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Sub-replacement Fertility: Isthis an Issue for New Zealand?Wellington 2006Dr Natalie JacksonUniversity of Tasmania1


Population Ageing: 4 dimensions• Numerical Ageing– Increase in numbers of elderly (primarilycaused by increased life expectancy)• Structural ageing– Increase in proportions of elderly (primarilycaused by low/falling birth rates)**• Natural decline– More elderly than children ‣ ‣more deathsthan births• Absolute decline– Inability of replacement migration toreplace the ‘lost’ births and inc’d deaths2


Have you seen this man?3


Are they getting the message?!!4


The call• Is this you? You are acouple in a stablerelationship. You havehad your kids … Yourjob/s is/are secure andyour mortgage fairlyunder control .. Youmay even believe thatyou have already donefour bit for thiscountry’s population.• While you are stillyoung and fertile whynot think about havinganother child? A childfor your country .. Whynot play Two Up?for more informationwww.play2upnow.com.au 6


Other general proposals• Paid maternity/paternity leave– Institutionally supported– Superannuation Contributions whileon leave• Income Tax splitting• HECS payments• Most proposals ignore opportunity costs7


Government policies on fertility2005 (1996) - World% ofcountriesRaiseMaintainLowerNo int’vTOTAL(N)WORLD20(14)16(1040(42)24(34)194countriesMDCs50(33)17(8)0(2)33(56)48LDCs10(8)16(10)53(56)21(26)146http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2005/wpp2005.htm 8


Towards a critical analysis• High birth rates equated with high death rates(esp. infant deaths)– Declining infant mortality and declining birth ratesreinforce each other; remove need for high births• Reproductive efficiency– The work associated with reproducing the specieshas decreased, freeing women, their energy andresources for other forms of production• The reproductive revolution is one of thepillars of modernity– Can’t hold back the one while forging ahead with therest9


University and Vocational TeachersSize #57; Ageing #5 (E/E = 0.5)Age70+65-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-19MalesFemales19% 55+20 10 0 10 20Percentage at each ageE:E: 20-29: 55+ years 10


Managers and AdministratorsSize #37; Ageing #3 (E/E = 0.3)Age70+65-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-19MalesFemales20% 55+20 10 0 10 20Percentage at each ageE:E: 20-29: 55+ years 11


Social Welfare ProfessionalsSize #47; Ageing #11 (E/E = 0.9)Age70+65-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-19MalesFemales16% 55+20 10 0 10 20Percentage at each ageE:E: 20-29: 55+ years 12


TFR: Australia and New Zealand87651343210NZAustralia1866188619161926193219381944195019641970197619821988199420002006TFR


2004TFR: Maori and Aboriginals76514MaoriAboriginals4321019621965196819711974197719801983198619891992199519982001


1515-19 Years80706050403020100New ZealandAustralia196219671972Births per 1,000 women197719821987199219972002


1620-24 Years300250200150100500New ZealandAustralia196219671972Births per 1,000 women197719821987199219972002


1725-29 Years300250200150100500New ZealandAustralia196219671972Births per 1,000 women197719821987199219972002


1830-34 Years160140120100806040200New ZealandAustralia196219671972Births per 1,000 women197719821987199219972002


1935-39 Years80706050403020100New ZealandAustralia196219671972Births per 1,000 women197719821987199219972002


New ZealandAustralia2002199745-49/50 Years212.521.510.5019621967197219771982Births per 1,000 women19871992


Maori and Aboriginal ASFRs 200516014012010022806040200MaoriAboriginal15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-49Births per 1,000 women


Indigenous and Non-IndigenousASFRs 200523160140120100806040200MaoriAboriginalAustraliaNZ15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-49Births per 1,000 women


24Median Age (all confinements)33312927252321191715New ZealandAustralia19211926193119361941194619511956196119621962196219621962196219621962


15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-492001ASFRs Australia 1921-2005(or how to have a baby boom..)2525020015010050019211931194119511961197119811991Births per 1,000 women


ASFRs New Zealand 1962-2006(or how to have a baby boom..)15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4930025020015010050026192119311941195119611971198119912001Births per 1,000 women


Australia: Projected change byage: 2006-2016; 2006-2026400,000350,000300,000250,0002006-2016 (+2.25 mill)2006-2026 (+4.3 mill)200,000150,000100,00050,0000-50,000051015202530354045Age5055606570758085 +Source: ABS 2005 Series B(Australia) 27


Labour Market Entrants/Exits3.53.015-24 Yrs2.5Millions2.01.555-64 Yrs1.00.5Crossover 2018-190.020042006200820102012201420162018202020222024202620282030Source: ABS 2005 (Series A and B)Australia 28


Entry/Exit Crossovers by State2005NegativeTas.1.132010SA1.182012NSW1.262017Vic.1.32019QLD1.32022WA1.362020ACT1.54…NT1.87…29


One little Kiwi-Croatian-Australian30


There is more to populationageing than meets the eyeSource: unknown but much appreciated31


ThankyouNatalie.Jackson@utas.edu.au32

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