Transport and Global Warming

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Transport and Global Warming - Vibat

Transport and Global Warming

What is the Potential for Carbon Reduction in the

Transport Sector?

Stephan H. Nieweler

Peta Wolmarans

Dave Crowley

Dr. Robin Hickman

Halcrow Consulting Inc.

www.vibat.org

www.halcrow.com

February 2008


Introduction

• Developing our focus in Canada

• Sustainable transportation and land use planning

• Transit-oriented development

Transport modelling (highway, transit, pedestrian) &

accessibility

• Corporate sustainability


Halcrow Consulting Inc.

• Established multi-disciplinary firm with 3 Canadian (Vancouver, Toronto

and Calgary) and 61 international offices

• International research leaders in the field of carbon emissions, able to draw

on global expertise

• Diverse team of urban planners, transport planners and policy experts, with

significant international experience

• Team members have worked on several related projects:

– VIBAT UK/London/Delhi/India – Impact of carbon reduction policies

(backcasting)

– The impact of transit improvements on GHG Emissions (Canada)

Transport planning strategy, modelling

– Station TOD masterplans, urban and regional planning


Discussion

• The global warming problem

• Canadian context

• Strategic policy response

• The evidence gap

• Backcasting

• Available policy packages

• VIBAT-UK

• VIBAT-London

• VIBAT-Delhi and VIBAT-India

Transport & carbon simulator (TC-SIM)

• Playing the game

• Application to Canada

• Final thoughts


IPCC & Stern Review

Context


Global Emissions


Canadian Context


Projections of Canadian GHG Emissions

Based on Jaccard, ‘Hot Air’ and Natural Resources Canada, Emissions Forecast 2006


Based on Jaccard, ‘Hot Air’

Difficulty in Reducing GHG Emissions


How Would Different Sectors Respond?

Based on Jaccard, ‘Hot Air’


UK: The Evidence Gap


The Strategic Policy Response (UK and London)

Carbon emission reduction targets:

• UK Kyoto commitment: a 12.5% reduction in six

greenhouse gases below 1990 levels over the period

2008-2012

• UK domestic target: a 20% reduction in CO2

emissions below 1990 levels by 2010 (DETR, 2000)

• A “path towards” a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions

by 2050 has been adopted by the UK Government

(DTI Energy White Paper, 2003) – based on Royal

Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP,

1994). Now adopted as DCLG target

• GLA and TfL – 60% reduction by 2025 (CCAP, 2006)

• GLA and TfL – Quantified reduction in transport

sector – 22% by 2025 (T2025)


The Strategic Policy Response (Canada)

Carbon emission reduction targets:

• Canada’s Kyoto commitment: a 6% reduction in six

greenhouse gases below 1990 levels over the

period 2008-2012

• Current Government objective: a 20% reduction

from 2006 levels by 2020 (50-70% reduction by

2050)

• Varying provincial targets and measurement

criteria

• BC – 33% reduction from 2007 levels by 2020

• Ontario – 6% reduction from 1990 levels by

2014


The Backcasting Approach

• Baseline and

projection

• Alternative

image(s) of the

future

• Policy measures

and packages

available

• Appraisal, costing,

optimum pathways


www.vibat.org


VIBAT-UK


VIBAT-UK

• A 60% reduction in CO2

emissions in the transport

sector in the UK by 2030

‣ Policy measures

‣ Policy packages

‣ Achievable?


VIBAT UK: Baseline & Target

Unit: million tonnes

of carbon (MtC)

Extrapolated TSGB

(end user)


VIBAT: Images of the Future

New Market Economy

New Smart Social Policy

Key Drivers Economic growth Quality of life

Values Individualism, economic efficiency Community and social welfare,

environmental quality

Globalisation Continuous production in low cost

locations

Slightly more localised production, with

specialisation, clusters and

agglomeration

Economic Growth +2.5% pa = +110%

(2000-2030)

+2.2% pa = +92%

(2000-2030)

Population Change +9% +9%

Role of ICT

High levels of take up and

maximum use by individuals

Substantial take up, but concerns over

those unable to use the technology

(affordability and knowledge)

World Oil Prices $60 a barrel in 2003 prices $80/$100 a barrel in 2003 prices

Governance Central and top down Multi level and partly bottom up


VIBAT: Policy Packaging


The Policy Packages

• PP1: Low Emission Vehicles

• PP2: Alternative Fuels

• PP3: Pricing Regimes

• PP4: Public Transport

• PP5: Walking and Cycling

• PP6: Urban Planning

• PP7: ICT and Travel

• PP8: Soft Measures

• PP9: Ecological Driving and Slower Speeds

• PP10: Freight Logistics

• PP11: Carbon Rationing

• PP12: Oil Prices


VIBAT: Policy Packages

Package 1:

Low Emission

Vehicles

Toyota Prius: 104 g/km

Toyota Prius, 1.5l, 104 g/km

Honda Civic, 1.3l, 109 g/km

VW Golf Diesel TDI, 2l, 154 g/km

Ford Focus, 1.6l, 161 g/km

Lexus Hybrid SUV, RX 400h, 191 g/km

BMW 3-series, 2l, 196 g/km

Ferrari Superamerica, 499 g/km

Policy package target:

High intensity “technology-led”: 90 g/km by 2030

Low intensity “behaviour-led”: 140 g/km

Potential carbon reduction:

18.8 MtC-9.1 MtC


VIBAT: Policy Packages

Package 6:

Urban Planning

(Structured to

Reduce Travel)

Policy package target:

High intensity application -10% bpkm

Low intensity application -2% bpkm

Potential carbon reduction

2.4 MtC-0.5 MtC


VIBAT: The Policy Packages

• Quantification of

carbon reduction

impacts is

difficult

• Likely to vary by

context


Optimum Packaging

VIBAT: Final Policy Packages

Smart Social Policy – Behavioural Change and Technology


VIBAT-London


VIBAT-London


VIBAT-London


TC-SIM London


TC-SIM London

Local Version

Web Version

http://www.vibat.org/vibat_ldn/tcsim/tcsim.html


VIBAT-Delhi and VIBAT-India


Application to Canada?

A typical study methodology

(VIBAT Canada / Vancouver / Toronto etc)

1. Baseline: quantification of existing transport,

technology and carbon policy approaches

2. Evidence base: derivation of local or organisation

carbon reduction potential

(technology/behavioural), including SP analysis

3. Simulation framework design & development;

model design, algorithm development

4. Alternative image(s) of the future

5. Policy packaging using the policy simulator

6. Appraisal of packages

7. Dissemination.


Final Thoughts

• Much debate - transport sector needs to URGENTLY

ACCELERATE its efforts

• [60%] target is very ambitious: major change required

• Need for robust evidence base:

baseline/targets/measures and packages

• Hybrid and alternative fuel uptake is very important

• Relying on technology won’t work – offset by expected

growth in travel

• Behavioural change critical – this includes a contribution

from:

‣ urban planning; road pricing; ecological driving;

smarter choices, etc.

• Only way forward: ”high intensity” behavioural and

technological change; little further growth in travel

60%: an impossible dream unless we act quickly and

bring stakeholders/public along with us ??

www.vibat.org

www.halcrow.com


Transport and Global Warming

What is the Potential for Carbon Reduction in the

Transport Sector?

Stephan H. Nieweler

Peta Wolmarans

Dave Crowley

Dr. Robin Hickman

Halcrow Consulting Inc.

www.vibat.org

www.halcrow.com

February 2008


Halcrow Consulting Inc. Expertise

Halcrow provides:

• Expertise in transport planning, policy and strategy, futures

research, accessibility planning, transport modelling and

economics and traffic engineering;

• Urban planning, environment and sustainability, including

regional and sub-regional development, urban strategy, urban

design and masterplanning, environmental assessment and

ecology, consultation and institutional strengthening and capacity

building;

• Expertise in station and interchange design, TOD, urban metros,

public transport operations, road pricing and tolled highways;

• Support for the group’s engineering teams, taking projects

through to implementation;

• Project management expertise, managing complex multidisciplinary

commissions, and providing assurance of timely and

appropriate project outputs.


• Options/ opportunity

scoping

• Focus group and open

house

• Inputs in SW Area

Plan

• Accessibility strategy

for Poirier Leisure

Complex

• Capturing value from

transport

infrastructure

investment: forum

Sustainable Transportation in Coquitlam


TOD: Edmonds Transit Village Concept Plan

Transportation

Showcase Program

• Vision and framework

for mixed use

development

• Accessibility/ modal

interchange

• Density & integration

• Sense of place/

community

• Safety


Govia :UK’s most sustainable railway

• West Midlands “green railway”

franchise bid

• Exceeding Gov’t sustainability

targets

• Resource conservation, green

design, energy efficiency,

green travel to stations, waste

management, sustainable

construction

• Success in sustainability

• Also Centro, GOSE corporate

sustainability strategies


MoT – GHG impacts associated with goods

movement

• Comparative

assessment of west

coast ports

• Port electrification –

impacts on GHG

emissions


Planning applications: CTRL

• 108 km, 12 local

authorities

• 1,200 development

applications

• Environmental

mitigation and

landscaping

• Sustainable

construction

• Consultation, detailed

planning applications

& ongoing public

liaison


Planning and sustainability: Edinburgh tram

• Responsible for all

approvals

• Detailed design

workshops & design

approval panels

• World Heritage site

• Minimising disruption

• Integration between

modes

• Streetscape integration


Halcrow Consulting Inc. Expertise

Recent related UK experience:

Transport and CO2 reduction in London (VIBAT London, TfL, GLA – 2007-08)

Transport and CO2 reduction in India/Delhi (VIBAT India/Delhi, ADB, 2008)

Transport and CO2 reduction in the UK (VIBAT, DfT – 2004-06)

• North London Sub-Regional Transport Strategy (TfL, 2007)

• Thames Gateway Bridge (TfL, ongoing)

• Thames Gateway Integrated Land Use and Transport Study (GILTS, TfL, 2004-06)

• Canning Town and Royal Docks Development and Transport Options Study (TfL/GLA, LDA,

2005-06)

• Stansted Road Traffic Model (SRTM (BAA, 2005-2007)

• Olympics 2012 Transport Strategy Review (ODA, TfL, 2006-07)

• Aylesbury /Central Leicester/Brighton and Hove Transport Model (2003-2004)

• TfL Independent Engineering Reviews (2006-ongoing) – Greenwich Waterfront Transit, ELT,

ELL, NLL upgrade, King’s Cross Station, DLR Dagenham Dock

• London Congestion Charging Monitoring/Modelling (TfL, 2002-onwards)

• South Coast Multi-Modal Study (SoCoMMs, GOSE, 2000-02)

• South West and Wales Multi-Modal Study (SWARMMs, GOSE, 2000-02)

• South East Regional Airports Study (SERAS, DfT, 2000-04)

• Road Congestion Charging Options Study (ROCOL, DfT/GOL, 1999)

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