DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

Context and background

Context and background Context and background The current era is one of rapid, and at times bewildering, political and social change, in which there have been significant shifts in public opinion over a short space of time, together with seismic events that have confounded expert predictions. It increasingly feels as if crisis after crisis rattle through the political and media landscape, leaving pre-existing institutions with little time to adapt. Fear is often both a product of and a response to this pace of change, contributing to a growing sense of precariousness and anxiety among European publics, at times exploited by insurgent or even mainstream political figures. There is, therefore, a growing sense of urgency in the need to understand the drivers and symptoms of rapidly shifting tides across our five thematic areas – party politics, policy, society, narrative and individual identity – and build coalitions across disciplinary and political divides to develop effective responses. Below we review the current picture across the five themes, as the first step to getting to grips with the current situation. Party politics While 2016 has been widely viewed as the year in which authoritarian populist politics broke through to the ‘mainstream’, the steady rise of populist parties across Europe can be traced back to at least the European elections of 2009, when the likes of the British National Party, Hungary’s Jobbik, the Austrian Freedom Party and the True Finns made significant electoral inroads. By the 2014 European elections the gains made by populist parities were brought into far sharper relief. In France, Marine Le Pen’s Front National topped the polls, while anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) won the most votes in the UK. There were similar

19 trends in Austria, where the Freedom Party increased its vote share, Germany, where the new party Alternative für Deutschland won its first seats, Italy, with initial success for Grillo’s Five Star Movement, and many other countries. 2 In the years since 2014 successes in European elections have increasingly been replicated in populist gains in national and regional elections. This has been most starkly shown through the victory of the Law and Justice party in the 2015 Polish parliamentary elections. However, there have also been significant gains for other populist parties, across Europe. In Germany, for example the anti-European Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) received double-digit shares of the vote in all the regional elections in March 2016, before surging to 21 per cent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September 2016, finishing above the Christian Democratic Union in Angela Merkel’s home state. In Austria, the 2016 presidential election between the Green Party’s Alexander Van der Bellen and the far-right Freedom Party’s Norbert Hofer was notable. First, it was the first time since the Second World War that an Austrian president had not been backed by either of the two establishment parties. Second, while there was widespread international relief that Van der Bellen claimed victory in the re-run of the election in December, this still left 46 per cent of the vote going to the far-right candidate. In the UK, while UKIP was restricted to just one seat in the 2015 general election thanks to the first-past-the-post electoral system, the party managed to gain nearly 13 per cent of the popular vote. It is worth noting that despite often being referred to as ‘far right’, many of these groups are not easily placed according to traditional political categories, often combining elements of left-wing and right-wing philosophy, mixed with populist language and rhetoric. For example, under Marine Le Pen, the Front National has campaigned from a strongly left-wing position on welfare, while taking a far-right position on immigration. In some ways, this leaves these parties with a greater capacity to capitalise on the changing contours of national political debates. Recent referendums have produced voting patterns which cut across traditional party lines, and this highlights the waning of the left–right paradigm as the