ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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BU8g14

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX

Page 1 of 6

Twitter: @researchvaf

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

PENGUMUMAN

Berkenaan dengan libur Tahun Baru (01-02 Januari 2017), maka untuk Daily Bulletin STOCK INDEX (Indonesia) saat ini

berlaku untuk 2 hari (02-03 Januari 2017).

Asia: Saham Asia catat kenaikan tahunan pertamanya dalam 3 tahun, sementara dolar membalik kerugian awal dan minyak membukukan

kenaikan terbesar dalam 7 tahun. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,5% pada hari Jumat, kontras dengan gerak

Wall Street malam sebelumnya. Dalam setahun yang ditandai dengan guncangan politik besar, termasuk Brexit pada bulan Juni dan

terpilihnya Donald Trump diluar dugaan sebagai presiden AS pada bulan November, saham Asia Pacific ex-Jepang catat keuntungan 3,8%.

Indeks CSI 300 Cina bertambah sekitar 0,4% dalam sesi pertama kenaikannya di pekan kemarin. Namun indeks daratan membukukan

kinerja terburuk di Asia Pasifik dengan penurunan sekitar 12%. Hang Seng naik 1%, reli 1 hari terbesarnya dalam 5-1/2 minggu, membantu

indeks meraih keuntungan 0,6% di tahun 2016. Thailand menjadi pasar berkinerja terbaik setelah menguat hampir 20%, diikuti oleh

Indonesia dengan 16%. Bersamaan dengan Cina, Malaysia turun 3,4% dan Filipina turun 1,5%. Sedangkan Nikkei Jepang terkoreksi 0,2% di

hari Jumat dan menutup 2016 dengan hanya naik 0,4%.

Eropa: Bursa Eropa catat kerugian tipis untuk 2016, meskipun keuntungan yang kuat di antara saham-saham pertambangan dan sektor

minyak dan gas serta perputaran di bank-bank di bagian akhir tahun memberikan dukungan, sementara indeks FTSE 100 Inggris mendaki

ke rekor tertingginya. Indeks STOXX 600 Eropa ditutup naik hanya 0,3%, meskipun hampir seluruh indeks utama regional menguat.

Naiknya saham pertambangan telah membantu indeks FTSE 100 Inggris menguat 14,4% di tahun 2016, menjadikannya sebagai yang

berkinerja terbaik diantara indeks saham Eropa meskipun ada kejutan dari hasil voting Brexit di bulan Juni.

AS & Global Markets: Dolar, minyak dan saham AS terkoreksi pada hari Jumat dalam sesi perdagangan yang tipis dan yang terakhir di

tahun 2016, namun berhasil ditutup menguat tahun ini.

Dolar catat kenaikan tahunan keempatnya secara berturut-turut terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya, sementara minyak bukukan kenaikan

tahunan terbesarnya sejak 2009.

Dolar telah reli sejak terpilihnya Donald Trump sebagai presiden AS menyusul rencananya untuk mendorong stimulus fiskal. Ekspektasi

kenaikan suku bunga The Fed yang akan berlanjut di tahun 2017 juga turut dukung greenback.

Emas juga catat penguatan besarnya di tahun 2016, naik 8,5%, sekaligus mengakhiri koreksinya selama 3 tahun terakhir.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH

38915.87

(29/Dec/89)

295.51

(03/May/11)

31958.41

(30/Oct/07)

18351.36

(19/May/2015)

2134.72

(20/May/2015)

6124.04400

(16/Oct./07)

2015 HIGH

20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11

(24/Apr/2015)

28588.52

(27/Apr/2015)

18351.36

(19/May/2015)

2134.72

(20/May/2015)

5178.19100

(12/Jun/2015)

2016 HIGH

19592.90

(21/Dec/16)

264.42

(21/Dec/16)

24364.00

(09/Sep/16)

19987.63

(20/Dec/16)

2277.53

(13/Dec/16)

3538.68940

(04/Jan/16)

2016 LOW

14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92

(20/Jan/16)

18278.80

(12/Feb/16)

15450.56

(20/Jan/16)

1810.10

(11/Feb/16)

2638.30160

(27/Jan/16)

2015 LOW

16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52

(24/Aug/2015)

20368.12

(29/Sep/2015)

15370.33

(24/Aug/2015)

1867.01

(24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350

(26/Aug/2015)

RECORD LOW

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

31.96

(16/Jun/98)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93

(23/Nov./82)

325.92200

(29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 30 December 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 19762.60 57.18/ 0.29% .N225 19114.37 30.77/0.16%

/.SPX 2238.83 10.43 / 0.46% .KS200 HOLIDAY 0.31/0.12%

/.IXIC 5383.117 48.971/ 0.90% .HSI 22000.56 209.65/0.96%

JPY= 116.87 0.34/ 0.29% /.SSEC 3103.40370 7.30690/0.24%

KRW= 1206.25 0.86 / 0.07% /CLc1 (Oil) 53.89 0.12 / 0.22%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or

indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/26-Dec-16 06:50 JP BOJ Minutes of Oct. 31-Nov.1 Meeting

11:00 JP BOJ Kuroda speaks in Keidanren

All Day US Bank Holiday/ Christmas (Observed)

All Day AU Bank Holiday/ Christmas Day

Tue/27-Dec-16 04:00 KR Consumer Confidence Dec 94.2 N/A 96

06:30 JP CPI Index Nov 100.4 N/A 100.4

06:30 JP Unemployment Rate Nov 3.1% 3.0% 3.0%

06:30 JP Job-To-Applicant Ratio Nov 1.41 1.41 1.40

06:30 JP All Household Spending YY* Nov -1.5% 0.2% -0.4%

06:30 JP All Household Spending MM Nov -0.6% 0.4% -1.0%

06:30 JP CPI Core Nationwide YY Nov -0.4% -0.3% -0.4%

06:30 JP CPI Overall Nationwide Nov 0.5% N/A 0.1%

06:30 JP CPI Core Tokyo YY* Dec -0.6% -0.4% -0.4%

06:30 JP CPI Overall Tokyo Dec 0% N/A 0.5%

12:00 JP Housing Starts YY Nov 6.7% 10.2% 13.7% 13.1%

12:00 JP Construction Orders YY* Nov -6.0% N/A 15.2%

21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM SA Oct 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5%

21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Oct 0.1% N/A 0.1%

21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM YY Oct 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%

22:00 US Consumer Confidence Dec 113.7 108.5 107.1 109.4

22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Dec 8 5 4

22:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Dec 15.5 N/A 10.20

All Day AU Boxing Day/Proclamation Day

Wed/28-Dec-16 06:50 JP Industrial Production Prelim Nov 1.5% 1.6% 0.0%

06:50 JP Retail Sales YY Nov 1.7% 0.8% -0.1%

22:00 US Pending Home Index Nov 107.3 N/A 110.0

22:00 US Pending Sales Change MM Nov -2.5% 0.5% 0.1%

22:30 US Texas Serv Sect Outlook* Dec 19.4 N/A 12.6

22:30 US Dallas Fed Sevices Reve Dec 20.6 N/A 13.7

Thu/29-Dec-16 04:00 KR BOK Manufacturing BSI Jan 73 N/A 72

06:00 KR Industrial Production Growth Nov 3.4% 1.0% -1.7% -1.3%

06:00 KR Industrial Production YY Nov 4.8% 2.2% -1.6% -1.3%

06:00 KR Service Sector Output Growth Nov 0.1% N/A -0.2% -0.3%

06:50 JP BOJ Summary of Opinions at Dec.19-20 Meeting

15:30 HK Exports* Nov 8.1% -1.0% -1.8%

15:30 HK Imports* Nov 7.6% 1.5% 0.5%

20:30 US Adv Goods Trade Balance Nov -65.30b -61.50b -61.99b

20:30 US Adv Retail Invty Ex Auto Nov 0.5 N/A -0.3 -0.2

20:30 US Adv Wholesale Invty Nov 0.9 0.1 -0.4 -0.1

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 265k 264k 275k

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e 263k N/A 263.75k

20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.102m 2.030m 2.036m 2.039m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 0.614m -2.060m 2.256m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e -1.881m 1.780m -2.420m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e -1.593m 1.320m -1.309m

Fri/30-Dec-16 06:00 KR CPI Growth* Dec 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%

06:00 KR CPI Growth YY Dec 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

07:30 AU Private Sector Credit* Nov 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

07:30 AU Housing Credit* Nov 0.5% N/A 0.6%

15:30 HK Money Supply M3* Nov 8.7% N/A 8.10%

21:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Dec 54.6 57.0 57.6

Sat/31-Dec-16 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Dec-30 N/A N/A

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

Page 3 of 6

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/02-Jan-2017 07:00 KR Export Growth Prelim* Dec 6.4% 2.5%

07:00 KR Import Growth Prelim* Dec 6.8% 9.3%

07:00 KR Trade Balance Prelim Dec N/A 8.20b

08:00 CN NBS Non-Mfg PMI* Dec N/A 54.70

08:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI Dec 51.5 51.7

All Day US Bank Holiday/New Year’s Day (Observed)

All Day JP Bank Holiday/New Year’s Day/Exchange Holiday

Tue/03-Jan-2017 07:30 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Dec N/A 48.0

14:00 KR Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes

15:30 HK Retail Sales YY Nov -3.0% -2.9%

21:45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Dec 54.2 54.2

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Dec 53.5 53.2

22:00 US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Dec 55.5 54.5

22:00 US ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Dec N/A 53.0

22:00 US ISM Manuf Employment Idx Dec 52.6 52.3

22:00 US Construction Spending MM Nov 0.5% 0.5%

Wed/04-Jan-2017 04:00 KR Foreign Reserves Dec N/A 371.99b

06:00 KR Current Account Balance Nov N/A 6.01b

08:45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Dec 50.7 50.9

20:15 US ADP National Employment Dec 170k 216k

21:45 US ISM-New York Index Dec N/A 720.5

21:45 US ISM NY Biz Conditions Dec N/A 52.5

Thu/05-Jan-2017 02:00 US U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. 13-14 FOMC Meeting

15:30 HK Nikkei PMI Dec N/A 49.5

19:30 US Challenger Layoffs Dec N/A 26.936k

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e N/A 265k

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e N/A 263k

20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e N/A 2.102m

21:45 US Markit Services PMI Final Dec 53.4 53.4

21:45 US Markit Composite Final PMI Dec N/A 53.7

22:00 US ISM N-Mfg PMI Dec 56.8 57.2

23:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e N/A 0.614m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e N/A -1.881m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e N/A -1.593m

Fri/06-Jan-2017 06:00 JP Overtime Pay Nov N/A -1.4%

07:30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Nov -550m -1541m

07:30 AU Goods/Services Imports Nov N/A 2.0%

07:30 AU Goods/Services Exports Nov N/A 1.0%

08:45 CN Caixin Services PMI Dec N/A 53.1

15:30 HK Foreign Reserves Dec N/A 385.00b

20:30 US International Trade MM $ Nov -42.0b -42.6b

20:30 US Non-farm Payrolls Dec 175k 178k

20:30 US Private Payrolls Dec 170k 156k

20:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls Dec 0k -4k

20:30 US Government Payrolls Dec 9k 22k

20:30 US Unemployment Rate Dec 4.7% 4.6%

20:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MM Dec 0.3% -0.1%

20:30 US Average Weekly Hours All Employees Dec 34.4h 34.4h

20:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Dec N/A 62.7%

20:30 US U6 Underemployment Rate Dec N/A 9.3%

22:00 US Factory Orders MM Nov -2.2% 2.7%

22:00 US Factory Orders Ex-Trans MM Nov N/A 0.8%

22:00 US Durable Goods Orders Rev MM Nov N/A -4.6%

22:00 US Durables Ex-Transportation Rev MM Nov N/A 0.5%

22:00 US Nondef Cap Ex-Air Rev MM Nov N/A 0.9%

23:00 CN FX Reserves (Monthly)* Dec N/A 3.052t

Sat/07-Jan-2017 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jan 6

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

Page 4 of 6

SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017

Rebound masih terbatas,

dengan area krusial di 19000

masih diuji

Short-term support berada di

sekitar 18500 – 18200

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

30 Dec SSIpmH7 19080 19125 19000 125 19000 --- 70 0.37 9734

30 Dec SSIamH7 19040 19170 18970 200 19070 19070 5 0.03 41787

29 Dec SSIpmH7 19035 19085 18925 160 19000 --- 65 0.34 23470

29 Dec SSIamH7 19330 19330 19060 270 19065 19065 390 2.00 51673

28 Dec SSIpmH7 19445 19470 19295 175 19315 --- 140 0.72 9292

28 Dec SSIamH7 19400 19455 19355 100 19455 19455 110 0.57 28862

27 Dec SSIpmH7 19350 19435 19350 85 19400 --- 55 0.28 6583

27 Dec SSIamH7 19370 19445 19320 125 19345 19345 50 0.26 27112

26 Dec SSIpmH7 H O L I D A Y

26 Dec SSIamH7 H O L I D A Y

WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

19470 18925 19615 18225 18660 16095 19615 14770

(28/Dec) (29/Dec) (20/Dec) (05/Dec) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (20/Dec) (12/Feb)

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

19615 Reaction high (1-H chart)

19560 Reaction high (1-H chart)

19475 Reaction high (1-H chart)

19170 Reaction high (1-H chart)

18925 Reaction low (1-H chart)

18760 Reaction low (1-H chart)

18605 Reaction low (1-H chart)

18490 Reaction low (1-H chart)

BUY ----

SELL 19085

STOP LOSS 19175

18900

TARGET

18800

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

Page 5 of 6

KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017

Koreksi masih terbatas dengan

area support di 259 masih

efektif

Reli hadapi resistance krusial di

260.95

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE

%

CHANGE

VOLUME

30 Dec H O L I D A Y

29 Dec 259.90 260.35 259.25 1.10 260.05 260.05 0.35 0.13 74134

28 Dec 260.05 260.75 259.95 0.80 260.40 260.40 0.90 0.35 73974

27 Dec 258.90 259.50 258.85 0.65 259.50 259.50 0.60 0.23 33823

26 Dec H O L I D A Y

23 Dec 258.80 259.10 258.45 0.65 258.60 258.60 0.50 0.19 51643

WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

260.75 258.85 260.95 251.45 257.45 246.80 262.50 223.10

(28/Dec) (27/Dec) (21/Dec) (05/Dec) (09/Nov) (09/Nov) (08/Sep) (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

264.15 High 27/May/2015

262.40 High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high)

262.10 High 07/Sep/2016

260.95 Double Top

258.45 Reaction low (1-H chart)

256.50 Low 15/Dec/2016

255.25 Reaction low (1-H chart)

253.50 Pivot line (1-H chart)

BUY 259.60

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 258.25

TARGET

261.00

262.00

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Senin-Selasa 02-03 Januari 2017

Page 6 of 6

HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017

Rebound berkembang, uji

tembus area 22000, setelah

hit day high di 22056

Area support di 21477 masih

utuh

Rebound hadapi resistance di

22100

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE

%

CHANGE

VOLUME

30 Dec (HSIF7) 21831 22056 21813 243 21964 21962 175 0.80 74242

29 Dec (HSIF7) 21573 21799 21510 289 21789 21789 58 0.27 78579

28 Dec (HSIF7) 21516 21800 21497 303 21731 21731 180 0.84 72108

28 Dec (HSIZ6) 21500 21790 21482 308 21721 21721 183 0.85 102606

26-27 Dec H O L I D A Y

23 Dec 21555 21594 21477 117 21538 21538 77 0.36 128271

22 Dec 21738 21819 21591 228 21615 21615 224 1.03 105514

WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

22056 21477 23146 21477 23286 21904 24374 18217

(30/Dec) (23/Dec) (08/Dec) (23/Dec) (01/Nov) (09/Nov) (09/Sep) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

22648 High 14/Dec/2016 (Reaction high)

22520 High 15/Dec/2016

22136 Reaction high (4-H chart)

22100 Pivot line (1-D chart)

21766 Reaction low (15-Minute)

21477 Low 23/Dec/2016 (Reaction low)

21259 Low 14/Jul/2016 (Reaction low)

21195 Pivot line

BUY 21850

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 21750

TARGET

22120

22250

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

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