitian parliament has become dysfunctional,” while offering its support to thepresident. Last month, the Haitian president, whose term in office ends next year, attempted tocalm opposition critics by appointing former Port-au-Prince Mayor Evans Paul as the new primeminister. Parliament however refused to ratify the selection.11 January Late Sunday the country’s President and national lawmakers struck a last-minute agreement tohold new elections by late this year, a move that will defuse the political crisis in Haiti. Thesitting legislature in Haiti was due to reach the end of its mandate on Monday, and with no dateset for the elections, the situation would have likely created a political vacuum. Protesters haveaccused President Michel Martelly of tacitly allowing the legislature to expire in order to rule bydecree. In turn, the president has accused the opposition of blocking an electoral law that wouldallow a vote. However late on Sunday, the president and lawmakers finally reached a long-termagreement, agreeing to hold elections before the end of 2015 for two thirds of the Senate anddeputies, as well as for the president. Separately, in order to improve faith in the system, a newnine-member electoral council, which will include representatives of the Catholic church andProtestant churches, as well as the local voodoo belief system, farmers’ association, women’sand business groups, unions, the media and higher education – will be formed. Both sides haveagreed that neither government nor political parties will be part of the electoral council.10 January Protesters burned tires and threw rocks and glass bottles at riot police during another antigovernmentdemonstration that was held in the capital city on Saturday. On the ground sourceshave reported that the demonstration, which involved mostly young men, reached a peak ofabout 1,500 in downtown Port-au-Prince, with protesters calling for the departure of PresidentMichel Martelly. Police fired tear gas and sprayed water from an armored vehicle, scatteringthe crowd at a plaza located near to where the National Palace stood before it collapsed in the2010 earthquake.176

Global Security ReportMiddle EastBahrain31 January The government of Bahrain has revoked the nationality of 72 citizens on grounds of damagingnational security. It says that the measures have been implemented in part to "preserve securityand stability and fight the danger of terrorist threats". It is the largest number of Bahrainis to bestripped of their nationality since 2013, when the law was introduced to punish peopleconvicted of terrorism. Tensions have been high since elections in November were boycottedby the opposition, who said parliament lacked sufficient powers and that constituencyboundaries had been redrawn to favour their supporters. The list of citizens facing thispunishment includes the names of well-known Sunni and Shia Muslim families. This indicatesthat the move is not solely directed at eradicating long-running unrest among Bahrain's ShiaMuslim majority. The revocation policy has been strongly condemned by human rights groups.Previous citizenship revocations in recent years have been directed at activists abroad and inBahrain, who were afterwards told to leave the country. "The ruler of Bahrain revoked mycitizenship today without a court, any charges or clear evidence of why," British-based Bahrainiblogger and activist Ali Abdulemam wrote on Twitter. Bahrain's governing al-Khalifa familyused martial law and assistance from its neighbours in the Gulf to suppress a Shia uprising in2011, but the unrest has persisted and protesters and police often clash.28 January Bahrain's top opposition leader went on trial on Wednesday on charges of promoting the violentoverthrow of the political system, a case that has riled his followers and inflamed unrest in theSunni-ruled Gulf Arab state. Sheikh Ali Salman's detention after a protest rally in Decembersparked violent demonstrations in Bahrain, with protesters throwing iron bars and stones atsecurity forces who fired tear gas, rubber bullets and bird shot. Appearing in court onWednesday, Salman denied all the charges and said he had been calling for reforms in Bahrainthrough legal and peaceful means, according to defence team member Mohamed Ahmed. SheikhSalman also said he had conveyed this position to King Hamad and Crown Prince Salman inperson, according to Ahmed. The prosecution has accused Salman of promoting the overthrowof the political regime by force, inciting violence against the kingdom and supporting attacksthat caused the deaths of 14 policemen. If convicted, he faces up to 10 years in jail underBahraini law. He also faces three other, lesser charges, including inciting hatred and insultingthe Interior Ministry. The court adjourned until February 25 and ordered Salman to remain injail, rejecting the defence team's request to release him until the next hearing, his lawyers said.Since the authorities quelled the 2011 revolt with Saudi support and help from other memberstates of the Gulf Cooperation Council but sporadic unrest has continued. Bahrain has seen anincrease in bomb attacks on the security forces. At least two people were killed in two separateattacks last month.21 January Nabeel Rajab, one of Bahrain’s best-known human rights activists, was sentenced to six monthsin jail Tuesday after being found guilty of insulting government ministries on Twitter. Rajab canremain free on bail for now as he appeals his case, said his lawyer, Jalila al-Sayed. But he isunable to leave the tiny island kingdom, which has been roiled by nearly four years of unrest ledby its majority Shiites calling for greater political rights from the Sunni leadership. Rajabbelieves authorities are using court cases to try to prevent him from pushing for greater rightsin the country. “Jailing every human rights advocate will not stop us,” he said. Rajab was chargedin October with insulting the Defence and Interior ministries over tweets alleging that Bahrain’ssecurity institutions were incubators for extremist ideology. His comments followed the releaseof a video purportedly showing four Bahrainis who joined ISIS calling on countrymen to take uparms against the tiny island country’s Sunni monarchy and majority Shiite population. One ofthe militants was an officer who defected from Bahrain’s Interior Ministry. Rajab is head of theBahrain Centre for Human Rights and is active in other advocacy groups. He has been detained177

Global Security Reportand prosecuted over Twitter comments in the past. He was released from prison last May afterspending nearly two years behind bars. He had been convicted on charges of encouraging“illegal gatherings” tied to anti-government protests.19 January Human Rights Watch has urged Bahrain's Western allies to press the kingdom to releasedetained activists, including a Shiite opposition leader whose arrest has sparked protests andcondemnation. Sheikh Ali Salman, head of the influential Al-Wefaq bloc, has remained in custodysince authorities arrested him on 28 December on charges including seeking regime change."When it comes to punishing peaceful critics of the government or ruling family, Bahrain is aserial offender," said HRW's deputy Middle East North Africa director Joe Stork. Salman's arrest"seems calculated to send a message to Bahrainis and the world that political reconciliation andrespect for fundamental rights is completely off the table," said Stork. HRW said that authoritieshave so far failed to release evidence against Salman, urging his immediate release and callingfor charges against him to be dropped. Prosecutors allege that Salman confessed to contactingforeign governments and political groups abroad, some of whom had "expressed readiness" tointerfere in Bahrain's affairs. Iran, which condemned Salman's arrest, has been accused ofinterfering in Bahrain since its Sunni ruling family repressed pro-democracy protests led by Al-Wefaq in 2011 seeking an elected government in the kingdom.16 January Bahraini authorities arrested suspects who have returned from Syria and are allegedly linkedto “terrorist” groups, the interior ministry said. Bahrain is among the countries that have joinedthe international coalition against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. Bahrain’s interior ministry announcedin the statement that authorities have arrested “a group of people who were recently in Syriaand are suspected of contacts with terrorist groups abroad.” It said that investigations wereongoing, without giving further details. Sunni militants have flocked to Syria to support therebels, while Shiite fighters — mainly from Lebanon and Iraq — support President Bashar AlAssad’s forces. The Syrian conflict “has attracted some Bahraini citizens,” the interior ministryacknowledged in February last year.Hundreds of Shiite protesters have taken to the streets of Bahrain, demanding the release of thejailed leader of the country's largest opposition group. Police blocked the main roads,preventing the marchers from getting access to a major highway. The protest started afterFriday prayers. Some of the protesters threw Molotov cocktails at the policemen, whoresponded by firing tear gas and birdshot. Many protesters carried posters of Sheik Ali Salman,head of the al-Wefaq opposition group who has been jailed for three weeks, accused of incitingviolence and calling for the overthrow of the nation's Sunni-led monarchy.6 January Several people were injured when demonstrators clashed with Bahraini security forces inManama during protests over the detention of a prominent opposition leader. Western-alliedBahrain has been dogged by political tensions since security forces quelled 'Arab Spring'protests in 2011. Bahrain's majority Shi'ite Muslims have demanded reforms and a bigger sharein government in the Sunni-ruled kingdom. The discontent has worsened since the arrest onDec. 28 of Sheikh Ali Salman, a Shi'ite Muslim cleric who heads the al-Wefaq Islamic Society,after he led a protest rally against last November's elections, which were boycotted by theopposition. Witnesses said protest marches by young men and women in Sheikh Salman'sdistrict of the capital, al-Balad al-Qadeem, turned violent, with security forces firing bird-shotand tear gas at the demonstrators. Young men attacked security forces with iron rods and bricks.One eyewitness said he saw a tear gas canister hit one demonstrator in the leg. Al-Wefaq said"dozens of protesters were injured" by the security forces. The Interior Ministry said it waschecking the reports. The public prosecutor accuses Sheikh Salman of several offences,including inciting people to overthrow the government. The prosecutor remanded SheikhSalman on Sunday for 15 days pending further investigation. The U.S. State Department hascriticized Salman's detention, saying it could further stoke political tensions in Bahrain.178

Global Security ReportIran16 January Iran, its oil exports curbed by sanctions, is lowering the crude price for this year’s budget to $40a barrel as the energy slump affects governments and industry. The government is revising itsdraft budget to assume a base price of $40, from $72, according to Finance and EconomyMinister Ali Tayebnia. The minister said some projects will have to be halted. Prices of Brent, abenchmark for more than half the world’s oil, have dropped about 50 percent in the past year,forcing governments to reduce subsidies on diesel, natural gas and utilities and companies tocut billions from capital budgets. Qatar Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell Plc called off plans tobuild a $6.5 billion petrochemical plant. “Most Gulf countries are pricing $50 oil for 2015,” saidNaeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Dublin-based Avatrade Ltd. in a phone interview fromDubai. “Creditors want to be sure they recoup their money so there could be hesitation tostarting up new projects.” Iran President Hassan Rouhani presented a budget to lawmakers onDec. 7 based on $72 oil. Since then, Brent crude has dropped about 30 percent. It budgeted $100oil last year. Iraq, the second-biggest member of OPEC, is using $60 in its budget. Saudi Arabia,the biggest producer, is probably assuming $80. Kuwait has proposed basing its 2015-16 budgeton oil at $45. Rouhani said that he expected oil prices at five-year lows to place “short-termpressure” on state revenue. Saudi Arabia has rebuffed calls from Iran and others in OPEC to cutoutput amid a struggle with U.S. shale producers for market share. Iran faces internationalsanctions on its energy industry over its nuclear program, with the European Union banningimports of crude from the country. It produced 2.77 million barrels a day of oil in December,down from an average of 3.58 million in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.7 January The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) has started the mass production of the indigenousSaeqeh (Thunderbolt) fighter jets. A spokesman for the IRIAF announced that the indigenouslydeveloped fighter jet “has already gone through mass production.” Brigadier General HosseinChitforoush said the IRIAF has built squadrons of Saeqeh and they are “going through theirevolutionary process.” Chitforoush said the fighter is continuously conducting reconnaissancemissions across Iran. The new fighter jet will bring Iran to the level of self-sufficiency in the field.IRIAF will upgrade the bomber in case the needs of the armed forces change in future. Saeqehwas unveiled as a prototype in 2004 and later became operational in 2006. The jet is Iran’ssecond domestically-developed fighter with many calling it the Iranian F-18. The bomber hasthe ability to track down enemy aircraft, engage in combat, target locations on the ground, andcarry a load of assorted weapons and ammunition. In the recent years, Iran has made greatachievements in the defence sector and gained self-sufficiency in essential military hardwareand defence systems. The country has repeatedly announced that its defence might does notpose any threat to other countries as Iran's defence doctrine is totally based on deterrence.5 January Three would-be ISIS fighters armed with explosives were arrested as they tried to cross Iran'sborder into Iraq, Brigadier General Qasem Rezaei of Iran's border police said. They were caughtas they attempted to slip across the north-western border at night. "The three people hadillegally crossed into Iran through one of it porous borders with the intention of crossing overto Iraq," he was quoted as saying, adding that border police "have the technological visual andelectronic capabilities of monitoring cross border movements" at night. No further details wereimmediately available. The advance of ISIS in Iraq and Syria has created a common enemy forIran and the United States. Tehran remains at diplomatic odds with Washington and joint actionhas been ruled out, but Iranian forces are separately fighting extremists inside Iraq even as theU.S. and its allies carry out airstrikes. A high-ranking Iranian officer was last week killed in theIraqi city of Samara.3 January Iran and the U.S. have tentatively agreed on a formula that Washington hopes will reduceTehran's ability to make nuclear arms by committing it to ship to Russia much of the materialneeded for such weapons. Negotiators at the December round of nuclear talks drew up for thefirst time a catalos outlining areas of potential accord and differing approaches to remainingdisputes. Differences still dominate ahead of the next round of Iran-six power talks on January15 in Geneva. But they suggested that even agreement to create a to-do list would have beendifficult previously because of wide gaps between the sides. Iran denies it wants nuclear arms,179

Global Security Reportbut it is negotiating with the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany on cuts to itsatomic program in hope of ending crippling sanctions. The talks have been extended twice dueto stubborn disagreements. The main conflict is over uranium enrichment, which can createboth reactor fuel and the fissile core of nuclear arms. In seeking to reduce Iran's bomb-makingability, the U.S. has proposed that Tehran export much of its stockpile of enriched uranium —something the Islamic Republic has long said it would not do. Both sides in the talks are stillarguing about how much of an enriched uranium stockpile to leave Iran. Negotiators hope toreach a rough deal by March and a final agreement by June 30.1 January Iran has entered into a formal agreement with Iraq to help rebuild its depleted military in theface of continued aggression from ISIS. Iraqi Defence Minister Khaled al-Obaidi met with IranianDefence Minister Hossein Dahqan in Tehran Tuesday to finalize details and sign the agreement.Details on the agreement were scant, but Iraq and Iran “agreed to continue cooperation in thedefence arena with the creation of a national army to protect the territorial integrity andsecurity of Iraq.” Iran has been training and equipping Iraqi Shiite militias to combat the IslamicState since the summer, when the Sunni Muslim extremist group’s offensive into northern Iraqled to mass desertion in the Iraqi regular army. The Islamic State gained control of vast tracts ofterritory in Iraq and Syria and maintains control over the major Iraqi city of Mosul. A general inIran’s Revolutionary Guard was killed recently by sniper fire in the Iraqi city of Samarra whiletraining troops, according to Iranian state media. Iran sent combat troops to Iraq earlier thisyear to aid in defence of Shiite holy sites. The reinforcements were sent after a request by Iraq’sShiite-dominated government.Iraq31 January Kurdish Peshmerga forces retook a small crude oil station near the northern Iraqi city of Kirkukwhich Islamic State insurgents seized earlier on Saturday, but the fate of 15 employeesremained unclear. ISIS insurgents seized a small crude oil station near the northern Iraqi cityKirkuk where 15 employees were working. Two officials from the state-run North Oil Companyconfirmed the militants seized a crude oil separation unit in Khabbaz and said 15 oil workerswere missing after the company lost contact with them. "We received a call from one of theworkers saying dozens of Daesh [ISIS] fighters were surrounding the facility and asking workersto leave the premises. We lost contact and now the workers might be taken hostage," anengineer from the North Oil Co told Reuters, using a derogatory acronym for Islamic State. ISISmilitants seized at least four small oilfields when it overran large areas of northern Iraq lastsummer, and began selling crude oil and gasoline to finance their operations. Islamic Stateinsurgents attacked regional Kurdish forces southwest of Kirkuk on Friday, seizing some areasincluding parts of the Khabbaz oilfields. Kurdish Peshmerga forces sought to push back IslamicState in further fighting near Khabbaz on Saturday, Kurdish military sources said. Khabbaz is asmall oilfield 20 km (12 miles) southwest of Kirkuk with a maximum production capacity of15,000 barrels per day. It was producing around 10,000 bpd before the attack. Islamic State hasdeclared a medieval-style caliphate in parts of Iraq and Syria to rule over all Muslims, and itposes the biggest challenge to the stability of OPEC member Iraq since the fall of SaddamHussein in 2003.For the first time since the US-led coalition began its war against ISIS, the US military claims tohave killed a senior ISIS militant in an airstrike near Mosul. The militant, identified by US CentralCommand only as Abu Malik, is said to have been a chemical weapons expert for ISIS and aveteran of the former Iraq dictator Saddam Hussein’s illicit weapons programs. CentralCommand has never before identified a militant it has killed. The Pentagon claims to have killed6,000 ISIS fighters since the August airstrikes began, but officials have downplayed claims theyare specifically targeting ISIS leadership figures, raising questions about the degree of visibilitythe US has into the group. Central Command claimed Abu Malik was a “chemical weaponsengineer” at the Muthanna chemical weapons plant who joined an earlier incarnation of ISIS, al-Qaeda in Iraq, in 2005. “His death is expected to temporarily degrade and disrupt the terroristnetwork and diminish ISIS’s ability to potentially produce and use chemical weapons againstinnocent people,” Central Command said. ISIS has been said to fabricate crude chemical bombs180

Global Security Reportthat do not qualify as chemical weapons. Kurdish forces fighting ISIS outside the Syrian city ofKobane in October reported seeing blisters emerge on their skin and experiencing vomiting andrespiratory impairment, symptoms consistent with but not definitively indicative of chemicalexposure. The Iraqi government has also claimed ISIS used chlorine gas against policemen. InJune, ISIS forces took control of Muthanna, a complex formerly crucial to Saddam’s chemicalweapons production and where decrepit chemical warheads are believed to be buried. ThePentagon believes ISIS does not have access to those weapons. The location of the lethal strike,in Mosul, is significant as well. Retaking Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, will potentially be adecisive battle for eradicating ISIS in Iraq. Mosul has been in ISIS’s uncontested control sinceJune.30 January The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) Islamist group killed a senior Kurdish commander andfive other fighters on Friday in a major attack in Iraq’s Kirkuk province, an officer and a doctorsaid. The ISIS assault on areas south and west of the northern city of Kirkuk began at aroundmidnight, sparking fighting with medium and heavy weapons that was still ongoing Fridaymorning. Brigadier General Shirko Rauf and five other members of the Kurdish Peshmergaforces were killed in clashes, while 46 more were wounded. The Kirkuk province securitycommittee announced a curfew beginning at 10:00 am (0700 GMT) on Friday, saying it will bein effect until further notice.27 January Kurdish forces have reclaimed the city of Kobane from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant(ISIL), according to Kurdish sources. A campaign was launched to push ISIL out of the nearly350 villages surrounding the iconic northern Syrian town, local officials say. Losing Kobane aftermore than four months of intense fighting is a significant propaganda blow to ISIL. The groupinvested extensive military resources to capture the isolated town on the border with Turkey."Daesh [ISIL] took most of the places it wanted in Syria and Iraq but could not capture Kobane,"said Anwar Muslim, the prime minister of the self-ruled administration of Kobane, referring tothe organisation by its Arabic name. "This victory marks the beginning of the end for Daesh."Kurdish forces have so far taken control of at least three villages in the southern surroundingsof Kobane. It will be a highly challenging task for them to expel ISIL from the dozens of villagesthat dot the plains around the agricultural town.26 January Canadian Special Operations troops have engaged Islamic State militants in Iraq in firefights atleast three times in recent days while training Kurdish troops, a turn of events that has raisedquestions about how the military advising mission in Iraq may be evolving. A week after anannouncement that Canadian forces had engaged in their first firefight in Iraq, Navy Capt. PaulForget said they had fired on Islamic State militants twice more in recent days. In each case,Canadian officials have said, their troops have only opened fired after coming under attack. “Inboth cases, Canadian Special Operations forces, again acting in self-defence, effectively returnedfire, neutralizing the threat,” Forget said Monday. The incidents, however, illustrate how closeCanadian forces are coming to enemy fighters. Canadian troops are now engaged in guidingbombs toward targets with laser guidance, a level of involvement that is not believed to havebeen authorized by U.S. commanders. Most of the airstrikes are carried out by U.S. aircraft,although a variety of partner nations also involved. Gen. Tom Lawson, chief of Canada’s defencestaff, said in a statement last week that the situation on the ground in Iraq had evolved since thecountry deployed more forces in October. Canada has increased its assistance to Iraq to guideairstrikes “in direct correlation with an increased threat” Iraqi troops are facing, he said."Sleeper cells" made up of former Iraqi police officers and soldiers are tipping off authorities toIslamic State group positions in the northern city of Mosul. The comments, made by Hakim al-Zamili, the head of parliament's security and defence committee, are the first high-levelconfirmation of the groups' existence after weeks of rumours. Their work remains incrediblydangerous as the Islamic State group has shut down mobile phone networks and regularly killssuspected government collaborators. However, their intelligence could prove invaluable as theU.S.-led coalition steps up airstrikes around Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city, to disrupt IslamicState group supply lines ahead of an expected operation later this year to take back the militantheldcity. "Those patriotic groups, some operate from inside the city of Mosul and others from181

Global Security Reportthe areas surrounding it, are now giving us information about the military preparations beingmade by Islamic State group in order to face any attack by government forces to retake the city,"al-Zamili said. The Islamic State group captured Mosul in June during its blitz across northernIraq. The militants now hold about a third of both Iraq and neighbouring Syria in its selfdeclaredcaliphate.22 January The U.S.-led coalition could take up to two years to expel Islamic State from Iraq, and Baghdad'sown forces will be incapable of proper combat operations for months, Britain's foreign ministerwarned on Thursday. Speaking before he hosted a meeting of 21 coalition members in London,Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said the task of pushing the Islamist militants back wouldbe slow. “This isn't going to be done in three months or six months. It's going to take a year, twoyears to push ISIL (IS) back out of Iraq but we are doing the things that need to be done in orderto turn the tide.” Thursday's meeting, attended by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and IraqiPrime Minister Haider al-Abadi, will examine ways of intensifying the campaign against IS inSyria, Iraq and elsewhere by doing more militarily, more to cut off the group's finances and moreto stem the flow of foreign fighters. Kerry said before the meeting it was a vital opportunity toadjust the coalition's strategy. “The purpose of coming here is to bring everybody's best advice,everybody's thoughts about where there may be weaknesses, everybody's thoughts aboutthings we can do better, put that together, improve our own performance and operations, andlay down the strategy for the days ahead,” he said. Iraq's Abadi, who will tell delegates how hisgovernment's fight against ISIS is progressing, met British Prime Minister David Cameronbeforehand and asked for more military training and ammunition.18 January Islamist militants freed about 250 Yazidis held captive for more than six months in Iraq. Most ofthose released Saturday were children and the elderly, said Saman Jabari, the KurdistanDemocratic Party leader. Once they were freed, they walked up to a Peshmerga checkpointsouthwest of the city of Kirkuk, according to Jabari. They are now under the care of Kurdishauthorities. Yazidis are among Iraq's smallest minorities. They are of Kurdish descent, and theirreligion is considered a pre-Islamic sect that draws from Christianity, Judaism andZoroastrianism. The militant group ISIS, which calls itself the Islamic State, steamrolled intoIraq's north last year, forcing hundreds of thousands of minorities from their homes. The U.S.State Department estimates that 500,000 Yazidis live in northern Iraq, accounting for less than1% of the country's population.11 January Iraq may need three years to rebuild and restructure its military, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadisaid on Sunday, as the country battles Islamic State militants who pose the biggest threat to itssecurity since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Corruption is widely blamed for the nearcollapse of the army, which received billions of dollars in support from the United States duringthe American occupation but has failed to stabilize Iraq, a major OPEC oil producer. Abadiacknowledged that creating a more effective army could be challenging while he fights IslamicState, seen as far more dangerous than al Qaeda, its predecessor in Iraq. "The most difficult thingis to restructure and build the army while you are in a state of war." Abadi said. "Our aim is tocreate a balance between both, restructuring the army in a way that will not impact the fighting."U.S.-led air strikes have helped Iraqi military forces and their Shi'ite militia allies as well asKurdish fighters seize back territory from Islamic State. But the militants' effective use of suicidebombers and improvised explosive devices often slow down government forces. "Restructuringthe army could take three years," said Abadi. "This does not mean that the fighting with IslamicState will last for three years." U.S. military officials say the conflict could last for years and thatdefeating the group hinges on Iraq's ability to create a more effective army.Iraq's Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi Sunday criticised the "slowness" of the US-ledinternational coalition against ISIS in providing military support to his army. A US-ledinternational coalition is conducting air raids against ISIS positions in both countries and isproviding military support to Iraqi forces. "The international coalition is very slow in its supportand training of the army" in Iraq, Abadi said at a meeting with a group of journalists during anofficial visit to Cairo. "This support is very slow, but in the last two weeks there has been anacceleration," he acknowledged, however, calling for a "further acceleration" in the assistance182

Global Security Reportprovided to the Iraqi army. US officials say the Iraqi government army is being trained andarmed to stage a major counter-offensive later in 2015, but in the meantime the internationalcoalition is using air raids to pile pressure on ISIS supply lines.Turkey will raise the number of custom gates with Iraq to four in order to feed the increasingdemand triggered by surging trade with its neighbour, Customs and Trade Minister NurettinCanikli has announced, despite the ongoing insurgency in Iraq. Iraq, one of the majordestinations for Turkish exporters, has been grappling with an extreme rise of violence sinceISIS seized swathe parts of the country, dashing a blow to Iraqi-Turkish trade. However,confident that the trade between countries is recovering in defiance of the ongoing chaos in Iraq,Canikli said projects are underway to open two new border gates, in addition to a completedgate, which raises the number of operating gates to two. “The Üzümlü border gate has begun itsoperations and Derecik gate will begin soon; while we are preparing to open the Ovaköy gate,”Canikli said. The Habur border gate, through which 1.6 million vehicles pass annually, has notbeen able to meet demands for trade between Iraq and Turkey, which now have a trade volumeworth $12 billion a year. Canikli also announced plans to construct a third bridge at the Haburgate have begun. He said the traffic volume at Habur had reached 4,000 vehicles daily and theauthorities expect this number to rise in defiance of the rising security concerns.Islamic State group fighters attempting to retake a town in northern Iraq held by KurdishPeshmerga forces have killed at least 30 Kurds. The battle for the town of Gwer demonstratesthe Islamic State group's ability to still launch offensives in Iraq, despite a campaign of airstrikesby a U.S.-led coalition. And while an alliance of Iraqi troops, Kurdish fighters and Sunni andShiite militiamen have made some gains, their advance remains tenuous at best. The fightingbegan Saturday as the extremists approached Gwer, just outside of the northern city of Mosul,which the Islamic State group controls, said Halgurd Hekmat, a spokesman for Iraqi Kurdishforces in Irbil. Hekmat said he had no information about casualties suffered by the Islamic Stategroup. Gwer sits near Irbil, the Kurdish regional capital. Retaking it would allow Islamic Stategroup fighters a new base to potentially launch assaults targeting the city.7 January Five mass graves containing the remains of some 320 people believed to have been killed byISIS have been found in the northern part of Iraq. Residents of areas on the southern andwestern edges of Iraqi city of Mosul, currently controlled by ISIS, discovered the graves that alsoincluded the bodies of children. They added that some body parts in the graves are deemed tobelong to members of Iraq’s Yazidi Kurds. Last month, Kurdish Peshmerga forces discoverednine mass graves containing the bodies of Yazidi victims in the north-western town of Sinjar.6 January The United States has donated 250 mine-resistant, armour-protected vehicles (MRAPs) to theIraqi army for use in its campaign against the Islamic State jihadist group, US ambassador StuartJones said Tuesday. "The number one threat to the Iraqi security forces are roadside bombs andvehicle-borne bombs," said Jones, whose country is leading a multinational coalition in airstrikes on IS in both Iraq and Syria. "These vehicles will save Iraqi lives and enable Iraqi securityforces to win the fight" against ISIS, he said in a statement. The statement did not give the costof the MRAPs, or say when they were to be delivered, but did say Washington gave Iraq $300million in weapons, materiel and training last year. This included 12,000 sets of body armour,Kevlar helmets and medical kits, as well as counter-IED (homemade bomb) equipment, andincluded vehicle maintenance, and tank and helicopter maintenance training. The United Stateswill also deliver 10,000 M16A2 assault rifles to the army early this year. The military aid comesunder the strategic framework agreement between the two countries.A suicide blast targeting Iraqi security forces and subsequent clashes with Islamic Stateextremists on Tuesday killed at least 23 troops and pro-government Sunni fighters in thecountry’s embattled western province of Anbar, officials said. The heavy toll for Iraqi forcescame as the government observed Army Day amid struggles in battles with the Islamic Stategroup and efforts to claw back territory lost to the extremists during the militants’ blitz last year.Police officials said a suicide bomber first struck a gathering of pro-government Sunni fightersnear the town of al-Baghdadi, about 110 miles northwest of Baghdad, in the morning hours.183

Global Security Report3 January Saudi Arabia will reopen its embassy in Iraq for the first time in 25 years. Saudi officials willtravel to the Iraqi capital of Baghdad this week to begin preparations so they can start building“at the earliest opportunity.” The move marks a major improvement in the once-rocky relationsbetween the Arab neighbours. Saudi Arabia closed the doors of its Baghdad embassy in 1990,after Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Saudi Arabia has long accused Iraq ofgetting too cosy with Iran and supporting sectarian discrimination against Sunnis. On a rollercoaster since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, tensions between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iranhave peaked and troughed. The two countries are regional rivals competing for leadership ofthe Islamic world, according to the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations. Saudi officials begana slow move toward rapprochement after Haider al-Abadi was appointed Iraq’s prime ministerin August. The Islamic State group in Iraq has also induced cooperation between the twocountries. “The Saudis think there is a gap now. If they leave Mr. Abadi without help, he will beforced to go to the Iranians,” Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi security analyst, said. “With the change ofleadership, change of circumstances, they think that it’s time to bring back Iraq ... to the Arabfold and to reduce the Iranian influence.” Saudi Arabia also plans to open a general consulate inErbil in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Both projects could help recover ties with Iraq “after an absencesince the toppling of the Saddam Hussein regime and the penetration of the Iranian regime intothe joints of the Iraqi state,” Abdullah al-Askar, head of the foreign affairs committee of SaudiArabia’s Shura Council said.ISIL militants executed 15 Iraqi civilians on Friday in Fallujah in the western province of Anbar,security sources said. The execution took place in public, in Fallujah's al-Karma district, after amilitant from the group made a statement claiming that the 15 people had cooperated with Iraqisecurity forces and had revealed information about ISIL’s whereabouts. ISIL also captured 170youths from two villages located in southern Kirkuk on Saturday. The youths are from the al-Jubur tribe and were taken to a prison in Hawija district located 55 km from the city of Kirkuk.ISIL had captured 50 people from the al-Jubur tribe last month but had released them after twodays of interrogation, security sources said. Meanwhile, the Iraqi security forces backed by tribalfighters managed to repel an ISIL attack on Saturday, in the city of Ramadi, the capital of Anbarprovince, police said. “Iraqi forces managed to kill 10 ISIL militants and destroyed a vehicle. Apoliceman was injured in the clashes, which lasted for five hours,” Anbar province’s police chiefKazim Mohamed al-Fahdawi, said. The number of kills could not be independently verified.Militants linked to ISIS group have rounded up dozens of men from two villages in northern Iraqfollowing a quarrel that led to the burning of the extremist group's flag, tribal leaders said onSaturday. Two sheiks said the militants entered a mosque in the village of al-Shajara on Fridayas worshipers gathered for prayers, removing flags commemorating the birth of ProphetMuhammad and hoisting their own black Islamic State group flag. That prompted a verbalquarrel between the militants and the worshippers, who later burned the Islamic State groupflag. The militants then snatched up 172 men from their homes in al-Shajara and from thenearby village of al-Ghariba village, both around about 44 miles outside the northern city ofKirkuk. Around 160 of the men were later released, while the rest remained in captivity, thesheiks said on condition of anonymity, fearing for their own safety.2 January Gunmen shot dead three Sunni clerics in the Shiite-majority southern province of Basra, Iraqiofficials said on Friday, an attack likely to increase already-significant sectarian tensions in thecountry. Raikan Mahdi, the head of the security committee for Al-Zubair district in Basraprovince, said "unknown gunmen" killed the clerics and wounded two more. The attack tookplace as the clerics headed from provincial capital Basra to Al-Zubair on Thursday night, afterattending a meeting on preparations to celebrate the Prophet Mohammed's birthday. It is stillunclear who carried out the killings.Violence in Iraq killed more than 15,000 civilians and security personnel in 2014, governmentfigures have shown, making it one of the deadliest years since the 2003 US-led invasion. Figurescompiled by the health, interior and defence ministries put the death toll at 15,538, comparedwith 17,956 killed in 2007 during the height of Sunni-Shia sectarian killings. 2014 has seen thehighest number of causalities since the violence in 2006-2007. The death toll was more than184

Global Security Reportdouble the 6,522 people killed in 2013. Iraq Body Count, a Britain-based NGO that tracksviolence in the country, gave an even higher toll, saying that 17,073 civilians were killed, whichwould make it the third deadliest year since 2003. “For Iraqis, it has been the most difficult andpainful of years because of the attack of the terrorist gangs," Prime Minister Haider al-Abbadisaid in a New Year's speech, referring to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), whowere said to be responsible for much of the bloodshed.1 January The Human Rights Commission in Iraq has said that the number of kidnappings in the countrydoubled in 2014, with 4,583 incidents occurring over the year. Speaking at a press conferenceheld at the Iraqi Council of Representatives on Tuesday, Fadel al-Ghraoui, a member of the nongovernmentalcommission, said these kidnappings were aimed at "instilling fear into the Iraqipeople". He added that the perpetrators frequently use motorcycles in their operations,kidnapping male and female students from in front of their schools. The perpetrators are oftengangs affiliated with ISIL or other gangs specialized in organized crime. The kidnappings aretypically committed for financial reasons with ransoms demanded, or target members of thearmy, security forces or those from different sectarian backgrounds.Israel & Palestine31 January Israeli bulldozers on Thursday destroyed a water pipe being used in connecting the West Tubasdistrict’s Atoof village with Khirbet Yezra, in the northern Jordan Valley. Head of Al-Maleh localcouncil, Aaref Daraghmeh, said that the pipe had length of 1,000 meters, and was donated byAgricultural Relief to provide the residents of Yezra with water, since the area has no watersources. Dr. Hanna Issa, professor and expert on international law, strongly condemned theaction, saying that occupation authorities provide settlers with water, while deprivingPalestinians of their own sources. Settlers in the occupied West Bank reportedly get anunlimited supply of water amounting to about four times more than Palestinians’ consumptionof water. Israel also prevents Palestinians from digging wells without military permission, whilegiving privilege to all settlers. Issa reiterated that Israel had no sovereignty to tamper withwater sources, according to the fourth Geneva Convention. He also demanded Israeliwithdrawal from Palestinian land, according to UN Resolution 242 (1967) and Resolution 338(1973).30 January Israel published tenders on Friday for the construction of 450 new housing units in occupiedPalestinian territory, a move that critics denounced as a political gesture ahead of a Marchgeneral election. Ariel Rosenberg, spokesman for Israel's Housing Ministry, said the governmentwas simply remarketing tenders that had failed to sell when they were initially offered last year.Israel goes to the polls on March 17, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeking a fourthterm in office. A number of groups, including Netanyahu's own Likud party, are battling tosecure pro-settler votes at the ballot. "Once again, Palestinian lives, rights and lands are beingviolated in the service of Israeli election campaigns," said Hanan Ashrawi, a senior official of thePalestine Liberation Organization. The tenders envisage construction in a number of locations,including near the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron, and several enclaves in the highlysensitive Jerusalem area. The U.S. State Department criticized the planned construction. StateDepartment spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, "They will have detrimental effects on the ground,inflame already-heightened tensions with the Palestinians and further isolate Israelinternationally," she told reporters. In addition to the published tenders for the planned 450units, authorities have submitted plans for the construction of 93 new homes in the EastJerusalem settlement of Gilo, anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now said. The group called thewave of bids "a pre-election grab to establish facts on the ground" and said it risked worseningrelations between Israel and the United States before a planned speech to Congress byNetanyahu on March 3. "After embarrassing the Obama administration with the invitation tothe Congress, Netanyahu adds another slam in the face of the Americans, showing no respect toIsrael's closest ally," Peace Now said. U.S. President Barack Obama has declined to seeNetanyahu in March, saying it would be "inappropriate" to do so just ahead of the parliamentaryelections.185

Global Security Report21 January Israeli police say they have shot a Palestinian man from the West Bank who stabbed at least 11people in an attack on a bus in central Tel Aviv. The incident occurred on Maariv Bridge wherethe suspect attacked people both on and outside the bus, police said. Police are treating theincident as a terrorist attack. The perpetrator attempted to flee the scene following the attack,and was lightly wounded after being shot in the leg, a police spokeswoman said. Three of thevictims were in a serious condition, with the others moderately or lightly wounded, accordingto the ambulance services. Officers are patrolling the area to prevent further attacks, policespokesman Micky Rosenfeld said on his Twitter account. The suspect was an illegal worker fromTulkarem, a town in the occupied West Bank. The 23-year-old said he had carried out the attackin response to Israel's military operations in Gaza last year, and tensions over access to religioussites in the old city of Jerusalem, police added. More than 2,100 Palestinians were killed in Gazaduring the conflict in July and August last year and 18,000 homes were destroyed. The majorityof those killed were civilians, according to the UN. Sixty-seven Israeli soldiers and six civiliansin Israel were also killed.Thai agricultural workers in Israel face serious labour rights abuses, including low pay,excessive hours and hazardous conditions, which may have contributed to a disturbing patternof deaths among them. Abusive conditions persist despite improvements in 2011 to therecruitment process for Thai workers, and Israeli laws that set a minimum wage, limit workinghours, allow lawful strikes and define standards for housing, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said.The report said various factors, including an ineffective inspection regime, poorly equippedenforcement units, and a failure to impose meaningful sanctions on employers who break thelaw, undermined this legal framework. Thailand itself has come under fire for labour violationsand human trafficking, and the U.S. State Department named it in June as one of the world'sworst sources of forced labour. Around 25,000 Thai migrant workers supply the majority of thelabour for Israel's agriculture sector, HRW said. "The success of Israel's agricultural industrydepends to a large extent on the labour of Thai migrant workers, but Israel is doing far too littleto uphold their rights and protect them from exploitation," said Sarah Leah Whitson, MiddleEast and North Africa director at HRW. Workers told HRW, whose staff interviewed 173 Thaiworkers in 10 farming communities across Israel, that they were treated like slaves, working upto 17 hours a day, without any time off. Many suffered headaches, respiratory problems andburning sensations in their eyes, which they attributed to spraying pesticides without adequateprotection. Some workers told HRW that relatives in Thailand sent them medicines becausethey could not access medical care in Israel. The report said the majority of workers interviewedwere housed in warehouses and sheds, with makeshift kitchen and laundry facilities, whileworkers on one farm were living in shelters made from cardboard. It also said there had been atroubling pattern of worker deaths that should have alerted the authorities to potential abuses.The report called, among other things, for streamlined labour inspection processes, meaningfulsanctions on employers and agents, and an investigation into deaths in the farm sector.19 January Iran has confirmed that one of its generals was among the dead in an Israeli airstrike that alsokilled several Hezbollah fighters in southern Syria on Sunday, an announcement that added tothe tension and unpredictability in the region after the strike. The attack placed Israel in a directbattlefield confrontation on Syrian soil with its long-time enemies Iran and Hezbollah. And itput pressure on Hezbollah to respond militarily, risking further escalation on the outskirts ofSyria’s chaotic civil war. The death of the general, Mohammad Ali Allahdadi, added to theevidence of Iran’s deep military involvement across the Syrian conflict. But the strike that killedhim also appeared to be a departure from the tacit agreement in which a host of foreign players— Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, the United States, and its Persian Gulf Arab allies — haveincreasingly intervened openly in Syria while seeking to avoid direct clashes with one another.Citing anonymous intelligence sources, the Israeli news media initially reported that officialsbelieved Hezbollah was planning an attack on Israelis from the area, near the Golan Heightsfrontier. A day later an unnamed security source said that Israel was apparently unaware anIranian general was travelling in a Hezbollah convoy it. The claim came as Iran threatened toretaliate for the killing and amid growing concern about the security situation on Israel’snorthern border with Lebanon and Syria. Although Israel has not officially confirmed it carriedout the strike on a convoy of several cars near the Syrian border village of Quneitra, it has been186

Global Security Reportwidely assumed that Israel was behind the attack. UN observers on the border also reportedseeing Israeli drones in the vicinity before the attack.17 January Prosecutors at the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) will open a preliminaryinquiry into possible war crimes in the Palestinian territories, the first formal step that couldlead to charges against officials there and in Israel, the court has said. They will determinewhether preliminary findings merit a full investigation into alleged atrocities, which could resultin charges against individuals on either the Israeli or Palestinian side." A preliminaryexamination is not an investigation but a process of examining the information available inorder to reach a fully informed determination on whether there is a reasonable basis to proceedwith an investigation pursuant to the criteria established by the Rome Statute," the court'sstatement said on Friday. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman condemned the ICC’sdecision as "scandalous". In a statement, Lieberman said that the sole purpose of thepreliminary examination was to "try to harm Israel's right to defend itself from terror". He saidthe decision was "solely motivated by political anti-Israel considerations," adding that he wouldrecommend against cooperating with the probe. Ammar Hijazi, a Palestinian foreign ministryofficial, said the Palestinian Authority believed that all necessary aspects were featured in thecase. "The gravity aspect is there, as civilians were targeted [in the war in Gaza]," he said."Palestine is ready to fully cooperate if there are any violations committed during the war bythe Palestinian side as well." Palestinian foreign minister Riyad al-Malki said: "Everything isgoing according to plan, no state and nobody can now stop this action we requested [...] in theend, a full investigation will follow the preliminary one."18 January The Haifa District Attorney’s Office on Sunday filed an indictment against seven Israeli Arabs,including a lawyer from Nazareth, for their alleged role in attempting to set up a branch ofIslamic State in Israel. The seven defendants allegedly were part of a plot to carry out terroristattacks in Israel and target Druse Israelis, security personnel, and others, the Shin Bet said. Thedefendants face charges of membership and activity in a banned organization, aiding a terroristgroup, and attempted contact with a foreign agent, for their plot to set up a branch of IslamicState in Israel and eventually to fight in Syria. The seven defendants were arrested in a joint ShinBet-Israel Police operation in November and December, but the case was kept under a gag orderuntil the indictment was filed Sunday. The Shin Bet said that all seven have confessed that sinceJune they have worked together to form a “Salafi jihadist” group and pledged their allegiance toIslamic State. The defendants reportedly met on a number of occasions with a well-knownextremist Salafi preacher in northern Israel, who called on them to recruit more men to theircause. The cell carried out secret meetings during which they discussed jihadist thinking, thefighting in Syria, and prepared themselves to fight with Islamic State in Syria, said theindictment. The indictment noted that during the meetings, the defendants left their cell phonesin their vehicles to avoid any possible wiretapping by the Shin Bet, who they suspected mightbe following them. They also learned how to make firebombs and on July 25 bought animals topractice slaughtering them, in order to build up their nerve for “slaughtering infidels in Syria,”in the words of the indictment. The state requested to remand all the defendants until the endof proceedings against them. The seven Haifa defendants are to be arraigned and have their finalhearing on how long they will be detained on February 2.15 January The United Nations has called on Israel to unlock millions of dollars in taxes owed to thePalestinian Authority that were withheld after it decided to join the International CriminalCourt. A senior UN official told the UN Security Council on Thursday that the freeze of about$127m, imposed on January 3, was in violation of the Oslo peace agreement between Israel andthe Palestinians. "We call on Israel to immediately resume the transfer of tax revenues," said UNAssistant Secretary-General Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Abbas, thePalestinian leader, asked Arab foreign ministers gathered in Cairo to provide a "safety net" of$100m a month to cover tax revenues withheld by Israel. During the Cairo meeting, Abbas alsocalled for the formation of a committee to launch a new bid seeking a UN Security Councilresolution on ending the Israeli occupation, a month after the council rejected a similarinitiative. The failed Arab-backed resolution set the end of 2017 as the deadline for a full Israeliwithdrawal that would pave the way for Palestinian statehood. The United States and Australia187

Global Security Reportvoted against the resolution, but China, France and Russia were among eight countries thatbacked it, leaving it just one vote short of the nine required for adoption. The outcome sparedthe US from resorting to its veto, a move that could have undermined its standing in the Arabworld at a time when Washington is leading a campaign against rebels in Iraq and Syria.3 January Israel has halted the transfer of tax revenues to the Palestinians following their bid to join theInternational Criminal Court, Israeli officials say. They said $127m (£82m; €106m) collected onbehalf of the Palestinian Authority last month would be held back. The Palestinians submitteddocuments to join the ICC on Friday in a move opposed by both Israel and the US. SeniorPalestinian official Saeb Erekat condemned the Israeli measure, calling it a "new war crime"."Israel is once again responding to our legal steps with further illegal collective punishments,"Mr Erekat said. Israel collects taxes on behalf of the Palestinians, and transfers about $100m permonth, accounting for two-thirds of the authority's budget. It is not the first time Israel hasfrozen the monthly transfers. It imposed a similar sanction in April 2014 after PA PresidentMahmoud Abbas applied to join a series of international treaties and conventions. An unnamedIsraeli official who announced the new freeze said Israel would defend itself against anyPalestinian claims in the "international arena". Earlier this week Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahusaid: "It is the Palestinian Authority - which is in a unity government with Hamas, an avowedterrorist organisation that, like ISIS [Islamic State], perpetrates war crimes - that needs to beconcerned about the [ICC]." On Wednesday, Mr Abbas signed the Rome Statute, the ICC'sfounding treaty. Under the terms of the statute, it will take about 60 days for the Palestinians tojoin the ICC after they file the documents. Neither Israel nor the US is a member of the ICC. ThePalestinians' chances of joining were improved in 2012 after the UN General Assembly voted toupgrade their status to that of a "non-member observer state". ICC chief prosecutor FatouBensouda has previously said the upgrade means Palestine now qualifies to join the RomeStatute. Based in The Hague, the ICC can prosecute individuals accused of genocide, crimesagainst humanity and war crimes committed since 1 July 2002, when the Rome Statute cameinto force.1 January Palestine has announced that they joined the International Criminal Court to pursue war crimescharges against Israel. The move by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas set the stage for adiplomatic showdown with the United States and drew an angry response from Israel. "The onewho needs to fear the International Criminal Court in The Hague is the Palestinian Authority,which has a unity government with Hamas, a terror organization like (the Islamic State group)which commits war crimes," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.Netanyahu called Israel's soldiers "the most moral army in the world" and said the countrywould take unspecified "retaliatory steps." U.S. State Department spokesman Edgar Vasquezsaid America strongly opposed the move and warned it would be "counter-productive and donothing to further the aspirations of the Palestinian people for a sovereign and independentstate." Abbas has been under heavy domestic pressure to take action against Israel followingmonths of tensions fuelled by the collapse of U.S.-brokered peace talks, a 50-day war betweenIsrael and Palestinian militants in Gaza, a spate of deadly Palestinian attacks on Israeli targetsand Israeli restrictions on Palestinian access to a key Muslim holy site in Jerusalem. Tuesday'sdefeat in the U.N. Security Council further raised pressure on Abbas to act. "We want tocomplain. There's aggression against us, against our land. The Security Council disappointedus," Abbas said. Abbas had threatened to join the international court if Tuesday's SecurityCouncil resolution failed. The Palestinians had asked the council to set a three-year deadline forIsrael to withdraw from all occupied lands claimed by the Palestinians. The Palestinians believethe strong international support will put pressure on Israel to allow the creation of a Palestinianstate in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem. Turning to the International CriminalCourt marks a major policy shift by transforming Abbas' relations with Israel from tense toopenly hostile. Abbas has been threatening to join the court since 2012, but held off underAmerican and Israeli pressure. The Palestinians can use the court to challenge the legality ofIsraeli settlement construction on occupied lands and to pursue war crimes charges connectedto military activity.188

Global Security ReportJordan31 January Japan and Jordan scrambled on Friday to find out what had happened to two of their nationalsbeing held by Islamic State, after a deadline passed for the release of a would-be suicide bomberbeing held on death row in Amman. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said every effort wasbeing made to secure the release of journalist Kenji Goto. Jordan's army said state agencies were"working round the clock". Jordan said on Thursday it was still holding the Iraqi womanprisoner as a deadline passed for her release set by Islamic State militants, who threatened tokill a Jordanian pilot unless she was handed over by sunset. An audio message purportedly fromGoto said the pilot would be killed if Jordan did not free Sajida al-Rishawi, in jail for her role ina 2005 suicide bomb attack that killed 60 people in the Jordanian capital Amman. The messageextended a previous deadline set on Tuesday in which Goto said he would be killed within 24hours if al-Rishawi was not freed. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said late onFriday that Tokyo was doing everything it could, but declined to answer whether negotiationshad stalled. About an hour before the new deadline was due to pass on Thursday, governmentspokesman Mohammad al-Momani said Jordan was still holding al-Rishawi. "We want proof ...that the pilot is alive so that we can proceed with what we said yesterday; exchanging theprisoner with our pilot," Momani said. The pilot, Muath al-Kasaesbeh, was captured after his jetcrashed in north-eastern Syria in December during a bombing mission against Islamic State.Momani said separately that Jordan was coordinating with Japanese authorities in an effort tosecure the release of Goto, a veteran war reporter. In the latest audio recording purportedly ofGoto, he said that Kasaesbeh would be killed "immediately" if al-Rishawi was not at the Turkishborder by sunset on Thursday, Iraq time, and ready to be exchanged for the Japanese hostage.The hostage crisis erupted after Abe announced in Cairo $200 million in non-military aid forcountries opposing Islamic State, but his government has rejected suggestions it acted rashlyand stressed the assistance was humanitarian. Goto went to Syria in late October. According tofriends and business associates, he was attempting to secure the release of Haruna Yukawa, hisfriend and fellow Japanese citizen who was captured by Islamic State in August. In the first videopurportedly of Goto, released last week, a black-clad masked figure with a knife said Goto andYukawa would be killed within 72 hours if Japan did not pay Islamic State $200 million. Update(1 February) – Jordan has strongly condemned the killing of a second Japanese hostage byIslamic State and said the militant group had rejected all efforts made by the kingdom to releasehim. Islamic State militants released a video on Saturday, which purported to show thebeheading of journalist Kenji Goto, whom the al Qaeda offshoot had been holding captive alongwith a Jordanian pilot. "The Jordanian government strongly condemns the execution of thesecond Japanese hostage by the terrorist organisation Daesh," Jordan's government spokesmantold state media.30 January Jordan has temporarily halted air strikes targeting ISIS as the deadline for handing over a wouldbesuicide bomber to save the life of a pilot captured by ISIS passed. The number of air strikesagainst militants were reduced after Muath al-Kasaesbeh plane crashed as he was conductingUS-led coalition air strikes in December. He was captured by the group after the crash, whoclaim to have shot his aircraft down. Jordanian fighter jets are continuing to fly reconnaissancemissions as part of the coalition but have now stopped directly targeting ISIS positions.27 January An online message purportedly from the Islamic State group warned that a Japanese hostageand Jordanian pilot the extremists hold have less than "24 hours left to live." The message,posted online Tuesday afternoon, again demanded the release of Sajida al-Rishawi, an Iraqiwoman sentenced to death in Jordan for involvement in a 2005 terror attack that killed 60people. It also mentioned Jordanian pilot 1st Lt. Mu'ath al-Kaseasbeh, who is a captive of theIslamic State group. Tuesday's video matched a message released over the weekend, thoughneither bore the logo of the Islamic State group's al-Furqan media arm. The weekend videoshowed a still photo of Kenji Goto holding what appears to be a photo of the body of Japanesehostage Haruna Yukawa. A Japanese envoy in Jordan, Deputy Foreign Minister YasuhideNakayama, earlier expressed hope the two hostages would return home "with a smile on theirfaces." He added, "I hope we can all firmly work hard and join hands to cooperate, and for thetwo countries (Japan and Jordan) to cooperate, in order for us to see the day when the Jordanian189

Global Security Reportpilot and our Japanese national Mr. Goto, can both safely return to their own countries with asmile on their faces." It was the first time a Japanese official mentioned al-Kaseasbeh, who hasbeen held by the extremist Islamic State group after crashing in December. It wasn't clear whenthe pilot possible release had entered the picture. Freelance journalist Kenji Goto was seized inlate October in Syria, apparently while trying to rescue another hostage, 42-year-old HarunaYukawa, who was captured by the militants last summer. Japanese officials have indicated theyare treating the video released over the weekend as authentic and thus accepting the likelihoodthat Yukawa, a 42-year-old adventurer captured in Syria last summer, was killed.17 January Around 1,500 protesters took to the streets of Amman on Friday in protest against a newcartoon depicting Prophet Mohammad published by French weekly satirical Charlie Hebdo.Minor friction took place between demonstrators and security forces as some protesters triedto continue the march, which started from downtown Amman's Al Husseini Mosque, and headedto the French embassy. Four protesters were detained following the incident but were laterreleased. Activists, Muslim Brotherhood members and leaders as well as members of popularyouth movements participated in the march. The cover-page cartoon of Prophet Mohammadcarried by Charlie Hebdo last Wednesday, in its first edition since an attack on its Paris officesclaimed by Al Qaeda killed 12 people on January 7, has sparked similar protests across theMuslim world. Before the beginning of the demonstration, protesters attended the Fridaysermon, which also addressed the publication of the cartoon, deemed offensive to the prophet,and performed the Friday prayer. In the march, men, women and children chanted slogansexpressing solidarity with Prophet Mohammad and held placards condemning the step takenby Charlie Hebdo. Ali Abul Sukkar, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, said the march showedthat all segments of Jordanian society were going out for the sake of Prophet Mohammad. "Wewant to send a message through such events to mockers of the nation and it’s ProphetMohammad. They think that such an act will pass without a reaction," he said during the march.1 January The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has just published in its latest English-language magazineDabiq what it claims is an "interview" with the Jordanian pilot captured in Syria. Militants saythey downed an F-16 jet manned by Moaz al-Kassasbeh as he took part in U.S.-led coalition airstrikes near ISIS's de-facto capital, Raqqah, last week. Images provided by the extremistorganization's media wing and circulated widely on social media showed bearded men withKalashnikovs pulling the terrified airman out of a nearby river. "We entered the region ofRaqqah to sweep the area, then the striker jets entered to begin their attack," al-Kassasbeh said,according to the online publication. "My plane was struck by a heat-seeking missile. I heard andfelt its hit." The Jordanian government and U.S. Central Command described the incident as anaircraft crash and adamantly stated that it was not shot down by ISIS. "I checked the systemdisplay and it indicated that the engine was damaged and burning," the pilot is quoted as saying."The plane began to deviate from its normal flight path, so I ejected. I landed in the Furat Riverby parachute and the seat caught on some ground, keeping me fixed, until I was captured bysoldiers of the Islamic State." A still image of al-Kassasbeh wearing the orange jumpsuit tops theshort article titled: "The Capture of the Crusader Pilot." Journalist James Foley, American NGOfounder Peter Kassig, and British aid worker Alan Henning among other hostages wore similaroutfits in videos purporting to show their murders at the hands of the extremists. The family ofthe captured Jordanian pilot have made several emotional pleas for his release and called on theJordanian government to launch an investigation into the crash. "Be supportive of our brotherMoaz and to be merciful on him, please send him back to us. He is just a soldier who is followingorders and has no authority."Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation is set to build Jordan's first nuclear power station,according to a release from the Russian government. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedevhas approved a draft agreement for the construction and maintenance of the new nuclearstation, which will be comprised of two 1,000-megawatt (MW) nuclear reactor units. Withapproval of the draft agreement, Jordan and Russia have entered negotiations over electricitypricing in order to reach a final agreement and break ground on the reactors by 2015, accordingto the Jordan Times. The first unit is anticipated to launch in 2024 and the second in 2026.Jordan’s nuclear project is aimed at increasing the nation’s energy independence and stabilizing190

Global Security ReportKuwaitenergy supplies. Jordan currently imports 95 percent of its energy, according to the WorldNuclear Association. The energy it generates itself is mainly from oil and diesel fuel, thoughhistorically it has also produced a large amount of power from natural gas.26 January Security authorities in Kuwait have arrested three bloggers for posting comments abusive of thelate Saudi king Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud on their Twitter accounts. Two more bloggers,wanted by the authorities for their comments, are reportedly out of the country. The publicprosecution had ordered the arrests following a complaint by the foreign affairs ministry. Thefive bloggers face the charge of engaging in an act of animosity against Saudi Arabia throughabusing its rulers in a manner that may impact Kuwait’s political relations, the daily said. Areport in another Kuwaiti daily Al Qabas said that 11 people had been arrested over their anti-King Abdullah tweets. Citing a security source it did not name, the report said that foreignerswere among those arrested. It added that the Kuwaiti nationals would face legal action and thatthe foreigners would be deported amid a campaign of zero tolerance towards any abuses ofneighbouring countries. The outpour of emotions and expressions of compassion following thedeath of King Abdullah on Friday has been enormous in both Bahrain and Kuwait whose leadersattended the funeral prayers in the Saudi capital Riyadh. Messages of condolences and sympathyby social media users went viral on the Internet.22 January Kuwait’s government has announced that it will launch a crackdown on illegal residents, whichis expected to lead to the arrest of more than 100,000 residents currently living in the country.It will also be one of the largest operations conducted by the Gulf country, which has tightenedits labour policies in the recent past. The crackdown will be conducted with the help of otherministerial departments in areas where violators are thought to be, Major General Sheikh MazenAl- Jarrah, Interior Ministry Assistant Undersecretary for National and Passport Affairs wasquoted as saying. The official said that the majority of residency violators are Indians, with25,000 of them staying illegally in the country. Other nationalities include Bangladeshis, SriLankans, Egyptians, Filipinos, Syrians, Pakistanis, Iranians and Iraqis. Sheikh Mazen warnedthat all those who do not have proper documents will face strict legal action and urged them tohand themselves over to the authorities prior to the crackdown. Kuwait has been looking tocorrect an imbalance in its demographics as it aims to reduce the number of foreign workers itemploys. Foreigners make up about 69 per cent of Kuwait’s 3.8 million population. In 2013, itlaunched an aggressive campaign against illegal expats as it deported those working without aproper visa or those committing traffic offenses.21 January Kuwait will is planning to take legal action against several university lecturers and schoolteachers for allegedly preaching extremist religious views, the education minister has said. DrBader Al Essa reportedly said some teachers were being closely monitored and the governmentwas working to rid its educational institutions of the “cancer” and “stop the advance ofsectarianism and extremism in our educational institutions.” He added, “Extremism is no longerconfined only to the university campus but also to our schools through some teachers whoseactivities are being closely monitored. Extremism is very much present in some colleges andlegal action will be taken through legal channels against these educational institutions.” Amember of Kuwait University’s Faculty of Sharia said the campus had been turned into abreeding ground for extremists. The Students Union also was controlled by the MuslimBrotherhood and had helped spread extremism on campus. However, under Kuwaiti lawgovernment ministries do not have the power to fire a university or school staff member forhaving extremist views. The decision must be made by the institution’s council, which is madeup of various staff and non-staff members. Al Essa said the government was reviewing its legaloptions, including changing the law.20 January Kuwait's trade minister has cancelled the business license of the company that publishes anewspaper known for being critical of the government, citing violations of corporateregulations. Al-Watan was one of two newspapers suspended by a judge for two weeks last yearafter they reported on an audio recording that discussed an alleged plot to overthrow the Gulf191

Global Security Reportstate's rulers. Kuwait has imposed a news blackout on an investigation into the tape, saying thatmedia coverage about it was damaging to the country. Al-Watan, in a statement posted on itswebsite, said a trade ministry representative delivered the minister's decision on Mondayevening. Officials from the ministry arrived soon afterwards to seal the company's office. Thesuspension was prompted by "violations of the requirements for a minimum capital" stipulatedby the Kuwaiti corporate law, according to a photo of the decision by Commerce and IndustryMinister Abdulmohsen al-Madaj that was published on the al-Watan website. Al-Watan said itplans to appeal the decision. Last year, state news agency KUNA cited the Information Ministryas saying that al-Watan and Alam Alyawm newspapers had published "articles and views" aboutthe alleged plot against Kuwait's rulers that might affect investigations by the PublicProsecution and "could undermine the national interest". Al-Watan's editor-in-chief, SheikhKhalifa Ali al-Khalifa al-Sabah, is a member of Kuwait's al-Sabah ruling family. Alam Alyawm isa separate publication that is close to Kuwait's political opposition. Reports about the taperelated to the alleged plot have been featured online and in local newspapers since the start of2014, prompting a rare call by the emir's office to stop discussing the topic. The publicprosecutor opened a case on the tape in December 2013 after a legal complaint by a formerparliament speaker who asked for an investigation into tweets about the recording. Kuwait ishome to about a dozen daily newspapers, which often include criticism of governmentministers, including some ruling family members. However, issues related to the ruling systemitself - a hereditary dynasty - are especially sensitive.14 January Kuwaiti oil minister Ali Al Omair said oil prices had fallen to unexpected levels, with crudecontinuing a rout that extended to a nearly six-year low this week. Global oil prices tumblednearly 5 percent at one point on Tuesday and declined further on Wednesday, having sunk about60 percent in the last six months in an oversupplied market. The price fall affects Kuwait andother oil-producing countries, KUNA said, citing Omair as telling parliament. "We harbour no illwill towards anyone, and it is not possible for Kuwait to participate in what others see as oilprice wars," Omair was quoted as saying. His comments came a day after Iranian PresidentHassan Rouhani said countries behind the fall in global oil prices would regret their decisionand warned that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would suffer alongside Iran from the price drop. Theprice of Kuwaiti oil had fallen by $2.39 in Tuesday trading and ended at $38.90 a barrel.4 January The plunge in oil prices in the past six months won’t affect Kuwait’s economic developmentprojects and the government will continue to support capital expenditure in the economy,Finance Minister Anas al-Saleh said on Sunday. Saleh and other ministers were speaking at anews conference to explain the government’s fiscal policy and reforms to its lavish system ofconsumer subsidies. On January 1, the government moved to cut its subsidy burden by raisingthe price of diesel at wholesalers and fuel stations to 0.170 dinar (59 U.S. cents) per litre from0.055 dinar. The politically sensitive decision prompted heavy criticism of government policyby some members of parliament, who argued that the drop in oil prices should lead to lower,not higher, prices for consumers. Ministers insisted on Sunday that they would not abandonsubsidy reform, but Saleh also said the government might make 0.170 dinar per litre - still cheapby international standards - a ceiling for diesel. Oil Minister Ali al-Omair said the governmenthad decided to postpone any removal of subsidies from petrol, electricity and water. He did notsay when authorities might resume considering the reforms.Lebanon29 January Spain is calling on the UN to carry out a full investigation into the death of a Spanish UNpeacekeeper in south Lebanon after Spanish authorities said he was killed by Israeli fire.Corporal Francisco Javier Soria Toledo, 36, from Málaga, died on Wednesday after beingwounded during an exchange of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters. Spanishauthorities said the corporal, who was serving in the UN interim force Unifil, was killed by Israelifire. “It is clear that this was because of the escalation of the violence and it came from the Israeliside,” Román Oyarzun Marchesi, Spain’s ambassador to the UN, told reporters. Spain’s foreignaffairs minister, José Manuel García-Margallo, called on the UN to carry out an “immediate,exhaustive and complete” investigation of what had happened. As soon as this was done, he said,192

Global Security Report“He would not hesitate to bring those responsible to justice.” García-Margallo said he hadreceived a phone call from his Israeli counterpart, Avigdor Lieberman, who offered hiscondolences. The Israeli ambassador to Madrid had also called to offer condolences andapologies, García-Margallo said. The peacekeeper’s death comes amid escalating tensionbetween Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. In a statement, Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general,called for “maximum calm and restraint”, urging all sides to “act responsibly to prevent anyescalation in an already tense regional environment”.28 January Two Israeli soldiers and a Spanish UN peacekeeper have been killed as Hezbollah militantstraded fire with Israeli forces on the Lebanese border. After Israeli forces were hit by missilefire, they responded by firing shells into southern Lebanon. The UN Security Council is to discussthe fighting at an emergency meeting called by France in New York. A senior UN official on theground in Lebanon urged "maximum restraint to prevent an escalation". Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu held an emergency security meeting and said the attackers would "pay thefull price". The cross-border violence erupted when Israeli military vehicles were struck by antitankmissiles at about 11:35 (09:35 GMT) near Mt Dov, in the Shebaa Farms area, a tract of landwhere the borders of Israel, Lebanon and Syria meet. Two soldiers died in the attack. Hezbollahsaid it was retaliation for an Israeli air strike that killed six of its fighters and an IranianRevolutionary Guards general in the Syrian Golan Heights 10 days ago. Seven other Israelisoldiers were injured, two of them moderately. Just over an hour later, mortars hit an Israelimilitary position on Mt Hermon, prompting troops to close the site and evacuate civilians froma ski resort in the area. Israel struck back with combined aerial and ground strikes on Hezbollahoperational positions along the border, the military said. At least 50 artillery shells were firedat the villages of Majidiyeh, Abbasiyeh and Kfar Chouba, according to Lebanese officials. Later,the UN Interim Force in Lebanon announced that one of its peacekeepers had been killed closeto the Shebaa Farms area. The defence ministry in Madrid identified the dead man as a Spanishsoldier who had been at a position near the village of Ghajar. The UN special co-ordinator forLebanon, Sigrid Kaag, expressed "deep concern over the serious deterioration of the securitysituation" and "urgently called on all parties to refrain from any actions that could destabilisethe situation further".22 January Israeli forces fired Monday several flares south Lebanon as Israeli jets were seen violatingLebanese airspace, a security source said. According to the source, several flares were launchedtowards the border town of Naqoura. Israeli aircraft were seen violating Lebanese airspace atlow altitudes. Israeli forces have been on high alert after launching an airstrike on a Hezbollahconvoy in Syria’s Golan Heights over a week ago, killing six Hezbollah fighters, an IranianRevolutionary Guard General and two Syrians allied to the party. Fears of retaliation byHezbollah or other groups have risen since Sunday's attack, prompting Israel to move troopsand equipment towards the borders with Lebanon and Syria. Israel warned Lebanon and Syriaon Friday not to allow any attacks on Israel from their soil, hoping to avoid reprisals for theairstrike.14 January Lebanese security forces staged an operation to remove Islamist prisoners from a bloc that theycontrolled at Lebanon’s Roumieh prison and transfer them to a more secure location where theycould be better isolated. The prisoners had access to mobile phones and computers, and officialsare saying the Jabal Mohsen attacks were organised from Roumieh. Recent suicide bombingscoincided with reports from Syria’s Qalamoun district that ISIL has been gaining ground on theAl Nusra Front there. Whereas the Al Nusra Front appears to be focused on fighting the regimeof Bashar Al Assad, ISIL is viewed as a group that seeks to expand its sway throughout the MiddleEast, therefore whose primary aim is to destabilise societies to bring this about. Speculation inLebanon about a new wave of attacks is not based on any specific information, but the concernis not unfounded. As ISIL and the Al Nusra Front gear up for a battle for control over Qalamoun,or alternatively decide on a modus vivendi there, Lebanon will feel the repercussions.10 January A grenade attack followed by a suicide bombing struck a coffee shop Saturday night in thenorthern Lebanese city of Tripoli, killing at least seven people and wounding 36, securityofficials and the Red Cross said. Syria’s al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front claimed responsibility on193

Global Security ReportTwitter for the blast in Tripoli’s predominantly Alawite neighbourhood of Jabal Mohsen, sayingit was a twin suicide attack. Authorities imposed a curfew in the neighbourhood until 7 a.m.Sunday. A Lebanese army statement said the suicide bomber attacked the cafe at around 7:30p.m. It said military police would investigate the bombing. Security officials, speaking oncondition of anonymity, said that the attack began with a grenade tossed inside the cafe,followed by a single suicide bomber. Tripoli has been relatively quiet recently after years oftension between its majority Sunni population and its Alawite minority. Embattled PresidentBashar al-Assad in neighbouring Syria is an Alawite and support for him in Tripoli has sparkedviolence there before. Most of the Sunnis in Tripoli support the predominantly Sunni Syrianrebels trying to overthrow Assad. Lebanon has seen a series of attacks and suicide bombingssince the conflict in Syria began nearly four years ago. Saturday’s attack was among the deadliestto hit the country in the past year. Lebanon’s al-Qaeda-linked group, the Abdullah AzzamBrigades, has claimed some of the attacks. It has warned that attacks will continue as long as themilitant Hezbollah group takes part in Syria’s civil war alongside Assad’s military.7 January At least four Syrian refugees have died as a result of the huge storm that is currently sweepingacross Lebanon, as more than a million refugees try and survive against the onslaught of snowand rain. A three-month-old baby girl died on Tuesday night after being stuck at the Masnaaborder crossing for four days. Three members of a four-person group crossing into the Shebaaarea in southern Lebanon from the Syrian village of Beit Jin, including a six-year-old boy andtwo men, were also killed by the storm. Storm Zina has already forced road and school closuresup and down the country, as well as temporarily shutting down the airport on Tuesday night aswinds gathered speed of up to 90km per hour. Thousands of refugees have been left strandedin the Bekaa Valley with very little food and heating oil, as aid agencies struggle to gain accessto them following the closure of roads due to the heavy snowfall. On Wednesday, entire refugeesettlements in the Bekaa were blanketed in snow, with many refugees forced to dig their ownway out. There are currently 1.1 million registered refugees in Lebanon who have fled theconflict in neighbouring Syria, with another reported 300,000 unregistered refugees. Accordingto Ninette Kelley, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) representative in Lebanon,the refugee agency has been preparing emergency stocks consisting of fuel vouchers, blankets,stoves and food parcels since October as part of its winter programme. As of midday onWednesday, UNHCR staff were also facing logistical problems. Some were snowed in, whileother offices had no electricity due to severe power outages in the area. Um Omar, a refugee whofled her home in Qusayr two years ago and is now living in an informal settlement in Arsal, saidthere was absolutely "no heating oil whatsoever to even warm the tents". "We've been withoutheating oil for two months now. An aid agency came before but were only able to provide fuelfor a quarter for the families here. We are actually freezing to death." The Lebanese Red Crosssaid it had conducted at least 30 rescue operations in the Bekaa and Mount Lebanon for peoplestranded by the snow.5 January New restrictions on Syrians entering Lebanon have come into effect, further slowing the flow ofpeople trying to escape the war. Previously, travel between the two countries was largelyunrestricted, but now Syrians will have to obtain a visa. Lebanon hosts more than a millionSyrian refugees who have been displaced by the civil war as rebel forces try to oust PresidentBashar al-Assad. This is the latest step to try to stem the influx. Before now, Syrians could stayin Lebanon for up to six months automatically. Under the new measure, Syrians wanting to enterLebanon will have to fulfil certain criteria in order to be granted a visa at the border. It is unclearwhat the rule will mean for the many Syrians already in the country and not registered asrefugees. Every Syrian wanting to enter the country will need to state a clear purpose for theirvisit, and, if approved, a visa will be issued for a certain duration. Syrians coming to work inLebanon will also have to be sponsored by a Lebanese individual or company. A spokesman forthe UN refugee agency (UNHCR) in Lebanon, Ron Redmond, said that over the past six to eightmonths several measures had already reduced the number of people seeking registration asrefugees. But the UN had worked out a system with the government to enable the mostvulnerable to still gain access. Redmond said, "The government says that it will allow thoseextreme humanitarian cases access but it is not covered in these announcements that have comeout the last few days." Khalil Jebara, an adviser to Lebanon's interior minister, stated that194

Global Security ReportLebanon "will only allow refugees under very limited and exceptional cases." Permits forrefugees would need to be signed by Lebanon's social affairs ministry, as well as its interiorministry, he added. Lebanon has long been struggling to cope with the number of refugeesfleeing the war in Syria.3 January ISIS militants holed up in the Qalamoun Mountains on the Syrian-Lebanese border are seekingto gain control of nearby Lebanese villages to support their fighting positions, the head ofLebanon's main security apparatus said. Major General Abbas Ibrahim said Lebanese forceswere on high alert to prevent the hard-line militants from seizing any Lebanese territory nearthe Qalamoun Mountains, which demarcate Lebanon's eastern border with Syria. Such crossborderincursions would add to concern that Lebanon could be drawn further into the conflictin neighbouring Syria. Ibrahim, who is the head of Lebanon's General Security office, said ISIShad recently boosted its numbers in the Qalamoun area with the aim of securing cross-borderterritory to support its Syrian operations. "Islamic State does not want to dominate Qalamoun... but they want to use it to secure their backs in the region through controlling (Lebanese)villages in contact with the Qalamoun area," he said. ISIS has become the dominant armed groupin Qalamoun. "In the recent period about 700 new fighters pledged allegiance, and so they arenow more than 1,000 fighters," he said. Fighting has escalated in Qalamoun and other areasalong the border since the summer, pitting Islamic State and other insurgents against forcesfighting on behalf the Syrian government. Referring to ISIS and other militant groups like NusraFront, the Lebanese army chief warned in November that Lebanon was facing "the mostdangerous terrorist plot in the whole region". Lebanese residents near the border have said theyare ready to take up arms to defend their homes.Oman30 January UN rights experts on Friday urged the Omani government to release Said Ali Said Jadad, a humanrights activist. Jadad, who promoted democratic reforms, was arrested last week with nowarrant and charged with undermining the prestige of the state, inciting demonstrations,steering up sectarian strife and offending state officials. The Special Rapporteur on the situationof human rights defenders, Michel Forst, and the Special Rapporteur on the rights to freedom ofpeaceful assembly and of association, Maina Kiai, believe Jadad's detention may be retaliationfor assisting international organizations, noting several times Jadad has been arrested aftervisits from members of the UN. The Gulf Center for Human Rights (GCHR) has also denouncedthe arrest. Jadad has allegedly been harassed by the government for several months, includinga travel ban last October. Jadad was also detained last December when police raided his home.22 January Oman, the biggest Middle Eastern oil producer that's not a member of OPEC, joined Venezuelaand Iran in questioning the group's decision to keep its output target unchanged even withcrude prices falling. Oman is having a "really difficult time" because of low oil prices, Oman OilMinister Mohammed Al-Rumhy said Wednesday at a conference in Kuwait City. Standard &Poor's lowered the country's outlook to negative from stable on December 5, citing a risk thatoil may drop more than expected. Brent crude slumped 54 percent in the past year as OPECmaintained its target at the group's November 27 meeting to defend market share amid a U.S.shale boom that's exacerbating a global glut. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in theOrganization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led that decision, while fellow members Iranand Venezuela wanted to cut output. "I really fail to understand how market share became moreimportant than revenue," Al-Rumhy said. "We have created volatility, and volatility is one ofthose words that's bad for business." The 2015 budget of Oman, where oil and natural gasaccount for 79 percent of government revenue, is based on an average crude price of $85 abarrel, Finance Minister Darwish Al Balushi said in November. Oman's oil production fell inNovember to 926,000 barrels a day, the lowest since May 2013, according to figures on the JointOrganisations Data Initiative website. Oman is sticking to its plans to sell government energyassets to the private sector, a program that started about 10 years ago, Al-Rumhy said.16 January Between 7 and 10 January 2015, the National IHR Focal Point of Oman notified the World HealthOrganisation of two cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)195

Global Security Reportinfection, including one death. A 32-year-old male from Dakhelyia Region developed symptomson 27 December and was admitted to hospital on 5 January. The patient had comorbidities. Heowned a farm and had frequent contact with camels, goats and sheep. The patient had no historyof exposure to other known risk factors in the 14 days prior to the onset of symptoms. He wasadmitted to ICU but passed away on 7 January. A 31-year-old female from Dakhelyia Regiondeveloped symptoms on 8 January and was admitted to hospital on 9 January. The patient hasno comorbidities. She is a household contact of the MERS-CoV case reported above. Thehousehold owns camels but she had no direct contact with them. The patient is in stablecondition and remains in isolation. Contact tracing of household contacts and healthcarecontacts is ongoing for these cases.2 January His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said, Supreme Commander, issued a Royal amnesty for a numberof inmates convicted for different crimes. The Royal amnesty included 209 inmates of whom117 are of different nationalities. The amnesty, issued by His Majesty the Sultan, coincides withthe Prophet Muhammad’s birth anniversary and in consideration of their families.Qatar30 January Qatar Airways has taken a 9.99% stake in International Airlines Group, the parent company ofBritish Airways. The airlines declined to give any details of the figures involved but based onIAG’s closing share price yesterday of 564p, Qatar Airways’ stake is worth £1.15 billion. Theacquisition is designed to further cement the relationship between the two companies with theMiddle Eastern carrier saying that it may look to increase its holding in the future. Qatar Airwaysjoined the Oneworld alliance, which IAG’s airlines are part of, in 2013. Akbar Al Baker, groupchief executive of Qatar Airways, said: “IAG represents an excellent opportunity to furtherdevelop our Westwards strategy. Having joined the Oneworld Alliance it makes sense for us towork more closely together in the near term and we look forward to forging a long termrelationship.”28 January Qatar Investment Authority and U.S. investor Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) are buyingSongbird Estates, which owns Canary Wharf, for 2.6 billion pounds ($4 billion). The CanaryWharf estate was developed on nearly 100 acres of derelict land in east London's former docks.Over the past 25 years it has grown to rival London's traditional financial heart by attractingbanks such as Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), Credit Suisse (CS), HSBC (HSBC) and Barclays(BCS). It has four million square feet of office space, three shopping malls and a number of parks,supporting a working population of more than 100,000. Qatar already owns several Londonlandmarks, including the Shard, which is Western Europe's tallest building. It also owns luxurydepartment store Harrods, and the Olympic Village.25 January A Qatar-based Muslim cleric called for protests in Egypt on the anniversary of the country's Jan25 uprising against Hosni Mubarak and said Mohamed Morsi is Egypt's "legitimate" leader, in aspeech that may worsen relations between Qatar and Egypt. Sheikh Youssef al-Qaradawi, anEgyptian-born cleric who has close links to the Muslim Brotherhood, has been critical of Egypt'smilitary-backed government, accusing President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi of betrayal for oustingPresident Morsi in 2013, a Muslim Brotherhood leader. Qaradawi's outspoken support for theIslamist movement has contributed to a diplomatic rift between Qatar and its Gulf Arab alliesand Egypt, who consider the Islamist group a security threat and supported Morsi's overthrow.Since then, Qaradawi has refrained from delivering Friday sermons. But this has not stoppedhim from criticizing Egypt's rulers during conferences or by statements often sent by email. "Icall on the people of Egypt, all those capable to go out of their houses on this great occasion ...Egyptians should go out and express that they don't want anything but the revolution they hadstarted," Qaradawi said in a video recording posted on his Twitter account on Sunday. A sourceclose to Qaradawi confirmed that the cleric is still in Doha and the recording of the messageposted took place in Qatar. Angered by Qatari policy, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emiratesand Bahrain withdrew their ambassadors from the fellow GCC member last March, accusing itof undermining their domestic security through its support of the Muslim Brotherhood. Anunprecedented eight-month rift in GCC relations ended in November. The ambassadors196

Global Security ReportSaudi Arabiareturned and Doha promised to scale down its support for the Brotherhood, according towestern diplomats in Doha. In recent months, Qatar has taken steps to improve relations withCairo, such as suspending broadcasts by the Qatari-owned al Jazeera television network of anEgypt-focused channel. But Qatar still hosts a number of Islamist figures, including Qaradawi, acontinuous source of irritation to Egypt.30 January In a sweeping shakeup, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saudof Saudi Arabia has replaced the heads of intelligence and other key agencies. The appointments,which analysts said supported signs the kingdom will chart a steady course on foreign and oilpolicy, came a week after King Salman, 79, took the throne. Top officials from the PortsAuthority, the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the kingdom's religious police wereamong those let go late Thursday. But the oil and foreign ministers retained their key posts. Thechanges confirmed speculation that Abdullah's death "would see a reversal in his immediatefamily's fortunes," said Jon Marks, a Middle East expert at London-based think-tank ChathamHouse. "We have a situation of change in a highly personalised hierarchy, but not -- at least notimmediately -- of significant policy change." Salman also reached out directly to his subjects.One of his more than 30 decrees ordered "two months' basic salary to all Saudi government civiland military employees," the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said. Students and pensioners got similarbonuses. "Dear people: You deserve more and whatever I do will not be able to give you whatyou deserve," the king said later on his official Twitter account. He asked his citizens to "notforget me in your prayers". General Khalid bin Ali bin Abdullah Al Humaidan became the newintelligence chief, holding cabinet rank, and replacing Prince Khalid bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz AlSaud. A separate decree said Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a nephew of late Custodian of the TwoHoly Mosques King Abdullah Abdulaziz Al Saud, was removed from his posts as SecretaryGeneral of the National Security Council and adviser to the king. The council was dissolved. Twosons of the late king Abdullah were also fired: Prince Mishaal, governor of the Holy City ofMakkah region, and Prince Turki, who governed the capital Riyadh, according to the decreesbroadcast on Saudi television. Salman, a half-brother of late King Abdullah, named a 31-membercabinet whose new faces include the ministers for culture and information, social affairs, civilservice, and communications and information technology, among others. Oil Minister Ali AlNaimi, Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal, and Finance Minister Ibrahim Al Assaf stayed inthe cabinet. King Salman merged the ministries of higher education and education, namingAzzam bin Mohammed Al Dakheel to head the super-ministry. With most of the changes in thefields of education and culture, the appointments indicate that the kingdom's foreign and oilpolicies will remain unchanged. The former head of the kingdom's notorious religious police,Shaikh Abdul Latif Al Shaikh, was replaced by Abdulrahman Al Sanad. Another decree replacedthe chief of the country's stock market regulator, ahead of a mid-year target for opening theArab world's largest bourse to foreign investors. King Salman had already appointed his son,Prince Mohammed, as defence minister. Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef becamesecond in line to the throne, while Deputy Crown Prince Maqrin, 69, was elevated to king-inwaiting.Maqrin would reign as the last son of the kingdom's founder, Abdulaziz bin Saud,leaving Nayef as the first of the "second generation," or grandsons of Abdulaziz. Theappointment of Prince Mohammed bin Nayef helps to solidify control by the new king's Sudayribranch of the royal family.23 January Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has passed away at the age of 90. His crown was immediatelypassed to his younger half-brother King Salman. King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud was namedsuccessor to the throne in 2012. Salman had been chairing cabinet meetings for months as KingAbdullah grew more ill, and began representing the kingdom as he travelled for state visits inplace of Abdullah. In 2011, he was appointed Saudi’s Minister of Defence. He favours a positiverelationship with the West and is responsible for the nation’s joining of the US-led coalition tostrike ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Prior to this role, Salman was the governor of Riyadh province fornearly 50 years, working to attract tourism, capital projects and foreign investment. The newmonarch declared that he will continue the policies of his older brother. However some believethat Salman is less likely to be focused on social reform. An intercepted 2007 ambassador cable197

Global Security Reportpublished by Wikileaks states, “[Salman] pointed out that democracy should not be imposed. Hesaid that the KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] is composed of tribes and regions and if democracywere imposed, each tribe and region would have its political party.” At the age of 79, KingSalman is suffering health issues. It is known that the monarch has suffered a stroke which leftlimited movement in his left arm. There have been persistent speculation that Salman suffersfrom dementia and the Economist reports he's believed to be suffering from Alzheimer's. Saudimedia, with its close ties to the monarchy, does not publish information about the ailments ofleaders, but these have been strongly denied by the palace. The number of meetings on theKing’s official schedule suggests these prognoses may be overstated. However some argue thathis ambition to maintain stability for his country could be superseding his health concerns.Salman’s most critical issue now is addressing the turmoil in Yemen, which borders the kingdomin the south. In addition to the threat of penetration by al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula(AQAP), Yemen’s Houthi movement has taken de facto control of the nation after the presidentand cabinet stepped down last week. The group signed an agreement on 27 January to form acoalition government, however the Shiite rebel fighters are heated rivals to Saudi Arabia’s Sunnigovernment. Salman may seek to engage more proactively in Yemen in order to contain Iranianinfluence while encouraging an inclusive government. In Tehran, Iranian President HassanRouhani has pushed for better ties between the two countries. Iranian Foreign MinisterMohammad Javad Zarif has visited the kingdom for Abdullah's funeral and the formal paying ofrespects. However, Tehran may view the new monarch as unwilling to engage in détente,particularly in light of the kingdom’s perception of Iranian support of the Houthis (which Tehranhas denied) and their support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whom the Saudis areopposed to. Bernard Haykel, professor of near east studies at Princeton, has said, "Salman isquite hawkish on Iran. He's personally quite hawkish. The Iranians would have to do a lot forhim to change his policy."22 January Saudi Arabia plans to delay the public flogging of a rights activist on medical grounds, AmnestyInternational said on Thursday, raising the possibility that Riyadh may be trying to quietly dropthe punishment that has drawn international rebuke. Raef Badawi, a blogger and founder of the"Free Saudi Liberals" website, was sentenced last year to 10 years in jail, a fine of 1 million riyals($267,000) and 1,000 lashes. He was arrested in June 2012 for offenses which included ofinsulting Islam, cybercrime and disobeying his father. Badawi was subjected to the first 50lashes two weeks ago but a second round of flogging, scheduled to be held last Friday afterFriday prayers was postponed, ostensibly on medical grounds. Amnesty International said in astatement that Badawi's planned flogging on Friday will be suspended again after a medicalcommittee assessed that he should not undergo a second round of lashes on health grounds."The committee, comprised of around eight doctors, carried out a series of tests on Raef Badawiat the King Fahd Hospital in Jeddah yesterday (Wednesday) and recommended that the floggingshould not be carried out," the statement said. Political stakes over Badawi's case, whichincluded a charge of insulting Islam, have been heightened by this month's attack on CharlieHebdo newspaper in Paris and its subsequent publication of more cartoons lampooning Islam'sProphet Mohammad. The United States had called on Riyadh to cancel the sentence of 1,000lashes. Amnesty said Badawi was still at risk of flogging despite the medical report, and calledon authorities to "publicly announce an end to his flogging." It is unknown whether the kingdomwill disregard the medical advice and allow the flogging to go ahead. Update (31 January) –Saudi Arabia has postponed for a third week in a row the flogging of a blogger sentenced to1,000 lashes for insulting Islam, his wife said. Raef Badawi’s wife, Ensaf Haidar, added that thereason why he was not flogged was unclear.15 January Saudi Arabia has been constructing a 600-mile East-West barrier on its Northern Border withIraq since September. The main function of the barrier will be keeping out ISIS militants, whohave stated that among their goals is an eventual takeover of the Muslim holy cities of Meccaand Medina, both of which lie deep inside Saudi territory. This past week, a commander and twoguards on the Saudi-Iraq border were killed during an attack by Islamic State militants, the firstdirect ground assault by the group on the border. "It is the first attack by Islamic State itselfagainst Saudi Arabia and is a clear message after Saudi Arabia entered the internationalcoalition against it," Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi security analyst with close ties to Saudi Arabia's198

Global Security Reportinterior ministry said. The Saudi "Great Wall" as it's being dubbed by some media outlets, willbe a fence and ditch barrier that features soft sand embankments that is designed to slow downinfiltrators on foot and are too step to drive a tired-vehicle up. It will have 40 watchtowers andseven command and control centres complete with radar that can detect aircraft and vehiclesas far away as 22 miles as well as day and night camera installations. The barrier system willhave five layers of fencing, complete with razor wire and underground motion sensors thattrigger a silent alarm. The 600-mile structure will be patrolled by border guards and 240 rapidresponse vehicles. The Saudis sent 30,000 soldiers to patrol the border in July 2014 after ISISforces swept into western Iraq and Iraqi guards on the Saudi border fled. The Saudi Wall wasfirst proposed during the Iraq civil war in 2006, but the rise of the Islamic State, which nowcontrols large sections of Iraqi territory, prompted the Saudi government to implement the plan.5 January Four gunmen attacked a Saudi security patrol near the Iraqi border early Monday, killing threesoldiers and wounding at least three more, the kingdom's Interior Ministry said. The gunmenhad come from inside Iraq. It was the first deadly attack along Saudi Arabia's 745-mile (1,200-kilometer) border with Iraq since the kingdom joined the U.S.-led coalition conducting airstrikesagainst Islamic State militants in Syria. The IS group controls about a third of both Syria andIraq. No group immediately claimed responsibility for Monday's attack. Interior Ministryspokesman Mansour al-Turki said four "terrorists" had fired on the patrol at around 4:30 a.m.(1:30 a.m. GMT) in the Northern Borders Province. Saudi government websites said thecommander of the border guard in the area, Brig. Gen. Oud Awad al-Balawi, was among thosekilled. The Interior Ministry said the guards returned fire, killing two attackers. The other twotried to flee and hide, the ministry said. When security forces approached them, one of theattackers detonated his explosives belt and blew himself up. The fourth was shot dead bysecurity forces. The government-linked Sabq news website reported that the gunmen werearmed with hand grenades, pistols and explosive belts. Saudi military aircraft could be seenoverhead in the region throughout the day.1 January The Saudi Interior Ministry said two convicted Saudis were executed by beheading on Thursday.The executions were carried out in the north-western province of al-Juf and the eastern regionof al-Ihsa, it said. It named one of those killed as Malik bin Said al-Sayaari and said he had arepeat conviction for hashish smuggling. According to the news agency tallies, at least 83 peoplewere beheaded in Saudi Arabia last year, up on 79 executions recorded by AmnestyInternational in 2013. Beheading is the usual method used in Saudi Arabia for crimes punishableby death, such as rape, murder, armed robbery and apostasy or insulting the prophetMohammed. Last August, Amnesty International condemned what it called a "disturbing surge"in executions in Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities have repeatedly rejected calls to halt thekingdom's use of the death penalty, saying executions deter would-be offenders. One of thoseexecuted in Riyadh in early December was a migrant Filipino worker who had been accused offatally shooting his Saudi employer. The Philippines government later said it had tried to stopthat execution. Saudi Arabia ranks fourth behind China, Iran and Iraq for executions performedlast year in the name of a national state. The United States was fifth.Syria31 January Tens of thousands of long-time Palestinian refugees in a camp on the outskirts of the Syriancapital have been cut off from United Nations emergency aid for nearly two months by armedgroups that are preventing access, a U.N. official said. Up to 18,000 people are living inside thedevastated Yarmouk camp, which is caught between government forces and Syrian insurgentgroups including al Qaeda's Nusra Front. Food, water and medicine are scarce. Last year "adegree of cooperation" allowed aid to enter after several months of being blocked, but accesshas again vanished with a deterioration of security, said Pierre Kraehenbuehl, head of the U.N.'sagency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. "We really haven't been able to bring in any assistancesince early December," he said. Yarmouk was home to more half a million Palestinian refugeesbefore Syria's conflict began in 2011. Most have fled abroad or to elsewhere in Syria. Those whostayed face worsening conditions, including price rises and a severe winter, Kraehenbuehl said."They can't withstand too many shocks at the same time," he said. Kraehenbuehl said he had199

Global Security Reporturged Lebanese officials to allow Palestinians fleeing Syria to enter. About 44,000 Palestiniansfrom Syria are now living in Lebanon, but tighter entry restrictions have meant that few havebeen able to enter since May. Lebanon also hosts 1.5 million Syrians who fled the war, giving itthe highest number of refugees per capita in the world. Hospitality has worn thin in a countrywith a creaking infrastructure and tense security environment. More than 60 years ago Lebanontook in Palestinian refugees from the war of Israel's creation. The population grew to hundredsof thousands, many now living in dilapidated settlements. The militarization of Palestiniancamps was widely seen as a catalyst of Lebanon's own 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.Kraehenbuehl also voiced concern about Gaza, where the U.N. agency said last week that a lackof money had forced it to suspend payments to Palestinians for repairs to homes damaged inlast summer's war with Israel. Donors had paid only around $100 million of the $720 millionneeded, he said.30 January International investigators say the destruction of Syria's chemical weapons production facilitieshas begun. The latest report by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons saysthe destruction of the 12 facilities is expected to be complete by the end of June. The destructionis a key part of the elimination of Syria's chemical weapons stockpile as ordered by the U.N.Security Council in September 2013. The OPCW has already reported that all of Syria's declaredchemical weapons have been removed from the country for their destruction, though concernsremain that Syria didn't declare everything it had. The OPCW continues to look into allegationsof the use of chlorine "for hostile purposes" in Syria.26 January Kurdish forces have driven Islamic State (IS) militants from Kobane, officials say, ending a fourmonthbattle for the northern Syrian town. Fighters from the Popular Protection Units (YPG)were said to have entered outlying areas in the east of the town after the jihadists retreated. TheUS said anti-IS forces were in control of 90% of the town. Tens of thousands of people fled overthe nearby border with Turkey after ISIS launched an offensive in September, capturing about300 nearby villages before entering the predominantly Kurdish town itself. The fighting has leftat least 1,600 people dead, among them 1,196 militants.Members of the Syrian opposition meeting in Moscow on Monday said they aimed to work outcommon demands to present to the Damascus government when its representatives join themlater this week in an attempt to revive peace efforts. Expectations of a breakthrough are low.The talks have been spurned by key political opposition and do not involve the main insurgentgroups fighting on the ground nearly four years into the war in Syria. Opposition members whorefused to attend cited Moscow's long-standing backing for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad astheir main reason, saying the talks were aimed at propping up the man they want to leave power."We are trying to create an atmosphere of trust, between all sides, including the regime, andwith all who are trying to create a ceasefire," Majid Habbo, a senior member of the oppositionNational Coordination Committee said in Moscow. Many of the more than 30 opposition figuresattending are from a Damascus-based official opposition tolerated by Assad and are viewed astraitors by his armed enemies in the conflict, which has killed more than 200,000 and displacedmillions. Habbo said through a translator: "Russia is an ally of the regime and an importantplayer in the conflict. We hope they will hear our views and help put pressure on Assad." He saidthe opposition would seek progress on alleviating the plight of civilians and freeing politicalprisoners. Even the Russian hosts laid out modest expectations for the talks, due to be joined bySyrian government representatives on Wednesday. The fate of Assad remains a major stickingpoint in the conflict, in which Islamic State militants now control large swathes of Syria andneighbouring Iraq.24 January A video released Saturday purportedly announced the execution of one of the two Japanesehostages being held by the militant group Islamic State in Syria. Japanese officials condemnedthe apparent execution of Haruna Yukawa, a 42-year-old unemployed widower who went toSyria in July and was captured the next month. “This act of terrorism is an outrageous andunacceptable act of violence,” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters. “I feel a strong sense ofanger and firmly condemn this. I again strongly demand the immediate release of Mr. Kenji Gotounharmed.” Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani said officials verified the video and a photo200

Global Security Reportshown on it. The video, which was released on YouTube before being deleted, showed an imageof Goto, a veteran war correspondent, wearing an orange t-shirt over an audio recording of Gotoapparently speaking in English, saying that Yukawa had been executed and that ISIS demandeda prisoner exchange by Jordanian authorities for Goto to be spared. Friends and colleagues ofGoto said he went to Syria in late October seeking to secure Yukawa’s release, for which ISISmilitants had previously demanded $200 million. But militants on a website affiliated with theIslamic State group disagreed about the message’s authenticity. U.S. intelligence agencies werealso working to verify the authenticity of the recording Saturday, U.S. National Security Councildeputy spokesman Patrick Ventrell said in a statement. If the video’s authenticity is confirmed,it would be the first time Islamic State, which has beheaded several foreign hostages, has issueda recording rather than a video to announce such a killing.23 January More than 30 people have been killed in air strikes by Syrian government warplanes near thecapital Damascus, activists say. Six children were among 32 people who died in several raids onthe suburb of Hamouriyeh, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. Syriangovernment officials have yet to comment on the incident. Witnesses said the strikes hit a busypublic square in a rebel-held district of Hamouriyeh in eastern Ghouta. The raid had targeted apopular market.19 January Syria has started the long-delayed destruction of a dozen underground bunkers and hangarsthat were used for the production and storage of chemical weapons, diplomatic sources said.Damascus last year handed over 1,300 metric tonnes of toxic agents after joining theOrganisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), but it is months behind schedulein destroying the facilities used to make and store its deadly stockpile. The site will be sealed offwith cement walls by the end of January, said one source in The Hague, where the globalchemical weapons watchdog is based. Syria joined the OPCW after a sarin gas attack killed morethan 1,000 people in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta on August 21, 2013, prompting threats ofmilitary intervention by the United States, which blamed President Bashar al-Assad'sgovernment. Assad's government and rebels blamed each other. U.S. President Barack Obamacalled off military action against Damascus after Syria agreed to destroy its chemical stockpiles.A year later the United States began a bombing campaign against Islamic State militants in Syriawith the tacit approval of Assad, which still continues. The head of the OPCW is expected toprovide an update on the destruction of Syria's production and storage sites, part of itsobligations under OPCW membership, to foreign governments at closed door meetings in TheHague on Wednesday. The technical details of how the seven hangars are to be demolished withexplosives are still being drawn up with experts at the OPCW, the sources said. Repeated delaysin destroying the facilities led to protests from Washington last month, when the U.S.representative to the OPCW, Bob Mikulak, called on Syria to speed up the process under tighteroutside monitoring. An OPCW fact finding mission has been investigating the use of chlorinebombs, which have killed and injured dozens of people in Syrian villages in violation of theChemical Weapons Convention and U.N. Security Council resolutions on Syria. Syria deniesallegations by Western governments that it withheld part of its chemical weapons stockpile.Western diplomats said Syria has failed to provide any documentation about the chemicalweapons program, which was built up over decades and produced mass quantities of toxic nerveagents for warfare.16 January At least 1,607 people have died in fighting in Syria’s Kurdish stronghold of Kobane in the lastfour months, according to a monitoring group, with fighting flaring today as Islamic Statemilitants sought to regain lost territory. Those killed since 16 September include 1,091 militantsand 462 Kurdish guerrillas. Thirty-two civilians have died in Kobane, also known as Ayn al-Arab.At one point during the fighting, Islamic State controlled more than half the town, RamiAbdurrahman, SOHR’s chief, said by phone. The Kurdish resistance are now better armed andhave been bolstered by U.S.-led airstrikes on militant positions. The Kurds now have controlover 80 percent of Kobane, he said. The city’s fall would’ve extended Islamic State’s grip onterritory along Syria’s border with NATO-member Turkey and delivered a blow to Kurdishautonomy in the region.201

Global Security Report15 January Two Italian aid workers have been freed in Syria and will return home soon, Italian officialsannounced Thursday. The premier's office announced the release of 21-year-old Greta Ramelliand 20-year-old Vanessa Marzullo on Twitter, adding that "they will return soon to Italy." TheForeign Ministry confirmed the news, but was unable immediately to provide details of theirrelease. The women, from the northern Lombardy region, disappeared in the northern Syrianprovince of Aleppo in late July or early August. It wasn't clear at the time who had taken them.The two aid workers appeared in a video released earlier this month, asking the Italiangovernment to help bring them home, with Ramelli saying they could be killed. Marzullo held apiece of paper with the date December 17, 2014, written on it. Another Italian, the Rev. PaoloDall'Oglio, a Jesuit priest who had lived for decades in Syria, has been missing in Syria since July2013 after traveling to meet Islamic militants who now rule the eastern city of Raqqa.Kidnappings in opposition-held territory have become common, particularly since mid-2013when militant groups began to gain greater influence among rebels in Syria. The Islamic Stateextremist group and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front are believed to be responsible for mostof the kidnappings, but criminal gangs and government-backed militias also have been involved,with various motives. The kidnappings have included local and international journalists as wellas aid workers. Some of those who have spent lengthy time in captivity have later been released,including at least four French and two Spanish journalists as well as one American who werefreed last year. Others haven't been as fortunate. The Islamic State group last year beheadedthree American and two British hostages it held in Syria.12 January The suspected female accomplice of Islamist militants behind attacks in Paris was in Turkey fivedays before the killings and crossed into Syria on January 8, Turkish officials said on Monday.France launched a search for 26-year-old Hayat Boumeddiene after police killed her partnerAmedy Coulibaly while storming a Jewish supermarket where he had taken hostages.Authorities described her as armed and dangerous. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in aninterview on state-run Anatolian news agency's website, said Boumeddiene had arrived inIstanbul from Madrid on January 2. Turkey had received no request from Paris to deny heraccess. "There is footage (of her) at the airport. Later on, she stayed at a hotel with anotherperson and crossed into Syria on January 8. We can tell that based on telephone records," hesaid. Those dates would put Boumeddiene in Turkey before the violence in Paris began, andleaving for Syria while the attackers were still hiding from police. Turkish Prime Minister AhmetDavutoglu, speaking at a press conference in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, saidTurkey could not blamed for allowing Boumeddiene to travel through its territory because ithad not been asked to bar her. "Is it Turkey's fault that it has borders with Syria?" Davutoglusaid, adding Turkey has kept its 900-km-long border with Syria open to allow in more than 1.6million refugees since the conflict there began in 2011. "We need to receive intelligence first sowe can track people. We have 7,000 people on a no-entry list and deported 2,000, includingFrench and German citizens," Davutoglu said. Syrian state television quoted a source at theForeign Ministry as saying Cavusoglu's comments were a "clear formal confession that Turkeyis still the main crossing for foreign terrorists into Syria." Damascus has repeatedly accusedTurkey of supporting Islamist militants during the civil war and allowing fighters to cross itsborder. Turkey denies enabling passage of foreign fighters who have swollen the ranks ofterrorist factions.6 January A top figure in Islamic State's self-declared police force, which has carried out beheadings, washimself found decapitated in eastern Syria, a monitoring group said. The man was an Egyptiannational and was known as the deputy "emir" of the al-Hesbah force in a Syrian province, theBritish-based the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Tuesday. His body, whichshowed signs of torture, was found near a power plant in al-Mayadeen city in the Deir-al-Zorprovince, it said, citing contacts on the ground. "We do not know whether Islamic State killedhim or whether it was local people or other fighters," said Rami Abdulrahman, who runs theObservatory, which reports on events in Syria through a network of contacts on the ground."Either way it is important, because he was a very important man," he said, adding that hebelieved it was the first time that an al-Hesbah member had been killed in this way. TheObservatory said the message "This is evil, you Sheikh" was found written on the corpse, whichhad a cigarette in its mouth. Residents in areas controlled by Islamic State have said the group202

Global Security Reporthas banned smoking in public. Islamic State has fought with other insurgents and cracked downon local populations. It has also killed its own members for what it describes as violations.5 January Syria has complained to the United Nations that U.S. Senator John McCain, former FrenchForeign Minister Bernard Kouchner and former U.S. diplomat Peter Galbraith entered thecountry without visas in separate visits in violation of its sovereignty. Syria's U.N. ambassador,Bashar Ja'afari, called on U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the 15-member SecurityCouncil to pressure governments to take "the necessary measures against their nationals whoenter Syrian territory illegally." "Such actions are a blatant violation of Syria's sovereignty andof the resolutions of the Security Council concerning Syria," Ja'afari wrote in a letter datedDecember 30. He complained generally about "certain journalists and prominent figures"entering Syria illegally but singled out McCain for entering Syria in June 2013. McCain, a formerRepublican presidential candidate, visited Syria in May 2013 and met with some Syrian rebels,his spokesman said at the time. Ja'afari also cited Kouchner for visiting in November 2014,Galbraith for traveling to Syria in December 2014 with other U.S. political and military leaders,and former Kuwaiti politician Walid al-Tabtaba'i for entering Syria in September 2013.4 January Al Qaeda-linked fighters battled with members of Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Syrianarmy in a mountainous area on the Syria-Lebanon border on Saturday, leading to deaths on bothsides, security sources said. Three Hezbollah fighters, five Syrian soldiers and more than 15members of al Qaeda’s Syria wing Nusra Front were killed when Nusra attacked Flita, a villagejust inside Syria in the Qalamoun mountain range, Lebanese and Syrian security sources said.The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Nusra Front had attackedHezbollah and the Syrian army with mortar fire and that the Syrian military responded byshelling areas in the Qalamoun area. Shi’ite Muslim group Hezbollah has sent thousands offighters to support Syria’s army in the conflict and has regularly clashed with Sunni Islamistgroups like Nusra and Islamic State. The head of Lebanon’s security apparatus told Reuters thatmilitants in the Qalamoun Mountains were seeking to gain control of nearby Lebanese villagesto support their fighting positions. Fighting from Syria spilled into Lebanon several times lastyear. Islamic State and Syria’s al Qaeda wing attacked the border town of Arsal in August andtook Lebanese soldiers captive, and gunmen, including some linked to Islamic State, clashedwith the army in Tripoli in October.1 January More than 76,000 people were killed in fighting in Syria last year, making 2014 the deadliestyear in the four-year-old civil war, according to the UK-based activist group Syrian Observatoryfor Human Rights. The group said the 2014 death toll of 76,021 is slightly up from 2013's toll of73,000. More than 200,000 have been killed since the conflict began in 2011. Civilians accountedfor 17,790 of the deaths, while about 17,000 were fighters from militant groups, including theIslamic State and al-Nusra Front. Another 15,000 fighters killed in fighting came from moderaterebel groups and other Islamist factions. Syrian soldiers and militias loyal to Syrian PresidentBashar Assad accounted for 22,627 of the deaths, according to the human rights group.A well-known New Zealand militant fighting for ISIS has made a social media mistake while inSyria, accidentally tweeting with his geotagging still active. Numerous sources online say MarkTaylor, known as Abu Abdul-Rahman, forgot to turn off his geo-location while travelling acrossSyria using his account @M_Taylor_Kiwi. Taylor tweeted 45 times and broadcast his changinglocation, giving vital intelligence information to government agencies. A social media jihadmonitor based in Canada known as Ibrabo claims to have captured all of the posts prior to theirremoval. The site goes on to discuss what it believes is the value of the intelligence theycontained. The blog post Ibrabo states: "The benefit of material like this when examining foreignfighters is it allows investigators to establish the extent to which an individual is tied to aterrorist group like Daesh (ISIS). In this manner they can better justify potential criminalcharges against the individual and at the very least build grounds for their detention andinvestigation upon their return." The post, which analyses the tweets and the activity of thefighter, claims that the tweets show that in October he was fighting in Kafar Roma, "an area203

Global Security ReportTurkeywhich the Syrian Army confirmed had been occupied by pockets of foreign fighters from ISIS."It added: "From his broadcasts during the first two weeks in October we know that his tweetsceased about the same time the Syrian army made a strong push into the area."20 January A series of false bomb scares in Istanbul, Turkey's most populated city, have challenged police,who are warning the public not to dump their old suitcases or garbage in crowded areas after"bombs" defused in four separate instances over the past two days turned out to be false alarms.The city is on edge after a suicide bombing in Sultanahmet Square earlier this month that killedone policeman. A week earlier police discovered two bombs in the Maltepe and Fatih districts.A homemade explosive device was found in Maltepe, near a police station, with a note attributedto the terrorist organization PKK. Experts defused it, but a second bomb exploded near a powertransformer in Fatih on the city's European side, although there were no casualties. As the citybreathed a sigh of relief, a large bag casually dumped on the roadside near a busy metrobusstation in Zincirlikuyu on Monday, raised concerns. Police were called to the scene andconducted a controlled explosion of the bag. The contents of the bag were found to be a smallstand and a number of bootlegged cigarettes. Bootlegged cigarette sellers frequent the area andsometimes dump their stash when municipal police raid their stalls. Hours later, another bombalert was reported in the district of Yenikapı. A suspicious bag was sighted at a Marmaraystation, Police sealed off the station before defusing the "bomb." This time, empty boxes werefound inside the bag. Two more suspicious packages turned up in Sarıyer and Eyüp. A suitcaseplaced on top of a car's trunk in Eyüp prompted concerned citizens to alert the police, whoseized it, only to find it empty. Another empty bag was torn apart by a bomb squad in Sarıyer afew hours later after it was spotted near a traffic sign in Sarıyer's Tarabya neighbourhood.18 January A bomb exploded in central Istanbul on Sunday, and police detonated two others in controlledexplosions. No one was injured when a homemade bomb left near a power substation in Fatihdistrict exploded. Meanwhile, a bomb disposal unit safely detonated a similar device in theMaltepe district on the city's Asian side that was left beneath a statue of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,the founder of the secular Turkish Republic. Police also deactivated a package containing a bombthat had been left at a bus stop in the working-class suburb of Sultangazi. The two bombsdisposed of by police had messages that linked them to Kurdish groups. Police were notimmediately available to confirm the reports. Kurdish separatists, Islamist radicals and far-leftgroups have all staged deadly bomb attacks in Istanbul, Turkey's biggest city and a majorEuropean tourist destination. A suicide bomber killed herself and a police officer on Jan. 6 inSultanahmet, Istanbul's historic centre. The hard-left Revolutionary People's Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C) claimed responsibility, then retracted the claim and said a mistake had arisenbecause it was planning another attack. Since then, media have cited police sources as sayingthe bomber in Sultanahmet was a Russian citizen from the Muslim regions of Chechnya orDagestan with links to Islamic State. Hundreds of fighters from Russia's north Caucasus,including Chechnya, are believed to have travelled through Turkey to fight with the Islamic Statein Syria and Iraq, and European governments have urged Ankara to tighten border controls toprevent the flow of foreign fighters.10 January Homemade explosive devices have been found in two shopping malls in Istanbul, days after adeadly suicide bombing in the city centre and the attacks in Paris. Passers-by noticed thesuspicious package at the shopping mall in Başakşehir, a western suburb of Istanbul. After policeofficers cordoned off the area, a bomb disposal team arrived in the scene and confirmed that thedevice was a "fragmentation bomb" reinforced with butane fuel refills. The security teamdefused the bomb and took it to the forensics laboratory for the investigation. Meanwhile,butane fuel refills have been found in another shopping centre in the nearby Sefaköyneighbourhood. Police opted to detonate the relatively less damaging explosive, after cordoningoff the area, Turkish media reported. No one has claimed responsibility for the bombs so far.Turkish authorities have been on alert since a female suicide bomber detonated herself at anIstanbul police station in the touristic area of Sultanahmet, killing a policeman on Jan. 6. Theoutlawed Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C) had initially claimed the204

Global Security Reportsuicide bombing, a week after it organized another attack on the city’s police. But it was revealedlater that the suicide bomber was a Russian citizen of Daghestani origin, reportedly related withIslamist groups. In the investigation for the Sultanahmet attack, Turkey is probing a possiblelink to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), while offering assistance to the Frenchauthorities for the Charlie Hebdo massacre and the violent incidents in Paris that followed it.6 January A female suicide bomber has blown herself up in the Turkish city of Istanbul, killing one policeofficer and injuring another, officials say. She targeted a police station in the tourist hub ofSultanahmet, near the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia museum. The woman spoke English with"a thick accent", but her nationality and identity remained unknown, Istanbul governor VasipSahin told Turkish TV. No group has yet said it was behind the attack, the second on police in aweek. Police arrested a man who threw grenades and fired a weapon at officers near the primeminister's office last Thursday, but no-one was injured in that attack. Police sealed off an areain the historic district, where the Blue Mosque and the Hagia Sophia museum are located. MrSahin said the woman, dressed in a niqab, entered the police station and told officers she hadlost her wallet before detonating the bomb. The attack briefly shut down public transportaround the historic Sultanahmet square, a popular tourist destination visited by thousands ofpeople every day. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters he had ordered "themost comprehensive investigation" into whether there was a link to any group. Turkey is onhigh alert - and the latest incident is a stark reminder of the many security challenges that thiscountry must now confront. Update (16 January) - More details have emerged about the lifeand possible Islamic State affiliations of Diana Ramazova, the Russian citizen identified byTurkish media as the suicide bomber who attacked a police station in Istanbul’s historicSultanahmet quarter last week, killing one officer and wounding another. According to the dailynewspaper Hürriyet, 18-year-old Ramazova changed her life after meeting Abu AluevitsjEdelbijev, a Norwegian citizen of Chechen origin, on an online forum. The paper says she startedwearing an Islamic veil and led a religiously conservative lifestyle. The couple allegedly met inTurkey, and were later married by a religious official in Turkey or Syria. Turkish border policerecords show that Ramazova entered Turkey in May 2014 as a tourist, whereas there is no traceof her husband crossing the Turkish border, fuelling suspicion that he entered irregularly. Thecouple then spent three months “on honeymoon” in Istanbul. Police have been sifting throughRamazova’s and Edelbijev’s photographs taken in Turkey and Syria, trying to establish theirmovements and whether the couple were in contact with a third person while residing inIstanbul. Norwegian and Turkish security sources claim the couple left Turkey for Syria last July,where they joined the ranks of ISIS, taking on the noms de guerre Idris and Sumeyra. In October,Norwegian anti-terror police opened an investigation against Edelbijev and one of his friendssuspected of being members of ISIS, and his accounts in the country were subsequently frozen.In December, Edelbijev was allegedly killed fighting for ISIS. On 26 December, widowedRamazova illegally crossed the Syrian border back into Turkey, where she went first toGaziantep and later to Istanbul, reportedly by taxi. It remains unclear whether she establishedcontact with other ISIS militants inside Turkey, or where she found the money for the taxi ridealmost 1,250 miles across the country and where she allegedly procured the two hand grenadesused for the attack on the Sultanahmet police station. She stayed in an Istanbul hotel until 6January, where she made contact with a woman of Russian origin. Ramazova, who was twomonths pregnant, died during the attempt to detonate the grenades in front of the Istanbultourism police station, killing one police officer and wounding another.1 January The Turkish police arrested an armed man on Thursday after he tried to attack a palace complexnear the prime minister’s office in Istanbul. The man, who is suspected of being a member of aterrorist organization, threw two homemade grenades at police officers in front of theDolmabahce Palace. When the bombs failed to detonate, he tried to shoot at the officers with agun. No injuries have been reported. Dolmabahce Palace was once the residence of MustafaKemal Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey. It was not immediately clear whether PrimeMinister Ahmet Davutoglu was in his office at the time of the attempted attack. Istanbul’s policechief, Selami Altinok, told reporters that the assailant was a former convict and a suspectedterrorist, who was imprisoned from 2003 to 2006. He did not disclose the charges against theman or reveal his identity because an investigation was still underway. “Two hand grenades205

Global Security ReportUnited Arab Emiratesthat he hurled against the police on duty did not explode,” Mr. Altinok said. “He was quicklyoverpowered.” The man was found to be carrying an automatic weapon and a pistol, but securityforces in the area quickly mobilized and seized the weapons, local news media reported.27 January A bullet hit the fuselage of a FlyDubai airliner on its descent into Baghdad, lightly wounding ayoung girl and prompting many carriers on Tuesday to suspend their flights, officials said.“There was no consequence other than a slight injury to a young girl. The pilot landed and hewas not aware of what had happened,” Transport Minister Baqr Jabr al-Zubaidi told reportersat the airport. Flight FZ215 was hit by “small arms fire” before landing on Monday but allpassengers disembarked safely, a FlyDubai spokesperson said. The no-frills carrier, a sister firmof Emirates, said it was working with Iraqi authorities to investigate the incident, adding that itwould continue to fly to its other destinations in Iraq. Other UAE carriers, including Emirates,Etihad and Air Arabia, suspended their flights to Baghdad, as did Turkish Airlines and Lebanon’sMiddle East Airlines (MEA). “After landing at Baghdad International Airport (BGW) on Jan 26,2015, damage to the aircraft fuselage consistent with small arms fire was discovered on flightFZ 215,” a company spokesman said. The aviation official said Iraq had briefly suspended airtraffic on Monday following the incident but that most flights had resumed on Tuesday morning.Earlier, Emirates Airlines said it suspended flights to the Iraqi capital on Tuesday, according toan Emirates executive. Etihad Airways has suspended all flights to the Iraqi city with immediateeffect and until further notice. The website of Sharjah-based budget carrier Air Arabia alsoshowed that flights to Baghdad were not available. MEA chief executive officer Mohammad al-Hout said Tuesday’s Beirut-Baghdad service had been cancelled, although the airline’s flights toother Iraqi cities were continuing as normal. “As far as tomorrow’s (flight) is concerned, we arewaiting to assess the situation and see what steps are going to be taken before deciding.”Baghdad airport staff confirmed there had been disruption to flights after Monday’s incident.Baghdad International Airport is located west of the capital, near the province of Anbar, whichis largely controlled by ISIS fighters.16 January A shipping insurer has warned that oil cargoes loaded ship to ship at a port in the UAE maycontain Iranian crude disguised as Iraqi barrels, and that it cannot insure these volumes as theyare in breach of U.S. sanctions on Tehran. Insurer West of England sent a letter to its membersthis week stating that Iranian crude labelled as Iraqi oil was being transferred ship to ship (STS)by smugglers at the Khor Fakkan port. "It appears that such oil may routinely be described asbeing of Iraqi origin and as having been loaded on board the transferring vessel at Basra sometime before the proposed STS operation," the insurer said in a letter dated January 13. Theinsurer said it "cannot provide insurance to vessels which load Iranian cargo in suchcircumstances and cover will cease in its entirety if such cargo is loaded". West of England saidthat documentation of barrels labelled as originating from Basra in Iraq, and which stopped overat Khor Fakkan, should not be taken at face value. "There is evidence of a sophisticatedsmuggling operation and those responsible may go to considerable lengths to disguise the trueorigin of the cargo," the insurer said in the letter on its website. The insurer said in the letterthat Iranian vessels loaded with crude had shuttled across the Strait of Hormuz to supply shipswith oil labelled as originating from Iraq and destined for countries that do not benefit from awaiver of U.S. sanctions legislation. The insurer warned its members that transport of Iranianoil without a waiver under U.S. law "may trigger enforcement action against the vessel, itsowners and related parties by the U.S. authorities". West of England advised its members "toexercise extreme caution when engaging in STS operations in the Arabian Gulf". It alsorecommended that its members check with port agents to ensure that vessels providing cargoby means of an STS transfer in the region loaded the cargo at the port stated in itsdocumentation.13 January The energy minister for the United Arab Emirates said Tuesday there are no plans for OPEC tocurb production to shore up falling crude prices, and instead put the onus on shale oil drillersfor oversupplying the market. Oil prices have lost well over half their value since late June, withbenchmark U.S. crude trading below $45 a barrel. OPEC, which includes the Emirates, decided206

Global Security ReportYemenat its last meeting in November to keep production levels unchanged, despite calls from somefrom within the 12-member bloc to curb output to boost prices. The position of the cartel's ArabGulf producers is that scaling back production would only erode their market share and benefitrivals, such as shale drillers in the U.S. "I think the strategy will not change," Emirati EnergyMinister Suhail Bin Mohammed al-Mazroui told the Gulf Intelligence energy conference in AbuDhabi. "By not panicking and readjusting or cutting the output from the OPEC countries, we aretelling the market and the other producers that they need to be rational. They need to be likeOPEC," he said. "They need to look at growth in the international market for oil and they needto cater the additional production for that growth." He said that if OPEC were to cut output by amillion or more barrels per day, the gap in the market would have been filled by shale oil drillers"in a few months." Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meanwhile warned that OPEC's largestproducer Saudi Arabia would suffer from the price drops and come to "regret it." "The fall in oilprices will not put Iran under strain," Rouhani said in a nationally-televised speech from outsidethe Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran. Plunging oil prices have compounded theeffects of international sanctions imposed over Tehran's nuclear program, which the West haslong suspected is aimed at producing a weapons capability, allegations vehemently denied byTehran. Iran has indirectly blamed the Sunni kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a regional rival, forplotting the freefall in oil prices by refusing to curb production. The Shiite powerhouse says athird of its budget this year will come from oil revenues, in comparison to last year's 50 percent.Iran, Venezuela and Iraq are among OPEC's most vulnerable members, as they require oil to staywell above $100 a barrel to cover budgetary obligations. Non-OPEC member Russia has alsobeen deeply affected. Venezuela's president toured OPEC nations this week to drum up supportfor a production cut, starting in Iran before heading to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Arab Gulfcountries heavily rely on oil revenues, but also have strong fiscal reserves from years of high oilprices to sustain spending levels and carry them through the current market glut. The UAE's al-Mazroui said his country stands by OPEC's decision to keep output levels the same. He said theorganization will wait until its next meeting in June before considering any change in strategy.28 January Yemen's Ansarullah fighters, also known as Houthis, have released Yemeni president’s chief ofstaff, 10 days after his arrest. Yemen has been the scene of tensions since the Shia fightersabducted Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak on January 17.The official was handed over to a committeeof mediators on Tuesday. Ansarullah had accused Mubarak of being an agent for the UnitedStates. His detention sparked clashes in the capital Sana'a, following which President AbdRabbuh Mansur Hadi and his cabinet ministers resigned. The impoverished Arab country iscurrently grappling with a severe political crisis between the central government andAnsarullah fighters. UN envoy Jamel Benomar voiced his happiness at Mubarak's release, urgingthe Houthis to "take all measures that could reassure other political groups and the Yemenipeople." The leader of Houthi movement has, meanwhile, accused some foreign powers ofconspiring against Yemen and its nation amid the political tensions in the Arab country.Addressing thousands of his supporters in the northern city of Sa’ada on Tuesday, Abdul-Malikal-Houthi censured political factions in cahoots with some regional states, noting that they wantto ignite conflicts and create problems in Yemen.27 January The U.S. State Department has announced the closure of their embassy in Sanaa. "Due to therecent resignation of the Yemeni president, prime minister, and cabinet, and the ongoingsecurity concerns, the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa is unable to provide routine consular services andwill have very limited ability to assist with emergency cases involving U.S. citizens," thedepartment said in a statement Monday. "The U.S. Embassy will be closed to the public untilfurther notice out of an abundance of caution and care for our employees and others who maybe visiting the Embassy. We are continuously analysing the security conditions and will resumeconsular operations as soon as our analysis indicates we are able to do so safely."26 January A US drone strike targeted al-Qaeda in Yemen on Monday, signalling Washington'sdetermination to keep fighting militants despite political paralysis in the nation. A drone missilehit a vehicle carrying three al-Qaeda members near the boundary with Shabwa province, an al-207

Global Security ReportQaeda stronghold. The strike killed two Yemeni fighters and a Saudi. Of the two Yemenis, one isa teenager whose father and brother were killed in earlier drone strikes. The drone strike wasthe first since Yemen's President Hadi resigned along with his Cabinet on Thursday. Theprospect of a leaderless Yemen has raised concerns about Washington's ability to continuetargeting AQAP. Yemen's president was a vocal proponent for the U.S. war against al-Qaeda,saying at one point that he approved each strike at a time. It is unclear how the Houthis' takeoverwould impact on the drone operation. Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren stressed onMonday that the counter-terrorism operation will continue, including training of Yemeni forces,though "they are curtailed in some cases." He did not give details. He added that Saudi —notYemeni — intelligence is playing the vital role in recruiting informants and collectinginformation on the whereabouts and movement of al-Qaeda members. The drone campaign hashad its pitfalls; civilians are sometimes killed or badly wounded in the crossfire, feeding anti-American sentiment among large sectors of Yemenis and prompting disgruntled tribesmen tobecome easy recruits for al-Qaeda. Drone strikes are just one leg in an elaborate counterterrorismoperation.23 January Yemen's President resigned Thursday night, shortly after his prime minister and the Cabinetstepped down. Seismic changes come just one day after the government and Houthi rebelsstruck a tentative peace deal meant to end days of turmoil. The resignations of Yemeni PresidentAbdu Rabu Mansour Hadi and other officials are the latest fallout from the Houthis' move inrecent days to gain power in the capital, which included kidnapping Hadi's chief of staff onSaturday and taking over the presidential palace on Tuesday. The Cabinet and Prime MinisterKhaled Bahah resigned before Hadi did on Thursday night, with Bahah telling Hadi in a letterthat they essentially wanted to wash their hands of "destructive political chaos," an apparentreference to the deal that was to give Houthis more power. We resigned "so that we are notmade party to what is going on and what will happen," Bahah wrote in the letter, which YemeniInformation Minister Nadia Sakkaf posted on Twitter. Hadi's resignation came soon afterward.It wasn't immediately clear who would succeed Hadi. The Houthi rebels, Shiite Muslims whohave long felt marginalized in the majority Sunni country, kidnapped presidential Chief of StaffAhmed bin Mubarak in the capital, Sanaa, on Saturday. The rebels then took over thepresidential palace Tuesday, prompting talk of a coup. The tentative deal reached Wednesdaycalled for bin Mubarak's release, as well as measures to give the Houthis more political power,according to a Yemeni official with access to a draft text of the agreement. But by Thursday,before the top officials quit, Sakkaf questioned whether the rebels would live up to their side ofthe pact. "Ahmed Mubarak is still #Houthis hostage despite deal. They got what they want whyshould they fulfil their promise?" she said on Twitter.The State Department is pulling more embassy staff out of Yemen after President Abd RabbuhMansur Hadi, a major U.S. backed ally, and his cabinet resigned en masse Thursday. The movesurprised U.S. officials and increased the likelihood that the country would become a bigger safehaven for al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and other militants. State Departmentspokeswoman Jen Psaki issued a statement late Thursday night calling on “all sides to avoidviolence” and recalled how democratic gains the Yemeni people demanded in 2011 have nowbeen eroded but offered no indication that the U.S. would intervene. “The future of Yemenshould be determined by the Yemeni people in accordance with Yemen’s constitution and theNational Dialogue Conference outcomes,” Psaki said. “All Yemenis have both a right andresponsibility to peacefully participate in this process. The United States remains firmlycommitted to supporting all Yemenis in this endeavour.”More than half of Yemen’s population needs aid and a humanitarian crisis of extremeproportions is at risk of unfolding in the country if instability continues, Oxfam warns.Throughout the country there are 16 million people in need of aid, meaning one in three peopleneeding help in the entire Middle East is Yemeni. Ten million Yemenis do not have enough toeat, including 850,000 acutely malnourished children. Millions have no clean water and areunable to access basic healthcare services. Oxfam has urged the international community to domore to support national and regional bodies to bring a sustainable end to the conflict in Yemenand to increase donations to the vital humanitarian response. Grace Ommer, Oxfam’s Country208

Global Security ReportDirector in Yemen said: “It is simply unacceptable that the real story of 16 million Yemenis inneed of help keeps going unnoticed. Despite the challenges, we continue to deliver desperatelyneeded aid to Yemenis in some of the poorest areas outside the capital. But if the internationalcommunity continues to stand by and watch while Yemen risks going from a fragile to a failedstate we will find it even harder to maintain this lifesaving support.”22 January ISIS is believed to be recruiting inside Yemen. According to a Yemeni official, ISIS has a presencein at least three provinces in southern and central Yemen, and there is now a "real competition"between ISIS and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. One U.S. counter-terror official stressed theview that AQAP remains the dominant force there. American intelligence believes that whilethere may be a smattering of ISIS loyalists among Sunni extremists in Yemen, they are likely"mid-level AQAP militants who are sympathetic to ISIL's vision but haven't broken ranks." ISISmay be using its financial strength to win over some of AQAP's potential recruits by claimingthey can fund operations better than AQAP can at the moment.21 January Despite a tentative cease-fire that was put in place a day earlier, Houthi rebels stormed thepresidential palace complex and shelled the private home of President Hadi. Houthi fightersreplaced the guards at the president's residence. "President Hadi is still in his home. There is noproblem, he can leave," said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi politburo. Hadiwas contacted by US officials and assured them he is “fine.” A Yemeni official said the Presidentdoes not consider himself a captive, adding that the Houthis were assisting Hadi's security detailin their protection mission because part of the detail had run away because of the fighting. Whilethe actions of the Houthis had the appearance of a coup, they stopped short of removingPresident Hadi. Yemen’s current leader is an ally to the West and to key Sunni majority nations.A government source said: “They know that if they bring about the downfall of the president,they won’t be able to rule the country, because Western and neighbouring countries will gangon up on them, as well as other provinces that are not under their control.”20 January After days of fighting in Yemen, the government and Houthi rebels reached a tentative deal onWednesday, ending a standoff that caused Aden air and sea ports to close, and oil production tohalt. As of Thursday morning, all ports have reopened. Oil production will likely start after thereturn of the president’s abducted Chief of Staff, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak. During the clashesthat followed Mubarak’s abduction, the Houthis also took control of Yemen’s state news and TVagencies. In a televised address, Abdul Malik al-Houthi said that Hadi and those around himfailed to implement political deals that could usher in a new era in Yemen. The Houthi leadersaid, "We ... will not hesitate to impose any necessary measures to implement the peace andpartnership agreement." He added, "All the options are open and without exception and theceiling is very, very high. And this is why, I here advise the president ... Implement this deal. It isfor your benefit and for the benefit of your people." The rebels also seized control of a militaryaviation college, and massive weapons depot belonging to the government brigade that providespresidential personal security. The depot contains 280 T-80 Russian-made tanks and otherheavy artillery. Most of the security forces reportedly fled after a light clash with fighters. Underthe terms of the agreement, the government will accept changes in the draft of the newconstitution. Several of the constitutional changes sought by the Houthis would emphasize thecharacteristics of Yemen as a federal state and push for more inclusion of diverse groups. TheHouthis have called for marginalized political groups to have the right to fair representation andpartnerships in state institutions. If agreed, the rebels will withdraw their fighters from thecapital, where they have held control of the city since September, and would cooperate with thegovernment so that the President and state institutions can return to their duties. A Houthiofficial said the rebels will abide by the deal if the President follows a timeline specified in thenegotiations.17 January Houthi rebels have abducted the president’s Chief of Staff, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak as he wasenroute to present a draft of the nation’s new constitution. The Houthis had vocally argued thatthe commission drafting the constitution must ensure greater representation for marginalisedgroups in Yemen, particularly the Houthis. They said they had become aware of "irregularities"in both the text and how the government was planning to make it law. The new constitution209

Global Security Reportcould divide Yemen into a six-region federation. The Houthis oppose such a move and supportthe country becoming two federal regions. Upon Mubarak’s abduction, leaders from SouthernYemen gave the Houthis 24 hours to release Mubarak, threatening to cut off oil supplies. Whenthey refused, oil production in Shabwa, Yemen’s most strategic oil province and home toMubarak, was halted as a form of protest against the Houthis. Shabwa’s governor, Ahmed AliBahaj, ordered all oil companies in the province to halt production before sunset, stopping threeoil fields which produce about 50,000 barrels per day. The governor also ordered the closure ofall government institutions in the province. In solidarity, Hadramout Tribal Federation sent amemo to the local oil production companies to stop operating in line with the escalating eventsin the country. Crude production from Yemen's Masila oilfields in Hadramout province has alsostopped. Yemen's only gas terminal at Balhaf in Shabwa in the Gulf of Aden also haltedoperations after foreign experts were evacuated from the liquefied natural gas export facilitylate on Sunday. Total is the biggest investor in Yemen's gas export industry through its 40%shareholding in Yemen LNG, where its partners are US-based Hunt Oil on 17%, state-run YemenGas Co on 17% and Korea Gas Corp (Kogas) on 6%. Citing security concerns, the local securitycommittee of the city of Aden ordered the airport, sea port and all land crossings closed. TheHouthis agreed to release Mubarak and withdraw their militias from key governmentinstitutions if officials agree to a re-write part of the country's constitution.14 January A top leader of Yemen's al-Qaeda branch has claimed responsibility for last week's attack onParis satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo when two masked gunmen killed 12 people, includingmuch of the weekly's editorial staff, and two police officers. Nasr al-Ansi, a top commander ofal-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP as the branch is known, appeared in an 11-minutevideo posted online on Wednesday, saying that the massacre at Charlie Hebdo was in"vengeance for the prophet". Ansi said that France belongs to the "party of Satan" and warnedof more "tragedies and terror". He said that Yemen's al-Qaeda branch "chose the target, laid outthe plan and financed the operation". The paper had published cartoons of the ProphetMuhammad, which is considered an insult to Islam. "We, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,claim responsibility for this operation as vengeance for the messenger of Allah," Ansi said in thevideo entitled "A message regarding the blessed battle of Paris. The leadership of [AQAP] wasthe party that chose the target and plotted and financed the plan... It was following orders byour general chief Ayman al-Zawahiri," Ansi said, "The heroes were chosen and they answeredthe call." Speaking over footage of the attack that killed 12 people, Ansi said: "Today, themujahedeen avenge their revered prophet, and send the clearest message to everyone whowould dare to attack Islamic sanctities." Ansi referenced a warning by the late chief of al-Qaeda,Osama bin Laden, who was killed by US commandos in May 2011. "If the freedom of your speechis not restrained, then you should accept the freedom of our actions," he said. On Saturday,another senior AQAP member Harith al-Nadhari also claimed responsibility for the attack in anaudio recording, saying the shooting was an operation to teach the French the limits of freedomof expression. Charlie Hebdo had angered Muslims in the past by printing cartoons lampooningMuhammad and Islam.11 January Both brothers who carried out the attack against satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo travelled toYemen via Oman in 2011 and had weapons training in the deserts of Marib, where al Qaeda hasa presence, two senior Yemeni sources said on Sunday. This is the first confirmation by Yemeniofficials that both Cherif and Said Kouachi, who carried out one of the bloodiest Islamist attackson the West in years, had visited Yemen where al Qaeda's deadliest franchise, AQAP, is based.U.S., European and Yemeni sources had previously confirmed a visit by Said Kouachi. The Parisattack puts a fresh spotlight on the AQAP branch which has recently focused on fighting enemiesat home such as government forces and Shi'ite rebels but still aims to carry out attacks abroad.A concerted government campaign last year and repeated U.S. drone strikes on AQAP figureshad also created a belief that it lacked the capability to launch any major attacks abroad. AlQaeda-linked militants have managed however, to target Westerners, including a Frenchman,in Yemen in the past year. "These two brothers arrived in Oman on July 25, 2011, and from Omanthey were smuggled into Yemen where they stayed for two weeks," said a senior Yemenisecurity official who declined to be named. "They met (al Qaeda preacher) Anwar al-Awlaki andthen they were trained for three days in the deserts of Marib on how to fire a gun. They returned210

Global Security Reportto Oman and they left Oman on Aug. 15, 2011 to go back to France." A senior Yemeni intelligencesource confirmed the brothers had entered Yemen via Oman in 2011, citing the ease with whichthey entered while the security forces were focused on the Arab Spring protests that wereconvulsing the country at the time. The source also confirmed the brothers had met Awlaki "andtrained in Wadi Abida" – which is between Marib and Shabwa provinces where Awlaki wasknown to move freely. The Kouachi brothers were shot dead by French security forces after theytook refuge in a print works outside Paris. Awlaki, an influential militant recruiter, was killed bya suspected U.S. drone strike in Sept. 2011. Cherif Kouachi told a television station he hadreceived financing from Awlaki and that he had been "sent" by al Qaeda in Yemen. The securityofficial said there had been no known communication between the brothers and AQAP sincethey left Yemen. Tribal leader Hamad Waheet denied that Marib was a stronghold for al Qaeda,or that the brothers trained there in 2011. He also denied that Awlaki used to be present in theprovince.10 January Thousands of people have demonstrated in Yemen’s capital to demand both the ouster of ShiiteHouthi rebels who control the city as well as the country’s beleaguered president. Thedemonstrations were the first of their kind demanding President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadistep down since he took over the presidency after a popular revolt toppled his predecessor, AliAbdullah Saleh, in 2011. Many in the streets chanted slogans accusing Hadi of mismanaging thecountry to the point where state institutions collapsed and militants could take over. They havenamed their protest the “rejection” movement. The demonstrators, from a variety of politicalgroups, also denounced last week’s attack on a police academy in Sanaa that killed 37 people,calling for a swift investigation and trial of the culprits.7 January A suicide bomber driving a minibus full of explosives killed at least 37 people Wednesdaymorning as cadets gathered to enrol at a police academy in Sanaa, security officials andwitnesses said. At the scene of the blast, the dead and wounded lay on a sidewalk against a wall.A charred taxi cab smoked near what remained of the minibus, meters (yards) from a gate forthe police academy. Eyewitness Jamil al-Khaleedi said, "What happened is we were all gatheringand … (the bomber) exploded right next to all of the police college classmates. It went off amongall of them, and they flew through the air." No one immediately claimed responsibility for theattack. Yemen's local al-Qaeda branch, targeted in frequent U.S. drone strikes in the country, hascarried out similar attacks in the past. Washington considers al-Qaeda in Yemen to be theworld's most dangerous branch of the terror network as it has been linked to several failedattacks on the U.S. homeland. The blast comes as Shiite rebels known as Houthis seized largeareas of Yemen, including Sanaa, earlier this year as part of a protracted power struggle withPresident Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Their critics view them as a proxy for Shiite Iran, chargesthe rebels deny. Al-Qaeda militants have targeted the rebels in bombings in the past.5 January More than 7,700 people were killed in Yemen in 2014 due to armed clashes in the country, astudy conducted by a Yemeni NGO shows. The figure indicates a threefold rise from the deathtoll in 2011, when a popular uprising began that would oust the country's long-time dictator, AliAbdullah Saleh. The study was carried out by Abaad Studies and Research Center. The researchnoted that about 5,000 Ansarullah revolutionaries (Houthis) were killed in 2014 while morethan 1,200 Yemeni civilians and 1,000 military forces died. It also put the number of al-Qaedaaffiliatedmilitants at about 500.4 January A senior army officer was shot dead in south-eastern Yemen and four fighters from a Houthi-ledmilitia that controls much of Yemen died in a bomb attack on a guesthouse south of the capitalSanaa on Sunday, state media reported. At least 25 others from the Popular Committees, a forcecomprising mainly Houthis tribesmen, were wounded in the explosion in the city of Dhamar,some 100km south of Sanaa. "Terrorist elements are likely to have planted the bomb at theentrance of the guesthouse," Saba agency said. The Yemeni defence ministry said on its websitethat the latest victim, Colonel Hamoud Hussein Al Dharhani, was shot dead on Sunday when heleft his house in the city of Ataq in the south-eastern Shabwa province. Yemeni authorities blameAl Qaeda for a campaign of targeted killings in which up to 350 senior army officers have diedin the past three years.211

Global Security Report3 January Yemeni police have arrested three foreigners in the capital Sanaa after one of them was foundto have al Qaeda material in his possession, the Interior Ministry said. The foreigners, aBulgarian, Belgian and Somali, were aged between 22 and 48, the ministry said on its website."The third person was found to have slogans for al Qaeda in his possession," the statement saidwithout identifying which of the three men it was referring to. Last year Yemeni security forceslaunched a campaign to drive out al Qaeda from their strongholds in the south. U.S. drone attackshave also targeted suspected al Qaeda members. Militants have still proved capable of launchingattacks in the volatile Western-allied country, which shares a long border Saudi Arabia, theworld's biggest oil exporter. Their most lethal attacks have recently been directed against theShi'ite Muslim Houthi movement that took over Sanaa in September.2 January Clashes between the Yemeni army and tribesmen in Marib province left seven dead and morethan 15 injured late on Thursday, tribal sources said. Tribesmen in the region intercepted abrigade from the army that was traveling from the southern province of Shabwa towards thecountry’s capital, Sanaa. The tribesmen believed the troops were being led by followers offormer president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who they believe supports the Shiite Houthis and plannedto arm the group in their region, tribal sources said. The violent clashes between the two sidesled to the death of five soldiers and two tribesmen and injured another 15 soldiers and tens oftribesmen. Westerns diplomats and Yemeni officials also say the Houthis are getting supportfrom Saleh, who came under U.N. Security Council sanctions last year for threatening Yemen’speace and stability, something he denies. The Marib tribesmen managed to seize the equipmentand weapons belonging to the troops. Tensions are easing now, the source said, after talksbetween the government and the tribesmen who agreed to hand over the weapons they hadseized to the ministry of defence. No one from the Yemeni government was immediatelyavailable to comment.Yemen has witnessed a considerable increase in the number of African migrants and asylumseekersarriving in 2014 despite growing insecurity in the country, UN officials have said. In2014, over 82,000 people reached Yemen's shores from the Horn of Africa. In 2013, the numberof migrants was 65,000. The drowning of 24 Ethiopian migrants off Yemen's western coast onMonday highlighted the plight African migrants are facing in Yemen. In a similar incident onemonth ago, a boat loaded with migrants shipwrecked off the same area, the country's coastguardsaid. In a statement posted to the Interior Ministry's official website, the coastguard said seaguards found the bodies of the migrants strewn across the shore of the Souida region, in theMakha district of Taiz province, and began seeking their identities. Earlier this month, theministry said 70 African nationals died off the same coast when their boat collapsed due tostrong wind and tidal waves. The number of Africans who perished off Yemen's coast this yearis bigger than the last three years combined, the UN said. In October, 64 migrants and three crewmembers died when their vessel, sailing from Somalia, sank in the Gulf of Aden. The yearly tallyfor 2014 reached 223, exceeding the combined total for the previous three years of 179,according to UN figures.1 January The death toll from a suicide bomb attack on Yemeni civilians commemorating the ProphetMuhammad’s birthday in central Yemen has risen to 49, hospital sources said on Thursday.Medics said 49 people were killed and 70 wounded in Wednesday's attack by a bomber dressedas a woman in Ibb, a city held by Houthis. An initial toll gave at least 33 dead and dozenswounded. Among those wounded on Wednesday was Ibb Governor Yahya al-Aryani, who wasattending the religious ceremony, a medic said. The bomber had been wearing a woman's blackabaya and veil when he detonated his suicide belt. The northern-based Houthis establishedthemselves as power brokers in Yemen last month by capturing Sanaa against scant resistancefrom the administration of President Abed-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi, who appears not to have afull grip on the country's fractious military. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), reactingto the loss of its strongholds to Houthi fighters, has accused its opponents of acting as a proxyfor both the United States and Iran threatened renewed violence against them. AQAP was bornout of a 2009 merger of its franchises in al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden's native SaudiArabia and his ancestral homeland in Yemen.212

Global Security ReportNorth AmericaCanada30 January Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, has announced today that Canada will introduce newanti-terror laws in response to last year’s terror attacks on Canadian soil. The laws will make ita crime to promote terrorism against Canadians, online, or elsewhere. The laws will also enableCanadian authorities to detain individuals who are suspected of involvement in a terror plot forup to seven days without charge. Furthermore, Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS),will have greater power in order to directly thwart attacks.26 January A Canadian national has tested positive for the H7N9 Avian flu virus. The Vancouver arearesident’s positive test for the virus is the first case of the infection in a human in North America.The woman, who is in her 50s, had recently returned from China. She is now recovering fromthe flu virus in isolation, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada. Her close contactshave been identified and are being monitored by provincial public health authorities. Canada’sChief Public Health Officer has stated that the risk to Canadians is very low, as there is currentlyno evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission of the H7N9 Avian flu virus. The H7N9virus is transmitted between birds. Most cases of the virus are transmitted following contactwith live poultry.25 January Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, has stated that following the terrorist attacks inCanada last year, by two Canadian-Muslim converts, Canada will introduce new legislationaimed at giving more powers to its police and security agencies. The improved securitymeasures are designed to criminalize the promotion of terrorism, prevent terrorists fromrecruiting others and traveling to fight. Moreover, the new legislation will help securityauthorities prevent terrorist attacks.19 January The first ground battle between Western troops and Islamic State has been reported, asCanadian Special Forces exchanged gunfire with ISIS fighters in Iraq in recent days. TheCanadian forces were training Iraqi troops near front lines when they came under mortar andmachine gun fire, where they were forced to return fire in self-defense in the area in whichextremists have overrun large parts.1 January The first day of the New Year has seen Canada continue its efforts to fight Islamic State as itdrops bombs on ISIS targets in Iraq. Canadian Jets flew four attack missions against militanttargets in Iraq, hitting fighting positions and storage facilities.United States of America26 January An investigation into security in the White House has been launched after a flying devicetriggered a security alert when it landed in the ground of the White House. President Obamaand the First Lady were on a state visit to India at the time. However, the U.S. Secret Service,which is charged with the President’s security, has been criticized for this security lapse.According to the U.S. Secret Service, the flying device was a two-foot wide quad copter, whichflew into the White House grounds and crashed on the eastern side of the complex. Agovernment worker at the White House is believed to be behind the copter incident. What ismore, it is reported by officials that whilst it represents a lapse in security, it does not pose athreat.213

Global Security Report25 January The United States and India have announced a breakthrough alliance between the two countriesthat will enable American companies to supply India with civilian nuclear technology. Thenuclear deal between the two countries has been agreed in 2008, but had previously been heldup for six years amid U.S. fears over Indian laws on the liability over a nuclear accident.Furthermore, the renewed framework will support a stronger military-to-military engagement,as well as deeper maritime cooperation and increased opportunities in technology and trade. Inso far as to say, the agreement has lead to a new chapter in U.S.-India strategic relationsfollowing meetings between U.S. President Obama and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.The new relationship marks an important milestone, which will enhance defense cooperationbetween the U.S. and India.22 January After last month’s announcement of a normalization of relations between the U.S. and Cuba afterover a decade of friction and restrictions on both sides. The U.S. and Cuba are now in talksconcerning deportations and diplomats. Furthermore, the U.S. is calling for Cubans to haveaccess to future embassy in Havana, whilst Cuba is requesting its removal from the stateterrorism list, among other requests. Talks are expected to carry on as negotiations over thenormalization process continue.14 January The U.S. Department of Defense has announced that last month’s detainee transfers fromGuantanamo Bay prison will continue. Today the U.S. coordinated with the government of Omanto transfer four prisoners, Al Khadr Abdallah Muhammad Al Yafi, Fadel Hussein Saleh Hentif,Abd Al-Rahman Abdullah Au Shabati, and Mohammed Ahmed Salam from the detention facilityat Guantanamo Bay to Oman. Later on in the day, the Department of Defense also announced thetransfer of Akhmed Abdul Qadir from the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay to Estonia, ascoordinated with the government of Estonia.2 January In the wake of last month’s cyber hack on Sony Picture Entertainment, President Obama hasauthorized further sanctions against North Korea. The sanctions named three entities as well as10 North Korean government officials, which includes individuals working in Iran, Syria, China,Russia, and Namibia.214

Global Security ReportAbout OBSThe Organization for Better Security (OBS) as an association registered and domiciled inMalta. OBS provides an online membership platform for individuals visiting or workinginternationally. OBS combines Social Networking, Travel Alerts, Conflict Zone In-depthCountry Reports and Videos to share news and advice about international living andworking conditions. OBS provides up-to-date intelligence of potential threats, changes insecurity levels and advice on accessing medical services. OBS broadcasts real time, frontline intelligence through Tangiers’ extensive network of service providers such as MS Riskand on the ground local experts. For more information, please visit: www.obs.com.mt215