ABOUT THE AUTHORHilton L. Root is a professor of Public Policy at GeorgeMason University in Virginia. He is currently leading aUSAID-funded project on effective government in Muslimmajoritycountries.ABOUT THE EDITORPeter Passell is a senior fellow at <strong>the</strong> Milken <strong>Institute</strong> and<strong>the</strong> editor of its quarterly economic policy journal, TheMilken <strong>Institute</strong> Review. He is a former member of <strong>the</strong> NewYork Times editorial board and was an assistant professor atColumbia University’s Graduate Department of Economics.Passell is <strong>the</strong> economics editor of <strong>the</strong> Democracy Lab channelat ForeignPolicy.com, a joint venture between <strong>the</strong> <strong>Legatum</strong><strong>Institute</strong> and Foreign Policy magazine offering analysis andopinion on <strong>the</strong> issues facing countries in transition fromauthoritarianism to democracy.2 www.li.com
THE LEGATUM INSTITUTE<strong>An</strong> <strong>Unsteady</strong> <strong>Colossus</strong><strong>Astride</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Bosphorus</strong>In its dash forgrowth across <strong>the</strong>two administrations,Turkey has embracedeconomic opennesswith a vengeance,with trade (importsplus exports)increasing from 17%of GDP in 1980 toroughly 50% today.TURKEY AND THE WESTBy almost any broad measure of success, <strong>the</strong> Turkish economyis well on its way. Turkey has almost doubled average incomessince <strong>the</strong> turn of <strong>the</strong> twenty-first century, even as it reducedpoverty and edged toward greater income equality. What’smore, <strong>the</strong> economy has shown remarkable vigour in bouncingback from <strong>the</strong> recession, in spite of <strong>the</strong> ongoing malaise in itsEuropean trade partners.But Turkey’s evolution since World War II suggests that <strong>the</strong>road ahead to upper-income status could be tortuous, requiringdifficult political and socioeconomic adaptations. Indeed, tounderstand Turkey’s strengths and vulnerabilities, one mustunderstand how <strong>the</strong> country has imperfectly bridged gapsbetween West and East, democracy and authoritarianism, andsecular nationalism and Islamic conservatism.Since <strong>the</strong> 1980s, Turkey has welcomed free markets. The majorityJustice and Development Party (AKP), which is openly tiedto Islam, is continuing <strong>the</strong> process of market liberalism thatTurgut Özal, <strong>the</strong> prime minister (1983–19<strong>89</strong>) and later president(19<strong>89</strong>–1993), initiated as leader of <strong>the</strong> nationalist centre-RightMo<strong>the</strong>rland Party (ANAP, now defunct). In its dash for growthacross <strong>the</strong> two administrations, Turkey has embraced economicopenness with a vengeance, with trade (imports plus exports)increasing from 17% of GDP in 1980 to roughly 50% today.Foreign policymakers and pundits in <strong>the</strong> West rooted for thischange, anticipating that <strong>the</strong> prosperity derived from marketliberalism would streng<strong>the</strong>n Turkey’s affinity with America andEurope. However, rapid economic growth has not producedparallel social modernization as it did in <strong>the</strong> West. Turkey hasbecome more conservative and less tolerant. Relations with<strong>the</strong> West have improved from <strong>the</strong>ir nadir during <strong>the</strong> war in Iraq,but enthusiasm for joining <strong>the</strong> European Union has diminishedand an increasingly assertive population expresses increasinglynegative views of <strong>the</strong> West. Moreover, though Turkey is onewww.prosperity.com3
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