Corridor Calculus

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Acknowledgment I would like to thank Director VIF, Gen NC Vij, for the enormous patience he showed over repeated violation of deadlines, for the gentle pressure he exerted so that I stayed on the job and for the confidence he reposed in my assurances that he would be satisfied with the end product; Thanks are also due to both Gen Vij and Lt Gen Sawhney for their suggestions on the structure of the monograph. I got valuable assistance from a young intern attached with me. Navroz Singh dug out the references and meticulously checked them to ensure there were no error. Finally, a word of thanks to my friend, Bhavna Seth Ranjan, who edited the monograph. Sushant Sareen Senior Fellow, VIF
FOREWORD 1. The monograph on the China-Pakistan Economic <strong>Corridor</strong> (CPEC) is one of four studies Vivekananda International Foundation has undertaken to examine the ambitious 'One Road, One Belt' initiative of China both by road and sea. 2. The CPEC has attracted a lot of attention and interest, both in the region and beyond. The Pakistanis are calling it not just a 'game-changer' but also a 'destiny changer'. In fact, Pakistan has practically wagered its future on the CPEC. The enthusiasm for CPEC in Pakistan and the hype surrounding it has led many in India to look at the CPEC in the context of the rhetoric and not the reality of the project. The monograph on CPEC by VIF Senior Fellow Sushant Sareen is an attempt to deconstruct this rhetoric and analyse the reality of the project. 3. In a meticulously researched study, the author has brought out how the idea of Gwadar becoming the gateway to Central Asia and China is more than a quarter century old. Starting from Pakistan dreaming of capturing the Central Asian trade and transit in the early 1990s, to Pakistan dreaming that it will capture the bulk of Chinese West-bound (to middle-east, Africa and Europe) trade and transit traffic, there has been quite a transformation in focus of Pakistan. With Central Asia, Pakistan hopes to become patron and puppeteer; with China, Pakistan is reconciled to playing the client. 4. While there is little doubt that the CPEC investments – close to $50 billion over a fifteen year period, which makes it roughly $ 4 billion a year – will provide a boost to the anaemic Pakistan economy, there are serious questions about whether it will indeed prove to be the game-changer it is being made out to be. Strategically, the CPEC is certainly indicative of the close relationship between China and Pakistan. In fact, more than the economics of the CPEC, it is the Chinese strategic calculus behind it that is of greater interest. As the study by Sushant shows, the strategic importance of CPEC is as much about China finding an alternative to get over its 'Malacca
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Corridor Calculus

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