Mediterranean

Freight
3.3 Forecast of the overall transport demand
In order to assess the potential future traffic on Corridor rail infrastructure, in particular
for cross-border sections, an assessment of the potential rail freight matrices at 2030 has
been performed, considering Corridor implementation.
This assessment takes into account:
• The traffic growth derived from the analysis of the international flows on Corridor
market area;
• The traffic generated by the ports, according to the consortium’s forecasts;
• The traffic growth of national traffic on Corridor sections, estimated with a
simplified assumption linking traffic growth and GdP.
The result of this assessment is shown on the map below:
Figure 8 – Potential rail traffic on cross-border sections of the Corridor in 2030
According to the Study the total demand in the market area of the Corridor would
increase from 151 million tons in 2010 to 267 million tons in 2030, with an average
annual growth rate of 2.9%.
With the full implementation of the Corridor, the rail market share could potentially
increase up to 27%, reaching about 72 million tons a year.
The table below summarizes the forecasting results for the Corridor's market area:
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