Draft

More documents

Recommendations

Info

PDA Readiness Assessment Final Report 3/29/13 development can be addressed by policy or financial interventions over the 30–year time horizon of Plan Bay Area. Five criteria were used to assess the sample set of PDAs: Housing capacity estimate (based on current conditions and the Plan Bay Area forecast). Existing planning and entitlement process. Level of community support as demonstrated by elected official approval of PDA-supportive land uses as well as history of neighborhood opposition. Market attractiveness. Infrastructure capacity, unfunded needs and financing capability. The analysis also incorporates information gleaned from discussions with local jurisdiction staff, examination of existing local plans and policies, and interviews with developers working in the sample PDAs. Summary of Findings and Recommendations Table 1 provides a summary of the EPS Development Readiness Assessment indicating the Plan Bay Area housing forecast for each PDA in the sample, and the percentage of forecast housing units likely to be accommodated under current “base” conditions and “amended” conditions (if recommended policy actions are taken). Key findings of the Development Readiness Assessment are as follows: 1. The 169 PDAs 1 that have been designated in the Bay Area are quite diverse, reflecting seven distinct “place types” that range in size from as little as 30 acres to several thousand acres. Given their wide distribution throughout the Bay Area the PDAs also exhibit a range of market conditions, development opportunities, and development constraints. 2. Substantial development capacity exists in the PDAs given current local land use policy as applied to identified “opportunity sites” (potential development sites), but some upzoning or increase in allowable densities will be required to meet the Plan Bay Area growth allocations. Table 1 indicates that, in aggregate, the current land use policies for the 20 PDAs in the sample currently represent physical capacity for 92 percent of the housing growth that has been allocated to them in Plan Bay Area. However, there is substantial variation among PDAs; in some cases current capacity greatly exceeds the Plan Bay Area growth forecast while it falls substantially short in others. 3. Overall “readiness” reflects the number of housing units EPS projects can be expected to be built in the PDA based on multiple factors, as distinct from the estimate of current physical capacity, which is simply an aggregation of allowable densities on opportunity sites per existing zoning ordinances. Also, “readiness” varies substantially among the PDAs with some 1 Plan Bay Area’s Jobs Housing Connection Strategy (May 2012) included 198 PDAs. A number of changes or modifications have been made since that time. At the writing of this report, the current number of PDAs is 169. Economic & Planning Systems, Inc. 2 P:\122000\121113 PDA Readiness Assessment\EPS\121113_finalreport_032913.docx
Table 1 Summary of PDA Readiness Assessment Results PDA Readiness Assessment; EPS #121113 PDA Type PDA Plan Bay Area New Units 2010-2040 Current Planned Capacity Total New Housing Units based on % of Current Zoning Allocation and Sites (2012) "Base" Readiness New Units by 2040 % of Allocation "Amended" Readiness New Units by 2040 % of Allocation Key Constraints Regional Center City Center San Francisco -- Downtown/Van Ness/Geary 27,139 16,846 62% 17,688 65% 21,479 79% Limited land supply, parcel sizes and existing uses San Jose -- North 32,400 32,000 99% 19,200 59% 25,600 79% Policy to maintain jobs/housing balance Fremont -- City Center 2,896 7,943 274% 3,177 110% 4,766 165% Hayward -- Downtown 3,223 5,159 160% 3,353 104% 3,869 120% Ample land supply and zoning, but infrastructure deficiencies and funding Ample capacity but constrained by market conditions, parcel sizes and existing uses Redwood City -- Downtown 5,243 3,803 73% 1,902 36% 3,042 58% Limited land supply, parcel sizes and existing uses San Rafael -- Downtown 1,348 2,079 154% 1,455 108% 1,663 123% Ample land supply and zoning, but constrained by parcel sizes and existing uses Santa Rosa -- Downtown/Station Area 3,895 3,399 87% 2,379 61% 3,059 79% Parcel sizes and existing uses 3 Suburban Center Antioch -- Hillcrest 2,287 2,500 109% 1,250 55% 1,500 66% Unproven market for higher density, infrastructure financing Milpitas -- Transit Area 7,080 6,136 87% 5,522 78% 6,136 87% Parcel sizes and existing uses Walnut Creek -- West Downtown 3,012 1,814 60% 1,451 48% 2,177 72% Parcel sizes and existing uses Transit Town Center Urban Neighborhood Transit Neighborhood Mixed-Use Corridor Alameda -- Naval Air Station 4,010 1,935 48% 1,959 49% 3,483 87% Density limits and infrastructure financing Morgan Hill -- Downtown 1,419 1,243 88% 870 61% 1,243 88% Market conditions and lack of financing assistance Oakland -- Coliseum 6,845 11,194 164% 3,358 49% 3,918 57% Market conditions and lack of financing assistance Limited land supply, infrastructure needs, and lack of financing South San Francisco -- Downtown 3,116 1,700 55% 1,496 48% 1,777 57% assistance Oakland -- MacArthur 5,092 3,577 70% 2,325 46% 3,130 61% Limited land supply, parcel sizes and existing uses Benicia -- Downtown 929 429 46% 343 37% 429 46% Limited land supply, parcel sizes and existing uses Limited land supply, market conditions and lack of financing Pittsburg -- Downtown 1,823 707 39% 636 35% 990 54% assistance El Cerrito -- San Pablo Corridor 1,015 2,147 212% 1,288 127% 1,718 169% San Mateo -- El Camino Real 1,204 1,668 139% 1,001 83% 1,168 97% Parcel sizes and existing uses Ample land supply and zoning, but constrained by parcel sizes and existing uses Sunnyvale -- El Camino Real 4,412 2,850 65% 3,192 72% 4,104 93% Low-density zoning, parcel sizes, and existing uses TOTAL SAMPLE 118,388 109,129 92% 73,848 62% 95,249 80% Economic & Planning Systems 3/26/2013 P:\121000\121113MTC\Readiness_Assessment Process\PDA Readiness Assessment\DS_Readiness Assessment_032513
Page 1 and 2: Draft March 2013 Strategy for a Sus
Page 3 and 4: Final Report PDA Readiness Assessme
Page 5: 1. REPORT SUMMARY AND FINDINGS Plan
Page 9 and 10: PDA Readiness Assessment Final Repo
Page 11 and 12: 2. STUDY BACKGROUND Over the past s
Page 13 and 14: 3. PDA DEVELOPMENT READINESS ASSESS
Page 15 and 16: Table 2 Capacity Assessment for Sel
Page 19 and 20: Table 3 PDA Readiness Criteria Work
Page 21 and 22: Table 3 PDA Readiness Criteria Work
Page 39 and 40: 5. POLICY ACTIONS TO IMPROVE DEVELO
Page 49 and 50: A-1 Units 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,0
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2 PDA Readiness Criteria Wor
Page 57 and 58:
Figure 3 PDA Readiness Criteria Wor
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
7,000 6,000 5,000 Figure 9: Redwood
Page 77 and 78:
Figure 10 PDA Readiness Criteria Wo
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
7,000 6,000 5,000 Figure 15: Santa
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
3,000 2,500 Figure 21: San Mateo El
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
140,000 120,000 100,000 Figure 27:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
3,000 2,500 Figure 33: Antioch Hill
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Figure 39:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
4,000 3,500 3,000 Figure 45: Pittsb
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
2,500 2,000 Figure 51: Morgan Hill
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 Figure 57:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225 and 226:
Page 227 and 228:
Page 229 and 230:
Metropolitan Transportation Commiss
show all

Draft

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?