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July - Bombardier

July - Bombardier

BY SEAT SEGMENT,AFRICA

BY SEAT SEGMENT,AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST,2012-2031Total: 970 Units2%62%DEMAND DISTRIBUTION BY SEAT SEGMENT36%DEMAND DISTRIBUTIONBY SEAT SEGMENT,NORTH AMERICA, 2012-2031Total: 4,730 UnitsDEMAND DISTRIBUTIONBY SEAT SEGMENT, EUROPE(INCL. RUSSIA & CIS), 2012-2031Total: 2,240 UnitsLegend20- to 59-seatDEMAND DISTRIBUTION 60- to 99-seatDEMAND DISTRIBUTIONBY SEAT SEGMENT, 100- to 149-seatBY SEAT SEGMENT,ASIA/PACIFIC, Source: Bombardier 2012-2031 Commercial Aircraft Market ForecastCHINA,2012-2031.2012-2031Total: 1,710 UnitsTotal: 2,220 UnitsDEMAND DISTRIBUTIONBY SEAT SEGMENT,LATIN AMERICA, 2012-2031Total: 930 UnitsDEMAND DISTRIBUTIONBY SEAT SEGMENT,AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST,2012-2031Total: 970 Units3%3%2%1%3%2%45%52%52%45%57%41%63%36%65%32%62%36%20- to 59-seat60- to 99-seat100- to 149-seat20- to 59-seat60- to 99-seat100- to 149-seatNorth America(including Mexico)North America will maintain its leadershipposition over the course of the next 20 years,and is expected to require more than 4,700new commercial aircraft, or 37 per cent ofworld demand.North America’s large installed fleetbase requires constant replenishmentand renewal. As air carriers in the regionregain financial strength following a periodof declining passenger loads, financialfailures, bankruptcies, restructurings andconsolidations, their attention will focuson cost control strategies that includeexpanding scope clauses to cover largeraircraft, capacity planning and optimizingtheir asset use.One key will be fleet renewal that deliverssignificant improvements in operatingefficiency and flexibility. New aircraft thatburn less fuel and deliver other operatingefficiencies are certain to be in high demandin the coming cycle of fleet renewal.Europe(including Russia and CIS)Anticipated deliveries for this region,2,240 units, are unchanged fromBombardier’s 2011 forecast, as a significantincrease in expected Russia and CISdeliveries is offset by projected decline indeliveries in the financially troubled Eurozone.Airline strategies have focused on costreduction as well as consolidation throughacquisition among larger airlines, whichreduces demand for new aircraft. In addition,Europe’s population density, comparativelyshort travel distances and extensive airportsecurity measures also mean that both railand road provide significant competition toair travel.In 2011, the Russian aviation authorityannounced the grounding of a number ofdomestically-built aircraft fleets. This actionhas advanced the retirement of thesealready ageing fleets, thereby creating animmediate opportunity for both new andused aircraft for the replenishment. As aresult, Bombardier has revised its forecast20- to 59-seat60- to 99-seat100- to 149-seatto increase the demand of 60- to 99-seataircraft by approximately 180 units in lastyear’s forecast to 320 units.Asia/Pacific(excluding China)This region is expected to account forapproximately 13 per cent of new aircraftdeliveries during the forecast period, largelyunchanged from the 2011 forecast andrepresenting approximately 1,710 aircraftagainst retirement of 790 units, resultingin fleet growth of 920 aircraft, to a total of2090.Connections between countries inthe region are expected to increase inboth number and extent. Larger longerrangeaircraft are increasingly required forinternational routes and, as in most otherregions addressed in this forecast and theindustry generally, the 100- to 149-seatsegment is expected to account for 57 percent of total deliveries to the region. Smaller,short-haul aircraft will be required for growthand fleet replacement in smaller markets.Growth markets linking major city pairswill be stimulated further by the continuedloosening of regulatory restraint, exceptthose relating to aircraft environmentalperformance, which are expected to remainthe strictest in the world. Modern turbopropand jet aircraft which meet these standardswill be well positioned for increasedacceptance.China(PRC)20- to 59-seat60- to 99-seat100- to 149-seatSource: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031.Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031.Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031. Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031.Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031. Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2012-2031.China’s emergence as an economicpowerhouse drives demand for new aircraftand this market is now second only to thatof North America. China is expected to takedelivery of 2,200 aircraft (including 1,400 inthe 100- to 149-seat segment) over the 20-year forecast period.China will need to aggressively build andequip a significant number of new airports,some to relieve air traffic congestion in heavilypopulated and travel areas, and still more todevelop and extend economic and social linksto remote parts of the country.20- to 59-seat60- to 99-seat100- to 149-seat20- to 59-seat60- to 99-seat100- to 149-seatChina is therefore expected to alsorequire a significant number of 60- to 99-seatregional aircraft to meet demand, as well aspilots to fly them, technicians to maintainthem and an air traffic control system withwhich to operate them safely.Latin America(including Mexico and Caribbean)Latin America’s economic growth isexpected to be among the highest at anaverage 4.1 per cent for the period, whichshould result in a medium-high growthenvironment for air travel and deliveries ofnew aircraft, which this forecast places at930 total units.The Latin American region is increasinglyhome to world-scale events such as the2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 SummerOlympic Games. These can be expected toboost regional economies and to energizethe development of infrastructure to supportair travel growth.In addition, the recent growth of lowfareair carriers is helping to make air travelmuch more accessible to the population,largely through the use of regional jets andturboprops and single-aisle mainline jetaircraft.Africa and the Middle EastDespite political uncertainty, economicgrowth is expected to be solid and slightlyabove the world average during the forecastperiod, at 3.8 per cent CAGR in the MiddleEast and 4.4 per cent in Africa.As in other regions, 100- to 149-seatairliners will dominate new aircraft deliveriesto this region, and are expected to accountfor 600 of the 970 total deliveries. Of the 970units, 420 would be delivered to the MiddleEast and 550 to Africa.7 // July 2012

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