SA headline CPI - Stanlib

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SA headline CPI - Stanlib

SA headline CPI% y/y161412Headline inflation rose to 6.3%y/y in January 2011.Slightly above expectations for a rise to 6.2%Headline CPIOld and new weights10864201998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.62008MAMJJASOND2009FMAMJJASOND2010FMAMJJASOND2011FMAMJJASOND2012%m/mSouth Africa Inflation (CPI): month-on-month


SA consumer inflation – long term history% y/y2520151050-5201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200099989796959493929190898887868584838281807978777675747372717069


CPI by income groupJanuary 2012, %y/y9.08.07.06.05.04.03.02.0Very lowLowMiddleHighVery high1.00.0


Contribution to CPIJanuary 2012, 0.6%m/m%0.250.200.150.10FoodMiscellaneousResidual0.050.00


SA petrol price monthly changeRand per litre0.60.50.40.30.20.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4Feb-12Jan-12Dec-11Nov-11Oct-11Sep-11Aug-11Jul-11Jun-11May-11Apr-11Mar-11Feb-11Jan-11Dec-10Nov-10Oct-10Sep-10Aug-10Jul-10Jun-10May-10


Breakdown of SA food inflation between processed andunprocessed by weightFood has a weight of 14.27% in the overall CPIUnprocessed52%Processed48%


Detailed breakdown of SA food inflationFood has a weight of 14.27% in the overall CPISugar, sweets5%Vegetables11%Other5%Bread and cereals22%Fruit3%Oils and fats4%Milk, eggs and cheese13%Fish5%Meat32%


SA food inflation, monthly%m/m, 3-month ave2.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.41211100908


SA food inflation% y/y2520Food inflation y/y151050-51998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


SA food inflation% y/y3025Food inflation y/y20151050-5Food inflation 3-month annualised-101998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Breakdown of CPI inflation by categoryCategory Weight % y/yCPI for administered prices 14.66 11.6Food and non-alcoholic beverages 15.68 10.3Education 2.19 8.6Tansport 18.8 6.8Housing and utilities 22.56 6.6CPI for all goods 54.2 6.5CPI excluding owners' equivalent rent 87.79 6.5Alcoholic beverages & tobacco 5.58 6.3CPI for services 45.8 5.9CPI excluding petrol 96.07 5.7Misc. goods and services 13.56 5.7Restaurants & hotels 2.78 5.6Health 1.47 5.2CPI excluding food and NAB and petrol 80.39 4.7Clothing and footwear 4.11 3.8Household contents 5.86 2.2Recreation and culture 4.19 -0.3Communication 3.22 -1.5


SA producer inflation vs CPIX% y/y20181614121086420-2-4-6CPIPPI1110090807060504030201009998


SA headline CPI forecast% y/y16141210864201998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


South Africa Repo Rate vs Prime Interest Rate%18171615Prime rate14131211109Repo rate876501 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

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