McGlade_Lessons from the future_ unblocking ... - Berlin Conference

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McGlade_Lessons from the future_ unblocking ... - Berlin Conference

Saturday October 6 th 2012Lessons from the future:unblocking the science-policy interfaceProf. Jacqueline McGladeExecutive Director, EEA


25-06-1736 AUVRIGNON Michel p= † François x † Jeanne GUILLOCHEAUx BOUILLETEAU Marie Vve/Pierre MICHEL27-09-1737 AUVRIGNON Jean p= † Michel x † Jeanne BOURGETx HUTEAU Jeanne p= René x † Renée CHERPENTIER07-02-1741 BABIN Estienne p=† Simon x † Renée CHENAYx MOREAU Angélique p=† Louis x † Marie BRETONNIÈRE11-11-1710 BABIN Julien p= Joseph x Renée PINEAUx CHENUAU Valérienne p= Louis x Noelle PINEAU22-06-1734 BABIN Julien p= † Syphorien x † Jeanne SUISSEAUx LECOINDRE Jeanne vve/Joseph LE VEZIN27-06-1735 BABIN Jacques vf/Marie BARILLÉx LETOURNEUX Marie Vve/Pierre CHARPENTIER06-02-1714 BABIN Louis p= Louis x Guillemine CLEMENTx CHAUVET Perrine p=Luc x Perrine MARIOT10-04-1742 BABIN Mathurin p= Mathurin x Julienne BOUYERx GARNIER Marguerite p= † Pierre x Marguerite CHIFOLEAU, bpr=Joseph MICHEL23-02-1740 BABIN René p= † Jean x Renée GODFROY farinierx BOUYER Jeanne p=† Maurice x Perrine BAHUAUD29-01-1743 BABIN René p= René x Anne SAUVESTREx DAVID Jeanne p= Jacques x François ALLARD °Chapelle Basse Mer o=Julien DAVID28-04-1711 BABONNEAU Mathurin (parents non cités ) t=Eutrope CHON, Pierre BRETIN, Lorent GUILLOUx LESNÉ Magdelaine (parents nons cités)03-02-1712 BABONNEAU Louis p= René x Louise PINEAU °La Remaudièrex PINEAU Julienne vve/Laurent PINEAU06-02-1714 BABONNEAU Jacques p= † Jacques x Françoise BABINx HALBERT Renée p= Mathieu x Jeanne PINEAU01-02-1734 BABONNEAU Damien p= Jean x Jeanne TEIGNÉ °La Remaudière vit au Lorouxx BONNEAU Madeleine p= René x Jeanne BOUYER03-05-1734 BABONNEAU Laurent p= † Jean x Renée DOUINEAU °Chapelle Basse Merx BABIN Perrine vve/Laurent CHATEIGNÈ07-07-1739 BABONNEAU Pierre p= † Georges x † Jeanne BABONNEAUx LETOURNEUX Marie p= † Pierre x † Marie TURLIÈRE29-01-1743 BABONNEAU Michel p= Louis x † Julienne PINEAU °La Remaudièrex BABIN Marie p= René x Anne SAUVESTRE, fr=Mathurin11-02-1744 BABONNEAU Michel p= Jean x Michelle GARTIAUx BRETONNIÈRE Julienne p=Mathurin x † Mathurine PIAU06-09-1712 BADAUD François p= Brice x Marguerite BONNEAUx LUCAS Jeanne p= Mathurin? x Michelle BARILLE23-05-1712 BAGRIN Anthoine p= Damien x (non mentionnée)x GODFROY Marie p= † Julien x (non mentionnée)01-03-1740 BAHUAU Guillaume vf/Catherine MEILLERAYx VEAU Louise Vve/Yves PALUSEAU °La Haye Fouassière16-01-1713 BAHUAUD Guillaume p=† Pierre x Mathurine BABONNEAUx TETARD Renée P=† Pierre x † Julienne CHARON °La Boissière02-03-1734 BAHUAUD Paul p= † Mathurin x Françoise BONNEMEAU °Vallet, vit au Lorouxx GIRAUD Xainte p=† Louis, notaire, x Xainte HAOUIS11-01-1735 BAHLIAUD Julien p= † Pierre x Julienne POUIVETx CHAMPION Françoise p= † René x Françoise SIMONEAU, fr de mère=René GAUDIN2


The 2007 Stern Review of Climate Change• The Stern review made clearthe future costs of inaction toshow that preventive earlyaction would be cheaper thandealing with the effects ofclimate change.• Dealing with the costs of• Dealing with the costs ofclimate change could bebetween 5% and 20% of GDP,but preventive action wouldonly cost 3% of GDP.


The 2007 Stern Review of Climate Change• The Stern review made clearthe future costs of inaction toshow that preventive earlyaction would be cheaper thandealing with the effects ofclimate change• Dealing with the costs ofclimate change could bebetween 5% and 20% of GDP,but preventive action wouldonly cost 3% of GDP• The Stern review promptedchanges in EU and UK climatechange policy


The phase-out of leaded petrol• The phase-out of leaded petrolalso made the costs of inactionclear, this time by connectinglead exposure to IQ loss


The phase-out of leaded petrol• The phase-out of leaded petrolalso made the costs of inactionclear, this time by connectinglead exposure to IQ loss• IQ loss could be translated tolower earnings over a lifetimeand therefore to a social cost


‘Discounting’ for the time value of money


Discounting presents a problem• Future costs of inaction (andtherefore future benefits fromaction) are not equivalent tocurrent costs of preventiveaction2012 2030


Discounting presents a problem• Future costs of inaction (andtherefore future benefits fromaction) are not equivalent tocurrent costs of preventiveaction2012 2030• We can make these two costscomparable by means of a‘discount rate’, but establishinga discount rate is highlycomplex and is likely to remainan ongoing problem inenvironmental policy


Accounting for the ‘time value of harm’…How could wemeasure thevalue of a oneyeardecline in lifeexpectancy forthis boy?


Accounting for the ‘time value of harm’…How could wemeasure thevalue of a oneyear decline in lifeexpectancy forthis boy?Would it be theWould it be thesame as a oneyear reductionin lifeexpectancy forhisgrandfather?


..and the time value of time itself…Problems include:• How to value human lives?• How to value years in humanlives• How to value periods of• How to value periods ofgreater and lesser health atdifferent stages of life


..and the time value of time itself…Problems include:• How to value human lives?• How to value years in humanlives• How to value periods ofgreater and lesser health atdifferent stages of lifeThese calculations may make iteasier to assess policy decisions,but they are highly complex, andwill always be the subject ofdispute


Nitrates and scientific uncertainty• WHO believes the link between cancerand nitrates in drinking water is only apossibility


Nitrates and scientific uncertainty• WHO believes the link between cancerand nitrates in drinking water is only apossibility• Where science is uncertain, it is notpossible to provide an accurateassessment of the costs of inaction


Nitrates and scientific uncertainty• WHO believes the link between cancerand nitrates in drinking water is only apossibility• Where science is uncertain, it is notpossible to provide an accurateassessment of the costs of inaction• This means there is a role for a riskbasedapproach, and for ‘crossreferencing’of different policy goals. Forexample, in the case of nitrates,decreasing a health risk will alsodecrease water eutrophication.


Nitrates and scientific uncertainty• WHO believes the link between cancerand nitrates in drinking water is only apossibility• Where science is uncertain, it is notpossible to provide an accurateassessment of the costs of inaction• This means there is a role for a riskbasedapproach, and for ‘crossreferencing’of different policy goals. Forexample, in the case of nitrates,decreasing a health risk will alsodecrease water eutrophication.• The precautionary principle is moreimportant than ever


Thank you!Jacqueline McGladejacqueline.mcglade@eea.europa.eu

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