Large Hydropower Potential and Outlook - unido

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Large Hydropower Potential and Outlook - unido

The (old) scale debateIn recent years, declarations involving more than 170 countries havereached a consensus on not differentiating technologies by scale:– 2002: UN World Summit on Sustainable Development– 2003: 3rd World Water Forum– 2004: Bonn International Conference for Renewable Energies– 2004: UN Symposium on Hydropower and SustainableDevelopment– 2006: African Ministerial Conference on Hydropower andSustainable Development– 2006: 4th World Water Forum– 2007: UN Commission on Sustainable Development – 15th session“It is no longer a question of the small or the large –it is a question of the well planned and wellmanaged.” (Dr Klaus Toepfer, UNEP, Geneva 2004)


Run-of-river (limited storage)


Pumped storage (power system support)


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Power Generation by Type (17,530 GWh in 2005)(Tripled since 1970 – OECD Growth =


Hydro Generation, by Country (2889 TWh in 2005)ROW, 550.58PR of China, 353.54Germany, 27.87Argentina, 30.53Spain, 34.44Switzerland, 35.47Austria, 38.97Colombia, 40.08Turkey, 46.08Italy, 49.91Paraguay, 51.93Sweden, 60.18France, 64.9Venezuela, 69.93India, 84.71Japan, 103.15Norway, 109.29Canada, 341.06Brazil, 320.8United States, 297.89Russia, 177.78Source: IEA, 2006


6000Growth in Electricity Generation (TWh)5000Fossil Fuels400030002000Hydropower1000Wind + Biomass + geothermal + solar01981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005Source: Energy Information Administration


Growth in Electricity Generation (TWh)12001000Hydropower800600400200Wind + Biomass+ geothermal+ solar01981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005Source: Energy Information Administration


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


World’s realistic potential developed: ~ 1/3Current hydro production: 2889 TWh/yRealistic potential production: ~ 9000 TWh/y69%75%22%33%7%~70%“For non-OECD countries, hydroelectric plants produced 1546 TWhor 21.1% of total gross production reported in 2004.This represents a 9.8% increase over the previous year.Hydro production reported by non-OECD countries has increased at anannual average rate of 4.7% since 1973.” – IEA Electricity Information, 2006Source: World Atlas of Hydropower & Dams, 2002


Technical Potential, Current Output and Realistic Potential4000350030002500200015001000Feasibility (TWh/y)Production (TWh/y)5000AfricaAsiaAustralasiaEuropeN+C AmericaSouthAmericaSource: IHA, basedon European model


250Installed Hydropower Capacity by Region 1980 to 2004Net hydro capacity (GW)200150100500N AmericaEuropeAsia & Asia OceaniaC & S AmericaEurasiaAfricaMiddle East1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004Year


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Renewables Targets (Example: European Union)


Number of Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) projectsSource: IGES, February 2008


Variability in resource availability – calling for greater integration


GeothermalareaHáganga reservoir


Pumped-storage cycle


Source:Andritz VATech Hydro


Xiluodu Dam (12 600 MW)


Clean Development MechanismHidroeléctrica La Higuera, Chile• 50% JV with Pacific Hydro• Capacity 155 MW run-of river• + thermal back-up 60 MW• Annual production 840 GWh• PPA with Chilectra 480 GWh/yr• EPC cost MUSD 160• Total project cost MUSD 270• Financial close Oct 2005• Construction start Oct 2005• Commercial operations Oct 2008• Reg. CDM project Mar 20, 2006Source: SN Power - Tinguiririca JV


NAM THEUN 2 HYDROELECTRIC PROJECTThe Project is designed to provide EGAT with 995 MW (5,636 GWh/year).In addition, it will provide EDL with 75 MW (300 GWh/year).The cost is US$ 1,450 million, financed by a combination of equity (~30%) andinternational loans (~70%).


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges - Technical5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Research and development


International RenewableEnergy AllianceHon. Peter Rae, Chair, IREAInternational Geothermal AssociationInternational Hydropower AssociationInternational Solar Energy SocietyWorld Wind Energy Associationwww.ren-alliance.org


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges – Economic/Institutional5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Economic/Institutional Challenges• Political risk and regulatory approval• Economic and financial viability• Reliability and efficiency• Project management plan• Safety• Government and proponent policies• Design, construction and operational risks, and sustainabilityperformance of suppliers• Markets, innovation and research• Linkages with comprehensive planning and strategic impactassessment• Governance, corruption, accountability, transparency• Communications• Trans-boundary issues and national security• Operational/hydrological risks


Hydropower CostsCosts of hydropower developmentProject size(MW)Development cost(US$ million/MW)Operational cost(US$/MWh)< 10 1 to >5 3 to 1010 to 100 1 to 2.8 3 to 8> 100 1 to 1.8 3 to 7


Energy Payback Ratio


Financing challenge of hydro vs fossil plantsNew buildCostOperating lifeModernization


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges - Environmental5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Environmental Challenges• Site selection and design optimization• Threshold and cumulative impacts• Construction and associated infrastructure impacts• Land management and rehabilitation• Aquatic biodiversity• Environmental flows and reservoir management• Sedimentation and erosion• Water quality• Extent and severity of environmental impacts• Air, water, soil pollution and waste management• Greenhouse gas emissions, climate change risks


GHG status of freshwater reservoirsUpland soilsLowland soilsRiverCO 2CH 4Organic and Inorganic CarbonCarbon cycle in the aquatic ecosystemSOM(Organic matter mineralization, Primary production, CH 4 oxidation…)SOM Soil Organic MatterSediment


GHG status of freshwater reservoirsTransport fromupstream unitDrivers(temperature,light, etc)GHG fluxStoragechangeProcessesStorageEventual lateraltransport toneighbour unitTransport todownstream unit


GHG status of freshwater reservoirsBefore reservoir constructionAfter reservoir constructionDivided intocomponentsDivided intocomponentsRiver basinDrivers(temperature,light, etc)ProcessesStorageGHG fluxStoragechangeTransport todownstreamunitRiver basinwithout areawith reservoirDrivers(temperature,light, etc)ProcessesStorageGHG fluxStoragechangeTransport todownstreamunitDownstreamriver reachDrivers(temperature,light, etc)Transport fromupstream unitProcessesStorageGHG fluxStoragechangeTransport todownstreamunitReservoirRiver reach between damand power plant outletDrivers(temperature,light, etc)Transport fromupstream unitStorageDrivers(temperature,light, etc)ProcessesTransport fromupstream unitGHG fluxStoragechangeProcessesStorageGHG fluxStoragechangeTransport todownstreamunitTransport todownstreamunitRiver reach downstreampower plant outletDrivers(temperature,light, etc)Transport fromupstream unitGHG fluxProcessesStorageStoragechangeTransport todownstreamunit


2008 -2011 UNESCO-IHA Research Project• Stage 1: Guidance for the standardizedmeasurement of emissions at reservoir sites• Stage 2: Site selection and measurementco-ordination• Stage 3: Data collection, analysis anddevelopment of empirical modelling tools• Stage 4: Development of process-basedmodelling tools• Stage 5: Calibration and validation of predictivetools, and project reporting


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges – Social Aspects5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Social Challenges• Social impact assessment and management planning• Broader development and benefit-sharing• Community and stakeholder consultation and support• Dispute resolution / complaints mechanisms• Public health, including HIV/AIDS• Employee and public safety• Cultural heritage• Downstream effects• Indigenous peoples• Gender issues• Improved communications and call for a sustainabilitystandard


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges – Sustainability Assessment5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Embracing sustainable developmentEconomyEnvironmentSustainabilitySocietyStriking a balanceon a foundation of sound technology


IHA Sustainability Guidelines and ProtocolAdopted in 2004 Adopted in 2006


Sustainability Assessment ProtocolTraining WorkshopsAntalya (May 2007); Chattanooga (July 2007); Manitoba (March 2008)…


IHA Congress onAdvancing Sustainable HydropowerEstablishing an international forum on sustainable hydropower


Hydropower SustainabilityAssessment ForumIHA Protocol Reference GroupIHARepresentativesEnvironmentalSpecialistsSocial-aspectsSpecialistsChairand IHA CoordinatorFinancing agencyRepresentativesDonor GovernmentRepresentativesDeveloping CountryRepresentatives


Hydropower Sustainability Assessment ForumThe goal of the first phase (two years) is to:– deliver an enhanced Protocol that canbe endorsed by a range of keystakeholder organisations, and– make recommendations on the pathwaytowards a sustainability standard.


Forum Membership• National Development and Reform Comm., China• Ministry of Energy and Water Development, Zambia• National Energy Authority, Iceland• Agency for Development Cooperation, Norway• Ministry for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment, Germany (observer)• The Nature Conservancy• World Wildlife Fund• Oxfam• Transparency International• World Bank (observer)• Equator Principles Financial Institutions Group(Equator Banks)• International Hydropower Association


Q1/08 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Q1/09 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Q1/10Introduce ProcessPriority ReviewWork on Section A+BComplete Section A+BReview Scoring SchemeWashingtonWork onissuesSacramento (USA)Kafue (Zambia)Chengdu (China)Iguassu (Brazil)Initial proposed scheduleReview workWork on Section CIstanbul (Turkey)Complete Section CDiscussion on StandardDraftReportReykjavik (Iceland)Status ReportReykjavik (Iceland)Way Forward & Final RptFinal meetingFinalReport


The Future2008 20092010ForumcommencesSustainability ForumInterimReportStatusReportTHE FUTURE:FinalReportCapacity BuildingSector has an enhanced tool to use forhydropower project improvements• Field testing the Protocol• Protocol training courses• Case notes for specific aspectsTHE POTENTIAL:International standard against whichHydropower performance is assessed


Schematic Certification SystemAssessment ProtocolCommon standardPROJECT EVALUATIONby project ownerspossibly assisted by 3 rd partyContinuousimprovementVERIFICATIONby 3 rd party expertsImprovementsuggestionsPUBLIC CERTIFICATIONBetter projects


Hydropower - Potential and OutlookPresentation Structure1. Introduction, Typology2. Deployment3. Remaining Potential and Trends4. Challenges5. Concluding RemarksRichard M. Taylor


Key Messages– Hydropower does not consume the water it uses, by managing freshwater;it can make water available for multiple purposes.– Storage hydro also offers security against drought and protection againstflood, thereby offering further climate-change mitigation services.– Currently, hydropower offsets the equivalent of 13 million barrels of oil/day.– Hydro offsets several types of air pollution (not just GHG emissions). Byworking in unison, it can reduce emissions from fossil-fuelled powerplants.– Hydro storage reservoirs provide, reliability, flexibility of operation andenergy storage, fundamental to modern power systems.– Where necessary, water can be recycled (by pumped storage) betweenreservoirs to capitalize on the flexibility of hydro generation.– Hydro can be developed in synergy with the complete family ofrenewables, thereby greatly improving the quality and security of supply.– Despite high upfront costs, hydro offers low/predictable operational costs.– Although it is not a panacea, hydro has significant untapped resources(only one third of the realistic potential has been developed).– Much of this remaining potential is in regions where new development isneeded with a sense of urgency.– The sector is investigating a sustainability standard, with guidelinesestablished.


Suggestions for further discussion• Social:– Stakeholder engagement and consultation– Resettlement and benefit-sharing• Environmental– Climate change– Water quality and environmental flows• Technological:– expertise availability and capacity-building– power system integration• Economic:– Financing and public-/private sector roles– Role of policy/markets/standards


Thank you for your attentionrmt.hydropower.org

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