This strategy assumes the use ofelectricityas the main power for most transport,backed with biofuels and on-board hydrogen.Where will it come from?
Can wegenerateenough green,sustainableelectricity?
First… How Much Energy Do We Need?1998 World primary energy production:Quads per person (US lifestyle)- 50% efficiency gain- 50% sustainable lifestyle gainPopulation in 20257.5 billion people at 0.85 quadsAssume reduction for slowerdevelopment in some countriesQuads3820.340.170.0857.5 billion637 quads400 quads400 quads = 117,000 TWh a year= 321 TWh per daySun’s solar energy: 96,000 TWh per day= 3,000 times more than we need2004 energy use: 120,000 TWh1 Quad = 1 quadrillion BTUs = 293 terawatt hoursWatt - Kilowatt - Megawatt - Gigawatt - Terawatt
There is great potential forsaving energyWith the best policies,tax credits, and incentives,we could reduce ourdemand for powerby 50%.
LED lightsonly use1 to 5 watts
Policies for Greater Energy Efficiency1. Public Benefit Charge on all power bills - use income tosupport energy efficiency rebates and retrofits2. Require utilities to purchase efficiency (“Negawatts”)from IPPs and commercial/industrial customers atsame price as new power.3. Ramp up appliance standards (eg California). GlobalTreaty.4. Use Power Smart type programs to assist low incomefamilies, and landlords.5. Green Building Code, applies to new buildings +whenever a house is sold or needs a building permit
Wind Energy:Global potential: EnormousKappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
2005: 60,000 MWGlobal potential: 72 million MW40 x today’s global power needs
Installed capacity:Germany:Spain:US:India:Canada:17,000 MW10,000 MW8,000 MW4,000 MW1,050 MWwww.canwea.org
Wind Force 12:Global blueprint for wind to supply12% of the world's electricity by 2020
Northern Quebec has enough wind to produce 40%of Canada's electricity needs.80% if everything was twice as efficient.BUT… it needs an east-west Green Power Corridor
Proposed Green Power CorridorsCorporate Knights, Nov 2006
North Dakota has enough wind to produce33% of all US electricity needs….66% if everything was twice as efficient.
Farmers do itwith humourwww.windustry.com
Offshore windBritain, Belgium, Holland, Germany & Denmark have3 x more capacity than their current power needs
Floating Air Turbines - a Proposal
Solar Energy - 40% growth pa50 cents/kWhGlobal Potential: enormous
The Price ofSolar PVSources :Powerlight (above)Solar Buzz Market Report (right)
12 kW solar shingles, Montana
The Solar FutureMuhlhausen Solar Farm, Bavaria, Germany10 MW, 9,000 homes, 30 acres
Solar PV WallFreiburg,Germany
Four Times SquareNew YorkSolar PV architecturalcladding, no extra cost
10% of Nevada, if covered with solar PV, couldproduce 100% of USA electricity needs.
5% of Manitoba, if covered with solar PV,could produce 100% of Canada’s electricity needs.
Every year, each square kilometre ofdesert receives solar energy equivalent to1.5 million barrels of oil.
Build solar thermal plants in the world’s deserts,and ship to the cities by HVDC Cable
Solar power plants occupying less than0.3% of North Africa/Middle East desert areacould provide 15% of Europe's electricity needsby 2050.
“Europe's CO2 emissions could be cut by 70%by 2050 if it combinedimports of clean electricity from the desertswith renewable local energy.”Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation May 3 2006
A Global Solar Purchase Treaty2004 global PV cell production: 1200 MW2005 global PV cell production: 1727 MW= 40% pa increaseJapan: + 833 MW (38% growth)Europe: +452 MW (44% growth)U.S.: + 153 MW (10% growth)Rest of the world: +289 MW (100% growth)2010201520202025Current growth@ 40% pa9,000 MW50,000 MW275,000 MW1,450,000 MW(+ 1.45 TW)With Treaty@ 60% pa18,000 MW190,000 MW2,000,000 MW20,000,000 MW(= 20 TW)How much do we need? 13 TW if solar provides 20%17 TW if solar provides 25% of the world’s energy
Six Other Ways to GenerateClean, SustainableElectricity…
Micro-hydro1-10 MW2-15 cents/kWh7% growth rate pa(Great return on investment)
Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power= 17% of the world’s people
Tidal energyBC’s potential:2,500 MWGlobal potential:18% of world’spower needs
Wave energy9 cents kWh500 kW Limpet, Islay, Scotland Pelamis, off Portugal
Biomass power5-12 cents/kWh
Biogas16 million household digesters12 - 20 cents kWhAnaerobic digestion and co-generation createselectricity, heat, and fertilizer
The Cost of Sustainable Energy is fallingWind (onshore)Wind (offshore)Solar PVWaveTidalBiomassGeothermalToday3 - 56 - 1020 - 808 - 208 - 155 - 152 - 10US cents perkWh20202 - 32 - 54 - 105 - 78 - 154 - 101 - 8
Tying it all Together: The Distributed GridBonneville Power Administration, WA
What About Coal?By 2012:China: 562 new plantsIndia: 213 new plantsUSA: 72 new plantsTotal: 327,000 MW1200 - 2700 MT of CO2a year for 60 years+ 58 other nationsare planning340 more plants
The Coal-Fired Inferno2700 MT of CO2a year =5 times morethan the plannedKyoto reductions… for 60 years
Clean Coal?Carbon Capture & Sequestration1. Separate the CO2 emissions from the waste gases2. Transport the CO2 by pipeline3. Bury it away underground, hopefully for ever4. But will it produce yet more CO2 from oil? (see 3)5. Will it pollute underground aquifers? (see 2)
Norway’s Statoil Sleipner CO2 sequestrationCost of CCS: $20 to $70 per tonne of CO2Norway’s carbon tax: $50 per tonne
“Clean Coal”Carbon Capture & SequestrationExisting projects:Algeria: In Salah Gas, 1 MT a year underground, EORCanada: 70 Enhanced Oilfield Recovery (EOR) projectsGermany: Ketzin, CO2 storage experiment (60,000 tonnes)Norway: Sleipner underground storage (since 1996)CO2 Capture Projects: 8 leading global energy companiesPlanned projects:Britain: Centrica, North Sea storageCalifornia: Thornton CO2 storage experiment (4000 lbs)Germany: Vattenfall, Underground burial?Nothing likely at any serious level until 2030
Six Reasons Why Nuclear is a Dud1. The private sector won’t touch it = public money2. An investment in efficiency goes much further3. The waste is radioactive for up to a million years4. The world’s uranium is a limited resource5. It can be used to make nuclear bombs6. The cooling is a problem during hot summers
Can British Columbia generate enoughsustainable, green electricity?Today: 60,000 GWhMWGWh/yrCents/kWhJobsWind500011,0006-1231,250Microhydro253011,1084-95,700Wood waste biomass21518004-9484Geothermal10709,0005-97,000Tidal222513,00011-2513,906Landfill gas15854-520Solar PV600012,00060 - 20210,000Total potential power58,000Efficiencyn/a12,5003-6145,200Solar Hot Watern/a10,000n/a[60,000]GeoExchange Heatn/a3,750n/a[21,420]Total+84,250413,560
In parts of Europe, the best policy forrenewable energy is theAdvanced Renewables Tariff1. All RE providers have guaranteed access to grid2. Guaranteed price per kWh3. Tariffs are secure for 20 years4. Possible size limit for each technology5. Cost is shared by all ratepayersThe Ontario Power Authority has introduced thesame policy for systems under 10 MW:• Wind, microhydro, biomass: 11 cents kWh• Solar: 42 cents kWh
Germany’s Advanced RenewablesTariff has led to:• 110,000 PV systems• 2,000 biomass plants• 6,000 small hydro plants• 16,500 wind turbines• 45,000 jobs in the wind industry
If all British Columbia’s drivers and truckersbought efficient EVs and plug-in hybrids,how much electricity would they require?
Motor Vehicles in BC: EV Power DemandCanadaB.C.kWh per16,000 kmGWh power demandper year= 1 GWh 1 million kWhTotal vehicle registrations, 200425,100,2962,707,940Total road motor vehicle registrations19,081,4782,410,482Vehicles weighing less than 4500 kg17,920,3602,273,461(a) Super Lightweight1,000,00015001500(b) Medium weight1,000,00030003000(c) Normal weight273,46160001640Vehicles weighing 4500 kg to 14999 kg389,81078,62210,000786Vehicles weighing 15000 kg or more285,15414,19815,000213Buses77,4478,20115,000123Motorcycles and mopeds408,70635,9991,00036Trailers4,492,733268,2412,000536Off-road, construction, farm vehicles1,526,08329,2166000175Total8,009 GWh/yrBC’s current electricity use: 60,000 GWh/yrStatistics Canada + EV power data. Guy Dauncey August 2005
Does it add up?In 2004 the world used 120,000 TeraWatt hoursOur goal for a sustainable world: 117,000 TWhTidal: 21,000 TWhBiomass: 75,000 TWhGeothermal: 137,000 TWhWind: 628,000 TWh (Archer, 2005)Total: 981,000 TeraWatt hours= 8 x more than we need+ all the solarat 120,000 TWh per 340,000 sq miles(Algeria = 919,000 sq miles; Texas = 262,000 sq m)