Transport and Global Warming

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Transport and Global Warming - Vibat

Transport and Global Warming

What is the Potential for Carbon Reduction in the

Transport Sector?

David Crowley

Stephan Nieweler

Robin Hickman

Halcrow Consulting Inc.

Keith Neuman

Environics Research Group

www.vibat.org

www.halcrow.com

February 2008


Halcrow Consulting Inc.

• Established multi-disciplinary firm with 3 Canadian (Toronto, Calgary and

Vancouver) and 61 international offices

• International research leaders in the field of carbon emissions, able to

draw on global expertise

• Diverse team of urban planners, transport planners and policy experts,

with significant international experience

• Team members have worked on several related projects:

– VIBAT UK/London/Delhi/India – Impact of Carbon Reduction Policies

(Backcasting)

– The impact of transit improvements on GHG Emissions (Canada)

Transport planning strategy, modelling

– Station TOD masterplans, urban and regional planning


Environics Research Group

• Leading Canadian public opinion/market research company –

established in 1970 and wholly Canadian-owned

• Major supplier of public opinion research to the federal government

since the early 1980s

• Environment-energy research practice established in 1987:

– Syndicated studies: Environmental Monitor, Canadian Environmental

Barometer, Focus Canada

– Custom studies: covers full spectrum of environmental issues (air quality,

water quality, waste management, climate change, energy conservation)

– Current/recent projects on consumer transportation and environment for

Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Transport Canada


Discussion

• The global warming problem

• Canadian context

• Growing public concerns and expectations

• Strategic policy response

• The evidence gap

• Backcasting

• Available policy packages

• VIBAT-UK

• VIBAT-London

• VIBAT-Delhi and VIBAT-India

Transport & carbon simulator (TC-SIM)

• Playing the game

• Application to Canada

• Final thoughts


Environment is once again the public’s top concern

Most Important issue facing Canada Today

Environics surveys 1983 - 2007

58

Environment/pollution/climate change/Kyoto

Economy

War/conflict/terrorism/security

Unemployment

Health care

Gas/fuel prices/cost of gas

17

20

0

8

1

Ap Ap Ap

83 84 85

F Mr

86 87

O

88

O

89

N

90

N

91

S

92

S

93

O

94

O

95

O

96

O

97

O

98

O

99

O

00

O Mr

01 02

Jl

02

O Ja Mr Jn

02 03 03 03

O

03

D Ap

03 04

Jl

04

O

04

D Mr

04 05

Jl

05

O

05

D Mr Jn

05 06 06

O

06

1

D Mr Ap My Jn

06 07 07 07 07

16

14

5 6

4

3 3

2 1

*

Jl Au

07 07


IPCC & Stern Review

Context


Global Emissions


Canadian Context


Projections of Canadian GHG Emissions

Based on Jaccard, ‘Hot Air’ and Natural Resources Canada, Emissions Forecast 2006


Based on Jaccard, ‘Hot Air’

Difficulty in Reducing GHG Emissions


How Would Different Sectors Respond?

Based on Jaccard, ‘Hot Air’


UK: The Evidence Gap


The Strategic Policy Response (UK and London)

Carbon emission reduction targets:

• UK Kyoto commitment: a 12.5% reduction in six

greenhouse gases below 1990 levels over the period

2008-2012

• UK domestic target: a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions

below 1990 levels by 2010 (DETR, 2000)

• A “path towards” a 60% reduction in CO2 emissions by

2050 has been adopted by the UK Government (DTI

Energy White Paper, 2003) – based on Royal

Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP, 1994).

Now adopted as DCLG target

• GLA and TfL – 60% reduction by 2025 (CCAP, 2006)

• GLA and TfL – Quantified reduction in transport sector –

22% by 2025 (T2025)


The Strategic Policy Response (Canada)

Carbon emission reduction targets:

• Canada’s Kyoto commitment: a 6% reduction in six

greenhouse gases below 1990 levels over the period

2008-2012

• Current Government objective: a 20% reduction from

2006 levels by 2020 (50-70% reduction by 2050)

• Varying provincial targets and measurement criteria

• BC – 33% reduction from 2007 levels by 2020; just

introduced North America’s first true carbon tax

• Ontario – 6% reduction from 1990 levels by 2014

• Growing public expectation for government leadership

on climate change


Canadians look first to government to take action

Most essential change needed to making progress on climate change

Canadian Environmental Barometer July 2007

46

22

15 13 4

Governments

implementing new

standards and

regulations

Consumers

adjusting their

lifestyles to reduce

their impact

Industry and

business making

changes to the

way they operate

to reduce their

impact

All three equally

essential

Other/dk/na


The Backcasting Approach

• Baseline and

projection

• Alternative

image(s) of the

future

• Policy measures

and packages

available

• Appraisal, costing,

optimum pathways


www.vibat.org


VIBAT-UK


VIBAT-UK

• A 60% reduction in CO2

emissions in the transport

sector in the UK by 2030

‣ Policy measures

‣ Policy packages

‣ Achievable?


VIBAT UK: Baseline & Target

Unit: million tonnes

of carbon (MtC)

Extrapolated TSGB

(end user)


VIBAT: Images of the Future

New Market Economy

New Smart Social Policy

Key Drivers Economic growth Quality of life

Values Individualism, economic efficiency Community and social welfare,

environmental quality

Globalisation Continuous production in low cost

locations

Slightly more localised production, with

specialisation, clusters and

agglomeration

Economic Growth +2.5% pa = +110%

(2000-2030)

+2.2% pa = +92%

(2000-2030)

Population Change +9% +9%

Role of ICT

High levels of take up and

maximum use by individuals

Substantial take up, but concerns over

those unable to use the technology

(affordability and knowledge)

World Oil Prices $60 a barrel in 2003 prices $80/$100 a barrel in 2003 prices

Governance Central and top down Multi level and partly bottom up


VIBAT: Policy Packaging


The Policy Packages

• PP1: Low Emission Vehicles

• PP2: Alternative Fuels

• PP3: Pricing Regimes

• PP4: Public Transport

• PP5: Walking and Cycling

• PP6: Urban Planning

• PP7: ICT and Travel

• PP8: Soft Measures

• PP9: Ecological Driving and Slower Speeds

• PP10: Freight Logistics

• PP11: Carbon Rationing

• PP12: Oil Prices


VIBAT: Policy Packages

Package 1:

Low Emission

Vehicles

Toyota Prius: 104 g/km

Toyota Prius, 1.5l, 104 g/km

Honda Civic, 1.3l, 109 g/km

VW Golf Diesel TDI, 2l, 154 g/km

Ford Focus, 1.6l, 161 g/km

Lexus Hybrid SUV, RX 400h, 191 g/km

BMW 3-series, 2l, 196 g/km

Ferrari Superamerica, 499 g/km

Policy package target:

High intensity “technology-led”: 90 g/km by 2030

Low intensity “behaviour-led”: 140 g/km

Potential carbon reduction:

18.8 MtC-9.1 MtC


VIBAT: Policy Packages

Package 6:

Urban Planning

(Structured to

Reduce Travel)

Policy package target:

High intensity application -10% bpkm

Low intensity application -2% bpkm

Potential carbon reduction

2.4 MtC-0.5 MtC


VIBAT: The Policy Packages

• Quantification of

carbon reduction

impacts is

difficult

• Likely to vary by

context


Optimum Packaging

VIBAT: Final Policy Packages

Smart Social Policy – Behavioural Change and Technology


VIBAT-London


VIBAT-London


VIBAT-London


TC-SIM London


TC-SIM London

Local Version

Web Version

http://www.vibat.org/vibat_ldn/tcsim/tcsim.html


VIBAT-Delhi and VIBAT-India


Application to Canada?

A typical study methodology

(VIBAT Canada / Vancouver / Ottawa etc)

1. Baseline: quantification of existing transport,

technology and carbon policy approaches

2. Evidence base: derivation of local or organisation

carbon reduction potential (technology/behavioural),

including SP analysis

3. Simulation framework design & development; model

design, algorithm development

4. Alternative image(s) of the future recognizing evolving

attitudes, values and expectations.

5. Policy packaging using the policy simulator

6. Appraisal of packages recognizing implementation

issues (acceptability to public)

7. Dissemination.


Final Thoughts

• Much debate - transport sector needs to URGENTLY

ACCELERATE its efforts

• [60%] target is very ambitious: major changes in technology,

policy and lifestyles required

• Need for robust evidence base: baseline/targets/measures and

packages

• Hybrid and alternative fuel uptake is very important

• Relying on technology won’t work – offset by expected growth in

travel

• Behavioural change critical – this includes a contribution from:

urban planning; road pricing; ecological driving; smarter choices

• Only way forward: ”high intensity” behavioural and technological

change; little further growth in travel

60%: an impossible dream unless we act quickly and bring

stakeholders/public along with us ??

www.vibat.org

www.halcrow.com


Transport and Global Warming

What is the Potential for Carbon Reduction in the

Transport Sector?

David Crowley

Stephan Nieweler

Robin Hickman

Halcrow Consulting Inc.

Keith Neuman

Environics Research Group

www.vibat.org

www.halcrow.com

February 2008


Halcrow Consulting Inc. Expertise

Halcrow provides:

• Expertise in transport planning, policy and strategy, futures

research, accessibility planning, transport modelling and

economics and traffic engineering;

• Urban planning, environment and sustainability, including

regional and sub-regional development, urban strategy, urban

design and masterplanning, environmental assessment and

ecology, consultation and institutional strengthening and capacity

building;

• Expertise in station and interchange design, TOD, urban metros,

public transport operations, road pricing and tolled highways;

• Support for the group’s engineering teams, taking projects

through to implementation;

• Project management expertise, managing complex multidisciplinary

commissions, and providing assurance of timely and

appropriate project outputs.


Halcrow Consulting Inc. Expertise

Recent related UK experience:

Transport and CO2 reduction in London (VIBAT London, TfL, GLA – 2007-08)

Transport and CO2 reduction in India/Delhi (VIBAT India/Delhi, ADB, 2008)

Transport and CO2 reduction in the UK (VIBAT, DfT – 2004-06)

• North London Sub-Regional Transport Strategy (TfL, 2007)

• Thames Gateway Bridge (TfL, ongoing)

• Thames Gateway Integrated Land Use and Transport Study (GILTS, TfL, 2004-06)

• Canning Town and Royal Docks Development and Transport Options Study (TfL/GLA, LDA,

2005-06)

• Stansted Road Traffic Model (SRTM (BAA, 2005-2007)

• Olympics 2012 Transport Strategy Review (ODA, TfL, 2006-07)

• Aylesbury /Central Leicester/Brighton and Hove Transport Model (2003-2004)

• TfL Independent Engineering Reviews (2006-ongoing) – Greenwich Waterfront Transit, ELT,

ELL, NLL upgrade, King’s Cross Station, DLR Dagenham Dock

• London Congestion Charging Monitoring/Modelling (TfL, 2002-onwards)

• South Coast Multi-Modal Study (SoCoMMs, GOSE, 2000-02)

• South West and Wales Multi-Modal Study (SWARMMs, GOSE, 2000-02)

• South East Regional Airports Study (SERAS, DfT, 2000-04)

• Road Congestion Charging Options Study (ROCOL, DfT/GOL, 1999)


Environics Research Group

● Established in 1970

● Full-service public opinion and market research

firm

ENVIRONICS

● Canadia-owned company with offices in

Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Calgary, and

Oakland

● International affiliations

– iRIS (Brussels)

– ESOMAR institutes

– Sociovision


Environics Research Group - Expertise

• A full-service research organization offering a wide range of quantitative and

qualitative services

• A consultative approach to working with clients that ensures premium results in

terms of

‣ Project Design

‣ Data collection

‣ Analysis and interpretation

‣ Insight development

‣ Recommendations

• A large team of experienced research professionals specializing in key sectors:

Automotive

Consumer Goods

Financial Services

Health Care

Pharmaceutical

Technology

Public Policy

Municipal Planning

Environmental

Media/Communications


Environics – Public Affairs Research

• Public affairs research provides critical insights into target populations

and groups

‣ Citizens

‣ Stakeholders

‣ Employees

‣ Customers

• Focus on

‣ How they view their role in society

‣ How they want to be governed and managed

‣ Their experiences with institutions, business and gov’t

‣ Their priorities and expectations

• Essential intelligence for organizations in the public, private and nonprofit

sectors


Environics – Public Affairs Clients

• Governments

‣ Federal Government (one of top three suppliers since 1980s)

‣ Provincial governments (Ontario, Alberta, B.C. Manitoba)

‣ Regional and Municipal (GTA-wide)

‣ International (British High Commission)

• Private Sector and business

‣ Forestry industry

‣ Energy and utilities

‣ Business associations (CFIB, Leading Edge BC)

• Non-profit organizations and institutions

‣ Environmental groups (International Fund for Animal Welfare

‣ Health promotion (Canadian Cancer Society, Heart and Stroke Foundation)

‣ Universities (Queens, University of Toronto)

‣ Foundations (Trudeau Foundation, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives)

‣ Media (CBC, Globe and Mail)


Environics – Environment-Energy Energy Practice

• Established research practice on environment, energy and resource issues

in 1987

• Syndicated research studies

‣ FOCUS CANADA – National quarterly surveys – since 1976

‣ FOCUS ONTARIO – Provincial quarterly surveys – since 1985

‣ Environmental Monitor – National twice-yearly surveys – 1987-2002

‣ Canadian Environmental Barometer – National monthly surveys – since Feb. 2007

• Custom research studies across spectrum of issues

‣ Air quality

‣ Water quality

‣ Waste management

‣ Climate change

‣ Energy use/conservation

‣ Consumer values, attitudes and behavior

‣ Business-to-business issues

‣ Advertising effectiveness research


Environics – Invited Presentations in 2007

on Environmental Themes

• Sustainable Prosperity Project – Inaugural Meeting at Montebello (February)

• Electrical Distributors Association – Annual Meeting (March)

• Ontario Power Generation – Senior Management Strategic Retreat (January)

• Ontario Power Authority – LDC Webinar on Energy Conservation Research (April)

• British High Commission – Briefing to Senior Diplomatic Staff (May)

• Ontario Government – Cabinet Committee on Intergovernmental Relations (June)

• British Columbia Ministry of the Environment – Presentation to staff (June)

• Canadian Petroleum Products Institute – Annual Meeting (September)

• Ontario Ministry of the Environment – Presentation to senior management (Sept)

• Ontario Min. of the Environment – Presentation to staff strategic retreat (Oct.)

• 2nd Annual Business of Climate Change Conference – Plenary Presentation (Oct)

• Trudeau Foundation on Climate Change – Research Presentation (November)


Environics – Consumer Transportation and

Environment: Selected Projects

• NRCAN – Survey of Canadian Motorists’ Attitudes, Awareness and Behavior

(2004, 2006)

• NRCAN – One Tonne Challenge Public Opinion Research Program (2003 – 2005)

• NRCAN – Development of New Vehicle Rating System – Psychographic

Segmentation and Consumer Consultations (2005)

Transport Canada – Sustainable Transportation Choices in the Canadian Context

(2008 – now underway)

• Environment Canada - Benchmark Research on Vehicle Scrappage Program

(2008 – now underway)

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