WINFO Issue #23

WINFOFeb. 10 - 16, 2017
Football Rolls On (Euro-Style)
COLLEGE
HOOPS
NHL ACTION
MASTERS
ODDS
Issue #23
+
NOTHING BUT NET
- NBA TAKES OFF

IN THE ISSUE
IN THE ISSUE
4
3 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly
4-5 Greg Dempson
6-7 Wine and Whining
8-9 Tee Time
10 5 Tips for Better Meetings
11-12 NHL Analysis and Picks
13 Futures Foray
14 Handicapping Talk
14
6
8
2

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
THE GOOD, THE
BAD, THE UGLY
The haze hangs low as I
pour another splash of my
treasured Northern Harvest
Rye Crown Royal (this
2016 World Whisky of the Year
is proudly Canadian made in
Gimli Manitoba and was given
to me by a close family member
who grew up a few miles from
the Crown Royal distillery).
I only drink it in my more reflective
moments and this Sunday
night, with Super Bowl LI a few
hours in the rearview mirror – I’m
feeling plenty reflective. As in
what the hell just happened type
of reflective.
The Patriots have now lost the
last four Super Bowls they’ve
played in; we’ve bet against
them each time, yet here we
are with a 2-2 record, the same
2-2 record they have on those
games. I’m having difficulty
squaring that circle.
Sure the Seattle Super Bowl loss was
tough to swallow, when Wilson threw
that interception from the one-yard
line. But that was junior high level
incredulity compared to the stun-gun
that hit last weekend. Credit to the
Pats for making the plays, but dear
god the confluence of factors and
questionable decisions that came together
to allow that comeback to happen
could be a plotline from Stranger
Things (I should note I’ve actually
never seen an episode of Netflix’s
Stranger Things, but from what I’ve
heard that analogy should work).
Alright, enough whining.
With the NFL in the books, starting
this week you’ll now find Premier
WINFO
+
Football Rolls On (Euro-Style)
League Soccer plays, some hoops
content, a dash of golf and NHL.
We’re already gearing up for March
Madness, one of our favorite times of
the year.
Let’s have a quick look at The Good,
the Bad and the Ugly from last week.
The Good
Feb. 10 - 16, 2017
Issue #23
COLLEGE
HOOPS
NHL ACTION
MASTERS
ODDS
NOTHING BUT NET
- NBA TAKES OFF
A lot of good to go around in that
Super Bowl issue, despite the above.
Pretty much the entire crew cashed
when White ran in that OT touchdown.
Neil hit his play on the Patriots with that
score, taking his NFL season record to
18-15 with his 33 picks this season.
Jarvis had a great day – cashing his
Over play and his First quarter play
on the Under. He finished the
season with a 9-5 ATS mark.
One of our new columnists,
Mike Quinn, also hit with his
play on New England.
Despite dropping the game
play on Atlanta, we went 3-1
on our other Super Bowl plays,
so it was a winning day overall.
We finished the playoffs with a
record of 9-2 ATS on the games
and 12-3 overall when you
include all playoff picks.
The Mediocre
Greg actually had a very good
Super Bowl weekend, but that
doesn’t mean anything for those
who followed his 1st half play
on the Patriots in his column.
He had a handful of plays he
was looking at for the game and
we debated what to include in
the column – as of deadline,
it was a toss-up between the
Patriots full-game, or the 1st half play.
We chose the first half play as Neil
and Mike Quinn had already sent in
their picks on New England – wrong
choice, as that one lost...lost big actually.
Real big. Stupendously big. Sorry
Greg, just felt the need to editorialize
a bit.
The Bad
The NHL hit the skids hard last week,
losing three units. That wipes out the
three units we won last week...one
step forward, one step....you get it.
We’re still above water for the season,
but not by much, sitting at plus
3.45 units.
Have a great week.
3

GREG DEMPSON
WIZARDS VS.
PACERS NBA PLAY
by Greg Dempson
Indiana Pacers at Washington
Wizards
These two teams have split their
games with each team holding serve
on their home court. As a four-point
favorite, Washington won, while the
Pacers as 5-point home favorites
won straight up but lost ATS (107–
105.) The Pacers are 29–23 straight
up on the season but only 9–16
when away from home, straight up
and ATS.
Washington is 31–21 straight up on
the season including 22–7 straight
up as a host and 19–10 ATS at
home. The Wizards have been
superb since January 6th, winning
15 out of 18 games straight up while
going 13–5 ATS.
When playing at home during that
time frame, Washington is 8–1 ATS
as a home favorite and 7–0 ATS
when laying less than 11 points.
From Beyond the Arc
• The two teams are tied for 6th in the
NBA with each team shooting the 3
at 36.9%.
• Washington is 19th in rebounding at
43.2 while Indiana is 27th at 41.5.
• The Pacers make 81.3% of their
free throws while the Wizards make
78.6%.
• Indiana is 6–14 ATS after having
won two of their last three games
this season.
• Washington is 16–7 ATS as a home
favorite this season.
• The Pacers are on a 3–15 ATS run
after scoring 110 or more points.
• The Wizards are 20–11 ATS when
the total is greater than or equal to
210 points this season.
• Indiana is 6–21 ATS this season
when they allow 105 or more points
in a game while the Wizards are
averaging 110.2 PPG at home.
4

GREG DEMPSON
WHEN PLAYING AT HOME
DURING THAT TIME FRAME,
WASHINGTON IS 8–1 ATS AS
A HOME FAVORITE AND 7–0
ATS WHEN LAYING LESS
THAN 11 POINTS.
All Systems Go
• Play against all teams that allow
103+ points per game on the
season when playing against a
foe that’s allowed 110 or more in
back-to-back games. This system
is 111–71 = 61% ATS the past five
seasons.
• After going over the total by more
than 24 points in their previous
game play against road teams
when playing against an opponent
that’s sailed over the total by 42 or
more combined points in their last
five games. This system is 46–26 =
64% ATS the past five seasons.
NBA Play
Here is my first NBA offering for
the NFL and College post season,
tonight I am backing the Washington
Wizards at – 5 points tonight in their
game vs. Pacers.
Good luck with the Wizards and
here’s hoping the Pacers run into a
“Wall!”
College Hoops for Saturday
William and Mary are off a poor performance
at Drexel in which they lost
79-61. The Tribe are averaging 81.6
PPG as well as 92 PPG in their last
five, (not counting Thursday’s performance.)
William and Mary is also
scoring 82.2 in Conference play.
They host College of Charleston on
Saturday and if the total is around
145 the Over is worth a look.
Winfo Record in Review
Football concluded at 7–7 ATS, a
very vanilla season for me.
On to the hoops season.
5

WINE AND WHINING
WINE &WHINING
by Neil Alexander
I
definitely have mixed feelings about Super
Bowl LI. Many pundits are calling it the
best game of all time. And others have
exhausted their arsenal of superlatives when
describing Brady, the Hoody and the Pats in
general. With the score at 28-3, my favorite
part of the game was the half time show. Best
game ever? I took the dog for a nice, long
walk during the contest. I think you have my
answer. Best comeback ever on a big stage?
Possibly. I’m not going to get into any postgame
armchair analysis. It never felt that I
was on the right side in this one, but I cashed
my ticket, and at the end of the day, that’s all
that counts. I finish the NFL season at 18-15,
nothing to write home about but a success
rate that makes me a small season winner.
And with the NFL in the rearview mirror, I
turn my attention to football on the other side
of the pond. As I referenced in a previous
article, I’ve been following, handicapping, and
wagering on soccer for years.
6

WINE AND WHINING
HOW MUCH
GOOD WILL
DOES AN EPL
TITLE BUY
YOU? WHAT
HAVE YOU
DONE FOR
US LATELY,
RANIERI?
Here are my thoughts on this week’s action:
EPL Picks – Game week 25
Arsenal v Hull City
Let’s take a look at the first match of the
game week. Nobody thought that Hull had
a hope last week at home to Liverpool. In
hindsight, given the Reds poor form, it is
really not that shocking.
My initial thought with this match was why
not Hull? But upon sober second thought,
I can’t back them. In 12 road games, the
Tigers have amassed a single win and two
draws, with a goal differential of -20. They
have also failed to win in their last 11 away
matches. That said, given their recent form,
backing Arsenal at -350 isn’t something that
I feel great about either.
There is no shame losing to Chelsea, but
mailing in that performance was rather
shameful. The natives are restless at the
Emirates, and I think that the Gunners take
it out on the Tigers who are no doubt feeling
pretty good about themselves after their big
win last week.
It’s not a bet that I often make, but I’m backing
Arsenal at the half and at full time -125.
Middlesbrough v Everton
Everton is in fine form, undefeated in their
past seven matches overall and their past
four away matches. Middlesbrough is not.
In fact, their last win came in mid-December,
about the same time as Everton’s last
defeat. Boro is fighting for their lives, as they
are currently only one point above the drop
zone. Everton is finding the back of the net
with alacrity, scoring 19 goals in their past
seven games. It seems a cheap price.
Take the Toffees to win at +110.
Swansea v Leicester
Speaking of the drop zone and relegation,
I present to you last season’s EPL champions
Leicester City. There is rumor of a
player revolt, where the Foxes players have
solicited the team chairman to sack Ranieri.
What have you done for me lately? Leicester
have lost 75% of their away matches this
season, and have failed to win in their past
12 away matches. What is the best way to
get rid of your manager? Stop trying. How
much good will does an EPL title buy you?
Not only have Leicester not won this calendar
year, they have yet to score!
Swansea are even with Leicester on points
in the table, but are clearly in better form,
with three wins in their past five. This is
more a bet against Leicester.
I’m backing Swansea at +150.
There you have it. Two dogs and a heavy
favorite. Good luck and enjoy the games.
The Wine
Norton Privada 2013, Mendoza Red
This wine comes from the high-altitude
Mendoza region of Argentina
and is a blend of Malbec
(40%), Cabernet Sauvignon
(30%), and Merlot (30%).
The nose offers concentrated
aromas of lush berry fruit
(blackberry, black cherry)
and plum. It is full bodied with
additional notes of coffee,
smoke and spice imparted
from the French oak
barrels. It offers bright
acidity and medium
tannins. It is a powerful
wine that is well balanced,
which is saying
something with alcohol
by volume of 15%, with
a long finish. Think red
meat and game.
Privada refers to
the Norton family’s
private reserve.
7

TEE TIME
MASTERS’ ODDS –
SPIETH TOPS THE LIST OF FAVORITES
The NFL season is done, in dramatic fashion we might add – it’s always right about now every year that we
start to pay real attention to what’s happening in the golf world.
A favorite event, obviously, is the Masters. This year it tees off April 6 in Augusta as always, with Jordan
Spieth currently the favorite to don a green jacket at 8-1, according to the golf odds guru Jeff Sherman, of
the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (and Tiger is set at 50-1 in case you wondering)
Here’s a look at all Jeff’s odds for the first Major of the season.
The Masters
Augusta National Golf Club -
Augusta, Georgia
April 6 - 9, 2017
ODDS to Win:
Jordan Spieth 8/1
Jason Day 10/1
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Dustin Johnson 12/1
Bubba Watson 20/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Justin Rose 15/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Hideki Matsuyama 10/1
Branden Grace 50/1
Brooks Koepka 40/1
Danny Willett 80/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Sergio Garcia 40/1
Zach Johnson 60/1
Tiger Woods 50/1
Charl Schwartzel 60/1
Paul Casey 50/1
Matt Kuchar 50/1
Jim Furyk 100/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Bryson DeChambeau 125/1
Jon Rahm 40/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
J.B. Holmes 100/1
Justin Thomas 25/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 60/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Martin Kaymer 100/1
Bill Haas 125/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Emiliano Grillo 100/1
Marc Leishman 125/1
Byeong Hun An 125/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Tony Finau 125/1
Ian Poulter 150/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1
Kevin Chappell 125/1
Jason Dufner 125/1
Steve Stricker 200/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Russell Knox 100/1
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Scott Piercy 125/1
Kevin Na 150/1
Gary Woodland 80/1
Kevin Kisner 125/1
Andy Sullivan 125/1
Tyrrell Hatton 100/1
Francesco Molinari 200/1
Billy Horschel 150/1
Ryan Palmer 200/1
Chris Wood 250/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Harris English 200/1
Keegan Bradley 200/1
Luke Donald 200/1
Smylie Kaufman 100/1
Patrick Rodgers 250/1
David Lingmerth 250/1
Jhonattan Vegas 250/1
Webb Simpson 150/1
Brendan Steele 125/1
Chris Kirk 200/1
Patton Kizzire 250/1
Graeme McDowell 250/1
William McGirt 200/1
Nick Watney 250/1
Thomas Pieters 80/1
Bernd Wiesberger 200/1
Alex Noren 100/1
Victor Dubuisson 200/1
Jamie Donaldson 300/1
8

TEE TIME
Daniel Summerhays 300/1
Robert Streb 300/1
Ernie Els 250/1
Aaron Wise 250/1
Andrew Johnston 200/1
Fred Couples 250/1
Russell Henley 250/1
Kevin Streelman 200/1
Soren Kjeldsen 250/1
Aaron Baddeley 300/1
Graham DeLaet 300/1
Charles Howell III 250/1
Anirban Lahiri 250/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 300/1
John Senden 300/1
Hunter Mahan 300/1
Colt Knost 500/1
Jamie Lovemark 300/1
Joost Luiten 300/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 300/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 300/1
Padraig Harrington 300/1
Ollie Schniederjans 500/1
Paul Dunne 500/1
Thongchai Jaidee 300/1
Bernhard Langer 300/1
Kyung-Tae Kim 500/1
Jeunghun Wang 200/1
Younghan Song 500/1
Matt Jones 500/1
Cameron Smith 150/1
James Hahn 300/1
Scott Hend 300/1
Rikard Karlberg 500/1
Jaco Van Zyl 500/1
Harold Varner III 300/1
Billy Hurley III 500/1
Brian Stuard 500/1
Vijay Singh 500/1
Hideto Tanihara 500/1
Yuta Ikeda 300/1
Scott Gregory 500/1
Trevor Immelman 1000/1
Mike Weir 1000/1
Mark O’Meara 2000/1
Sandy Lyle 5000/1
Larry Mize 5000/1
Brad Dalke 1000/1
Curtis Luck 500/1
Si Woo Kim 150/1
Sean O’Hair 250/1
Roberto Castro 300/1
Stewart Hagestad 2000/1
Rod Pampling 500/1
Pat Perez 300/1
Mackenzie Hughes 300/1
Toto Gana 1000/1
Hudson Swafford 250/1
(current as of 2/6/2017)
Odds provided by Jeff Sherman oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas
SuperBook and one of the world’s foremost authorities on golf odds. Stop by
to check out Jeff’s Twitter feed at twitter.com/golfodds and his website at
www.golfodds.com
9

VANCOUVER THEATRESPORTS
"Sponsored Content"
5 TIPS FOR BETTER MEETINGS
techniques, such as appropriate eye
contact and using affirmatives and
nodding, which encourages speakers
to continue and forces listeners to be
fully present in the conversation.
Meetings can be a drag – but they
don’t have to be.
For a lot of us, meetings are a part of
everyday life. The Improv for Business division
at Vancouver TheatreSports have
been helping organizations of all sizes to
transform meetings into super-charged
brainstorming sessions, increasing the
return on the time invested.
They do so through their unique improv-based
approach – an approach
they’ve pioneered and perfected over
the two decades they’ve been working
with organizations across Canada.
Here are 5 quick tips from Ken Lawson,
the lead facilitator for the Improv
for Business Division at Vancouver
TheatreSports, that you can apply to
jump-start creativity and collaboration
in your next meeting.
Tip #1 “Yes, And”
The foundation for a creative and
collaborative meeting is trust; each
attendee should know that they
can contribute ideas freely, without
judgment or obstacles being placed
in their way by colleagues. As a team,
committing to the principle of “Yes,
And”, the core tenet that improvisation
is based on, produces an environment
where all ideas are accepted, supported
and given a chance.
Tip #2 Active Listening
Try this at the start of your next strategy
meeting. It’s an activity we call “Listen
Better, Listen Worse”, highlighting
the importance of being engaged
when listening to other speak.
To facilitate the exercise, start by
having one person speak to the
group on a tic their passionate about
(the Canucks, running, travel, etc.).
Instruct the group who are listening to
really engage, listening intently. After
a minute or so, instruct the group to
“listen worse,” or disengage. They
can change to more passive body
language, start checking their phones,
looking around the room, shuffling
their feet or walking away. Ask the
speaker how they felt when the group
was engaged, and how they felt when
the group disengaged.
The listeners then learn active listening
Tip #3 Get Rid of the Gadgets
Pretty straight forward. The Improv
Mindset is all about being fully present.
A group of meeting attendees all checking
their phones at various times blocks
that. Leave the phones at your desk.
Tip #4 Take a Breather
Effective two-way communication during
a meeting requires moments of silence.
Pause for a second before you reply to
a question. It allows you to absorb what
was said (active listening) and to organize
your thoughts, resulting in clearer and
more confident responses.
Tip #5 It’s About The Team
Great improv is about teamwork and
making your fellow cast mates look
good. Meetings can be so much more
effective when attendees aren’t overly
protective of their own ideas. The
Improv Mindset is about being open
to change and allowing your ideas to
evolve based on the contributions of
others. Clinging to your own contribution
prevents you from recognizing
other ideas from the group that might
better solve the problem.
If everyone focuses on the “glory of
the group”, understanding it’s not
about having the best idea, but about
collaborating to discover the best idea
and solutions.
Learn more about The Improv Mindset
and how Vancouver TheatreSports
can help your organization with our
Improv for Business workshops.
If you’re interested in receiving an
information pack please email Jeff at
development@vtsl.com.
10

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS
BRUINS BEST HABS IN
ORIGINAL SIX BATTLE
So much for hitting double digits
with our net units. We headed
into last week’s NHL action
happily sitting with +7.45 units on the
season. There was talk, sometimes
brazen and sometimes whispered,
about climbing above 10 units of
profit for this page after the smoke
cleared on the weekly selections...
um...not so much.
We went the other way fast, dripping
three units and landing with a thud
in the 3.5 range. So the climb begins
again. We’re still on the right side of the
ledger, but it’s not looking as pretty.
Good luck this week!
Saturday, February 11th
Anaheim at Washington
After losing three in a row to start this
current road trip, the Ducks picked up
a win over the Sabres in their Thursday
night start. Now they head to the
US Capital for a date with the one of
the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
Tough task – this Caps team
just keeps on winning.
Coach Randy Carlyle, sick of watching
his team sputter offensively, mixed
up the lines for the Buffalo win. They
managed to put a few pucks in the
net, but since the results were vs. a
bottom-feeder, it remains to be seen if
they can continue to create a spark.
On paper, this is a decent matchup
for the Ducks. Washington can dictate
matchups on home ice, but keeping
their top line away from either Kesler
or Getzlaf is not really an option. The
Ducks should have some success
controlling the Ovechkin line.
With the line we’ll be getting on a road
underdog who does matchup nicely
with the high-flying home team, we’re
taking a shot.
Play on Anaheim
Chicago at Edmonton
The Blackhawks aren’t slicing their
way through the regular season, as
they have at times in past years, but
the perennial contenders are putting
together a solid campaign. There’s
nothing flashy about their numbers
(their goals for average is middle of
the pack and their goals against is
slightly better than middle of the pack)
and they have struggled this season
at times with the man advantage,
including a recent stretch that saw
them fail to score on the PP in seven
of eight games.
For the Oilers, as goes that top line,
so go the Oilers, for the most part.
That top line is special, as evidenced
by simply watching them and also by
looking at some advanced stats, like
their 55% shot attempts during their
time on ice and their expected goalsfor
percentage at close to 60%.
The Hawks top four D-men aren’t
particularly vulnerable in transition, but
THE HAWKS TOP FOUR D-MEN AREN’T
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE IN TRANSITION,
BUT IF THEY DON’T LOOK AFTER GAPS
MCDAVID WILL CREATE SCORING CHANCES
IN THE BLINK OF AN EYE.
11

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS
The Bruins’ fans will be
revved up when they
face bitter rival Montreal
this Sunday.
if they don’t look after gaps McDavid
will create scoring chances in the blink
of an eye.
We do like the Oilers in this spot, as
a small home favorite. This young
lineup that loves to skate will face a
Chicago team that played last night
and is playing their third game in four
nights. Edmonton should be able to
take advantage.
Take Edmonton
Sunday, February 12th
Vancouver at Buffalo
Whatever the opposite of a road warrior
is, that’s the Canucks this season.
But they did look good vs. Columbus
on Thursday night, with Miller sparkling
in goal and Granlund looking
great up with the Sedins. If they’re
going to scrape together any points
away from home this is the exact type
of matchup they need to take advantage
of. Buffalo has some talent, but
this is a young, inconsistent team that
often struggles in each zone. They
don’t have a lineup that can create a
lot of stress for this Canuck D, so if
Vancouver can take advantage of a
couple of the quality scoring chances
they’re going to get, this should be a
road win.
We’ll play the Canucks.
Montreal at Boston
During these recent struggles, the
Canadiens defense has often let them
down, getting caught in transition and
leaving space all over. Now if they
could rely on a balanced offense
to bail them out, the issues on the
backend wouldn’t be so detrimental.
But creating offense is also a concern.
The over reliance on Alexander
Radulov and Max Pacioretty the last
while isn’t healthy or sustainable.
The Bruins are also scuffling along
(resulting in a big coaching change),
but this battle is a decent one for
them when you look at how the line
matchups will likely play out. Boston
has some offensive pop that the Canadiens
just don’t currently enjoy.
Montreal is playing their 7th game in
the last 11 days and third in their last
four. Boston are also in a three-in-four
spot, but the Habs were out West
for a 2-game set, playing in Arizona
Thursday night, then back for a Saturday
nighter at home and now hopping
over to Boston for a Sunday tilt.
We give the edge to the home team.
Take the Bruins
Last Week’s Record: -3.0 Units
Season Record: +3.45 Units
12

FUTURES FORAY
SUPER BOWL FUTURES
Super Bowl LII
It’s never too early to start planning
for next season; at least that’s what
Belichick is telling us. “No days off!”
Let’s take a look at the opportunities
for next year before putting the NFL
to bed for a while. At this time of year,
the odds can be dramatically different
depending on your book, so be sure
to shop around to get the best price.
Here are the top five favorites:
Patriots 7-1 Falcons 13-1
Cowboys 13-1 Packers 13-1
Seahawks 16-1
Pats – Of course the Pats can win
again next year, but there is too much
uncertainty with their roster at this
time. Some of their free agents include
Branch, Ryan, Bennett, Hightower,
and Butler. They have $65 million in
cap space so they’ll be fine. Not good
enough though at 7-1.
Falcons – Super Bowl hangover
anyone? How were the Panthers this
year after losing to the Broncos in Super
Bowl 50? The Seahawks are still
referencing their loss from two years
ago. It’s a tough hill to climb, particularly
with new offensive and defensive
coordinators next year. Next.
Cowboys – They had a dream run
this season with rookies Prescott and
Elliott leading the charge. Our guess
is that their opponents are already
game planning to stop them next season.
And their opponents are not to
be trifled with. They have six divisional
games against the Giants, Eagles,
and Washington professional football
team. They then face the AFC and
NFC West Conferences, which mean
road games in Arizona, Denver and
Oakland, and at home against Seattle
and KC. Their two final games based
on their record – Atlanta and Green
Bay. We’ll pass.
Packers – They have Aaron freaking
Rodgers so anything is possible.
Based on their deep run last season
it’s clear they are close, but they
need a few more pieces. Additionally,
there aren’t many gimmes on their
schedule next year as they face the
AFC North and NFC South. Step
right up Steelers, Falcons, Seahawks
and Cowboys, the latter two based
on their record from last year. We
would begrudge you from backing
them, but maybe there is more value
elsewhere?
Seahawks – The one thing in Seattle’s
corner is continuity as Petey
Sunshine and GM John Schneider
have been together for eight years.
The rest of their division is in relative
disarray with the 49ers recent hiring of
a new GM and coach, the Rams new
coach, and the Cardinals who may
be approaching rebuilding mode with
a non-committal quarterback for next
season. The Hawks need to sign Kam
Chancellor and Jimmy Graham in the
off-season and draft or sign some
offensive lineman. They face the
NFC East and AFC South, along with
Atlanta and Green Bay. At 16-1 this
is our recommendation.
That said, it’s February and there’s
still much to unfold, including the
combine, draft, free-agent signings
and potential injuries. We wouldn’t
begrudge you choosing elsewhere or
having a look at some other options
including the Broncos, Steelers, Raiders,
or Chiefs.
Will Brady and the Pats advance
to another Super Bowl?
IT’S NEVER TOO EARLY
TO START PLANNING
FOR NEXT SEASON,
“NO DAYS OFF!”
13

HANDICAPPING ADVICE
3 COMMON NHL BETTING
MISTAKES TO AVOID
By Brad Elliott
When Teen Talk Barbie infamously
said “Math class is tough”,
she obviously hadn’t tried being
a long-term winner betting the NHL.
Whether it’s Gary Bettman’s unrelenting
quest for parity, the volume of
games, the omnipresent juice or a
hundred of other variables you have to
deal with – getting the best of the NHL
can be an uphill battle. A fun one, but
a battle nonetheless.
If you’re new to betting on hockey,
whether you play your provincial
sports lottery or somewhere else, here
are a few lessons I learned the hard
way that you’ll want to keep in mind.
Common NHL
Betting Mistakes
1) Playing Big Favorites
I’ll set the scene – a Las Vegas strip
sports book (Caesar’s Palace to be
specific) and a cocky Canadian kid
on his first trip to Sin City who couldn’t
wait to hammer the books with his
NHL insights and knowledge.
Fast forward 96 hours to said kid
boarding a plane back to Canada with
a lot less swagger. Vegas 1 – Brad 0.
Here are the broad strokes: I played 13
hockey games in total, winning 9 and
losing 4. Pretty sweet winning percentage...before
you factor in the “juice”.
Two games in particular wiped out any
chance I had of booking a nice profit.
Both looked like sure things and as is
the case with virtually all “sure things”,
both were big favorites (over -200).
Losing those two plays meant I had to
win four games just to get back to even.
After the smoke cleared, I had made the
slimmest of profits, but the lesson was
stark – steer clear of big favs. Sooner or
later they’ll break your heart.
2) Playing a Lot of Games
See above. I played 13 games over
three nights. There’s no way I had a
strong opinion on 13 of the 24 hockey
games played over those days. There
were a lot of “leans” and “I likes” sprinkled
across my betting slips.
It took me at least four years before I
really got a handle on this one. Less is
more when it comes to betting the NHL.
Nowadays, I only play on games that
I have a strong opinion, based on my
research and handicapping.
3) Going with your Gut
Don’t let a liberal dose of “gut-feel” be
your guide when betting on the NHL.
One of those big losses I highlighted in
my first trip to Vegas was on the Red
Wings. This was a Detroit team playing
the second game of back-to-back
Las Vegas 1 - Brad 0
nights, their third game in four nights
(and fifth in nine days) with travel back
from the West Coast. And here I am
laying -210 without having checked
their schedule. Crazy.
Before clicking submit on that betting
ticket, be sure you’ve done some
research (schedule, recent form, past
history, starting goalies, etc.)
***
Now this still needs to be fun. And
fun means being a little spontaneous,
fun means putting a few bucks on
the home team even if you don’t love
the matchup, fun means adding extra
games to your ticket because you wanted
more action on a Saturday night – I
get all that. And by all means have at it.
But do keep the above in mind as you
go about wagering on the NHL.
Brad Elliott has been wagering on the NHL
for over 20 years. He was a key contributor to
the very popular (and profitable) weekly NHL
Analysis in the Winner’s Edge magazine.
14