Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century

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Deterrence in the twenty-first century - Air University Press

ON NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND ASSURANCE

War appears to offer evidence that nuclear deterrence, on occasion,

can be uniquely effective. Saddam Hussein appears to

have been confident that he could withstand the pressure of

conventional war with the United States—perhaps based upon

his relatively dismissive view of the US will to fight a bloody

conventional war. When Secretary of State James Baker told

Tariq Aziz of the “overwhelming” conventional power that would

be “brought to bear” against Iraq, Aziz responded, “Mr. Secretary,

Iraq is a very ancient nation. We have lived for 6,000 years.

I have no doubts that you are a very powerful nation. I have no

doubts that you have a very strong military machine and you

will inflict on us heavy losses. But Iraq will survive and this

leadership will decide the future of Iraq.” 27 This prediction

proved accurate for a decade.

Of course, the explanations of apparent Iraqi restraint offered

by Tariq Aziz, Wafic Al Sammarai, and Hussein Kamal do

not close the issue; they do, however, suggest that nuclear deterrence

was at least part of the answer as to why Saddam

Hussein did not use WMD in 1991 when he apparently had the

option to do so. These explanations also suggest the profound

error of those prominent commentators who asserted with such

certainty immediately after the 1991 war that nuclear weapons

were “incredible as a deterrent and therefore irrelevant,” 28 and

the fragility of similar contemporary claims that US nuclear

threats are incredible and thus useless for contemporary regional

deterrence purposes. 29

Prominent American commentators can assert that nuclear

weapons are incredible and thus useless in such cases; their

speculation about US threat credibility, however, ultimately is

irrelevant. For deterrence purposes, it is the opponent’s belief

about US threat credibility that matters, and that cannot be

ascertained from the views of American domestic commentators.

The 1991 Gulf War appears to demonstrate that Iraqi officials

perceived US threats as nuclear and sufficiently credible

to deter and that this perception was more important to US deterrence

strategy than were actual US intentions. Nuclear deterrence

appears to have played a significant role despite the

fact that US leaders apparently saw no need to employ nuclear

weapons and had no intention of doing so.

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