Issues at the Rural-Urban Fringe: Florida's Population Growth, 2004 ...

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Issues at the Rural-Urban Fringe: Florida's Population Growth, 2004 ...

FE567Issues at the Rural-Urban Fringe: Florida's PopulationGrowth, 2004-2010 1Rodney L. Clouser and Hank Cothran 2IntroductionFlorida's population growth has beenphenomenal over the last 100 years. In 1900, thestate's population was just under 529,000 people andby 2000 had increased to just less than 16 million.That represents a 30-fold increase in the last 100years. To better put this increase into perspectiveFlorida's population increase has roughly beenequivalent to “importing” the state of Nebraska's2000 population into Florida every decade for the last100 years. Between 2004 and 2010, Florida'spopulation is expected to increase from 17.5 millionto a projected 19.7 million, or 12.2 percent, for anaverage yearly increase of 366,000 people per year,or 1,000 people per day, through 2010.State population increases will impact andinfluence water and land allocation, state andcommunity infrastructure needs, and demands forlocal goods and services. Therefore, data presented inthis fact sheet can serve as a useful introduction ofissues related to population growth that might ariseover the next six years in Florida. The data willexplain where the state's growth will occur, but alsomay help identify where issues such as water and landcompetition, housing demand, consumer demand forgoods and services, urban sprawl, changes in ruraland farm land use, etc. will become increasinglyimportant. These specific issues are not addressed inthis fact sheet but left to the conjecture of the readerbased on the data presented.Population Growth History,2000-2003Many times the best predictor for the future iswhat has happened in the recent past. That may beespecially true related to Florida's population growth.State population growth in percentage terms forFlorida counties between 2000 and 2003 is shown inFigure 1. Some general trends evident on this map arethat about 20 percent of the state's counties (13)experienced growth of about 9.7 percent or higherover the three-year period. Eight of the fast growingcounties are located on the coast, a ninth (Clay) isadjacent to the St. Johns River, and the remainingfour counties are near the area known as the “I-4corridor”. Slow growth or no growth counties tendto be heavily concentrated in northern Florida (11 of1. This is EDIS document FE567, a publication of the Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Foodand Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. This document is one of a series entitled "Issues at the Rural-Urban Fringe". PublishedAugust 2005. Please visit the EDIS website at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu.2. Rodney L. Clouser, Professor, and Hank Cothran, Associate-In, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service,Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.The Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS) is an Equal Opportunity Institution authorized to provide research, educational information andother services only to individuals and institutions that function with non-discrimination with respect to race, creed, color, religion, age, disability, sex,sexual orientation, marital status, national origin, political opinions or affiliations. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cooperative Extension Service,University of Florida, IFAS, Florida A. & M. University Cooperative Extension Program, and Boards of County Commissioners Cooperating. LarryArrington, Dean


Issues at the Rural-Urban Fringe: Florida's Population Growth, 2004-2010 5Table 3. Florida's ten fastest-growing counties in percentagepopulation growth, 2004-2010.County% Population GrowthFlagler 32.7Osceola 27.5Collier 24.4Wakulla 24.3Sumter 24.1Walton 23.3St. Johns 23.0Lake 20.5Franklin 20.2Lee 18.6Source: Calculated from Florida Legislative Office ofEconomic and Demographic Research, March 2005.Table 4. Florida's ten slowest-growing counties inpercentage population growth, 2004-2010.County% Population GrowthGulf 5.7Putnam 4.9Holmes 4.7Madison 4.6Jackson 4.6Hamilton 4.2Gadsden 4.1Pinellas 3.9Jefferson 3.8Monroe 1.4Source: Calculated from Florida Legislative Office ofEconomic and Demographic Research, March 2005.

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