Technology

banninggarrett

Technology

Atlantic CouncilBRENT SCOWCROFT CENTERON INTERNATIONAL SECURITYTechnology Will KeepChanging Everything—and Will Do It FasterBanning Garrett


July 2015© 2015 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Atlantic Council, except in the case of briefquotations in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. Please direct inquiries to:Atlantic Council1030 15th Street, NW, 12th FloorWashington, DC 20005ISBN: 978-1-61977-994-5Publication design: Krystal FergusonThis report is written and published in accordance with the Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence. The author is solelyresponsible for its analysis and recommendations. The Atlantic Council, its partners, and funders do not determine, nor do theynecessarily endorse or advocate for, any of this report’s particular conclusions.


TABLE OF CONTENTSExponential Change................................................................................................................................................. 4The First Step of Disruption..................................................................................................................................... 6Impact on Society Difficult to Forecast.................................................................................................................... 6No Turning Back the Technology Clock................................................................................................................... 7Twelve Disruptive Technologies............................................................................................................................... 83D Printing Exemplifies Potential for Disruptive Social Change.............................................................................. 9The Next Wave: 4D Printing....................................................................................................................................10New Robotics: Out of the Factory..........................................................................................................................103D Printing Life: The Synbio Revolution..................................................................................................................11The Individual Empowered by Mobile Computing Power and Connectivity.........................................................14Oculus Rift................................................................................................................................................................15The Future Is Unevenly Distributed.........................................................................................................................16Alternative Futures..................................................................................................................................................18


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterTECHNOLOGY WILL KEEP CHANGINGEVERYTHING—AND WILL DO IT FASTERExponential ChangeImagine the world before the Internet. Hard to do,isn’t it? Yet the Internet has been around for only twodecades—just one generation—meaning that people intheir thirties and older grew up in the pre-Internet era. 1In that short time, the Internet has become nearly aspervasive as electricity. In much of the world, it is now aubiquitous utility at home, in the office, and in the entireglobal fabric of economics, government, and politics.Smartphones are even bringing the Internet to peoplewithout access to the electricity grid who charge theirphones with solar power. It is even difficult to imaginethe world without Google, Facebook, Twitter, and thehundreds of thousands of smartphone applications thathave mushroomed within the last decade.Many other astounding and influential technologies didnot exist or were not widely disseminated two decadesago, including drones, advanced robotics, 3D printing,synthetic biology, a wide range of nanotechnologies, andnew materials like graphene.Imagine now that more technological change will affectour lives in the next twenty years than in the past halfcentury. The pace of change in many areas of technologyand the innovations based on those technologies isexponential rather than linear. Like “Moore’s Law,”whose prediction of computer chip power doublingevery eighteen to twenty-four months has provenaccurate for four decades of the computer revolution,the capability of many other new technologies is alsodoubling at a regular pace rather than increasingThe author wishes to thank David Brin, Mathew Burrows, ThomasCampbell, William Colglazier, John Hanacek, Peter Haynes, RobMeagley, Mark Roeder, and Alfred Watkins, for their helpfulcomments on this report.1 The World Wide Web went live on April 30, 1993.This report was part of Emerging Technologies andSociety, a joint project of the Strategic Foresight Initiative(SFI) at the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Centeron International Security and the Risk Assessment andHorizon Scanning Program Office in the National SecurityCoordination Secretariat (NSCS) of the Government ofSingapore. The Emerging Technologies and Society projectfocused on the political, economic, and societal impacts ofsignificant innovations in science and technology.incrementally. 2 To visualize the difference, if you takethirty one-yard-long steps, the thirtieth step is also oneyard long like the first step and you will find yourselfthirty yards from where you started. If you doubledthe length of each step, your thirtieth step would beabout one billion yards long, or more than twenty-twotimes the circumference of the earth. The differenceis more than just quantitative. It is a different worldof change. Today’s smartphone has more computingpower than the most powerful supercomputer in 1985,and hundreds of millions of people now carry aroundthat computing power in their pockets. 3 The capacity ofdigital storage has similarly increased, and the cost hasshrunk at an exponential pace. Think about that paceof change for another twenty years just in computing2 Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near (New York: Penguin Books,2005). Kurzweil argues that technology has been on anexponential path of development for centuries. See chapter 2, “ATheory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns.”See the Performance Curve Database (http://pcdb.santafe.edu/)for data on some key exponential technologies. It should be notedthat not all technologies have developed exponentially. Theperformance of the airplane and the internal combustion engine,for example, has not improved exponentially over the last century.3 McKinsey Global Institute points out that the fastestsupercomputer in 1975 cost $5 million compared with $400 for itscomputing power equal, the iPhone 4. James Manyika, MichaelChui, Jacques Bughin, Richard Dobbs, Peter Bisson, and Alex Marrs,Disruptive Technologies: Advances that Will Transform Life, Businessand the Global Economy (McKinsey Global Institute, May 2013), p. 5,http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies.Banning Garrett is a Washington-based writer and independent consultant who works on global trends, exponential technologies,sustainable urbanization, and US-China relations. He was the Director of the Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft CenterATLANTICon InternationalCOUNCILSecurity at the Atlantic Council from 2011 to 2013.4


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterThe LG stand at the Mobile World Congress 2013 in Barcelona, Spain. Photo credit: Jordiferrer/Flickrpower. 4 Significant exponential change is also takingplace in many other areas of technology, includingartificial intelligence and robotics, biotechnology andbioinformatics, energy and environmental systems,medicine and neuroscience, and nanotechnology. 5The pace of new technology adoption has also beenaccelerating, from electricity and the telephone to themobile phone and the tablet. 6In genomics, Moore’s Law has been on steroids. Thefirst sequencing of the human genome cost more than$1 billion. Today, total personal genome sequencing4 For a discussion of the cost curve on DNA sequencing falling fasterthan Moore’s Law, see Aaron Saenz, “Costs of DNA SequencingFalling Fast—Look at These Graphs!,” May 3, 2011, http://singularityhub.com/2011/03/05/costs-of-dna-sequencing-fallingfast-look-at-these-graphs/.5 This list was presented by Karen Myronuk, Singularity University,on April 15, 2013.6 “It took 30 years for electricity and 25 years for telephones to reach10% penetration but less than five years for tablet devices toachieve the 10% rate. It took an additional 39 years for telephonesto reach 40% penetration and another 15 before they becameubiquitous. Smart phones, on the other hand, accomplished a 40%penetration rate in just 10 years, if we time the first smartphone’sintroduction from the 2002 shipment of the first BlackBerry thatcould make phone calls and the first Palm-OS-powered Treomodel.” Rita McGrath, “The Pace of Technology Adoption isSpeeding Up,” Harvard Business Review, November 25, 2013,https://hbr.org/2013/11/the-pace-of-technology-adoption-isspeeding-up/.costs about $1,000 and will likely fall to $200 soon.This million-fold drop in price will help with custommedical diagnoses and, with access to big data analysistools, help discover genetic links to specific diseasesand disorders by analyzing millions of genomes andcrowdsourcing analysis.Not only are individual technologies on an exponentialcurve of improvement, but the combination of key digitaltechnologies is at an “inflection point,” according to MITresearchers Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, whomaintain that “we are entering a second machine age.” 7Brynjolfsson and McAffee note that the convergence ofexponential technologies can surpass the expectationsof science fiction: “On the Star Trek television series,devices called tricorders were used to scan and recordthree kinds of data: geological, meteorological, andmedical. Today’s consumer smartphones serve all thesepurposes; they can be put to work as seismographs,real-time weather radar maps, and heart- andbreathing-rate monitors. And, of course, they’re notlimited to these domains. They also work as mediaplayers, game platforms, reference works, cameras, andglobal positioning system (GPS) devices. On Star Trek,tricorders and person-to-person communicators were7 Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age:Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies(New York: W.W. Norton, 2014), chapter 1.5 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterNo Turning Back the Technology ClockEnvision the disappearance of the Internet from lifetoday. It is not difficult to paint a picture of economiccollapse, social disarray, political upheaval, militaryparalysis, and extensive conflict. The Internet’sdisappearance would cripple modern life, includingmost transportation systems, logistics and foodprovision, banking and financial transactions, allcommunications systems, and the infrastructurecontrolling water and electricity. In short, moderncivilization would collapse into an unprecedented crisis.The world would not return to the pre-Internet era oftwenty years ago but perhaps to a pre-industrial age.The possibility of the Internet’s sudden disappearanceis not as farfetched as it may seem. Massive solargeomagnetic storms occur in less than one hundredyearintervals, the most recent one hitting the Earthin 1859, before the world was wired up. Such a stormcould knock out satellites, the electric grid, andmany sensitive electronic devices. “Until cures areimplemented,” the US National Intelligence Council’sreport, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, warns,“solar super-storms will pose a large-scale threat tothe world’s social and economic fabric.” 1 In July 2012,Earth experienced a near-miss of such a massive solarstorm. Experts foresee a 12 percent chance of a directhit in the next ten years. 2So as one considers the impact of technologyon society and laments its downsides—fromvulnerabilities of the digitally connected world todigital unemployment and new technologicallyenabled security threats—it is important not to losesight of society’s deep dependence on this technology.It is impossible to stop the science and technologytrain, and trying to dismantle today’s technologicalsociety would be suicidal. Humans have always beena technological species since harnessing fire to cookfood. Mankind must continue advancing science andtechnology while addressing critical challenges, such asclimate change, that technology has helped create if itis to avert a total collapse of civilization.1 US National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030: AlternativeWorlds (December 2012), p. 52, http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/global-trends-2030.2 US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “Near Miss:The Solar Superstorm of July 2012,” July 23, 2014,http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-atnasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/.technology on society, the following points are importantto keep in mind:• The future is inherently unpredictable—society isnot based on quantifiable and predictable Newtonianphysics.• The pace of technological change is accelerating, muchof it at an exponential pace, which is likely to effectaccelerated change in society.• Much of the disruptive technological change is a resultof many technologies coming together, such as thosethat make a smartphone smart. These range from theInternet and the web to touch screens, apps, and GPS.• Although decision-makers and technology expertscannot predict the future, they can forecast trendsin the development of technology and envision waysin which those technologies might be adopted andchange society.• It is useful to develop scenarios—alternative worlds—to envision how technology could affect society toprepare for or avert worst-case outcomes and to shapedesirable outcomes.To envision the potential impact of disruptivetechnologies on society, it is thus helpful to look atmultiple levels of effects, each of which is more difficultto foresee than the previous level. Technology itself isjust the “first-order” development that may or may nothave a major impact on society. The disruptiveness oftechnology comes in the subsequent orders of impactand development. The “second-order” effect is how aparticular technology, such as the personal computer,the Internet, or the mobile phone, is used. The “thirdorder”effect is the impact of using that technology onsociety—from economics, politics, and social relations tosecurity, military affairs, geopolitics, and geoeconomics.A “fourth-order” effect is how the third-order effects ofvarious technologies interact with each other to produceadditional significant effects on society.A new technology can make a previous iteration of thesame technology obsolete, or it can create an entirelynew category of technology, either of which may havemajor second-, third- and fourth-order social effects.The steam engine, the telegraph, the telephone, theInternet, and the microchip are just a few examples ofbroadly disruptive new categories of technologies and7 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It Fastertechnological applications that dramatically changedsociety with a broad range of knock-on effects. 11 Thelaptop, smartphone, and tablet all were disruptive butnot entirely new categories of technology. Rather, theywere built on a wide range of proven technologies. Yet,put together, they create a new socially disruptive realityof mobile computing. This mobility frees the individualfrom being tethered to a specific place, offering accessto vast computing power, cloud computing and storage,the Internet and data on everything from the immediatephysical and social environment, including geolocation,knowledge about any development in the world, andinstant communication with others, similarly nearlyanywhere else on the planet.This capability has third-order effects as it interacts withother disruptive technologies and their second- andthird-order impacts. For example, health systems, fromdiagnosis to provision and monitoring of health care,are likely to be disrupted. Hopefully, this disruption willbe for the better, with cost reductions through wearableand ingestible sensors monitoring individual health,artificial intelligence-aided diagnostic, and new, patientspecific,and noninvasive treatments.Some future technological disruption will be based on“proven technology” that is already changing societybut is likely to have far greater impact in the decadesto come. In addition, technologies under development,like quantum computing, are only in nascent stages ofresearch and development but are likely to bear fruit.The future development of technology is largely atthe edges of different emerging technologies andcombinations of existing technologies. Moreover, newtechnologies are most often built on the results ofbasic technological development that has been fundedat least in part by government. This includes not onlythe Internet, but also a huge array of critical basictechnologies from the GPS units on every smartphonefor establishing geolocation and timing to autonomousvehicles and new drugs. 1211 The telegraph, which for the first time wired up the world forinstant communication, had a dramatic impact on business modelsand government practice, as well as personal communication. SeeTom Standage, The Victorian Internet: The Remarkable Story of theTelegraph and the Nineteenth Century’s Online Pioneers (New York:Phoenix Books, 1999).12 See Mariana Mazzucato on the twelve critical technologies in theiPhone that trace their origins to government-supported research.Mariana Mazzucato, The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs.Private Myths in Risk and Innovation (New York: Anthem Press,2013), chapter 4.Twelve Disruptive TechnologiesMany efforts have been made to forecast theeconomic impact of disruptive technologies, mostnotably by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).In a May 2013 report, Disruptive Technologies:Advances that Will Transform Life, Business and theGlobal Economy, MGI examined twelve “potentiallyeconomically disruptive technologies”: 1• Mobile Internet—increasingly inexpensive andcapable mobile computing devices and Internetconnectivity• Automation of knowledge work—intelligentsoftware systems that can perform knowledge worktasks involving unstructured commands and subtlejudgments• The Internet of Things—networks of low-costsensors and actuators for data collection,monitoring, decision-making, and processoptimization• Cloud technology—use of computer hardware andsoftware resources delivered over a network or theInternet, often as a service• Advanced robotics—increasingly capable robotswith enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligenceused to automate tasks or augment humans• Autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles—vehicles that can navigate and operate withreduced or no human intervention• Next-generation genomics—fast, low-cost genesequencing, advanced big-data analytics, andsynthetic biology (“writing” DNA)• Energy storage—devices or systems that storeenergy for later use, including batteries• 3D printing—additive manufacturing techniques tocreate objects by printing layers of material basedon digital models• Advanced materials—materials designed to havesuperior characteristics (e.g., strength, weight,conductivity) or functionality• Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery—exploration and recovery techniques thatmake extraction of unconventional oil and gaseconomical• Renewable energy—generation of electricity fromrenewable sources with reduced harmful climateimpact1 James Manyika et al., p. 4.ATLANTIC COUNCIL 8


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterComplex designs at the Autodesk Gallery in San Francisco that demonstrates the ability of 3D printing to fabricate in a single processcomplicated geometries that are nearly impossible to produce using other manufacturing techniques. Image credit: Banning Garrett.3D Printing Exemplifies Potential forDisruptive Social Change3D printing has become a disruptive technologyas a result of the coming together of a set of newtechnologies. Basic 3D printing was invented somethree decades ago, but it reached a takeoff point asother technologies combined with the layered-printingcapability of a 3D printer. These include computeraideddesign, cloud computing, the Internet, newmaterials, and huge reductions in the costs of allthese capabilities, including the printers themselves.Moreover, the 3D printing revolution is the result of awide range of businesses and individuals pursuing thesetechnologies. Global manufacturers such as GeneralElectric, Boeing, EADS, and Ford are using expensive 3Dprinting machines and moving from rapid prototyping toproducing critical parts for airplanes, automobiles, windturbines, and other machines. From the bottom up, the3D printing revolution has been driven by the “do-ityourself”(DIY) movement, with tens of thousands ofusers buying personal 3D printers for experimentationor starting their own mini-manufacturing enterprises.The 3D printing revolution demonstrates the potentialsecond- and third-order effects of a disruptivetechnology. As a general purpose technology, 3D printingis likely to transform everything from the constructionindustry, which will print buildings, to bioprintersfabricating human tissue and replacement organs. Howwill these disruptive technological changes affect socialconditions?One of the second-order effects in the long run could bea dramatic transformation of manufacturing. Instead oflarge-scale assembly of thousands of parts into millionsof smartphones by tens of thousands of workers ata few factory complexes in China, small numbers ofsmartphones would be printed in thousands of locationsnear consumers around the world by a handful ofworkers in each local production facility. The third-ordereffects of this disruptive change could include massive“technological unemployment” at Chinese factories anda rebalancing of trade as fewer products are exportedand more are produced at the point of consumption. Thisshift could, in turn, affect social and political stabilityin countries that are now manufacturing platforms. Inshort, the simple process of layering to make things(“additive manufacturing,” the more formal term for3D printing) rather than carving them out of pieces ofmaterial (or “subtractive manufacturing”) could affectthe fate of nations and the international order.9 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterThe Next Wave: 4D PrintingOn the horizon is 4D printing or “programmablematter,” in which the fourth dimension is time. Thiswill be a world in which 3D printing produces materialobjects that are programmed to change their form(shape) and function (capabilities) after they arecreated. In some cases, they can even be commandedto disassemble into microscopic, “intelligent” particlesor “voxels,” and then reprogrammed to becomeentirely different material objects. The potential ofvoxels can be understood by analogy to biological life,which is composed of twenty-two building blocks—amino acids—that are directed by DNA to assemblethemselves in widely differing permutations to createdifferent proteins and eventually life forms. CornellUniversity professor Hod Lipson and science writerMelba Kurman, coauthors of Fabricated: The NewWorld of 3D Printing, explain that just as animalsand plants “can consume each other and reuse thebiological material because we are all made of thesame relatively small set of just 22 building blocks,” 1a relatively small number of types of voxels couldassemble and disassemble themselves into objects ofthe nonbiological material world, based on softwarethat performed a programming function similar toDNA. “In the same way a pixel is a building block of animage, a bit is a unit of information, and an amino acidis a building block of biological matter,” Lipson andKurman note, “a voxel is a volumetric pixel (hence itsname),” about the size of a grain of sand, that would1 Hod Lipson and Melba Kurman, Fabricated: the New World of 3DPrinting (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2013), p. 276.be the elementary unit of printed matter. “Just asamino acids are the low-level common denominatorthat enables nature to recycle materials perfectly, if allproducts would be made of a few dozen basic voxeltypes, products could be ‘printed,’ then decomposed,and reprinted into other products.” 2 Although voxelsdo not yet exist outside of the laboratory, Lipson andKurman foresee that eventually everyday objects mightbe made of billions of voxels.Potential applications of programmable matter mightinclude airplane wings that change shape in flight;buildings that transform as desired for differentfunctions, conserving space, cost, and the environment;infrastructure systems that adapt to loads or weather;furniture that is packaged flat but self-assembles afterpurchase; clothes that adapt to the user’s performanceor the changing environment; and objects thatdisassemble for protection of private information,recyclability, or self-repair. 3 Envisioning the second-,third-, and fourth-order effects of such technology isonly just beginning as the outlines of the potential of4D printing indicate that it will take manufacturing—orthe fabrication of the material world from the digitalworld—to a new level beyond 3D printing.2 Ibid., pp. 277-8; Thomas A. Campbell, Skylar Tibbits, andBanning Garrett, “The Programmable World,” ScientificAmerican, November 2014, pp. 60-65.3 Thomas A. Campbell, Skylar Tibbits, and Banning Garrett, TheNext Wave: 4D Printing and Programming the Material World(Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, May 2014); Lipson andKurman, pp. 275-281.New Robotics: Out of the Factory3D printing and forthcoming 4D printing are part of aThird Industrial Revolution that is changing the waythe material world is designed, manufactured, anddistributed. Another key technology contributing tothis revolution is new robotics, powered by a set oftechnologies, including information and communicationstechnology (ICT), artificial intelligence, the Internet ofThings, big data, advanced algorithms, cloud computingand storage, and GPS. In fact, the new open-sourceRobotic Operating System (ROS), which operates sensorsand actuators in the robot, relies on computation anddata processing in the cloud rather than on an internalcomputer.The new robotics is no longer the encaged industrialrobot of the twentieth century, engaged in repetitivemotions assembling vehicles and other heavy machinery.Robots are increasingly turning up everywherefrom software agents in cyberspace to robotic carson highways. Though still relatively primitive, theserobotic platforms have evolved at a rate over the lastfour decades similar to that plotted by Moore’s Lawfor microchips. The future is one of ever smarter, morecapable—and dramatically less expensive—robotsinserting themselves into every corner of people’s lives. 13Self-driving cars, a form of robotic vehicle, are likely to13 Robert A. Manning, “Rising Robotics and the Third IndustrialRevolution,” Atlantic Council, June 2013, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/issue-briefs/rising-robotics-andthe-third-industrial-revolution.ATLANTIC COUNCIL 10


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It Fasterbe available commercially before 2020. Their impact onsociety could be a sharp reduction in driving accidentsand fatalities, some 90 percent of which are due tohuman error. Second- and third-order effects couldinclude a radical change in how humans use cars, as wellthe transportation infrastructure and urban land use.Vehicles now use 60 percent of urban land for drivingand parking, but cars on demand summoned by appscould be in constant use, drastically reducing the needfor parking spaces as well as the overall number of cars.Today, for example, personal vehicles are idle 90 percentof the time. Even so, such personal-use vehicles takingpeople directly between desired starting and end pointsmight be more efficient than the most efficient publictransport. This could in turn lead to a redesign of citiesOVER TIME, ROBOTS WILLDISPLACE WORKERS IN CALLCENTERS, DRIVING TRUCKS,PICKING AND PACKING FRUITAND VEGETABLES, MAKINGMEDICAL DIAGNOSES,ANALYZING REAMS OF LEGALDOCUMENTS, AND CARING FORTHE ELDERLY.and a transformation of urban life styles.Ever more capable robots will yield dramaticproductivity gains that could eliminate countlessblue-collar and white-collar jobs and possibly entireprofessions. 14 Over time, robots will displace workersin call centers, driving trucks, picking and packing fruitand vegetables, making medical diagnoses, analyzingreams of legal documents, and caring for the elderly.This constantly evolving ecosystem will dislocate aswell as enhance lives, especially through “technologicalunemployment.” In what economist and technologyexpert Brian Arthur calls the “second economy,” jobs willdisappear into the digital realm rather than being simplymoved offshore.14 Lydia DePillis, “Eight Ways Robots Stole Our Jobs in 2013,”Wonkblog, Washington Post, December 23, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/23/eight-ways-robots-stole-our-jobs-in-2013/.This trend could continue indefinitely, exacerbatingother technological trends set in motion by the ThirdIndustrial Revolution. A recent McKinsey report assertedthat “advances in artificial intelligence, machine learningand natural user interfaces are making it possible toautomate many knowledge worker tasks that have longbeen regarded as impossible or impractical for machinesto perform.” Apart from low-level jobs, many mid-leveljobs have also been eliminated by information andcommunications technology in the past two decades.More mid-level job destruction is likely in the future.Will technological unemployment further exacerbatethe wealth gap as the talented few supporting theautomated, digital economy as well as company ownersaccrue an increasing percentage of the wealth, whilethe unemployed and underemployed of the middle classsee their relative income fall? Some 80 percent of the4 percent global decline in the share of gross domesticproduct (GDP) going to labor in the labor-capital splitis the result of the impact of new technology. 15 Will thistrend be reversed by the creation of far more good,high-paying jobs than are being lost? Or, will the greatsocial issue before mid-century, at least in the developedworld, be what will replace the notion of work as thecentral activity that provides citizens with income,health care, and, ultimately, meaning?3D Printing Life: The SynbioRevolutionSynthetic biology and bioengineering also build on theconvergence of a wide range of technologies leadingto the development of new, previously unimaginabletechnological capabilities that likely will have a widerange of second-, third-, and even fourth-order effectson society. Advances in synthetic biology, like those in3D printing, robotics, and so many other technologies,have been enabled by a combination of a wide rangeof other emerging technologies. A 2013 report by theNational Research Council (NRC) and National Academyof Engineering (NAE) notes that “while synthetic biologyarises from a century’s work in biology and relatedfields . . . its practice would not be possible withoutbreakthroughs in such diverse fields as engineering,15 The Economist cites a new Organization for Economic Cooperationand Development (OECD) study reporting that since the 1990s,labor’s share of GDP globally has dropped to 62 percent from over66 percent, with 80 percent of the drop due to technology. “LabourPains,” Economist, November 2, 2013, http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21588900-all-around-world-labourlosing-out-capital-labour-pains.11 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterAn Organovo bioprinter used for printing human liver tissue for toxicity testing. Organovo, a startup public company based in San Diego,California, is engaged in research and development aimed at bioprinting human organ replacements using the patient’s own cells to preventrejection and to eliminate long waits for donor organs. Image credit: Banning Garrett.computer science, and information technology.” 16 Thereport emphasizes that “progress in computer andInternet technology revolutionized the ability to processand transfer data and provided ideas and methods forhow to manage complexity when engineering multicomponentintegrated systems. Calculations that onlya decade ago would have taken weeks on a mainframecomputer now take minutes: a gene sequence may beprocessed on a laptop.” 17In the new synthetic biology age, people will be ableto edit their DNA like software in a computer. CraigVenter, who led the private effort to map the humangenome and created the first synthetic organism, hastermed this “digital life.” 18 The bioengineered digitalfile could represent the DNA of an existing organism,16 US National Academy of Engineering and National ResearchCouncil, Positioning Synthetic Biology to Meet the Challenges of the21st Century: Summary Report of a Six Academies Symposium Series(Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2013), http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13316.17 Ibid, pp. 9-10.18 Roger Highfield, “J. Craig Venter Sequenced the Human Genome.Now He Wants to Convert DNA into a Digital Signal,” Wired,November 7, 2013, http://www.wired.co.uk/magazine/archive/2013/11/features/j-craig-venter-interview. Venteraddresses this in greater detail in his new book, Life at the Speed ofLight: From the Double Helix to the Dawn of Digital Life (New York:Viking, 2013).an altered form of that organism, or an entirely neworganism created from DNA. The NRC-NAE reportexplained that “synthetic biologists have the ability todesign genetic code to elicit a specific function, pre-testthe code for functionality using computer modeling,order the relevant genetic material from a commercialor open-source gene synthesis facility, and insert thematerial into a cell body in order to test real worldfunctionality.” 19There will be no need to build a new organism fromscratch. The 3D/4D printing process allows the designerof a synbio product to work with preexisting modules ofthe product. Synthetic biologists can work, for example,with BioBricks that can be bought and downloaded.BioBricks are DNA constructs of different functioningparts that can be assembled to create new life forms to19 US National Academy of Engineering and National ResearchCouncil, Positioning Synthetic Biology to Meet the Challenges of the21st Century, p. 10.ATLANTIC COUNCIL 12


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It Fasterperform specific functions. 20 The building-block deviseddesign can be sent to a bioprinter that will assemble thegenetic material (plastics, metals, etc., in a conventional3D printer) to create a new life form. The creator of theorganism won’t need to know how each of the BioBricksworks—just as the designer of a 3D printed object doesnot have to be a software engineer—but only trainedto use software to design the object on a computer andPERHAPS EVEN MOREASTOUNDING THAN THE ABILITYTO DIGITIZE AND BIOPRINT LIFEIS THAT THIS DIGITAL LIFE CANBE TRANSMITTED OVER THEINTERNET AND THE ORGANISMRECREATED ANYWHERE ON THEPLANET.send it to the printer.Perhaps even more astounding than the ability todigitize and bioprint life is that this digital life canbe transmitted over the Internet and the organismrecreated anywhere on the planet. Or, as Venter adds,digital life can be used to recreate organisms found onMars by digitizing their DNA and transmitting the fileback to Earth. And perhaps it might even be possibleto send digital files of life-saving drugs to a futuregeneration of human colonists on the Red Planet. Ina global pandemic, synbio could both greatly reducethe time required to develop a vaccine and then sendthe digitized vaccine sequence around the world to bebioprinted for immediate use.As the Internet and 3D/4D printing before it, synbiomay dramatically change the world. Combined, thesetechnologies will change what we can make, how wemake it, where we make it, and what materials we useto make it. There are huge potentials for sustainability20 The BioBricks Foundation (http://biobricks.org/) maintains aregistry of a growing collection of genetic parts that can be mixedand matched to build synthetic biology devices and systems.BioBrick standard biological parts are DNA sequences of definedstructure and function that share a common interface and aredesigned to be incorporated into living cells such as E. coli toconstruct new biological systems. Many of these parts are createdthrough the International Genetic Engineered MachineCompetition (iGEM) of young scientists and engineers.(i.e., recycling amino acids). Drew Endy, a bioengineeringprofessor at Stanford University, calculates that geneticengineering and synthetic biology already contributeabout 2 percent to US GDP and predicts a near-termsynbio-generated technological and economic boomcomparable to the impact of the Internet earlier in thiscentury. 21Craig Venter says genetically engineered organismscan be created for biofuels, water purification, textiles,food sources, and bioremediation. British scientist andarchitect Rachel Armstrong foresees synbio-developed“protocells” transforming architecture and cities to makethem more resilient and even positive contributors tothe environment. 22 “Instead of our buildings remaininginert, they could adapt to or respond to the seasons, likeparks and gardens, with living coatings responding tothe availability of more or less wind, sunlight and water.”The ease associated with bioengineering—and the lowcost and wide availability of materials and capabilities—has raised concerns about the potential dangers posedby synbio, especially the ability to alter viruses tobecome more deadly, or to create wholly new lethalmicroorganisms. Laurie Garrett, global health expertat the Council on Foreign Relations, noting that “theworld of biosynthesis is hooking up with 3D printing,”points out that scientists in one city designing a geneticsequence on a computer can send the code to a printersomewhere else. The code might be the creation of alife-saving medicine or vaccine, Garrett asserts, “or itmight be information that turns the tiny phi X174 virus. . . into something that kills human cells, or makes nastybacteria resistant to antibiotics, or creates some entirelynew viral strain.” 23 The challenge ahead will be todevelop a security strategy that minimizes the dangersposed by dual use without undermining development ofthe field. 2421 Cited by Laurie Garrett, “Biology’s Brave New World—BeHappy—And Worry,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2013,p. 36.22 Rachel Armstrong, Living Architecture: How Synthetic Biology CanRemake Our Cities and Reshape Our Lives, (TED Books: February 6,2013), Kindle edition.23 Garrett, op. cit., p. 38.24 Laurie Garrett, “Staying Safe in a Biology Revolution,” July 11,2013, Council on Foreign Relations video, http://www.cfr.org/technology-and-science/staying-safe-biology-revolution/p31087.The availability of cheap polymerase chain reactions could lead to“home brewed” lethal viruses that could unleash a global pandemicfor which there was no antidote or vaccine.13 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterA do-it-yourself quadracopter drone at Singularity University, located at NASA Research Park, Moffett Field, California, that could carry a cameraor a small cargo. Photo credit: Banning Garrett.The Individual Empowered by MobileComputing Power and ConnectivityThe individual is increasingly the focal point oftechnology, both as the target of marketing campaignsand surveillance by others, and as a collector andprocessor of data. The individual wields ever-increasingcomputing and communications power on mobiledevices that provide tentacles of outreach to and inputfrom almost the entire world. 25 While such power wasunimaginable even a decade ago, it is only the beginningof what is likely to be possible in coming decades.Moreover, the individual is increasingly enmeshedin a vast and rapidly evolving milieu of technology.Billions of devices, including computers, smartphones,25 A UN report said that by 2014 there would be more than sevenbillion mobile phones, or more than one for every person on theplanet. The report also predicted that by the end of 2013, therewould be more than 2.1 billion mobile broadband subscribers,triple the number of fixed broadband connections. “Broadband isintroducing new ways of doing things across our personal andprofessional lives, in the many and varied ways we communicate—integrating information infrastructure into the world around usthrough seamless, always-on connectivity delivering a range ofservices simultaneously.” Broadband Commission, The State ofBroadband 2013: Universalizing Broadband (Geneva: September2013), http://www.broadbandcommission.org/Documents/bb-annualreport2013.pdf.sensors, machines, and even the natural environment,are wired together and connected to people through the“Internet of Things.” This will affect nearly all aspectsof life, although much of this interconnectivity will beinvisible or “taken for granted.” 26 People are becominghybrid beings for whom technology is increasingly anextension of themselves, through devices that are almostphysical extensions of their bodies. These devices willbecome ever more “wearable” in the future with smartglasses, smart watches, and smart clothing. GoogleGlass has already demonstrated the potential poweravailable “hands free” to the individual with the abilityto access data available such as that on smartphones orspecific information on a patient, technical procedure,or account. The information can be called up by voicecommand or a wink and be visible to the wearersuperimposed on “reality.” 27Other companies are also developing wearable26 Banning Garrett, “Big Data Is Changing Your World…More ThanYou Know,” Atlantic Council, August 2013, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/Big_Data_is_Changing_Your_World.pdf; Neil Gershenfeld and JP Vasseur, “As Objects GoOnline,” Foreign Affairs, March-April 2014, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2014/93/2.27 For an example of this capability in action, see Klint Finley, “GoogleGlass Does Solar Panel Installs in the California Sun,” Wired,December 23, 2013, http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/12/sullivan-solar/.ATLANTIC COUNCIL 14


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterOculus RiftOculus Rift went from a crowd-funded Kickstarter concept to a $2 billion Facebook acquisition inthe space of just over eighteen months. This photo shows video screen displays of the images foreach eye seen in an Oculus Rift headset. By streaming two simultaneous instances of video withslightly offset images through the Oculus’ two display pieces (one for each eye), the wearer’s entirefield of view is immersed in 3D virtual reality. Photo credit: Banning Garrett.computing devices. Intel, for instance, unveiled Edison, a“full Pentium-class PC in the form factor of an SD card.” Itis used to power a monitoring system that can be clippedto an infant’s clothing to track heart rate, breathing, andmovements, and transmit the data at regular intervalsas status updates. 28 And as individuals interact withothers and the environment, smart devices could alsobe actively interacting and exchanging information withother smart devices.As with all things connected to the Internet, the everlurkingthreat of the malicious hacking of the Internetof Things hangs over these devices, especially cheapsensors or wearable gadgets that have virtually nobuilt-in security measures to protect them. Individualsor small groups could reprogram these devices—including control systems in (driverless) cars, planes,28 Sebastian Anthony, “CES 2014: Intel Abandons Smartphones,Focuses on Wearable Computing and Tablets,” ExtremeTech.com,January 7, 2014, http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/174168-ces-2014-intel-abandons-the-smartphone-ship-focuses-onwearable-computing-and-tablets.and drones—for destructive or nefarious purposes. 29 Nosooner had Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos announcedplans to deliver small packages via drones, when a wellknownhacker released technical plans for an interceptordrone capable of hijacking other drones. 30Although new technology gives the individualunprecedented and increasing power and knowledge,corporations and governments can also use this sametechnology to violate individuals’ privacy and civilrights. Companies like Google and Facebook provide freeservices to individuals, but the price for these servicesis the acquisition of massive amounts of personal29 Peter Haynes and Thomas A. Campbell, “Hacking the Internet ofThings,” ScientificAmerican.com, August 13, 2013, http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=hacking-internet-ofeverything.30 Matthew J. Schwartz, “Hardware Hacker Demos Zombie DoneHijacker,” InformationWeek.com, December 2013, http://www.informationweek.com/security/vulnerabilities-and-threats/hardware-hacker-demos-zombie-drone-hijacker/d/d-id/1112913.15 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It Fasterdata, often unwittingly. 31 The state, too, has access totechnology that lets it gather information on specificindividuals. This capability ranges from increasinglyubiquitous closed-circuit television (CCTV) powered byenhanced facial recognition software to massive datagathering on individuals by the National Security Agency(NSA).Today, government agencies use powerful algorithms totarget individuals by discovering connections betweentelephone calls, bank account records, tweets, Facebookpostings, Google searches, YouTube videos, and physicalmovements tracked by GPS applications on theirsmartphones. In extreme cases, the state can—as theUS government already has done—target individuals orsmall groups for elimination through kinetic attacks bydrones. The tension between individual privacy rightsand government information-gathering and surveillanceis likely to continue indefinitely, with the two sides oftenengaged in a virtual arms race as citizens and companiestry to prevent government snooping, and with thegovernment employing more technology and resourcesto maintain and increase its access.The Future Is Unevenly Distributed“The future is already here—it’s just not very evenlydistributed,” science fiction writer William Gibsonfamously quipped two decades ago. 32 He made animportant point: disruptive technologies and theirmultiple orders of impact on society develop at differentpaces within societies and globally. Electric vehicles(EV), for example, are already on the road. The allelectricTesla Model S is the highest rated automobile byConsumer Reports in history. 33 Tesla currently producesonly a handful of cars per year, and they cost anywhere31 Jaron Lanier, in Who Owns the Future? (New York: Penguin Books,2013), maintains that users should be paid for the data theyprovide Google, Facebook, and other Internet companies whosebusiness model and profits are based on use of the massiveamounts of accumulated user data.32 “Science Fiction Writer William Gibson,” Fresh Air, NPR, August 31,1993.33 “Slipping behind the wheel of the Tesla Model S is like crossing intoa promising zero-emissions future. This electric luxury sports car,built by a small automaker based in Palo Alto, California, isbrimming with innovation, delivers world-class performance, andis interwoven throughout with impressive attention to detail. It’swhat Marty McFly might have brought back in place of hisDeLorean in Back to the Future. The sum total of that effort hasearned the Model S the highest score in our Ratings: 99 out of 100.”“Tesla Model S Review,” Consumer Reports, July 2013, http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/magazine/2013/07/tesla-model-sreview/index.htm.from $60,000 to $100,000—far too expensive for mostconsumers. However, the Model S may be the harbingerof future personal transportation throughout the worldover the next two to three decades.The widespread use of EVs—and eventually self-drivingvehicles—may have a profound impact on society.The auto industry’s transformation could create newwinners and losers of corporations and workers.Reduced demand for gasoline will hurt not only the oilindustry from well to pump, but also the economic andgeopolitical status of oil-producing countries, possiblyleading to the fall of autocratic regimes. Demand forelectricity production, smart grid connections, anddistributed solar and wind power would all likely rise.The reduction in carbon emissions could slow thetrajectory of global warming and pressure societies totransition faster to electric-vehicle production.THE ALL-ELECTRIC TESLAMODEL S IS THE HIGHEST RATEDAUTOMOBILE BY CONSUMERREPORTS IN HISTORY.But then again, maybe the future is not the EV, whichcould remain a niche player with a slow increase indemand as major auto companies do not follow Tesla’slead and special interests that have everything to losein the transition oppose government assistance tothe nascent EV industry. Moreover, other technologycould slow the pace of EV development. Gas prices mayremain low due to new technology enabling captureof previously unrecoverable shale oil. The extractionof this previously inaccessible oil is already occurringand is likely to continue for years if not decades. Newtechnology in one area—energy extraction—could affectthe deployment and impact of technology in anotherrealm—electric vehicles.A more serious “uneven distribution” of the futurecould be in the area of human augmentation, includingcognitive enhancement. There is concern that this wouldadd a new layer of technological capabilities to enhancethe power and income of those already privileged. Newtechnologies could potentially be monopolized by a“ruling class” that seeks to use its advantages to furtherenhance its position, further widening the growinginequality gap in nearly all countries.ATLANTIC COUNCIL 16


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It FasterOn the other hand, human enhancement technologiesmay rapidly spread throughout societies globally, justas the PC democratized computing, the mobile phonedemocratized communication, and smartphones aredemocratizing Internet access. New ICT capabilitiesthat will further augment humans through accessto information, communications, sensors, location,computing power, etc., may spread so rapidly that anyadvantage of the rich is both relative and transient.In this scenario, technological change would neitherreinforce class divisions nor strengthen the politicalpower of the wealthy.On the contrary, in this future, technology would helplevel the playing field. Many of these technologies maybe extremely cheap and plentiful, and much if not mostof the information they access and produce is “free” dueto the marginal cost of information distribution in thedigital age. When one downloads a document, there isno additional cost of production other than the amountalready invested in a computer and the cost of Internetaccess. A million electronic copies cost no more to makethan ten electronic copies. But in the material world,every additional item produced has costs in materials,production, and distribution. Although the rich have anadvantage when it comes to the acquisition of materialgoods such as big houses and expensive cars that otherscannot afford, they have no such advantage in accessto “free” information available to virtually everyone. Soperhaps the initially uneven distribution of the future inthe area of human augmentation could produce a futurecharacterized by more equal distribution of knowledgeand power. 34The uneven distribution of the future extends to thedeveloping world where new technology innovationsare transforming economies. In many poor countries,relatively underdeveloped and outmoded infrastructurecould spur new technology-enabled innovations thatallow countries to leapfrog old technologies, as themobile phone has spread rapidly, bypassing the stage ofwired telephone systems. The new technology-enabledteaching models, such as the Khan Academy, Udemy, andthe many university-sponsored MOOCs (massive openonline courses), often free or inexpensive, will enablecountries to rapidly educate their populations withoutthe huge investment and time-consuming constructionof “bricks and mortar” educational institutions andthe transport infrastructure needed to get studentsphysically to the place of education. As they seek outof necessity to exploit these technologies to leapfrogstages of development in education infrastructure, thesecountries may also become a source of new innovationsin education that are exported back to the developedworld.ALTHOUGH THE RICH HAVEAN ADVANTAGE WHEN ITCOMES TO THE ACQUISITIONOF MATERIAL GOODS SUCH ASBIG HOUSES AND EXPENSIVECARS THAT OTHERS CANNOTAFFORD, THEY HAVE NOSUCH ADVANTAGE IN ACCESSTO “FREE” INFORMATIONAVAILABLE TO VIRTUALLYEVERYONE.In the future, transportation infrastructure, 3Dprinting, 35 and new energy technologies also may findtheir most innovative uses in developing countries.Developing world efforts to harness new medicaltechnologies and innovations to provide better healthcare at lower costs may provide models for addressingever-higher global healthcare costs. Some developingworld innovations have already found their way to thedeveloped world, such as Ushahidi, a website initiallycreated in the aftermath of Kenya’s disputed 2007presidential election. Ushahidi (Swahili for “testimony”or “witness”) collected eyewitness reports of violence34 Jeremy Rifkin, The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet ofThings, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism(New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014). Rifkin argues that theworld economy is moving toward zero marginal cost productionnot only in the digital realm but also in energy production such assolar power, which is marginally free, and even production ofgoods via 3D printing and other mechanisms. See also commentson Rifkin’s thesis by Banning Garrett, “Moving to Zero,” HuffingtonPost, April 3, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/banninggarrett/moving-to-zero_b_5079238.html?1396528010.35 Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler suggest that with 3D printing,powered by cheap cloud computing, design, and manufacturing,can be globally democratized. “Suddenly an invention developed inChina can be perfected in India, then printed and utilized in Brazilon the same day—giving the developing world a poverty-fightingmechanism unlike anything yet seen.” Abundance: The Future isBetter Than You Think (New York: Free Press, 2012), p. 70. See also“3D Printing Brings New Promise for Developing World,” Techtonics(blog), Voice of America, December 20, 2013, http://blogs.voanews.com/techtonics/2013/12/20/3-d-printing-brings-new-promisefor-developing-world/.17 ATLANTIC COUNCIL


Technology Will Keep Changing Everything—and Will Do It Fasterreported by text message and placed incidents ona Google map. Today, Ushahidi’s platform is widelyused not only throughout the developing world, butalso in the United States and Europe for a wide rangeof purposes, from election monitoring and protestorganizing to disaster relief coordination. The unevendistribution of the future may result in new uses ofemerging technologies with accompanying innovativebusiness models that spread from South to North andSouth to South as well as from niches to the broadersociety within both developed and developing countries.Alternative FuturesExperts can foresee the trajectories of some technologieswith a certain level of confidence. Computers willbecome faster, smaller, more connected, and moreubiquitous. Robots, of both the physical and digitalvarieties, will be increasingly ubiquitous in people’seconomic and personal lives. Both the individual and theorganization (whether business or the state) will haveaccess to more digital power. 3D printing will empowerthe individual to become a digital-to-material creator,and the same technology will transform manufacturingand many other industries. Synthetic biology will notonly impact health care and medicine but also industryand the environment. Nanotechnology will continueto improve the ability to manipulate matter at themolecular level across almost all areas of materialinvention.3D PRINTING WILL EMPOWERTHE INDIVIDUAL TO BECOMEA DIGITAL-TO-MATERIALCREATOR, AND THESAME TECHNOLOGY WILLTRANSFORM MANUFACTURINGAND MANY OTHER INDUSTRIES.More generally, technological convergence will spurnew, unexpected developments, while new scientificdiscoveries will likely further upend our technologicalfuture. One of those “upending” technologicalbreakthroughs is likely to be quantum computing, whichwill transform people’s ability to understand the worldand solve problems currently insoluble by even thefastest conventional computers crunching numbers forhundreds or thousands of years. 36In short, we can already identify the outlines of a hugearray of technological developments, although wecannot predict with certainty whether these will cometo fruition as major innovations and, if they do, whenthat would occur. It is even more difficult to foreseehow societies will use new technology and its second-,third-, and fourth-order effects. Will new technologybe harnessed to meet global challenges such as climatechange and energy transition and growing demands forfood and water? Will new technology create more jobsthan it destroys? Will it lead to more wealth for all orfurther exacerbate growing inequality? Will individuals,groups, or governments use it for destructive purposes,including bioterrorism, cyber warfare, and roboticattacks? Will it advance democracy or authoritarianism?Will it enhance prospects for global prosperity andcooperation or lead to new conflict and zero-sumcompetition?These questions about technology’s impact on societyunderscore the inherent unpredictability of the future,which depends on decisions not yet made by individuals,groups, and governments. In short, the future does notpassively “happen” but is the result of choice—billions ofindividual and collective choices. An infinite number ofalternative futures can be chosen and shaped.Preparing for the uncertain and unevenly distributedfuture puts great demands on governments, businesses,organizations, and individuals. One relative certaintyis that the future will not simply be a continuation ofthe present. Surprising and abrupt changes will beincreasingly commonplace. Preparing for the disruptiveand unexpected—and shaping the future we want—willrequire agility, resilience, and anticipation of alternativefutures.36 Quantum computers will not just be faster, but will approachproblem solving in a fundamentally different way. Instead ofdecryption, where billions or trillions of possible combinationsneed to be tested sequentially, a quantum computer could try allcombinations simultaneously to find the key. One simulation byMicrosoft indicated that a factoring problem that would take31,000 years to solve on a conventional computer could be resolvedin a matter of seconds on a quantum computer. When quantumcomputers become available, much, if not most, currentencryption, including on the Internet, will be subject to nearlyinstantaneous decryption. Quantum computers could also mark anew age in solving intractable problems. A quantum computercould simultaneously explore thousands of possible molecularcombinations for a new material or drug to find the bestcombination in short order. These could include such challenges ascreating a room temperature superconductor or accurately and indetail modeling climate change. Although the first quantumcomputers will be very large, they could eventually be very smalland provide immense new power to individuals and the Internet ofThings.ATLANTIC COUNCIL 18


Atlantic Council Board of DirectorsCHAIRMAN*Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.CHAIRMAN,INTERNATIONALADVISORY BOARDBrent ScowcroftPRESIDENT AND CEO*Frederick KempeEXECUTIVEVICE CHAIRS*Adrienne Arsht*Stephen J. HadleyVICE CHAIRS*Robert J. Abernethy*Richard Edelman*C. Boyden Gray*George Lund*Virginia A. Mulberger*W. DeVier Pierson*John StudzinskiTREASURER*Brian C. McK. HendersonSECRETARY*Walter B. SlocombeDIRECTORSStephane AbrialOdeh AburdenePeter AckermanTimothy D. AdamsJohn AllenMichael AnderssonMichael AnsariRichard L. ArmitageDavid D. AufhauserElizabeth F. BagleyPeter Bass*Rafic Bizri*Thomas L. BlairFrancis BouchardMyron BrilliantEsther Brimmer*R. Nicholas Burns*Richard R. BurtMichael CalveyJames E. CartwrightJohn E. ChapotonAhmed CharaiSandra CharlesGeorge ChopivskyWesley K. ClarkDavid W. Craig*Ralph D. Crosby, Jr.Nelson CunninghamIvo H. DaalderGregory R. Dahlberg*Paula J. DobrianskyChristopher J. DoddConrado DornierPatrick J. DurkinThomas J. EdelmanThomas J. Egan, Jr.*Stuart E. EizenstatThomas R. EldridgeJulie FinleyLawrence P. Fisher, IIAlan H. FleischmannMichèle Flournoy*Ronald M. FreemanLaurie Fulton*Robert S. GelbardThomas Glocer*Sherri W. GoodmanMikael HagströmIan HagueJohn D. Harris IIFrank HaunMichael V. HaydenAnnette Heuser*Karl HopkinsRobert Hormats*Mary L. HowellRobert E. HunterWolfgang IschingerReuben Jeffery, IIIRobert Jeffrey*James L. Jones, Jr.George A. JoulwanLawrence S. KanarekStephen R. KappesMaria Pica KarpFrancis J. Kelly, Jr.Zalmay M. KhalilzadRobert M. KimmittHenry A. KissingerFranklin D. KramerPhilip Lader*Richard L. Lawson*Jan M. LodalJane Holl LuteWilliam J. LynnIzzat MajeedWendy W. MakinsMian M. ManshaWilliam E. MayerAllan McArtorEric D.K. MelbyFranklin C. MillerJames N. Miller*Judith A. Miller*Alexander V. MirtchevObie L. Moore*George E. MooseGeorgette MosbacherSteve C. NicandrosThomas R. NidesFranco NuscheseJoseph S. NyeSean O’KeefeHilda Ochoa-BrillembourgAhmet Oren*Ana PalacioCarlos PascualThomas R. PickeringDaniel B. PonemanDaniel M. Price*Andrew ProzesArnold L. Punaro*Kirk A. RadkeTeresa M. ResselCharles O. RossottiStanley O. RothRobert RowlandHarry SachinisWilliam O. SchmiederJohn P. SchmitzBrent ScowcroftAlan J. SpenceJames StavridisRichard J.A. Steele*Paula SternRobert J. StevensJohn S. TannerPeter J. Tanous*Ellen O. TauscherKaren TramontanoClyde C. TugglePaul TwomeyMelanne VerveerEnzo ViscusiCharles F. WaldJay WalkerMichael F. WalshMark R. WarnerDavid A. WilsonMaciej WituckiMary C. YatesDov S. ZakheimHONORARY DIRECTORSDavid C. AchesonMadeleine K. AlbrightJames A. Baker, IIIHarold BrownFrank C. Carlucci, IIIRobert M. GatesMichael G. MullenLeon E. PanettaWilliam J. PerryColin L. PowellCondoleezza RiceEdward L. RownyGeorge P. ShultzJohn W. WarnerWilliam H. Webster*Executive Committee MembersList as of April 21, 2015


The Atlantic Council is a nonpartisan organization that promotes constructive US leadershipand engagement in international affairs based on the central role of the Atlantic community inmeeting today’s global challenges.© 2015 The Atlantic Council of the United States. All rights reserved. No part of this publicationmay be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writingfrom the Atlantic Council, except in the case of brief quotations in news articles, critical articles,or reviews. Please direct inquiries to:Atlantic Council1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC 20005(202) 463-7226, www.AtlanticCouncil.org

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