“A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL”

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CONFERÊNCIA

Instituto Superior Técnico

20 de Setembro de 2007

“A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O

CASO DE PORTUGAL”

António Costa Silva

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

1


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

I. Introdução

II.

III.

IV.

O que é o PETRÓLEO e Como é PRODUZIDO

A evolução da PROCURA MUNDIAL, os preços e a CRISE ACTUAL

A QUESTÃO das RESERVAS e o O PICO de PRODUÇÃO

V. O CASO DE PORTUGAL

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

2


WORLD DAILY CONSMUPTION in 2005

● 85 Million Barrels of Oil

● 240 Billion Cubic Feet of Natural Gas

● 14 Million Tons of Coal

85 MB/D – Means

One Olympic-sized swimming pool of Oil CONSUMED

in 15 SECONDS

ONE DAY OF CONSUMPTION = 5500 swimming pools

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3


CO 2 EMISSIONS

YEAR

CO 2

EMISSIONS

(Million tonnes)

RATES OF INCREASE

(%)

2000

22000

2030

38000

Transport: 27%

Power-Generation: 48%

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4


CRUDE CONSUMPTION in the TRANSPORT SYSTEM

YEAR

Consumption

(Million tons)

1985

950

2005

2500

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5


THE INTEGRATED SHOCK

Economic

breakdowns

COLLAPSE

of Drilling

Platforms

KATRINA

COLLAPSE

of Refineries

Energy

Insecurity

Increase

In

costs

COLLAPSE

of Pipelines

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6


USE of

ALTERNATIVE

SOURCES

of ENERGY

HIGH

OIL

PRICES

RENEWABLES

CLIMATIC

CHANGES

GEOPOLITICAL

INSTABILITY

WHY WE

NEED A NEW

ENERGY MODEL

ENVIRONMENTAL

REGULATIONS

SUPPLY

CONSTRAINTS

and POSSIBLE

DISRUPTION

CO2

EMISSIONS

COMMERCIAL

SYSTEM

KYOTO

PROTOCOL

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7


OIL and GAS Key issues









How high will go the price of oil?

Are we running out of Resources?

What will happen to the world economy?

Where are the SOLUTIONS?

Where are the NEW OPPORTUNITIES?

Is CHINA’s economic development and energy thirst sustainable?

Energy is the primary source of global tension?

WHICH Government policies work and WHICH DO NOT?

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

8


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

I. Introdução

II.

III.

O que é o PETRÓLEO e Como é PRODUZIDO

A evolução da PROCURA MUNDIAL, os preços e a CRISE

ACTUAL

IV.

A QUESTÃO das RESERVAS e o O PICO de PRODUÇÃO

V. O Caso de Portugal

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

9


CONDIÇÕES NECESSÁRIAS À OCORRÊNCIA

DE PETRÓLEO E GAS NATURAL

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

10


“The MAGIC FIVE”

1- SOURCE

2 - MIGRATION

3 - TRAP

5 -TIMING -TIMING

Successfull acumulation!

Is it economic ?

4 - RESERVOIR

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11


20-09-07 António Costa Silva

12


MIGRAÇÃO

O petróleo não fica no

sítio onde foi formado:

migra até encontrar uma

“armadilha”.

Os hidrocarbonetos migram

em solução ou por processos

de difusão.

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13


ARMADILHAS

Combination trap

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14


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15


Structural Map - Top of Rift

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16


Modelo (médio) 3D Porosidade

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17


Dynamic Simulation Model

Steam

Trial

Sector

Model

Fine Grid

Upscaled Grid

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18


Linha Sismica Interpretada

Proposta de Localização

Prospecto

Topo 1

Topo 2

Topo 3

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19


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20


DEEPWATER PATHFINDER

Dynamically Positioned

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21


WELL POSITION

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22


COMPENSATOR

SYSTEM

Sub-sea BOP Stack

Well head suspension

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23


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24


PRODUÇÃO

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25


PRODUÇÃO

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26


PRODUÇÃO

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27


Carving Up a Barrel of Crude Oil :

Percent Petrolem Products Derived

Other 8%

Residual Fuel Oil 4%

Petroleum Coke 2%

Asphalt & Road Oil 3%

Destilate Fuel Oil 21%

Motor

Gasoline 47%

Jet Fuel &

Kerosene 8%

Propane 6%

Lubricants 1%

Source: Adapted from U.S. Energy Information Agency

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

28


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

I. Introdução

II.

III.

IV.

O que é o PETRÓLEO e Como é PRODUZIDO

A evolução da PROCURA MUNDIAL, os preços e a CRISE ACTUAL

A QUESTÃO das RESERVAS e o O PICO de PRODUÇÃO

V. O CASO DE PORTUGAL

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

29


2015

2014

2013

2012

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Long Term World Oil Demand

Others

Industrialized

Countries

ACTUAL FORECAST

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

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30


A EVOLUÇÃO DOS PREÇOS DO PETRÓLEO

Source: IFP

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31


CHINA - Crude oil Domestic production and consumption

CHINA - Crude oil Domestic production and consumption

(Thousand Barrels per Day)

7,000.0

6,000.0

5,000.0

4,000.0

3,000.0

2,000.0

Consumption

Production

1,000.0

0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: EIA and Commerzbank

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

32


Monthly Vehicles Sales in China: All Cars and Light Trucks

Source: Adapted from China Association of Automobiles

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33


Sources of Incremental World Oil Demand:

Percent by Region on a total 1.7 MMB/d 2005 Vs. 2004

Rest of the World 48%

USA 11%

China 23%

Other Asia 18%

Source: Adapted from International Energy Agency Oil Market Report, July 2005)

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34


U.S. Oil Production and Consumption

U.S. Oil Production and Consumption

(Million barrels per Day)

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Production

Consumption

Source: US Dep. Energy, EIA – Energy Outlook (“Michael Klaré, Blod and Oil)

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35


USA and ALASKA

Crude oil production and decline

10000

(Thousand Barrels per day)

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

48 States

Alaska

0

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: EIA

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36


WHY CURRENT HIGH OIL PRICES

FACTORS

Tight

Supply/Demand

Balance

EVIDENCE

● Continuous trend of high prices.

● OPEC’s abandonment of price range.

Erosion of OPEC

Extra-Capacity

● Inability of OPEC to control the prices.

● Inability to respond to world demand.

Change in World

Pattern Demand

● No seasonal effects in 2004/2005

● Fastest growth in demand in China/India

● High consumption in USA.

Lack of Investment

in E&D Activities

following

1998 Crisis

● Inability of producing countries to respond

to growing demand.

Lack of Flexibility

in Terms of

Production

Alternatives

● Decline in production in North Sea

and Alaska.

Geopolitical Factor

● Instability in Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria.

● Terrorist threats in Saudi Arabia, Qatar

and Kuwait.

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

37


OPEC EXTRA-CAPACITY

(M barrels per Day)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

15

1985 2005

1

Source: EIA

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

38


THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR

Evolution of World Population and Consumption of Energy

14

30

12

10

8

6

4

2

25

20

15

10

5

world population (billion people)

energy consumption per year

(billions of tep)

0

1900 2000 2050

0

world population energy consumption

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39


Oil & Gas Remain as Primary Energy Sources

Source: ExxonMobil Energyoutlook - A 2030 view

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40


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

I. Introdução

II.

III.

O que é o PETRÓLEO e Como é PRODUZIDO

A evolução da PROCURA MUNDIAL, os preços e a CRISE

ACTUAL

IV.

A QUESTÃO das RESERVAS e o PICO de PRODUÇÃO

V. O Caso de PORTUGAL

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

41


RESERVAS PROVADAS DE PETRÓLEO NO MUNDO em 2005

Total: 1200 Mil Milhões de Barris

Rússia e CIS (10.3%) Europa (1.3%)

África (9.5%)

Américas Central

e doSul (8.6%)

América doNorte (5.0%)

Ásia-Pacíífico - (3.4%)

MédioOriente (61.9%)

Fonte : BP Statistical Review

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42


PRODUÇÃO MUNDIAL de PETRÓLEO EM 2005

Produção Média Mundial: 81 MB/D

Europa (7%)

Rússia e CIS (15%)

Médio Oriente (30%)

Ásia-Pacífico (10%)

África (12%)

América do Norte (17%)

América Central e do Sul (9%)

Fonte: BP Statistical Review

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

43


RESERVAS PROVADAS de GAS no MUNDO em 2005

Total: 179.83 Triliões de metros cúbicos (Tmc)

Europa (3.0%)

Irão (14.9%)

Qatar (14.3%)

Arábia Saudita (3,8%) EUA (3.0%)

Nigéria (2.9%)

Emiratos Árabes

Unidos (3.3%)

Argélia (2.5%)

Venezuela (2.4%)

Cazaquistão (1.6%)

Rússia (26,6%)

Outros (21.7%)

Fonte: BP Statistical Review/AIE

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

44


PRODUÇÃO MUNDIAL de GAS em 2005

Total: 2763 mil milhões de metros cúbicos

Outros (24.1%) Rússia (21.6%)

Emiratos Árabes

Unidos (1.6%)

Europa (10,5%)

EUA (19.0%)

Malásia (2.1%)

Indonésia (2.7%)

Egipto (1.3%)

Qatar (1.6%)

Argélia (3.2%)

Canadá (6.7%)

Irão (3.1%)

Arábia Saudita (2.5%)

Fonte: BP Statistical Review/AIE

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

45


World gas consumption

(Bcm)

(Bcm)

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 500

00

4254

3377

2577

676

300

137

220

4 29

2000 2010 2020

Gas Consumption GTL LNG

Source: BP Statistical Review / Cedigaz

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46


OLNG

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47


PARTEX EXPERIENCE IN RESERVES ADDITION

HEAVY OIL LNG DEEP OFFSHORE

FRACTURED

RESERVOIRS

INITIALIZATION

1 st Realization - N th Realization

Upscaling

Upscaling

Upscaling

History Matching

(x N)

Selection of Best

Realization

GLOBAL CONDITIONAL

OPTIMIZATION

Recombination

Mutation

Co-DSS

Resulting

Realization

History Matching

(x N)

History Matching

Objective Met?

MUKHAIZNA E.O.R.

● Massive Steam Injection

● Improvement of RF

● Reservoir Resp. to HEAT

● Flexible FDP

OMAN LNG

● Liquefaction

● Transport

● Booming of the World

Market

● Chain Value

BRAZIL SANTOS BASIN

● Seismic Inversion

● Geological Modelling

● Petroleum System

● Operations Complexity

Naturaly Fractured Reservoir

Image constrained by every

Available dataset

FRACTURED RESERVOIRS

● Reservoir Characterization

● Improve Recovery Factor

● 3D models

● Integration Dynamic Data

Surface

Monitoring

Steam

Generation

Injection Well

Producing Well

STEAM

OIL

Water

Observation

2005

Well

BMS-10

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2034 m

48


World map Showing top 10 Oil Reserves Countries

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49


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50


Evolution of Oil and Gas World Production and Discovery

2 500

2 000

Oil discovery in Gbbl

Cumulative oil production in Gbbl

Gas discovery in Gboe

Cumulative gas production in Gboe

1 500

1 000

500

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075

Source: US Geological Survey

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51


Total Volume of New Discoveries Worlwide: By Year, 1900/2004

Source: Adapted from Harper (2003) and Oil & Gas Journal (2004)

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52


WORLD OIL RESERVES: A BALANCED APPROACH

NEGATIVE TRENDS

POSITIVE TRENDS


Few Giant Discoveries since early

90’s


Untapped reserves in the Middle East

(Iraq/Saudi Arabia)





Current Production from

increasingly mature fields

Declining discoveries: 1 bbl is

found for every 3 bbls produced

Production decline in the North

Sea, Alaska, USA

Reliability of Reserves Estimates:

Poor reporting





The “Omani” paradygm

Deep-offshore, polar and arctic oil

potential

Unconventional oil reserves:

Venezuela/Canada

Technology Role:

- Seabed Logging

- Digital Field concept


Majors declining Reserves

Replenishment Ratios


Average Ultimate Recovery is low

(30/35%); room for enhancement

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53


WORLD OIL AND GAS RESERVES

(in billion barrels)

ESTIMATED

REMAINING

RESERVES

ESTIMATED

UNDISCOVERED

RESERVES

Conventional Oil

1147

470

Heavy Oil 430 70

New Technologies 200 50

Gas

1153 (*)

850 (*)

( * ) barrels of oil equivalent (boe)

Source: BP, TOTAL, USGS,CERA and IFP

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54


"Heavy Oils" : Resources of 4000 to 5000 Gb (OIP)

Potential Reserves depends on recovery factors

Considerable Potential Reserves : 500 to 1000 Gb

equivalent to 50-100% of worldwide conventional oil reserves

5 to 10 times (?) the ultra-deep offshore potential reserves

mainly (80%) in extra heavy oil, tar sands and bitumens

mainly (80%) in North and South America

less than 1% produced or under active development

Source: Total 2003

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

55


2010+

Automation / i-Field

Field

Office

Satellite

RTOC

RTDT / WITS

Satellite dish

Transmission

Data Storage

Monitoring

I- Field Workflow

Interpretation

Actions

Satellite dish

LWD signal

Non Reservoir

Instructions

Reservoir

Decisions

Instructions

to rig to

Geosteerwell

Evaluate Data

Update Geological Model

(INFORM)

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

56


Estimate of Reserves Gain from the Digital Oil Field of the Future

(billion barrels)

Source: Cambrige Energy Research Associates

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57


WORLD OIL RESERVES

ESTIMATES of the ORIGINAL VOLUMES

4000

3500

3000

Billion Barrels

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

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59


When will supply start declining?

The production peak

● Estimate future production profiles, the growth rate, the time for

peak production and the start of decline

● Factors involved:

- Reserves

-Costs

- Technology

- Strategies

● Technology and expertise will definitively play a fundamental role in

turning uneconomical reserves into real barrels

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60


FORECAST OF WORLD OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

- HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO

FORECAST OF WORLD OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO

140

120

OIL

GAS

Million Barrels / Day

100

80

60

40

20

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

61


FORECAST OF OIL PRODUCTION (HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO)

- MIDDLE EAST AND REST OF THE WORLD

FORECAST OF OIL PRODUCTION

HIGHER GROWTH SCENARIO

MIDDLE EAST AND REST OF THE WORLD

140

120

MIDDLE EAST

REST OF THE WORLD

Million Barrels / Day

100

80

60

40

20

0

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

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62


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

I. Introdução

II.

III.

O que é o PETRÓLEO e Como é PRODUZIDO

A evolução da PROCURA MUNDIAL, os preços e a CRISE

ACTUAL

IV.

A QUESTÃO das RESERVAS e o PICO de PRODUÇÃO

V. O Caso de PORTUGAL

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

63


A FACTURA ENERGÉTICA EM PORTUGAL

Valores em milhões de US$ a preços de 2004

1965

1974

1980

1990

2000

2004

218,0

2.122,8

5.168,8

4.539,8

Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Junho 2005

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64


INTENSIDADE ENERGÉTICA

CONSUMO PER CAPITA DE PETRÓLEO NA UE

Dinamarca

Suécia

Alemanha

França

Finlândia

Reino Unido

Itália

Holanda

Austria

Irlanda

Belgica e Luxemburgo

Grécia

Espanha

Portugal

Total UE

1970/73

2004

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0

Fonte: BP Statistical Review e Comissão Europeia

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65


EFICIÊNCIA DO USO DO PETRÓLEO EM 2004

Consumo de barris de crude por mil euros de produto.

Alemanha

Austria

França

Irlanda

Itália

Finlândia

Espanha

Holanda

Portugal

Grécia

Bélgica + Luxemburgo

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Fonte: Comissão Europeia, BP Statistical Review of World Energy junho 2005

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66


Consumo Energia Primária em Portugal em 2003

Hidrica + Eólica

+ Geotermica

6%

Outras

Renováveis

11%

Carvão

13%

Gás Natural

10%

Petróleo

60%

Fonte: DGGE Balanço 1990-2003

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67


Balanço Energético de Portugal (2003)

RECURSOS

ENDÓGENOS

15%

RECURSOS

EXÓGENOS

85%

Fonte: DGGE Balanço 1990-2003

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68


Evolução do Consumo de Petróleo em Portugal

CONSUMO (Milhares de barris/Dia)

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Fonte: BP Statistical Review of World Energy junho 2005

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69


Evolução do Consumo de Gás Natural em Portugal

CONSUMO (Mil Milhões de m3)

3,50

3,00

2,50

2,00

1,50

1,00

0,50

0,00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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70


O que fazer ?

● Plano Nacional de Poupança de Energia

● Eficiência Energética

● Cluster Eólico

● Cluster Hídrico

● Cluster Solar

● Aposta na Biomassa

● Biogás

● Transportes

● Nuclear

● Cluster do Mar

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71


O que fazer em Portugal ?

PLANO NACIONAL PARA

A RACIONALIZAÇÃO DO

USO DA ENERGIA

CLUSTER

DO

MAR

APOSTA CLARA NO CLUSTER

DAS ENERGIAS RENOVÁVEIS

● EÓLICA

● HÍDRICA

● SOLAR

● BIOMASSA

A QUESTÃO ENERGÉTICA

É UMA QUESTÃO DE CIDADANIA

● EDUCAR OS CONSUMIDORES

● MUDANÇA DE HÁBITOS

● MINIMIZAR OS DESPERDÍCIOS

UM NOVO MODELO

DE

TRANSPORTES

PLANEAMENTO

INTEGRADO

DO TERRITÓRIO

● AS CIDADES

● O ESPAÇO RURAL

DEBATER

O

NUCLEAR

EFICIÊNCIA ENERGÉTICA

● EDIFÍCIOS

● PARQUE AUTOMÓVEL

● INSTALAÇÕES

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72


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

Portugal

Most significant

petroleum indications

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73


SONDAGEM DE PESQUISA DE HIDROCARBONETOS EM PORTUGAL

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74


PRINCIPAIS ROCHAS GERADORAS E RESERVATÓRIOS RIOS DO

JURÁSSICO E CRETÁCICO CICO DA BACIA LUSITANIANA

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75


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

Portugal Offshore Exploration Wells

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76


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

Seismic acquisition in Portugal

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77


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

Portugal Offshore

- TGS Seismic Surveys

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78


A SITUAÇÃO PETROLÍFERA ACTUAL E O CASO DE PORTUGAL

Portugal

Concession

Status

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79


Alentejo Basin Bloks

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80


“we believe that increased synergy between

research and industry groups on both sides of

the Atlantic will lead to greater drilling

success on these conjugate margins”

S. Kearsey & M. Enachescu

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81


OFFSHORE DO NORDESTE DO CANADA

Orphan Basin

Laurentina

Subbasin

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82


Mauritanian Tertiary Channel Analogue (3D seismic)

20-09-07 António Costa Silva

83


Analogias sísmicas s smicas entre zonas da Bacia do Alentejo e zonas de campos de

petróleo e gás g s da Mauritânia

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84


Obrigado

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85

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