44 07 44 07 07 46 Projections of the adult social care workforce Projections of the adult social care workforce Previously published Skills for Care forecasts of the size of adult social care workforce between Previously 2010 published and 2025 Skills have for not Care been forecasts presented of the in size this of report. adult These social forecasts care workforce are between now considered 2010 and out 2025 of date have and not the been scenarios presented used in would this report. require These updating forecasts to reflect are changes now considered in the sector, out of government date and the policy scenarios and economy used would over require the past updating 5 years. to reflect changes in the sector, government policy and economy over the past 5 years. In the absence of up to date adult social care workforce forecasts this section summarises interim In the absence findings of from up The to date Centre adult for social Workforce care workforce Intelligence forecasts (CfWI) this „Horizon section 2035‟ summarises project. interim findings from The Centre for Workforce Intelligence (CfWI) „Horizon 2035‟ project. The main findings from the CfWI report „Horizon 2035 - Future demand for skills: initial The results‟ main have findings been from provided the CfWI below. report 17 It „Horizon should be 2035 noted - Future that these demand findings for skills: relate initial to the whole results‟ health have and been social provided care below. system 17 (covering It should health, be noted social that care, these and findings public relate health to as the well whole as health voluntary andand social unpaid care system workforces). (covering CfWI health, plan to social publish care, more and detailed public forecasts health well that specifically as voluntary cover and unpaid the adult workforces). social care CfWI workforce plan to in publish the near more future. detailed forecasts that specifically cover the adult social care workforce in the near future. Chart 7.1 shows the projected Chart 7.1: Project total number of hours delivered total Chart change 7.1 shows in hours the projected delivered by Chart the 7.1: health Project and social total number care system of hours (CfWI) delivered by total the change whole in health hours and delivered social by the health and social care system (CfWI) care by the system whole from health 2013 and to social 2035. The care total system hours from required 2013 to by 2035. the system The total in hours 2035 required is projected by the to increase system in by 2035 a median is projected of 3.2bn to hours increase (36 by per a median cent) from of 3.2bn 9.0bn to 12.2bn. hours (36 per cent) from 9.0bn to 12.2bn. Key messages from the CfWI report: Key messages from the CfWI report: • Demand for workforce time is growing faster than population growth. CfWI • Demand project that for demand workforce health time is and growing care workforce faster than time population could grow growth. more than CfWI twice project as fast (+1.3 that demand per cent for as health an annual and care average workforce growth time rate) could as the grow rate more of overall than twice as population fast (+1.3 growth per cent (+0.6 as per an annual cent as average an annual growth average rate) growth as the rate) to of 2035. overall • population The significance growth of (+0.6 long-term per cent conditions: as an annual Over average 80 per growth cent of rate) additional to 2035. demand • The is driven significance by increasing of long-term healthcare conditions: and support Over needs 80 per which cent are of associated additional demand with is long-term driven by conditions. increasing This healthcare relates both and support to the ageing needs population which are and associated a projected with long-term increase in conditions. prevalence This across relates age both groups. to the ageing population and a projected • increase A different in prevalence skill profile across in 2035: age The groups. initial Horizon 2035 results suggest that the • A future different profile skill of demand profile in may 2035: be profoundly The initial different Horizon 2035 to the results picture suggest of demand that today. the future For example, profile of growth demand in demand may be for profoundly lower „levels‟ different of skill to the – such picture as of those demand associated today. For with example, unpaid care, growth support in demand carers for and lower NHS „levels‟ bands of 1-4 skill - are – such projected as those to substantially associated with outstrip unpaid growth care, in support demand carers for higher and skill NHS levels bands associated 1-4 - are projected with medical to substantially and dental outstrip professionals. growth in demand for higher skill levels associated with medical and dental professionals. 17 The full report can be found here: http://www.horizonscanning.org.uk/publications/horizon-2035-futuredemand-for-skills-initial-results/ 17 The full report can be found here: http://www.horizonscanning.org.uk/publications/horizon-2035-futuredemand-for-skills-initial-results/
47 45 Appendix 1 Methodology (1) Adult social care employers (a) Number of adult social care organisations The number of adult social organisations was estimated using ONS annual analysis of UK Business Activity, Size and Location data. Organisations in the following SIC codes (See Table 8.1) were classed as adult social care organisations (although it is acknowledged that some social care operations may fall under other categories). Table 8.1: SIC2007 codes used to estimate the number of adult social care organisations and establishments SIC2007 Description Adult / children split 87100 Residential nursing care activities Assumed 100% adults 87200 Residential care activities for mental retardation, mental health and substance abuse Assumed 100% adults 87300 Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled Assumed 100% adults 87900 Other residential social work activities Mixed adults & children 88100 Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly and disabled Assumed 100% adults 88990 Other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c Mixed adults & children These data are provided at regional level and for England only. The proportion of categories 87900 (Other residential social work activities) and 88990 (Other social work activities without accommodation) that were for adults were estimated using data from Companies House. A random 500 employers were sampled from each of these categories and, via internet searches, Skills for Care was able to categorise each employer as adults, children‟s, or not providing social care. The proportions of employers that were providing adult social care found from these samples were then applied to the whole categories to estimate how many of these employers were delivering adult services.