The Intelligence Review | vol. 1 | iss. 1 |

the ongoing violence and instability throughout the country, and the United Nations’ (UN)
inability to cope with the conflict due to ill-equipped peacekeepers (Anon. 2016d), have many
worried about a potential full-scale civil war breaking out in Burundi.
Definitions
When assessing the possibility of a full-scale civil war, it is important to define some relevant
terms. Although there is no consensus by scholars in defining the term ‘civil war,’ the Concise
Oxford Dictionary of Politics defines it as “a military conflict centered on territory within a state,
involving combatants from that state, over the political right to control that territory” (McLean
and Alistair 2009). Civil wars usually involve fighting between government forces and between
civilians. Some studies, such as the Correlates of War studies, have tried to quantify a civil war
by the number of deaths or casualties that have occurred from directly related violence. The
study determined that the number of deaths due to related violence would need to be greater
than 1,000 (McLean and Alistair 2009). The next term that needs to be defined is ‘full-scale’. I
have defined a full-scale civil war as one in which both government forces and rebel groups
are equally organized and devoted to fighting one another. Moreover, during the fighting,
peacetime activities are curtailed or significantly reduced to give priority to military objectives.
Discussion
Since the failed coup against Nkurunziza’s government, the president has authorized security
forces to use lethal force against protestors and rebels, in an attempt to retain power. As a
result, hundreds have been killed. Along with giving security forces the ability to exercise lethal
force, President Nkurunziza has also shut down four of the most popular radio stations in
Burundi, making first-hand information difficult to obtain. This action was clearly taken to
deter news of protests and acts of rebellion from spreading in the country (Anon. 2015b).
Arbitrary arrests and disappearances have also been a regular occurrence since the crisis
erupted. There are reports of torture and ill-treatment of individuals under arrest by the
authorities. A recent report by the UN Human Rights Chief, Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, showed
that there were over 345 cases of torture and ill-treatment in Burundi. The Burundi Intelligence
Service, Service National de Renseignements, was said to have 67 prisoners in their facility when
the UN Human Rights team visited it. The prisoners were reportedly there for offenses such
as espionage, undermining state security, and illegal possession of arms. Of those, 30 showed
signs of physical torture. Police personnel and the army have also reportedly been using torture
methods, but on a smaller scale (Anon. 2016g).
Along with violence on the citizens of Burundi, officials from the ruling party, the National
Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD),
and military officials have been targeted by rebel groups. On March 22, Lieutenant Colonel
Darius Ikurakure was killed inside of the Defense Ministry in the state capital, Bujumbura. He
was said to be close to the president and has also been accused of arbitrary arrests and killings
by opponents of the ruling party. The gunman was reported to have fled the scene and his
whereabouts remain unknown (Nichols 2016). After a few days, a rebel group known as FOREBU
(Burundian Republican Forces), which was formed with the goal of ousting the president,
claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that “this is just the beginning” (Anon. 2016).
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