Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century

Deterrence in the twenty-first century - Air University Press


• This large-scale and highly publicised operation ended

Her Majesty’s Government’s implicit policy of selfdeterrence.

Within 10 days, the British Army forcefully

reentered the fray, with a forceful reentry into the Republican

areas of Belfast and Londonderry in Operation

Motorman on 31 July 1972. Policing was reestablished,

as leading terrorist cadres were disrupted or imprisoned,

and overall levels of violence began to drop. 14

• Level V: Extreme and indiscriminate terrorism

• Most of the measures in earlier or less-intense stages continue

to apply, although the strategy of publicising indications

of potential moderation will be less convincing.

• Act to raise assistance, in technical capability and personnel,

to and from other organisations practising terrorism.

Increasing casualties to hostile (at present probably

Western) security forces, particularly those involved

in interventionary operations, will further benefit the

general NSA deterrent calculus.

• Make clear that you will also target development specialists

and aid workers to frustrate stabilisation and reconstruction

efforts. This should help ensure that interventionary

wars are seen not only as illegal but unwinnable.

• Consider indiscriminate car or suicide bombing of innocent

civilians, including those from the NSA’s own community,

to deter public involvement in new state structures and/or

reduce Western willingness to contemplate new interventions

because the civilian death toll will be higher, even if

casualties are not caused directly by their forces.

• Level VI: Territorial defence of fixed-liberated zones

• Creation and maintenance of these NSA-controlled spaces

will depend upon deterrent cost-benefit analysis to keep

out national state authorities or their allies, particularly

today the United States. Because these highest-intensity

scenarios will involve conventional military assault, considerations

here will most resemble defensive military

calculations for kinetic deterrence by denial.

• To help maintain a satisfactory balance of incentives

that will help hold off military assault, avoid high-profile


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