ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Rabu 11 Januari 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX

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Twitter: @researchvaf

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Asia: Pasar saham Asia menguat di hari Selasa sementara minyak mentah berada dekat level terendah 3 minggu, dengan

investor belum jelas apakah penurunan produksi oleh beberapa eksportir utama akan cukup untuk mengimbangi

meningkatnya pasokan dari produsen lain. Sterling meluaskan koreksinya menyusul penutupan terendahnya dalam 3 bulan

oleh kekhawatiran terjadinya “hard” Brexit. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang meningkat 0,5% Namun

Nikkei ditutup melemah 0,8% akibat menguatnya yen. Indeks CSI 300 Cina juga tidak banyak bereaksi meskipun adanya

indikasi meningkatnya sektor industri. Data sebelumnya menunjukkan PPI naik ke level tertinggi lebih dari 5 tahun di bulan

Desember karena bahan baku melonjak.

Eropa: Indeks FTSE 100 tembus rekor tertinggi baru pada hari Selasa, didukung oleh naiknya saham ritel, sementara reli di

saham pertambangan mampu meredam tekanan dari sektor finansial, membantu indeks saham Eropa ditutup menguat tipis.

Indeks STOXX 600 berakhir naik 0,1% sementara FTSE 100 naik 0,5% setelah tembus new all-time high di 7284.81 poin.

Indeks saham CAC Perancis bergerak datar dan DAX Jerman bertambah 0,2%.

AS & Global Markets: Bursa AS berakhir beragam di hari Selasa kemarin dengan Nasdaq capai puncak intraday, sementara

dolar jatuh terhadap yen karena investor berhati-hati jelang konferensi pers pertama oleh presiden AS terpilih Donald

Trump hari Rabu ini. Investor akan mencermati setiap kemungkinan kebijakan ekonomi terhadap Cina dan juga domestik.

Komoditas seperti tembaga naik oleh indikasi membaiknya ekonomi Cina. Sedangkan harga minyak melemah terbatas usai

jatuh hampir 4% di sesi sebelumnya.

Mata uang peso jatuh terhadap dolar ke rekor terendahnya karena kekhawatiran mengenai kebijakan proteksi Trump.

Sterling berhasil rebound di sesi New York setelah sempat merosot ke level terendah 10 minggu terhadap dolar di awal sesi.

Prospek pound masih lemah, terutama setelah komentar akhir pekan oleh Perdana Menteri Theresa Mei.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH

38915.87

(29/Dec/89)

295.51

(03/May/11)

31958.41

(30/Oct/07)

19987.63

(20/Dec/16)

2282.10

(06/Jan/2017)

6124.04400

(16/Oct./07)

2016 HIGH

19592.90

(21/Dec/16)

264.42

(21/Dec/16)

24364.00

(09/Sep/16)

19987.63

(20/Dec/16)

2277.53

(13/Dec/16)

3538.68940

(04/Jan/16)

2017 HIGH

19999.63

(06/Jan/2017)

264.55

(09/Jan/217)

22744.85

(10/Jan/2017)

19957.12

(10/Jan/2017)

2282.10

(06/Jan/2017)

3174.57810

(10/Jan/2017)

2017 LOW

19255.35

(10/Jan/2017)

258.64

(02/Jan/2017)

21883.82

(03/Jan/2017)

19775.93

(03/Jan/2017)

2245.13

(03/Jan/2017)

3105.30850

(03/Jan/2017)

2016 LOW

14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92

(20/Jan/16)

18278.80

(12/Feb/16)

15450.56

(20/Jan/16)

1810.10

(11/Feb/16)

2638.30160

(27/Jan/16)

RECORD LOW

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

31.96

(16/Jun/98)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93

(23/Nov./82)

325.92200

(29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 10 January 2017

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 19855.53 31.85/ 0.16% .N225 19301.44 152.89/0.79%

/.SPX 2268.90 0.00/ 0.00% .KS200 263.73 0.01/0.00%

/.IXIC 5551.819 20.001/ 0.36% .HSI 22744.85 186.16/0.83%

JPY= 115.72 0.29/ 0.25% /.SSEC 3161.89300 9.34320/0.29%

KRW= 1200.77 1.58 / 0.13% /CLc1 (Oil) 50.78 1.18 / 2.27%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or

indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Rabu 11 Januari 2017

Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/09-Jan-17 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Dec 47.0 N/A 46.6

07:30 AU Building Approvals MM Nov 7.0% 5.0% -12.6% -11.8

07:30 AU Private House Approvals Nov -0.2% N/A -3.4% -2.3%

07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Dec -1.9% N/A 1.7%

14:00 DE Industrial Production SA MM Nov 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5%

14:00 DE Trade Balance Nov 21.7b 21.3b 20.5b 20.6b

14:00 DE Exports SA MM Nov 3.9% 0.5% 0.5%

14:00 DE Imports SA MM Nov 3.5% 0.2% 1.3% 1.2%

15:15 CH Retail Sales Real YY Nov 0.9% N/A -0.5% -0.7%

15:30 GB Halifax House Prices MM Dec 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%

15:30 GB Halifax House Price 3Mths/YY Dec 6.5% 5.8% 6.0%

16:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Jan 18.2 12.5 10.0

17:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Nov 9.8% 9.8% 9.8%

21:00 US Fed's Roesengren Speaks in Hartford, Connecticut

21:50 GB Bank of England Bond Buying Operation

Tue/10-Jan-17 00:45 US Fed's Lockhart Speaks to the Rotary Club of Atlanta

03:00 US Consumer Credit Nov 24.53b 18.48b 16.02b 16.17b

07:01 GB BRC Retail Sales YY Dec 1.0% N/A 0.6%

07:30 AU Retail Sales MM Nov 0.2% 0.4% 0.5%

08:30 CN CPI YY Dec 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%

08:30 CN CPI MM Dec 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

08:30 CN PPI YY Dec 5.5% 4.5% 3.3%

12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index Dec 43.1 N/A 40.9

13:45 CH Unemployment Rate Dec 3.5% N/A 3.3%

13:45 CH Unemployment Rate SA Dec 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Idx Dec 105.8 N/A 98.40

20:15 CA Housing Starts Dec 207.0k 195.0k 184.0k 187.3k

20:30 CA Building Permits MM Nov -0.1% -5.0% 8.7% 10.5%

21:50 GB Bank of England Bond Buying Operation

22:00 US Wholesale Inventories Rev MM Nov 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%

22:00 US Wholesale Sales MM Nov 0.4% 0.5% 1.4% 1.1%

N/A EZ Iran, International Negotiators Meet in Vienna

Wed/11-Jan-17 04:00 KR Import Price Index YY Dec -- 3.6%

04:00 KR Import Price Index MM Dec -- 2.4%

06:00 KR Unemployment rate SA Dec 3.6% 3.6%

11~20 Jan N/A CN Foreign Direct Investment YY CNY Dec 0.8% 3.9%

11~14 Jan N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY* Dec 11.5% 11.4%

11~14 Jan N/A CN New Yuan Loans* Dec 700.0b 794.6b

11~14 Jan N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Dec 13.1% 13.1%

06:50 JP Official Reserve Assets Dec N/A 1219.3b

07:30 AU Job vacancies Nov -- 4.60%

10:00 KR Export Price Index MM Dec -- 4.10%

10:00 KR Export Price Index YY Dec -- 3.80%

16:30 GB Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Nov -11.40b -9.711b

16:30 GB Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Nov -- -1.598b

16:30 GB Industrial Production MM Nov 0.70% -1.30%

16:30 GB Industrial Production YY Nov 0.60% -1.10%

16:30 GB Manufacturing Production MM Nov 0.50% -0.90%

16:30 GB Manufacturing Production YY Nov 0.60% -0.40%

16:30 GB Construction Output SA MM Nov 0.20% -0.60%

16:30 GB Construction Output SA YY Nov 2.00% 0.70%

21:50 GB Bank of England Bond Buying Operation

22:00 GB NIESR GDP Estimate Dec -- 0.40%

22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 0.620m -7.051m

22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e 0.720m 10.051m

22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e 1.520m 8.307m

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Rabu 11 Januari 2017

Page 3 of 6

Thu/12-Jan-17 06:50 JP BoP Current Account Balance Nov ¥1500.0b ¥1719.9b

06:50 JP BoP Current Account Adjusted Nov ¥1767.2b ¥1928.9b

06:50 JP Trade Balance BoP Basis Nov ¥246.6b ¥587.6b

10:00 KR Money Supply M2 SA MM Nov -- 0.30%

10:00 KR Money Supply L SA MM Nov -- 0.50%

16:00 DE GDP NSA YY 2016 1.80% 1.70%

17:00 EZ Industrial Production SA MM Nov 0.50% -0.10%

17:00 EZ Industrial Production WDA YY Nov 1.60% 0.60%

19:30 EZ ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting

20:30 CA New Housing Price Index MM Nov 0.20% 0.40%

20:30 CA New Housing Price Index YY Nov -- 3.00%

20:30 US Import Price MM Dec 0.7% -0.3%

20:30 US Export Price MM Dec 0.1% -0.1%

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 255k 235k

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e N/A 256.75k

20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.118m 2.112m

20:30 US Import Price YY Dec 0.7% -0.3%

20:30 US Export Price MM Dec 0.1% -0.1%

20:30 US Fed's Harker Speaks in Malvern, Pennsylvania

20:30 US Fed's Evans and Lockhart Take Part in Panel in Naples, Florida

Fri/13-Jan-17 00:30 US Fed's Lockhart Speaks to Naples, Florida Chamber of Commerce

01:15 US Fed's Bullard Speaks in New York on U.S. Outlook

01:15 CN Trade Balance Dec $46.50b $44.61b

01:15 CN Exports YY Dec -3.50% 0.10%

01:15 CN Imports YY Dec 2.70% 6.70%

02:00 US Federal Budget.$ Dec -25.00b -137.0b

12:30 JP Bankruptcies YY Dec -- -2.53%

14:00 DE Wholesale Price Index MM Dec -- 0.10%

14:00 DE Wholesale Price Index YY Dec -- 0.80%

20:30 US PPI Final Demand YY Dec 1.60% 1.30%

20:30 US PPI Final Demand MM Dec 0.30% 0.40%

20:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YY Dec 1.50% 1.60%

20:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MM Dec 0.20% 0.40%

20:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YY Dec -- 1.80%

20:30 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MM Dec -- 0.20%

20:30 US Retail Sales Advance MM Dec 0.70% 0.10%

20:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MM Dec 0.50% 0.20%

20:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Dec -- 0.20%

20:30 US Retail Sales Control Group Dec 0.40% 0.10%

21:00 CA Existing Home Sales MM Dec -- -5.30%

21:30 US Fed's Harker Speaks on Economic Mobility in Philadelphia

22:00 US Business Inventories Nov 0.40% -0.20%

22:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Preliminary Jan 98.5 98.2

22:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Preliminary Jan 111.5 111.9

22:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Preliminary Jan 90.2 89.5

14-Jan-17 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count 13-Jan -- --

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Rabu 11 Januari 2017

Page 4 of 6

SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017

Trendline support di sekitar

19270

Rebound hadapi level krusial

di 19475

Short-term support di 19170

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

10 Jan SSIpmH7 19335 19415 19290 125 19325 --- 15 0.08 20031

10 Jan SSIamH7 19415 19480 19240 240 19310 19310 370 1.88 62888

09 Jan SSIpmH7 19670 19680 19370 310 19420 --- 260 1.32 10868

09 Jan SSIamH7 19550 19695 19540 155 19680 19680 270 1.39 7616

06 Jan SSIpmH7 19450 19620 19400 220 19620 --- 210 1.08 22919

06 Jan SSIamH7 19395 19460 19310 150 19410 19410 60 0.31 41585

05 Jan SSIpmH7 19445 19550 19365 185 19430 --- 40 0.21 27791

05 Jan SSIamH7 19615 19650 19455 195 19470 19470 130 0.66 54123

04 Jan SSIpmH7 19615 19665 19520 145 19645 --- 45 0.23 20419

04 Jan SSIamH7 19290 19635 19260 375 19600 19600 375 1.95 60530

WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

19695 19240 19695 19140 19615 18225 19695 19140

(09/Jan) (10/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (20/Dec) (05/Dec) (09/Jan) (03/Jan)

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

20340 High 20/Aug/2015

20035 Peak level

19890 High 18/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

19695 Peak level (1-H chart)

19240 Reaction low (1-H chart)

19140 Reaction low (1-H chart)

19000 Reaction low (1-H chart)

18925 Reaction low (1-H chart)

BUY 19315

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 19225

19450

TARGET

19585

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Rabu 11 Januari 2017

Page 5 of 6

KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017

Rebound uji peak level di

264.65

Hourly trend bullish

Strong support di 260.95

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE

%

CHANGE

VOLUME

10 Jan 263.20 264.30 263.20 1.10 264.00 264.00 0.05 0.02 86405

09 Jan 263.95 264.65 263.70 0.95 264.05 264.05 0.40 0.15 83543

06 Jan 262.95 264.15 262.90 1.25 263.65 263.65 1.00 0.38 89902

05 Jan 263.05 263.35 262.30 1.05 262.65 262.65 0.70 0.27 86761

04 Jan 263.00 263.55 262.80 0.75 263.35 263.35 0.15 0.06 72336

03 Jan 261.75 263.20 261.35 1.85 163.20 263.20 2.00 0.77 89599

WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

264.65 263.20 264.65 259.25 260.95 251.45 264.65 259.25

(09/Jan) (10/Jan) (09/Jan) (02/Jan) (21/Dec) (05/Dec) (09/Jan) (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

269.60 High 04/May/2015 (Reaction high)

267.75 High 06/May/2015

266.35 High 26/May/2015 (Peak)

264.65 High 09/Jan/2017

262.30 Low 05/Jan/2017

261.35 Low 03/Jan/2017

258.45 Reaction low (1-H chart)

256.50 Low 15/Dec/2016

BUY 263.50

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 262.25

TARGET

265.35

266.25

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Rabu 11 Januari 2017

Page 6 of 6

HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017

Reli berlanjut dekati area

resistance berikutnya di

sekitar 22926 (50%

retracement of wave 24374-

21477)

Waspadai RSI sudah

overbought

Support krusial di sekitar

22100

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE

%

CHANGE

VOLUME

10 Jan 22538 22744 22517 227 22739 22739 166 0.74 82677

09 Jan 22595 22637 22471 166 22573 22573 42 0.19 80466

06 Jan 22540 22625 22464 161 22531 22531 53 0.24 76530

05 Jan 22254 22494 22207 287 22478 22484 379 1.72 86436

04 Jan 22175 22233 22058 175 22099 22099 46 0.21 77437

03 Jan 21920 22195 21863 332 22145 22145 183 0.83 78680

02 Jan H O L I D A Y

WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

22744 22471 22744 21863 23146 21477 22744 21863

(10/Jan) (09/Jan) (10/Jan) (03/Jan) (08/Dec) (23/Dec) (10/Jan) (03/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23389 High 27/Oct/2016

23286 High 01/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

23146 High 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction high)

22882 Reaction high ( 4-H chart)

22650 Pivot line (4-H chart)

22464 Reaction low (4-H chart)

22320 Pivot line (4-H chart)

22058 Reaction low (4-H chart)

BUY 22745

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 22625

TARGET

22900

23025

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

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