Probability Applications

Preface
This book is designed as a practical guide for scientists and engineers to help them solve
problems involving uncertainty and/or probability. Consequently, the book has a practical
bent and contains lots of examples. Yet there is enough theory and references to fundamental
work to provide firm ground for scientists and engineers.
The point of view of the authors is that probabilists and fuzzy enthusiasts have argued
for too long about which philosophy is best. The truth is that both tools have their place
in the world of problem solving. In many cases, fuzzy logic is used to solve problems that
could be solved with probability because the probability literature is too theoretical and looks
impractical to the practitioner. In other cases, fuzzy logic is, indeed, the proper technique
to use. Alternatively, some problems are solved using probability because fuzzy techniques
appear to be too empirical. Probability is often the correct tool to use. Sometimes both tools
can be used together synergistically. This book is intended to help the user choose the best
tool for the job.
The distinctive feature of this book is that investigators from these two different fields
have combined their talents to provide a text that is useful to multiple communities. This
book makes an honest effort to show both the shortcomings and benefits of each technique.
It provides examples and insight into the best tool to use for a particular job.
Both fuzzy logic and probability are discussed in other texts. Fuzzy logic texts usually
mention probability but are primarily about fuzzy logic. Probability texts seldom even
acknowledge fuzzy logic. Because probabilists and fuzzy enthusiasts seldom cooperatively
work together, textbooks usually give one method of solving problems or the other, but not
both. This book is an exception. The authors do work together to mutually benefit both
disciplines. In addition, they present examples showing useful combinations of the two
techniques.
A familiarity with mathematics through calculus is assumed for this book. The book
is intended for the practicing engineer or scientist at the Bachelor of Science level or above.
While it is not designed for a specific course, because probability and fuzzy logic are not
usually taught together, this book could be used for a course on either subject or for a course on
general problem solving. It also has applications to control theory and artificial intelligence,
knowledge acquisition/management, and risk/reliability analysis.
Timothy J. Ross
Jane M. Booker
W. Jerry Parkinson
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