Views
1 year ago

PEACE

axuM308ZbrP

Latin America South

Latin America South America and the Central America and the Caribbean regions together account for ten per cent of the total global economic impact. The total economic impact of violence in Central America and the Caribbean decreased eight per cent from 2013 to 2015. However, the economic impact of violence is still 75 per cent higher than its 2007 level. South America has seen large increases in the cost of violence since 2007, although the total fell eight per cent in the last year. These two regions have similar trends and cost profiles, so they are grouped together here as Latin America and discussed as a whole. Homicide accounted for 47 per cent of the total impact of violence in Latin America. The high levels of violence in Latin America are primarily driven by organized crime activities, including drug trafficking organisations. El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala and Jamaica are all ranked in the worst ten globally in terms of homicide rates. The average per capita cost of homicide is equivalent to $1,133 PPP in Central America and the Caribbean. Figure 7 shows the composition of the cost of violence in Latin America. FIGURE 7 THE COMPOSITION OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VIOLENCE IN LATIN AMERICA The economic impact of homicide in Latin America is greater than internal security and military spending combined. Homicides Internal security Military expenditure Sexual and violent assault Private security Conflict Other Higher levels of homicide and violent crime have led to a higher proportion of people fearing that they will be victims of crime. On average, more than half of the people in South America (55 per cent) and approximately half in Central America and the Caribbean (49 per cent) report fearing violence, the highest rate in the world. Figure 8 illustrates that as the level of peacefulness deteriorates in Latin America, fear of victimisation typically increases. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% PERCENTAGE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VIOLENCE Source: IEP FIGURE 8 LEVEL OF PEACEFULNESS VS FEAR OF VICTIMISATION IN LATIN AMERICA, 2015 Countries with lower levels of peacefulness experience higher levels of fear, especially in South America and Central America and the Caribbean. % OF POPULATION REPORTING FEAR OF CRIME 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% r=0.45 Chile Uruguay Costa Rica Panama Paraguay Peru Argentina Nicaragua Bolivia Brazil Dominican Republic Haiti Guyana Ecuador Cuba Trinidad and Tobago Jamaica El Salvador Honduras Guatemala Mexico Venezuela Colombia 1.50 1.70 1.90 2.10 2.30 2.50 2.70 2.90 More peaceful GLOBAL PEACE INDEX OVERALL SCORE, 2016 Less peaceful Source: Gallup, IEP THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PEACE 2016 | Results & Trends 16

Middle East and North Africa The economic impact of violence in the MENA region increased by 21 per cent between 2007 and 2014, before falling slightly from 2014 to 2015. Ongoing conflict in Syria, high levels of terrorism, and economic contraction caused by conflict and instability have driven this increase in the impact. Military spending accounts for approximately half (49.1 per cent) of the economic impact of violence in the region. Internal security spending and the cost of conflict account for 23 and 14 per cent of the economic impact of violence respectively. Seven countries in the region were involved in active conflicts during 2015. The economic impact of violence in Syria has increased by 300 per cent since 2007. This increase was driven by the devastation arising from the civil war: deaths from conflict, population displacement and GDP losses. The Syrian war has cost the country approximately $84 billion PPP when compared to a non-conflict scenario. 18 However, this is a highly conservative estimate, as the lack of accurate economic data on Syria since the start of the war makes accounting for the full cost of the war extremely difficult. PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM 2007 TO 2015 FIGURE 9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF VIOLENCE, 2007 TO 2015 In addition to Syria and Iraq, Libya and Egypt also experienced an increase in the economic impact of violence. 300% 250% 200% 100% Source: IEP 150% 50% 0% Syria Iraq Libya Egypt Other countries in the region have also suffered large economic losses due to conflict. Figure 9 shows the changes in the economic impact of violence in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Egypt between 2007 and 2015. The economic impact of violence increased by 77 and 74 per cent in Iraq and Libya respectively since 2007. In Iraq the economic impact of terrorism increased by 185 per cent between 2009 and 2015 mainly due to the rise of ISIL and the international community’s war against the group. Despite decreasing revenue from lower oil prices, Iraq increased its military expenditure by 14 per cent in 2015. “ The economic impact of violence in Syria has increased by 300 per cent since 2007. This increase was driven by the devastation arising from the civil war: deaths from conflict, population displacement and GDP losses. THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF PEACE 2016 | Results & Trends 17

PEACE
PEACE
PEACE