DT e-Paper, Saturday, 12 November, 2016
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
10<br />
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER <strong>12</strong>, <strong>2016</strong><br />
<strong>DT</strong><br />
World<br />
ANALYSIS<br />
Nuclear weapons: How foreign hotspots<br />
could test Trump’s finger on the trigger<br />
• Tribune International Desk<br />
On Donald Trump’s first day in office<br />
he will be handed the “nuclear<br />
biscuit” – a small card with the<br />
codes he would need to talk to the<br />
Pentagon war room to verify his<br />
identity in the event of a national<br />
security crisis.<br />
Some presidents have chosen to<br />
keep the “biscuit” on them, though<br />
that is not foolproof. Jimmy Carter<br />
left his in his clothes when he sent<br />
them to the dry-cleaners. Bill Clinton<br />
had it in his wallet with his credit<br />
cards, but then lost the wallet.<br />
Others have chosen to give the<br />
card to an aide to keep in a briefcase,<br />
known as the “nuclear football”,<br />
together with a manual containing<br />
US war plans for different<br />
contingencies and one on “continuity<br />
of government”, where to go<br />
to ensure executive authority survives<br />
a first nuclear strike.<br />
The “biscuit” and “football” are<br />
the embodiment of the awesome,<br />
civilisation-ending power that will<br />
be put in Trump’s hands on 20 January.<br />
They only become relevant<br />
in very rare moments of extreme<br />
crisis, but a US president’s ability<br />
to manage crises around the world<br />
will help determine whether they<br />
become extreme.<br />
There is one such situation already<br />
in the in-tray Trump will<br />
find on his desk, on the Korean<br />
peninsula, where the North Korean<br />
regime is rapidly developing a<br />
long-range nuclear missile. Another<br />
could blow up at any time with<br />
Russia, whose warplanes are flying<br />
increasingly close to Nato planes<br />
and ships in a high-stakes game of<br />
chicken. And Trump could trigger a<br />
third crisis, with Iran, if he follows<br />
through with his threat to tear up<br />
last year’s agreement curbing its<br />
nuclear programme in return for<br />
sanctions relief.<br />
The temperament question<br />
During the campaign, 10 former US<br />
nuclear launch officers, who once<br />
manned missile silos and held the<br />
keys necessary to execute a launch<br />
order, signed a letter saying Trump<br />
should not have his “finger on the<br />
button” because of his temperament.<br />
One of those former officers,<br />
Bruce Blair, said that if US early<br />
warning radar showed the country<br />
was under attack by nuclear<br />
missiles, there would be time for a<br />
president to receive a briefing that<br />
could be as short as 30 seconds and<br />
the commander-in-chief would<br />
then have between three and <strong>12</strong><br />
minutes to make up his mind. He<br />
The world has five official “nuclear weapons states” – the United States,<br />
Russia, China, Britain and France, signatories of the Non-Proliferation<br />
Treaty. India, Pakistan and North Korea have also conducted nuclear<br />
tests, while Israel is widely believed to have the bomb<br />
NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES<br />
Number of warheads<br />
UNITED STATES*<br />
500<br />
RUSSIA**<br />
Sources: Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Threat Initiative<br />
would have to take into account<br />
that the early warning system had<br />
been wrong before and could be<br />
vulnerable to ever more sophisticated<br />
hacking.<br />
North Korea<br />
Kim Jong-un has accelerated testing<br />
of nuclear weapons and missiles,<br />
and most analysts believe he<br />
will reach the capability of making<br />
a miniaturised warhead that could<br />
be put on an intercontinental ballistic<br />
missile capable of reaching<br />
the US west coast within Trump’s<br />
first term as president.<br />
Daryl Kimball, the executive<br />
director of the Arms Control Association,<br />
said that Pyongyang could<br />
2,200<br />
2,500<br />
Strategic, operationally deployed<br />
Tactical battlefield, operationally deployed (200 in Europe)<br />
CHINA<br />
400<br />
Reserve (active and inactive)<br />
Strategic, 250; tactical, 150<br />
seize the opportunity of presidential<br />
transition to test Trump’s mettle.<br />
“I am worried about the people<br />
Trump is going to put in charge on<br />
that file,” Kimball said. “He is facing<br />
a very empty bench. Many of<br />
the Republican foreign policy establishment<br />
are ‘never-Trumpers’,<br />
and the North Korea problem is not<br />
going to wait.”<br />
Trump has offered to talk to<br />
Kim, offering the possibility of<br />
breaking through the diplomatic<br />
impasse that has cut off almost all<br />
engagement with the regime. But a<br />
unilateral move could unnerve US<br />
allies in the region, already anxious<br />
about Trump’s remarks during the<br />
campaign suggesting they do not<br />
4,138<br />
FRANCE 300 Four submarines, 60 bombers,<br />
plus carrier-based aircraft<br />
UK 200 Four submarines, each armed<br />
with up to 16 Trident missiles<br />
OTHER DECLARED NUCLEAR NATIONS Trident C-4<br />
INDIA<br />
PAKISTAN<br />
N KOREA<br />
UNDECLARED<br />
ISRAEL<br />
100<br />
30-50<br />
8 est.<br />
100-200<br />
* Excludes 4,200 retired<br />
warheads of which 350<br />
are dismantled each year<br />
** Excludes 8,150 reserve<br />
or awaiting dismantlement<br />
SS-N-18 missile<br />
5,200<br />
© GRAPHIC NEWS<br />
contribute enough to deserve the<br />
shelter of the US nuclear umbrella.<br />
Iran<br />
Trump has threatened to tear up<br />
the nuclear deal six major powers<br />
signed with Iran last year, in which<br />
Iran scaled down its nuclear programme<br />
in return for relief from international<br />
sanctions. He and other<br />
Republicans have argued that the<br />
US would get more concessions if<br />
they reapplied sanctions.<br />
“That would be a catastrophic<br />
decision,” Acton said. “The other<br />
parties to this deal would still<br />
consider themselves bound by it,<br />
whether or not the US did. If we<br />
withdrew, the Iranians would demand<br />
redress, and the other parties<br />
would be sympathetic. If you<br />
want to put pressure on Iran you<br />
need multilateral sanctions. Behaving<br />
unilaterally is very unlikely<br />
to work.”<br />
Even before taking office,<br />
Trump would be under heavy pressure<br />
from the other parties to the<br />
deal – the UK, France, Germany,<br />
Russia and China – who have started<br />
investing and trading with Iran,<br />
not to deliver on his threat.<br />
Doing so could isolate the US<br />
and potentially trigger a nuclear<br />
arms race in the Gulf.<br />
Russia<br />
Trump has claimed he could improve<br />
relations with Russia, and<br />
in particular with Vladimir Putin<br />
personally, that would defuse the<br />
high tensions over Ukraine and<br />
Syria. Such deals could well be at<br />
the expense of the people of those<br />
countries, but could conceivably<br />
lessen the chances of a complete<br />
end to arms control and the return<br />
to an expensive and dangerous nuclear<br />
arms race. Hans Kristensen, a<br />
nuclear expert at the Federation of<br />
American Scientists (FAS), points<br />
out that the deepest cuts in nuclear<br />
arsenals have been achieved by Republican<br />
administrations.<br />
“Republicans love nuclear<br />
weapons reductions, as long as<br />
they’re not proposed by a Democratic<br />
president,” Kristensen wrote<br />
on an FAS blog.<br />
“That is the lesson from decades<br />
of US nuclear weapons and arms<br />
control management. If that trend<br />
continues, then we can expect the<br />
new Donald Trump administration<br />
to reduce the US nuclear weapons<br />
arsenal more than the Obama administration<br />
did.”<br />
The current arms treaty limiting<br />
the strategic arsenals of both countries,<br />
New Start, expires in 2021.<br />
A decision will have to be made<br />
whether to replace it or let arms<br />
control wither. Both Putin and<br />
Trump could save tens of billions of<br />
dollars by cutting arsenals. As part<br />
of any deal, however, Putin would<br />
ask for the scrapping of the US missile<br />
defence system currently being<br />
erected in eastern Europe. Any<br />
concessions on the US trillion-dollar<br />
nuclear weapon modernisation<br />
programme, which Trump endorses<br />
in his transition website, would<br />
bring him in direct conflict with the<br />
Republican establishment.<br />
“I could imagine Trump personally<br />
being more flexible,” Acton<br />
said. “But it would set up a huge<br />
fight with Congress. Congress loves<br />
missile defence.” •