REMSAD & CMAQ Performance Evaluation and ... - MARAMA

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REMSAD & CMAQ Performance Evaluation and ... - MARAMA

REMSAD & CMAQ PerformanceEvaluation and TechniquesModeling TeamShan He, John Graham, Emily Savelli, Jung-Hun Woo,and Gary KleimanNESCAUM


Outline• REMSAD - structure, configuration,PM2.5 performance, and taggingfeature• CMAQ - background, configuration,ozone and PM2.5 modeling evaluation,and sensitivity analysis tool• Summary on performance of CMAQand REMSAD, and related issues


REMSAD - Regional Modeling System for Aerosols and Deposition• REMSAD was originally developed as a screening tool for quickannual modeling run on continental U.S. domain to provide PMdistribution and composition, and impact on air quality by emissions.It has evolved into a complex modeling system representingchemistry, transport, and deposition of airborne pollutants (PM,ozone, and toxics (e.g., mercury and dioxin)) with unique algorithms.• Its gas phase chemistry uses micro-CB-IV mechanism. PM speciesare formed through parameterized aerosol chemistry and dynamics.SOA yield are calculated from anthropogenic and biogenichydrocarbons. Tagging scheme for sulfur, nitrogen, mercury, andcadmium.• REMSAD was used by USEPA for simulating base year and futuretrends of PM2.5 in support of CSA, and Transport Rule air qualityassessments.


REMSAD Configuration in NESCAUM ApplicationNESCAUM annual run used CSA base year 1996 meteorology, and CSA2001”Proxy” emissions.CSA 2001 “PROXY” EMISSIONS- 1996 Nonroad Rule Emissions: 1996 inventory for all area, nonroad, mobile and pointsources, for Canadian, Offshore and US, for criteria pollutants and mercury- Multiplicative factors applied to 1996 Nonroad Rule US EGU, nonroad and mobilesources to create 2001 emissions- Linear interpolation between 1996 Nonroad Rule and 2010 Transport Rule US non-EGU and area sources to create 2001 emissions- 1996 Nonroad Rule Canadian, Mexican, Offshore and biogenics emissions- 120 (E-W) X 84 (N-S) grid cellsMODELING DOMAIN- Cell size (36km X 36km, 0.5 o X 0.3333 o )- E-W range: 66 degrees W - 126 degrees WN-S range: 24 degrees N - 52 degrees N- Vertical extent: Ground to 16,200 meters (100mb) with 12 layers


REMSAD Base Year EvaluationREMSAD vs. IMPROVE1996 NEI & 1996 meteorologyAnnual Mean Predicted / Annual Mean ObservedIMPROVE PM Species National East WestPM2.5 -32% -15% -49%Sulfate -19% -10% -39%Nitrate 5% 82% -55%Elemental Carbon 1% 23% -20%Organic Aerosols -45% -42% -47%Soil/Other 38% 225% -18%(Timin, B., et al. 2002)


REMSAD NESCAUM Tagging Map


REMSAD Modeling Consistency (I)EPA REMSAD V7.06 vs. NESCAUM V7.10 TaggingAnnual Average PM2.5EPA REMSAD V7.06NESCAUM REMSAD V7.10 Tagging


REMSAD Modeling Consistency (II)EPA REMSAD V7.06 vs. NESCAUM V7.10 TaggingAnnual Average PM SulfateEPA REMSAD V7.06NESCAUM REMSAD V7.10 Tagging


REMSAD PM2.5 Performance (I)REMSAD vs. IMPROVEAnnual Average PM2.5 Speciation in 3 Class I Area SitesConcentration (ug/m36.05.04.03.02.01.0PM2.5 Speciation in Acadia, MESoilECOCNH4NitrateSulfate0.019961997199819992000Annual Average20012002NESCAUMPM2.5 Speciation in Brigantine, NJPM2.5 Speciation in Lye Brook, VTConcentration (ug/m312.010.08.06.04.02.00.019961997199819992000Annual Average20012002NESCAUMSoilECOCNH4NitrateSulfateConcentration (ug/m310.09.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.019961997199819992000Annual Average20012002NESCAUMSoilECOCNH4NitrateSulfate


REMSAD PM2.5 Performance (II)REMSAD vs. IMPROVEMean Annual Average (1996~2002) in 3 Class I Area Sites5.0NESCAUM REMSAD vs. IMPROVE MeanNESCAU4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.00.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0IMPROVESulfateNitrateNH4OCECSoil1:1SulfateNH4ECNitrateOCSoilr 20.9360.7680.7320.6460.5430.475


REMSAD Modeling AnalysisTagging Scheme on Sulfur SpeciesContribution to PM Sulfate in Brigantine, NJAnnual Average PM2.5 (11.84ug/m3)Composition in Brigantine, NJPEC0.59 ug/m35.0%POA0.88 ug/m37.4%NH41.57 ug/m313.3%Sulfate3.92 ug/m333.1%Other US statesElevated Emission1.9%RI0.0% DC0.0%ARNH0.2%0.3%LA0.3%ME0.1%MN0.5%VT0.0%MS0.3%CT0.5%IA0.6%Surface Emission+ All Canada &Mexico Emission30%SCTX AL0.9%0.7% 1.2%MAMO1.0%0.9%GA1.6%WI1.3%DE2.0%TN1.6%KY2.2%IL2.2%PA11.2%MI2.9%NC2.9%OH9.2%NY4.3%WV4.1%MD4.0%VAIN 4.0%3.9%NJ3.5%SOA1.34 ug/m311.3%Nitrate1.62 ug/m313.7%PMfine1.92 ug/m316.2%


REMSAD Tagging AnalysisPM Sulfate Contribution RankingDEMODE20ALSCCT19GAMAGA18CTALTN17NHWIWI16TNGANJ15NCTNIL14NJDEKY13KYILME12VAKYNH11WINCNC10MAMIVA9ILNJMD8MDININ7WVVAWV6INMDMI5MIWVMA4OHNYNY3NYOHOH2PAPAPA1Lye BrookBrigantineAcadiaRANK


Models-3/CMAQ - Community Multiscale Air Quality Model• Models-3/CMAQ system is an advanced air quality modeling systemaddressing air quality from “one atmosphere” multi-pollutant perspective inmultiscale. It was developed by USEPA to be state-of-science model toprovide comprehensive and flexible modeling tool for states and othergovernment agencies, as well as for scientific studies.ICONBCONJPROCLUPROCMCIPMeteorology Modeling SystemMM5Models-3/CMAQCCTMCMAQ Chemical Transport ModelEmission Modeling SystemSMOKEGas Phase Chemistry:CB-IV, RADM,SAPRC99Aerosol Mechanism:AE3 includingISORROPIA nitratepartitioning & SOAgas/particle partioning


CMAQ Modeling DomainEpisode period:Jul. 2001 & Jan. 2002Grid: 36kmX36kmLayers: 9 (15km)Episode period:Aug. 6~16, 2002Grid: 12kmX12kmLayers: 16 (18km)


CMAQ Ozone Performance (I)CMAQ vs. AIRSHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in NYHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in VTHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in NHHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in ME200200200200180180180180160160160160140140140140CMAQ12010080CMAQ12010080CMAQ12010080CMAQ1201008060606060404040402020202000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 20000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200AIRSAIRSAIRSAIRSHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in NJHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in CTHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in RIHourly Surface Ozone (ppb) in MA200200200200180180180180CMAQ1601401201008060402000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200AIRSCMAQ1601401201008060402000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200AIRSCMAQ1601401201008060402000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200AIRSCMAQ1601401201008060402000 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200AIRSAIRS vs. CMAQCTMAMENHNJNYRIVTCorrelationCoefficient0.7980.7340.7310.7060.8270.7420.6840.676


CMAQ Ozone Performance (II)Diurnal VariationWestport (rural), CTKennebunkport (suburban), MEOzone (ppb)200180160140120100806040200AIRSCMAQ9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Ozone (ppb)200180160140120100806040200AIRSCMAQ9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Day in Aug. 2002 (GMT hour)Day in Aug. 2002 (GMT hour)Boston (rural), MABar Harbor (rural), MEOzone (ppb)200180160140120100806040200AIRSCMAQ9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Ozone (ppb)200180160140120100806040200AIRSCMAQ9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Day in Aug. 2002 (GMT hour)Day in Aug. 2002 (GMT hour)Boston (urban and central city), MABaltimore (urban and center city), MDOzone (ppb)200180160140120100806040200AIRSCMAQ9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Oozne (ppb)200180160140120100806040200AIRSCMAQ9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Day in Aug. 2002 (GMT hour)Day in Aug. 2002 (GMT hour)


CMAQ Ozone Performance (III)Statistical MeasureO3 : MANE-VU AIRS vs. CMAQ 200208100O3 hourlyFractional Error (%)755025O3 daytime hourlyO3 diurnal maxO3 daily mean15%/35%30%/50%0-75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75Fractional Bias (%)60%/75%


CMAQ Ozone SimulationOzone during Aug. 13, 2002Daily maximum ozone map from EPACMAQ OzoneOzone difference by reducing 98% NOx emission


CMAQ PM2.5 PerformancePM2.5 (ug/m3)PM2.5 hourly (ug/m3)1001209080100CMAQ .706050403020100IMPROVESTN1:10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100CMAQ .8060402000 20 40 60 80 100 120ObservationSTN


CMAQ PM2.5 Simulation


PM Performance Goals and Criteria(proposed by James Boylan, VISTAS)MFE Goals and CriteriaMFB Goals and CriteriaMean Fractional Error200150100Zone 350Zone 2Zone 100.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0GoalCriteriaMean Fractional Bias200150100500-50-100-150-200Zone 3Zone 2Zone 1Zone 2Zone 30.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0(+) Goal(-) Goal(+) Criteria(-) CriteriaAverage Concentration (µg/m 3 )Average Concentration (µg/m 3 )1MFE =NN∑i=1CDefinitionm⎛ Co+⎜⎝ 2− CCom⎞⎟⎠1MFB =NN( Cm− Co)∑i=1⎛ Co+⎜⎝ 2Cm⎞⎟⎠MFE ≤150eMFB ≤ ± 170eGoals−0.5(C + Co0.75µg / mm3−0.5(C + Co0.5µg / m)m3)+ 50+ 30MFE ≤125eMFB ≤ ± 140eCriteria−0.5(C + Co0.75µg / m0.5µg / mm3−0.5(C + Co)m3)+ 75+ 60


Model Performance Zones(proposed by James Boylan, VISTAS)• Zone I– Good Model Performance– Level I Diagnostic Evaluation (Minimal)• Zone II– Average Model Performance– Level II Diagnostic Evaluation (Standard)• Zone III– Poor Model Performance– Level III Diagnostic Evaluation (Extended) andSensitivity Testing


MANE-VU Mean Fractional Error(from James Boylan, VISTAS based on NESCAUM&GIT CMAQ results)Mean Fractional ErrorMANE-VU: 2 Episodes (IMPROVE + SEARCH)200.00150.00100.0050.000.000.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0Average Concentration (µg/m 3 )SulfateNitrateAmmoniumOrganicsECPM2.5GoalCriteria


MANE-VU Mean Fractional Bias(from James Boylan, VISTAS based on NESCAUM&GIT CMAQ results)Mean Fractional BiasMANE-VU: 2 Episodes (IMPROVE + SEARCH)200.00150.00100.0050.000.00-50.00-100.00-150.00-200.000.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0Average Concentration (µg/m 3 )SulfateNitrateAmmoniumOrganicsECPM2.5(+) Bias Goal(-) Bias Goal(+) Criteria(-) Criteria


InterRPO Comparison(from James Boylan, VISTAS)Sulfate ComparisonNitrate ComparisonEC ComparisonMRPO VISTAS MANE-VUMRPO VISTAS MANE-VUMRPO VISTAS MANE-VU35151Model Conc. (µg/m 3 )30252015105Model Conc. (µg/m 3 )12963Model Conc. (µg/m 3 )0.80.60.40.200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35IMPROVE Concentration (µ g/m 3 )00 3 6 9 12 15IMPROVE Concentration (µ g/m 3 )00 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1IMPROVE Concentration (µ g/m 3 )Ammonium ComparisonOrganics ComparisonSoils ComparisonMRPO VISTAS MANE-VUMRPO VISTAS MANE-VUMRPO VISTAS MANE-VU885Model Conc. (µg/m 3 )642Model Conc. (µg/m 3 )642Model Conc. (µg/m 3 )43210000 2 4 6 8IMPROVE Concentration (µ g/m 3 )0 2 4 6 8IMPROVE Concentration (µ g/m 3 )0 1 2 3 4 5IMPROVE Concentration (µ g/m 3 )


CMAQ-DDM Modeling Analysis(from GIT & NESCAUM Climate Change Project)DDM –Decoupled Direct Methoduses direct derivatives ofGoverning equationsSurface Ozone concentrationTime: UTC hour 20(1pm EST)July 4∂[ O3 ]∂(NO x )Emission∂[ O3 ]∂(VOC)Emission


SummaryIMPROVE & CMAQ

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