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ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

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3.4. Percent Gap Between

3.4. Percent Gap Between Actual and Projected (Oct-2010): Cumulative Real GDP Growth between 2010 and 2015 ..........123 3.i. Actual and Forecasted Working-Age Population by Region, 1950-2070 .................................................126 3.ii. Actual and Forecasted Dependency Ratios by Region, 1950-2070 ..126 3.iii. Real GDP Growth and Demographic Trends, 1989-2013 .........127 3.5. Current Account Balance as a Share of GDP, 2015 ..............129 3.6. Real GDP, 2008-2015 ........................................131 3.7. Percent Gap Between Actual and Projected (Oct-2010): Cumulative Real GDP Growth between 2010 and 2015 ..........132 3.8. Euro Area Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads Over Germany, 2007-2015 ..................................................132 3.iv. U.S., European, and Chinese Volatility Indices ..................136 3.v. U.S., European, and Chinese Stock Markets, 2015 ...............137 3.9. Measures of Industrial Activity in China, 2011-2015 .............141 3.10. China’s Foreign Exchange Rate and Trading Band, 2011-2015 .....141 3.vi. Change in Commodity Futures Prices, June to December 2015 ....142 3.vii. World Industrial Production and Commodity Prices, 2006-2015 ..143 3.11. Brazil’s Current Account Balance ..............................145 3.12. U.S. Trade in Goods, 1992-2015 ...............................146 3.13. U.S. Trade in Services, 1992-2015 ..............................146 3.14. Composition of U.S. Exports, 2015 ............................147 3.15. Composition of U.S. Imports, 2015 ............................147 3.16. China’s Foreign Exchange Rate and Trading Band, 2011-2015 .....149 3.17. China’s Foreign Exchange Rate and Trading Band, 2011-2015 .....149 3.18. China’s Foreign Exchange Rate and Trading Band, 2011-2015 .....150 4.1. Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills SES Gaps are Mostly Established by Kindergarten ..................................157 4.2. Official Poverty Rate for Households with Children by Householder Characteristic, 2014 ..............................158 4.3. Likelihood of Scoring Very Low on Early Health Measures .......160 4.4. Household Food Insecurity Rates, 2014 ........................161 4.5. Disparities in Underlying Factors Behind Outcome Gaps .........162 4.6. Likelihood of Scoring Very Low on Measures of Cognition at Age 5, 2006 .................................................163 4.7. Achievement Gap is Largely Set by Age 5 .......................164 4.8. Likelihood of Scoring Very Low on Behavioral Indexes at Age 5, 2006 .................................................165 4.9. Mother’s Time Spent on Child Care by Educational Attainment, 1965—2008 .................................................166 4.10. High-Income Parents Spend More Time on Educational Activities with their Children, 2014 .....................................167 4.11. Preschool Enrollment by Mother’s Education, 2014 ..............168 4.12. Annual Cost of Juvenile Incarceration vs. Other Youth Investments ................................................175 4.13. Low Birth Weight by Maternal Socioeconomic Status, 1989—2011 .................................................177 4.14. Increase in Income and Payroll Taxes Paid Through Age 28 from an Additional Year of Medicaid Eligibility in Childhood, 1996—2012 .................................................183 Contents | 17

4.15. Effects of WIC Participation on Birth Outcomes, 1994—2004 .....185 4.16. Impact of Food Stamp Exposure on Metabolic Syndrome by Age of First Exposure ........................................187 4.17. Long-Term Impacts of Exposure to Food Stamps as a Child. . . . . . . 187 4.18. Most Early Childhood Programs Have Positive Cognitive and Achievement Impacts ........................................198 4.19. Net Benefit Per Child of Perry Preschool Rises Over the Lifecycle ..199 4.20. Increase in Probability of Survival Past Age 60-80 Among Mothers’ Pension Recipients, 1965—2012 ......................204 4.21. Average Annual Earnings in Adulthood Among Children Younger than 13 When Their Family Participated in MTO, 2008—2012 ....205 5.1. Labor Productivity Growth, 1955-2010 .........................208 5.2. Quantity and Volume of Venture Capital Deals, 1995-2015 .......214 5.3. Firm Entry and Exit Rates in the United States, 1977-2013 ........215 5.i. Share of Workers with a State Occupational License, 1950-2008 ...216 5.4. U.S. Job Creation and Destruction Rates, 1980-2012 .............219 5.5. Federal and Nonfederal Research and Development as a Share of GDP, 1953-2015 .............................................224 5.6. Real Private Research & Development (R&D) Investment Growth, 2001-2015 ..................................................224 5.7. Federal Research and Development (R&D) Investment, 1980-2015 ..................................................226 5.8. Share of Research and Development (R&D) by Funding Source, 2011 .......................................................226 5.9. Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development (R&D), 2013 ................................................227 5.10. Percent of Patent Applications by First Time U.S. Patenters, 1976-2003 ..................................................228 5.ii. Trends in Patent Litigation, 1971-2014 .........................229 5.11. Estimated Worldwide Annual Supply of Industrial Robots, 2004-2014 ..................................................233 5.12. Estimated Annual Shipments of Industrial Robots by Main Industries, 2010-2012 ........................................234 5.13. Robot Density: Automotive vs. Non-Automotive, 2012 ...........235 5.14. Patents with Robot Class, 2000-2014 ...........................235 5.15. Probability of Automation by an Occupation’s Median Hourly Wage ......................................................239 5.16. Share of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) in Value Added, 2011 ..........................................241 5.iii. New York City Taxi Medallion Transactions, 2010-2015 ..........243 5.iv. Chicago Taxi Medallion Transactions, 2011-2015 ................244 5.17 Household Income and Home Internet Use, 2014 ...............246 6.1. Composition of Public Spending on Water and Transportation Infrastructure as a Share of GDP, 1956-2014 ...................255 6.2. Public Gross Fixed Investment as a Share of GDP for G-7 Countries, 1981-2015 ........................................256 6.3 Average Age of Public Structures, 1956-2014 ....................257 6.4 Quality of U.S. Infrastructure, 2006-2015 .......................257 6.5. Government Bond Yields, 1965-2015 ..........................275 18 | Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers

  • Page 1 and 2: ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT To
  • Page 4: C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REPORT OF
  • Page 8 and 9: economic report of the president To
  • Page 10 and 11: when a hardworking American loses h
  • Page 12: the annual report of the council of
  • Page 16 and 17: C O N T E N T S CHAPTER 1 INCLUSIVE
  • Page 18 and 19: CHAPTER 5 TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION
  • Page 20 and 21: APPENDIXES A. Report to the Preside
  • Page 24 and 25: 6.6. Relationship between Output Gr
  • Page 26 and 27: C H A P T E R 1 INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN
  • Page 28 and 29: To promote inclusive growth, both c
  • Page 30 and 31: Percent 20 15 Figure 1-1 Share of I
  • Page 32 and 33: Table 1-1 Increase in Income Share
  • Page 34 and 35: Figure 1-3 Distribution of Househol
  • Page 36 and 37: narrows the pool of human capital t
  • Page 38 and 39: over the past several decades has b
  • Page 40 and 41: Figure 1-6a The "Great Gatsby Curve
  • Page 42 and 43: Figure 1-7 Change in Employment by
  • Page 44 and 45: and sellers—consumer and producer
  • Page 46 and 47: Percent 15 10 Figure 1-9 Corporate
  • Page 48 and 49: Percent 30 Figure 1-11 Share of Wor
  • Page 50 and 51: Figure 1-12 Real Construction Costs
  • Page 52 and 53: promoting equality of opportunity;
  • Page 54 and 55: the division of rents, they can red
  • Page 56 and 57: C H A P T E R 2 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
  • Page 58 and 59: cold weather.1 The economy rebounde
  • Page 60 and 61: Box 2-1: Impact of Oil Price Declin
  • Page 62 and 63: Roughly speaking, the decline in th
  • Page 64 and 65: Percent of GDP 10 Figure 2-3 Federa
  • Page 66 and 67: Figure 2-5 Government Purchases as
  • Page 68 and 69: 13 percent of GDP. Until 1990, Stat
  • Page 70 and 71: of new purchases.2 The increase in
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    Figure 2-8 Actual and Consensus For

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    Figure 2-10 Rates of Part-Time Work

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    less than a tenth of the overall de

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    Business fixed investment grew 3.1

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    Percent 10 Figure 2-14 Personal Sav

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    BEA revises the official statistics

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    Index* 100 Figure 2-16 Real Income

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    Box 2-5: Are Official Estimates of

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    of consumer surplus, which should,

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    Figure 2-19 National House Price In

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    Box 2-6: Constraints on Housing Sup

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    and also was estimated in recent re

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    market. Nevertheless, the construct

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    Figure 2-23 Net Investment as a Sha

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    Percent 80 Figure 2-25 Total Payout

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    Figure 2-28 Foreign Real GDP and U.

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    Figure 2-30 Sources of Productivity

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    Figure 2-32 Nominal Wage Growth Ove

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    Figure 2-35 Long-Term Inflation Exp

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    Percent 18 Figure 2-36 Nominal 10-Y

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    Table 2-1 Selected Interest Rates,

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    are close to those projected by the

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    International Economics (Petri and

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    History Forecast 1953:Q2 to 2015:Q3

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    inflation up to 2007 and then expec

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    Upside and Downside Forecast Risks.

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    earlier forecasts. Figure 3-1 shows

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    Real GDP/WAP Growth 2011-2014 Figur

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    economists would expect capital dee

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    Figure 3-i Actual and Forecasted Wo

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    affected the demographic trajectory

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    over the first three quarters of 20

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    Percentage Points 35 30 Figure 3-7

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    the President for a discussion of t

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    Box 3-2: Market Volatility in the S

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    potential for rapid spillovers betw

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    absorb unexpectedly high losses. In

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    Box 3-3: Commodity Prices and Infla

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    In November 2015, the IMF voted to

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    Billions of U.S. Dollars 250 200 15

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    U.S. exports are 12.5 percent of th

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    Box 3-4: The Importance of the Tran

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    The challenging environment for U.S

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    child’s environment. Despite the

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    and Rossin-Slater 2015).5 These adv

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    Figure 4-2 Official Poverty Rate fo

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    Figure 4-3 Likelihood of Scoring Ve

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    Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

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    Figure 4-7 Achievement Gap is Large

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    Hours per Week 24 22 20 Figure 4-9

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    Percent 65 Figure 4-11 Preschool En

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    Box 4-1: Gender Differences in Earl

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    Card and Rothstein 2007; Dickerson

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    depend on how parents choose to inv

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    y many factors, which makes it diff

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    Box 4-3: Federal Early Childhood Pr

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    program served over 45 million Amer

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    Reauthorization Act of 2015, signed

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    document that desegregation of hosp

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    to alleviate hunger by supplementin

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    adulthood (Hoynes, Schanzenbach, an

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    of preschoolers support their child

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    program and up to 15 years after co

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    a longer period than is true of mos

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    to be higher today than in the past

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    Figure 4-18 Most Early Childhood Pr

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    the preschool programs in Georgia a

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    test scores by 6 to 9 percent of a

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    Figure 4-20 Increase in Probability

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    increased earnings by 31 percent (F

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    Figure 5-1 Labor Productivity Growt

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    Competition and Dynamism Play a Cri

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    adopts pre-existing technology or k

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    Figure 5-2 Quantity and Volume of V

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    Box 5-2: Occupational Licensing One

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    in consumer welfare as they erode t

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    Finally, some workers may acquire s

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    Box 5-3: Major Research Initiatives

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    Figure 5-5 Federal and Nonfederal R

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    Figure 5-7 Federal Research and Dev

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    Figure 5-10 Percent of Patent Appli

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    percent of all cases in 2009 to ove

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    (Bloom, Sadun, and Van Reenen 2012)

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    Figure 5-12 Estimated Annual Shipme

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    was relatively flat through the 200

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    In contrast, recent papers by Autor

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    services, such as 4G LTE. At the sa

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    Box 5-5: The On-Demand Economy “O

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    vision of services that may not hav

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    Figure 5-17 Household Income and Ho

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    about half since ConnectED was laun

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    C H A P T E R 6 THE ECONOMIC BENEFI

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    enefits to a wide set of consumers

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    Figure 6-1 Composition of Public Sp

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    Age, Years 29 27 Figure 6-3 Average

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    Type CAN FRA DEU ITA JPN GBR USA 20

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    Box 6-1: Clean Energy and Transport

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    Industry Government Investment Dire

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    infrastructure investment is crucia

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    Box 6-2: Elasticity of Output to Pu

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    and output ignore potential inter-t

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    Thus, ideas are exchanged, workers

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    kilometers of road) in 1983 resulte

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    Prospects for Increased Infrastruct

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    Figure 6-6 Relationship between Out

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    there is a clear demand for an infr

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    user fees or shadow tolls.11 Throug

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    to transportation facilities caused

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    Tax-Exempt Bonds Transportation inf

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    Recent Legislation In December 2015

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    enefit freight movements. The Act a

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    C H A P T E R 7 THE 70 TH ANNIVERSA

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    and composition of the labor force,

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    it, “[t]he CEA and its chairman h

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    jected reductions in the deficit. I

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    example, the Environmental Protecti

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    Keyserling and the Council particip

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    Countercyclical Policy in Other Adm

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    In designing the Recovery Act, one

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    incorporating risk and discounting

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    and Freddie had lots of friends in

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    (USEC). USEC was responsible for pr

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    can be reported to him as the perce

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    By contrast, Keyserling had activel

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    goals of the government in their ar

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    Gather, Analyze, and Interpret Info

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    the unemployment insurance system w

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    an informational basis for appropri

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    had experience working in governmen

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    emained. I joined forces with Budge

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    Of course, relying on short-term ac

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    Carson, Ann. 2015. “Prisoners in

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    Kleiner, Morris M. and Alan B. Krue

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    Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

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    Kocin, Paul J. and Louis Uccellini.

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    Fajgelbaum, Pablo and Amit Khandelw

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    World Bank. 2016. “Global Economi

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    Belfield, Clive R., Milagros Nores,

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    Campbell, Jennifer A., Rebekah J. W

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    Council of Economic Advisers. 2014.

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    Eissa, Nada and Jeffrey B. Liebman.

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    Hastings, Justine S. and Ebonya Was

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    Kalil, Ariel, Rebecca Ryan, and Mic

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    Maxfield, Michelle. 2013. “The Ef

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    Olds, David, John Eckenrode, Charle

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    Solon, Gary. 1992. “Intergenerati

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    Wherry, Laura R., Sarah Miller, Rob

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    Bloom, Nicholas, Mark Schankerman,

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    Graham, Stuart JH, Cheryl Grim, Tar

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    Melitz, Marc J. 2003. “The Impact

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    ______. 2015. “Patent Assertions:

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    Congressional Budget Office. 2009.

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    Peshkin, David G., Todd E. Hoerner,

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    ______. 2001. Designing U.S. Econom

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    Krueger, Alan B. 2000. “Honest Br

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    Weidenbaum, Murray L. 1983. “An E

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    letter of transmittal Council of Ec

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    Council Members and Their Dates of

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    The Members of the Council Sandra E

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    In May, the Council issued a report

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    Nirupama S. Rao . . . . . . . . . .

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    Jessica Schumer resigned from her p

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    C O N T E N T S GDP, INCOME, PRICES

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    General Notes Detail in these table

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    Table B-1. Percent changes in real

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    Table B-2. Gross domestic product,

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    Table B-4. Growth rates in real gro

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    Year or quarter Total Table B-6. Co

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    Table B-8. New private housing unit

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    Table B-10. Changes in consumer pri

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    Table B-11. Civilian labor force, 1

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    Year or month Table B-13. Unemploym

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    Table B-14. Employees on nonagricul

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    Year or quarter Table B-16. Product

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    Table B-18. Federal receipts, outla

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    Table B-20. Federal receipts, outla

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    Table B-22. State and local governm

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    End of month Table B-24. Estimated

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    Table B-25. Bond yields and interes

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT
Economic Report of the President 1994 - The American Presidency ...
ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT