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DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

Context and background

Context and background Context and background The current era is one of rapid, and at times bewildering, political and social change, in which there have been significant shifts in public opinion over a short space of time, together with seismic events that have confounded expert predictions. It increasingly feels as if crisis after crisis rattle through the political and media landscape, leaving pre-existing institutions with little time to adapt. Fear is often both a product of and a response to this pace of change, contributing to a growing sense of precariousness and anxiety among European publics, at times exploited by insurgent or even mainstream political figures. There is, therefore, a growing sense of urgency in the need to understand the drivers and symptoms of rapidly shifting tides across our five thematic areas – party politics, policy, society, narrative and individual identity – and build coalitions across disciplinary and political divides to develop effective responses. Below we review the current picture across the five themes, as the first step to getting to grips with the current situation. Party politics While 2016 has been widely viewed as the year in which authoritarian populist politics broke through to the ‘mainstream’, the steady rise of populist parties across Europe can be traced back to at least the European elections of 2009, when the likes of the British National Party, Hungary’s Jobbik, the Austrian Freedom Party and the True Finns made significant electoral inroads. By the 2014 European elections the gains made by populist parities were brought into far sharper relief. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Front National topped the polls, while anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) won the most votes in the UK. There were similar

19 trends in Austria, where the Freedom Party increased its vote share, Germany, where the new party Alternative für Deutschland won its first seats, Italy, with initial success for Grillo’s Five Star Movement, and many other countries. 2 In the years since 2014 successes in European elections have increasingly been replicated in populist gains in national and regional elections. This has been most starkly shown through the victory of the Law and Justice party in the 2015 Polish parliamentary elections. However, there have also been significant gains for other populist parties, across Europe. In Germany, for example the anti-European Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) received double-digit shares of the vote in all the regional elections in March 2016, before surging to 21 per cent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September 2016, finishing above the Christian Democratic Union in Angela Merkel’s home state. In Austria, the 2016 presidential election between the Green Party’s Alexander Van der Bellen and the far-right Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer was notable. First, it was the first time since the Second World War that an Austrian president had not been backed by either of the two establishment parties. Second, while there was widespread international relief that Van der Bellen claimed victory in the re-run of the election in December, this still left 46 per cent of the vote going to the far-right candidate. In the UK, while UKIP was restricted to just one seat in the 2015 general election thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system, the party managed to gain nearly 13 per cent of the popular vote. It is worth noting that despite often being referred to as ‘far right’, many of these groups are not easily placed according to traditional political categories, often combining elements of left-wing and right-wing philosophy, mixed with populist language and rhetoric. For example, under Marine Le Pen, the Front National has campaigned from a strongly left-wing position on welfare, while taking a far-right position on immigration. In some ways, this leaves these parties with a greater capacity to capitalise on the changing contours of national political debates. Recent referendums have produced voting patterns which cut across traditional party lines, and this highlights the waning of the left–right paradigm as the

  • Page 1: “ Mapping and responding to the r
  • Page 4 and 5: First published in 2017 © Demos. S
  • Page 7: Open access. Some rights reserved.
  • Page 11 and 12: 11 Foreword Nothing to Fear but Fea
  • Page 13 and 14: 13 FORES in Sweden, the Institute o
  • Page 15 and 16: 15 rising tide that cuts across tra
  • Page 17: 17 diversity), and political leader
  • Page 21 and 22: 21 refugees of ‘bringing in all k
  • Page 23 and 24: 23 themselves embodying the fear of
  • Page 25 and 26: 25 ‘wrong-headed doctrine’, and
  • Page 27 and 28: 27 While the Central European case
  • Page 29 and 30: 29 Europe, but the politics of fear
  • Page 31 and 32: 31 of European identity - attachmen
  • Page 33 and 34: 33 Euroscepticism In every country,
  • Page 35 and 36: 35 Figure 2 Views of respondents in
  • Page 37 and 38: 37 Political trust We also asked ou
  • Page 39 and 40: 39 significantly less support in th
  • Page 41 and 42: 41 - internationally and intranatio
  • Page 43 and 44: 43 els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expendit
  • Page 45 and 46: 45 25 R Wodak and S Boukala, ‘Eur
  • Page 47 and 48: 47 References ‘Denmark suspends q
  • Page 49 and 50: 49 European Commission, Standard Eu
  • Page 51 and 52: 1 Great Britain - ‘It’s who you
  • Page 53 and 54: 53 1 What we already know about Bre
  • Page 55 and 56: 55 compared with 59 per cent of tho
  • Page 57 and 58: 57 This leads the authors to conclu
  • Page 59 and 60: 59 think it is vital to let Europea
  • Page 61 and 62: 61 between areas hit hardest by aus
  • Page 63 and 64: 63 wealthy towns in the south of En
  • Page 65 and 66: 65 Similarly strong predictive powe
  • Page 67 and 68: 67 Anti-immigrant sentiment In addi
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    69 External and campaign factors Th

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    71 One caveat of this research is t

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    73 vote (and indeed on populism in

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    75 As part of this project, we comm

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    77 Table 1 Predicted probability of

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    79 neighbourhood levels of deprivat

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    81 Social networks Most important f

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    83 Table 3 Predicted probability of

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    85 Over recent decades the world ha

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    87 significance of demographic vari

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    89 ·· relative employment depriva

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    91 Variable Scale Explanatory or re

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    93 regardless of the possible impor

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    95 Table 6 Brexit model with socdif

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    97 Table 8 Brexit model with attitu

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    99 Table 10 Brexit model with attit

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    101 Table 12 Brexit model with atti

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    103 Table 14 Brexit model with atti

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    105 Table 16 Brexit model with pref

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    107 Notes 1 D Runciman, ‘A win fo

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    109 org/2016/07/brexit-vote-boosts-

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    111 29 Jun 2016, http://bruegel.org

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    113 53 R Stubager, ‘Education eff

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    115 71 Ashcroft, ‘How the United

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    117 84 Goodwin and Heath, ‘Brexit

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    119 Bell T, ‘The referendum, livi

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    121 brexit-and-the-left-behind-thes

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    123 Katwala S, Rutter J and Balling

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    125 Stokes B, ‘Euroskepticism bey

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    Contents Summary Introduction 1 Fea

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    Introduction 2 France Fear exists i

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    2 France of reasons. It affects how

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    2 France impetus that originates in

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    2 France Another illustration of Fr

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    2 France Figure 2 Responses by surv

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    2 France Slightly more French peopl

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    2 France The situation in Poland, f

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    2 France Figure 6 Responses by surv

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    2 France Figure 8 Responses by surv

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    2 France 2 Elections at a time of p

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    2 France These results are particul

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    2 France Figure 11 Responses by sur

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    2 France One of the parties that is

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    2 France the idea of ‘plain speak

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    2 France The fact that these two is

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    2 France Figure 17 Responses by sur

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    2 France As in the YouGov survey, D

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    2 France Conclusion: the need to pu

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    2 France Notes 1 F Furedi, ‘The p

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    2 France 15 A de Montigny, ‘Selon

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    2 France 31 On this topic, see Y Be

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    2 France urgence-conduit-a-des-abus

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    Vie Publique, ‘Trente ans de lég

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    Contents Summary Introduction Metho

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    3 Germany politicians have difficul

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    3 Germany among the German public s

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    Methodology 3 Germany To further th

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    3 Germany Figure 1 Areas represente

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    3 Germany Taking a closer look at t

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    3 Germany When looking at all the c

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    3 Germany with different demographi

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    3 Germany Figure 7 Fears of respond

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    3 Germany feeling of insecurity ont

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    3 Germany Insight 3: Concerns about

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    3 Germany of the politicians interv

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    3 Germany Figure 11 Fears of respon

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    3 Germany I haven’t heard anyone

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    3 Germany Figure 13 Fears of respon

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    3 Germany issues that are the EU’

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    3 Germany are able to draw on compa

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    Conclusions 3 Germany Using the lat

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    3 Germany concerns and alleviating

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    3 Germany Provide avenues for knowl

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    3 Germany public-elite comparisons

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    3 Germany ·· €1,351-1,660 ··

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    3 Germany ·· Q5. Which of the fol

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    3 Germany a Angela Merkel b The Ger

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    3 Germany 6 T Lochocki, The Unstopp

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    3 Germany European Parliament, Stan

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    Contents Introduction 1 Migration,

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    4 Spain 1 Migration, economic crisi

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    4 Spain During the rapid economic e

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    4 Spain Figure 4 GDP (adjusted for

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    4 Spain Figure 8 Household expendit

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    4 Spain In short, high levels of mi

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    4 Spain of them also illiberal, wer

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    4 Spain Figure 9 The proportion of

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    4 Spain This Europeanism presents i

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    4 Spain Table 3 The views of respon

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    4 Spain The acceptance of globalisa

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    4 Spain Figure 13 The views of resp

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    4 Spain Increased acceptance of dif

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    4 Spain Table 7 The percentage of r

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    4 Spain Figure 15 Views of responde

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    4 Spain Table 9 The extent to which

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    4 Spain Table 10 Respondents’ vie

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    4 Spain are most inclined to vote f

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    4 Spain 3 Electoral and party polit

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    4 Spain The extreme right was disco

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    4 Spain towns, although none of the

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    4 Spain emphasising unity and the l

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    4 Spain cradles of successful natio

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    4 Spain of the population supportin

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    4 Spain Appendix 2: Results of the

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Notes 1 Jose Pablo Martíne

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    4 Spain Material deprivation covers

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    4 Spain 23 European Commission, Sta

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    4 Spain See Centro de Investigacion

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    4 Spain European Commission, ‘Pub

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    4 Spain INE, ‘Padrón municipal

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    4 Spain paper presented at the 12th

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    Contents Summary Introduction 1 Soc

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    5 Poland Introduction - what happen

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    5 Poland the Hungarian political sc

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    5 Poland the Law and Justice party,

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    5 Poland giving the winner an absol

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    5 Poland and to tire out the domest

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    5 Poland 1 Social cohesion and econ

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    5 Poland and an inflow of European

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    5 Poland The second factor is the p

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    5 Poland seems economic indicators

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    5 Poland occupational qualification

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    5 Poland Table 2 Respondents’ ans

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    5 Poland Table 3 Respondents’ vie

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    5 Poland Despite the generally posi

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    5 Poland not the Law and Justice pa

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    5 Poland or immigrants from Arab co

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    5 Poland Post-election developments

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    5 Poland 3 Social conservatism and

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    5 Poland women’s empowerment, LGB

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    5 Poland women’s access to legal

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    5 Poland commentators did not expec

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    5 Poland Conclusions - resilience a

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    5 Poland The rise of authoritarian

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    5 Poland Notes 1 YouGov surveyed ad

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    5 Poland Since then, the near absen

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    5 Poland 24 World Bank, ‘GINI ind

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    5 Poland European Union’, Standar

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    5 Poland migrants-asylum-poland-kac

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    5 Poland 67 In 1993 60 per cent sup

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    5 Poland 82 Fomina and Kucharczyk,

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    5 Poland Boguszewski R, ‘Nastroje

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    5 Poland Faiola A, ‘In Poland, a

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    5 Poland Kucharczyk J and Zbieranek

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    5 Poland Public Opinion Research, 2

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    6 Sweden - Sweden: the immigration

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    375 Introduction In Swedish migrati

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    377 migrants came mainly as family

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    379 Citizens from outside the EU ar

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    381 2018 elections. The Sweden Demo

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    383 Figure 3 The proportion of Swed

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    385 science: national identity is t

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    387 During the refugee crisis of 20

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    389 and immigrants even when suppos

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    391 2 Analysis and results The main

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    393 she suggested that the ‘migra

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    395 emphasised, this crisis came ac

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    397 directed towards Swedishness in

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    399 which leads voters to connect S

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    401 exclusively of people with a ci

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    403 Table 3 confirms the findings i

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    405 Summary and discussion During 2

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    407 rhetoric of the Christian Democ

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    409 6 Migrationsverket, ‘Asylsök

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    411 22 H Oscarsson and A Bergström

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    413 37 P Mouritsen and TV Olsen,

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    415 References ‘Historiskt högt

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    417 Jenkins R, Social Identity, Lon

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    419 Regeringskansliet, ‘Regeringe

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    7 Responding to the politics of fea

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    423 Introduction This project has i

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    425 In responding to the current fe

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    427 in facilitated discussion to es

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    429 2 Reconnect ‘political elites

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    431 background is also central to r

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    433 Boost the accountability of EU

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    435 3 Make the case for openness an

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    437 communities and country’s pla

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    439 1.8 million signatures, predomi

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    441 4 Counter post-truth narratives

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    443 organisation’ 30 - including

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    445 - whether through public policy

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    447 8 C Malmström, ‘Shaping glob

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    449 24 J Haidt, ‘The ethics of gl

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    451 References Arthur J and Kristj

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    453 European Ombudsman, ‘Ombudsma

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    Demos - License to Publish The work

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    This project is supported by The ca

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