Winter 2010 - Project Ploughshares

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14An Afghan worker from Kandahar Citytakes a moment from mixing mortarfor a building project. Credit: MasterCorporal Angela Abbey / CanadianDepartment of National Defence.of India in some regionsof Afghanistan.India’s growinginvolvement inAfghanistan can also beseen as advancing morespecific strategic goals.For one, Afghanistan isgeographically positionedto serve as a viable accessroute for energy comingfrom Central Asia. Thisis increasingly importantas India takes steps tofoster greater energycooperation in the region,including a signed memorandumof understandingwith Turkmenistan todevelop a natural gaspipeline (Gundu &Schaffer 2008).One of India’s majorinfrastructure initiativeshas been to constructa highway linkingAfghanistan’s ring roadto Iranian ports on thePersian Gulf. This highwaycould effectivelyreduce, if not eliminate,Afghanistan’s currentdependence, as a land-locked state, on Pakistan for seaaccess (Rubin & Rashid 2008).Where does Pakistan fit?Some also see India’s involvement in Afghanistan as aneffort to displace or counterbalance Pakistan’s influence inthe country, which some elements within Afghanistan welcome(Bajoria 2009). India has strong ties to the so-calledNorthern Alliance. Many of its leaders were educated inIndia, including Afghan President Hamid Karzai (Bajoria2009).As India’s power in Afghanistan expands, especiallyits soft power, Pakistan is losing its position of economicand strategic privilege. In its place is a power with possiblyhostile intentions against it. For example, India’s reconstructionand development projects through Afghanistan’sPashtun belt are seen as ways of fomenting separatistmovements in Pakistan.Pakistan sees India’s growing influence, particularlyits consular presence in Afghanistan, as a threat. Shortlyafter the fall of the Taliban, India reestablished severalconsulates. While India has legitimate consular interestsin Afghanistan – Hindu and Sikh populations, commercialrelations, and aid programs – there is some speculation byPakistan that India has also been using these consulatesas a cover for its intelligence agencies to carry out covertoperations. Islamabad believes that India is colluding withAfghan officials to stoke Baloch separatism in Pakistan(Gundu & Schaffer 2008).There have been small successes in resolving someconcerns. The Pakistan Foreign Office is said to havestated in Parliament that they had received informationon the staffing of Indian consulates in Afghanistan and nolonger suspected India of using its consulates as bases forcovert activities (Delhi Policy Group 2009). What’s more,some retired Pakistani officials are willing to state, off therecord, that it is to be expected that any country will havesome operatives based in consulates and that the reactionto this in Pakistan has been disproportionate to the actualthreat.Strategic depth andencirclement in South AsiaFor decades India and Pakistan have contended forfavourable positions within Afghanistan. Throughoutthis struggle, Pakistan has seen Afghanistan as a vitalsource of “strategic depth.” In early 2010, General Kayani,Pakistan’s Chief of the Defence Staff, stated that “a peacefuland friendly Afghanistan can provide Pakistan a strategicdepth” (Hussain 2010). Though the meaning of thisterm has changed over time, its persistence in Pakistan’sstrategic vocabulary evokes Pakistan’s perception of relationswith Afghanistan as a way to defend against otheroutside forces. Although Gen. Kayani was clear that“strategic depth” must not be confused with “control,”Afghans remain highly sensitive to such language.Pakistan’s military establishment has long viewed itsengagement in Afghanistan largely from the context ofits struggle against India. Thus India’s growing presencein Afghanistan contributes to Pakistan’s fears of encirclement.India’s establishment of its first overseas air basein nearby Farkhor, Tajikistan has further aggravated suchfears (Gundu & Schaffer 2008).Afghan employees from Kandahar City build a new Afghan NationalPolice Training Centre. Credit: Master Corporal Angela Abbey / CanadianDepartment of National Defence.The Ploughshares Monitor I Winter 2010
Pakistan’s behind-the-scenessupport for the Taliban is believedto be rooted, in large part, in itsconcern that India is attempting toencircle it by gaining influence inAfghanistan. The Taliban is thoughtto offer Pakistan its best chance atneutralizing India’s regional powerexpansion (Pakistan Policy WorkingGroup 2010). This support has led toincreased instability in Afghanistan,both through heightened terroristactivity and increased opium cultivation(Bajoria 2009). It has also furthercomplicated the international effortsat reconstruction as well as intensifiedthe strain on the already tenuousAfghanistan-Pakistan relationship.As calls for a ‘Grand Bargain’ increasinglyinclude the Taliban, Pakistan’sties with its various strands willbecome all the more relevant.Some commentators have referredto Afghanistan and Pakistan as “conjoinedtwins,” not simply because oftheir complicated history, but alsobecause the ties between the two havebrought about many adverse effects.Consider, for example, the securitythreats linked to the porous borderand the significant costs that Pakistanhas taken on in accommodatingmillions of Afghan refugees.Looking forwardThis past summer saw some encouragingdevelopments. In July, as aresult of high-level talks, HamidKarzai announced that a group ofmilitary officers would travel toPakistan for training. This representsa significant symbolic shift inrelations between the two countries.In that same month Pakistan andAfghanistan finalized a transit tradeagreement, which would allow thetransport of goods along a land routethrough Pakistan to India.While these developments constituteimportant modifications ineach country’s position, they must beviewed in light of longstanding strategicpriorities and fears, especiallythose of Pakistan. If Pakistan stillbelieves that it is facing a perpetuallyhostile regional security environment,enduring peacebuilding strategies arenot likely to emerge.The greatest challenge lies inachieving cooperation between Indiaand Pakistan in Afghanistan. Thiswould require that India and Pakistanovercome longstanding political andpsychological barriers (Maley 2009,p. 90) through direct engagement. Ata minimum, they could discuss howbest to stay out of each other’s wayin Afghanistan. More ambitiously,they could usefully engage in a discussionof the best channels – bilateral,trilateral, or regional – throughwhich to address various governancechallenges. This discussion couldalso identify modest ways in whichIndia and Pakistan might align theirefforts, if not collaborate in achievingcommon goals. The initiation offormal engagement could chart theway to improved and increasinglytransparent relations and ultimately amore stable Afghanistan.Many experts and expert bodieshave pointed out that an opportunityexists to move forward on a richagenda of regional cooperation onmatters, including water management,energy security, and economiccooperation. 1 But the parameters offuture cooperation are being set nowthrough the bilateral maneuveringsof regional players, most importantlyIndia and Pakistan.Note1. See, for example, Maley 2009.ReferencesBajoria, Jayshree. 2009. India-Afghanistanrelations. Council on Foreign RelationsBackgrounder, July 22. http://www.cfr.org/publication/17474/indiaafghanistan_relations.html.Delhi Policy Group. 2009. Afghanistan-India-Pakistan Trialogue: A Report. www.delhipolicygroup.com/pdf/Final%20Book%20-%20Afgh-Ind-Pak.pdf.Gundu, Raja Karthikeya & Teresita Schaffer.2008. India and Pakistan in Afghanistan:Hostile spots. CSIS South Asia Monitor. #117,April 3. http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/sam117.pdf.Hussain, Zahid. 2010. Kayani spells out termsfor regional stability. Dawn.com, February 2.http://news.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/06-pakistan-does-not-want-to-controlafghanistan-kayani-rs-02.Maley, William. 2009. Afghanistan and itsregion. In The Future of Afghanistan, editedJ. Alexander Thier, USIP: Washington, DC.Pakistan Policy Working Group. 2008. TheNext Chapter: The United States and Pakistan.http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2008/09_pakistan_cohen.aspx.Rubin, Barnett R. & Ahmed Rashid. 2008. Fromgreat game to grand bargain. Foreign Affairs,87:6, pp. 30-44.15Afghan employees from Kandahar City dig a trench to lay piping for the movementof potable water.Credit: Master Corporal Angela Abbey / Canadian Department ofNational Defence.Nicole Waintraubis an intern withProject Ploughshares.The Ploughshares Monitor I Winter 2010
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Page 22 and 23: 22Invest inpeaceIn advance of the G
Page 24: YourLegacyfor PeaceYou’ve dedicat

Winter 2010 - Project Ploughshares

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