Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century

Deterrence in the twenty-first century - Air University Press


Figure 2. Policy types and relationship

an adversary nation-state. It features the element of predictable

automaticity. The adversary can reliably expect if it performs the

act, then it “would be assumed to have [its] address on it. The

United States would then return postage. Automaticity of this

kind concentrates the mind.” 16

The next region is the upper-right quadrant, where fixed policy

is applied to allied or friendly nation-states. This region

characterizes formal treaty agreements and mutual security

arrangements of a specific nature, much like the North Atlantic

Treaty Organization (NATO) treaty features a signatory agreement

to go to war on another nation’s behalf. We can refer to

this region of the framework as policy of “insurance,” as it is a

stronger form of policy that insures some action on some occasion

in the form of “if . . . then.” These arrangements are formed

explicitly on the basis of the perceived value of policy’s purpose

on our side primarily and potentially on a multilateral basis if

other nation-states share a mutual valuation of the purpose.


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