Annual Report 2004

Annual Report 2004

Bjerknes Centrefor Climate Research

Research activitiesRapid Climate Changes: causal connectionsAtlantic Ocean CirculationSeasonal to Multi-decadal VariabilityHolocene Climate Variability and ForcingClimate Predictability and Future Climate ChangeMarine Climate Processes and FeedbacksHigh-latitude Exchange ProcessesResearch forumsModel systems and model infrastructureOcean/atmosphere observations and observation systemsPalaeoclimateLeader (deputy leader)T. Dokken (K. Nisancioglu)H. Drange (H.F. Kleiven)T. Furevik (I. Kindem)A. Nesje (O. H. Otterå)A. Sorteberg (S. Sundby)T. Eldevik (P. Haugan)N.-G. Kvamstø (F. Flatøy)C. Heinze (A. Olsen)Co-leadersMats Bentsen, NERSCPaul Budgell, IMRHenrik Søiland, IMRRichard Bellerby, BCCRUlysses Ninnemann, UoBØyvind Lie, BCCRThe BCCR approachThe approach of the BCCR is to combinecutting-edge research with top-level educationand outreach activities.The BCCR will:■■■Facilitate top research in key areas inorder to establish the BCCR among theleading international climate researchcentresBecome a visible contributor to nationaland international research programs andassessments, such as the World ClimateResearch Programme (WRCP), theInternational Geosphere-BiosphereProgramme (IGBP) and the Inter–governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Become the primary national centre ofcompetence on climate change for education,policy makers, the media and thegeneral public.AssessmentThe BCCR is subject to annual critical assessmentsof its scientific advancement and thetimely fulfilment of its objectives by theScientific Advisory Board, an external panel ofacknowledged climate scientists. The key evaluatingcriteria are:■■■■■High quality papers in peer-review, leadinginternational journals addressing theobjectives of the research ActivitiesMulti-authorship across disciplinaryboundaries within the BCCRMemberships in scientific steeringcommittees of national and internationalprograms and activitiesMedia exposure and public outreachInteraction with stakeholders (governmentalbodies, decision and policy makers,enterprises, NGOs, etc.)Gender issuesDuring 2004, several female PhD studentsdefended their doctoral dissertation, and startedat postdoc positions at BCCR. This hasincreased the fraction of female postdocs from29% in 2003 to 43%. The current developmentfits the BCCR´s promotion and incentive plansto increase the number of female scientists atthe leader and senior levels.4 Annual Report 2004

Summary of accomplishmentsDuring its second year as CoE, theBCCR implemented the research strategydeveloped in 2003 and resulted in anew organisational structure to accommodatethe new functional groups.REGARDING NEW RESEARCH, BCCRparticipated in a number of applications duringthe 2nd call of EU´s 6 Framework Programmethat culminated in 4 successful applicationswith BCCR involvement: the IntegratedProjects CARBOOCEAN and ENSEM-BLES, the Network of Excellence EURO-CEANS, and the STREP project DYNA-MITE. Of these, CARBOOCEAN andDYNAMITE are co-ordinated by Bjerknesscientists Prof. Christoph Heinze and Prof.Helge Drange, respectively.BCCR´s international engagement during2004 included participation in IPCC preparatorymeetings for the upcoming 4thAssessment Report and contribution to theArctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)report, officially launched during a conferencein Reykjavik in November. In addition, BCCRscientists authored a number of review articlesin prestigious journals such as in Science´s"Perspectives" and Nature´s "News & Views".The article of Prof. O.M. Johannessen and coworkerswas promoted in Science Editor´sChoice while Quaternary Science Reviewsclaimed the articles of Prof. John Inge Svendsenand co-workers and Richard Telford and coworkersto be among the 5 most requested articlesduring 2004.BCCR successfully organised an internationalopen science conference in Bergen to commemoratethe centenary of Vilhem Bjerknespivotal paper of 1904. The conference gatheredmany of the world´s premier climate scientistsand a total of 281 delegates from around theworld to discuss aspects of modern climateresearch in a truly interdisciplinary effort.BCCR also co-organised an international seminar,in honour of retiring Prof. Jan Mangerud,which brought a number of worldclass palaeoclimatologists to Bergen. The CoE´s scientificproduction included 72 research articles in theinternational peer review literature (includingone paper in Nature and one in Science), 2books and 2 chapters in books and 192 presentations(oral and poster) at national and internationalscience meetings. Outreach activitiesincluded popular articles, invited lectures, andmedia coverage.Key contributions BCCR scientists are indicated in boldScientific papers■■Krinner, G., J. Mangerud,M.Jakobsson,M. Crucifix, C. Ritz and J. I. Svendsen(2004),"Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasiaowing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes."Nature 427: 429 - 432Lamy, F., J. Kaiser, U. Ninnemann,D.Hebbeln, H.W. Arz and J. Stoner (2004)"Antarctic timing of surface water changesoff Chile and Patagonian ice sheet response"Science 304, 1959-1962.Bentsen, M., H. Drange,T.Furevikand T. Zhou (2004)."Simulated variability of the Atlanticthermohaline meridional circulation."Climate Dynamics 22(6-7): 701-720.■Otterå,O.H.,H.Drange,M.Bentsen,and N. G. Kvamstø and D. Jiang (2004)."Transient response of the Atlantic Meri–dional Overturning Circulation to enhancedfreshwater input to the Nordic Seas-ArcticOcean in the Bergen Climate Model."TELLUS Series A 56(A): 342-361.Scientific Reviews■■Birks, H.J.C and H. Birks."The rise and fall of forests". Perspectives.Science 305, 484-485, 23 July 2004Hansen, B., S. Østerhus,D.Quadfaseland W. Turrell."Already the day after tomorrow?"Perspectives.Science 305,953-954, 13 August 2004■■Dokken,T.and K. H. Nisancioglu."Fresh angle on the polar seesaw".News & Views,Nature 430, 19 aug. 2004Science Editors´ choice on Climate Science:"An ice-free Arctic?"Promotion of the article of Johannessen,O. M., L. Bengtsson, M. W. Miles,S.I.Kuzmina, V. A. Semenov, G. V. Alekseev,A. P. Nagurny, V. F. Zakharov, L. P.Bobylev, L. H. Petterson, H. K. and H. P.Cattle (2004)"Arctic climate change: observed andmodeled temperature and sea-icevariability".Tellus A 56:328Annual Report 20045

Scientific highlightsNew evidence shows that thehemispheres responded asynchronouslyto rapid climate changes inthe past 80 000 years.THE CLIMATE OF much of the NorthernHemisphere underwent rapid and dramaticchanges during the cool periods of the past80,000 years and during the transition out ofthe last ice age. When Greenland warmed, thesurface waters of the North Atlantic warmed,the trade winds strengthened, changes in NorthPacific ventilation occurred, and the Asianmonsoon intensified. These changes are welldocumented by the numerous paleo-reconstructionsfrom across the whole of theNorthern Hemisphere.Conversely, the way the Southern Hemispherereacted to these climate changes in the North isstill a matter of debate because discrepancies inthe little bit of data that is available do notdepict a clear picture. While Antarctic ice coresindicate a warming in the SouthernHemisphere when the Northern Hemispherewas cooling (i.e. asynchronous behaviour), thetiming of glacial advance and changes in terrestrialvegetation in both South America andNew Zealand indicate that global climate variedsynchronously, i.e. the South cooled alongwith the Northern Hemisphere. Much of thecontroversy is very much due to the poor datacoverage in the Southern Hemisphere. Why isthis important? Because by establishing thespatial pattern of rapid climate changes one willcontribute to a better understanding of themechanisms driving them.In this regard, Bjerknes scientists together withcolleagues from Germany and the USA havemade an important contribution to theSouthern Hemisphere records, by analyzingmarine sediment cores off the coast of Chile inthe southeast Pacific (Figure 1). They producedan exceptionally high-resolution history of seasurface temperatures during the past 50 000years which supports the model of asynchronoustemperature changes between bothHemispheres.The asynchronous model implies that rapid climatechanges represent changes in the way theocean currents transport heat around the globe.Because the ocean currents that bring heat toone area must take it away from another, thismodel predicts that Northern Hemispherewarming should be accompanied by a coolingof the Southern Hemisphere. Surface watersbecome dense and sink in the North Atlantic.As these deep waters flow south, warm surfacewaters travel northward to replace them, bringingwarmth to the North Atlantic. When deepwaterproduction slackens, the North Atlanticcools.The discrepancy with the land-based datacan be due to the slow response of glaciers, inthat glacial maxima do not necessarily correspondto the coolest conditions in the atmosphere,while vegetation will be influenced notonly by the regional climate changes, but also bythe presence of large ice-sheets nearby.■ Scientist involved:Ulysses Ninnemann,Dept. of EarthSciences, UoB and BCCR■ Research project: Ocean Drilling ProgramLeg 202, Site 1233 (NRC, NSF and JOI)■ Reference: Lamy et al. (2004), "Antarctictiming of surface water changes off Chileand Patagonian ice sheet response",Science 304, 1959-19626 Annual Report 2004

Climate change during the ice ages:Positive feedbackfrom eurasian glacial lakesProfs Jan Mangerud and John IngeSvendsen from the Department ofEarth Sciences at the University ofBergen and affiliated to the BCCR,have lead field studies in thePechora Basin, Russia over the lastdecade in order to reconstruct theglaciation history and the climatedevelopment through the last interglacial-glacialcycle in NorthernRussia.A RECENT STUDY paid particularl attentionto the impact of ice-dammed lakes on theclimate of the region. Several large ice-dammedlakes, with a combined area twice that of theCaspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasiaabout 90,000 years ago when an ice sheet centredover the Barents and Kara seas blocked thelarge northbound Russian rivers.The field data acquired by Mangerud andSvendsen were used to feed climate modelsdeveloped by French scientists in Grenoble andParis with the purpose of elucidating how theice-dammed lakes influenced the climate andthe ice sheet. The model indicates that glaciallakes impacted the Eurasian continent climateconsiderably by cooling the summers. Theidentified mechanism is that the lakes had verylow summer temperatures and they cooledeffectively the air-layer above them.Because of their large size and heat capacity,they decreased the summer temperaturesaround them as much as 8-100C. As a consequence,glaciers melted less during the summers.So, this became a positive feedback: assoon as the ice sheet was large enough to damlakes, the summers became cooler and ice sheetgrowth accelerated. It is assumed that the samemechanism also operated in North America assoon as the ice sheet blocked the Hudson Strait.The field data and reconstructions by Svendsen,Mangerud and co-workers have also greatlyimproved the reconstruction of the global LastGlacial Maximum (some 20, 000 years ago) icesheets, which is regularly used to test and validateclimate models.■ Scientists involvedJan Mangerud, John Inge Svendsen, Deptof Earth Science, UoB and BjerknesCentre for Climate Research■ Research projectsQUEEN (ESF), Pechora II (RCN)■ ReferenceKrinner et al. 2004,"Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasiaowing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes",Nature 427, 429-432,and Svendsen, J. I. et al. 2004,"Late Quaternary ice sheet history ofNorthern Eurasia".Quaternary Science Reviews 23, 1229-12718 Annual Report 2004

Effects of climate changes:Impact of overfishing and climatevariability on the Barents sea cod stockAtlantic Cod is one of the commerciallymost important fish species inthe North Atlantic and plays a centralrole in a number of ecosystems.Overfishing over prolonged periodshas resulted in dramatic declines inthe abundance of many stocks. TheArcto-Norwegian cod stock in theBarents Sea is today the largeststock of Atlantic Cod but the recruitmenthas varied extensively duringthe last 60 years.SCIENTISTS FROM THE Institute ofMarine Research affiliated with the BCCR tryto understand how fishing and climate variabilityimpact marine ecosystems throughout time.The stock of the Barents Sea cod has been subjectto a dual pressure during the last century:overexploitation by fishing and climate fluctuations.For instance, size-selective overfishinghas changed the age and size composition of thespawning stock dramatically since 1945: todayan average spawner is 3 years younger and 10cm shorter.Sea temperature was early recognized as animportant influence on fish recruitment. Innortherly regions early life stages (i.e. eggs, larvaeand juveniles) survive better in “warm” thanin cold years. It has recently been shown that thecorrelation between Barents Sea temperatureand cod recruitment has become increasinglystronger during the last decades (Figure 3). Whyis it so? It is hypothesised that as the cod stockin the Barents Sea changed its age and sizestructure (due to size-selective fishing), and itconcurrently developed a higher sensitivity toenvironmental fluctuations, in particular temperature.However, it should be noted that duringthe same period there have been significantchanges in the large-scale atmospheric circulationin the North Atlantic, changes that alsomay influence the correlation between regionalBarents Sea climate and cod recruitment.Continues on page 1180 o N78 o N76 o N74 o N72 o N70 o N68 o N66 o N64 o N62 o NATLANTIC OCEANSvalbardBARENTS SEAWintering grounds(4 year and older)Feeding grounds(4 year and older)Nursery grounds(1-3 years)Spawning groundsNorwegianAtlantic CurrentNorwegianCoastal Current10 o E 20 o E 30 o E 40 o E 50 o E 60 o EThe percentage ofspawning stockbiomass per agegroup in two timeintervals showsthat the averagecod spawnernowadays isyounger andsmaller comparedto an averagespawner 50 yearsThepositive correlationbetween the temperaturein the Barents Sea and codrecruitment has grownstronger during the lastdecadesMean features of the Barents Sea circulation andareas of distribution of the cod population.Annual Report 20049

New insight into the gulf stream systemThe Gulf Stream system, including the Norwegian Atlantic Current, can be described as the upper limb of the"Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation" (AMOC) cell. The AMOC transports large amounts of heat polewardfrom the Tropical Atlantic.The excess heat is gradually lost to the atmosphere thus contributing critically to the temperateclimate of Northern Europe. The northward warm flow in the surface “overturns” at high northern latitudesand returns south as a cold flow in the deep ocean.Nordic Seas to the exits can vary substantially.The pathways are decisive for the sourceand composition of the overflowing watermasses, and influence therefore the characteristicsof the AMOC. The Jan Mayen Current(JMC) plays a key role in this as it provides adirect pathway from the northern “overturning”parts of the Nordic Seas to theNorwegian Sea in south.In general the JMC is weak compared to theEast Greenland Current (EGC), and it is thedeeper part of the EGC that feeds the overflows.The waters that do not leave throughthe Denmark Strait continue southeast viathe Norwegian Sea to overflow at the Faroe-Shetland Channel. The setting is very differentin years of a persistent and positive NAOlikeatmospheric forcing like most of the1990s.In this case the JMC is well pronounced andthe prime source for the Faroe-ShetlandChannel overflow. The JMC may therefore“shortcut” a significant part of the Nordic Seas’overturning loop.THE NORDIC SEAS play a crucial role inthe AMOC since much of the actual overturningtakes place here. The inflowing warmNorwegian Atlantic Current is transformedfrom a warm surface current into a deep andcold outflow. This transformation has to takeplace at a rate that matches the overturning circulation.Otherwise, the properties of theAMOC will be perturbed and the associatedheat transport, and ultimately our climate, maychange dramatically. Bjerknes scientists studykey aspects of this system by a combination ofunique observational data sets and state-of-theartnumerical ocean models.The Greenland-Scotland Ridge separates theNorth Atlantic Ocean from the Nordic Seas.Cold water from the Nordic Seas overflows theridge through the Denmark Strait and in theFaroe-Shetland Channel, and descends into theabyss of the North Atlantic to become a dominantpart of the AMOC. The strength of theoverflows has been found to be relatively constant,but the deep water’s way through the■ Scientists involvedTor Eldevik, Anne-Britt Sandø(NERSC/BCCR), Tore Furevik(GFI/BCCR) and Fiammeta Straneo(Woods Hole OceanographicInstitution, USA)■ Research projectTRACTOR (EU), ProClim I and II(NRC), West Nordic Ocean Climate(Nordic Council of Ministers),NSF #0240378■ ReferenceEldevik et al. Pathways and export ofGreenland Sea Water, In: Climatevariability of the Nordic Seas(Drange, H., T. Dokken, T. Furevik, R.Gerdes and W. Berger, Eds.),AGU monograph (in press).10 Annual Report 2004

From page 9Unexploited fish stocks that have many old, larger spawners and awide age and size distribution are generally in better shape to producestrong class years and survive years of unfavourable naturalconditions. The tendency towards a spawning stock dominated byyounger, smaller fish and fewer year classes, as seen for Barents Seacod, is an unfavourable development for the reproductive capabilityof a stock.The current results indicate that the present Barents Sea cod stockhas difficulties in producing strong year classes even when theenvironmental conditions are favourable. As we face a centurywith high climate variability and frequency of extreme events concomitantwith overfishing practices (unless drastic policy changesoccur) the Barents Sea cod stock in particular and many of theworlds other fish stocks will be severely threatened.The case study presented here emphasises the importance of shiftingfrom a species-based fisheries to an ecosystem-based managementof the world fisheries in order to support sustainable development.■ Scientists involvedGeir Ottersen, Institute of Marine Research and BCCR■ Research projects"Variations in time and space of cod and other gadoids" andECOBE (RCN), within the framework of ICES andGLOBEC´s Cod and Climate Change Programme■ Reference"Changes in spawning stock structure strengthens the linkbetween climate and recruitment in a heavily fished codstock". Fisheries Oceanography (accepted)Annual Report 200411

The Bjerknes-Neill VOS pCO2 systemNoveltechnology:The assessment of theoceanic CO2 sourcesand sinks requires anaccurate quantificationof sea-air CO2 fluxesand their variability atall spatial and temporalscales. After 40 yearsof fieldwork by theinternational communityamassed about 1million measurementsof the partial pressureof carbon dioxide(pCO2).THIS DATA IS STILL inadequate to resolvethe variability of the fluxes from days to seasons.Mapping the diurnal to seasonal variationsof CO2 fluxes is decisive to assess errorsand uncertainties in existing pCO2 climatologiesas well as for a realistic parameterization ofCO2 fluxes in ocean carbon cycle models. Itbecame obvious that the acquisition of data atthe necessary temporal resolution required newinstrumentation capable of continuous measurementsof pCO2.In this regard, Bjerknes Centre engineers andscientists have developed and built a high-endstate-of-the-art autonomous underway pCO2instrumentation sytem, the Bjerknes-Neill VOSpCO2 system. Two units are currently operativeon R/V G.O. Sars and M/V Nuka Arctica whilea third one will be soon operational at WeatherStation Mike in the Norwegian Sea. Thesemeasurement systems are used to monitor theCO2 fluxes in the Nordic Seas and provideBCCR´s contribution to a global network ofcarbon underway measurements coordinated bythe International Ocean Carbon CoordinationProject (IOCCP), under the auspices ofIOC/UNESCO and SCOR. The ultimate goalis to develop an international implementationstrategy for a global network of earth systemobservations within the international EarthSystem Science Partnership (ESSP).The Bjerknes-Neill VOS pCO2 system hasproved to be robust, reliable and delivers highquality data, proof of which is the big demandfor the instrument, e.g. 5 units were delivered tothe National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) in the USA, one tothe Commonwealth Scientific and IndustrialResearch Organisation (CSIRO) in Australiaand 3 to European partners in the EU CAR-BOOCEAN Integrated Project coordinated bythe University of Bergen and the BjerknesCentre for Climate Research.■ Personnel involvedCraig Neill, Kelly Brown and AbdirahmanOmar, BCCR.12 Annual Report 2004

St. MNuka ArcticaQuaternary Glaciations-A Global perspective25-26 November, Realfag-bygget,University of Bergen:Prof. Jan Mangerud from the Department ofEarth Sciences (IGF), UoB and affiliated withthe BCCR, retired in the autumn of 2004. Jan´soutstanding scientific contribution, inspiratorand leading role behind the growth of Quater-nary studies and paleoclimatology in Bergencannot be overemphasised. For the occasion,IFG and the BCCR co-organised a 2-day scientificseminar in his honour.The seminar featuredkeynote presentations from eighteen internationallyacknowledged scientists in Europe andNorth America specially invited for the occasionand a total of 24 poster presentations.Invited speakers to the seminar QuaternaryGlaciations- A global perspective honouringProf. Jan Mangerud for a long-life scientificcareerAnnual Report 200413

Highlights from international meetings■ Bjerknes Centenary 2004:Climate Change in High Latitudes1-3 September 2004,Radisson SAS Hotel Bryggen,Bergen, NorwayThe Bjerknes Centre for ClimateResearch organised a 3-day internationalopen science conferencewhere climate scientists gatheredto discuss key issues of the coupledclimate system.Invited speakers and sponsors pose in theirnewly acquired Bergen souvenir during theConference´s dinner.THE OBJECTIVE of the meeting was toimprove the prediction and assessment ofregional impacts of climate change in the polarand sub-polar regions.The event would also commemorate the centenaryof Vilhelm Bjerknes´ seminal paper of1904 where he proposed the procedure nowknown as numerical weather forecasting,paving the way for modern meteorology andcontributing to modern climate research.The event gathered a total of 281 delegatesfrom 21 countries in a truly interdisciplinaryeffort that covered the disciplines of oceanography,geophysics, geology, mathematics, meteorology,biogeochemistry and climate modelling.The unusually wide scope of the conferenceallowed for observationalists (both paleoclimatologistsand oceanographers) and modellersto meet and discuss aspects of modernclimate research in an integrated way.The event was formally opened by the vice-rectorof the University of Bergen, Prof. RuneNilsen, who emphasised that: "Hundred yearsafter Bjerknes fundamental studies leading tomodern weather forecasting, the science foundationsare now being established to make climate-changeforecasting a reality".The meeting featured three invited lectures, 34keynote talks and 210 poster presentations distributedamong five thematic sessions: (1)Ocean, land, sea-ice response to atmosphericvariability; (2) Abrupt climate change; (3)Coupled ocean-land-sea ice- atmosphereprocesses; (4) High resolution palaeoclimaticreconstructions; and (5) Carbon cycle and highlatitudeclimate processes. Distinguished guestssuch as Bob R. Dickson from CEFAS, UK;Anton Eliassen from the NorwegianMeteorological Institute, and Rowan Suttonfrom the University of Reading lectured onVilhelm and Jacob Bjerknes legacies.The Bjerknes Centenary 2004 was co-sponsoredby the University of Bergen, the ResearchCouncil of Norway, the Norwegian Ministriesof Environment, Foreign affairs and Fisheries,the Royal Norwegian Embassy in WashingtonD.C., STATOIL, the G. C. RieberFoundations, Aanderaa AS, European SpaceAgency, the Scientific Committee on OceanicResearch (SCOR) and the Municipality ofBergen.14 Annual Report 2004

Bjerknes Centrefor Climate ResearchBJERKNES CENTENARY 2004, Open Science ConferenceClimate Change in High LatitudesSeptember 1-3, 2004 - Bergen, NorwayThe conference will commemorate the centenary of Vilhelm Bjerknes' pioneer publication of1904: The problem of weather forecasting as a problem in mechanics and physics (Met. Zeits.,Wien 21:1-7) that paved the way for modern meteorology and practical weather forecasting, andalso led to modern climate research.The conference will focus on climate change in polar andsub-polar regions by featuring:•Keynote talks by invited speakers•Plenary and poster presentations• Discussion forumsContributions are solicited on research topics that include,but are not limited to:• Ocean, land, sea ice response to atmospheric variability• Abrupt climate changes and extreme weather events• Coupled ocean-land-sea ice- atmosphere processes•High resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions•Carbon cycle and high-latitude climate processesScientific Programme CommitteeEystein Jansen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway - ChairLennart Bengtsson, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, GermanySvante Björck, Lund University, SwedenRay Bradley. University of Massachusetts, USAPeter deMenocal, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, USAJean Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, FranceSigbjørn Grønås, University of Bergen, NorwayJens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Danish Meteorological Institute, DenmarkOla M. Johannessen, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, NorwayFortunat Joos, University of Bern, SwitzerlandJean Jouzel, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, FranceMojib Latif, Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie, GermanyNick McCave, Cambridge University, UKLawrence A. Mysak, Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, CanadaUlf Riebesell, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, GermanyThomas Stocker, University of Bern, SwitzerlandMartin Visbek, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, USAConference web site & email: the organiserThe Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) is a joint climate research venturebetween the University of Bergen, the Institute of Marine Research and theNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center. The BCCR is the largestclimate research group in the natural sciences in Norway and in 2002 it wasawarded the status of a national Center of Excellence by the Research Council ofNorway.With a doubling of present-day CO2 concentrationin the atmosphere model projections indicatethat the largest increases in surface airtemperature will occur in the Arctic region(Source: Bergen Climate Model)6420-2-4-6Annual Report 200415

Education &recruitmentIn 2004, BCCR scientists providedsupervision and training in climateresearch to 22 doctoral students,7 of which defended theirPhD dissertations, as follows:1. Anne BjuneHolocene vegetational and climatichistory at or near tree-line in contrastingareas of Norway inferredfrom pollen and plant microfossils inlake sediments.Institute of Biology, UoB2. Jostein BakkeLate Weischelian and Holocene glacierfluctuations along a south-northcoastal transect in Norway - climaticand methodological implications.Institute of Geography, UoB.3. Wenche EidePlant macrofossils as a terrestrial climatearchive for the last 11 000 yearsin south and central Norway.Institute of Biology, UoBNew researchThe following applications tothe 2nd call of EU´s 6thFramework Programme successfullypassed evaluationsand negotiations:■■Marine carbon sources and sinksassessment (CARBOOCEANS). Anintegrated project coordinated by Prof.Christoph Heinze, BCCR. CARBO-OCEANS involves 49 partners from 23countries and will run for 5 yearsstarting January 1st, 2005.ENSEMBLE-based Predictions ofClimate Changes and their Impacts(ENSEMBLES). An integrated Projectcoordinated by D. Griggs, Director ofthe Hadley Centre, UK. BCCR ispartner via NERSC.Web site:■■European Network of Excellence forOcean Ecosystem Analysis (EURO-CEANS). Network of Excellence coordinatedby L. Legendre and P. Treguer,CNRS, France. EUROCEANS involvemore than 60 research institutions anduniversities from 25 countries. It willrun for 4 years starting January 1st,2005. BCCR is partner through IMRand NERSC and participates in a jointNorwegian consortium.Web site http://www.eur-oceans.orgUnderstanding the dynamics of thecoupled climate system (DYNA-MITE). A STREP coordinated byProf. Helge Drange, NERSC. It willrun for 3 years starting March 1st 2005.BCCR is partner.Web site: http// Mona HenriksenLate Pleistocene stratigraphy of thePechora region, Arctic Russia.Department of Earth Science, UoB5. Hjálmar Hátún.The Faroe Current.Geophysical Institute, UoB6. Øyvind PaaschePaleoclimate variability in arcticNorway constrained by physicalparameters of lake sediments.Department of Earth Science, UoB7 Bjørg Risebrobakken"Ocean-ice sheet interactions andpalaoceanographic variability in theeastern Nordic Seas through the last140 000 years".Department of Earth Science, UoBOutreach activitiesAn important mission of the BCCR is to enhance public awareness and understanding of keyprocesses involved in the climate system and the potential consequences of climate change. In 2004,Bjerknes scientists contributed to the popularisation of its science through the publication of populararticles (32), invited lectures (8) and more than 36 entries in the mass media (chronicles, articlesin newspapers and interviews in radio and TV).16 Annual Report 2004

International engagementIn 2004, Bjerknes scientists participated in a number of scientific orassessment committees and working groups from the followinginternational programmes:UN Intergovernmental Panel for ClimateChange (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report■ Prof. Eystein Jansen is Coordinator LeadAuthor of chapter 6 "Palaeoclimates" whileProf. Christoph Heinze is Lead Author ofchapter 8 "Biogeochemistry"International Geosphere-Biosphereprogramme (IGBP)■ Surface Ocean Low Atmosphere Study(SOLAS)■ Climate variability and the responses of theBarents Sea (ESSAS/GLOBEC),■ PAGES´ international marine past globalchanges study (IMAGES)■ Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry andEcosystem Research (IMBER)■ Past Global Changes (PAGES) and thePAGES/CLIVAR joint panelArctic Council and the International ArcticScience Committee (IASC)■ Report of the Arctic Climate InternationalAssessment (ACIA). The following BCCRscientists contributed to the ACIA report:Lead Author Harald Loeng and Contributingauthors E. Jansen, H. Drange,R. Bellerby, S. Østerhus, T. Furevik.Arctic Research Planning■ Prof. H. Drange, NERSC/BCCR participatedin the working group (WG) for theSecond international conference for ArcticResearch Planning (ICARP II) in fall2005. The WG will address future trendsMeetingsand pattern of change in climate, ozone,ecosystem and other systems in the Arctic.The WG will produce a white paper (i.e ascience plan) in advance for the conference.The final paper will be presented at the2006 Arctic Science Summit Week.Visiting Fellow Programme■ BCCR sponsors a Visiting FellowProgramme in order to foster research collaborationin climate change with theinternational community. In 2004, theCoE hosted 71 scientists whose collectivestays accounted for about 0.8 person-years.Eighteen percent of the scientists werewomen.Country # visiting scientistsAustralia 2Austria 1Belgium 1Canada 2Chile 1Croatia 1Denmark 2France 7Germany 10India 2Japan 2Poland 2South Africa 1Sweden 2Switzerland 2UK 12USA 21TOTAL 71International conferences and seminars under the auspices of BCCR■ International workshop: Overflows and straits of the Nordic Seas:Processes, causalities and climatic links, March 22-23, Geophysical Institute & NERSC■ Seasonal to annual prediction of the atmosphere, ocean and ecosystems, 30 March,Geophysical Institute■ What's determining Europe's mild climate? June 17, Institute of Marine Research■ Bjerknes Centenary 2004: Climate Change in High Latitudes, 1-3 September 2004,SAS Radisson Hotel Bryggen, Bergen.■ Quaternary Glaciations -A global perspective, 25-26 November, Realfagbygget, UoB■ Meeting of the SOLAS Steering Scientific Committee, June 16-18, BCCRNew initiativesandcollaborationBCCR have established cooperationagreements with Aanderaa AS and theInternational Centre for Geohazards inTrondheim.Awardsandprices■■■■■■Annual Report 2004Finn Malgrem Pris 2004 for theamount of 61 000 SEK awarded toDr.Anna Sjöblom for her outstandingPhD dissertation.Honour member of the BotanicalSociety of Scotland, awarded toProf. H. John B. Birks for his contributionto the knowledge andunderstanding of past and presentScottish vegetation.COMER foundation awarded300 000 US dollars to AssociateProfessor Ulysses Ninnemann insupport of palaeoclimate research inthe Southern Ocean. In this wayNinnemann become a member of anetwork of outstanding scientistssupported by the COMER foundation.Best student oral presentationawarded to doctoral student Anne-Grete B. Pytte at the UK luminescenceand ESR Dating Conference,St.Andrews 2004, UKBest student poster presentationawarded to doctoral student IngoBethke during the BjerknesCentenary 2004: Climate change inHigh Latitudes, 1-3 September2004, Bergen, NorwayBest student poster presentationawarded to master student studentChristine Euler at the 8thInternational conference on palaeoceanography, 5-8 September 2004,Biarritz, France.17

BudgetFunding sourcesThe Research Council of Norway contributes25% of the BCCR budget. The University ofBergen, the host institution, contributes with32% in the form of in-kind support of facultyand recruiting positions, infrastructure, shiptime,and communications.The BCCR activepartners, the Institute of Marine Researchand the Nansen Environmental and RemoteSensing Centre (NERSC), contribute altogether12% of the total. Research grants(projects) provided 30% of the income, bothfrom national (e.g. RCN and industry) andinternational (e.g. EU, international agreements)funds.Funding SourcesMNOKResearch Council of Norway 17.0University of Bergen 21.5Nansen Environmental &Remote Sensing Center 4.0Institute of Marine Research 4.0Research grants (national funds) 14.5Research grants(international funds) 5.2Total 66.2ExpendituresSalaries and wages, subcontracting and contributionto the active partners NERSC andIMR comprised the largest expenditures during2004. Other costs included:■ purchase of equipment (8%)■ travels and meetings (7%)■ consultant services (6%)■ and running costs (11%)18 Annual Report 2004

PERSONNELForeign nationalities in parenthesisScientistsBjørn ÅdlandsvikPhysical oceanography & modellingLars AsplinPhysical oceanography & modellingRichard Bellerby (UK)BiogeochemistryHilary Birks (UK)Numerical methods in palaeoclimatologyH. John B. Birks (UK) Terrestrial biological climate proxiesPaul Budgell (Canada)Ocean modellingCarin A. DahlPalaeoclimatologySvein Olaf DahlGlaciers & palaeoclimatologyTrond DokkenPalaeoclimatologyKen Drinkwater (Canada)Oceanography & impacts of climate changeTor EldevikOcean processes & modellingIlker Fer (Turkey)Ocean processesFrode FlatøyAtmospheric chemistry & modellingTore FurevikClimate modellingTor GammelsrødPolar oceanographySigbjørn GrønåsSynoptic meteorologyPeter HauganPolar oceanographyChrisoph HeinzeCarbon cycle modellingSolfrid HjølloOcean circulationEystein JansenPalaeoclimatologyAlastair Jenkins (UK)Boundary layer physicsOla M. JohannessenRemote sensing, marginal ice dynamicsTruls JohannessenBiogeochemistryIna KindemStratospheric physicsHelga F. KleivenPalaeoclimatologyNils Gunnar KvamstøAtmospheric modellingHarald LoengPhysical oceanography, arctic climateKetil LygreBiogeochemistry & modellingJan MangerudPalaeoclimatologyMartin Miles (USA)Climate time series analysisKjell A. MorkPhysical oceanographyAtle NesjePalaeoclimatologyUlysses Ninnemann (USA)PalaeoclimatologySvein ØsterhusPhysical oceanographyFrancisco ReyOcean climates & biogeochemistryAnne B. SandøOcean modellingØystein SkagsethOcean circulationMorten SkogenCoupled physical and biological modellingHenrik SøilandOcean modellingAsgeir SortebergClimate modellingJakob StamnesApplied physics, climate modellingJan E. StiansenImpact of climate change on ecosystemsSvein SundbyOcean climatesEinar SvendsenPhysical oceanography & modellingJohn I. SvendsenPalaeoclimatologyRichard Telford (UK)PalaeoclimatologyPostdocsJostein BakkeMats BentsenAnne BjuneWenche EideIgor Esau (Russia)Yonqi GaoEinar HeegardMona HenriksenRandi IngvaldsenYoshie Kasajima (Japan)Dorthe K. KristensenØyvind LiePalaeoclimatologyClimate modellingPalaeobotanyPalaeobotanyEnvironmental boundary layersOcean circulation modellingPalaeoecologyPalaeoclimatologyPhysical oceanographyMesocale oceanographyPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologyAnnual Report 200419

Postdocs (cont)Henriette LingeShujie Ma (China)Matthias Moros (Germany)Jan Even Ø. NilsenKerim H. NisanciogluAnders Olsson (Sweden)Are OlssenAbidrahman OmarOdd H. OtteråØyvind PaascheBjørg RisebrobakkenAnne SandvikAnna Sjöblom (Sweden)Ingunn SkjelvanLars H. SmedsrudFrode VikebøPalaeoclimatologyModelling, downscalingPalaeoclimatologyClimate modellingPalaeoclimatologyChemical oceanographyBiogeochemistryChemical oceanographyClimate modellingPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologyMesoscale atmospheric modellingBoundary layer meteorologyChemical oceanographyPolar OceanographyClimate impacts on marine ecosystemsPhD studentsIngo Bethke (Germany)Øivind ByrkjedalElin Darelius (Sweden)Dorothea Iovino (Italy)Carolina Kivimae (Sweden)Eirik KolstadBen Marzeion (Germany)Marius MelandBirgitte F. NylandAnne-Grete B. PytteIvar SeierstadAnders SirevaagYongyia Song (China)Karolina WidellOcean modellingMeteorologyPolar oceanographyMeridional overturning circulationChemical oceanographyClimate downscalingMeridional overturning circulationPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologyMeteorology & teleconnectionsPhysical OceanographyClimate downscalingPhysical oceanographyTechnical staffDag BlindheimWenche BreyholtzKelly Brown (USA)Odd HansenHerbjørn HeggenSolveig KringstadCraig C. Neill (USA)Ann Kristin ØstremLiv SennesetRune SøraasPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologyChemical OceanographyPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologyChemical OceanographyChemical OceanographyOceanographic time series, databasesPalaeoclimatologyPalaeoclimatologySecretariatPersonnel summary APerson/yearsPers. summary ABeatriz Balino Science coordinator Person-yearsConnie E. Engstad Human resources Scientists 26Tordis Lerøen Adm. secretary (deputy for Olsen) Postdocs 25Charla M. Olsen Adm.secretary (on mother´s leave) PhD students 14Geir S. Skaten Financial officer Technicians 11Administration 4Total 80Personnel summary BNumber of scientificpositions sorted bycategory and by partnerPers. summary BPartner Foreigners WomenPosition BCCR UoB IMR NERSC Total % %Scientists 17 13 11 5 46 26 13Postdocs 14 7 2 5 28 29 43PhD students - 11 - 3 14 43 43Total 31 31 13 13 88Percentages of non-Norwegians and female scientists are indicated20 Annual Report 2004

RESEARCH PROJECTSProjects funded by the Research Council of NorwayDURATIONCoordinator/partnerEffects of North Atlantic Climate Variability on the Barents Sea Ecosystem (ECOBE) 2003-06 S. Sundby ■Marine climate and ecosystems in the seasonal ice zone (MACESIZ) 2003-06 O.M. Johannessen ■Norwegian Ocean Climate Project (NOClim II) 2003-06 P. Haugan ■Past Climates of the Norwegian Region (NORPAST II) 2003-06 A. Nesje ●Norwegian Palaeo Environment and Climate (NORPEC) 2000-04 A. Nesje ●Palaeo environment and climate history of the Russian Arctic (PECHORA II) 2003-06 J.I. Svendsen ■Polar Ocean Climate processes (PROCLIM) 2003-06 P. Haugan ■Regional Climate Development under Global Warming (RegCLIM III) 2003-06 S. Grønås ■Spatial and temporal variability of currents and transportof warm waters in the Nordic Seas (NUCA ARCTICA) 2002-06 H. Svendsen ■External and internal forced variability of the Atlantic Europeanclimate system over the last millennium 2003-06 H. Drange ■Abrupt and large scale climatic and glacial changes in westernNorway 14,000-9,000 years BP 2002-04 J. Mangerudv ■Seasonal forecast of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations with tropospherestratospheremodels 2002-04 N.-G. Kvamstøv ■Decadal to century scale changes in the vertical water mass structureof the Norwegian Sea - climatic implications and possible forcing 2002-04 E. Jansen ■Atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions studies 2003-05 P. Haugan ■Carbon flux and ecosystem feedback in the northern Barents Seain an era of climate change (CABANERA) 2002-06 T. Johannessen ●■ Coordinator● PartnerResearch projects funded by EU’s 5th Framework ProgrammeDURATION TYPE Coordinator/partnerCoordinated European Surface ocean Palaeo-estimation Collaboration (CESOP) 2002-04 ■ RTD E. JansenEuropean directory of the initial ocean observing system (EDIOS) 2001-04 ● RTD H. LoengMeridional Overturning Exchange with the Nordic Seas (MOEN) 2002-04 ■ RTD S. ØsterhusModel and observation test climate feedback (MOTIF) 2003-06 ■ RTD E. JansenNorthern ocean-atmosphere carbon exchanges study (NOCES) 2002-04 ● RTD H. DrangePatterns of Climate Variability in the North Atlantic (PACLIVA) 2002-04 ■ RTD E. JansenTracer and circulation in the Nordic Seas (TRACTOR) 2001-04 ● RTD T. JohannessenRole of ice-ocean-atmosphere processes in high-latitude climate change 2001-06 ■ MCTS P. HauganQuantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions from lake sediments (QPALCLIM) 2001-04 ● MCTS J. BirksBCCR is ■ Coordinator or ● PartnerRTD: Research, Technology and Demonstration projectMCTS: Marie Curie Training SiteProjects funded by other sourcesTITLE SCIENTISTS FUNDING AGENCYA Lagrangian study of the Iceland-Faroe front, a major S. Østerhus, H. Søi- US National Sciencelink between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas land, S. Sundby Foundation & BCCRFilschner ice shelf water plume study S. Østerhus British Antarctic SurveyAnnual Report 200421

SELECTED PUBLICATIONSBjerknes Scientists are indicated in bold1) Bellerby, R.G.J., M. Hoppema, E. Fahrbach, H.J.W. de Baar and M. Stoll (2004). "Inter-annual controls on WedellSea surface fCO2 during the autumn-winter transition phase." Deep-Sea Research I, 51: 793-808.2) Bentsen, M., H. Drange, T. Furevik and T. Zhou (2004). "Simulated variability of the Atlantic thermohaline meridional circulation."Climate Dynamics 22(6-7): 701-720.3) Fer, I., R. Skogseth and P.M. Haugan (2004). "Mixing of the Storfjorden overflow (Svalbard Archipelago) inferred from density overturns."Journal of Geophysical Research 109(C01005), doi:10.1929/2003JC001968.4) Foldvik, A., T. Gammelsrød, S. Østerhus, E. Fahrbach, G.Rohardt, K. Schrøder, K.W. Nicholls, L. Padman and R.A. Woodgate (2004)."Overflow and bottom water formation in the Southern Weddell Sea." Journal of Geophysical Research 109, C02015, doi:10.1029/2003JC002008, 2004.5) Heinze, C. (2004). "Simulating the CaCO3 counter pump in the greenhouse."Geophysical Research Letters 31(L16308), doi:10.1029/2004GL026013.6) Ingvaldsen, R., L. Asplin and H. Loeng (2004). "The velocity field of the western entrance to the Barents Sea."Journal of Geophysical Research 109(3), Art. No. C03021.7) Johannessen, O.M., L. Bengtsson, M.W. Miles, S.I. Kuzmina, V. A. Semenov, G.V. Alekseev, A.P. Nagurny, V.F. Zakharov, L.P. Bobylev,L.H. Petterson, H.K. and H.P. Cattle (2004). "Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variabiity."Tellus 56A(4): 328-341.8) Krinner, G., J. Mangerud, M. Jakobsson, M. Crucifix, C. Ritz and J.I. Svendsen (2004). "Enhanced ice sheet growth inEurasia owing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes." Nature 427: 429 - 432; doi:10.1038/nature02233.9) Kvamstø, N.G., P. Skeie and D. B. Stephenson (2004). "Impact of Labrador Sea Ice Extent on the North Atlantic Oscillation." InternationalJournal of Climatology 24(603-612), doi: 10.1002/joc.1015.10) Lamy, F., J. Kaiser, U. Ninnemann, D. Hebbeeln, A.H.W. and J. Stoner (2004). "Antarctic timing of surface water changes off Chile andPatagonian ice-sheet response." Science 304: 1959-1962.11) Mangerud, J., M.Jakobsson, H. Alexanderson, V.I. Astakhov, G.K.C. Clarke, M. Henriksen, C. Hjort, G. Krinner, J. P. Lunkka, P. Möller,A. Murray, O. Nikolskaya, M. Saarnisto and J.I. Svendsen (2004). "Ice-dammed lakes and rerouting of the drainage of Northern Eurasiaduring the last glaciation." Quaternary Science Review 23: 1313-1332.12) Moros, M., K. Emeis, B. Risebrobakken, I. Snowball, A. Kuijpers, J. McManus and E. Jansen (2004). "Sea surface temperatures and icerafting in the Holocene North Atlantic: climate influence on northern Europe and Greenland." Quaternary Science Reviews 23(20-22):2113-2126.13) Nesje, A., S.O. Dahl and Ø. Lie (2004). "Holocene millennial-scale summer temperature variability inferred from sediment parameters in anon-glacial mountaine lake: Danntjørn, Jotunheimen, central southern Norway." Quaternary Science Reviews 23(20-22): 2183-2205.14) Olsen, A., A. Omar, A. Stuart-Menteth and J. Trinanes (2004). "Diurnal variations of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux evaluatedusing remotely sensed data." Geophysical Research Letters 31(L20304): doi:10.1029/2004GL02583.15) Otterå, H.O. and H. Drange (2004). "A possible coupling between Arctic fresh water, the Arctic sea ice cover and the North Atlantic Drift. Acase study." Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21(5): 784-801.16) Otterå, O.H., H. Drange, M. Bentsen, and N.G. Kvamsto and D. Jiang (2004). "Transient response of the Atlantic Meridional OverturningCirculation to enhanced freshwater input to the Nordic Seas-Arctic Ocean in the Bergen Climate Model." TELLUS Series A - DynamicalMeteorology and Oceanography 56(A): 342-361.17) Skagseth, Ø., K. A. Orvik and A. Furevik (2004). "Coherent variability of the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current from TOPEX/ERS altimeterdata." Geophysical Research Letters 31(L14304), doi: 10.1029/2004GL020057,2004.18) Svendsen, J.I., H. Alexanderson, V. I. Astakhov, I. Demidov, J. A. Dowdeswell, S. Funder, G. Gataullin, M. Henriksen, C. Hjort, M.Houmark-Nielsen, H. W. Hubberten, O. Ingólfsson, M. Jakobsson, K. Kjær, E. Larsen, Lokrantz, H., J. P. Lunkka, A. Lyså, J. Mangerud, A.Matiouchkov, A. Murray, P. Möller, F. Niessen, O. Nikolskaya, L. Polyak, m. Saarnisto, C. Siegert, M. Siegert, R. Spielhagen and R. Stein(2004). "Late Quaternary ice sheet history of Northern Eurasia." Quaternary Science Reviews 23: 1229-1271.19) Telford, R. J., C. Andersson, H.J.B. Birks and S. Juggins (2004). "Biases in the estimation of transfer function prediction errors."Paleoceanography 19(PA4014): doi:10.1029/2004PA001072A complete listing of peer reviewed publications is available at Annual Report 2004

Vilhelm Bjerknes and hisson, Jacob, are regarded asthe founders of the "BergenSchool of Meteorology”.They applied hydrodynamicand thermodynamictheories in order to predictfuture weather conditions.Bjerknes: Pioneers inmodern meteorologyand climate researchThe methods developed bythis school led to a breakthroughfor new knowledgeand applications inpractical weather forecastingand it transferredweather forecasting from adescriptive exercise basedon local experience andintuition to a disciplinebased on the basic equationsof fluid dynamics.Thereafter, weather forecastingwas based to agreater extent on scientificprinciples, with a muchdenser network of observationstations and later, withnumerical prediction models.Bjerknes' work wasvital to our understandingof the movements of airand ocean masses, in particularof how these resultfrom thermal processes.Vilhelm and Jacob Bjerknesconducted severalstudies that laid the basisfor modern research on climatechange and the role ofthe ocean in the climatesystem.The Centre is thus namedas a tribute to their efforts.Vilhelm F.K. Bjerknes(1862-1951)Annual Report 2004Jacob A.B. Bjerknes(1897-1975)23

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