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Cooperation in East Asia the Cases of APT and EAS (1997-2009) LIU Qianqian

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Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s Activism <strong>in</strong> Regional Economic<br />

<strong>Cooperation</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>: <strong>the</strong> <strong>Cases</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>APT</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>EAS</strong><br />

(<strong>1997</strong>-<strong>2009</strong>)<br />

<strong>LIU</strong> <strong>Qianqian</strong><br />

IPRCC<br />

Feb 2012


Contents<br />

• Def<strong>in</strong>itions & Research background<br />

• Overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>oretical debates<br />

on Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s rise <strong>and</strong> its regional activism<br />

• Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s participation <strong>in</strong> <strong>APT</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>EAS</strong><br />

• Conclusions<br />

• Future studies


Def<strong>in</strong>itions<br />

• <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong><br />

10 Sou<strong>the</strong>ast <strong>Asia</strong>n states + 3 Nor<strong>the</strong>ast <strong>Asia</strong>n states<br />

• <strong>APT</strong> or 10+3<br />

‘ASEAN Plus Three’<br />

Regional cooperation mechanism<br />

• <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong> Summit (<strong>EAS</strong>)<br />

2005:10+3+3<br />

2011:10+8


Multi-dimensional levels <strong>of</strong> <strong>APT</strong><br />

<strong>APT</strong><br />

10+3 10+1 +3


Def<strong>in</strong>itions<br />

• <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong><br />

10 Sou<strong>the</strong>ast <strong>Asia</strong>n states + 3 Nor<strong>the</strong>ast <strong>Asia</strong>n states<br />

• <strong>APT</strong> or 10+3<br />

‘ASEAN Plus Three’<br />

Regional cooperation mechanism<br />

• <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong> Summit (<strong>EAS</strong>)<br />

2005:10+3+3<br />

2011:10+8


Context<br />

<strong>Asia</strong>n F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis <strong>in</strong> <strong>1997</strong>-1998


<strong>Asia</strong>n F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis<br />

• <strong>Asia</strong>n F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis<br />

• The Role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IMF/ <strong>the</strong> US<br />

– Tighten<strong>in</strong>g Monetary Policy<br />

– Restructur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ancial System<br />

– Open<strong>in</strong>g Up Economies


Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>n F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s Role <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>n F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis<br />

<strong>and</strong> regional response<br />

• Non-devaluation policy<br />

• F<strong>in</strong>ancial Support through IMF<br />

-$2 billion to Thail<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> Indonesia through IMF<br />

package


What were <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>n F<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />

Crisis on regional cooperation?<br />

• Politics <strong>of</strong> Resentment<br />

• Close <strong>in</strong>terdependence<br />

• Exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>ternational organizations cannot help get<br />

out <strong>of</strong> trouble<br />

• A sense <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region (<strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong> or <strong>Asia</strong> Pacific)<br />

The creation <strong>of</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>n Plus Three<br />

(<strong>APT</strong>, 10+3)


Debates<br />

• Exclusive nature <strong>of</strong> 10+3<br />

• It was <strong>the</strong> first time that Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong> Japan coexisted<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> same regional framework which <strong>the</strong> US was<br />

excluded.<br />

• Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s proactive posture <strong>in</strong> 10+3 <strong>and</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>n<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ancial Crisis<br />

• The sharp difference between Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s <strong>in</strong>volvement<br />

<strong>in</strong> regional cooperation group<strong>in</strong>gs before/after <strong>the</strong><br />

Crisis.


Overview <strong>of</strong> Exist<strong>in</strong>g Literature<br />

Three Ma<strong>in</strong> Paradigms <strong>in</strong> IR<br />

• Realism<br />

• Liberalism<br />

• Constructivism


Realism<br />

• Key Po<strong>in</strong>ts:<br />

• The structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational system is anarchic<br />

• Sovereign state (not IO, corporation, NGO) is rationale.<br />

• To survive, power is important.<br />

• Struggle for power<br />

• Conflict, suspicion <strong>and</strong> competition<br />

• Zero-sum game


Realism<br />

How do realists expla<strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s rise <strong>and</strong> its regional<br />

behaviour?<br />

Offensive Realism (John Mearsheimer)<br />

• Historical analogies: <strong>the</strong> US<br />

• A dissatisfied power<br />

• Maximize its share <strong>of</strong> world power<br />

• The world hegemony Global hegemonDom<strong>in</strong>ate <strong>the</strong><br />

region<br />

• Zero-sum game between Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> US<br />

• Regional cooperation to exclude <strong>the</strong> US<br />

• ‘Ch<strong>in</strong>a threat‘ <strong>the</strong>ories


Realism<br />

• Critique<br />

– Historical Analogies<br />

• Not causes or explanations<br />

• Unique historical experience


Liberal approach <strong>and</strong> economic<br />

<strong>in</strong>terdependence<br />

• Key po<strong>in</strong>ts:<br />

– Complex <strong>in</strong>terdependence<br />

– Decrease <strong>the</strong> likelihood <strong>of</strong> political conflicts<br />

– Make <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> force costly<br />

– Spill-over effect: low political spheres high political<br />

spheres (Domke 1988: 30 states 10 years)


Liberalism<br />

How do liberals expla<strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s <strong>in</strong>volvement<br />

<strong>in</strong> regional cooperation <strong>in</strong> <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>?<br />

• The degree <strong>of</strong> economic <strong>in</strong>terdependence<br />

• An eng<strong>in</strong>e <strong>of</strong> growth<br />

• A catalyst for regional <strong>in</strong>tegration<br />

• Play by <strong>the</strong> rules <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> game<br />

• Cooperative Behaviour


Liberalism<br />

Are <strong>the</strong> liberal arguments accurate?<br />

Limitations<br />

• Oversimplify <strong>the</strong> complicated nature <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />

relations <strong>in</strong> <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong><br />

• Ignore some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> potential problems beh<strong>in</strong>d<br />

economic <strong>in</strong>terdependence


Constructivism<br />

• Key po<strong>in</strong>ts:<br />

International politics is a ‘world <strong>of</strong> our mak<strong>in</strong>g’.<br />

(Nicolars Onuf 1989)<br />

- Norms, beliefs, identities <strong>and</strong> values <strong>in</strong>fluence <strong>the</strong><br />

behaviour <strong>and</strong> actions <strong>of</strong> political actors


Constructivism<br />

How do constructivists expla<strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s<br />

foreign policy <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> rise <strong>of</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a?<br />

- It depends on how o<strong>the</strong>r states view Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s<br />

behaviour (Alagappa 1998)


Constructivism<br />

• Limitations:<br />

– why is <strong>the</strong> ideational factor more important than<br />

material <strong>in</strong>terests?<br />

– Little attention has been given to <strong>the</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>ese<br />

view.


Our Theoretical Framework:<br />

Analytical Eclecticism<br />

Power<br />

Interests<br />

Ideational<br />

factors


Regional cooperation<br />

Set <strong>in</strong> a Broader Context<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s WTO accession<br />

S<strong>in</strong>o-US relationship<br />

US attitude towards <strong>APT</strong>


Ch<strong>in</strong>a-ASEAN FTA<br />

• Why were ASEAN states <strong>in</strong>terested?<br />

– More dependent on Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s market<br />

– Exp<strong>and</strong> its presence <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>ese market<br />

– The economic stagnation <strong>of</strong> Japan<br />

• ASEAN’s worries<br />

– The same third-country markets <strong>in</strong> US, Japan <strong>and</strong> EU<br />

– FDI competition<br />

• Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s Response<br />

– Early Harvest Programme<br />

– Economic concession for <strong>the</strong> four newer members


Source: ASEAN-Ch<strong>in</strong>a Expert Group on Economic <strong>Cooperation</strong> (2001:149)


Question: Why did Ch<strong>in</strong>a make an ultimate<br />

effort to promote <strong>the</strong> CAFTA with ASEAN?<br />

Economic<br />

Interests<br />

Promot<strong>in</strong>g a closer S<strong>in</strong>o-ASEAN<br />

political relationship<br />

great<br />

geopolitical<br />

&<br />

strategic<br />

significance<br />

Alleviat<strong>in</strong>g Ch<strong>in</strong>a Threat Theory<br />

Limit<strong>in</strong>g Taiwan’s attempts to<br />

extend its <strong>in</strong>ternational legitimacy


Ch<strong>in</strong>a-ASEAN FTA<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s FTA strategy<br />

Negotiate with<br />

ASEAN states<br />

as a whole<br />

Japan’s FTA strategy<br />

Negotiate with<br />

selected<br />

ASEAN states<br />

<strong>in</strong>dividually


<strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong> Summit<br />

In <strong>the</strong> orig<strong>in</strong>al design:<br />

• Long-term goal<br />

•Replace <strong>the</strong> <strong>APT</strong><br />

In reality<br />

• Co-existence <strong>of</strong> <strong>APT</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>EAS</strong><br />

• The expansion <strong>of</strong> membership


The Membership Issue <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>EAS</strong><br />

• The discord between Ch<strong>in</strong>a <strong>and</strong> Japan<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

The orig<strong>in</strong>al<br />

13 members <strong>of</strong> <strong>APT</strong><br />

Japan<br />

13 <strong>APT</strong> members<br />

+<br />

India<br />

Australia<br />

New Zeal<strong>and</strong>


Concerns <strong>of</strong> Japan<br />

Japan’s<br />

<strong>in</strong>tentions<br />

Balanc<strong>in</strong>g Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s<br />

grow<strong>in</strong>g power<br />

<strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>fluence<br />

Ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g a good<br />

relationship with<br />

<strong>the</strong> US<br />

Putt<strong>in</strong>g<br />

‘democracy’<br />

<strong>and</strong><br />

‘human rights’<br />

<strong>in</strong>to EA Community


Was Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s activism <strong>in</strong> <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong> at <strong>the</strong><br />

expense <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> US?<br />

• To push <strong>the</strong> US out <strong>of</strong> <strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>?<br />

• The role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> US <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s regional policy<br />

Strategy: hedg<strong>in</strong>g strategy


Conclusions<br />

• Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s activism <strong>in</strong> <strong>APT</strong> bears political significance. It served crucial<br />

reassurance functions. Specifically, Ch<strong>in</strong>a aimed to assure o<strong>the</strong>rs <strong>of</strong> its<br />

peaceful rise <strong>and</strong> to enhance its political credibility <strong>and</strong> to establish itself as a<br />

responsible power. Political credibility is important, as it largely determ<strong>in</strong>es<br />

whe<strong>the</strong>r o<strong>the</strong>rs view Ch<strong>in</strong>a as a threat or an opportunity. Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s reassurance<br />

policy has been largely successful (CAFTA).<br />

• At <strong>the</strong> systemic level, great power relations play a significant part <strong>in</strong> shap<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s regional strategy. The ideational factor adds an additional layer to <strong>the</strong><br />

material factors <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>terests <strong>and</strong> powers <strong>in</strong> underst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> complexity <strong>of</strong> IR <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>East</strong> <strong>Asia</strong>n regionalism, especially <strong>the</strong> S<strong>in</strong>o-Japanese relations <strong>in</strong> EA.<br />

• The nature <strong>of</strong> IR <strong>in</strong> EA should not been be seen <strong>in</strong> traditional ‘balance <strong>of</strong> power’<br />

or seek<strong>in</strong>g regional hegemony. The competition is more <strong>in</strong> terms <strong>of</strong> ‘<strong>in</strong>fluence’.<br />

It is balance <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>fluence. Ch<strong>in</strong>a wanted to make use <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>stitutional<br />

mechanisms <strong>of</strong> regional economic cooperation as a means to enhance <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

own regional <strong>in</strong>fluence ra<strong>the</strong>r than to disturb <strong>the</strong> regional stability.<br />

• Functional cooperation


Future Studies<br />

• The US’s focus turns back to <strong>Asia</strong>-Pacific:<br />

How it would affect Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s regional policy <strong>in</strong> <strong>East</strong><br />

<strong>Asia</strong>?<br />

• Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s active <strong>in</strong>volvement <strong>in</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r regions:<br />

Evaluat<strong>in</strong>g how Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s regional policies <strong>in</strong> different<br />

regions serve different functions <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a’s FP.


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