2010Wolverhampton’sCity StrategyPlace Cluster Needs AnalysisWorking DraftData for the further development of the City Strategy
Page2INTRODUCTIONThe “Place” Cluster Needs Analysis is one of four booklets to support partners andstakeholders in the development of the City Strategy and supporting Partnershipimplementation Plan. The other booklets are:Community Cluster Needs AnalysisPeople and Family Cluster Needs AnalysisBusiness Cluster Needs AnalysisDuring the course of the next three months we will be developing and refining theinformation to reflect the emerging priorities in the implementation plan. Theintention is that when the Strategy and Implementation plan is finalised next spring,there is a concise evidence base that has a clear read across to the final plans, and isaccessible to all the city’s stakeholders.
Page4Predicted population change in WolverhamptonThe city’s population is predicted to grow only marginally by 2031 (to 247,000) but itscomposition will change significantly. Most increase is likely in the BME communities whowill constitute around one-third of the city’s population by 2026.Over the next five years there will be growth of 6-8% in three groups – the young, middleaged and old age as shown in the diagram below. The subsequent 15 years will see growthof over 30% in the 65+ population, increasing from 40,600 in 2010 to 53,100 by 2031. Thepopulation over 80 will grow by more than 50% in the next 20 years.Population by Age 2010-30Population by Ethnicity 2008-26ALL White Mixed Indian Pakistani OtherAsianBlack Other2008 239,000 178,500 7,300 32,050 4,500 3,100 11,950 1,7502016 239,900 171,800 8,800 34,200 6,100 4,250 12,850 2,0502026 241,800 163,600 11,150 36,150 8,550 5,900 14,200 2,400The predictions are for all minority ethnic groups to increase and for a significant reductionin the white population of city. This is based primarily on respective birth rates.
Page5CULTURAL AND VISITORECONOMY
Page6“The UK has the largest creative sector in the EU, and relative to GDP probably the largest inthe world. It is a national asset in multiple ways... The creative and cultural industries playan increasingly important role in economic life. They account for 7.3 per cent of the economycomparable in size to the financial services industry. They employ 1 million peoplethemselves, while another 800,000 work in creative occupations.” 2Employment in WolverhamptonThe employment rate in the City has fallen to 61.3% (September 2010). In 2007, it was66.4% and within a year had fallen to 64.5%. 3Since 1995, service sector employment had risen both absolutely and relatively from 64.8%of employee jobs (63,495) to 81.2% (84,400). The biggest increase came in PublicAdministration, Education and Health, which rose from 22,441 of jobs (22.9%) in 1995 to31,800 (30.7%) in 2008 4 .Employment by Industry Sector 2008 5Wolverhampton(employee jobs)Wolverhampton(%)West Midlands(%)Total employee jobs 103,800 - - -Full-time 72,200 69.6 69.4 68.8Part-time 31,600 30.4 30.6 31.2Employee jobs by industryManufacturing 14,600 14.0 13.8 10.2Construction 4,700 4.6 4.9 4.8Services 84,400 81.2 79.7 83.5Distribution, hotels &restaurantsTransport &communicationsFinance, IT, other businessactivitiesPublic admin, education &health24,200 23.3 23.6 23.45,400 5.2 5.8 5.818,600 17.9 18.6 22.031,800 30.7 27.0 27.0Other services 4,400 4.2 4.6 5.3Tourism-related † 6,600 6.4 7.4 8.2Great Britain(%)2 ‘Staying Ahead: the economic performance of Britain’s creative industries’, Work Foundation 20073 Source: NOMIS4 Source: NOMIS5 Source: ONS annual business inquiry employee analysis. Tourism-related includes the followingsectors: Hotels, Camping sites etc, Restaurants, Bars, Activities of travel agencies etc, Library,Archives, museums etc, Sporting activities, Other recreational activities
Page7Impact on Jobs of CSRPrice Waterhouse Coopers have predicted that the West Midlands will lose a further 80,000jobs shared equally by the public and private sector or 3.6% of the total number of jobs inthe region 6 . In Wolverhampton, this would equate to a further 3,500 job losses althoughthere is no reason to suppose that all areas will be affected evenly.The report continues:“Whilst important, we also question whether the Regional Growth Fund (RGF).... will providea large enough incentive or access to funds to make a material difference and whether localauthorities and the newly created Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) will have theresources, fiscal powers and capacity to mitigate the impact of cuts and promote growthlocally.”Estimated private sector output losses in 2014/15 due to reduced public sector demand 7SectorsEstimated grossoutput loss (£bn at2007 prices)Business services 11.9 3.9Construction 10.6 5.1Manufacturing 9.3 2.0Transport and3.2 1.9communicationsDistribution, hotels and 1.1 0.4cateringFinancial services 2.0 1.1Other sectors 8.3 1.5Total private sector 46.4 2.1Loss as % of grossoutput in sector6 Source: http://www.ukmediacentre.pwc.com/imagelibrary/downloadMedia.ashx?MediaDetailsID=18027 Source: PwC analysis
Page9GVA Growth Prospects by Sector and Cluster 8In absolute terms growth is forecast to be most significant in lower value added privatesector activities – like the cultural, recreational and sporting sector – which are forecast togenerate nearly £3.5 billion of GVA by 2015. Growth is forecast to be most significant inlower value added business services (which are forecast to generate nearly £2.5 billion ofGVA by 2015) and transport (which is forecast to generate just over £1.4 billion by 2015).The weakest growth (less than 9%), meanwhile, is expected in ‘transition centres’ whereslow growth in private sector employment, poor business start up rates and lowemployment rates may limit prospects for recovery and ‘traditional industrial’ areas , likeWolverhampton, identified as having long term issues that may inhibit recovery. 9Employment is expected to continue to fall gradually, meanwhile, in ‘traditional industrial’areas identified as having long term issues that may inhibit recovery. Job creation in theregion will focus, as the diagram below shows, on the lower value added private sectoractivities.8 Source: West Midlands Observatory – Post-Recession Report, 20109 Source: ibid
Page10Absolute change in employment by sector grouping in the West Midlands 2010-15 10Replacement DemandReplacement demand is expected to be even more significant in lower value added privatesector industries where labour turnover is very significant. For example in the hotels &catering sector more than 132,000 jobs are expected to be created (99% of all created overthe 2010-2015 period) and the figures are 128,000 (95%) in wholesale & retail distribution,120,000 (94%) in lower value added business services, 72,000 (98%) in cultural, recreational& sporting activities and 53,000 (98%) in transport 11 .Net New Jobs and Replacement Demand by Sector 2010-1510 Source: ibid11 Source: ibid
Page11Business OpportunitiesIn environmental technologies significant opportunities are expected to arise in renewableenergy technologies, recycling and waste management and clean and waste watermanagement. However, to date, there has been a limited emphasis on R&D and newproduct development, which may inhibit the ability of businesses to exploit these marketopportunities. As a result there is a need for businesses to be proactive in developing linkswith the region’s universities, many of whom have developed an expertise in environmentaltechnologies 12 .At the same time the region’s ICT businesses, which have a tradition of producing innovativeproducts and services, are in a position to exploit opportunities associated with digitalconvergence - with an emerging global market for services covering communications, IT andmedia. Social factors such as environmental concerns and the desire for ‘green IT’, the riseof social computing and increased power to the consumer to determine content andservices and the impact of the new generation of ‘digital natives’ are also creating newmarket opportunities 13 . Key emerging markets include ICT security, informatics, mobile &wireless, photonics and radio frequency identification.A similar convergence is creating opportunities for digital media firms, with the creation ofnew platforms, devices and channels and demand for more and different content, productsand services and the skills to develop them. Key growth market opportunities includedeveloping digital content for entertainment, exploiting digital content to developinnovative and future focused education and using digital media in a range of businessactivities such as training, scenario and business planning and virtual conferences. 14The 2012 Olympics and Paralympics offer key business opportunities within culturalrecreational & sporting activities through the Cultural Olympiad, Cultural Programme andlegacy activities 15 . Major sporting events will be held at different locations across the UKand a number of pre-games training camps are to be located in the West Midlands,attracting world class competitors and boosting the visitor economy 16 . To maximise thepotential benefits organisations need to develop leadership skills to encourage innovationand strategic planning, negotiation skills for client and contract management and selling,marketing and PR skills.12 Source: West Midlands Regional Observatory/Labour Market Solutions Ltd – environmentaltechnologies skills review, 200913 Source: E-Skills UK - The Sector Qualifications and Learning Strategy for IT and Telecoms (April2008)14 Source: Sector Skills Agreement for the Creative Media Industries England Update 2008-201115 Source: The Sector Skills Agreement for the Creative and Cultural Industries – June 200816 Source: Sector Skills Assessment for the Skills-Active Sector Skills Council – December 2009
Page13The public realm remains a key resident concern – in surveys residents tell us that the mostimportant issues for them are that they should feel safe and live in a clean environment.There has been an overall improvement in the last three years across a range of theseresident issues:CLEANER and GREENERIn the Autumn 2009 council-commissioned place survey, residents responded positivelywhen asked how satisfied they were the Council’s services designed to make theirneighbourhood cleaner and all showed improvements on the previous year.
Page14All the “cleaner” targets in the Local Area Agreement are performing at or above target andin 2009 the City was in the best ten per cent nationally for both landfill and residentssatisfaction (83.1% of residents) 17 .Similarly, all the indicators for energy consumption and emissions are improving and are atleast average nationally. The “ecological footprint” of the City is in the best 10% nationally. 18Green and Open SpacesThe following map identifies the open spaces in the City 19 . Access to open spaces remains anissue in the City.17 Source: Audit Commission18 Source: Audit Commission19 City Council
Page15SAFERThere have been small improvements in how safe people in the City but nearly two-thirds ofresidents do not feel safe after dark 20 .However, the percentage of residents who think local public services are working well tomake the City safe is on the lowest 10% nationally 21 and nor do residents think that thepolice and council understand the issues as they relate to anti-social behaviour.Nevertheless, the City performs well (top quintile) on resident involvement in tackling crimeand anti-social behaviour.In terms of actual crime, apart from robbery, all reported crime continues to fall in the City.100908070605040302010088.130.317.4 13.5 10.6 7.6 7.33.6 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.3Wolverhampton crime rate per 1000 population by type of crime 2220 Source: City Council Perception Survey21 Source: Audit Commission, One Place22 Source: West Midlands Police, 2010
Page16Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10In terms of neighbourhoods, the following chart shows the most up-to-date situation 23 :180.0160.0140.0120.0100.080.060.040.020.00.0Neighbourhood crime rates per 1000 populationAug 08 - Jul 09 Aug 09-Jul 10Against the city-wide fall, increases in recorded crime have taken place in Bilston East, HeathTown, Blakenhall, Park, East Park and Oxley in the past twelve months.24.0023.5023.0022.5022.0021.5021.0020.5020.0019.5019.00Series1 Annual RateSeries2 Target RateSerious acquisitive crime has increased significantly since the turn of the year. There may bea number of reasons for this including the impact of the recession and the high price ofmetals.23 Source: West Midlands Police