223753 BCSIA NL_FINAL WEB.pdf - Belfer Center for Science and ...

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223753 BCSIA NL_FINAL WEB.pdf - Belfer Center for Science and ...

On Tap at Belfer Center: Oil and WaterStudy Shows Oil Production Capacity Much Greater Than ExpectedOil production capacity is surging in theUnited States and several other countriesat such a fast pace that global oil output capacityis likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by2020—possibly prompting a plunge or even acollapse in oil prices.This was the conclusion reached by BelferCenter researcher Leonardo Maugeri followinghis field-by-field analysis of the world’smajor oil formations and exploration projects.Maugeri, a Roy Family Fellow with theBelfer Center’s Geopolitics of Energy Projectand former senior executive vice president ofthe Eni oil company in his native Italy,explained his findings in “Oil: The Next Revolution,”a paper released by the Belfer Centerover the summer.Maugeri’s findings have provoked significantinterest and questions from energy andenvironment leaders and media from aroundthe world. He is currently completing a paperresponding to questions raised.Contrary to some predictions that worldoil production has peaked or will soon doso, Maugeri projects that output should growfrom the current 93 million barrels per day to110 million barrels per day by 2020, thebiggest jump in any decade since the 1980s.What’s more, he says, this increase representsless than 40 percent of the new oil productionunder development globally. Theseincreases, Maugeri writes, are projected to begreatest in the United States,Canada, Venezuela, and Brazil.The Center for Strategic andInternational Studies in Washington,D.C. hosted an event torelease the study.Revolutionary Report: LeonardoMaugeri discusses findings from hisstudy “Oil: The Next Revolution” at a NewYork City Harvard Club event. The BelferCenter’s Meghan O’Sullivan (center)participated in the discussion.“Leonardo’s conclusions are not only startling,but his paper provides a transparentexplanation for how he reaches them—somethinglacking in many studies,” said MeghanL. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics ofEnergy Project. “His findings have majorimplications for geopolitics, suggestingimportant shifts in how countries interactand wield influence.” For more details, seehttp://belfercenter.org/maugeri.Center Team Advances Vital Research at Intersection of Water and EnergyBy Sharon WilkeTwo years ago, Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurtiand Laura Diaz Anadon,director and associate director of the BelferCenter’s Science, Technology, and Public Policyprogram, set the stage for the Center’senergy research team to zero in on the challengesfacing energy and the natural resourceessential to it in many countries around theworld—water.“Water is critical for energy and energy iscritical for water,” said Anadon, who directsthe Center’s Energy Technology InnovationPolicy research team. She and Narayanamurtidetermined that ETIP’s goal for the Water/Energy Nexus (WEN) project would be “toquantify challenges posed by the couplingbetween water and energy systems in keyareas around the world and to determinewhat technology, government structures, andpolicies can address these challenges.”With a team that has grown to five engineers,a political scientist, and an architect,ETIP is focusing its efforts on three geographicareas: the Middle East-North Africa(MENA) countries, China, and the UnitedStates. The two central issues for each of theseareas is the availability of sufficient water forvarious energy, industrial, and residentialneeds, and the environmental impacts ofusing that water.In the effort to obtain more water, onedilemma facing a number of countries is thetrade-off between desalination and waterreuse. Many countries in MENA, for example,use desalination as a way to increase the watersupply. A recent paper from the team foundthat it would makemore sense (economicallyand environmentally)for some countriesto increase their relianceon treated municipaland industrial water, amethod that has proveneffective and much less energy intensive thandesalination.In China, water resources are scarce in theNorth, where most energy development takesplace. The WEN team, working in Chinajointly with the Sustainability Science Program,is looking at quantifying the impact onwater availability of energy developmentplans and also the impact of different waterallocation structures at the central andprovincial government levels.In the United States, hydraulic fracturingfor natural gas extraction has presented anew set of challenges at the water/energynexus. In water scarce regions, the growingdemand for frac fluids is putting pressure onexisting water supplies. ETIP researchers areworking to assess the water-related impactsof hydraulic fracturing, assess the emergingtechnologies and drilling practices to mitigatethese impacts, and identify companybehaviors that encourage adoption of thesetechnologies. Additionally, the team hasinvestigated the regional water implicationsof alternative formulations of the RenewableFuel Standard.Making the Connections: The Water/Energy Nexus team (from left): Chao Zhang(standing); Laura Diaz-Anadon, Afreen Siddiqi, Meagan Mauter, Scott Moore(standing), and Arani Kajenthira. Not pictured: Consulting architect Jade Salhab,and alumni Sarah Jordaan and Erik Mielke.5


QTED describes you as a “wildly originalthinker [who] challenges us to look atclimate solutions that may seem daring,sometimes even shocking.” What are some ofyour favorite, daring ideas to reduce climatechange?My favorite idea is pedestrian: put a price oncarbon emissions to discourage use of theatmosphere as a free waste dump. This idea isat once commonplace and radical. A price onemissions such as a tax is admission that governmentdoes not know exactly which methodswill prove most effective in reducingemissions so the best way to make progress isto build the cost of emissions into pricesacross the economy and let firms and individualsfigure it out in a distributed way. Mostcarbon-related policy to date has focused onpromoting particular technologies such assolar on rooftops. While some of this has beenuseful, the net effect has been to spend verylarge amounts of money (the world nowspends more than $200 billion per year onclean energy) on things that are relatively costineffectiveas measured by their short-termability to restrain emissions.QYou gave a talk at Harvard recentlytitled “The Risks and Efficacy of SolarEngineering.” Solar engineering involvesinjecting a substance into the upper atmospherethat will reflect some sunlight backinto space in order to cool the earth. Whatare the main benefits of this method and dothe benefits outweigh the risks?6Q&A David KeithDavid Keith is Gordon McKay Professor of Applied Physics at Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences andProfessor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. The award-winning scientist, who was named one of TIME magazine’sHeroes of the Environment in 2009, has worked near the interface of climate science, energy technology, and publicpolicy for twenty years. He divides his time between Boston and Calgary, where he serves as president of CarbonEngineering—a start-up company developing industrial-scale technologies for capture of CO 2 from ambient air. Here,Keith answers questions about his research and ideas for reducing climate change using innovative and sometimes controversialmethods.The benefit is that solar geoengineering mayenable us to reduce the risk of climate changefrom emissions that have already occurred.While we will ultimately have to cut emissionsto nearly zero to stabilize the climate, “ultimately”is a long way off, and near-term emissionsreductions do very little to reducenear-term climate risks such as temperatureextremes that may cause crop losses whoseimpacts will fall on the most vulnerable populationsover the next half century. Solar geoengineeringoffers the prospect of materiallyreducing climate risk for current generationsand of slowing large-scale climatic change suchas the loss of Arctic sea ice. While it soundshyperbolic and promotional, there is literallyno other method we know to achieve this.The enormous power of solar geoengineering—theleverage that enables small lowcostinputs to create profound climatechanges—presents novel and serious risks. Thegreatest challenges are not technical but ratherthe development of effective governance. Solargeoengineering cannot be localized, so implementationsby one country will affect others inways that could—in the worst-case—be profoundlydamaging. We require governance systemsthat can manage near-term research in away that balances the benefits of knowledgeagainst risks, and manages decisions aboutdeployment in a way that is able to achievesome measure of democratic legitimacy in amultipolar world.QHow can you be confident that workingon solar geoengineering will not reducepopular and political will for reducinggreenhouse gas emissions?I can’t be. On the contrary, I think there is areal prospect that if solar geoengineering isfound to be effective it will reduce politicalwill to cut emissions compared to what itwould be otherwise. Current political will tocut emissions is low so that may not makethings materially worse. If one is optimistic,one might hope that the injection of this newtechnology into climate policy will energizethe topic, breaking the static trench warfarethat now characterizes much of the debateabout climate and perhaps producing a betteroutcome. But, that is a wish, not a prediction.David Keith on the summit of “The President” inYoho National Park, British Columbia, Canada.QWhy have humans failed so spectacularlyto curb greenhouse gas emissionsso far—and is there a no-turning-backdeadline regarding global warming?I don’t know. One answer may lie in the factthat language of environmental advocacy hasbecome increasingly technocratic. Calls foraction often stress quantitative measures andself-interest. We are urged to protect the naturalenvironments because of the “ecosystemservices” they yield. These arguments havemerit, but I suspect they obscure much ofwhat actually drives people’s choices. If we areprotecting a rain forest because it stores carbonor yields wonder drugs, then we shouldbe happy to cut down the forest if some carbonstorage machine or molecular biotech labcan better provide these services. The utilitarianbenefits of the natural world are real, butfor me they are a grossly insufficient measureof its value. While I may be an extreme, I thinkI am not alone, and I suspect that a moredirectly value-driven conversation about climatemight be more effective than the currentdebate.Our climate choices would be easy if wereally were facing an imminent existentialthreat. A true emergency justifies extrememeasures, a narrow focus on a single problemand suspension of democratic due process.Imagine how the world might collaborate ifwe discovered a massive asteroid inbound fora 2050 impact. But, this is not what we face.Claims that climate change threatens a similarlysharp catastrophe are a rhetorical deviceto avoid an honest debate about the trade-offsat the heart of climate policy and about thevalues that drive our choices.QOutside the office, you are an avid hikerand have adventured through the Canadianwilderness, the high Arctic, and theHimalayas. Have these experiences shapedyour approach to your work on the environmentand climate?I have been unusually lucky in getting achance to experience big wilderness, to go onmulti-week expeditionary trips away fromother people in places like the Canadian highArctic. This is certainly related to my work onexploring non-utilitarian justifications for climateaction, though I don’t think much aboutwork when I am outside.


SPOTLIGHTSusan HockfieldSusan Hockfield is the Marie Curie Visiting Professor at Harvard Kennedy School. After almost eight years as presidentof the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, she is spending a sabbatical year based at the Kennedy School’s Belfer Center.Susan Hockfield and the Magic of the LaboratoryBy James F. SmithWhile working toward a doctoral degreein anatomy at Georgetown University’sSchool of Medicine, Susan Hockfieldplunged into professional life in a neurobiologylab at the National Institutes of Health,working on the riddle of how pain signals getfrom the skin to the brain.A solitary scientific pursuit? Hardly, saysHockfield. She remembers being part of across-cutting team of experts, including neurophysiologists,pharmacologists, psychologistsand medical doctors.“I loved everything about working in thelab—the technology, the mental processes,the social dynamics,” Hockfield recalled. “Butthe thing I came to love most was the magicthat on a good day would happen at a labmeeting, where a group of very intelligentpeople, all deeply versed in their area of study,would together puzzle over someone’s problem.And out of that collaborative thinkingwould emerge a solution that no one wouldhave reached on his or her own.”Hockfield is spending a sabbatical year atHarvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center after anacclaimed almost eight-year stint as president ofthe Massachusetts Institute of Technology.She didn’t imagine a career in universityadministration.She was always fascinated by the science ofliving things; she got her first microscope inthe fifth grade. After her doctoral research atNIH and a postdoctoral year at the Universityof California at San Francisco, she was hiredby DNA pioneer James Watson to become aninvestigator at the Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory(not far from Chappaqua, New York,where she went to high school). In 1985 shejoined the faculty of Yale Medical School as aprofessor of neurobiology, and built a lab thatconducted complex brain research, focusingin part on a deadly form of brain cancer.She accepted a request to become dean ofthe Yale Graduate School of Arts and Sciencesin 1998 because she felt she could help gradstudents have more effective educationalexperiences. She planned to stay only a coupleof years.“What I discovered was that in academicleadership, that magic of collaborative thinkingis what the job is about—bringing peopletogether to puzzle through problems, to overcomeimpediments,” said Hockfield.She became provost of Yale, the chief academicand chief administrative officer, in2002, and then moved to MIT in December2004 as its first woman president, and the firstlife scientist to lead MIT.“The convergence of lifesciences and engineering,I think, is going to be thestory of the 21st century…”—Susan HockfieldHockfield brought along her belief in thepower of converging disciplines and cross-cuttingexpertise. In many ways it defined herleadership at MIT, just as it had at Yale.Consider these initiatives under her leadership:• The MIT Energy Initiative, or MITEI,deploys multidisciplinary research and educationacross the Institute, involving scientists,economists, architects, engineers, policythinkers and urban planners, leading to hundredsof sustainable energy projects.• Hockfield co-chairs President Obama’sAdvanced Manufacturing Partnership, whichbrings together government agencies, theacademy and industry to chart a path towardhigh-end manufacturing, and the educationalsystems to sustain it at the boundary ofpolicy and science.• She pushed the frontier of education withedX, the effort to make interactive on-lineeducation accessible and practical for studentsacross the world. Hockfield and HarvardPresident Drew Faust jointly launchededX last year.But Hockfield’s leadership in the convergenceof life sciences and engineering—anoutgrowth of her early lab days—may defineher principal contribution to education andAmerican competitiveness.“The convergence of life sciences and engineering,I think, is going to be the story of the21st century, much as the convergence of thephysical sciences and engineering was the storyof the 20th century,” she said in an interview.During the early 20th century, “physicistsdecoded the fundamental elements of thephysical universe. They were essentiallyunderstanding the parts list of the physicalworld—the structure of atoms, how electronstravel,” she said. Engineers seized this ‘partslist’, and began to experiment with how tomake them useful.By the 1950s, scientists including JamesWatson were elucidating the structure of DNA,and “the biological sciences began to assemblea parts list for the biological universe. Andengineers, in a very similar way, as they saw the‘parts list’ evolving, picked up those parts andincorporated them into applications.”The obvious applications are in biomedicine,booming all around the Boston area,including on the MIT campus in KendallSquare. “But the applications extend wellbeyond that. A group of biologically orientedMIT engineers have demonstrated that theycan design viruses that make batteries andmake solar cells, combining biologicalapproaches with engineering approaches.”At MIT, Hockfield put that transformationto work. She led initiatives including the RagonInstitute, which is working on an AIDS vaccine;the Broad Institute, which is usinggenomics and biological sciences to understandand treat disease; and the Koch Institute,which combines biological research with engineeringtechnology to revolutionize the diagnosisand treatment of cancer.Any one of those alone would be a worthylegacy. Playing a motivating role in all threeearns, well, a sabbatical.This year at the Kennedy School and theBelfer Center gives the soft-spoken Hockfieldsome breathing space, and more time to get toher beloved Boston Symphony Orchestra’sconcerts. (She is a BSO overseer). “I am doingmore listening than speaking,” she said. “Theluxury for me to be able to stay at a seminarand hear a speaker for the entire hour is justsheer delight.”So what will her focus be going forward?She’s not yet ready to choose. She does allowthat “I am quite interested in academic leadership,and the challenges of developing effectiveleadership in the academy.”And it’s no surprise that her vision of leadershipcombines individual excellence withcollaboration and collegiality. “One of theimportant roles of an academic leader is to recognizecommon themes, and create conditionswhere people’s own ideas and ambitions canbe advanced beyond what they could do ontheir own.”7


These pages feature a few of the talented women and men who are currentBELFERandCformer faculty, fellows, staff, and associates of the Belfer Center whose work ismaking significant contributions in public and private sectors around the world.Faculty, Fellows, Staff,Saradzhyan Brings Insight, Experience to Center’s U.S.-Russian ResearchSimon Saradzhyan is a Belfer Center Fellow By Dominic ContrerasThe English reporter and columnist A.N. Wilson once mused that, “If you imagine writing 1,000 words aday, which most journalists do, that would be a very long book.” Not only would it be a long book, it wouldlikely cover a multitude of subjects, themes, and ideas.If Simon Saradzhyan, current fellow and former Russian journalist, were to write it, it would encompasseverything from state and local politics in Russia and the Caucasus to issues of international security, nuclearterrorism, and diplomacy.Between 1993 and 1999, Saradzhyan worked as a journalist, then as editor of the Moscow Times. Writingin both his native Russian and English, he contributed scores of articles and analysis for that and other publications,including the Times of London, Defense News, and Space News.“As my portfolio expanded, I realized I had accumulated enough knowledge, experience, and skills to lookbeyond current headlines,” Saradzhyan said, “and I began looking for opportunities where I could translatethat accumulated knowledge into some kind of product.”Simon SaradzhyanIn 2000, Saradzhyan enrolled at Harvard Kennedy School where his professors included the Belfer Center’sGraham Allison, Ashton Carter, and the late Ernest May. Being at the Kennedy School “immenselyenhanced my understanding of how to approach a problem and how to propose solutions,” Saradzhyan said.After graduating in 2002 with a master’s in public administration, Saradzhyan used his newly sharpened analytic skills as a consultant withthe World Bank and United Nations, focusing on the North Caucasus. In 2008, at the invitation of Allison, Saradzhyan returned to the KennedySchool, where he joined the Belfer Center as a research fellow.At the Center, Saradzhyan played a central role in one of the Center’s landmark projects, the 2011 “U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment ofNuclear Terrorism,” which brought together senior Russian and U.S. intelligence and military officials to assess the ongoing threat of nuclear terrorism,a project he proposed. A follow-up paper is expected sometime next year.Though no longer a full-time journalist, Saradzhyan continues to write prolifically. He regularly pens opinion and analyses pieces for bothforeign and domestic publications and is co-writing a book chapter on Sino-Russian relations.Asked to reflect on what kind of an impact institutes like the Belfer Center have on policy, Saradzhyan said that they have the “resources, intellectualfire-power, and freedom to propose ideas that impact trends that are of vital importance to nations and to the international communityas a whole.”Renshon Investigates Impact of Status Concerns on States and IndividualsJonathan Renshon is a former research fellow with the International Security Program By Stefanie LeFor Jonathan Renshon, interest in political psychology began at a young age from the influence of hisfather, Stanley Renshon, a political psychologist and professor of political science at The City Universityof New York.“[My work] is close to the area he works in, so I grew up around a lot of this stuff,” said Renshon,who recently left the Belfer Center for a post-doctoral fellowship at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey,California.Renshon’s work takes a close look at the psychology of judgment and decision-making on an experimentallevel. “I’m interested, in particular, in how status concerns affect not just states but individual leaders aswell,” said Renshon, whose undergraduate and graduate studies at Wesleyan University and the LondonSchool of Economics, respectively, steered him toward a more empirical approach to political psychology.Renshon’s work focuses on three different facets: the centerpiece—a quantitative study of internationalpolitics and status concerns; the empirical aspect—analyzing cases during WWI to observe how status concernsaffected decision-making in the historical record; and the experimental aspect, where Renshon was ableJonathan Renshonto have members of the Senior Executive Fellow Program at HKS serve as his subjects.“This is a kind of elite executive education program. So unlike a lot of experimental studies of decision-making and of leadership, I had realpolitical and military leaders to examine,” said Renshon.“What I found is that the threat of losing status does impact the psychology of judgment and decision-making,” said Renshon. “It leads to agreater tendency to take risks and escalate in bargaining situations, but that having power—feeling powerful—actually buffers against that.”“For psychologists, this is an interesting result because power has differential effects depending on how you’re looking at it and what kind ofoutcome you’re looking at,” said Renshon. “In a lot of cases, it leads to much worse decision-making, and this is an interesting example of poweractually greatly helping decision-making, buffering against these really detrimental effects of the social threat of losing status.”In the fall of 2013, Renshon will move to the University of Wisconsin, Madison, where he will be the Thrice Faculty Scholar and Assistant Professorof Political Science.8


Center Programs and Projects: International Security Program; Science, Technology, and Public Policy;Environment and Natural Resources Program; Energy Technology Innovation Policy; Managing the Atom; Science,Technology, and Globalization Project; Broadmoor Project; Harvard Project on International Climateand AlumsAgreements; Initiative on Religion in International Affairs; Agricultural Innovation in Africa; U.S.-Russia Initiativeto Prevent Nuclear Terrorism; Middle East Initiative; Future of Diplomacy Project; India and South Asia Pro-ENTERBelfergram; Information and Communications Technology and Public Policy; Geopolitics of EnergyWhy a Fellowship at the Belfer Center?During an event in September to inform National Defense University(NDU) International Fellows about research taking place at theBelfer Center, one NDU participant asked the panelists— all Center fellows—whythey chose a fellowship at the Belfer Center in Cambridgerather than at a research center in Washington, D.C.Noora Lori, research fellow with the International Security Program“As a researcher, the Belfer Center provides me with something that isdistinct from working in either a strictly academic or government institution—thefreedom and resources of one of the world’s top academicinstitutions with a direct line to key policymakers. In addition to bringingworld leaders to campus frequently, the Kennedy School offers somany different kinds of programs to engage with. For me, that includesworking with fellows in the International Security Program, where I ambased, but also the Carr Center for Human Rights, and the Middle EastInitiative, which enables me to expand the breadth of my research.”Vivek Mohan, research fellow with the Science, Technology, Public PolicyProgram and Information and Communications Technology andPublic Policy Project“I joined the Belfer Center from Microsoft’s DC office, where I wasworking as an attorney on cybersecurity policy. A professor fromColumbia originally pointed me to the Belfer Center, and when Ireceived a call inviting me to apply for a fellowship, I jumped at theopportunity. Working in D.C. leads to a deep appreciation of theimportance of “being there” to impact policy, but the caliber of theresearch community at the Belfer Center means that the brightest starsin cyber inevitably pass through Cambridge. Here, I’ve had the opportunityto zoom out and understand the issues from a high level, allwhile connecting with the thought leaders and policymakers that aremaking these decisions every day.”Simon Saradzhyan, fellow with the Belfer Center“I chose to apply for a fellowship at the Belfer Center not only becauseit’s a top university-affiliated think tank, but also because it employssome of America’s finest scholars of the U.S.-Russian relations. Andthese scholars do not just study nuances of this complex relationship,but they also craft concrete recommendations on how to advance it andthen engage policymakers to implement them. Not a month goes byPolicy and Practice: Belfer Center Executive Director for Research Kevin Ryan(standing) welcomes National Defense University (NDU) International Fellows andintroduces them to a panel of Belfer Center fellows. Center panelists included (leftto right) Noora Lori, Vivek Mohan, Simon Saradzhyan, and William Tobey.without a senior policymaker visiting the Belfer Center to share his orher views, and also to learn from the faculty and staff.”William Tobey, senior fellow with the Belfer Center“I was happy to return to the Kennedy School, where I had received anMPP degree 25 years earlier. Harvard, in general, and the Belfer Center,in particular, are places where there are lots of very smart peoplewith interesting ideas. We are also fortunate to have a constant streamof fascinating visitors. One day last year, I believe we hosted four of theU.S. Combatant Commanders, all for separate events. I doubt thathappens very often outside the Pentagon. As a practitioner, I am particularlyattracted by the Belfer Center’s mission of providing policyrelevantinformation at the intersection between science and nationalsecurity. In short, the Belfer Center is a great place to think and writeabout the practical application of ideas to address important problemsin national security.”Sletteland Studies Influence of Narratives on Political Discourse By Stefanie LeAnja Sletteland is a Ph.D. candidate in human geography from the University of Oslo. Her research dealswith how the diverging narratives of the Israel-Palestine conflict play out in and shape political discourse.“There are many perspectives on what the Israel-Palestine conflict is really about,” Sletteland says, “butpeople tend to avoid dealing with perceptions counter to their own. What really matters are the narratives ofthe actors involved, since they’re the ones making the decisions.”Sletteland says she started thinking about this research topic when she was working as a strategic communicationsadvisor in Norway. “From that job I often experienced how difficult it is to change someone’sopinion if they have already made up their mind. Generally, instead of trying to convince people that they’rewrong, you have to change the conversation so that the issue appears in a different light.”In order to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, Sletteland argues that the discourse in the internationalcommunity needs to change. “It is widely recognized that Israelis and Palestinians interpret the situation differently.What is less acknowledged is how their international alliances contribute to widening the distancebetween them. Both parties have strong international support for their claims. The problem is that thoseclaims are warranted in mutually exclusive narratives.”Anja Sletteland9


M A R T H A S T E W A R TBELFEREconomic Security: Robert B. Zoellick, former president of the WorldBank and senior fellow at the Belfer Center, speaks about the relationshipbetween economics and security in American foreign policy at the John F.Kennedy Jr. Forum. Zoellick, who was the 11th president of the WorldBank until July 2012, served in President Bush’s cabinet as U.S. traderepresentative, worked in both the Treasury and State departments, andwas the lead U.S. official tasked with facilitating German reunification.He is a graduate of the Harvard Law School and the Kennedy Schoolof Government.Military Brain Power: General James Cartwright, Belfer Center seniorfellow and former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, discussesnational security and military issues at a Belfer Center director’s seminar.Cartwright is widely respected as one of the boldest and most creativethinkers of his generation of American military leaders. He wascommissioned a second lieutenant in the Marine Corps in November1971 and rose to eventually become the eighth vice chairman of the JointChiefs of Staff, the nation’s second highest ranking military officer.Just the Facts: Gillian Tett, markets and financecommentator for the Financial Times, discusseswith Belfer Center faculty and fellows the needfor journalists and academics to rely less onpreconceptions and more on objective analysiswhen assessing the dangers of the financialworld. Tett detailed these ideas in a 2010 paper,for which she received several honors,including UK Speechwriters’ Guild BusinessCommunicator of the Year 2012. In 2011, shewas awarded The British Academy President’sMedal 2011 for service to the cause of thehumanities and social sciences.In a November 1 Financial Times article,Tett argued that banking may be losing someof its allure for the best and brightest students,who may instead begin to lean toward otherfields such as manufacturing or medicine,possibly creating “a place where finance finallystarts to look more ‘normal,’ compared toeverything else.”Korean Questions: TheHonorable Y.J. Choi,Republic of Koreaambassador to the UnitedStates, discusses theshifting nature of theU.S.- Korea alliance frommilitary to a comprehensiverelationship-basedeconomic affiliation. He alsoobserved that regionalmilitary conflict is unlikelydue to high levels ofeconomic cooperation anddependency. Choi hasserved in the Ministry ofForeign Affairs in SouthKorea since 1972, where hehas held many ambassadorships, including ambassador to the U.N. He has also served asassistant secretary-general for Peacekeeping Operations at the United Nations.Innovative Africa: ChimwemweChamdimba, policy andprogram officer with the AfricanUnion’s high-level NewPartnership for Africa’sDevelopment Agency (NEPAD),speaks to a group of KennedySchool students and facultyabout her work with hostprofessor Calestous Juma,founder of the African Centre forTechnology Studies, on “Science,Technology, and Innovation forAfrica’s Economic Development:Revising the Strategy.” She wasjoined in the discussion by hercolleague Professor AggreyAmbali, director of policyalignment and programdevelopment directorate andhead of NEPAD’s Office ofScience and Technology.Russia Today: Andrei Kokoshin, dean of faculty of world politics at Moscow State University,delivers the Corliss Lamont Lecture, providing a Russian perspective on the current dynamicchanges in the global political environment. Kokoshin, former secretary of the RussianSecurity Council, former chairman of the state Duma Committee, and member of the RussianSecurity Council’s Scientific Council, founded the Institute of International Security Problemsat the Russian Academy of Sciences where he now serves as director.10


SPEAKERSSaudi Uncertainty: Karen Elliot House, former Belfer Center senior fellow andformer publisher of the Wall Street Journal, speaks during a special board ofdirectors’ lunch about her new book, On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past, Religion,Fault Lines—and Future. She explained how Saudi Arabia is not immune from theturmoil and uncertainty engulfing neighboring nations and may be near its own“crisis point.” Harvard’s James Sebenius is next to House.T O M F I T Z S I M M O N SU.S. in the Midst:Michèle Flournoy,former undersecretaryof defense in theObama administrationand now senior fellowwith the Belfer Center,listens to a questionfrom Nicholas Burns,moderator of a JFK Jr.Forum titled “TheMiddle East: U.S. andIsraeli Perspectives.”Flournoy is co-founder of the non-partisan think tank Center for New AmericanSecurity, and while undersecretary acted as the principal adviser to the secretary ofdefense in the formulation of national security and defense policy. She was joined inthe October Forum event by Amos Yadlin, Tzipi Livni, and Stephen Hadley.Seeing as a Saudi: Nawaf Obaid, a visiting fellow with the Belfer Center, speaksto faculty and fellows at a Center seminar titled “Saudi Perspective on the MiddleEast: the View from Riyadh.” Obaid is a senior fellow at King Faisal Center forResearch & Islamic Studies as well as a private counselor to Prince Turki AlFaisal. Tad Oelstrom, who directs the Kennedy School’s National SecurityFellows program, is also pictured.Iran, Today and Tomorrow: Abbas Maleki, a senior associate with the InternationalSecurity Program and former Iranian diplomat, discusses the future of Iranian foreignpolicy at a Belfer Center seminar. Between 1988 and 1998, Maleki served as deputyforeign minister for Iran and was involved in the negotiations that ended the 10-yearIran-Iraq War. Maleki is currently the Robert Wilhelm Fellow at MIT’s Center forInternational Studies and an associate professor of energy policy at Sharif Universityof Technology, Tehran.Israel-Iran Quandary: Major General Ido Nehushtan, former commander in chiefof the Israeli Air Force, speaks at a Belfer Center lunch about threats facing Israel,including Iran’s nuclear program. In a 2008 paper for the Jerusalem Center forPublic Policy, Nehushtan wrote that the three primary generators of Middle Eastradicalism and extremism are Iran’s “Shia Crescent,” the Muslim Brotherhood, andthe global jihad.Nuclear Security Guard: Gary Samore, White House coordinator for arms control andweapons of mass destruction, proliferation, and terrorism, discusses the securityissues and challenges facing the country with Belfer Center International SecurityProgram (ISP) Director Steven Miller (left) and others at a directors’ lunch. Samore, aformer fellow with the Center’s ISP, is responsible for directing the effort to carry outPresident Obama’s goal of securing “all vulnerable nuclear material around the worldwithin four years.” He played a lead role in organizing the first Nuclear SecuritySummit that brought nearly 50 heads of state to Washington, D.C. in 2010.11


NEWSMAKERSInternational Security • Environment and NaturalR. Nicholas Burns, professor of thepractice of diplomacy and internationalpolitics, was inducted intothe American Academy of Arts andSciences in October 2012. Foundedin 1780, the American Academy is an independentresearch center and one of the nation’soldest and most prestigious learned societies.Paula Dobriansky, Belfer Centersenior fellow, received the prestigiousForeign Policy AssociationMedal, which is awarded annuallyby the Foreign Policy Association(FPA) to leading practitioners and academicswho work in the field of U.S. foreign policy.The FPA was founded in 1918 to promote abroad public understanding of American foreignpolicy and both the challenges andopportunities that confront the nation abroad.Evelyn Hsieh, former faculty andcommunications assistant at theBelfer Center, is now a speechwriterfor White House SeniorAdvisor Valerie Jarrett. Prior tothat, she was a speechwriter at the Departmentof Energy, writing primarily for DeputySecretary Daniel Poneman, former Centerfellow. Before that, she was a White Housespeechwriting intern.Azeem Ibrahim, former InternationalSecurity Program researchfellow (2008–2010), has foundedthe Scotland Institute, where heserves as executive chairman. TheScotland Institute aims to conduct high-qualityresearch to find innovative ways of developinga sustainable, competitive economy wherewealth is fairly distributed and issues of socialexclusion and deprivation can be tackled.Calestous Juma, director of theScience, Technology, and GlobalizationProject, and principalinvestigator for the AgriculturalInnovation in Africa project, hasbeen appointed co-chair of the African UnionHigh Level Panel on Science, Technology, andInnovation, which will guide the AU onreviewing Africa’s Science and TechnologyConsolidated Plan of Action. Juma is also therecipient of a prestigious 50th anniversary fellowshipfrom the University of Sussex.Juliette Kayyem, lecturer in publicpolicy and member of the BelferCenter Board of Directors, hasbeen appointed to the InternationalCentre for Sport Security(ICSS) advisory board, which brings togetherforemost experts in security to provide training,research, and tailored consultancy, facilitatingthe advancement and sharing ofknowledge in sport security.Center Welcomes New Faculty,Senior Fellows, and AssociatesThe Belfer Center is pleased to welcome new faculty members and senior fellows this year. Theybring breadth and depth in experience and expertise to the Center, with backgrounds ranging fromgeoengineering and cyber warfare to international financial crises. Their arrival brings a newdimension of thoughtful discussion, research, and teaching to the Belfer Center community.James CartwrightGeneral JamesCartwright, formervice chairman of theJoint Chiefs of Staff,will work with BelferCenter colleagues onnational security policyissues. Cartwrightbrings over 40 yearsof service in the Marines, hands-on experience,and innovative thinking to theBelfer Center where he will join the cyberand China working groups. A leadingthinker on cyber warfare, Cartwright willassist the cyber group in exploring ways toincorporate cyber issues and security policy.He will also co-chair the China workinggroup with Lawrence Summers andGraham Allison.Dara Kay CohenDara Kay Cohen hasjoined the HarvardKennedy School andBelfer Center asassistant professor ofpublic policy with aresearch focus oncivil war and violenceduring conflict, andgender and international relations.Cohen’s current book project examinesthe variation in use of sexual violenceduring recent civil conflicts, includingSierra Leone, East Timor, and El Salvador,where she interviewed numerous excombatantsand new combatants. Herwork has appeared in several publications,including a piece co-authored inForeign Affairs titled “Rape ReportingDuring War,” on how researchers andpoliticians get and present their numbersto the public.Michèle A. FlournoyMichèle Flournoyhas joined the BelferCenter as a seniorfellow after steppingdown from her positionas U.S. undersecretary of defensefor policy. As a nonresidentsenior fellow,Flournoy will visit HKS several timesa semester to work with faculty, fellows,and students on international securitypolicy matters. Flournoy was a researchfellow with the Belfer Center’s InternationalSecurity Program from 1989–’93with a focus on nuclear proliferation anddefense policy issues. In 2007, she cofoundedthe Center for a New AmericanSecurity with Kurt Campbell, anotherBelfer Center alumnus.Susan J. HockfieldSusan J. Hockfield,president of theMassachusetts Instituteof Technology(MIT) from2004–2012, hasjoined the BelferCenter and HKS asthe Marie Curie VisitingProfessor for the 2012–’13 academicyear. Hockfield will contribute to theBelfer Center’s work on science and technologypolicy and sustainable energypractices. While she will not be teachingany classes at HKS, Hockfield will maintainan office on campus and attendBelfer Center and HKS events. She alsocontinues to hold a faculty appointmentas professor of neuroscience at MIT.12


Resources • Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Diplomacy and International PoliticsDavid IgnatiusDavid Ignatius,author and foreignaffairs columnist forthe Washington Post,has joined the BelferCenter as a senior fellowwith the Futureof Diplomacy Project.Ignatius was previouslya Center Fisher Family Fellow anda visiting faculty member. He observedand assessed the Belfer Center’s 2010 simulationgame of the evolution of the Iraniannuclear crisis. In addition tojournalistic work covering the MiddleEast, global politics, and internationalaffairs, Ignatius has written several successfulnovels.David KeithDavid Keith hascome to the BelferCenter with a focuson geoengineering—the deliberate largescalemanipulation ofthe Earth’s climatethat might be used tooffset the climaterisks caused by greenhouse gas emissions—and works to improve understandingof options for governance of geoengineering.Keith, who is the Gordon McKayProfessor of Applied Physics at Harvard’sSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences(SEAS), currently divides his timebetween Cambridge and Calgary, Canada.Mike MurphyMike Murphy,Republican politicalconsultant, has joinedthe Belfer Center as asenior fellow. He hashandled strategy andadvertising for morethan 26 successfulgubernatorial andSenatorial campaigns. Murphy’s mostrecent work includes assisting with theCenter’s poll of Ohio and Florida voters toascertain their interest in global affairsleading up to the election. As a nonresidentsenior fellow, he is a frequentvisitor to the Center and earlier this yeardiscussed politics and the economy at aCenter-sponsored event with DirectorGraham Allison and International Councilmember Paul Volcker.Carmen M. ReinhartThe internationalfinance expert CarmenReinhart joinedthe Kennedy Schoolin July as Minos A.Zombanakis Professorof the InternationalFinancialSystem. Reinhart waspreviously the Dennis WeatherstoneSenior Fellow at the Peterson Institute forInternational Economics and professor ofeconomics and director of the Center forInternational Economics at the Universityof Maryland. She co-wrote, with HarvardProfessor Kenneth Rogoff, the best-sellingbook This Time is Different: Eight Centuriesof Financial Folly. Their work examinedmore than a dozen financial crises inboth developed and developing countries.Robert B. ZoellickRobert B. Zoellickjoined the BelferCenter as a seniorfellow in July 2012,at the end of his fiveyearterm as 11thpresident of theWorld Bank. Sincejoining the BelferCenter, Zoellick has delivered an addressat the JFK Jr. Forum titled “Economics &Security in American Foreign Policy:Back to the Future?” Zoellick was aresearch fellow with the Center’s InternationalSecurity Program from 1999–2000,focusing on key themes of American foreignpolicy in the 20th century throughthe experiences of secretaries of state.Zoellick concurrently holds a distinguishedvisiting fellowship at the PetersonInstitute for International Economics inWashington, D.C.Jonas Meckling, former researchfellow with the Belfer Center’sGeopolitics of Energy Project andEnergy Technology InnovationPolicy (ETIP) research group, hasbeen named senior advisor to the Germangovernment on Transatlantic Cooperation onEnergy and Climate Change.Joseph S. Nye, John Ruggie, andStephen M. Walt have all beenranked as influential internationalrelations scholars by the College ofWilliam and Mary’s Institute forthe Theory and Practice of InternationalRelations. The Institute’sTeaching, Research, and InternationalPolicy (TRIP) report rankedscholars who have produced thebest work and had the greatestinfluence in the IR field in the last20 years. Harvard Kennedy Schoolwas ranked #1 as the best place topursue a policy career in internationalrelations.Timothy Sandole is the first CampusWikipedian and an associate atthe Belfer Center. His primary taskis to author and edit internationalsecurity-related Wikipedia articleswith the goal of improving their scholasticcontent and accuracy. He also leads seminarsfor the HKS community on various Wikipediaediting methods.Carola Weil, former Belfer CenterInternational Security Programfellow, has been named dean ofAmerican University’s new Schoolof Professional Extended Studies.Sharon K. Weiner, associate professorat American University’sSchool of International Service,has won the National Academy ofPublic Administration’s 2012Louis Brownlow Book Award for her bookOur Own Worst Enemy? Institutional Interestsand the Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsExpertise. The book was published in 2011 aspart of the Belfer Center Studies in InternationalSecurity book series.Ali Wyne, former Belfer Centerresearch assistant, has beenselected for the “Top 99 Under 33”list of foreign policy leaders byThe Diplomatic Courier. Wyne isincluded in the “Influencers” category, whichincludes people who help mobilize the foreignpolicy community with bold new ideas.13


HOT OFFTHE PRESSESZion’s Dilemmas: How Israel MakesNational Security PolicyBy Charles D. Freilich, Senior Fellow,International Security ProgramCornell Studies in Security AffairsCornell University Press (November 2012)In Zion’s Dilemmas, a formerdeputy national securityadviser to the State of Israeldetails the history and, inmany cases, the chronic inadequaciesin the making ofIsraeli national security policy.The author uses hisinsider understanding and substantial archivaland interview research to describe how Israelhas made strategic decisions and to present afirst-of-its-kind model of national securitydecision-making in Israel. The book concludeswith cogent and timely recommendationsfor reform.“[E]ssential reading for all interested inIsraeli statecraft . . . of profoundsignificance for the comparative studyof national security policies.”“. . . Synthesizing unusual personal knowledgewith theoretical originality, Charles D. Freilichidentifies and shows five main pathologies ofIsraeli security decision-making in seven casestudies of critical Israeli choices. On this basisa series of important improvement proposalsare developed. Zion’s Dilemmas is essentialreading for all interested in Israeli statecraft,and also of profound significance for the comparativestudy of national security policies.”—Yehezkel Dror, author of Israeli Statecraft:National Security Challenges and ResponsesContaining Iran: Strategies for Addressingthe Iranian Nuclear ChallengeBy Robert J. Reardon, Research Fellow,International Security Program/Project onManaging the AtomRAND Corporation (September 2012)This study assesses currentU.S. policy options on theIranian nuclear question. Itsuggests that U.S. goals canbe met through patient andforward-looking policymaking.Specifically, the UnitedStates can begin to lay thegroundwork for an effective containmentpolicy while continuing efforts to forestallIranian weaponization. A successful containmentpolicy will promote long-term positive14political change in Iran while avoiding counterproductiveprovocation.Confront and Conceal: Obama’sSecret Wars and Surprising Use ofAmerican PowerBy David E. Sanger, Senior Fellow, BelferCenter for Science and International AffairsRandom House (June 2012)Inside the White HouseSituation Room, the newlyelected Barack Obamaimmerses himself in thedetails of a remark able newAmerican capability tolaunch cyberwar againstIran—and escalates covertoperations to delay the day when the mullahscould obtain a nuclear weapon. Over the nextthree years, Obama accelerates drone attacksas an alter native to putting troops on theground in Pakistan, and becomes increasinglyreliant on the Special Forces, whose huntingof al-Qaeda illuminates the path out of anunwin nable war in Afghanistan.Confront and Conceal provides readerswith a picture of an administration that cameto office with the world on fire. It takes theminto the Situation Room debate over how toundermine Iran’s program while simultaneouslytrying to prevent Israel from taking militaryaction that could plunge the region intoanother war. It dissects how the bin Ladenraid worsened the dysfunctional relationshipwith Pakistan. And it traces how Obama’searly idealism about fighting “a war of necessity”in Afghanistan quickly turned to fatigueand frustration. Yet the president has also pivotedAmerican foreign policy away from theattritional wars of the past decade, attemptingto preserve America’s influence with a lighter,defter touch—all while focusing on a new eraof diplomacy in Asia and reconfiguringAmerica’s role during a time of economic turmoiland austerity.“[A] timely, gripping read that offersinsights into some of the mostsurprising, most closely guardeddimensions of the Obama presidency.”“The book is a timely, gripping read that offersinsights into some of the most surprising, mostclosely guarded dimensions of the Obamapresidency. . . . Confront and Conceal is ajam-packed with news, gripping anecdotes,stories of triumph, and stories of hubris.”—David Rothkopf, Foreign PolicyCompiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPPLiberating Kosovo: Coercive Diplomacyand U.S. InterventionBy David L. Phillips, Former Non-ResidentFellow, Future of Diplomacy ProjectBelfer Center Studies in InternationalSecurityMIT Press (September 2012)In Liberating Kosovo, DavidPhillips offers a compellingaccount of the negotiationsand military actions that culminatedin Kosovo’s independence.Drawing on hisown participation in thediplomatic process and interviewswith leading participants, Phillipschronicles Slobodan Milosevic’s rise to power,the sufferings of the Kosovars, and the eventsthat led to the disintegration of Yugoslavia. Heanalyzes how NATO, the United Nations, andthe United States employed diplomacy, aerialbombing, and peacekeeping forces to set inmotion the process that led to independencefor Kosovo. He also offers important insightsinto a critical issue in contemporary internationalpolitics: how and when the UnitedStates, other nations, and NGOs should act toprevent ethnic cleansing and severe humanrightsabuses.We Shall Not Be Moved: Rebuilding Homein the Wake of KatrinaBy Tom Wooten, Former Research Fellow,Broadmoor Project: New OrleansBeacon Press (August 2012)As floodwaters drained inthe weeks following HurricaneKatrina, New Orleansresidents came to a difficultrealization. Their city wasabout to undertake thelargest disaster recovery inAmerican history, yet theyfaced a profound leadership vacuum: membersof every tier of government, from themunicipal to the federal level, had fallendown on the job. We Shall Not Be Moved tellsthe absorbing story of the community leaderswho stepped into this void to rebuild the citythey loved.“Mr. Wooten meticulously tracks the work ofcivic groups in five parts of New Orleans asthey labored to prove that their neighborhoodswere worth saving, underscoring the importanceof fostering such groups long before acatastrophe hits.”—Carla Main, Wall Street Journal


Center’s Cyber Efforts Cross Disciplines and SchoolsThe challenge of cybersecurity has risen tothe top of the nation’s agenda. In 2010,in collaboration with MIT and with fundingfrom the U.S. Department of Defense, theBelfer Center’s Science, Technology, andPublic Policy program launched its “Explorationsin Cyber International Relations”(ECIR) initiative.Touching as it does the disciplines oflaw, organization strategy, engineering, internationalrelations, and public policy, thechallenge of cybersecurity requires a crossdisciplinaryapproach and cross-trainedresearchers. Professor Venkatesh (Venky)Narayanamurti, co-principal investigator ofthe ECIR initiative, brought ECIR under theumbrella of the Belfer Center’s Informationand Communication Technology and PublicPolicy project (ICTPP), where he has fosteredcollaboration crossing schools and disciplines—mostnotably with HKS professorsJoseph Nye and Jonathan Zittrain, HLS professorJack Goldsmith, and Harvard’s CTOand SEAS professor Jim Waldo.This effort to build linkages is best representedby the four ICTPP Fellows whose workis supported by ECIR and by its leadershipteam. Lucas Kello, who is trained as a politicalscientist and is a Belfer Center InternationalSecurity Program Fellow, melds thedisciplines of international security andcyber. Vivek Mohan, who is trained as anattorney, is collaborating with the BerkmanCenter for Internet Policy. Aadya Shukla,who is trained as a computer scientist, is collaboratingwith MIT in the policy arena. RyanEllis specializes in infrastructure issues andcyber, and is collaborating with HKS centersand projects focused on infrastructure policyand regulation.Cyber Commander: General Keith B. Alexander (left),director of the National Security Agency, discussescyber-security in the Internet age with the BelferCenter’s cyber working group, including ZacharyTumin (center) and Joseph S. Nye (right). FormerlyArmy deputy chief of staff for Intelligence, Alexanderis currently in charge of protecting the U.S. militaryfrom cyber attacks.As faculty chair and director, Narayanamurtiexemplifies this same cross-boundaryapproach, as he serves to both Harvard’sSchool of Engineering and Applied Sciences(SEAS) and HKS, bringing the disciplines ofengineering and policy to bear on a range ofcomplex problems, among them cybersecurity.Zach Tumin, Harvard’s ECIR programmanager, trained at the Kennedy School—which gives ICTPP a head start on melding allthese disciplines with a strong focus on strategicmanagement.Examples of collaboration include VivekMohan’s work with Goldsmith and Berkmanstaff on papers, the production of a cyber wiki,and development of model cyber course modules.Following former Center ExecutiveDirector Eric Rosenbach’s successful 2010 J-Term course on cybersecurity (with RichardClarke), in 2012 Goldsmith offered HKS’sfirst full-semester cybersecurity course,assisted by ICTPP fellows. In 2013, Waldo willteach a new HKS J-Term cybersecurity course,“Technology, Security, and Conflict in theCyber Age.”An MIT/Harvard workshop on cybersecurityin November brought together a selectgroup of policy leaders from diverse perspectivesto explore the key challenges facing thisemerging interdisciplinary field.Vol. 37 No. 2Fall 2012International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticatedanalyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations.The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by theMIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@Harvard.edu.“Two Concepts of Liberty: U.S. Cold War Grand Strategies and theLiberal Tradition”Brendan Rittenhouse GreenContrary to conventional accounts, the United States did not immediatelyadopt a balancing strategy against the Soviet Union after World War II.Rather, the Eisenhower administration sought U.S. withdrawal from WesternEurope by pursuing a buck-passing strategy. Only under the Kennedyadministration did the United States begin to make permanent commitmentsto the defense of Europe. A new theory analyzes this shift in policy,defining those who sought to withdraw from Europe as “negative liberals”and those who sought firmer balancing commitments as “positive liberals.”“Just War Moral Philosophy and the 2008–09 Israeli Campaign in Gaza”Jerome SlaterThe controversial 2008–09 Israeli campaign in Gaza violated just war principleson three main accounts: it did not discriminate in its targets, there wasno just cause, and it did not exhaust nonviolent alternatives. Human rightsorganizations have criticized Israel for its methods during the campaign, butits claim that the attack was an act of self-defense and was therefore justifiableis still widely accepted. The campaign’s primary purpose, however, wasto crush resistance to Israel’s repression of Gaza—an indefensible cause byjust war standards. Moreover, Israel did not fully explore political alternativesbefore launching the attack.“Israel’s War in Gaza: A Paradigm of Effective Military Learningand Adaptation”Benjamin S. LambethThe United States and its allies have long sought to learn from major combatencounters and to assimilate their learning into military doctrine, forcedevelopment, and operating procedures. Israel’s successful campaign inGaza in 2008–09 is evidence that the Israel Defense Forces learned fromtheir mistakes in the Lebanon War two years earlier and incorporated thatlearning into their combat repertoire. Israel’s achievement in this area shouldbe studied as an exemplar of military lessons learned and assimilated.“The Psychology of Threat in Intergroup Conflict: Emotions,Rationality, and Opportunity in the Rwandan Genocide”Omar Shahabudin McDoomGroup emotions, fear in particular, play an important role in how securitythreats polarize social groups. The case of the Rwanadan genocide demonstratesthat four psychosocial mechanisms—boundary activation, outgroupderogation, outgroup homogenization, and ingroup cohesion—play animportant role in group polarization, and that fear is a crucial driver ofthese mechanisms. A more thorough understanding of how security threatsactivate group polarization could help policymakers to minimize intergroupconflict.“China’s Fear of Contagion: Tiananmen Square and the Power of theEuropean Example”M.E. SarotteObsession with the democratic changes sweeping Europe in the late 1980sand a concomitant desire to keep these changes from spreading to Chinamay have played a critical role in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s)decision to take violent action against the Tiananmen Square protestors in1989. New sources, released during the 2009 to 2011 anniversaries of theevents that ended the Cold War, cite the CCP’s determination to prevent thespread of democracy as one of its primary motivating factors. These sourcesalso suggest that the CCP did not fear reprisals by the United States, whichit predicted would take “no real countermeasures.”Compiled by International Security staff.15


The Robert and Renée Belfer Center forScience and International AffairsGraham Allison, Director79 John F. Kennedy StreetCambridge, MA 02138Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963www.belfercenter.orgBelfer Center NewsletterEditor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director,Communications, sharon_wilke@harvard.eduJames Smith, Director, Communicationsjames_smith@harvard.eduTraci Farrell, Communications Assistanttraci_farrell@harvard.eduThe Communications Office was assisted in production ofthis newsletter by Peter Bacon, Dominic Contreras, NoelleJanka, Rebecca Jeanjean, Emily Hough, Stefanie Le, WesleyNord, Susan Lynch, and Christopher Wand.Photographs: All photos courtesy of the Belfer Center unlessotherwise noted.Nonprofit Org.U. S. PostagePAIDNashua, NHPermit No. 375The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledgeabout the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology,environmental policy, and international affairs intersect; and (2) to prepare future generations ofleaders for these arenas.Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center.BELFER IN BRIEFLecture Series Honors David HamburgCarnegie Corporation of New York has announced a $200,000 grant to the Foreign PolicyAssociation to help establish the Andrew Carnegie Distinguished Lecture in honorof former Corporation President David Hamburg, a member of the Belfer CenterInternational Council. The annual lecture series will honor and continue Hamburg’sefforts on elimination of war.Former Research Fellows Contribute ExtraordinaryTalents in U.S., CanadaCongratulations to: Aisha Ahmad (Initiative on Religion in International Affairs/InternationalSecurity Program): now Assistant Professor, Political Science, University ofToronto. Michael Beckley (ISP): currently Postdoctoral Fellow, Dickey Center forInternational Understanding, Dartmouth University. Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer(ISP/MTA): currently Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow, CISAC, Stanford.Sarah S. Bush (ISP): now Assistant Professor, Political Science, Temple University.Ahsan I. Butt (ISP): currently Assistant Professor of Government and Politics, GeorgeMason University. Jennifer M. Dixon (ISP): now Assistant Professor, Political Science,Villanova University. Jennifer M. Keister (former ISP and Intrastate Conflict Program):now Visiting Research Fellow, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies,University of Notre Dame. Erik Linstrum (Ernest May Fellow in History andPolicy/ISP): currently Assistant Professor, Department of History and PostdoctoralScholar, Society of Fellows, University of Michigan. Hassan Malik (Ernest May Fellow/ISP):now Fellow, Program on Global Society and Security Fellow, WeatherheadCenter for International Affairs, Harvard University. John Park (Associate, Project onManaging the Atom): currently Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at MIT.James Platte (former Stanton Nuclear Security Predoctoral Fellow): now InternationalAffairs Fellow in Japan, Council on Foreign Relations. Courtney Richardson (ISP):currently Princeton-Harvard China and the World Fellow, Fairbank Center for ChineseStudies, Harvard University. Melissa Willard-Foster (ISP): currently Assistant Professor,Political Science, University of Vermont.Center Hails Newest Community MembersCongratulations to the newest Belferites: Nico and Carmen, twins of Laura DiazAnadon and her husband Jeff; Alvida, daughter of Amanda Sardonis and her husbandElias; and Emma, daughter of John Park and his wife Pam, and sister to brother Eliot.16John P. Holdren Makes a Mark on Mars: In addition to bringingvaluable information to Earth, the rover Curiosity took somethingto the Red Planet: a plaque that bears signatures of PresidentObama, Vice President Biden, and the Belfer Center’s very ownJohn P. Holdren, member of the Center’s board now on leave todirect the Office of Science and Technology and PresidentObama’s science advisor.Sharing the Honors: Calestous Juma, director of the BelferCenter’s Science, Technology and Globalization Project, withMargaret Kamar, Kenyan Minister for Higher Education, Scienceand Technology. Juma was in Nairobi to receive an honorarydoctorate from Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture andTechnology and to address the University’s 2012 graduating class.P Printed on recycled paper.O S T P P H O T O

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