California & Metro

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CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH

January 2016

California & Metro

UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS


CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH

Del

Norte

Siskiyou

Modoc

Humboldt

Trinity

Shasta

Lassen

Tehama

Plumas

Mendocino

Glenn

Butte

Sierra

Nevada

Lake

Colusa

Sutter

Yuba

Placer

Sonoma

San Francisco

Marin

San Mateo

Napa

Yolo

Solano

Contra

Costa

Alameda

Santa

Clara

Sacramento

San

Joaquin

El Dorado

Amador

Stanislaus

Calaveras

Merced

Alpine

Tuolumne

Mariposa

Madera

Mono

Santa Cruz

San

Benito

Fresno

Inyo

Monterey

Kings

Tulare

California & Metro Forecast

is published by the

Center for Business and Policy Research

University of the Pacific

Eberhardt School of Business

San Luis Obispo

Kern

San Bernardino

Santa Barbara

E-mail

Web

Stockton

Sacramento

cbpr@pacific.edu

Go.Pacific.edu/CBPR

209.946.7385

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Ventura

Los Angeles

Staff

Dr. Jeffrey A. Michael, Director

Dr. Thomas Pogue, Associate Director

Nahila Ahsan, Research Analyst

Jesse Neumann, Economic Research Analyst

Neriah Howard, Student Researcher

Anjul Shingal, Student Researcher

Sydney Stanfill, Student Researcher

Santa Barbara

Ventura

Santa

Barbara

Los Angeles

Orange

San Diego

Riverside

Imperial

UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS


2016-2020

California & Metro

January 2016

Published quarterly by the Center for Business and Policy Research

at the University of the Pacific Eberhardt School of Business.

Copyright © 2016 Center for Business and Policy Research. All rights reserved.

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Center’s judgments

as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither

the Center for Business and Policy Research nor The Regents of the University of

the Pacific shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless

approved by the Center for Business and Policy Research, the publication or distribution

of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this

forecast are prohibited.


Contents

California Highlights .................................................. 5

Forecast Summary .............................................6 - 10

California Forecast Tables .................................11 - 19

California Forecast Charts .................................21 - 25

Fresno MSA .....................................................27 - 30

Merced MSA ....................................................31 - 34

Modesto MSA .................................................. 35 - 38

Oakland MSA ....................................................39 - 42

Sacramento MSA ............................................. 43 - 46

San Francisco MSA ...........................................47 - 50

San Jose MSA ..................................................51 - 54

Stockton MSA ................................................. 55 - 58


FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

Highlights of the January 2016 California Forecast

California is forecast to experience 3.5% growth in real gross state product over the

next 12 months, and maintain steady GSP growth near 3% growth through 2019.

• The California unemployment rate has fallen to 5.8%. We expect the

unemployment rate to continue to drop gradually over the next two years before

stabilizing around 5%.

• Nonfarm payroll jobs have grown at a strong 3% pace for the past three years, but

we project more moderate 2.1% growth in 2016. Job growth will slow further in

2017 and 2018 as the economy approaches full employment, as 1% growth will be

sufficient to keep pace with population and labor force growth. .

• Health Services has become the largest employment sector in the state and is

projected to add an additional 60,000 positions across California in 2016.

• Professional Scientific & Technical Services is a high-paying sector that has fueled

the recovery, having fully recovered pre-recession employment over three years

ago. Growth in this sector will continue but as a slower pace as the cost and labor

constraints begin to slow Silicon Valley growth in 2016.

• Growing tourism and a gradual shift in consumer spending from retail to

restaurants has led the Leisure and Hospitality sector to exceed 4% job growth in

each of the past 4 years, and is projected to add an additional 20,000 jobs in 2016.

• State and local government employment is growing again, and should add about

30,000 jobs statewide in each of the next several years. State and local government

payrolls in California will finally regain their 2008 level in about two years.

• About 40,000 new Construction jobs are anticipated in each of the next three years,

about a 5% annual growth rate. Despite this expected growth, there will still be

fewer Construction jobs in 2020 than before the recession.

• Single-family housing starts are beginning to increase, falling just short of 50,000

units in 2015. We project a substantial increase over the next two years, to 66,000 in

2016, 85,000 units in 2017, before stabilizing near 90,000 units beyond 2017.

• Multi-family housing starts have recovered pre-recession levels, and are projected to

gradually increase from 50,000 units in 2015 to 60,000 units by 2018.

• The severe drought has had a relatively small statewide economic impact. We

estimate total drought-related losses in 2015 at $3-4 billion, less than 0.2% of state

GDP. The El Nino fueled rainy season is off to a promising start, but we don’t

anticipate any significant statewide economic boost if the drought abates.

Center for Business and Policy Research 5


FORECAST SUMMARY

California Outlook

A slowing global economy and a sudden drop in

stock and commodity markets to open the year have

not changed our outlook for steady growth in the

California economy. After multiple delays, the Fed

made its long anticipated initial increase to shortrun

interest rates in December. With inflation still

running well below the 2% target and increasingly

volatile global markets, it is expected that the pace

of additional interest rate increases will be extremely

slow. While many macroeconomic leading indicators

such as the stock market and new manufacturing

orders are showing a slow-down in economic activity

and increasing risk of recession, other indicators

such as employment growth and bond yield curves

suggest a more positive outlook. With real wages

finally growing and a boost from historically low

debt burdens and gasoline costs, U.S. and California

households are in a good position to sustain

improved consumer spending.

California is experiencing substantially faster

job growth than the rest of the U.S., and we are

expecting the State’s economy to maintain steady

3% growth for the next several years even as the

pace of job growth slows from 3% to a still solid

2% in 2016. After 2016, job growth is forecast to

remain positive but slowly decelerate towards 1%

as the unemployment rate stabilizes around a 5%

rate. Significantly faster growth would require

higher population growth which seems unlikely

given the state’s extremely high cost of living and

building housing shortage. While we expect housing

construction to continue its recovery, increasing 50%

over the next three years and provide a significant

economic boost to inland areas, this will barely be

enough to accommodate a projected 1% population

growth rate for California. Despite some challenges,

our overall California forecast remains very positive

as the last remnants of the Great Recession fall away.

However, as we enter 2016, it should be noted

that the risks to this positive outlook are increasing

These risks are not new. For the past two years, we

have identified the primary risks as a global recession

and a disruption to the innovation and technology

economy in the Bay Area that has driven so much of

California’s growth. The much discussed problems in

China and emerging economies and financial market

volatility increase these risks, and as many analysts

have noted, the length of the expansion is getting

towards the point where we have historically seen

recessions if business cycles were to follow historical

Table 1. California Annual Forecast Summary

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Real Gross State Product (% change) 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7

Non-Farm Payroll Employment (% change) 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9

Housing Starts (thousands) 96.7 120.1 141.3 152.6 160.8 164.5

6 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


FORECAST SUMMARY

timing patterns. Thus, while risks are increasing, it

still seems likely that the strengths of the California

economy will maintain its steady, albeit modest,

growth through this increased uncertainty.

THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK

San Joaquin and Alameda counties led the state

in population growth in 2014 and 2015, and largely

as a result, we expect the Oakland and Stockton

metropolitan areas to lead Northern California job

growth in 2016 after five years of San Francisco and

San Jose posting the fastest growth. While we expect

a slow-down from incredible growth rates of recent

years in Peninsula, it should be noted that the Silicon

Valley economy is still the driving force behind much

of this inland growth. Extreme housing costs are once

again pushing households inland. Recent data shows

net commuter income is up sharply, especially in San

Joaquin County, supporting growth in hospitality,

healthcare, trade, state and local government and

construction. While this growth has not and is not

expected to reach the pace of the late 1990s and early

Table 2. Central Valley Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area Non-farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sacramento 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.8

Stockton 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.7 1.4 8.7 8.1 7.5 7.2 7.3

Modesto 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 9.3 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.3

Merced 1.9 0.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 11.0 10.5 9.8 9.5 9.3

Fresno 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 9.9 9.4 8.8 8.6 8.6

California 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.1 5.1

NOTE: Sacramento MSA includes Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, and Yolo counties. Stockton, Merced, Fresno and Modesto MSAs correspond to

San Joaquin, Merced, Fresno and Stanislaus counties.

Table 3. Bay Area Metro Forecast Summary

Metro Area Non-farm Payroll Employment (% change) Unemployment Rate (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

San Francisco 4.3 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.9 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9

San Jose 5.0 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.4 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2

Oakland 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.7

California 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 6.3 5.7 5.3 5.1 5.1

NOTE: San Francisco MSA includes San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Oakland MSA includes Contra Costa and Alameda counties.

San Jose MSA includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties.

Center for Business and Policy Research 7


FORECAST SUMMARY

2000s, it is clear that the Northern California megaregion

is becoming increasingly inter-connected.

After four years of incredible job growth exceeding

a 4% annual rate, we expect both San Francisco

and San Jose will see a large decrease in the pace of

growth in 2016 to 2.1%.With the unemployment rate

below 4% in San Francisco and San Jose and likely to

drop below 4% by the end of the year in the primary

commuter market of the East Bay, and extreme

housing costs limiting population growth, even the

growth of a tech oriented economy like Silicon Valley

is being constrained by limited resources. Slower

growth does not necessarily mean a negative forecast

Job growth will remain solid, and income growth

should remain strong in a region that already has the

highest wages in the country.

The outward push from the Bay Area is projected to

increase job growth in Oakland to nearly 3% in 2016,

while the Stockton area could see gains nearing 4%

with the strongest growth in the southern part of San

Joaquin County closest to the Altamont pass. Other

areas in the San Joaquin Valley further from the Bay

Area will see somewhat slower job growth in 2016,

ranging from 1% in Merced to nearly 3% in Fresno

which will get some boost in construction as activity

on the first segment of high-speed rail construction

is expected to pick up significantly in 2016. Merced’s

growth should pick up in 2017 and beyond as further

expansion of UC-Merced will drive some employment

growth in the smallest metro economy in our forecast

While the drought has had some economic impacts

in parts of the Central Valley agricultural economy,

overall agriculture production has remained near

record levels and drought impacts have not been large

enough to prevent growth in the regional economy

in spite of some media reports of devastation. So far

the rainy season is off to a positive start and could

provide some relief in 2016, but it is too early to make

predictions at this point and the May forecast update

will include more extended discussion of drought

impacts.

As discussed in previous forecasts, Sacramento has

been a bit of a laggard in the recovery. Sacramento

finally surpassed its pre-recession level of employment

in the 4th quarter of 2015, the last major metro area

in the state to achieve this milestone. While there

is a huge amount of optimism around revitalization

in downtown Sacramento, and the area holds

considerable promise for the future, the regional

economy remains dominated by government,

healthcare, and real estate and the biggest business

story in the past five years has been the retention of

a professional basketball team and the replacement

of an outdated arena. As a result, we see continued

steady but unspectacular growth for the Sacramento

region driven by continued improvement in state

government finances and a recovering real estate

market.

THE IMPACT OF MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES

The minimum wage may be the hottest economic

issue in California, and is getting increasing attention

in the national discussion. The state of California

minimum wage increased to $10 on January 1,

capping a 25% increase from $8 to $10 over the

course of eighteen months while the national

minimum wage remains at $7.25. In addition,

there are multiple statewide ballot initiatives in the

work that could put an increase to $15 in front of

California voters soon, and it is safe bet that there

will be bills in the state legislature attempting to pass

further increases before any initiatives make it to

voters. A number of cities have already passed local

ordinances that go beyond the state minimum wage,

most notably San Francisco where the minimum is

already $12.25 and will rise to $15 by 2018. Most

local ordinances have been in high-income coastal

cities, but this fall the lower-cost inland city of

Sacramento passed an increase to $12.50 phased in

through 2020.

The minimum wage has many potential economic

effects, but the most direct and beneficial effect is

8 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


FORECAST SUMMARY

to raise the incomes of low-wage workers. The 25%

increase enjoyed by a minimum wage worker over the

past 18 months is an enormous raise for the average

worker in percentage terms, and can make a large

difference in living standards for many low-income

households. These low-income workers are more

likely to spend their increased earnings than other

workers, potentially providing an additional boost to

the local economy. These benefits can be significant,

particularly in places like the Central Valley where

a large number of jobs pay at or near the minimum

wage.

But as economists are fond of saying, there is no free

lunch. The cost burden of the minimum wage will

generally occur in one of three ways. Consumers may

pay the cost in higher prices for goods and services,

employers may absorb the cost and thus receive lower

profits, or some workers will bear the cost through

fewer jobs or hours worked if higher prices reduce sales

or employers shift to less labor-intensive production

methods.

Proponents of the minimum wage generally argue

that the main effects are through small increases in

prices or decreased profits of employers, and thus the

minimum wage has their desired impact of reducing

income inequality with minimal distortionary effects

on the economy. Opponents argue that the main

impacts are fewer jobs and higher unemployment,

that the minimum wage hurts the competitiveness of

the local economy, and is an inefficient means to help

low-income households since not all minimum wage

workers, such as students, are in poor households.

The magnitude and shape of these costs is the

current subject of much debate and research in

economics. Proponents’ case has been supported in

recent years by research that shows that small changes

in the minimum wage have had little, if any, negative

effect on employment in the restaurant industry. At

least in the short-run, it appears that restaurant owners

are passing some of the costs along in higher prices

and absorbing some in lower profits. However, the

size and scope of minimum wage increases currently

underway and those proposed are much larger and

could have very different effects – especially in the

long-run.

While it is too early to know the effects, we can

anticipate that the effects will be different by industry

due to their varying characteristics.

For instance, the hospitality industry is a large and

growing employment sector with many low-wage

jobs. Because most restaurants are serving a local

market and their competitors are subject to the same

cost pressures, restaurants should have more ability

to increase prices to pay for higher wages. However,

the large minimum wage increases currently proposed

could lead to price increases large enough to encourage

more people to pack their lunches and cook at home

Restaurants could shift to less labor intensive formats

such as counter rather than table service or deploy

technology that allows customers to order and pay

electronically at their table not unlike an ATMs or

pay at the pump gas stations. At a recent conference,

one economist argued that minimum wage increases

would give chain restaurants a comparative advantage

over local eateries because they tend to utilize less

labor intensive food preparation and may have more

ability to deploy technology. While there is little

evidence of these effects in historical episodes of

small wage increases, a move towards a $15 an hour

minimum wage would likely spur large changes to the

industry.

Agriculture is another large industry with many

low/minimum wage jobs in the Central Valley. Most

farmers are what economists call “price takers”,

because they sell into global markets and have little

ability to set their own prices. Thus, farmers have

limited ability to raise costs. In recent years, farm

prices and profits have been very strong, and we expect

most farmers will absorb higher labor costs. Recent

data seems to back this up as both farm wages and

employment have been growing. A big increase in

farm prices and revenue from 2010-12 led to record

Center for Business and Policy Research 9


FORECAST SUMMARY

profits and income for Valley farms. Since 2012, net

farm income has been relatively flat as rising wages

and other costs have consumed much of farms’ recent

revenue growth. However, further increases to the

minimum wage could lead to substantial changes

to the agriculture industry. California farmers are

already facing stiff foreign competition for laborintensive

fruit and vegetable crops, and increases in

the minimum wage could lead to further crop shifts

California agriculture is already shifting towards more

capital and technology intensive methods that lead to

higher-paying and higher-productivity jobs. A higher

minimum wage could accelerate the shift towards

better, higher-paying agricultural jobs that would

benefit the Valley’s economic development even if it

meant fewer farm jobs overall.

Another large and fast-growing source of low and

minimum wage employment are home health care

workers. These positions are often funded with public

money, so there is limited ability to bear the cost of

minimum wages through raising prices or reduced

profits. Instead, the minimum wage will put strains on

public budgets which could result in fewer health care

workers being employed or reduced funding for other

public programs. Thus, the strain on public budgets

could result in some harm to lower-income families

that would offset some of the benefits they could

receive from the minimum wage.

In sum, changes to the minimum wage are likely

to have large effects on the California economy, both

positive and negative. The effects will be especially

large if the minimum wage is increased to $15 per

hour statewide as advocated by many, but it is hard

to predict the shape and extent of the impacts from

a policy change that is so far outside our previous

experience. CBPR will be monitoring the effects and

provide updates in this forecast as more information

becomes available.

10 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income and Gross State Product

Personal Income (Bil. $) 1602.7 1537.1 1583.4 1691.0 1812.3 1849.5 1939.5 2043.8 2144.0 2266.1 2392.3 2517.1 2644.6

Calif. (%Ch) 2.4 -4.1 3.0 6.8 7.2 2.1 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.7 5.6 5.2 5.1

Real Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) 1420.9 1365.2 1373.3 1435.5 1515.2 1536.1 1590.3 1671.2 1731.8 1791.6 1853.2 1911.2 1967.1

(%Ch) -0.7 -3.9 0.6 4.5 5.6 1.4 3.5 5.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9

Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2009$) 1232.8 1221.5 1218.5 1258.2 1327.2 1325.8 1367.9 1427.4 1478.3 1528.8 1585.0 1636.1 1680.4

(%Ch) 0.0 -0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.5 -0.1 3.2 4.4 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.2 2.7

Gross State Product (Bil. $) 1994.5 1915.7 1966.6 2034.0 2125.1 2213.0 2311.6 2417.0 2533.1 2671.4 2805.4 2939.4 3077.5

Calif. (%Ch) 2.2 -3.9 2.7 3.4 4.5 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.7

Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2003.5 1915.7 1936.8 1960.2 2008.3 2055.2 2113.3 2179.1 2245.3 2322.3 2395.2 2464.3 2530.3

Calif. (%Ch) 0.5 -4.4 1.1 1.2 2.5 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Employment -0.5 -4.0 -0.5 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9

Labor Force 1.7 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8

CA Unemployment Rate (%) 7.5 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.2 8.8 7.5 6.2 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

Total Nonfarm

California -1.1 -5.7 -1.1 1.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1

Mining 7.9 -9.3 3.0 7.6 6.0 0.4 1.9 -6.8 -7.7 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.4

Construction -11.8 -21.0 -9.8 0.2 5.1 8.1 6.0 6.6 5.0 5.7 4.7 3.7 3.6

Manufacturing -2.6 -10.1 -3.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.4

Nondurable Goods -2.0 -8.2 -2.4 -0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1

Durable Goods -3.0 -11.2 -3.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility -0.6 -6.0 -1.7 1.7 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.9 2.4 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.5

Wholesale Trade -1.7 -8.3 -0.2 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.3 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.3

Retail Trade -2.9 -7.2 -0.2 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.6 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.1

Financial Activities -6.1 -7.0 -2.9 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.3 1.3 0.1 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2

Prof. and Business Services -1.1 -7.9 0.7 2.8 5.0 4.4 4.0 5.2 4.3 3.9 2.2 1.7 2.3

Edu & Health Services 4.0 2.7 0.6 1.3 4.3 7.1 3.8 3.0 2.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality 0.8 -4.4 -0.1 2.3 4.1 4.9 4.7 4.1 2.6 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.9

Information 1.1 -7.4 -2.8 0.5 1.0 3.1 2.0 3.1 1.6 0.2 2.4 1.7 1.3

Federal Gov't. 0.5 1.1 6.8 -4.5 -1.9 -2.0 -1.3 0.1 -0.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 5.0

State & Local Gov't. 1.0 -1.8 -2.1 -1.4 -1.1 0.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.6

Population and Migration

Population (thous) 36648.9 37012.2 37384.2 37746.5 38109.1 38477.7 38850.4 39227.4 39601.9 39979.2 40360.1 40742.3 41124.2

(%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9

Net Migration (quarterly rate, thous.) 8.6 16.8 21.3 24.9 27.0 29.3 30.2 27.0 23.6 21.5 20.4 20.9 21.2

Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 60.9 36.0 39.1 45.8 56.0 72.6 78.9 96.7 120.1 141.3 152.6 160.8 164.5

Housing Starts Single Family 36.4 26.7 26.7 23.9 28.8 36.7 41.7 48.2 65.7 85.4 92.6 94.8 95.0

Housing Starts Multi-Family 24.5 9.4 12.3 21.9 27.2 35.9 37.1 48.5 54.5 55.9 60.0 66.0 69.4

Consumer Prices

(%Ch) 3.3 -0.4 1.1 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.4

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of

income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 11


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income and Gross State Product

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 1955.0 1974.5 2007.9 2032.6 2056.0 2078.7 2104.7 2128.5 2156.9 2186.0 2219.3 2250.8

Calif. (%Ch) 5.0 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7

Real Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) 1597.7 1615.4 1651.4 1662.3 1676.3 1695.0 1714.4 1725.8 1736.8 1750.0 1770.4 1784.5

(%Ch) 3.4 3.6 5.2 5.3 4.9 4.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.4

Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2009$) 1374.3 1389.5 1410.3 1420.0 1432.3 1447.2 1463.2 1472.7 1483.0 1494.3 1511.3 1522.5

(%Ch) 3.0 3.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.4

Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2341.7 2357.8 2375.6 2409.2 2431.2 2451.9 2481.4 2514.2 2550.8 2586.1 2620.3 2656.3

Calif. (%Ch) 5.1 3.2 5.4 5.1 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.7

Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2136.4 2144.9 2155.2 2175.3 2188.3 2197.8 2215.0 2235.0 2255.6 2275.6 2294.7 2314.8

Calif. (%Ch) 3.4 1.7 3.9 3.7 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.6

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Employment 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.9

Labor Force 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.4

CA Unemployment Rate (%) 7.4 7.2 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.2

Non-farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

Total Non-farm

California 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7

Mining 3.0 1.5 -2.2 -4.4 -8.7 -11.7 -12.0 -11.0 -6.3 -1.3 1.7 3.2

Construction 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.7 5.0 4.5 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.0

Manufacturing 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 1.2 1.5 1.6

Nondurable Goods 0.9 -0.8 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

Durable Goods 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.3 1.6 2.1 2.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility 4.0 4.6 5.1 3.7 4.3 2.7 2.2 3.1 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.9

Wholesale Trade 2.9 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.3 2.5 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7

Retail Trade 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2

Financial Activities 0.4 1.1 2.2 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.8

Prof. and Business Services 3.7 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.8 4.7 4.6 4.1 3.7 4.5 4.7 4.2

Edu. & Health Services 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality 4.6 3.9 4.1 3.4 4.1 4.5 3.4 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.1 1.3

Information 2.5 1.9 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.9

Federal Gov't. -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.7 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9

State & Local Gov't. 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.7 1.0

Population and Migration

Population (Ths.) 38897.5 38992.2 39086.5 39180.6 39274.4 39368.1 39461.6 39555.1 39648.5 39742.4 39836.8 39931.8

(%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Net Migration (Ths.) 30.2 29.3 28.4 27.5 26.6 25.7 24.8 23.9 23.0 22.7 22.1 21.9

Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 79.5 91.0 83.8 106.5 97.3 99.3 109.8 117.1 123.6 129.9 135.4 141.0

Housing Starts Single Family 41.1 43.6 42.0 49.5 47.9 53.4 58.0 62.7 67.7 74.3 80.0 84.6

Housing Starts Multi-Family 38.4 47.4 41.8 57.0 49.4 45.9 51.9 54.5 55.9 55.6 55.4 56.4

Consumer Prices

(%Ch) 2.4 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.9

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of

income that control for the cost of living.

12 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Pacific Forecast for California

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income and Gross State Product

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Bil. $) 2281.2 2312.9 2346.7 2377.0 2407.3 2438.1 2471.4 2502.1 2532.2 2562.6 2597.1 2629.6

Calif. (%Ch) 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1

Real Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) 1797.3 1814.2 1831.6 1846.2 1860.3 1874.7 1890.9 1904.9 1917.8 1931.1 1947.0 1961.2

(%Ch) 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0

Real Disposable Income (Bil. 2009$) 1533.5 1547.8 1565.0 1578.5 1591.7 1604.9 1618.4 1630.9 1642.0 1653.2 1663.4 1675.1

(%Ch) 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7

Gross State Product (Bil. $) 2689.8 2719.4 2755.5 2788.7 2822.7 2854.6 2889.3 2921.4 2956.1 2990.6 3027.1 3061.5

Calif. (%Ch) 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8

Real GSP (Bil. 2009$) 2332.2 2347.4 2369.1 2386.1 2404.7 2421.1 2439.3 2455.1 2472.7 2489.9 2506.5 2523.5

Calif. (%Ch) 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Employment 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Labor Force 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9

CA Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

Non-farm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

Total Non-farm

California 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3

Mining 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6

Construction 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7

Manufacturing 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Nondurable Goods 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Durable Goods 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6

Trans. Warehs. & Utility 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

Wholesale Trade 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3

Retail Trade -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2

Financial Activities -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.2

Prof. and Business Services 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3

Edu. & Health Services 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0

Leisure & Hospitality 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

Information -0.8 2.6 2.2 2.9 2.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.0

Federal Gov't. -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.5 14.7

State & Local Gov't. 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6

Population and Migration

Population (Ths.) 40026.6 40121.6 40216.8 40312.4 40408.0 40503.4 40598.9 40694.5 40789.9 40885.7 40981.4 41076.8

(%Ch) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Net Migration (Ths.) 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.7 20.8 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.2

Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (Annual Rate, Ths.) 142.6 146.2 150.3 150.5 153.4 156.1 158.5 159.5 161.6 163.6 165.0 164.1

Housing Starts Single Family 87.5 89.6 91.9 92.2 93.2 93.0 93.7 94.1 95.3 96.2 95.6 95.3

Housing Starts Multi-Family 55.1 56.6 58.4 58.2 60.2 63.1 64.8 65.4 66.3 67.4 69.5 68.8

Consumer Prices

(%Ch) 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of

income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 13


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 3. Employment Quarterly

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm 15708.2 15830.6 15948.2 16038.1 16179.5 16261.1 16339.6 16414.0 16485.9 16560.0 16633.1 16693.7

Manufacturing 1271.2 1271.9 1269.7 1274.4 1271.6 1267.0 1265.6 1266.9 1271.9 1281.6 1285.1 1287.5

Durable Goods 794.2 800.1 799.2 803.7 802.8 801.0 799.6 800.4 804.9 813.6 816.7 819.1

Wood Products 22.1 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.3

Computer & Electronics 262.2 264.0 264.4 266.8 265.0 264.2 265.2 267.1 270.7 275.0 277.2 279.0

Transportation Equipment 107.7 108.2 107.6 107.3 107.1 106.4 105.7 105.5 105.3 105.1 104.5 103.9

Nondurables 477.0 471.8 470.5 470.6 468.8 466.0 466.0 466.4 467.0 468.0 468.3 468.4

Foods 152.1 147.8 146.6 147.3 147.8 146.3 146.7 147.2 147.7 148.6 149.2 149.7

Non-Manufacturing 14437.0 14558.6 14678.5 14763.8 14907.9 14994.1 15074.1 15147.2 15214.0 15278.3 15348.0 15406.2

Mining 31.4 31.1 30.5 29.9 28.7 27.5 26.8 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5

Construction 677.3 688.7 705.5 716.6 723.6 734.5 740.8 749.0 761.4 772.9 783.1 794.1

Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 523.6 532.6 538.4 536.4 546.0 546.7 550.1 553.2 556.9 560.4 564.2 569.0

Wholesale Trade 716.3 726.0 731.9 739.0 739.7 744.0 747.2 751.5 754.3 757.2 760.9 764.0

Retail Trade 1640.1 1647.3 1652.6 1663.9 1675.0 1682.4 1688.6 1693.8 1697.2 1698.9 1698.5 1697.3

Information 460.9 462.4 471.0 469.8 475.2 471.8 480.0 480.7 481.8 475.4 479.5 476.4

Prof. & Bus. Services 2445.6 2483.3 2506.2 2548.1 2588.1 2601.2 2622.6 2653.7 2684.5 2718.4 2744.7 2764.5

Admin. & Support 1028.9 1042.5 1046.5 1064.3 1079.8 1087.7 1099.6 1121.8 1140.0 1160.8 1178.0 1191.7

Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1191.4 1215.1 1230.2 1253.8 1277.0 1281.6 1290.5 1299.2 1311.8 1325.3 1334.8 1341.3

Mgmt. of Co. 225.3 225.7 229.5 230.0 231.3 231.9 232.5 232.7 232.6 232.2 231.9 231.5

Financial Activities 786.6 790.8 796.8 793.0 796.0 793.5 796.5 796.7 794.8 793.7 792.2 790.7

Real Estate & Rent 267.1 269.0 273.2 272.7 275.1 274.5 276.2 277.8 278.8 280.4 281.6 282.3

Finance & Insurance 519.5 521.7 523.5 520.3 520.9 519.0 520.3 519.0 515.9 513.3 510.6 508.4

Education & Health Service 2433.4 2438.7 2460.3 2474.2 2502.2 2511.9 2527.1 2544.4 2554.1 2564.5 2576.1 2587.0

Education Services 357.5 355.3 363.7 367.1 368.8 364.6 362.1 360.8 358.7 357.2 357.0 356.8

Health Services 2075.9 2083.4 2096.6 2107.1 2133.4 2147.3 2165.0 2183.6 2195.4 2207.3 2219.0 2230.2

Leisure & Hospitality 1761.6 1776.7 1805.7 1812.0 1834.4 1857.3 1868.0 1871.5 1877.5 1882.3 1889.1 1895.6

Other Services 543.5 547.9 549.9 546.3 549.8 551.7 553.0 551.7 549.3 548.1 548.0 546.9

Government 2416.5 2433.3 2429.8 2434.5 2449.2 2471.7 2473.5 2474.4 2475.5 2479.4 2484.5 2493.2

Federal Gov't. 242.2 242.2 241.1 243.0 243.0 243.4 243.1 242.5 241.4 240.0 239.0 238.0

State & Local Gov't. 2174.3 2191.0 2188.7 2191.5 2206.2 2228.3 2230.5 2231.9 2234.1 2239.4 2245.5 2255.2

14 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 3. Employment Quarterly

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm 16757.3 16821.8 16880.3 16934.9 16990.2 17041.2 17089.1 17134.8 17183.1 17231.6 17283.1 17350.8

Manufacturing 1290.4 1294.0 1295.9 1297.7 1300.3 1303.7 1305.8 1307.1 1308.6 1310.1 1311.7 1312.5

Durable Goods 821.7 824.7 826.3 827.9 829.8 832.5 834.1 835.0 836.1 837.5 839.0 840.0

Wood Products 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.4

Computer & Electronics 280.2 281.4 282.1 282.8 283.9 285.2 285.5 286.0 286.7 287.3 288.2 288.5

Transportation Equipment 103.4 103.0 102.8 102.5 102.2 101.8 101.2 100.6 99.8 99.4 98.9 98.5

Nondurables 468.7 469.2 469.5 469.9 470.5 471.2 471.6 472.1 472.4 472.7 472.7 472.5

Foods 150.3 150.9 151.4 151.9 152.4 152.9 153.3 153.7 154.1 154.5 155.0 155.3

Non-Manufacturing 15466.9 15527.9 15584.4 15637.2 15689.9 15737.5 15783.4 15827.7 15874.5 15921.5 15971.4 16038.3

Mining 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3

Construction 805.0 814.5 823.5 832.6 842.1 849.2 856.0 863.4 871.6 880.5 888.0 895.4

Transportation, Warehouse & Util. 573.3 576.7 580.2 583.9 586.9 588.3 589.5 590.6 591.6 592.6 593.6 593.6

Wholesale Trade 767.1 770.0 774.2 777.8 781.1 783.8 786.8 789.4 792.1 794.6 797.7 799.3

Retail Trade 1696.3 1694.6 1693.8 1693.2 1693.3 1694.5 1694.6 1696.7 1699.5 1701.1 1700.7 1700.1

Information 478.0 487.6 489.9 490.3 492.0 496.0 498.3 500.2 501.1 502.2 503.6 505.0

Prof. & Bus. Services 2783.9 2800.7 2816.1 2830.0 2842.8 2850.7 2862.5 2874.6 2889.6 2905.9 2925.2 2941.7

Admin. & Support 1206.5 1220.6 1233.7 1247.7 1260.9 1270.4 1278.7 1288.5 1300.1 1312.7 1326.3 1336.2

Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1346.3 1349.3 1351.8 1352.3 1352.1 1350.7 1354.5 1357.6 1361.4 1365.7 1371.8 1379.0

Mgmt. of Co. 231.1 230.8 230.6 230.1 229.9 229.7 229.3 228.6 228.1 227.5 227.1 226.5

Financial Activities 788.9 785.8 784.2 780.9 777.0 773.9 772.5 772.5 772.9 772.8 772.7 770.7

Real Estate & Rent 282.9 283.5 284.3 284.8 285.3 285.8 286.1 286.2 286.2 286.2 286.4 286.1

Finance & Insurance 506.0 502.3 499.9 496.1 491.7 488.1 486.3 486.3 486.7 486.5 486.3 484.6

Education & Health Service 2594.5 2604.4 2617.7 2627.6 2636.8 2647.9 2660.8 2668.1 2674.7 2682.9 2694.0 2695.9

Education Services 356.3 356.1 356.8 356.9 357.3 357.3 357.2 356.5 355.8 355.0 354.5 353.2

Health Services 2238.1 2248.3 2260.9 2270.7 2279.5 2290.6 2303.6 2311.6 2318.9 2327.9 2339.4 2342.7

Leisure & Hospitality 1904.4 1911.8 1917.3 1926.5 1936.1 1944.5 1947.8 1953.8 1960.4 1965.8 1968.0 1971.6

Other Services 546.3 545.6 545.7 545.2 545.1 545.1 544.9 544.2 543.5 543.1 542.9 542.4

Government 2501.5 2508.5 2513.7 2520.9 2528.3 2535.0 2540.9 2545.4 2548.6 2550.9 2555.9 2593.2

Federal Gov't. 236.9 235.7 234.7 233.6 232.7 231.7 230.8 229.8 228.8 227.8 229.6 263.6

State & Local Gov't. 2264.6 2272.8 2279.0 2287.3 2295.6 2303.3 2310.2 2315.6 2319.8 2323.1 2326.3 2329.6

Center for Business and Policy Research 15


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 4. Employment Annual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

California Payroll Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm 15245.0 14373.9 14215.3 14363.6 14710.7 15184.0 15647.5 16106.7 16449.9 16726.5 16961.6 17159.6 17354.0

Manufacturing 1426.8 1283.5 1244.1 1250.0 1254.4 1256.3 1269.9 1270.7 1271.5 1289.2 1299.4 1307.9 1313.4

Durable Goods 901.1 800.7 773.2 780.9 783.8 783.5 794.1 801.7 804.6 820.6 829.1 835.7 840.9

Wood Products 24.0 19.7 19.0 19.8 19.9 19.0 18.7 18.2 17.7 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.8

Computer & Electronics 300.0 278.6 271.9 275.1 270.0 262.9 262.5 265.1 269.5 279.4 283.5 286.4 288.8

Transportation Equipment 125.1 114.6 108.7 105.0 105.2 106.2 107.4 107.1 105.4 103.7 102.3 100.2 98.3

Nondurables 525.6 482.8 470.9 469.1 470.6 472.8 475.8 469.0 466.8 468.7 470.3 472.2 472.5

Foods 153.0 147.9 147.1 149.4 150.3 150.9 151.5 147.0 147.5 150.0 152.1 153.9 155.6

Non-Manufacturing 13818.2 13090.4 12971.1 13113.6 13456.3 13927.7 14377.5 14836.1 15178.4 15437.2 15662.2 15851.8 16040.6

Mining 28.7 26.1 26.8 28.8 30.5 30.7 31.3 29.1 26.9 27.6 28.4 28.9 29.3

Construction 788.3 622.8 560.0 560.9 589.6 637.4 675.4 720.0 756.0 799.2 836.8 867.9 899.3

Trans., Warehouse & Util. 504.6 474.5 466.5 474.5 487.2 502.6 521.4 541.9 555.1 570.8 584.8 591.1 593.9

Wholesale Trade 703.4 645.1 643.8 657.9 675.7 694.0 714.9 738.7 752.5 765.5 779.2 790.7 800.6

Retail Trade 1640.9 1522.5 1518.5 1547.0 1570.2 1596.3 1634.3 1668.5 1694.6 1696.7 1693.7 1698.0 1699.8

Information 476.3 441.0 428.6 430.8 435.3 448.8 457.9 471.9 479.5 480.4 492.0 500.4 506.7

Prof. & Bus. Services 2241.5 2063.6 2076.9 2134.6 2242.3 2341.4 2435.4 2560.9 2669.8 2773.4 2834.9 2883.2 2950.0

Admin. & Support 952.7 850.4 863.2 882.7 932.5 981.0 1022.6 1069.6 1130.6 1199.2 1253.2 1295.0 1340.0

Prof. Sci. & Tech. 1079.4 1013.2 1015.2 1049.0 1100.4 1139.2 1187.6 1260.6 1306.7 1342.9 1351.7 1359.8 1383.7

Mgmt. of Co. 209.4 200.0 198.6 202.9 209.4 221.2 225.3 230.7 232.5 231.3 230.1 228.4 226.3

Financial Activities 841.9 782.9 760.2 761.9 773.4 782.8 784.9 794.8 795.4 789.4 779.0 772.7 771.2

Real Estate & Rent 275.9 254.8 248.4 247.1 250.8 258.7 266.3 273.9 278.3 282.6 285.0 286.2 286.1

Finance & Insurance 566.0 528.1 511.9 514.8 522.6 524.0 518.6 520.9 517.1 506.8 493.9 486.5 485.1

Education & Health Service 1990.1 2043.9 2055.4 2083.1 2172.2 2325.9 2414.0 2487.2 2547.5 2590.5 2632.5 2671.6 2701.5

Education Services 300.5 304.2 309.5 325.8 336.3 344.6 353.8 366.1 359.7 356.5 357.1 356.1 352.8

Health Services 1689.6 1739.7 1746.0 1757.3 1835.9 1981.3 2060.2 2121.1 2187.8 2233.9 2275.4 2315.5 2348.6

Leisure & Hospitality 1573.0 1503.3 1501.3 1535.7 1598.8 1676.6 1756.1 1827.4 1874.8 1900.2 1931.1 1957.0 1974.1

Other Services 511.6 485.8 484.7 493.5 504.8 517.0 540.2 549.4 550.5 546.7 545.3 543.9 542.4

Government 2517.9 2478.9 2448.2 2404.9 2376.3 2374.4 2411.7 2446.3 2475.7 2496.9 2524.5 2546.5 2571.7

Federal Gov't. 248.3 251.1 268.3 255.5 250.7 245.7 242.4 242.6 241.7 237.4 233.2 229.3 240.7

State & Local Gov't. 2269.6 2227.8 2179.9 2149.4 2125.6 2128.7 2169.3 2203.7 2234.0 2259.5 2291.3 2317.2 2331.0

16 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income 1955.0 1974.5 2007.9 2032.6 2056.0 2078.7 2104.7 2128.5 2156.9 2186.0 2219.3 2250.8

Wages & Salaries 1001.1 1013.1 1034.2 1041.5 1056.8 1067.4 1082.3 1096.5 1112.6 1128.4 1144.8 1160.5

Other Labor Income 236.4 237.0 241.0 243.0 245.8 248.3 250.7 253.1 256.7 260.2 263.5 266.4

Nonfarm 170.3 173.2 175.0 176.8 179.2 180.7 184.2 188.3 190.6 193.2 195.6 198.6

Farm 11.9 11.2 10.8 11.1 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.6 8.1 8.0 8.4 8.1

Property Income 389.5 393.3 396.7 405.6 410.7 416.5 419.5 420.1 425.6 431.9 440.0 448.9

Transfer Payments 297.0 299.1 306.1 311.3 314.3 317.8 322.4 326.1 329.7 332.8 338.9 342.2

Billions 2009 $

Personal Income 1597.7 1615.4 1651.4 1662.3 1676.3 1695.0 1714.4 1725.8 1736.8 1750.0 1770.4 1784.5

Wages & Salaries 818.2 828.9 850.6 851.8 861.6 870.3 881.6 889.0 895.9 903.4 913.2 920.1

Other Labor Income 193.2 193.9 198.2 198.7 200.4 202.5 204.3 205.2 206.7 208.3 210.2 211.2

Nonfarm 139.1 141.7 143.9 144.6 146.1 147.3 150.1 152.7 153.5 154.7 156.1 157.4

Farm 9.7 9.1 8.9 9.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 7.0 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.5

Property Income 318.3 321.8 326.2 331.7 334.9 339.6 341.7 340.7 342.7 345.8 351.0 355.9

Transfer Payments 242.7 244.7 251.8 254.6 256.2 259.1 262.6 264.4 265.5 266.4 270.3 271.3

New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1889.7 1916.4 1978.6 2020.4 2100.8 2123.9 2097.1 2102.6 2122.0 2138.8 2164.7 2180.1

Retail Sales (Billions $) 528.0 528.0 525.1 535.2 542.5 548.0 552.6 560.6 571.8 581.5 587.6 596.8

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) 431.7 432.2 432.1 437.9 442.3 446.8 450.1 454.6 460.4 465.5 468.8 473.1

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates

interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 17


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 5. Personal Income - Quarterly

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income 2281.2 2312.9 2346.7 2377.0 2407.3 2438.1 2471.4 2502.1 2532.2 2562.6 2597.1 2629.6

Wages & Salaries 1176.0 1192.1 1207.7 1223.2 1238.9 1254.7 1270.6 1286.6 1302.9 1319.3 1336.3 1353.2

Other Labor Income 269.5 272.6 276.6 279.1 281.7 284.6 289.2 291.8 294.6 297.5 302.1 305.1

Nonfarm 200.2 202.1 204.3 207.0 209.1 211.2 213.3 215.7 218.0 220.5 223.7 227.0

Farm 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.1 8.0

Property Income 457.4 466.4 474.9 483.5 492.2 500.9 509.3 517.2 524.2 531.1 538.2 545.9

Transfer Payments 345.4 348.6 355.9 358.8 361.9 365.1 372.9 376.7 380.5 384.4 392.5 396.2

Billions 2009 $

Personal Income 1797.3 1814.2 1831.6 1846.2 1860.3 1874.7 1890.9 1904.9 1917.8 1931.1 1947.0 1961.2

Wages & Salaries 926.5 935.0 942.7 950.1 957.4 964.8 972.1 979.5 986.8 994.2 1001.8 1009.3

Other Labor Income 212.3 213.8 215.9 216.8 217.7 218.8 221.2 222.2 223.1 224.2 226.5 227.6

Nonfarm 157.8 158.5 159.5 160.8 161.6 162.4 163.2 164.2 165.1 166.1 167.7 169.3

Farm 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.0

Property Income 360.4 365.8 370.7 375.6 380.4 385.2 389.7 393.7 397.0 400.2 403.4 407.1

Transfer Payments 272.1 273.4 277.8 278.7 279.6 280.7 285.3 286.8 288.2 289.7 294.3 295.5

New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 2188.9 2193.7 2185.5 2179.8 2175.3 2162.1 2154.7 2143.8 2131.6 2117.6 2107.7 2092.6

Retail Sales (Billions $) 605.8 612.2 619.6 626.9 634.5 641.7 648.3 655.6 663.4 670.9 677.8 685.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) 477.3 480.2 483.6 486.9 490.4 493.4 496.1 499.1 502.4 505.6 508.1 511.0

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates

interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

18 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA TABLES

Table 6. Personal Income - Annual

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Billions Current Dollars

Personal Income 1602.7 1537.1 1583.4 1691.0 1812.3 1849.5 1939.5 2043.8 2144.0 2266.1 2392.3 2517.1 2644.6

Wages & Salaries 842.9 799.3 814.5 848.5 903.7 933.9 991.2 1050.0 1105.0 1168.4 1231.2 1294.9 1361.5

Other Labor Income 204.7 197.1 202.9 218.5 220.4 230.7 235.0 244.5 255.2 268.0 280.5 293.3 306.4

Nonfarm 127.7 123.0 124.3 131.5 156.5 160.0 168.4 177.9 189.1 199.1 207.9 216.9 228.2

Farm 5.0 5.8 6.3 9.3 10.0 12.1 12.0 9.3 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.2 8.0

Property Income 330.9 293.5 292.0 330.6 371.0 372.7 389.2 407.4 424.3 453.2 487.9 520.4 549.1

Transfer Payments 218.2 241.1 266.9 268.7 271.6 282.0 293.7 312.4 327.7 343.8 360.4 378.6 398.3

Billions 2009 $

Personal Income 1420.9 1365.2 1373.3 1435.5 1515.2 1536.1 1590.3 1671.2 1731.8 1791.6 1853.2 1911.2 1967.1

Wages & Salaries 747.2 710.0 706.4 720.3 755.5 775.6 812.7 858.6 892.5 923.7 953.7 983.2 1012.7

Other Labor Income 181.5 175.0 175.9 185.5 184.3 191.6 192.7 199.9 206.1 211.9 217.3 222.7 227.9

Nonfarm 113.2 109.2 107.8 111.6 130.8 132.9 138.1 145.5 152.7 157.4 161.0 164.7 169.7

Farm 4.4 5.1 5.5 7.9 8.3 10.0 9.8 7.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.0

Property Income 293.4 260.8 253.2 280.6 310.2 309.5 319.1 333.1 342.7 358.3 377.9 395.2 408.4

Transfer Payments 193.4 214.1 231.4 228.2 227.1 234.2 240.8 255.4 264.7 271.8 279.2 287.5 296.2

New Passenger Car & Truck Reg. 1401.3 1036.2 1105.8 1223.0 1529.2 1711.9 1848.2 2055.9 2115.1 2181.9 2175.7 2136.9 2086.8

Retail Sales (Billions $) 439.3 401.1 420.6 452.9 481.8 502.9 522.6 537.7 566.6 600.6 630.7 659.6 688.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) 389.4 356.2 364.7 384.4 402.8 417.7 428.7 439.8 457.6 474.8 488.6 500.8 512.4

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates

interregional comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 19


CHARTS


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

California Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

10%

California Real Gross State Product

(percent change from one year ago)

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

14%

California Unemployment Rates

(percent)

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Center for Business and Policy Research 21


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

17,500

California Total Nonfarm Employment

(Thousands)

17,000

16,500

16,000

15,500

15,000

14,500

14,000

13,500

13,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,100

California Construction Employment

(Thouands)

1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2,000

California Manufacturing Employment

(Thousands)

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

1,500

1,400

1,300

1,200

1,100

1,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

22 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

700

California Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Employment (Thousands)

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1,000

California Financial Activities Employment

(Thouands)

950

900

850

800

750

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3,100

California Professional and Business

Employment (Thousands)

2,900

2,700

2,500

2,300

2,100

1,900

1,700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Center for Business and Policy Research 23


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

2,900

California Education and Health Services

Employment (Thousands)

2,700

2,500

2,300

2,100

1,900

1,700

1,500

1,300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

550

California Information Employment (Thousands)

500

450

400

350

300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2,400

California State and Local Government

Employment (Thousands)

2,300

2,200

2,100

2,000

1,900

1,800

1,700

1,600

1,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

24 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CALIFORNIA CHARTS

300

California Federal Government Employment

(Thousands)

290

280

270

260

250

240

230

220

210

200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

250

California Housing Starts

(Thousands)

200

150

100

50

0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2,500

California New Passenger & Light Truck

Registrations (Thousands)

2,300

2,100

1,900

1,700

1,500

1,300

1,100

900

700

500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Center for Business and Policy Research 25


METROS


Fresno MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Nonfarm employment in the Fresno Metropolitan Statistical

Area (MSA) is expected to grow by 2.8% for 2016. Nonfarm

employment in the first and second quarters of 2016 is expected

to have a 2.6% and 3.5% increase in employment followed

by 2.7% growth in the third quarter and 2.6% in the fourth

quarter. The sectors that will lead employment growth in 2016

are as follows: Construction & Mining at 15.2% growth,

Leisure & Hospitality at 5.4% growth, and Education & Health

Services at 5.3% growth. Employment is expected to increase in

all sectors except for the Trade, Transportation & Utilities sector,

the Professional & Business Services sector, and the Federal

Government sector. The Financial Activities sector is forecasted

to have less than 0.3% growth in 2016 and will then see declines

between 2017 and 2019.

Real personal income in Fresno is expected to grow 3.7%, or

$30.9 Billion in 2016 or a 3.7% growth rate from the previous

year $31.9 Billion in 2017 or a 3.4% growth rate.

The Fresno MSA’s population is expected to reach 986,800

in 2016 and will grow 1.0% in 2017 and 1.3% in 2018. An

increase in the labor force in 2016 of 0.6% is also expected.

The labor force is projected to maintain about a 1.5% growth

rate for both 2017 and 2018. The unemployment rate in

2016 is expected to decrease to 9.4% from 9.9% in 2015.

Unemployment is expected to continue decreasing every year for

the foreseeable future, declining to 8.4% in 2020.

10%

Fresno Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

360

Fresno Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

8%

340

320

6%

300

4%

280

2%

260

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

240

-2%

220

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

Fresno Unemployment Rates

(percent)

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Fresno Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 27


METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO

Quarterly Outlook for Fresno

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 34.8 35.2 35.8 36.2 36.6 37.0 37.5 37.9 38.4 39.0 39.5 40.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.6 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7

Wages and Salaries 15.4 15.7 15.9 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8

Nonwage Income 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.3

Real Personal Income 28.5 28.8 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.5 31.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.4 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.7 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.0 36.3 36.8 37.1 37.5 37.8 38.2 38.5 38.9 39.3 39.8 40.2

Real Per Capita Income 29.4 29.7 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.5 31.7 31.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 48.6 48.8 49.3 49.4 49.6 49.8 50.1 50.4 50.8 51.3 51.7 52.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.9 3.3 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 314.9 319.1 321.9 321.1 325.4 327.5 330.1 332.2 334.1 336.1 337.6 339.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 4.1 4.3 3.2 3.3 2.7 2.6 3.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.1

Manufacturing 23.4 23.8 24.0 23.7 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.7 4.0 5.3 4.7 3.4 1.6 1.7

Nonmanufacturing 291.5 295.3 297.9 297.4 301.5 303.1 305.2 307.3 309.1 310.8 312.2 313.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 4.2 4.4 3.2 3.4 2.7 2.4 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1

Construction & Mining 14.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 17.6 17.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 4.3 3.4 -2.8 0.7 3.0 6.4 17.4 18.5 18.6 15.0 11.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 62.3 63.7 65.5 64.9 64.5 63.9 64.0 64.3 64.6 64.8 65.0 65.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 4.3 6.1 4.6 3.5 0.3 -2.2 -0.9 0.2 1.4 1.5 1.3

Wholesale Trade 14.0 14.3 14.9 14.9 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.0

Retail Trade 36.4 37.2 38.1 37.6 37.5 36.8 36.9 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.2 37.2

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0

Information 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.8 2.3 4.8 4.9 2.1 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.0 -1.0 -1.5

Financial Activities 12.7 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 1.7 1.8 3.0 3.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.8

Prof & Business Services 32.3 33.3 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.3 33.7 34.2 34.6 35.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 9.5 10.8 13.0 9.8 4.6 1.0 -1.3 -1.1 -0.4 1.7 3.7 5.0

Educ & Health Services 58.1 58.3 58.2 58.9 60.4 61.1 61.9 62.8 63.1 63.4 63.7 64.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.9 4.8 6.4 6.6 4.4 3.7 2.8 2.0

Leisure & Hospitality 30.6 31.1 31.2 31.1 32.0 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.9 34.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.4 3.3 1.6 4.6 7.0 7.3 7.7 5.2 1.5 1.3 1.5

Other Services 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.6 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.1 2.9 2.9 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8

Federal Government 10.0 9.8 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.6 2.3 2.6 -0.6 -1.4 -3.0 -3.9 -3.5 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9

State & Local Government 56.5 56.8 56.9 57.0 58.3 58.5 58.9 59.2 59.3 59.5 59.7 60.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 3.8 2.3 1.5 3.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 968.4 970.5 972.8 975.1 977.5 980.1 982.7 985.4 988.2 991.0 993.9 996.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 440.7 442.9 442.6 444.9 443.5 442.1 443.8 445.2 447.0 448.5 450.2 452.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 1.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%) 11.4 11.1 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.1 8.9 8.8

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 2438 1924 2740 2845 2337 2165 2430 2680 2961 3302 3514 3674

Single-Family 2160 1865 2545 2490 2238 2020 2201 2386 2584 2854 2994 3071

Multifamily 278 59 195 355 98 145 229 294 378 448 520 603

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

28 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO

Quarterly Outlook for Fresno

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 40.6 41.2 41.8 42.3 42.8 43.3 43.9 44.4 44.9 45.5 46.1 46.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.1

Wages and Salaries 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5

Nonwage Income 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.2

Real Personal Income 32.0 32.3 32.6 32.8 33.1 33.3 33.6 33.8 34.0 34.3 34.5 34.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 40.6 41.0 41.5 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.1 43.5 43.8 44.2 44.7 45.1

Real Per Capita Income 32.0 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.8 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.5 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 52.5 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.3 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.2 56.7 57.2 57.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 340.6 342.1 343.4 344.6 345.8 346.9 348.0 349.0 350.1 351.1 352.3 354.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6

Manufacturing 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

Nonmanufacturing 315.1 316.6 317.8 318.9 320.1 321.1 322.2 323.2 324.2 325.2 326.3 328.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6

Construction & Mining 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.8 4.4 3.0 1.6 0.4 -0.9 -1.1 -0.7 -0.3 0.5 1.1 1.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 65.4 65.6 65.8 66.0 66.2 66.4 66.5 66.7 66.9 67.1 67.2 67.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9

Wholesale Trade 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9

Retail Trade 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.2 37.3 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.6 37.7 37.7

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8

Information 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 2.7 2.2 2.9 3.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3

Financial Activities 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.9 -0.2 0.2 0.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services 35.3 35.7 36.1 36.3 36.6 36.8 37.1 37.3 37.5 37.8 38.1 38.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0

Educ & Health Services 64.3 64.6 65.0 65.3 65.6 66.0 66.3 66.6 66.8 67.1 67.5 67.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality 34.2 34.4 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.2 35.4 35.5 35.7 35.8 35.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4

Other Services 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Federal Government 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.1 10.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -0.5 14.5

State & Local Government 60.2 60.5 60.7 61.0 61.2 61.5 61.7 61.8 62.0 62.1 62.2 62.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1000.1 1003.2 1006.4 1009.5 1012.7 1015.7 1018.8 1021.9 1025.0 1028.1 1031.3 1034.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 454.0 455.7 457.3 458.7 460.3 462.0 463.7 464.9 466.0 467.0 468.2 469.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

Unemployment Rate (%) 8.8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3737 3809 3905 3930 4038 4100 4141 4212 4278 4398 4387 4344

Single-Family 3083 3079 3101 3092 3129 3092 3111 3121 3158 3204 3180 3151

Multifamily 653 730 805 838 909 1008 1029 1091 1120 1194 1208 1194

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 29


METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO

Annual Outlook for Fresno

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 28.1 28.1 29.1 30.9 32.4 33.4 34.6 36.4 38.2 40.3 42.5 44.7 46.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 0.2 3.5 6.2 4.7 3.1 3.6 5.3 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0

Wages and Salaries 13.7 13.2 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.6

Nonwage Income 14.4 15.0 16.0 17.5 18.4 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.5 23.8 25.0 26.3

Real Personal Income 24.9 25.0 25.2 26.2 27.1 27.7 28.4 29.8 30.9 31.9 33.0 33.9 34.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 0.4 1.0 4.0 3.1 2.4 2.4 5.0 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 30.8 30.5 31.2 32.8 34.1 34.8 35.7 37.3 38.7 40.4 42.1 43.7 45.3

Real Per Capita Income 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.9 28.5 28.9 29.3 30.5 31.3 31.9 32.6 33.2 33.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.7 44.3 45.4 46.2 47.7 47.7 48.2 49.5 50.6 52.3 54.1 56.0 57.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 1.2 2.5 1.8 3.2 0.0 1.2 2.6 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 311.3 295.4 288.2 288.7 291.5 303.0 313.4 324.0 333.1 339.8 345.2 349.6 354.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -5.1 -2.4 0.2 1.0 3.9 3.4 3.4 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.3

Manufacturing 27.1 25.1 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.1 23.4 24.0 25.1 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.6 -7.4 -3.8 -1.4 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 2.8 4.3 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7

Nonmanufacturing 284.2 270.3 264.0 264.9 267.9 279.9 290.1 300.0 308.1 314.4 319.5 323.7 328.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -4.9 -2.3 0.3 1.1 4.5 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.4

Construction & Mining 18.0 13.9 12.2 11.7 12.4 13.4 14.0 14.1 16.3 17.8 18.0 18.0 18.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -15.1 -22.8 -12.0 -3.9 5.7 8.2 4.4 1.1 15.2 9.7 1.0 -0.4 1.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 59.2 55.6 55.2 57.4 58.1 60.7 62.4 64.7 64.4 65.3 66.1 66.8 67.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -6.0 -0.8 4.0 1.4 4.4 2.9 3.6 -0.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9

Wholesale Trade 12.9 11.9 11.5 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.0 14.8 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9

Retail Trade 35.4 33.1 32.8 33.4 33.8 35.1 36.5 37.5 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.7

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 11.0 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.0 11.9 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.8

Information 4.7 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 13.3 -11.7 -14.1 -1.5 8.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 1.5 -0.2 2.6 1.8 1.5

Financial Activities 14.8 13.8 13.4 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.5 -6.4 -3.1 -3.1 -0.9 0.3 -0.7 2.1 0.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 0.2

Prof & Business Services 30.7 28.2 26.7 27.0 26.8 29.0 31.6 33.7 33.7 35.2 36.4 37.4 38.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 -8.1 -5.0 0.9 -0.4 8.2 8.6 7.1 -0.3 4.5 3.6 2.7 3.1

Educ & Health Services 48.4 49.1 49.2 49.4 51.1 56.1 57.6 59.7 62.8 64.2 65.5 66.7 67.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 1.5 0.2 0.6 3.4 9.7 2.7 3.6 5.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality 27.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 28.0 29.0 30.6 31.9 33.6 34.1 34.8 35.5 35.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -4.7 0.6 1.2 3.3 3.4 5.6 4.1 5.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.3

Other Services 10.6 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.0 -4.4 -1.8 1.5 4.8 3.0 2.5 1.1 1.2 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Federal Government 9.7 9.8 10.7 10.2 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 0.8 8.8 -4.8 0.3 -2.5 -1.5 0.7 -3.0 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6 4.8

State & Local Government 60.2 58.9 56.4 55.6 53.9 54.2 56.3 57.7 59.2 60.1 61.1 61.9 62.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 -2.1 -4.3 -1.4 -3.0 0.6 3.8 2.4 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 911.0 923.0 933.8 942.0 949.3 957.5 967.1 976.4 986.8 998.5 1011.1 1023.5 1035.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 428.6 433.2 438.8 442.7 440.6 439.9 441.0 443.3 446.1 453.0 459.6 465.4 469.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9

Unemployment Rate (%) 10.6 14.7 16.7 16.5 15.2 13.2 11.6 9.9 9.4 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.4

Total Housing Starts 2693 2266 2179 1893 1899 2533 2075 2522 2843 3683 3993 4257 4359

Single-Family 2280 2163 1901 1664 1587 2273 1862 2323 2506 3057 3103 3148 3144

Multifamily 413 102 277 229 312 260 213 198 337 626 890 1109 1215

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

30 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - FRESNO

Merced MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Nonfarm employment in the Merced MSA will increase

by 0.9% in 2016 and is expected to grow an average of 1.8%

each year between 2016 and 2020. Growth is expected in

most sectors in 2016, with the exception of the Information,

Manufacturing, Professional & Business Services and Leisure

and Hospitality sectors. Despite their negative growth in 2016

all of these sectors are expected to see positive growth from

2017 to 2020. Leading in 2016 employment growth rates are

sectors Construction & Mining at 8.3% and State & Local

Government at 5.9%.

Real personal income in Merced is expected to increase to $7.9

Billion dollars in 2016, a 2.8% increase from the previous year.

This increase is accompanied with a 2.3% increase in average

annual wage from $47,900 in 2015 to $49,000 in 2016.

The population in Merced area is expected to reach 274,600

in 2016 and will grow by a further 1.5% in 2017. The labor

force growth is expected to be -0.4% in the first quarter of

2016 but have an overall annual growth of 0.6% in 2016. The

unemployment rate is expected to be at 10.5% in 2016 and will

decrease over the years reaching 9% in 2020.

Merced Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

Merced Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

15%

75

70

10%

65

5%

60

55

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

50

-5%

45

-10%

40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20%

18%

16%

14%

Merced Unemployment Rates

(percent)

200

180

160

140

120

Merced Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

12%

100

10%

80

8%

60

6%

40

4%

20

2%

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 31


METRO SUMMARY - MERCED

Quarterly Outlook for Merced

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 6.0 6.2 5.5 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.5 4.9 5.2 5.5

Wages and Salaries 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3

Nonwage Income 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0

Real Personal Income 7.4 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 4.8 5.9 5.3 3.5 2.7 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 34.1 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.9 35.0 35.3 35.6 35.9 36.2 36.6 37.0

Real Per Capita Income 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.4 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.9 48.2 48.5 48.8 49.2 49.5 49.9 50.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.6 3.4 2.6 1.1 0.8 1.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 62.7 64.0 64.3 64.0 62.9 63.0 63.5 63.9 64.3 64.7 65.1 65.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 5.5 5.3 3.7 0.4 -1.7 -1.2 -0.1 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.5

Manufacturing 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.1 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 21.3 24.7 26.6 16.7 -7.7 -14.4 -17.3 -15.0 -2.8 1.5 1.9 2.0

Nonmanufacturing 52.1 53.0 52.9 52.9 53.2 53.6 54.1 54.5 54.8 55.2 55.5 55.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 2.2 1.6 1.3 2.0 1.0 2.2 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.6

Construction & Mining 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 8.3 14.4 17.9 11.5 11.9 10.7 4.1 11.2 9.7 8.1 8.7 8.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.7 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -0.8 -0.7 0.7 3.2 0.1 -0.2 -1.2 1.0 1.8 1.6 1.4

Wholesale Trade 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Retail Trade 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4

Information 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -25.0 -24.6 -23.8 -21.6 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.4 -0.8

Financial Activities 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.5 0.6 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.1 -0.6

Prof & Business Services 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -11.8 -6.2 -1.2 -3.5 -2.9 -9.9 -8.5 -5.1 -1.4 5.7 5.9 5.6

Educ & Health Services 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 2.9 3.0 1.5 1.7 2.5 5.3 6.0 4.2 3.7 2.7 2.3

Leisure & Hospitality 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 9.1 9.5 4.7 6.9 0.4 0.6 -0.6 -3.0 0.2 0.0 1.8 2.0

Other Services 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 3.0 4.2 2.8 4.5 1.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.2

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 14.7 3.6 3.9 9.5 0.7 2.1 1.5 -0.6 1.6 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2

State & Local Government 16.2 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 18.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 3.3 0.9 0.4 2.8 2.8 6.3 7.7 5.8 3.9 3.0 3.0

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 267.2 268.1 269.1 270.0 271.0 272.1 273.0 274.1 275.1 276.2 277.2 278.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths.) 115.0 116.6 116.2 115.9 116.4 115.5 115.8 116.3 117.0 117.6 118.1 118.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 2.2 1.3 0.7 1.2 -1.0 -0.4 0.3 0.5 1.8 2.0 1.9

Unemployment Rate (%) 12.6 12.4 11.3 11.1 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.8

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 116 270 114 58 414 267 331 431 487 617 802 1038

Single-Family 110 267 114 58 414 267 326 417 458 571 740 968

Multifamily 5 4 0 0 0 0 5 14 29 46 62 70

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

32 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - MERCED

Quarterly Outlook for Merced

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4

Wages and Salaries 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9

Nonwage Income 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.3

Real Personal Income 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 37.4 37.7 38.2 38.6 39.0 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.5 40.9 41.3 41.7

Real Per Capita Income 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.8 31.0 31.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 50.8 51.1 51.5 52.0 52.4 52.8 53.2 53.6 54.1 54.5 55.0 55.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 65.8 66.2 66.5 66.9 67.2 67.5 67.9 68.2 68.5 68.8 69.1 69.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8

Manufacturing 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8

Nonmanufacturing 56.2 56.5 56.8 57.2 57.5 57.8 58.1 58.4 58.6 58.9 59.2 59.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0

Construction & Mining 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 8.2 7.5 7.2 6.8 6.3 5.5 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0

Wholesale Trade 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Retail Trade 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Information 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 3.3 2.8 3.7 3.5 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.8

Financial Activities 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -1.0 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 4.3 3.7 3.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5

Educ & Health Services 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4

Other Services 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 0.6 15.9

State & Local Government 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 279.4 280.42 281.39 282.37 283.36 284.37 285.4 286.4 287.4 288.4 289.4 290.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths.) 119.2 119.7 120.2 120.7 121.2 121.8 122.3 122.9 123.4 123.8 124.3 124.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1152 1315 1350 1359 1381 1365 1370 1375 1389 1397 1392 1390

Single-Family 1069 1221 1249 1258 1277 1257 1262 1267 1281 1290 1281 1280

Multifamily 83 95 101 101 104 107 109 108 107 107 111 110

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 33


METRO SUMMARY - MERCED

Annual Outlook for Merced

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 6.9 6.7 7.1 7.9 8.1 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.6 12.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -1.8 5.3 10.7 2.6 7.2 4.4 4.7 4.1 5.5 5.8 5.6 5.3

Wages and Salaries 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9

Nonwage Income 4.3 4.2 4.6 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.3

Real Personal Income 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -1.6 2.8 8.3 1.1 6.5 3.2 4.4 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 27.4 26.7 27.6 30.2 30.8 32.7 33.8 34.9 35.8 37.2 38.8 40.3 41.9

Real Per Capita Income 24.3 23.7 24.0 25.7 25.7 27.2 27.7 28.5 28.9 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.1 44.1 43.6 43.3 45.9 46.4 47.0 47.9 49.0 50.5 52.2 53.9 55.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 2.4 -1.0 -0.8 6.0 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 59.3 57.1 57.9 58.1 58.8 60.4 62.4 63.5 64.1 65.6 67.0 68.3 69.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -3.7 1.4 0.4 1.2 2.7 3.3 1.9 0.9 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.8

Manufacturing 9.3 8.6 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.7 10.0 10.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -7.9 -2.9 -1.0 2.1 3.6 14.8 5.3 -8.4 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.8

Nonmanufacturing 50.0 48.5 49.5 49.8 50.4 51.7 52.4 53.1 54.6 56.0 57.3 58.5 59.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -3.0 2.1 0.7 1.1 2.6 1.3 1.5 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9

Construction & Mining 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -24.9 -32.0 -2.3 -1.6 4.0 -0.1 8.2 13.0 8.3 8.3 6.5 4.6 4.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -1.4 -0.9 3.5 2.3 0.6 -1.2 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0

Wholesale Trade 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8

Retail Trade 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5

Information 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -12.0 -5.8 1.6 -29.5 -7.4 0.0 -0.1 -18.4 -4.2 0.6 3.1 2.3 2.1

Financial Activities 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.4 -12.3 0.1 -3.6 0.5 -3.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.9 -0.8 -1.7 -0.7 0.1

Prof & Business Services 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.5 -7.7 3.9 4.6 -2.1 -0.4 -9.8 -4.4 -2.3 5.3 3.1 2.6 3.4

Educ & Health Services 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 2.6 4.0 1.6 3.1 11.4 2.6 2.2 4.8 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -6.2 -3.4 2.7 2.3 5.6 8.3 3.2 -0.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.4

Other Services 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -6.8 0.1 1.3 0.6 -0.6 1.2 1.7 2.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -0.1 5.3 -5.8 -5.3 -3.2 8.2 4.0 0.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 6.0

State & Local Government 14.7 15.0 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.5 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.0 5.5 -1.2 0.2 1.1 2.5 1.7 5.9 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.3

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 250.7 253.1 257.1 259.9 262.0 263.9 266.8 270.5 274.6 278.8 282.9 286.9 291.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths.) 106.2 109.6 113.3 114.5 115.2 115.0 115.4 116.0 116.7 118.9 121.0 123.1 124.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 3.2 3.4 1.1 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.4

Unemployment Rate (%) 12.7 16.6 18.0 17.7 16.4 14.5 12.8 11.0 10.5 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.0

Total Housing Starts 363 120 119 126 181 165 169 213 467 1077 1364 1383 1385

Single-Family 282 118 116 99 77 97 162 213 443 999 1260 1275 1274

Multifamily 81 2 3 28 104 68 7 0 24 77 103 108 111

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

34 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


Modesto MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Non-Farm Employment in the Modesto MSA is expected to

grow 2.7% in 2016 and in the first quarter of 2016 grow by

2.6%. The end of 2015 is expected to see high employment

growth rates in the Construction & Mining with a rate of

16.3% in the first quarter. Construction & Mining is trailed

by a distant second sector, Manufacturing at 6.4%. Notable

sectors experiencing negative growth in the first quarter of 2016

include Professional & Business Services at -4.8% and Financial

Activities at -5%.

Real personal income is expected to increase 3.6% in 2016 to

$17.2 Billion. It is predicted that real personal income increase

over 3% between 2016 and 2020. The average annual wage will

steadily increase from an annual rate of 2.4 % growth in 2016 to

4% growth in 2020.

Population in the Modesto MSA is expected to reach 545,100

in 2016, an increase of 1.3% from 2015. The population

is estimated to rise at similar rates each year through 2019.

Modesto’s labor force is expected to experience 1.5% growth

in 2016 after experiencing two years of a decreasing rate.

Unemployment in Modesto will decline to 8.7% in 2016 and

will continue to decline reaching 8.2% in 2020.

15%

Merced Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

190

Modesto Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

180

10%

170

160

5%

150

140

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

130

120

-5%

110

-10%

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

19%

17%

15%

13%

11%

9%

7%

Modesto Unemployment Rates

(percent)

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Modesto Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

5%

3%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 35


METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO

Quarterly Outlook for Modesto

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 19.5 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.6

Wages and Salaries 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.0

Nonwage Income 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4

Real Personal Income 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 4.0 5.2 4.8 4.2 4.6 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.6 36.8 37.3 37.6 37.8 38.2 38.5 38.9 39.2 39.7 40.1 40.6

Real Per Capita Income 29.9 30.1 30.7 30.8 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.5 31.6 31.7 32.0 32.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 48.3 48.4 48.7 48.8 48.8 48.9 49.4 49.7 50.2 50.6 51.2 51.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 162.2 162.5 164.4 164.5 166.0 168.0 168.8 169.8 170.6 171.5 172.3 173.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 3.4 2.6 3.2 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.9

Manufacturing 20.8 19.6 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -8.0 -7.1 -7.5 -4.7 6.5 6.4 7.6 7.8 3.6 2.8 1.6

Nonmanufacturing 141.4 142.9 144.6 144.6 146.1 147.2 147.7 148.5 149.2 149.9 150.7 151.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.9 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.1 2.6 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.0

Construction & Mining 7.3 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 3.9 5.1 9.4 15.4 17.8 16.3 13.9 9.1 7.5 6.7 6.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.9 35.3 35.7 35.8 36.1 36.4 36.5 36.7 36.8 36.9 37.0 37.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.7 2.9 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.2

Wholesale Trade 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3

Retail Trade 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0

Information 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -6.9 -0.2 0.8 1.2 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.2

Financial Activities 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -0.3 1.8 0.9 -1.9 -4.0 -5.0 -3.8 -1.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.6

Prof & Business Services 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.0 14.8 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 6.4 9.8 9.6 3.8 -1.2 -4.8 -5.9 -2.7 1.7 3.7 5.0

Educ & Health Services 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.0 31.3 31.4 31.5 31.7 31.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 5.4 6.0 4.3 2.3 1.5 -0.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality 17.1 17.1 17.4 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.3 5.7 4.5 1.2 3.3 6.8 5.7 7.9 5.0 1.8 1.6 1.6

Other Services 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.4 5.7 4.0 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.7 -0.1 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7

State & Local Government 25.0 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 3.1 1.2 1.1 3.0 2.6 3.9 5.2 3.3 2.3 1.7 1.4

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 533.3 534.4 535.6 536.7 539.8 541.1 542.7 544.3 545.9 547.6 549.2 550.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 241.3 241.3 241.4 240.9 240.5 242.1 243.3 244.3 245.4 246.3 247.2 248.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.5

Unemployment Rate (%) 11.0 10.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 428 412 211 80 679 429 782 918 1089 1300 1566 1806

Single-Family 420 375 138 80 679 429 695 790 925 1106 1347 1558

Multifamily 8 37 74 0 0 0 88 128 163 194 219 247

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

36 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO

Quarterly Outlook for Modesto

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3

Wages and Salaries 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5

Nonwage Income 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6

Real Personal Income 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.0 41.4 41.9 42.3 42.7 43.1 43.6 44.0 44.4 44.8 45.3 45.8

Real Per Capita Income 32.3 32.5 32.7 32.8 33.0 33.1 33.3 33.5 33.7 33.8 34.0 34.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 52.1 52.6 53.1 53.5 54.0 54.5 55.0 55.5 56.2 56.7 57.2 57.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 173.8 174.5 175.3 176.0 176.7 177.3 178.0 178.6 179.3 179.9 180.6 181.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4

Manufacturing 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6

Nonmanufacturing 152.1 152.7 153.5 154.1 154.8 155.4 156.1 156.6 157.3 157.9 158.5 159.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5

Construction & Mining 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.6 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 37.2 37.3 37.4 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.9 38.0 38.1 38.2 38.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8

Wholesale Trade 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7

Retail Trade 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.0

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5

Information 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 4.1 3.6 4.6 4.5 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.1 2.1 2.3 1.8

Financial Activities 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2

Prof & Business Services 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 3.7 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2

Educ & Health Services 31.9 32.1 32.2 32.4 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.4 33.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4

Other Services 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

Federal Government 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -0.3 15.4

State & Local Government 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 552.5 554.1 555.8 557.5 559.1 560.8 562.5 564.3 566.0 567.7 569.5 571.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 249.0 249.8 250.7 251.5 252.2 253.2 254.2 255.1 255.9 256.8 257.7 258.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1985 2143 2290 2357 2422 2466 2510 2524 2562 2588 2614 2624

Single-Family 1724 1859 1980 2041 2094 2118 2155 2164 2191 2210 2220 2226

Multifamily 261 283 310 315 328 348 355 361 371 377 394 398

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 37


METRO SUMMARY - MODESTO

Annual Outlook for Modesto

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 15.7 15.5 16.0 16.8 17.8 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.5 23.7 25.0 26.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 -1.8 3.7 4.9 5.7 3.6 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2

Wages and Salaries 7.0 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.6

Nonwage Income 8.7 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.7

Real Personal Income 14.0 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -1.6 1.3 2.6 4.1 2.9 3.8 4.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 30.9 30.2 31.1 32.4 34.0 34.9 36.3 37.7 39.1 40.8 42.5 44.2 45.9

Real Per Capita Income 27.4 26.8 27.0 27.5 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.9 31.6 32.2 32.9 33.6 34.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 43.7 44.6 44.9 45.7 47.2 47.1 48.0 48.8 50.0 51.9 53.8 55.8 58.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 2.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 -0.3 2.0 1.7 2.4 3.8 3.6 3.9 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 159.6 150.4 149.9 149.1 152.1 157.1 161.5 165.7 170.2 173.4 176.3 179.0 181.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 -5.8 -0.4 -0.5 2.0 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4

Manufacturing 22.6 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.1 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.0 22.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -7.6 -0.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 -0.4 -3.2 6.3 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.6

Nonmanufacturing 137.0 129.5 129.2 128.4 131.3 136.2 140.8 145.6 148.8 151.7 154.5 157.0 159.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -5.4 -0.3 -0.6 2.3 3.8 3.3 3.5 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5

Construction & Mining 9.1 6.6 5.9 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.3 8.2 9.1 9.7 10.3 10.7 11.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -18.8 -27.3 -10.6 -1.6 8.4 11.3 4.9 11.9 11.7 6.6 5.4 4.3 4.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 32.8 31.4 31.6 32.2 33.5 34.5 34.9 36.0 36.7 37.2 37.6 37.9 38.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 -4.4 0.6 1.9 4.0 3.1 1.2 3.1 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8

Wholesale Trade 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7

Retail Trade 21.1 19.5 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.5 21.7 22.4 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.5

Information 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -19.2 -30.0 -4.5 -8.3 -13.6 -5.0 1.7 -1.7 1.7 1.5 4.0 3.0 2.3

Financial Activities 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -7.5 -2.7 -0.9 0.3 0.0 -1.0 -0.8 -2.5 -0.6 -1.0 -0.5 0.3

Prof & Business Services 14.3 13.2 12.5 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.8 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -7.6 -5.2 -1.9 4.6 4.2 4.9 5.5 -2.9 4.2 3.0 2.5 3.2

Educ & Health Services 24.9 25.8 26.7 26.7 27.2 28.8 30.0 31.1 31.3 31.9 32.4 33.0 33.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 3.7 3.5 -0.1 2.1 5.9 4.1 3.5 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.6 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 -5.6 -0.6 -0.6 3.0 5.8 7.4 3.9 5.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4

Other Services 5.8 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 -10.2 -2.7 -3.9 0.2 2.9 6.6 1.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1

Federal Government 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -18.8 -0.9 12.8 -9.0 -0.9 -6.6 -3.9 0.4 0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 5.2

State & Local Government 25.8 24.9 25.2 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.2 25.6 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 -3.2 1.2 -1.8 -1.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 3.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.0

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 509.4 512.1 515.7 518.8 522.7 527.1 532.6 538.3 545.1 551.7 558.3 565.1 572.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2

Labor Force (Ths.) 232.9 235.7 242.8 242.1 242.3 241.7 241.5 241.2 244.8 248.5 251.9 255.5 258.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 1.2 3.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 11.1 15.5 16.9 16.5 14.9 12.9 11.2 9.3 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.2

Total Housing Starts 635 376 270 212 319 311 390 350 1022 1875 2384 2546 2636

Single-Family 533 288 169 132 192 279 375 331 879 1622 2058 2180 2225

Multifamily 103 87 101 80 128 32 15 18 143 253 325 366 411

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

38 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


Oakland MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Nonfarm employment in the Oakland MSA is expected

to increase an overall 2.9% in 2016, with the most growth

expected in the second quarter at 3.4%. It is expected that the

Construction & Mining and Information sectors experience the

largest employment growth in 2016 at 6.4 % and 4.7%. All

sectors are expected to see positive growth with the exception of

the Federal Government sector with is calculated to see -0.7%

growth. Steady annual decreases in employment are expected in

the Federal Government, Other Services and Financial Services

sector from 2017 to 2019.

Real personal income for 2016 is expected to increase to

$143.6 Billion, a 3.4% increase from 2015. Real personal

income is expected to grow over 3% each year between 2016

and 2020.

The Oakland MSA population is expected grow 1.5% for

2016 coming in at a total of 2,810,700. Unemployment in

Oakland is expected to decrease to 4.1% in 2015, down from

6.0% in 2014 and will continue to decrease in the foreseeable

future until it reaches 3.7% in 2020. Additionally, the labor

force will experience a 1.6% increase in 2016.

Oakland Real Personal Income

(Percent change from one year ago)

Oakland Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

12%

1200

10%

1175

8%

1150

1125

6%

1100

4%

1075

2%

1050

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%

1025

1000

975

950

925

900

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12%

Oakland Unemployment Rates

(percent)

200

180

Oakland Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

10%

160

140

8%

120

100

6%

80

4%

60

40

2%

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 39


METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND

Quarterly Outlook for Oakland

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 162.9 165.3 167.2 168.9 170.6 172.7 174.4 176.4 178.9 181.4 184.0 186.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 6.5 6.1 5.5 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.8

Wages and Salaries 73.5 74.5 75.6 75.7 76.9 77.9 79.2 80.3 81.5 82.7 83.9 85.1

Nonwage Income 89.4 90.8 91.7 93.2 93.7 94.8 95.2 96.1 97.3 98.7 100.1 101.4

Real Personal Income* 133.2 135.3 137.6 138.2 139.1 140.8 142.1 143.0 144.0 145.3 146.8 147.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.2 4.5 4.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 59.6 60.2 60.7 61.1 61.5 62.0 62.4 62.9 63.5 64.2 64.9 65.5

Real Per Capita Income* 48.7 49.3 50.0 50.0 50.1 50.6 50.8 51.0 51.1 51.4 51.7 52.0

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 68.4 68.8 69.6 69.6 69.9 70.3 70.9 71.5 72.2 72.8 73.5 74.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 2.7 3.3 3.0 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1068.4 1077.3 1080.0 1081.9 1093.7 1102.1 1111.2 1118.3 1124.0 1129.9 1135.3 1140.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.8 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.3 2.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0

Manufacturing 81.9 82.9 82.9 83.7 84.3 85.1 86.1 86.2 86.5 87.2 87.4 87.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.7 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.4 1.6 1.6

Nonmanufacturing 986.5 994.4 997.1 998.2 1009.4 1016.9 1025.1 1032.2 1037.5 1042.8 1047.9 1052.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.9 2.5 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0

Construction & Mining 60.2 61.0 62.9 63.2 63.5 65.0 66.5 67.2 68.2 69.2 70.0 70.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 5.6 8.3 7.1 5.4 6.6 5.7 6.3 7.3 6.4 5.2 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 191.9 193.7 192.3 192.5 195.5 197.6 199.3 200.9 201.6 202.1 202.7 203.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.9 1.6 1.1 1.9 2.1 3.6 4.4 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.2

Wholesale Trade 46.3 46.5 46.7 46.2 46.3 46.4 46.8 47.1 47.4 47.6 47.9 48.2

Retail Trade 109.8 110.8 109.7 110.4 112.7 114.0 114.8 115.6 115.7 115.8 115.8 115.7

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 35.8 36.3 35.9 35.9 36.6 37.3 37.7 38.2 38.5 38.7 39.0 39.4

Information 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.7 21.7 22.4 22.7 22.8 22.4 22.5 22.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -1.2 1.4 1.1 2.4 2.5 4.9 6.1 5.0 2.8 0.7 -1.0

Financial Activities 49.4 49.2 48.6 47.4 48.2 48.7 49.3 49.9 49.8 49.8 49.8 49.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -1.1 -1.6 -3.6 -2.4 -1.1 1.4 5.2 3.4 2.4 0.9 -0.3

Prof & Business Services 180.2 182.9 185.1 186.0 187.3 186.4 187.2 188.6 191.1 193.7 195.7 197.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 4.7 4.4 3.8 3.9 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.0 3.9 4.6 4.6

Educ & Health Services 176.4 176.5 176.1 176.3 178.0 179.5 181.1 182.9 183.7 184.5 185.3 186.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.7 2.9 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.3 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality 103.1 104.5 105.5 105.4 107.8 110.2 110.9 111.2 111.7 112.1 112.6 113.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.0 3.5 2.2 4.6 5.4 5.1 5.5 3.5 1.7 1.5 1.6

Other Services 37.8 38.0 38.1 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.5 38.3 38.3 38.3 38.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6

Federal Government 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.8 -0.9 0.3 -1.4 -1.5 0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1

State & Local Government 152.5 153.5 153.6 154.2 155.6 155.7 156.3 156.8 157.0 157.3 157.7 158.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.3 2.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 2733.2 2743.7 2754.0 2764.1 2774.7 2785.1 2795.4 2805.6 2815.9 2826.0 2836.0 2845.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4

Labor Force (Ths.) 1357.9 1363.8 1357.7 1364.8 1370.7 1371.2 1377.8 1383.4 1390.8 1397.1 1402.0 1406.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.7

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.8 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 5654 6410 5716 8979 7819 6970 7758 8324 8825 9361 9795 10114

Single-Family 3107 3578 3554 4906 4137 4057 4212 4417 4680 5086 5425 5567

Multifamily 2548 2831 2162 4074 3681 2913 3545 3908 4144 4275 4370 4546

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

40 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND

Quarterly Outlook for Oakland

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 189.0 191.7 194.4 196.9 199.5 202.2 204.9 207.6 210.3 213.1 216.1 218.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5

Wages and Salaries 86.3 87.4 88.6 89.8 91.0 92.2 93.5 94.7 95.9 97.2 98.5 99.8

Nonwage Income 102.8 104.3 105.7 107.1 108.5 110.0 111.4 112.9 114.4 116.0 117.6 119.1

Real Personal Income* 148.9 150.4 151.7 152.9 154.2 155.4 156.8 158.0 159.3 160.6 162.0 163.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 66.2 66.9 67.6 68.2 68.9 69.6 70.3 71.0 71.7 72.4 73.2 73.9

Real Per Capita Income* 52.2 52.5 52.8 53.0 53.3 53.5 53.8 54.0 54.3 54.6 54.9 55.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 75.0 75.7 76.4 77.1 77.9 78.6 79.4 80.2 81.0 81.8 82.6 83.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1145.0 1149.8 1154.3 1158.7 1163.1 1167.1 1170.9 1174.8 1178.7 1182.7 1186.8 1191.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4

Manufacturing 87.8 88.0 88.2 88.3 88.5 88.7 88.9 89.0 89.1 89.2 89.4 89.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5

Nonmanufacturing 1057.3 1061.8 1066.2 1070.5 1074.6 1078.3 1082.1 1085.8 1089.6 1093.5 1097.5 1102.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5

Construction & Mining 71.7 72.5 73.2 74.0 74.7 75.3 75.9 76.5 77.2 77.9 78.5 79.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 203.7 204.1 204.6 205.1 205.6 206.0 206.3 206.7 207.2 207.6 207.9 208.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

Wholesale Trade 48.5 48.7 49.0 49.3 49.6 49.8 50.0 50.2 50.5 50.7 50.9 51.1

Retail Trade 115.6 115.4 115.3 115.2 115.2 115.3 115.2 115.4 115.5 115.6 115.6 115.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 39.7 40.0 40.3 40.6 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.3 41.4 41.4 41.5

Information 22.5 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 2.6 2.2 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.0

Financial Activities 49.7 49.5 49.4 49.3 49.1 48.9 48.9 48.9 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services 198.8 200.2 201.5 202.8 204.1 204.9 206.0 207.2 208.5 209.9 211.6 213.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8

Educ & Health Services 186.9 187.7 188.7 189.5 190.3 191.2 192.2 192.8 193.4 194.1 195.0 195.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality 113.6 114.1 114.5 115.0 115.6 116.2 116.4 116.9 117.3 117.7 117.9 118.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1

Other Services 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Federal Government 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7 14.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 -0.7 14.2

State & Local Government 158.9 159.5 159.9 160.4 161.0 161.5 162.0 162.3 162.6 162.8 163.0 163.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 2855.7 2865.5 2875.4 2885.2 2894.9 2904.7 2914.3 2923.9 2933.5 2943.1 2952.6 2962.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Labor Force (Ths.) 1411.8 1416.1 1420.4 1424.3 1428.4 1432.6 1436.5 1441.1 1445.4 1449.7 1453.9 1457.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 10124 10320 10605 10682 11045 11365 11724 11937 12245 12547 12766 12710

Single-Family 5585 5569 5600 5584 5657 5597 5653 5678 5748 5803 5755 5730

Multifamily 4539 4751 5004 5099 5388 5767 6071 6259 6497 6744 7012 6980

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 41


METRO SUMMARY - OAKLAND

Annual Outlook for Oakland

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 130.1 123.5 126.5 136.7 146.7 151.9 161.5 169.9 177.8 187.8 198.2 209.0 220.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 -5.1 2.4 8.1 7.3 3.6 6.3 5.2 4.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4

Wages and Salaries 63.8 60.3 61.2 63.1 66.9 69.0 72.9 76.5 80.9 85.7 90.4 95.3 100.4

Nonwage Income 66.4 63.2 65.3 73.6 79.8 82.9 88.6 93.3 96.8 102.1 107.8 113.7 119.9

Real Personal Income* 115.4 109.7 109.7 116.0 122.6 126.2 132.5 138.9 143.6 148.5 153.6 158.7 163.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -4.9 0.0 5.8 5.7 2.9 5.0 4.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 52.0 48.6 49.2 52.5 55.5 56.6 59.2 61.3 63.2 65.9 68.6 71.4 74.3

Real Per Capita Income* 46.1 43.2 42.7 44.6 46.4 47.0 48.6 50.2 51.1 52.1 53.1 54.2 55.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 60.7 60.9 63.1 64.5 66.4 66.1 68.1 69.9 71.9 74.6 77.5 80.6 83.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 0.4 3.5 2.3 2.9 -0.3 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1045.8 985.0 964.3 972.8 1002.1 1037.5 1065.2 1089.4 1120.9 1142.6 1160.8 1176.8 1192.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -5.8 -2.1 0.9 3.0 3.5 2.7 2.3 2.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.3

Manufacturing 91.7 81.5 78.6 79.8 79.9 80.0 81.9 84.0 86.5 87.7 88.4 89.0 89.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -11.0 -3.5 1.5 0.2 0.2 2.3 2.6 2.9 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.5

Nonmanufacturing 954.1 903.5 885.7 893.0 922.2 957.5 983.4 1005.4 1034.4 1054.9 1072.4 1087.7 1103.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.3 -5.3 -1.9 0.8 3.3 3.8 2.7 2.2 2.9 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.4

Construction & Mining 66.2 54.8 48.6 48.6 52.9 57.3 59.6 63.7 67.8 71.3 74.3 76.9 79.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3 -17.2 -11.1 0.0 8.9 8.3 4.0 6.9 6.4 5.2 4.3 3.4 3.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 193.1 179.1 173.7 175.5 180.4 185.9 191.3 194.5 201.0 203.4 205.3 207.0 208.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.2 -7.2 -3.0 1.1 2.8 3.0 2.9 1.7 3.3 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6

Wholesale Trade 47.7 43.7 41.9 42.2 43.7 45.2 46.2 46.4 47.2 48.3 49.4 50.3 51.2

Retail Trade 109.4 102.2 100.3 101.1 103.8 107.2 109.5 111.7 115.5 115.6 115.3 115.4 115.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 35.9 33.2 31.5 32.2 32.9 33.5 35.5 36.4 38.2 39.5 40.6 41.2 41.5

Information 27.8 25.3 23.6 22.6 22.1 21.4 21.1 21.5 22.5 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 -9.2 -6.6 -4.3 -2.3 -2.8 -1.4 1.8 4.7 0.3 2.4 1.7 1.3

Financial Activities 52.7 48.0 48.2 47.8 48.8 49.7 49.3 48.2 49.7 49.7 49.2 48.9 49.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -9.3 -8.8 0.4 -0.9 2.2 1.8 -0.7 -2.2 3.1 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.1

Prof & Business Services 163.5 151.3 152.2 157.5 166.5 173.4 179.9 186.2 190.2 198.0 203.3 207.9 213.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 -7.4 0.7 3.5 5.7 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.1 4.1 2.7 2.3 2.8

Educ & Health Services 148.5 152.7 153.4 153.2 160.2 171.5 175.1 177.5 183.0 186.5 189.9 193.1 195.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 2.8 0.4 -0.1 4.6 7.1 2.1 1.3 3.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality 89.1 85.1 85.8 88.2 92.2 98.1 103.2 107.3 111.5 113.3 115.3 117.1 118.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -4.5 0.8 2.9 4.5 6.4 5.2 3.9 4.0 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.1

Other Services 36.1 34.7 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.0 37.8 38.2 38.4 38.2 38.2 38.2 38.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -4.0 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Federal Government 17.1 16.7 15.7 14.6 14.2 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.2 13.0 12.7 13.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -2.3 -5.8 -7.1 -2.6 -3.2 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9 4.6

State & Local Government 160.1 155.8 149.5 149.3 148.6 149.5 152.4 154.8 156.8 158.6 160.7 162.4 163.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 -2.7 -4.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.5

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 2505.0 2539.9 2570.8 2603.9 2641.5 2684.5 2727.6 2769.5 2810.7 2850.8 2890.0 2928.7 2967.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3

Labor Force (Ths.) 1303.2 1308.7 1307.2 1315.8 1337.0 1346.7 1355.3 1366.1 1387.3 1409.1 1426.4 1443.2 1459.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 0.4 -0.1 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 10.1 10.9 10.2 8.8 7.3 6.0 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7

Total Housing Starts 4258 2830 3159 3079 4459 4617 5282 7371 8567 10088 10924 12113 12760

Single-Family 2110 1902 1919 1618 2728 3074 3386 4164 4599 5537 5610 5721 5712

Multifamily 2148 928 1240 1461 1731 1543 1897 3208 3968 4551 5315 6393 7048

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

42 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


Sacramento MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

The Sacramento area is experiencing non-farm employment

growth of 2.3% in 2015 and is expected to see a 2.1% growth

in the first quarter of 2016. This is a slight decrease in growth

compared to what Sacramento saw in 2015, and it is a part

of continuous decline expected to be seen through 2020 with

an average growth rate of 1.8%. When comparing growth

among the sectors, the largest growth in 2016 will be in the

Construction & Mining (6.1%) and Information (5.7%)

in 2016. The Information sector, which has seen negative

employment rates the past few years sees this high growth rate,

but is predicted to have decrease in growth in 2020 of 1.8%.

Real personal income in the Sacramento MSA is total to 3.5%

growth in 2016, bringing real personal income in 2016 to a

total of $93.2 Billion. An average increase of 3.5% is anticipated

for the next five years, bringing real personal income to $107.1

Billion in 2020.

The Sacramento MSA population will increase by 1.3% in

2016 and is expected to increase by and average rate of 1.4%

through 2020. The Sacramento labor force will grow to 1.4% in

2016 after a low rate of 0.6% in 2015. The unemployment rate

will continue to decrease and is expected to decline to 4.7% in

2020.

Sacramento Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

Sacramento Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

10%

1000

8%

950

6%

900

4%

850

2%

800

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

750

-2%

-4%

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

14%

Sacramento Unemployment Rate

(percent)

200

180

Sacramento Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

12%

160

140

10%

120

100

8%

80

6%

60

40

4%

20

2%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 43


METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO

Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 105.9 106.9 108.6 109.5 110.4 111.7 113.1 114.6 116.1 117.7 119.5 121.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.5 5.3 4.7 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.9

Wages and Salaries 53.1 53.7 54.7 54.6 55.1 55.7 56.5 57.3 58.1 59.0 59.8 60.7

Nonwage Income 52.9 53.3 53.9 54.9 55.3 56.0 56.7 57.2 57.9 58.7 59.7 60.6

Real Personal Income (09$) 86.6 87.5 89.4 89.6 90.0 91.1 92.2 92.9 93.5 94.3 95.3 96.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.3 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 47.1 47.4 48.0 48.2 48.5 48.8 49.3 49.8 50.3 50.8 51.4 52.0

Real Per Capita Income (09$) 38.5 38.8 39.5 39.4 39.5 39.8 40.2 40.4 40.5 40.7 41.0 41.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) 59.1 59.4 60.0 59.8 59.9 60.2 60.7 61.2 61.8 62.4 63.0 63.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.2 3.2 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 2.4 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 894.0 899.5 907.5 909.3 916.3 920.7 926.8 932.4 936.3 940.9 945.5 950.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.7 3.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9

Manufacturing 34.9 35.3 35.6 35.3 35.4 35.6 36.0 36.1 36.3 36.6 36.7 36.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.9 3.2 3.6 2.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 1.9 2.0

Nonmanufacturing 859.1 864.2 871.9 874.0 880.9 885.1 890.7 896.4 900.0 904.4 908.8 913.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9

Construction & Mining 46.0 46.8 48.3 47.5 48.1 48.8 49.7 50.8 51.6 52.4 53.1 53.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 4.8 6.5 3.8 4.6 4.3 3.0 7.0 7.2 7.3 6.7 6.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 144.0 144.9 145.4 147.1 148.6 149.2 149.7 150.4 151.0 151.7 152.1 152.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.7 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4

Wholesale Trade 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.6

Retail Trade 95.7 96.7 97.8 99.3 99.8 100.3 100.4 100.8 101.2 101.5 101.5 101.6

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 23.5 23.7 23.1 23.3 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3

Information 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.4 13.5 13.6 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.4 14.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -6.2 -3.4 -1.0 -2.2 -2.0 -0.5 3.8 7.2 7.5 4.5 1.9 0.0

Financial Activities 48.5 49.2 49.9 48.7 49.3 50.3 51.0 51.6 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 0.5 2.6 0.4 1.6 2.2 2.4 6.0 4.4 2.3 0.8 -0.3

Prof & Business Services 118.5 120.7 122.8 122.6 122.6 121.5 122.2 123.3 124.3 125.9 127.2 128.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 3.7 4.4 2.2 3.5 0.7 -0.5 0.5 1.4 3.6 4.1 4.0

Educ & Health Services 137.4 136.2 137.3 137.9 137.9 137.9 138.8 139.8 140.4 141.1 141.8 142.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 3.2 3.8 2.9 0.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality 92.3 92.8 93.8 96.7 100.4 101.9 102.4 102.6 102.9 103.1 103.5 103.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 3.1 3.3 5.1 8.8 9.8 9.2 6.1 2.5 1.2 1.0 1.3

Other Services 30.8 30.7 31.5 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 4.1 6.1 2.3 1.0 1.3 -0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4

Federal Government 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.3 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4

State & Local Government 214.3 215.7 215.9 215.6 216.0 217.0 217.9 218.8 219.2 220.0 220.8 222.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 2251.1 2257.6 2264.7 2272.0 2279.4 2286.9 2294.3 2301.8 2309.6 2317.4 2325.2 2333.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) 1050.4 1051.6 1048.3 1057.0 1059.3 1058.9 1063.8 1068.0 1073.6 1078.5 1082.7 1086.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7

Unemployment Rate (%) 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4537 4222 4584 6819 7236 7356 7607 9082 10306 11495 12409 13029

Single-Family 4220 3986 3927 6139 6125 6099 6145 7194 8078 9018 9744 10256

Multifamily 317 235 657 681 1111 1257 1462 1888 2228 2477 2665 2773

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

44 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO

Quarterly Outlook for Sacramento

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 123.0 124.7 126.7 128.4 130.2 132.0 133.9 135.7 137.4 139.2 141.2 143.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5

Wages and Salaries 61.6 62.4 63.3 64.1 65.0 65.9 66.8 67.8 68.7 69.6 70.6 71.5

Nonwage Income 61.4 62.3 63.4 64.3 65.2 66.0 67.1 67.9 68.8 69.6 70.7 71.6

Real Personal Income (09$) 96.9 97.8 98.9 99.7 100.6 101.5 102.4 103.3 104.1 104.9 105.9 106.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 52.5 53.1 53.7 54.3 54.8 55.4 56.0 56.5 57.0 57.6 58.2 58.8

Real Per Capita Income (09$) 41.4 41.6 41.9 42.1 42.4 42.6 42.8 43.0 43.2 43.4 43.6 43.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) 64.2 64.8 65.4 66.0 66.7 67.3 67.9 68.6 69.3 69.9 70.6 71.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 954.4 958.7 962.8 967.1 971.5 975.4 979.4 983.2 987.1 991.0 995.1 1000.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7

Manufacturing 36.9 37.1 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.5 37.5 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.8 37.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

Nonmanufacturing 917.5 921.6 925.7 929.9 934.1 938.0 941.8 945.6 949.4 953.3 957.2 962.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8

Construction & Mining 54.6 55.3 55.9 56.6 57.3 57.8 58.4 58.9 59.5 60.2 60.8 61.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 152.9 153.2 153.6 154.0 154.4 154.8 155.1 155.6 156.1 156.5 156.9 157.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9

Wholesale Trade 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1

Retail Trade 101.6 101.7 101.7 101.8 101.9 102.1 102.3 102.5 102.8 103.1 103.2 103.3

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7

Information 14.5 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 3.6 3.0 3.5 3.7 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.6

Financial Activities 51.4 51.2 51.2 51.0 50.9 50.7 50.7 50.8 50.9 51.0 51.0 51.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4

Prof & Business Services 129.2 130.0 130.9 131.8 132.6 133.2 134.0 134.7 135.6 136.6 137.7 138.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0

Educ & Health Services 143.1 143.8 144.7 145.4 146.1 146.9 147.8 148.4 149.0 149.7 150.5 150.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality 104.4 104.8 105.2 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.1 107.5 107.9 108.3 108.5 108.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1

Other Services 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3

Federal Government 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.1 15.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 0.1 15.2

State & Local Government 223.1 224.2 225.0 226.1 227.2 228.2 229.2 230.0 230.7 231.4 232.1 232.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 2341.3 2349.6 2358.0 2366.5 2375.0 2383.6 2392.2 2400.8 2409.6 2418.3 2427.1 2435.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) 1091.2 1095.2 1099.6 1103.8 1108.1 1112.5 1116.9 1121.1 1125.2 1129.0 1132.8 1136.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 13368 13747 13990 13985 14215 14232 14442 14573 14830 15051 15100 15018

Single-Family 10570 10825 10940 10909 10989 10802 10844 10895 11041 11153 11066 11023

Multifamily 2799 2922 3050 3076 3225 3430 3597 3678 3789 3898 4033 3995

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 45


METRO SUMMARY - SACRAMENTO

Annual Outlook for Sacramento

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 87.4 85.8 87.5 92.6 98.0 100.9 105.2 110.1 115.4 122.2 129.3 136.5 144.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 -1.9 2.1 5.8 5.8 3.0 4.2 4.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.4

Wages and Salaries 47.2 45.3 44.9 46.3 48.6 50.2 52.6 55.0 57.7 61.1 64.6 68.2 72.0

Nonwage Income 40.2 40.5 42.6 46.3 49.4 50.8 52.6 55.0 57.6 61.0 64.7 68.3 72.0

Real Personal Income (09$) 77.5 76.2 75.9 78.6 81.9 83.8 86.3 90.0 93.2 96.6 100.2 103.7 107.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 -1.7 -0.3 3.5 4.2 2.3 2.9 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 41.4 40.2 40.6 42.5 44.6 45.4 46.8 48.4 50.0 52.3 54.5 56.8 59.0

Real Per Capita Income (09$) 36.7 35.7 35.2 36.1 37.3 37.7 38.4 39.6 40.4 41.3 42.3 43.1 43.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) 52.3 53.1 54.1 55.9 57.4 57.6 58.8 60.0 61.5 63.9 66.4 68.9 71.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 1.4 1.9 3.4 2.7 0.3 2.0 2.1 2.6 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 897.7 848.6 825.8 823.4 842.5 866.8 890.8 913.5 934.1 952.1 969.2 985.2 1000.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -5.5 -2.7 -0.3 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6

Manufacturing 38.7 34.4 32.8 33.2 33.9 34.0 34.8 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.3 37.6 37.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -5.2 -11.1 -4.7 1.3 2.1 0.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8

Nonmanufacturing 858.9 814.1 792.9 790.2 808.6 832.8 856.0 878.0 897.9 915.3 931.9 947.5 963.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 -5.2 -2.6 -0.3 2.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6

Construction & Mining 56.9 44.1 38.8 37.4 38.8 43.7 46.0 48.2 51.1 54.2 56.9 59.3 61.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -15.9 -22.6 -11.6 -3.7 3.8 12.7 5.2 4.8 6.1 6.0 5.0 4.1 4.0

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 146.7 135.0 132.6 134.1 138.9 141.7 143.7 147.6 150.7 152.7 154.2 155.8 157.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -8.0 -1.7 1.2 3.6 2.0 1.4 2.7 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.9

Wholesale Trade 26.5 24.1 22.8 23.6 25.2 25.0 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.1

Retail Trade 95.1 87.7 88.0 89.4 91.8 93.8 95.6 99.3 101.0 101.6 101.9 102.7 103.3

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 25.1 23.2 21.8 21.1 21.9 22.9 23.4 23.7 24.7 25.4 26.1 26.5 26.7

Information 19.2 18.3 17.2 16.3 15.6 14.8 13.7 13.5 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -4.8 -6.0 -5.0 -4.6 -5.2 -6.9 -1.4 5.7 1.4 3.1 2.2 1.8

Financial Activities 57.2 52.9 48.3 46.7 48.2 49.4 48.7 49.5 51.4 51.4 50.9 50.8 51.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 -7.5 -8.6 -3.4 3.3 2.5 -1.4 1.7 3.8 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.4

Prof & Business Services 110.1 101.3 102.3 104.4 111.1 114.6 119.2 122.4 123.9 128.7 132.1 135.2 139.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -8.1 1.1 2.1 6.4 3.2 4.0 2.7 1.3 3.8 2.7 2.4 3.0

Educ & Health Services 115.2 116.6 115.1 117.0 121.3 128.4 135.0 137.8 140.0 142.8 145.8 148.7 151.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 1.2 -1.3 1.6 3.8 5.8 5.2 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality 85.8 81.9 80.2 81.7 84.5 88.7 92.0 98.2 102.7 104.1 106.0 107.7 108.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -4.5 -2.0 1.8 3.5 5.0 3.6 6.7 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.1

Other Services 29.6 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.6 29.0 30.4 31.2 31.1 31.1 31.2 31.3 31.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 -2.5 -2.4 -0.5 2.0 1.6 4.7 2.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4

Federal Government 12.5 13.3 14.6 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.2 13.0 13.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 6.3 10.6 -4.1 -1.9 -1.9 0.2 0.1 0.3 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 5.4

State & Local Government 225.8 222.0 215.6 210.6 207.8 209.1 213.9 216.1 219.0 222.5 226.6 230.3 233.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -1.7 -2.9 -2.3 -1.3 0.6 2.3 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 2111.2 2135.3 2157.2 2178.0 2198.1 2221.1 2247.7 2275.8 2305.8 2337.3 2370.8 2405.2 2440.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) 1044.7 1050.6 1048.3 1044.3 1049.8 1046.7 1049.2 1055.9 1071.0 1088.9 1106.0 1123.0 1138.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 7.1 10.9 12.4 11.8 10.3 8.7 7.2 5.7 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7

Total Housing Starts 5531 2925 2563 2814 3422 4136 4365 6499 9622 13139 14105 14724 15023

Single-Family 4291 2721 2247 2070 2942 3556 4001 5572 7609 10349 10910 10983 10991

Multifamily 1241 204 316 744 481 580 363 926 2014 2790 3195 3741 4033

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

46 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


San Francisco MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Nonfarm employment in the San Francisco MSA is expected

to grow by 2.1% in 2016, which is down from the 4.3%

growth seen in 2015. In the first quarter of 2016, job growth in

nonfarm employment is expected to be 2.8%, but by the fourth

quarter of 2016 drop to 1.8%. When comparing employment

rates between sectors in 2016, the following sectors lead

growth: Construction & Mining (12%), Information (5%)

and Education & Health Services (3.4%). While these sectors

seen reasonable growth, four sectors, Manufacturing, Leisure

& Hospitality, Other Services, and Federal Government all are

expected to see negative growth rates in 2016.

Real Personal Income is expected grow 3.9% in 2016 and will

average around 3.8% through 2020. Real Per Capita Income

is expected to increase and will reach an estimated $90,600 in

2020.

The San Francisco MSA population is expected to reach

1,647,100 in 2016, an increase of 0.9% from the previous

year. The labor force growth rate for 2016 is estimated to be

1.7% which is the highest rate between 2016 and 2019. The

unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, reaching

3.2% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2020.

San Francisco Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

San Francisco Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

20%

1150

15%

1100

10%

1050

5%

1000

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-5%

950

900

-10%

850

-15%

800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

13%

San Francisco Unemployment Rates (percent)

200

180

San Francisco Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

11%

160

140

9%

120

100

7%

80

5%

60

40

3%

1%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 47


METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO

Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 146.8 148.2 152.2 154.6 157.2 158.5 160.7 162.4 164.9 167.0 169.9 172.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.6 5.3 7.2 7.4 7.0 6.9 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.4 5.8 6.3

Wages and Salaries 104.9 106.3 109.7 111.2 113.6 114.6 116.3 117.8 119.7 121.4 123.3 125.1

Nonwage Income 41.9 41.9 42.5 43.4 43.5 43.9 44.3 44.6 45.2 45.6 46.6 47.6

Real Personal Income (2009$) 120.0 121.3 125.2 126.5 128.1 129.2 130.9 131.7 132.8 133.7 135.6 136.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.0 6.9 7.1 6.8 6.6 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.0

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 90.9 91.4 93.6 94.8 96.2 96.7 97.8 98.7 100.0 101.1 102.7 104.1

Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 74.3 74.8 77.0 77.6 78.4 78.9 79.7 80.0 80.5 80.9 81.9 82.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 102.9 103.3 105.3 105.8 106.9 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.9 112.0 113.2 114.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.4 2.0 4.2 4.1 3.8 4.1 3.2 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1016.5 1025.5 1038.7 1048.2 1060.1 1062.4 1067.5 1071.5 1076.7 1081.2 1086.5 1090.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.3 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.7

Manufacturing 35.9 35.9 36.3 36.5 36.3 35.7 35.3 35.0 35.1 35.3 35.3 35.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 2.1 2.9 3.0 1.0 -0.6 -2.8 -4.3 -3.4 -1.2 0.1 1.0

Nonmanufacturing 980.5 989.6 1002.4 1011.7 1023.8 1026.7 1032.2 1036.5 1041.7 1045.9 1051.2 1054.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8

Construction & Mining 35.7 35.7 36.5 37.0 38.8 40.0 41.3 42.6 43.1 43.6 44.0 44.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 8.4 4.7 2.4 1.9 8.7 12.1 13.1 14.9 11.0 8.9 6.7 4.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 147.1 146.1 147.2 149.0 150.7 151.7 152.4 153.2 153.8 154.3 154.7 155.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.4 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3

Wholesale Trade 25.9 25.9 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1

Retail Trade 81.2 80.5 81.3 82.2 83.7 84.8 85.2 85.6 85.7 85.9 85.9 85.8

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 40.0 39.7 39.4 40.5 40.8 40.6 40.8 41.1 41.4 41.6 41.9 42.3

Information 54.9 55.6 56.5 57.4 58.4 58.2 59.5 60.3 61.1 61.1 61.5 61.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 9.9 8.7 7.6 7.5 6.2 4.6 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.9 3.4 1.3

Financial Activities 72.3 72.4 72.8 72.9 73.0 72.9 73.4 73.5 73.4 73.3 73.2 73.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.3 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.5

Prof & Business Services 246.8 253.2 259.7 263.9 268.4 268.5 269.2 270.7 273.8 276.9 279.8 282.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.3 8.4 8.9 9.4 8.8 6.0 3.7 2.5 2.0 3.1 4.0 4.2

Educ & Health Services 131.4 130.4 130.3 131.5 133.3 134.8 136.0 136.8 137.3 137.8 138.4 138.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 3.4 4.4 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.8 1.5

Leisure & Hospitality 131.4 134.0 134.7 134.6 135.3 133.9 133.9 133.2 133.8 134.2 134.8 135.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 5.3 4.1 3.5 3.0 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 0.2 0.7 1.6

Other Services 40.4 40.5 42.2 42.2 41.8 42.0 41.7 41.1 40.4 39.8 39.8 39.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.5 5.6 7.8 6.4 3.5 3.9 -1.3 -2.6 -3.2 -5.2 -4.4 -3.3

Federal Government 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.2 0.2 -0.6 -1.4 -1.4 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4

State & Local Government 103.1 104.1 105.0 105.4 106.6 107.1 107.5 107.7 107.6 107.7 107.7 108.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1616.1 1621.0 1625.8 1630.4 1634.6 1638.5 1642.1 1645.5 1648.8 1651.9 1654.9 1657.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

Labor Force (Ths.) 967.3 976.3 978.2 987.6 998.0 999.1 1002.6 1005.4 1009.5 1012.6 1015.0 1017.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.3 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.3 2.5 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2

Unemployment Rate (%) 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4546 4678 3743 4564 4508 4626 5331 5649 5596 5417 5147 4888

Single-Family 495 484 486 528 686 925 826 747 689 661 628 596

Multifamily 4051 4194 3256 4035 3822 3701 4505 4902 4907 4756 4519 4293

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

48 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO

Quarterly Outlook for San Francisco

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 175.3 178.2 181.0 183.6 186.2 188.8 191.5 194.1 196.5 199.0 201.9 204.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4

Wages and Salaries 126.8 128.7 130.5 132.1 133.8 135.5 137.2 138.9 140.7 142.4 144.2 146.0

Nonwage Income 48.5 49.4 50.6 51.5 52.4 53.3 54.3 55.2 55.9 56.6 57.6 58.5

Real Personal Income (2009$) 138.1 139.8 141.3 142.6 143.9 145.2 146.6 147.8 148.8 150.0 151.3 152.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 105.5 107.1 108.6 110.0 111.3 112.8 114.2 115.6 116.9 118.2 119.7 121.2

Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 83.1 84.0 84.8 85.4 86.0 86.7 87.4 88.0 88.5 89.0 89.7 90.4

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 115.6 116.8 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.7 122.9 124.2 125.5 126.8 128.1 129.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1094.2 1098.8 1102.4 1105.2 1108.1 1110.6 1112.9 1115.2 1117.6 1120.2 1123.1 1126.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1

Manufacturing 35.3 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.4 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing 1058.9 1063.4 1067.0 1069.9 1072.7 1075.2 1077.5 1079.8 1082.3 1084.9 1087.8 1091.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1

Construction & Mining 44.9 45.4 45.7 46.2 46.6 46.9 47.2 47.5 47.9 48.3 48.6 48.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 155.6 155.8 156.2 156.5 156.8 157.0 157.1 157.3 157.5 157.6 157.7 157.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2

Wholesale Trade 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2

Retail Trade 85.8 85.7 85.6 85.6 85.5 85.5 85.5 85.6 85.7 85.7 85.6 85.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 42.6 42.9 43.1 43.4 43.6 43.7 43.7 43.8 43.8 43.9 43.9 43.9

Information 61.2 62.3 62.5 62.6 62.7 63.2 63.5 63.8 63.9 64.0 64.2 64.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 2.0 1.6 2.4 2.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.0

Financial Activities 73.0 72.8 72.8 72.5 72.1 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3

Prof & Business Services 284.0 285.9 287.5 288.7 289.8 290.5 291.5 292.4 293.7 295.2 296.9 298.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.0

Educ & Health Services 139.2 139.7 140.3 140.7 141.1 141.6 142.2 142.4 142.6 142.9 143.4 143.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6

Leisure & Hospitality 136.1 136.7 137.2 137.8 138.5 139.1 139.3 139.7 140.1 140.5 140.6 140.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8

Other Services 39.7 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.4 39.4 39.3 39.3 39.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

Federal Government 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.2 18.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.2 -1.0 14.0

State & Local Government 108.2 108.4 108.5 108.7 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.4 109.4 109.4 109.3 109.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1660.9 1663.7 1666.5 1669.3 1672.0 1674.5 1676.9 1679.3 1681.7 1684.0 1686.3 1688.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5

Labor Force (Ths.) 1019.7 1021.5 1023.2 1024.6 1026.0 1027.3 1028.5 1029.4 1030.1 1030.7 1031.2 1031.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2

Unemployment Rate (%) 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 4552 4463 4451 4361 4430 4529 4537 4474 4434 4439 4421 4360

Single-Family 565 545 543 552 560 556 561 566 572 579 571 572

Multifamily 3987 3918 3908 3809 3870 3973 3976 3908 3862 3861 3850 3788

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 49


METRO SUMMARY - SAN FRANCISCO

Annual Outlook for San Francisco

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 112.7 105.7 108.9 119.2 134.1 137.1 145.2 155.6 163.7 174.0 184.9 195.3 205.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -6.2 3.0 9.5 12.5 2.3 5.9 7.1 5.2 6.3 6.3 5.6 5.4

Wages and Salaries 72.0 69.3 69.7 75.0 90.3 95.6 103.5 112.3 118.8 126.0 133.0 139.8 146.9

Nonwage Income 40.8 36.4 39.2 44.2 43.8 41.6 41.8 43.3 44.9 48.0 51.9 55.5 58.9

Real Personal Income (2009$) 99.9 93.9 94.4 101.2 112.1 113.9 119.1 127.3 132.2 137.6 143.2 148.3 153.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -6.0 0.6 7.2 10.8 1.6 4.6 6.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 75.3 69.7 71.2 77.0 85.3 86.0 90.0 95.3 99.4 104.9 110.7 116.2 121.8

Real Per Capita Income (2009$) 66.7 61.9 61.8 65.3 71.3 71.5 73.8 78.0 80.3 82.9 85.7 88.2 90.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 79.1 80.0 81.2 85.2 97.7 98.8 102.2 106.4 110.3 115.0 119.8 124.9 130.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.1 1.5 4.9 14.8 1.1 3.5 4.1 3.7 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 906.5 863.5 855.0 877.3 920.8 964.5 1009.0 1052.3 1074.2 1092.4 1106.6 1116.5 1126.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -4.7 -1.0 2.6 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.3 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.9

Manufacturing 40.0 36.1 35.0 34.4 34.0 34.7 35.6 36.2 35.2 35.3 35.4 35.4 35.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -9.8 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 2.1 2.7 1.6 -2.9 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing 866.4 827.4 820.0 842.9 886.8 929.8 973.4 1016.1 1039.1 1057.1 1071.2 1081.1 1091.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -4.5 -0.9 2.8 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.4 2.3 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.0

Construction & Mining 37.9 30.1 27.7 28.4 30.3 32.7 35.8 38.1 42.6 44.7 46.3 47.7 49.0

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -20.7 -7.6 2.5 6.7 7.8 9.8 6.3 12.0 4.9 3.7 2.9 2.7

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 142.4 133.5 130.2 130.9 135.8 141.3 145.8 149.6 153.4 155.3 156.6 157.4 157.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -6.2 -2.5 0.6 3.7 4.1 3.2 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.2

Wholesale Trade 24.1 22.2 21.6 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.7 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.0 28.3

Retail Trade 79.6 74.6 73.4 73.8 75.9 78.0 80.4 83.0 85.6 85.8 85.6 85.6 85.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 38.6 36.7 35.3 34.9 36.4 38.7 39.7 40.3 41.2 42.4 43.5 43.8 43.9

Information 38.6 37.6 36.9 40.6 46.3 49.6 54.1 57.6 60.5 61.5 62.8 63.8 64.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 -2.5 -1.8 9.9 14.2 7.0 9.2 6.5 5.0 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.2

Financial Activities 76.2 69.3 67.0 66.4 67.8 69.5 71.5 72.9 73.4 73.1 72.3 71.7 71.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -9.0 -3.3 -1.0 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.0 0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3

Prof & Business Services 192.0 182.4 182.1 195.8 214.2 228.0 244.9 265.1 272.7 282.9 289.1 293.2 299.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 -5.0 -0.1 7.5 9.4 6.4 7.4 8.3 2.8 3.8 2.2 1.4 2.0

Educ & Health Services 108.2 110.7 111.4 111.3 115.7 126.6 129.8 132.5 137.0 139.0 140.9 142.5 143.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 2.4 0.6 -0.1 3.9 9.5 2.6 2.1 3.4 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality 113.9 109.8 110.5 115.0 121.5 125.7 131.2 134.6 133.8 135.8 138.1 139.9 141.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 -3.6 0.7 4.0 5.6 3.5 4.4 2.6 -0.6 1.5 1.8 1.3 0.7

Other Services 34.5 33.3 32.8 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.9 42.0 40.8 39.7 39.6 39.4 39.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 -3.5 -1.3 3.8 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.4 -3.0 -2.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6

Federal Government 18.3 17.9 19.3 18.3 17.9 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.4 17.0 16.6 16.2 16.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -2.2 7.5 -5.0 -2.1 -2.0 -0.1 0.6 -1.3 -2.4 -2.4 -2.2 4.4

State & Local Government 104.5 102.7 102.0 102.1 101.5 101.3 102.8 106.0 107.6 108.1 108.8 109.3 109.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -1.7 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 1.5 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1497.4 1516.3 1528.9 1549.0 1572.8 1593.9 1613.6 1632.3 1647.1 1659.3 1670.6 1680.5 1689.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

Labor Force (Ths.) 871.8 876.7 878.5 894.4 923.6 940.9 963.4 990.7 1007.5 1018.3 1025.3 1029.7 1031.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 0.6 0.2 1.8 3.3 1.9 2.4 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 8.5 8.7 7.9 6.6 5.4 4.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9

Total Housing Starts 2494 681 795 2585 3508 4708 3922 4360 5498 4762 4443 4471 4383

Single-Family 425 280 251 298 351 422 456 656 731 583 553 569 569

Multifamily 2068 401 544 2287 3157 4287 3466 3704 4767 4179 3890 3902 3814

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

50 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


San Jose MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Nonfarm employment in San Jose is expected to increase

by 2.1% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017. The leading sectors for

employment growth in 2016 will be the Information sector at

5.4% growth followed by the Construction & Mining sector at

4.4% growth. Declines are expected to be seen in Manufacturing

(-0.9%), the Financial Activities (-3.8%), and in the Federal

Government (-1.4%) sectors. The Federal Government and

Financial Activities sectors will see declines through 2019, while

Manufacturing is expected to see positive growth in 2017.

Real personal income is expected to grow to $131.4 billion,

an increase of 4.1%, in 2016. Between 2016 and 2017, real

personal income is expected to grow 4.9%. By 2020, real

personal income is expected to reach $154.8 billion

The San Jose area population is expected to reach 2,006,340

in 2016 which is a growth of 1.2% from the previous year.

The population will continue to grow between 1.1 and 1.2%

annually through 2020. The labor force will grow by 1.8% in

2016 but 1.0% in 2017. The unemployment rate will decrease

to 3.6% in 2016 and is expected to fall to 3.2% between 2018

and 2020.

35%

San Jose Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

1200

San Jose Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

30%

1150

25%

20%

15%

10%

1100

1050

1000

5%

950

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-5%

900

850

-10%

-15%

800

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

13%

San Jose Unemployment Rates

(percent)

250

San Jose Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

11%

200

9%

150

7%

100

5%

50

3%

1%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 51


METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE

Quarterly Outlook for San Jose

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 145.5 147.0 151.4 153.9 155.4 156.7 159.0 161.0 164.0 166.8 170.1 172.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 5.1 6.9 7.6 6.8 6.6 5.0 4.7 5.5 6.4 7.0 7.3

Wages and Salaries 111.2 113.2 117.1 118.8 120.2 121.2 123.1 124.9 127.4 129.8 132.2 134.2

Nonwage Income 34.4 33.8 34.3 35.1 35.2 35.5 35.8 36.1 36.6 37.1 37.9 38.6

Real Personal Income 119.0 120.3 124.5 125.9 126.7 127.8 129.5 130.6 132.0 133.6 135.7 137.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 3.9 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.2 4.0 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 74.3 74.8 76.7 77.8 78.3 78.7 79.6 80.4 81.6 82.8 84.2 85.3

Real Per Capita Income 60.7 61.2 63.1 63.6 63.8 64.2 64.8 65.2 65.7 66.3 67.1 67.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 109.7 110.3 112.1 112.2 113.0 113.8 115.1 116.2 117.5 118.9 120.3 121.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 3.5 4.5 3.9 3.0 3.2 2.6 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1009.8 1023.2 1040.6 1055.0 1060.1 1061.9 1066.6 1072.0 1080.2 1088.2 1095.7 1100.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 5.0 3.8 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.6

Manufacturing 159.0 161.4 163.4 164.7 163.2 162.0 161.1 161.3 162.0 163.3 163.8 164.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 2.6 0.4 -1.4 -2.1 -0.7 0.8 1.7 1.8

Nonmanufacturing 850.8 861.8 877.2 890.3 896.9 899.8 905.5 910.7 918.2 924.9 932.0 936.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.1 5.4 4.4 3.2 2.3 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.8

Construction & Mining 39.9 40.1 41.2 43.9 43.9 44.3 44.4 44.8 45.5 46.2 46.8 47.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 4.7 5.5 12.5 10.1 10.3 7.8 1.8 3.6 4.4 5.4 6.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 138.0 138.4 140.1 139.9 139.9 141.1 141.7 142.3 142.9 143.3 143.7 144.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.2

Wholesale Trade 36.7 37.2 37.4 37.7 37.7 38.0 38.1 38.3 38.5 38.6 38.8 39.0

Retail Trade 86.2 85.9 87.2 86.7 86.3 86.6 87.0 87.3 87.6 87.7 87.7 87.7

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.9 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2

Information 67.8 70.2 72.8 74.8 76.5 76.1 77.8 78.5 79.9 80.2 81.1 80.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 14.6 15.3 16.1 15.2 12.9 8.4 6.9 5.0 4.4 5.4 4.3 3.0

Financial Activities 35.4 35.6 36.3 36.7 35.7 35.3 35.1 34.7 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 4.0 5.1 4.8 0.8 -0.9 -3.3 -5.5 -3.7 -2.6 -2.2 -1.3

Prof & Business Services 205.1 211.0 215.4 222.0 223.2 223.9 224.3 225.6 229.6 234.0 237.8 240.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 8.0 8.4 10.7 8.8 6.1 4.2 1.6 2.9 4.5 6.0 6.4

Educ & Health Services 152.5 152.1 154.6 157.0 159.5 159.4 160.4 161.6 162.3 163.0 163.8 164.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.8 3.7 3.0 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality 92.1 93.3 95.0 93.9 95.4 95.5 96.9 97.9 98.3 98.6 98.9 99.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 4.6 5.1 2.7 3.6 2.4 2.0 4.2 3.0 3.2 2.1 1.4

Other Services 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.9 3.1 1.6 1.0 0.7 2.6 2.9 1.7 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6

Federal Government 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 0.1 -1.1 -1.2 -2.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.5 -0.8 -1.4 -1.7 -1.9

State & Local Government 83.3 84.7 85.6 85.5 86.3 87.5 88.0 88.6 88.6 88.8 88.9 89.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 3.5 3.3 2.8 3.6 2.7 1.5 1.0 0.8

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1959.6 1966.3 1972.7 1979.0 1985.2 1991.4 1997.4 2003.4 2009.5 2015.1 2020.8 2026.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1

Labor Force (Ths.) 1027.6 1036.7 1044.7 1060.1 1065.6 1069.3 1073.3 1076.8 1081.6 1084.9 1086.6 1088.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.7 3.1 2.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.1

Unemployment Rate (%) 5.2 4.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.3

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 8897 10477 9678 4516 8277 5200 4879 5254 5789 5920 6033 6241

Single-Family 1885 2050 2437 2143 2028 1675 1744 1853 2004 2144 2382 2506

Multifamily 7012 8426 7241 2373 6250 3526 3135 3401 3785 3777 3651 3735

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

52 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE

Quarterly Outlook for San Jose

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 175.6 178.8 181.8 184.3 187.0 189.9 192.8 195.5 198.1 200.7 203.7 206.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7

Wages and Salaries 136.4 138.8 141.0 143.0 145.1 147.4 149.6 151.8 154.0 156.2 158.5 160.7

Nonwage Income 39.3 40.0 40.7 41.3 41.9 42.5 43.3 43.8 44.1 44.5 45.2 45.9

Real Personal Income 138.4 140.2 141.9 143.2 144.5 146.0 147.5 148.9 150.1 151.2 152.7 154.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 86.4 87.7 88.9 89.9 91.0 92.1 93.3 94.3 95.3 96.2 97.4 98.5

Real Per Capita Income 68.1 68.8 69.4 69.9 70.3 70.8 71.4 71.8 72.2 72.5 73.0 73.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 122.9 124.4 125.8 127.2 128.6 130.0 131.5 133.0 134.5 135.9 137.4 138.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 1105.9 1112.5 1117.2 1121.3 1125.6 1130.1 1134.0 1137.7 1141.6 1145.7 1150.0 1154.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5

Manufacturing 164.6 165.0 165.3 165.6 165.9 166.3 166.6 166.7 166.9 167.1 167.3 167.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4

Nonmanufacturing 941.4 947.5 952.0 955.8 959.7 963.8 967.5 971.0 974.7 978.6 982.6 986.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6

Construction & Mining 48.1 48.7 49.2 49.7 50.3 50.7 51.1 51.5 52.0 52.5 52.9 53.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 144.3 144.5 144.9 145.2 145.6 146.0 146.3 146.7 147.1 147.4 147.7 147.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8

Wholesale Trade 39.2 39.4 39.7 39.9 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.7 40.9 41.0 41.2 41.3

Retail Trade 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.8 87.9 88.0 88.1 88.3 88.5 88.5 88.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0

Information 81.6 83.6 84.2 84.4 84.9 85.8 86.4 86.9 87.3 87.6 88.1 88.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 4.3 3.8 4.4 4.0 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.8

Financial Activities 34.2 34.1 34.0 33.9 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.6 33.7 33.7 33.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -0.9 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1

Prof & Business Services 242.3 244.4 245.9 247.3 248.5 249.4 250.6 251.8 253.2 254.9 256.7 258.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 4.4 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6

Educ & Health Services 165.1 165.9 166.8 167.5 168.2 169.0 169.9 170.5 171.0 171.6 172.4 172.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality 99.8 100.2 100.6 101.1 101.7 102.2 102.4 102.8 103.2 103.5 103.7 103.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1

Other Services 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Federal Government 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 10.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -0.5 14.5

State & Local Government 89.6 89.8 90.0 90.3 90.6 90.8 91.0 91.2 91.3 91.3 91.3 91.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 2032.0 2037.7 2043.7 2049.7 2055.6 2061.6 2067.5 2073.4 2079.2 2085.2 2091.1 2096.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Labor Force (Ths.) 1090.5 1092.0 1094.6 1096.9 1099.4 1102.0 1104.5 1107.1 1109.4 1111.5 1113.5 1115.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 6115 6214 6391 6409 6576 6731 6850 6910 6994 7079 7201 7201

Single-Family 2586 2646 2713 2717 2727 2663 2645 2619 2602 2574 2553 2571

Multifamily 3529 3568 3679 3692 3849 4068 4204 4290 4392 4505 4648 4629

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 53


METRO SUMMARY - SAN JOSE

Annual Outlook for San Jose

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 107.2 100.1 108.3 119.1 134.1 135.9 144.3 154.3 162.7 174.3 185.8 196.8 208.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 -6.5 8.2 10.0 12.6 1.4 6.2 7.0 5.4 7.1 6.6 5.9 5.8

Wages and Salaries 78.1 72.9 80.5 87.9 93.0 99.3 109.7 119.3 126.3 135.4 144.1 152.9 162.0

Nonwage Income 29.1 27.2 27.8 31.2 41.1 36.7 34.6 35.0 36.4 38.9 41.6 43.9 46.2

Real Personal Income 95.0 88.9 94.0 101.1 112.1 112.9 118.4 126.2 131.4 137.8 143.9 149.4 154.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 -6.4 5.7 7.7 10.9 0.7 4.8 6.7 4.1 4.9 4.4 3.8 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 59.6 54.9 58.7 63.6 70.5 70.4 73.8 77.9 81.1 85.9 90.5 94.8 99.1

Real Per Capita Income 52.8 48.8 50.9 54.0 58.9 58.5 60.5 63.7 65.5 67.9 70.1 72.0 73.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 84.1 83.7 92.7 98.9 100.6 102.9 108.8 112.8 116.9 122.3 127.9 133.7 139.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.1 -0.5 10.7 6.8 1.8 2.3 5.8 3.7 3.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 924.8 868.0 865.3 885.9 921.0 960.8 1004.6 1054.4 1076.8 1103.6 1123.6 1139.8 1155.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -6.1 -0.3 2.4 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.0 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.4 1.4

Manufacturing 166.7 153.9 151.5 155.3 155.9 155.7 159.1 163.3 161.9 164.4 165.8 166.8 167.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -7.7 -1.5 2.5 0.4 -0.1 2.2 2.7 -0.9 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4

Nonmanufacturing 758.1 714.1 713.8 730.6 765.1 805.1 845.5 891.1 914.8 939.3 957.8 972.9 988.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -5.8 0.0 2.4 4.7 5.2 5.0 5.4 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.6

Construction & Mining 44.5 34.7 32.4 31.8 34.8 37.5 39.5 43.3 45.2 47.8 50.0 51.8 53.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -6.5 -22.1 -6.2 -1.8 9.5 7.7 5.5 9.6 4.4 5.6 4.6 3.6 3.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 137.7 126.5 125.8 127.9 132.0 135.3 137.7 140.2 142.5 144.1 145.4 146.9 147.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -8.1 -0.5 1.6 3.3 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7

Wholesale Trade 39.8 35.7 35.0 34.0 35.0 36.3 36.8 37.7 38.4 39.1 40.0 40.8 41.4

Retail Trade 84.4 78.8 78.8 81.8 84.1 84.9 86.0 86.7 87.4 87.7 87.8 88.2 88.5

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.5 12.1 12.0 12.1 13.0 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.0

Information 43.6 43.8 46.5 51.3 54.2 58.7 66.4 75.0 79.1 81.8 84.8 87.0 88.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.1 0.5 6.0 10.4 5.7 8.3 13.0 13.2 5.4 3.4 3.7 2.6 2.1

Financial Activities 34.3 31.5 31.1 32.4 33.3 33.9 35.1 36.0 34.6 34.2 33.8 33.6 33.6

Pct Chg Year Ago -7.1 -8.0 -1.4 4.3 3.0 1.7 3.7 2.5 -3.8 -1.3 -1.1 -0.6 0.1

Prof & Business Services 178.3 160.6 160.9 166.7 178.2 191.1 203.8 221.1 228.4 241.1 247.8 252.6 259.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -9.9 0.3 3.6 6.8 7.3 6.6 8.5 3.3 5.6 2.8 1.9 2.6

Educ & Health Services 118.6 121.2 123.5 125.9 133.7 143.8 150.9 157.6 161.8 164.8 167.9 170.8 173.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 6.3 7.5 5.0 4.4 2.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality 78.0 74.9 74.9 77.4 82.5 87.5 91.8 95.0 97.9 99.6 101.4 102.9 104.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 -4.0 0.1 3.3 6.6 6.0 4.9 3.4 3.1 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.1

Other Services 25.4 24.5 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.4 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 -3.5 -0.7 1.2 0.7 2.7 4.0 1.5 1.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

Federal Government 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 -1.4 -0.6 -5.4 -2.8 0.8 -0.1 -1.9 -1.4 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 4.9

State & Local Government 86.9 85.6 83.7 82.6 81.6 81.8 83.8 86.2 88.5 89.4 90.4 91.2 91.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 -1.4 -2.3 -1.4 -1.1 0.3 2.4 2.9 2.6 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1798.0 1822.4 1846.1 1873.7 1902.0 1931.3 1956.4 1982.1 2006.3 2029.2 2052.7 2076.3 2099.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1

Labor Force (Ths.) 941.9 948.6 954.7 968.7 990.3 1004.0 1024.4 1059.9 1079.1 1089.4 1098.2 1108.1 1116.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 0.7 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.4 2.0 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7

Unemployment Rate (%) 6.1 10.7 10.5 9.4 8.1 6.7 5.3 4.1 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2

Total Housing Starts 2693 1359 2316 3151 4984 6253 8082 6918 5461 6151 6527 6958 7234

Single-Family 1103 706 886 1077 1525 1874 2004 2071 1936 2530 2705 2610 2565

Multifamily 1591 652 1430 2075 3459 4379 6078 4847 3524 3621 3822 4348 4668

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

54 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


Stockton MSA

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

Nonfarm employment in the Stockton MSA is expected to

increase 3.9% for 2016 and 4.2% in the first quarter of 2016.

For the first quarter of 2016, leading employment sectors

include State & Local Government, at 7.9% growth, and Trade,

Transportation & Utilities at 7.4%. Both of these sectors are

projected to have leading employment growth throughout 2016.

The Financial Activities and Manufacturing sectors are the only

sectors in the Stockton MSA experiencing negative employment

growth at -2.4% and -2.6%. The Financial Activities sector is

projected to continue to see negative rates through 2020.

Real personal income will increase by a rate of 3.5 % for 2016

equating to $23.1 Billion. Real personal income will continue to

grow at a constant rate around 3% for the upcoming years. Per

capita income will also consistently increase in the foreseeable

future, along with the average annual wage, which has a

forecasted change of 2.5% in 2016.

Population in the Stockton MSA is expected to rise to

approximately 738,200 in 2016, and will increase by 1.6% in

2016 through 2019. The labor force will increase by 1.5% in

2016, a notable change as there was an average of no growth

for the past three years. After 2016, the labor force growth will

continue to increase to 1.6% through 2019 and then dip back

down to a 1.3% growth rate in 2020. The unemployment rate is

expected to decrease from 10.6% in 2014 to 8.1% in 2016. This

decrease in the unemployment rate will continue through the

projected forecast until it reaches 7.3% in 2020.

10%

Stockton Real Personal Income

(percent change from one year ago)

250

Stockton Payroll Employment

(Thousands)

8%

240

230

6%

220

4%

210

200

2%

190

0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

180

170

-2%

160

-4%

150

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

Stockton Unemployment Rates

(percent)

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Stockton Employment Mix Relative to California, 2014

(California = 100)

6%

4%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20

0

Con. Mfg. TTU Info. Fin. Bus. EHS Leis. OTS Gov.

Center for Business and Policy Research 55


METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON

Quarterly Outlook for Stockton

January 2016 Forecast

2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 26.1 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5

Wages and Salaries 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.7

Nonwage Income 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.2

Real Personal Income* 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.5 23.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 5.1 5.8 5.4 4.7 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 36.3 36.8 37.1 37.4 37.6 37.9 38.2 38.5 38.8 39.2 39.6 40.0

Real Per Capita Income* 29.7 30.1 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.9 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.3 31.6 31.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 47.5 47.8 48.2 48.1 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.7 50.1 50.5 51.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.2 2.3 3.2 2.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 209.5 211.8 212.4 213.4 217.1 219.1 221.4 223.2 224.7 226.3 227.7 229.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.5 2.8 2.8 3.6 3.5 4.2 4.6 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.7

Manufacturing 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.4 19.1 18.8 18.6 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 6.3 5.8 5.6 2.5 -1.7 -4.5 -4.0 -2.3 0.3 1.7 1.8

Nonmanufacturing 190.8 192.7 193.0 194.1 198.0 200.3 202.9 204.6 206.1 207.4 208.8 210.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.2 2.5 2.5 3.7 4.0 5.1 5.4 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.8

Construction & Mining 9.0 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 5.9 10.0 10.2 9.0 6.4 5.8 6.6 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 52.7 54.2 53.6 54.1 55.4 56.6 57.6 57.9 58.2 58.3 58.5 58.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 4.4 2.6 2.7 5.0 4.5 7.4 6.9 5.1 3.1 1.5 1.4

Wholesale Trade 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4

Retail Trade 26.0 26.4 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 15.6 16.5 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.6

Information 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.6 -1.4 -0.6 1.5 6.9 2.6 3.5 3.5 -0.9 0.9 -0.5 -1.4

Financial Activities 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.2 -1.5 -3.0 -2.3 -2.9 -1.6 -0.8 -1.1

Prof & Business Services 18.3 18.0 18.1 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.7 2.9 1.4 2.4 1.2 5.9 7.2 10.3 8.4 6.6 5.6 4.0

Educ & Health Services 36.4 35.9 36.0 36.7 36.7 36.1 36.3 36.6 36.8 36.9 37.1 37.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.5 1.1 1.4 2.7 0.8 0.5 0.9 -0.5 0.2 2.4 2.2 1.9

Leisure & Hospitality 18.9 19.3 19.8 19.5 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.9 20.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.9 3.9 2.2 7.1 6.4 4.3 6.0 2.4 1.2 1.0 1.2

Other Services 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 6.3 3.4 -0.2 1.4 -0.6 0.9 0.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6

Federal Government 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -8.8 -3.9 -3.7 -3.3 0.5 1.0 2.7 2.3 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -1.4

State & Local Government 35.8 36.0 36.0 36.2 37.3 38.3 38.8 39.4 40.0 40.7 41.3 42.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 4.0 2.2 1.7 4.1 6.2 7.9 8.9 7.3 6.2 6.3 6.4

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 311.1 312.1 310.1 311.4 311.9 312.5 314.0 315.3 316.8 318.1 319.3 320.5

Labor Force (Ths.) -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 10.4 10.0 9.0 8.9 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5

Unemployment Rate (%) 10.4 10.0 9.0 8.9 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.5

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 1274 1158 1416 1796 1856 1838 1956 2064 2250 2540 2809 3019

Single-Family 1268 1158 1409 1772 1695 1719 1803 1899 2068 2302 2514 2672

Multifamily 6 0 7 25 161 118 153 165 182 238 295 347

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

56 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON

Quarterly Outlook for Stockton

January 2016 Forecast

2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2

Personal Income (Annual Rate, Billions $)

Total Personal Income 30.3 30.7 31.1 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.7 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.4 34.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1

Wages and Salaries 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7

Nonwage Income 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2

Real Personal Income* 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.0

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 40.3 40.6 41.1 41.5 41.7 42.1 42.6 43.0 43.2 43.6 44.1 44.5

Real Per Capita Income* 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.4 32.6 32.7 32.7 32.9 33.0 33.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 51.4 51.9 52.3 52.8 53.3 53.7 54.2 54.8 55.3 55.7 56.3 56.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 230.2 231.0 232.0 232.9 233.9 234.7 235.5 236.2 237.1 237.8 238.6 239.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5

Manufacturing 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5

Nonmanufacturing 211.2 212.0 212.9 213.8 214.7 215.5 216.2 216.9 217.8 218.5 219.3 220.3

Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5

Construction & Mining 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 6.4 5.9 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.5 59.8 59.9 60.0 60.1 60.4 60.5 60.6 60.7

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9

Wholesale Trade 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4

Retail Trade 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 19.8 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5

Information 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.7 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8

Financial Activities 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.1

Prof & Business Services 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.2

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.7

Educ & Health Services 37.4 37.6 37.8 38.0 38.2 38.4 38.7 38.8 39.0 39.1 39.4 39.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality 21.1 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.9

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2

Other Services 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2

Federal Government 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.5

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 0.0 15.1

State & Local Government 42.1 42.3 42.4 42.6 42.7 42.9 43.0 43.1 43.2 43.3 43.4 43.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 322.0 323.2 324.5 325.6 326.8 328.2 329.6 330.8 332.0 333.0 334.1 335.5

Labor Force (Ths.) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

Pct Chg Year Ago 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2

Unemployment Rate (%) 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2

Total Housing Starts (Annual Rate) 3136 3230 3323 3344 3391 3365 3405 3423 3474 3514 3535 3520

Single-Family 2764 2826 2897 2920 2961 2924 2959 2978 3027 3063 3059 3050

Multifamily 372 403 426 424 429 441 445 445 447 451 475 469

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional

comparisons of income that control for the cost of living.

Center for Business and Policy Research 57


METRO SUMMARY - STOCKTON

Annual Outlook for Stockton

January 2016 Forecast

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 21.5 21.1 21.3 22.4 23.5 24.5 25.9 27.2 28.5 30.1 31.7 33.4 35.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 -2.0 1.1 4.8 5.1 4.1 5.7 5.4 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.1

Wages and Salaries 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.9 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.7

Nonwage Income 12.2 12.2 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.3 21.3

Real Personal Income* 19.1 18.7 18.5 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.2 -1.8 -1.2 2.6 3.5 3.4 4.4 5.1 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths.) 32.0 31.1 31.0 32.1 33.5 34.6 36.1 37.5 38.7 40.1 41.6 43.1 44.6

Real Per Capita Income* 28.4 27.6 26.9 27.3 28.0 28.8 29.6 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths.) 44.2 44.7 45.5 46.2 46.8 46.5 47.2 48.3 49.5 51.2 53.0 55.0 57.1

Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 -0.8 1.6 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Non-Farm Employment 209.4 197.7 191.3 190.7 195.0 202.6 208.9 215.5 223.9 229.5 233.3 236.6 239.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -5.6 -3.3 -0.3 2.3 3.9 3.1 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.3

Manufacturing 21.2 18.9 17.6 17.9 17.8 17.9 18.6 19.2 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.3 19.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 -11.1 -6.6 1.9 -0.7 0.5 4.0 3.0 -2.6 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.6

Nonmanufacturing 188.2 178.8 173.6 172.8 177.2 184.7 190.3 196.3 205.2 210.6 214.2 217.4 220.4

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -5.0 -2.9 -0.5 2.6 4.2 3.0 3.2 4.5 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.4

Construction & Mining 11.6 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.7 8.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.8

Pct Chg Year Ago -17.7 -26.1 -9.4 -2.9 3.0 15.3 1.9 8.9 6.8 6.5 5.0 4.0 4.1

Trade, Trans, & Utilities 50.1 47.6 47.5 48.8 50.6 51.9 53.0 54.9 58.0 58.8 59.6 60.2 60.7

Pct Chg Year Ago -2.5 -5.0 -0.1 2.7 3.6 2.6 2.0 3.7 5.6 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8

Wholesale Trade 10.4 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.4 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.4

Retail Trade 25.6 23.8 23.7 24.2 24.9 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.8

Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 14.1 13.9 13.8 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 17.3 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.5

Information 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -3.3 -7.2 -4.0 -0.3 1.2 -1.2 -1.9 2.6 1.7 0.1 3.2 2.0 2.0

Financial Activities 9.4 8.9 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -5.3 -5.9 -12.7 -3.3 0.6 1.7 -1.4 0.5 -2.4 -1.1 -1.5 -0.9 -0.1

Prof & Business Services 17.5 15.9 15.4 15.2 16.6 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.9 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.3

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.2 -9.3 -3.1 -1.5 9.5 4.7 3.3 2.7 8.1 4.0 2.4 2.1 2.8

Educ & Health Services 32.0 32.2 32.3 32.5 33.0 34.9 35.9 36.4 36.6 37.4 38.1 38.9 39.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.7 5.8 2.7 1.3 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7

Leisure & Hospitality 17.4 16.7 16.1 16.3 17.0 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.7 21.9

Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -4.5 -3.3 1.4 4.0 6.9 5.2 4.9 3.5 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.1

Other Services 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1

Pct Chg Year Ago -4.1 -5.2 -6.1 -3.0 3.1 1.1 5.0 1.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Federal Government 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2

Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 4.7 5.7 -7.1 -2.5 -10.7 -9.5 -1.4 1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 5.4

State & Local Government 36.4 35.8 33.8 32.5 32.2 33.6 35.7 36.9 39.7 41.9 42.6 43.1 43.5

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -1.6 -5.6 -3.9 -1.0 4.3 6.3 3.6 7.6 5.5 1.7 1.2 0.7

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths.) 672.6 679.3 688.5 696.1 701.9 706.8 716.7 726.6 738.2 750.0 762.0 774.2 785.6

Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths.) 304.5 309.9 311.2 310.9 311.0 311.0 311.1 311.5 316.0 321.3 326.3 331.4 335.8

Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.8 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.3

Unemployment Rate (%) 10.5 14.9 16.5 16.2 14.4 12.4 10.6 8.7 8.1 7.5 7.2 7.3 7.3

Total Housing Starts 1021 826 853 957 1057 1219 1297 1727 2203 3048 3356 3454 3524

Single-Family 898 826 846 825 1044 1096 1283 1649 2018 2694 2926 3007 3047

Multifamily 123 0 7 132 14 123 13 78 185 354 430 447 477

* Real personal income and real per capita income are adjusted for inflation and regional purchasing power parities. This facilitates interregional comparisons of income

that control for the cost of living.

58 California & Metro Forecast January 2016


CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND POLICY RESEARCH

University of the Pacific

A national doctoral university, University of the Pacific is recognized for an education combining exceptional professional

preparation in a student-centered tradition of close interactions between students and professors. With a core liberal

arts college and eight professional schools, more than any university enrolling fewer than 10,000 students, Pacific offers

professional opportunities associated with far larger institutions in the environment of a small learning community. Pacific

is California’s first chartered institution of higher learning, having received its articles of incorporation from the California

Supreme Court on July 10, 1851. The University enrolls more than 5,600 students on three campuses situated in the

Northern California cities of San Francisco, Stockton and Sacramento.

President Pamela A. Eibeck

www.pacific.edu

Eberhardt School of Business

The Eberhardt School of Business offers a Masters in Business Administration (MBA), Master of Accounting (MAcc),

Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Bachelor of Science in Accounting, and Minors in Management, Business

Administration, and Information Systems to nearly 700 students. With an emphasis on interactive classes and studentfaculty

engagement, the program is committed to developing successful future business leaders through a learning

process that is personal, relevant, and professional. In addition to developing well-rounded and highly skilled graduates,

the Eberhardt School of Business has demonstrated its commitment to community service and regional economic

development through a variety of outreach programs and activities including the Center for Business and Policy Research,

Career Management Center, Center for Entrepreneurship, Institute for Family Business, and Westgate Center for

Management Development.

Dean Lewis R. Gale

www.business.pacific.edu

Center for Business and Policy Research

The Center for Business and Policy Research, founded in 2004 and housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, produces

quarterly economic forecasts of California and 8 metropolitan areas from Sacramento to Fresno to the San Francisco Bay

Area. In addition to its forecasting program, the Center conducts policy and planning studies on topics such as water,

transportation, housing, and economic development for public and private clients throughout Northern California.

Jeffrey A. Michael, Ph.D.

Director, Center for Business and Policy Research

Ph.D., North Carolina State University; M.S.,

University of Maine; B.A., Hamilton College (NY)

Dr. Jeffrey Michael is Director of the Center for Business and Policy Research and

Associate Professor in the Eberhardt School of Business at the University of the

Pacific.

Jeff’s areas of expertise include regional economic forecasting and environmental

economics including work on the economic impacts of the Endangered Species Act,

climate change, and regulation on land use, property values and employment growth.

His research has received numerous grants, been published in scholarly journals and

received local and national press coverage including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times Magazine, San Francisco

Chronicle, Washington Post, NPR, and PBS.

Prior to joining Pacific in 2008, Jeff was faculty at Towson University in Maryland where he served as Director of the

Center for Applied Business and Economic Research, Associate Dean, and faculty. Jeff received his Ph.D. from North

Carolina State University, M.S. from the University of Maine, and B.A. from Hamilton College (NY).

UNIVERSITY OF THE PACIFIC EBERHARDT SCHOOL OF BUSINESS


University of the Pacific | Eberhardt School of Business

Sacramento Office:

3200 5th Avenue

Sacramento, CA 95817

Stockton Office:

3601 Pacific Avenue

Stockton, CA 95211

Go.Pacific.edu/CBPR

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