ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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6EUm8a

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Selasa 17 Januari 2017

ASIA STOCK INDEX

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Twitter: @researchvaf

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

Asia: Kekhawatiran terhadap langkah proteksi Donald Trump atas produk Cina telah menekan bursa Asia pada hari Senin,

dengan indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang turun 0,5%, Nikkei terkoreksi 1% dan Shanghai merosot 0,3%.

Semua mata kemudian akan tertuju pada pelantikan Trump pada hari Jumat untuk kejelasan tentang rencana ekonominya.

Eropa: Saham Eropa jatuh pada hari Senin, dipimpin oleh rontoknya saham perbankan, meskipun ada kenaikan pada saham

produsen kacamata Luxottica dan Essilor setelah 2 perusahaan tersebut menyepakati merger senilai 46 miliar euro. Indeks

STOXX 600 merosot 0,8%, namun melemahnya sterling mampu angkat indeks FTSE 100 untuk naik menembus rekor

tertingginya pasca catat kenaikan beruntun selama 14 sesi.

AS & Global Markets: Investor menjual sterling dan saham pada hari Senin dan memburu emas dan juga yen ditengah

situasi yang penuh ketidakpastian seputar langkah Inggris untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa dan juga prospek kebijakan politik

Donald Trump.

Emas berhasil tembus level tertinggi sejak November sedangkan minyak bergerak cukup stabil.

Pekan ini investor akan menyoroti sidang ECB (Kamis) dan inagurasi Donald Trump (Jumat) sebagai Presiden AS ke 45.

Sejumlah komentar petinggi AS juga akan dicermati sebelum pelaksanaan inagurasi Trump untuk melihat prospek kenaikan

suku bunga The Fed berikutnya di tahun 2017.

Sterling telah jatuh sejak terjadinya Brexit, untuk itu pernyataan PM Inggris Theresa May (Selasa) akan dicermati untuk

melihat pola pendekatan pemerintahan yang seperti apa yang akan diterapkan May untuk menyelesaikan soal Brexit. Jika

ada indikasi dilakukan “Hard Brexit” maka sterling berpotensi kembali terpuruk.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH

38915.87

(29/Dec/89)

295.51

(03/May/11)

31958.41

(30/Oct/07)

19987.63

(20/Dec/16)

2282.10

(06/Jan/2017)

6124.04400

(16/Oct./07)

2016 HIGH

19592.90

(21/Dec/16)

264.42

(21/Dec/16)

24364.00

(09/Sep/16)

19987.63

(20/Dec/16)

2277.53

(13/Dec/16)

3538.68940

(04/Jan/16)

2017 HIGH

19999.63

(06/Jan/2017)

269.95

(12/Jan/217)

22971.49

(12/Jan/2017)

19973.42

(11/Jan/2017)

2282.10

(06/Jan/2017)

3174.57810

(10/Jan/2017)

2017 LOW

19061.27

(16/Jan/2017)

258.64

(02/Jan/2017)

21883.82

(03/Jan/2017)

19770.47

(12/Jan/2017)

2245.13

(03/Jan/2017)

3044.29120

(16/Jan/2017)

2016 LOW

14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92

(20/Jan/16)

18278.80

(12/Feb/16)

15450.56

(20/Jan/16)

1810.10

(11/Feb/16)

2638.30160

(27/Jan/16)

RECORD LOW

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

31.96

(16/Jun/98)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93

(23/Nov./82)

325.92200

(29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 16 January 2017

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI HOLIDAY 5.27/ 0.03% .N225 19095.24 192.04/1.00%

/.SPX HOLIDAY 4.20/ 0.18% .KS200 266.15 1.76/0.66%

/.IXIC HOLIDAY 26.629/ 0.48% .HSI 22718.15 219.23/0.96%

JPY= 114.18 0.33/ 0.29% /.SSEC 3102.69450 10.06990/0.32%

KRW= 1182.37 8.37 / 0.71% /CLc1 (Oil) 52.64 0.27 / 0.52%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or

indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Selasa 17 Januari 2017

Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/16-Jan-2017 06:50 JP Machinery Orders MM Nov -5.1% -1.4% 4.1%

06:50 JP Machinery Orders YY Nov 10.4% 8.1% -5.6%

06:50 JP Corp Goods Price MM Dec 0.6% 0.4% 0.4%

06:50 JP Corp Goods Price YY Dec -1.2% -1.4% -2.2%

All Day US Bank Holiday/Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Tue/17-Jan-2017 07:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Dec N/A -0.6%

07:30 AU Housing Finance Nov 0.1% -0.8%

07:30 AU Invest Housing Finance Nov N/A 0.7%

11:30 JP Industrial Production Rev* Nov 1.5% 1.5%

11:30 JP Capacity Util Idx Chg MM Nov N/A 1.4%

20:30 US NY Fed Manufacturing Jan 8.20 9.00

20:45 US Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York

Wed/18-Jan-2017 06:00 US Fed's Williams Speaks in Sacramento

18~19Jan 06:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Jan N/A -3.9%

20:30 US CPI MM. SA Dec 0.3% 0.2%

20:30 US CPI YY. NSA Dec 2.1% 1.7%

20:30 US Core CPI MM. SA Dec 0.2% 0.2%

20:30 US Core CPI YY. NSA Dec 2.1% 2.1%

20:30 US Core CPI Index. SA Dec N/A 249.36

20:30 US CPI Index. NSA Dec N/A 241.35

20:30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Dec N/A 0.3%

21:15 US Industrial Production MM Dec 0.6% -0.4%

21:15 US Capacity Utilization MM Dec 75.4% 75.0%

21:15 US Manuf Output MM Dec 0.2% -0.1%

22:00 US NAHB Housing Market Indx Jan 69 70

23:00 US Fed's Kashkari Speaks on Economy in Minneapolis

23:30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Dec N/A 0.2%

Thu/19-Jan-2017 02:00 US Fed Beige Book

03:00 US Fed's Yellen Speaks in San Francisco

04:00 US Net L-T Flows. Exswaps Nov N/A 9.4b

04:00 US Foreign Buying. T-Bonds Nov N/A -63.5b

04:00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Nov N/A 18.8b

04:00 US Net L-T Flows. Incl. Swaps Nov N/A -12.9b

04:00 KR PPI Growth YY Dec N/A 0.7%

04:00 KR PPI Growth Dec N/A 0.4%

N/A CN China Houses Price YY Dec N/A 12.6%

07:30 AU Employment Dec 10.0k 39.1k

07:30 AU Unemployment Rate Dec 5.7% 5.7%

07:30 AU Full Time Employment Dec N/A 39.3k

07:30 AU Participation Rate Dec 64.6% 64.6%

15:30 HK Unemployment Rate Dec N/A 3.3%

20:30 US Housing Starts Number MM Dec 1.176m 1.090m

20:30 US Housing Starts MM: Change Dec 10.1% -18.7%

20:30 US Building Permits: Number Dec 1.220m 1.212m

20:30 US Building Permits: Change MM Dec N/A -3.8%

20:30 US Philly Fed Business Indx Jan 16.0 21.5

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 252k 247k

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e N/A 256.5k

20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e N/A 2.087m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e N/A 4.097m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e N/A 8.356m

23:00 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e N/A 5.023m

Fri/20-Jan-2017 06:00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Jan N/A 16

08:00 US Fed's Yellen Speaks at Stanford

N/A CN Urban Investment (ytd) YY Dec 8.3% 8.3%

N/A CN GDP YY Q4 6.7% 6.7%

N/A CN GDP QQ SA Q4 1.7% 1.8%

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Selasa 17 Januari 2017

Page 3 of 6

N/A CN Industrial Production YY Dec 6.1% 6.2%

N/A CN Retail Sales YY Dec 10.7% 10.8%

10:40 JP BOJ's Nakaso Speech

21:00 US Fed's Harker Speaks in New Jersey on Economic Outlook

Sat/21-Jan-2017 01:00 US Baker Hughes U.S. Rotary Oil Rigs 20-Jan

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Selasa 17 Januari 2017

Page 4 of 6

SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017

Koreksi berkembang hadapi

area support di 18925

Area support berikutnya di

18200

Sedangkan area resistance

krusial di 19695

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

16 Jan SSIpmH7 19040 19105 19030 75 19065 --- 5 0.03 10538

16 Jan SSIamH7 19230 19235 19035 200 19060 19060 205 1.06 47440

13 Jan SSIpmH7 19265 19365 19190 175 19280 --- 15 0.08 20424

13 Jan SSIamH7 19240 19300 19135 165 19265 19265 145 0.76 46229

12 Jan SSIpmH7 19085 19175 18945 230 19160 --- 40 0.21 31205

12 Jan SSIamH7 19330 19330 19050 280 19120 19120 245 1.27 82359

11 Jan SSIpmH7 19360 19500 19120 380 19330 --- 35 0.18 29991

11 Jan SSIamH7 19355 19390 19310 80 19365 19365 55 0.28 37907

10 Jan SSIpmH7 19335 19415 19290 125 19325 --- 15 0.08 20031

10 Jan SSIamH7 19415 19480 19240 240 19310 19310 370 1.88 62888

WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

19235 19030 19695 18945 19615 18225 19695 18945

(16/Jan) (16/Jan) (09/Jan) (12/Jan) (20/Dec) (05/Dec) (09/Jan) (12/Jan)

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

19695 Peak level (1-H chart)

19500 Reaction high (1-H chart)

19365 Reaction high (1-H chart)

19280 Reaction high (1-H chart)

18925 Low 30/Dec/2016

18640 Low 09/Dec/2016

18490 Low 08/Dec/2016

18225 Low 05/Dec/2016

BUY ----

SELL 19135

STOP LOSS 19300

19000

TARGET

18870

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Selasa 17 Januari 2017

Page 5 of 6

KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017

Koreksi tertahan di area

support 266.35

Short-term support di 264.15

Area resistance di 269.90

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE

%

CHANGE

VOLUME

16 Jan 268.35 269.15 266.35 2.80 267.40 267.40 1.25 0.47 135817

13 Jan 268.85 269.30 268.55 0.75 268.65 268.65 0.20 0.07 69894

12 Jan 268.85 269.90 268.65 1.25 268.85 268.85 0.20 0.07 155730

11 Jan 264.20 269.60 264.15 5.45 269.05 269.05 5.05 1.91 193691

10 Jan 263.20 264.30 263.20 1.10 264.00 264.00 0.05 0.02 86405

09 Jan 263.95 264.65 263.70 0.95 264.05 264.05 0.40 0.15 83543

WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

269.15 266.35 269.90 259.25 260.95 251.45 269.90 259.25

(16/Jan) (16/Jan) (12/Jan) (02/Jan) (21/Dec) (05/Dec) (12/Jan) (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

272.35 High 28/Apr/2015

270.95 High 29/Apr/2015

269.90 High 12/Jan/2017

269.15 High 16/Jan/2017

266.35 Pivot line

264.15 Low 11/Jan/2017

262.30 Low 05/Jan/2017

261.35 Low 03/Jan/2017

BUY ----

SELL 268.30

STOP LOSS 269.30

TARGET

266.40

264.60

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf


ASIA STOCK INDEX

Fundamental & Technical Outlook

Selasa 17 Januari 2017

Page 6 of 6

HSIF7 (Hang Seng Jan Futures) – Exp. Date: 26 January 2017

Koreksi hadapi area support

di 22650

Short-term support di 22464

Short-term resistance di

23012

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE

%

CHANGE

VOLUME

16 Jan 22875 22912 22671 241 22764 22764 205 0.89 81760

13 Jan 22929 22998 22887 111 22969 22969 87 0.38 72112

12 Jan 22971 23012 22786 226 22882 22882 92 0.40 91658

11 Jan 22793 22978 22779 199 22974 22974 235 1.03 89664

10 Jan 22538 22744 22517 227 22739 22739 166 0.74 82677

09 Jan 22595 22637 22471 166 22573 22573 42 0.19 80466

06 Jan 22540 22625 22464 161 22531 22531 53 0.24 76530

WEEKLY JANUARY 2017 DECEMBER 2016 2017

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

22912 22671 23012 21863 23146 21477 23012 21863

(16/Jan) (16/Jan) (12/Jan) (03/Jan) (08/Dec) (23/Dec) (12/Jan) (03/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23389 High 27/Oct/2016

23286 High 01/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

23146 High 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction high)

23012 High 12/Jan/2017

22650 Pivot line (4-H chart)

22464 Reaction low (4-H chart)

22200 Pivot line (4-H chart)

22058 Reaction low (4-H chart)

BUY ----

SELL 22900

STOP LOSS 23025

TARGET

22700

22600

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2

Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

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