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10<br />

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER <strong>12</strong>, <strong>2016</strong><br />

<strong>DT</strong><br />

World<br />

ANALYSIS<br />

Nuclear weapons: How foreign hotspots<br />

could test Trump’s finger on the trigger<br />

• Tribune International Desk<br />

On Donald Trump’s first day in office<br />

he will be handed the “nuclear<br />

biscuit” – a small card with the<br />

codes he would need to talk to the<br />

Pentagon war room to verify his<br />

identity in the event of a national<br />

security crisis.<br />

Some presidents have chosen to<br />

keep the “biscuit” on them, though<br />

that is not foolproof. Jimmy Carter<br />

left his in his clothes when he sent<br />

them to the dry-cleaners. Bill Clinton<br />

had it in his wallet with his credit<br />

cards, but then lost the wallet.<br />

Others have chosen to give the<br />

card to an aide to keep in a briefcase,<br />

known as the “nuclear football”,<br />

together with a manual containing<br />

US war plans for different<br />

contingencies and one on “continuity<br />

of government”, where to go<br />

to ensure executive authority survives<br />

a first nuclear strike.<br />

The “biscuit” and “football” are<br />

the embodiment of the awesome,<br />

civilisation-ending power that will<br />

be put in Trump’s hands on 20 January.<br />

They only become relevant<br />

in very rare moments of extreme<br />

crisis, but a US president’s ability<br />

to manage crises around the world<br />

will help determine whether they<br />

become extreme.<br />

There is one such situation already<br />

in the in-tray Trump will<br />

find on his desk, on the Korean<br />

peninsula, where the North Korean<br />

regime is rapidly developing a<br />

long-range nuclear missile. Another<br />

could blow up at any time with<br />

Russia, whose warplanes are flying<br />

increasingly close to Nato planes<br />

and ships in a high-stakes game of<br />

chicken. And Trump could trigger a<br />

third crisis, with Iran, if he follows<br />

through with his threat to tear up<br />

last year’s agreement curbing its<br />

nuclear programme in return for<br />

sanctions relief.<br />

The temperament question<br />

During the campaign, 10 former US<br />

nuclear launch officers, who once<br />

manned missile silos and held the<br />

keys necessary to execute a launch<br />

order, signed a letter saying Trump<br />

should not have his “finger on the<br />

button” because of his temperament.<br />

One of those former officers,<br />

Bruce Blair, said that if US early<br />

warning radar showed the country<br />

was under attack by nuclear<br />

missiles, there would be time for a<br />

president to receive a briefing that<br />

could be as short as 30 seconds and<br />

the commander-in-chief would<br />

then have between three and <strong>12</strong><br />

minutes to make up his mind. He<br />

The world has five official “nuclear weapons states” – the United States,<br />

Russia, China, Britain and France, signatories of the Non-Proliferation<br />

Treaty. India, Pakistan and North Korea have also conducted nuclear<br />

tests, while Israel is widely believed to have the bomb<br />

NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES<br />

Number of warheads<br />

UNITED STATES*<br />

500<br />

RUSSIA**<br />

Sources: Federation of American Scientists, Nuclear Threat Initiative<br />

would have to take into account<br />

that the early warning system had<br />

been wrong before and could be<br />

vulnerable to ever more sophisticated<br />

hacking.<br />

North Korea<br />

Kim Jong-un has accelerated testing<br />

of nuclear weapons and missiles,<br />

and most analysts believe he<br />

will reach the capability of making<br />

a miniaturised warhead that could<br />

be put on an intercontinental ballistic<br />

missile capable of reaching<br />

the US west coast within Trump’s<br />

first term as president.<br />

Daryl Kimball, the executive<br />

director of the Arms Control Association,<br />

said that Pyongyang could<br />

2,200<br />

2,500<br />

Strategic, operationally deployed<br />

Tactical battlefield, operationally deployed (200 in Europe)<br />

CHINA<br />

400<br />

Reserve (active and inactive)<br />

Strategic, 250; tactical, 150<br />

seize the opportunity of presidential<br />

transition to test Trump’s mettle.<br />

“I am worried about the people<br />

Trump is going to put in charge on<br />

that file,” Kimball said. “He is facing<br />

a very empty bench. Many of<br />

the Republican foreign policy establishment<br />

are ‘never-Trumpers’,<br />

and the North Korea problem is not<br />

going to wait.”<br />

Trump has offered to talk to<br />

Kim, offering the possibility of<br />

breaking through the diplomatic<br />

impasse that has cut off almost all<br />

engagement with the regime. But a<br />

unilateral move could unnerve US<br />

allies in the region, already anxious<br />

about Trump’s remarks during the<br />

campaign suggesting they do not<br />

4,138<br />

FRANCE 300 Four submarines, 60 bombers,<br />

plus carrier-based aircraft<br />

UK 200 Four submarines, each armed<br />

with up to 16 Trident missiles<br />

OTHER DECLARED NUCLEAR NATIONS Trident C-4<br />

INDIA<br />

PAKISTAN<br />

N KOREA<br />

UNDECLARED<br />

ISRAEL<br />

100<br />

30-50<br />

8 est.<br />

100-200<br />

* Excludes 4,200 retired<br />

warheads of which 350<br />

are dismantled each year<br />

** Excludes 8,150 reserve<br />

or awaiting dismantlement<br />

SS-N-18 missile<br />

5,200<br />

© GRAPHIC NEWS<br />

contribute enough to deserve the<br />

shelter of the US nuclear umbrella.<br />

Iran<br />

Trump has threatened to tear up<br />

the nuclear deal six major powers<br />

signed with Iran last year, in which<br />

Iran scaled down its nuclear programme<br />

in return for relief from international<br />

sanctions. He and other<br />

Republicans have argued that the<br />

US would get more concessions if<br />

they reapplied sanctions.<br />

“That would be a catastrophic<br />

decision,” Acton said. “The other<br />

parties to this deal would still<br />

consider themselves bound by it,<br />

whether or not the US did. If we<br />

withdrew, the Iranians would demand<br />

redress, and the other parties<br />

would be sympathetic. If you<br />

want to put pressure on Iran you<br />

need multilateral sanctions. Behaving<br />

unilaterally is very unlikely<br />

to work.”<br />

Even before taking office,<br />

Trump would be under heavy pressure<br />

from the other parties to the<br />

deal – the UK, France, Germany,<br />

Russia and China – who have started<br />

investing and trading with Iran,<br />

not to deliver on his threat.<br />

Doing so could isolate the US<br />

and potentially trigger a nuclear<br />

arms race in the Gulf.<br />

Russia<br />

Trump has claimed he could improve<br />

relations with Russia, and<br />

in particular with Vladimir Putin<br />

personally, that would defuse the<br />

high tensions over Ukraine and<br />

Syria. Such deals could well be at<br />

the expense of the people of those<br />

countries, but could conceivably<br />

lessen the chances of a complete<br />

end to arms control and the return<br />

to an expensive and dangerous nuclear<br />

arms race. Hans Kristensen, a<br />

nuclear expert at the Federation of<br />

American Scientists (FAS), points<br />

out that the deepest cuts in nuclear<br />

arsenals have been achieved by Republican<br />

administrations.<br />

“Republicans love nuclear<br />

weapons reductions, as long as<br />

they’re not proposed by a Democratic<br />

president,” Kristensen wrote<br />

on an FAS blog.<br />

“That is the lesson from decades<br />

of US nuclear weapons and arms<br />

control management. If that trend<br />

continues, then we can expect the<br />

new Donald Trump administration<br />

to reduce the US nuclear weapons<br />

arsenal more than the Obama administration<br />

did.”<br />

The current arms treaty limiting<br />

the strategic arsenals of both countries,<br />

New Start, expires in 2021.<br />

A decision will have to be made<br />

whether to replace it or let arms<br />

control wither. Both Putin and<br />

Trump could save tens of billions of<br />

dollars by cutting arsenals. As part<br />

of any deal, however, Putin would<br />

ask for the scrapping of the US missile<br />

defence system currently being<br />

erected in eastern Europe. Any<br />

concessions on the US trillion-dollar<br />

nuclear weapon modernisation<br />

programme, which Trump endorses<br />

in his transition website, would<br />

bring him in direct conflict with the<br />

Republican establishment.<br />

“I could imagine Trump personally<br />

being more flexible,” Acton<br />

said. “But it would set up a huge<br />

fight with Congress. Congress loves<br />

missile defence.” •

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