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DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

1 Great Britain

1 Great Britain young-people-referendum-turnout-brexit-twice-as-high (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 9 J Sloam, ‘The generation gap: how young voters view the UK’s referendum’, blog, EUROPP, 7 Apr 2016, http://blogs. lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/04/07/the-generation-gap-howyoung-voters-view-the-uks-referendum/ (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 10 Fieldhouse et al, ‘British Election Study Combined Wave 1–9 Internet Panel’. 11 Goodwin and Heath, ‘Brexit vote explained’. 12 D Runciman, ‘How the education gap is tearing politics apart’, Guardian, 5 Oct 2016, www.theguardian.com/ politics/2016/oct/05/trump-brexit-education-gap-tearingpolitics-apart (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 13 A Asthana, ‘People who felt marginalised drove Brexit vote, study finds: Joseph Rowntree Foundation research shows EU referendum was deeply divided on economic, educational and social lines’, Guardian, 31 Aug 2016, www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/31/people-whofelt-marginalised-drove-brexit-vote-study-finds (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 14 Ibid. 15 Fieldhouse et al, ‘British Election Study Combined Wave 1–9 Internet Panel’. 16 M Ashcroft, ‘How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday… and why’, Lord Ashcroft Polls, 24 Jun 2016, http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-unitedkingdom-voted-and-why/ (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 17 Z Darvas, ‘Brexit vote boosts case for inclusive growth’, blog, Bruegel, 13 Jul 2016, http://bruegel.

109 org/2016/07/brexit-vote-boosts-case-for-inclusive-growth/ (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 18 Ashcroft, ‘How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday… and why’. 19 Ibid. 20 J Dennison and N Carl, ‘The ultimate causes of Brexit: history, culture, and geography’, blog, EUROPP, 20 Jul 2016, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/07/24/ ultimate-causes-of-brexit/ (accessed 16 Jan 2017). 21 Ibid; A Mungiu-Pippidi, ‘European trust: the perfect storm’, Open Democracy, 15 Oct 2015, www.opendemocracy.net/ can-europe-make-it/alina-mungiu-pippidi/european-trustperfect-storm (accessed 17 Jan 2017). 22 B Stokes, ‘Euroskepticism beyond Brexit: significant opposition in key European countries to an ever closer EU’, Pew Research Center, 7 Jun 2016, www.pewglobal. org/2016/06/07/euroskepticism-beyond-brexit/ (accessed 17 Jan 2017). 23 S Katwala, J Rutter and S Ballinger, Disbanding the Tribes: What the referendum told us about Britain (and what it didn’t), British Future, Jul 2016, www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/ uploads/2016/08/Disbanding-the-tribes-report.27-July-2016. pdf (accessed 17 Jan 2017). 24 R Ormston, ‘Do we feel European and does it matter?’, National Centre for Social Research, Oct 2015, http:// whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ Analysis-paper-2-Do-we-feel-European.pdf (accessed 17 Jan 2017). 25 Inequality Briefing, ‘Briefing 61: regional inequality in the UK is the worst in Western Europe’, Eurostat, 26 Jun 2015, http://inequalitybriefing.org/brief/

  • Page 1:

    “ Mapping and responding to the r

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    First published in 2017 © Demos. S

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    Open access. Some rights reserved.

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    11 Foreword Nothing to Fear but Fea

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    13 FORES in Sweden, the Institute o

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    15 rising tide that cuts across tra

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    17 diversity), and political leader

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    19 trends in Austria, where the Fre

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    21 refugees of ‘bringing in all k

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    23 themselves embodying the fear of

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    25 ‘wrong-headed doctrine’, and

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    27 While the Central European case

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    29 Europe, but the politics of fear

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    31 of European identity - attachmen

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    33 Euroscepticism In every country,

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    35 Figure 2 Views of respondents in

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    37 Political trust We also asked ou

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    39 significantly less support in th

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    41 - internationally and intranatio

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    43 els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expendit

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    45 25 R Wodak and S Boukala, ‘Eur

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    47 References ‘Denmark suspends q

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    49 European Commission, Standard Eu

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    1 Great Britain - ‘It’s who you

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    53 1 What we already know about Bre

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    55 compared with 59 per cent of tho

  • Page 57 and 58: 57 This leads the authors to conclu
  • Page 59 and 60: 59 think it is vital to let Europea
  • Page 61 and 62: 61 between areas hit hardest by aus
  • Page 63 and 64: 63 wealthy towns in the south of En
  • Page 65 and 66: 65 Similarly strong predictive powe
  • Page 67 and 68: 67 Anti-immigrant sentiment In addi
  • Page 69 and 70: 69 External and campaign factors Th
  • Page 71 and 72: 71 One caveat of this research is t
  • Page 73 and 74: 73 vote (and indeed on populism in
  • Page 75 and 76: 75 As part of this project, we comm
  • Page 77 and 78: 77 Table 1 Predicted probability of
  • Page 79 and 80: 79 neighbourhood levels of deprivat
  • Page 81 and 82: 81 Social networks Most important f
  • Page 83 and 84: 83 Table 3 Predicted probability of
  • Page 85 and 86: 85 Over recent decades the world ha
  • Page 87 and 88: 87 significance of demographic vari
  • Page 89 and 90: 89 ·· relative employment depriva
  • Page 91 and 92: 91 Variable Scale Explanatory or re
  • Page 93 and 94: 93 regardless of the possible impor
  • Page 95 and 96: 95 Table 6 Brexit model with socdif
  • Page 97 and 98: 97 Table 8 Brexit model with attitu
  • Page 99 and 100: 99 Table 10 Brexit model with attit
  • Page 101 and 102: 101 Table 12 Brexit model with atti
  • Page 103 and 104: 103 Table 14 Brexit model with atti
  • Page 105 and 106: 105 Table 16 Brexit model with pref
  • Page 107: 107 Notes 1 D Runciman, ‘A win fo
  • Page 111 and 112: 111 29 Jun 2016, http://bruegel.org
  • Page 113 and 114: 113 53 R Stubager, ‘Education eff
  • Page 115 and 116: 115 71 Ashcroft, ‘How the United
  • Page 117 and 118: 117 84 Goodwin and Heath, ‘Brexit
  • Page 119 and 120: 119 Bell T, ‘The referendum, livi
  • Page 121 and 122: 121 brexit-and-the-left-behind-thes
  • Page 123 and 124: 123 Katwala S, Rutter J and Balling
  • Page 125: 125 Stokes B, ‘Euroskepticism bey
  • Page 128 and 129: Contents Summary Introduction 1 Fea
  • Page 130 and 131: Introduction 2 France Fear exists i
  • Page 132 and 133: 2 France of reasons. It affects how
  • Page 134 and 135: 2 France impetus that originates in
  • Page 136 and 137: 2 France Another illustration of Fr
  • Page 138 and 139: 2 France Figure 2 Responses by surv
  • Page 140 and 141: 2 France Slightly more French peopl
  • Page 142 and 143: 2 France The situation in Poland, f
  • Page 144 and 145: 2 France Figure 6 Responses by surv
  • Page 146 and 147: 2 France Figure 8 Responses by surv
  • Page 148 and 149: 2 France 2 Elections at a time of p
  • Page 150 and 151: 2 France These results are particul
  • Page 152 and 153: 2 France Figure 11 Responses by sur
  • Page 154 and 155: 2 France One of the parties that is
  • Page 156 and 157: 2 France the idea of ‘plain speak
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    2 France The fact that these two is

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    2 France Figure 17 Responses by sur

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    2 France As in the YouGov survey, D

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    2 France Conclusion: the need to pu

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    2 France Notes 1 F Furedi, ‘The p

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    2 France 15 A de Montigny, ‘Selon

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    2 France 31 On this topic, see Y Be

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    2 France urgence-conduit-a-des-abus

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    Vie Publique, ‘Trente ans de lég

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    Contents Summary Introduction Metho

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    3 Germany politicians have difficul

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    3 Germany among the German public s

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    Methodology 3 Germany To further th

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    3 Germany Figure 1 Areas represente

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    3 Germany Taking a closer look at t

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    3 Germany When looking at all the c

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    3 Germany with different demographi

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    3 Germany Figure 7 Fears of respond

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    3 Germany feeling of insecurity ont

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    3 Germany Insight 3: Concerns about

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    3 Germany of the politicians interv

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    3 Germany Figure 11 Fears of respon

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    3 Germany I haven’t heard anyone

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    3 Germany Figure 13 Fears of respon

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    3 Germany issues that are the EU’

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    3 Germany are able to draw on compa

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    Conclusions 3 Germany Using the lat

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    3 Germany concerns and alleviating

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    3 Germany Provide avenues for knowl

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    3 Germany public-elite comparisons

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    3 Germany ·· €1,351-1,660 ··

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    3 Germany ·· Q5. Which of the fol

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    3 Germany a Angela Merkel b The Ger

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    3 Germany 6 T Lochocki, The Unstopp

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    3 Germany European Parliament, Stan

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    Contents Introduction 1 Migration,

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    4 Spain 1 Migration, economic crisi

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    4 Spain During the rapid economic e

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    4 Spain Figure 4 GDP (adjusted for

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    4 Spain Figure 8 Household expendit

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    4 Spain In short, high levels of mi

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    4 Spain of them also illiberal, wer

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    4 Spain Figure 9 The proportion of

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    4 Spain This Europeanism presents i

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    4 Spain Table 3 The views of respon

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    4 Spain The acceptance of globalisa

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    4 Spain Figure 13 The views of resp

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    4 Spain Increased acceptance of dif

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    4 Spain Table 7 The percentage of r

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    4 Spain Figure 15 Views of responde

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    4 Spain Table 9 The extent to which

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    4 Spain Table 10 Respondents’ vie

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    4 Spain are most inclined to vote f

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    4 Spain 3 Electoral and party polit

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    4 Spain The extreme right was disco

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    4 Spain towns, although none of the

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    4 Spain emphasising unity and the l

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    4 Spain cradles of successful natio

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    4 Spain of the population supportin

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    4 Spain Appendix 2: Results of the

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Notes 1 Jose Pablo Martíne

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    4 Spain Material deprivation covers

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    4 Spain 23 European Commission, Sta

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    4 Spain See Centro de Investigacion

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    4 Spain European Commission, ‘Pub

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    4 Spain INE, ‘Padrón municipal

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    4 Spain paper presented at the 12th

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    Contents Summary Introduction 1 Soc

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    5 Poland Introduction - what happen

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    5 Poland the Hungarian political sc

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    5 Poland the Law and Justice party,

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    5 Poland giving the winner an absol

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    5 Poland and to tire out the domest

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    5 Poland 1 Social cohesion and econ

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    5 Poland and an inflow of European

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    5 Poland The second factor is the p

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    5 Poland seems economic indicators

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    5 Poland occupational qualification

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    5 Poland Table 2 Respondents’ ans

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    5 Poland Table 3 Respondents’ vie

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    5 Poland Despite the generally posi

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    5 Poland not the Law and Justice pa

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    5 Poland or immigrants from Arab co

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    5 Poland Post-election developments

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    5 Poland 3 Social conservatism and

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    5 Poland women’s empowerment, LGB

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    5 Poland women’s access to legal

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    5 Poland commentators did not expec

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    5 Poland Conclusions - resilience a

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    5 Poland The rise of authoritarian

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    5 Poland Notes 1 YouGov surveyed ad

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    5 Poland Since then, the near absen

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    5 Poland 24 World Bank, ‘GINI ind

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    5 Poland European Union’, Standar

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    5 Poland migrants-asylum-poland-kac

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    5 Poland 67 In 1993 60 per cent sup

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    5 Poland 82 Fomina and Kucharczyk,

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    5 Poland Boguszewski R, ‘Nastroje

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    5 Poland Faiola A, ‘In Poland, a

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    5 Poland Kucharczyk J and Zbieranek

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    5 Poland Public Opinion Research, 2

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    6 Sweden - Sweden: the immigration

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    375 Introduction In Swedish migrati

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    377 migrants came mainly as family

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    379 Citizens from outside the EU ar

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    381 2018 elections. The Sweden Demo

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    383 Figure 3 The proportion of Swed

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    385 science: national identity is t

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    387 During the refugee crisis of 20

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    389 and immigrants even when suppos

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    391 2 Analysis and results The main

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    393 she suggested that the ‘migra

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    395 emphasised, this crisis came ac

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    397 directed towards Swedishness in

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    399 which leads voters to connect S

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    401 exclusively of people with a ci

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    403 Table 3 confirms the findings i

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    405 Summary and discussion During 2

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    407 rhetoric of the Christian Democ

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    409 6 Migrationsverket, ‘Asylsök

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    411 22 H Oscarsson and A Bergström

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    413 37 P Mouritsen and TV Olsen,

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    415 References ‘Historiskt högt

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    417 Jenkins R, Social Identity, Lon

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    419 Regeringskansliet, ‘Regeringe

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    7 Responding to the politics of fea

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    423 Introduction This project has i

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    425 In responding to the current fe

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    427 in facilitated discussion to es

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    429 2 Reconnect ‘political elites

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    431 background is also central to r

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    433 Boost the accountability of EU

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    435 3 Make the case for openness an

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    437 communities and country’s pla

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    439 1.8 million signatures, predomi

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    441 4 Counter post-truth narratives

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    443 organisation’ 30 - including

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    445 - whether through public policy

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    447 8 C Malmström, ‘Shaping glob

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    449 24 J Haidt, ‘The ethics of gl

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    451 References Arthur J and Kristj

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    453 European Ombudsman, ‘Ombudsma

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    Demos - License to Publish The work

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    This project is supported by The ca

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