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E-International Scientific Research JournalISSN: 2094-1749 Volume: 2 Issue: 4, 2010Climate change as manifested by very long dry season or very heavy rainfall alsomakes people vulnerable to various kinds of health problems, particularly to vector bornediseases. For instance, Chowell et al. (2006) discovered that <strong>the</strong> incubation period for denguefor persons bitten by mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti) is significantly shortened (from 12 days downto 5 days) at temperatures beyond 31 0 C. Not only that, a significant increase in <strong>the</strong> number ofmosquitoes is observed in <strong>the</strong> rainy season perhaps because of an increase in <strong>the</strong> number ofbreeding sites. When <strong>the</strong>se two information are combined, we obtain a grim picture forcountries with tropical climates (temperatures ranging from 31 o C to 34 o C) and experiencing<strong>the</strong> La Nina effect. This year alone, <strong>the</strong> statistics for <strong>the</strong> number of people diagnosed with oneof <strong>the</strong> dengue serotypes (January to June,2010) in <strong>the</strong> Philippines already surpassed <strong>the</strong> numberinfected in 2009. A health outbreak such as this eventually finds expression in a significantlyreduced per capita economic productivity.The business sector which determines <strong>the</strong> economic growth and development of <strong>the</strong>Province of Zamboanga del Norte will likely experience <strong>the</strong>se negative effects of climatechange brought about by <strong>the</strong> combined effects of a dwindling supply of energy, frequent watershortages, rise in transportation costs and health issues in <strong>the</strong> various communities. Althoughwe have confined our analysis to <strong>the</strong> province of Zamboanga del Norte, we suspect that <strong>the</strong>same phenomenon can be observed elsew<strong>here</strong> in <strong>the</strong> country.Climate change, on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, can ironically, also bring about positive impact on<strong>the</strong> business and industry. A study conducted in 2008 on Climate Change Challenge –Implications for <strong>the</strong> Tourism Industry, stressed that climate change provides opportunity togenerate both tangible and sustainable solutions. An example is on <strong>the</strong> supply of water. Whilewater supply becomes more and more scarce in almost every region of <strong>the</strong> country, it alsocreates business opportunities for those capitalists who can eventually do business withpurified drinking water, which implies greater productivity for <strong>the</strong> commercial sector.Opportunities such as this abound and simply reflects man’s flexibility to adapt to climatechange.This study, <strong>the</strong>refore, aims to look into <strong>the</strong> direct and indirect economic impact ofclimate change on <strong>the</strong> business sector of <strong>the</strong> province. In particular, it examines <strong>the</strong> direct andindirect effects of rainfall and temperature fluctuations over a 12-month period on three (3)economic sectors: tourism, agriculture and commercial sectors through a path analysis. Theintervening factors which contribute to <strong>the</strong> observed productivity of <strong>the</strong>se sectors, namely,health and energy supply, were used as intervening nodes in <strong>the</strong> path analysis performed.Research Method and DesignThe data were taken from different sources which cover a twelve (12) month periodcommencing April 2009 to March 2010. To ascertain <strong>the</strong> average precipitations and rise intemperature, data were obtained from <strong>the</strong> Philippines Atmospheric survey of <strong>the</strong> Department ofScience and Technology. The data on energy level and public health were taken from sourcesto include <strong>the</strong> Zamboanga del Norte Electric Cooperative, DOTC and <strong>the</strong> hospitals inZamboanga del Norte. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, <strong>the</strong> data on <strong>the</strong> business sector were from <strong>the</strong>Department of Trade and Industry, <strong>the</strong> BIR and <strong>the</strong> Department of Agriculture. Statistical378

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