Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century

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Deterrence in the twenty-first century - Air University Press

DETERRENCE AND THE ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH WAR

subsequent effective marketing of a narrative of victory—may

lead to a loss of reputation by the regional power, tempting

other insurgencies to try to emulate the challenger’s success.

This seems to be the effect of the 2006 war on Hamas’ decision

in December 2008 to refrain from extending the six months

period of calm (the Tahdia) with Israel.

Conversely, while general deterrence is not easily translatable

to effective specific deterrence, Israel’s post-2006 experience

also shows that failure at specific deterrence will not necessarily

damage the regional power’s robust general deterrence.

Otherwise, why would Syria have agreed to conduct peace talks

with Israel in the aftermath of the 2006 war? And, why did it

call for the resumption of such talks in mid-2009?

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