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DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

DEMJ5104_nothing_to_fear_report_140217_WEBv1

1 Great Britain Table 7

1 Great Britain Table 7 Brexit model with socdiftown (social network – different town or city) leave Coef. Robust Std. Err. z P>¦ z ¦ (95% Conf. Interval) age3 25–34 1.322133 0.6058235 2.18 0.029 0.1347413 2.509526 35–44 1.763448 0.6020656 2.93 0.003 0.5834216 2.943475 45–54 1.988278 0.6112011 3.25 0.001 0.7903457 3.18621 55–64 1.950939 0.5880067 3.32 0.001 0.7984673 3.103411 65+ 1.885311 0.5850678 3.22 0.001 0.7385991 3.032023 education2 GCSEs -1.210558 0.45319 -2.67 0.008 -2.098794 -0.3223217 A-Levels or higher, below degree -1.575364 0.4486518 -3.51 0 -2.454706 -0.6960232 degree -2.501104 0.4345606 -5.76 0 -3.352827 -1.649381 1.white 1.286912 0.6090524 2.11 0.035 0.0931912 2.480633 1.ruralla 0.6705575 0.2060934 3.25 0.001 0.2666219 1.074493 socdifcountry yes -0.6611432 0.3869411 -1.71 0.088 -1.419534 0.0972474 religion1 Christian 0.4869297 0.197652 2.46 0.014 0.0995389 0.8743206 other religion 0.3584251 0.4815733 0.74 0.457 -0.5854412 1.302291 male male -0.581899 0.2843425 -2.05 0.041 -1.1392 -0.024598 incomenom1 under £1,520pm -0.1261168 0.5478195 -0.23 0.818 -1.199823 0.9475896 over £3,160 -3.424705 1.102689 -3.11 0.002 -5.585937 -1.263474 male#incomenom1 male#under £1,520pm 0.5583373 0.3956099 1.41 0.158 -0.2170438 1.333719 male#over £3,160 1.356807 0.583554 2.33 0.02 0.2130626 2.500552 incomenom1#socdifcountry under £1,520pm#yes -0.4316664 0.5367725 -0.8 0.421 -1.483721 0.6203884 over £3,160#yes 2.124158 1.036838 2.05 0.04 0.0919936 4.156323 _cons -0.03869513 0.9625025 -0.4 0.688 -2.273421 1.499519 Logistic Regression Number of obs = 721 Wald chi2(20) = 141.44 Prob > chi2 = 0 Log pseudolikelihood = -368.60842 Pseudo R2 = 0.2013

97 Table 8 Brexit model with attitudes to same-sex relationships leave Coef. Robust Std. Err. z P>¦ z ¦ (95% Conf. Interval) age3 25–34 1.271662 0.5488237 2.32 0.021 0.195987 2.347336 35–44 1.536489 0.5598816 2.74 0.006 0.4391411 2.633837 45–54 1.684395 0.557221 3.02 0.003 0.5922618 2.776528 55–64 1.712349 0.5335943 3.21 0.001 0.6665231 2.758175 65+ 1.478559 0.545666 2.71 0.007 0.4092684 2.54785 education1 -0.5251782 0.078313 -6.71 0 -0.6786688 -0.3716877 1.white 1.516283 0.6348928 2.39 0.017 religion1 Christian 0.537462 0.2234242 2.03 0.042 0.0158429 0.8916495 other religion 0.4015126 0.5139388 0.78 0.435 -0.605789 1.408814 1.ruralla 0.5814139 0.2161413 2.69 0.007 0.1577847 1.005043 incomenom1 under £1,520pm -0.6281017 0.3706145 -1.69 0.09 -1.354493 0.0982894 over £3,160 -2.503735 0.5647177 -4.43 0 -3.610562 -1.396909 male male -0.8004649 0.3064866 -2.61 0.009 -1.401168 -0.1997622 socdifcountry yes -1.02904 0.293292 -3.44 0.001 -1.615714 -0.4423656 incomenom1#socdifcountry under £1,520pm#yes 0.008873 0.4285642 0.02 0.983 -0.8310973 0.8488433 over £3,160#yes 1.699351 0.580728 2.93 0.003 0.5611456 2.837557 incomenom1#male under £1,520pm#male 0.7484264 0.423635 1.77 0.077 -0.0813509 1.578204 over £3,160#male 1.531427 0.6029756 2.54 0.011 0.3496165 2.713238 samsex1 better -0.8372346 0.2212489 -3.78 0 -1.270874 -0.4035948 _cons -0.1982647 0.825019 -0.24 0.81 -1.815272 1.418743 Logistic Regression Number of obs = 690 Wald chi2(20) = 175.37 Prob > chi2 = 0 Log pseudolikelihood = -336.63582 Pseudo R2 = 0.2415

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    “ Mapping and responding to the r

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    First published in 2017 © Demos. S

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    Open access. Some rights reserved.

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    11 Foreword Nothing to Fear but Fea

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    13 FORES in Sweden, the Institute o

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    15 rising tide that cuts across tra

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    17 diversity), and political leader

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    19 trends in Austria, where the Fre

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    21 refugees of ‘bringing in all k

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    23 themselves embodying the fear of

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    25 ‘wrong-headed doctrine’, and

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    27 While the Central European case

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    29 Europe, but the politics of fear

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    31 of European identity - attachmen

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    33 Euroscepticism In every country,

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    35 Figure 2 Views of respondents in

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    37 Political trust We also asked ou

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    39 significantly less support in th

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    41 - internationally and intranatio

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    43 els/soc/OECD2014-Social-Expendit

  • Page 45 and 46: 45 25 R Wodak and S Boukala, ‘Eur
  • Page 47 and 48: 47 References ‘Denmark suspends q
  • Page 49 and 50: 49 European Commission, Standard Eu
  • Page 51 and 52: 1 Great Britain - ‘It’s who you
  • Page 53 and 54: 53 1 What we already know about Bre
  • Page 55 and 56: 55 compared with 59 per cent of tho
  • Page 57 and 58: 57 This leads the authors to conclu
  • Page 59 and 60: 59 think it is vital to let Europea
  • Page 61 and 62: 61 between areas hit hardest by aus
  • Page 63 and 64: 63 wealthy towns in the south of En
  • Page 65 and 66: 65 Similarly strong predictive powe
  • Page 67 and 68: 67 Anti-immigrant sentiment In addi
  • Page 69 and 70: 69 External and campaign factors Th
  • Page 71 and 72: 71 One caveat of this research is t
  • Page 73 and 74: 73 vote (and indeed on populism in
  • Page 75 and 76: 75 As part of this project, we comm
  • Page 77 and 78: 77 Table 1 Predicted probability of
  • Page 79 and 80: 79 neighbourhood levels of deprivat
  • Page 81 and 82: 81 Social networks Most important f
  • Page 83 and 84: 83 Table 3 Predicted probability of
  • Page 85 and 86: 85 Over recent decades the world ha
  • Page 87 and 88: 87 significance of demographic vari
  • Page 89 and 90: 89 ·· relative employment depriva
  • Page 91 and 92: 91 Variable Scale Explanatory or re
  • Page 93 and 94: 93 regardless of the possible impor
  • Page 95: 95 Table 6 Brexit model with socdif
  • Page 99 and 100: 99 Table 10 Brexit model with attit
  • Page 101 and 102: 101 Table 12 Brexit model with atti
  • Page 103 and 104: 103 Table 14 Brexit model with atti
  • Page 105 and 106: 105 Table 16 Brexit model with pref
  • Page 107 and 108: 107 Notes 1 D Runciman, ‘A win fo
  • Page 109 and 110: 109 org/2016/07/brexit-vote-boosts-
  • Page 111 and 112: 111 29 Jun 2016, http://bruegel.org
  • Page 113 and 114: 113 53 R Stubager, ‘Education eff
  • Page 115 and 116: 115 71 Ashcroft, ‘How the United
  • Page 117 and 118: 117 84 Goodwin and Heath, ‘Brexit
  • Page 119 and 120: 119 Bell T, ‘The referendum, livi
  • Page 121 and 122: 121 brexit-and-the-left-behind-thes
  • Page 123 and 124: 123 Katwala S, Rutter J and Balling
  • Page 125: 125 Stokes B, ‘Euroskepticism bey
  • Page 128 and 129: Contents Summary Introduction 1 Fea
  • Page 130 and 131: Introduction 2 France Fear exists i
  • Page 132 and 133: 2 France of reasons. It affects how
  • Page 134 and 135: 2 France impetus that originates in
  • Page 136 and 137: 2 France Another illustration of Fr
  • Page 138 and 139: 2 France Figure 2 Responses by surv
  • Page 140 and 141: 2 France Slightly more French peopl
  • Page 142 and 143: 2 France The situation in Poland, f
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    2 France Figure 8 Responses by surv

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    2 France 2 Elections at a time of p

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    2 France These results are particul

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    2 France Figure 11 Responses by sur

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    2 France One of the parties that is

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    2 France the idea of ‘plain speak

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    2 France The fact that these two is

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    2 France Figure 17 Responses by sur

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    2 France As in the YouGov survey, D

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    2 France Conclusion: the need to pu

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    2 France Notes 1 F Furedi, ‘The p

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    2 France 15 A de Montigny, ‘Selon

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    2 France 31 On this topic, see Y Be

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    2 France urgence-conduit-a-des-abus

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    Vie Publique, ‘Trente ans de lég

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    Contents Summary Introduction Metho

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    3 Germany politicians have difficul

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    3 Germany among the German public s

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    Methodology 3 Germany To further th

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    3 Germany Figure 1 Areas represente

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    3 Germany Taking a closer look at t

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    3 Germany When looking at all the c

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    3 Germany with different demographi

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    3 Germany Figure 7 Fears of respond

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    3 Germany feeling of insecurity ont

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    3 Germany Insight 3: Concerns about

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    3 Germany of the politicians interv

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    3 Germany Figure 11 Fears of respon

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    3 Germany I haven’t heard anyone

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    3 Germany Figure 13 Fears of respon

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    3 Germany issues that are the EU’

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    3 Germany are able to draw on compa

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    Conclusions 3 Germany Using the lat

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    3 Germany concerns and alleviating

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    3 Germany Provide avenues for knowl

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    3 Germany public-elite comparisons

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    3 Germany ·· €1,351-1,660 ··

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    3 Germany ·· Q5. Which of the fol

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    3 Germany a Angela Merkel b The Ger

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    3 Germany 6 T Lochocki, The Unstopp

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    3 Germany European Parliament, Stan

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    Contents Introduction 1 Migration,

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    4 Spain 1 Migration, economic crisi

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    4 Spain During the rapid economic e

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    4 Spain Figure 4 GDP (adjusted for

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    4 Spain Figure 8 Household expendit

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    4 Spain In short, high levels of mi

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    4 Spain of them also illiberal, wer

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    4 Spain Figure 9 The proportion of

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    4 Spain This Europeanism presents i

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    4 Spain Table 3 The views of respon

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    4 Spain The acceptance of globalisa

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    4 Spain Figure 13 The views of resp

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    4 Spain Increased acceptance of dif

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    4 Spain Table 7 The percentage of r

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    4 Spain Figure 15 Views of responde

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    4 Spain Table 9 The extent to which

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    4 Spain Table 10 Respondents’ vie

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    4 Spain are most inclined to vote f

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    4 Spain 3 Electoral and party polit

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    4 Spain The extreme right was disco

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    4 Spain towns, although none of the

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    4 Spain emphasising unity and the l

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    4 Spain cradles of successful natio

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    4 Spain of the population supportin

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    4 Spain Appendix 2: Results of the

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Total (%) Partido Popular (

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    4 Spain Notes 1 Jose Pablo Martíne

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    4 Spain Material deprivation covers

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    4 Spain 23 European Commission, Sta

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    4 Spain See Centro de Investigacion

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    4 Spain European Commission, ‘Pub

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    4 Spain INE, ‘Padrón municipal

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    4 Spain paper presented at the 12th

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    Contents Summary Introduction 1 Soc

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    5 Poland Introduction - what happen

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    5 Poland the Hungarian political sc

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    5 Poland the Law and Justice party,

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    5 Poland giving the winner an absol

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    5 Poland and to tire out the domest

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    5 Poland 1 Social cohesion and econ

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    5 Poland and an inflow of European

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    5 Poland The second factor is the p

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    5 Poland seems economic indicators

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    5 Poland occupational qualification

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    5 Poland Table 2 Respondents’ ans

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    5 Poland Table 3 Respondents’ vie

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    5 Poland Despite the generally posi

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    5 Poland not the Law and Justice pa

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    5 Poland or immigrants from Arab co

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    5 Poland Post-election developments

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    5 Poland 3 Social conservatism and

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    5 Poland women’s empowerment, LGB

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    5 Poland women’s access to legal

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    5 Poland commentators did not expec

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    5 Poland Conclusions - resilience a

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    5 Poland The rise of authoritarian

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    5 Poland Notes 1 YouGov surveyed ad

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    5 Poland Since then, the near absen

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    5 Poland 24 World Bank, ‘GINI ind

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    5 Poland European Union’, Standar

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    5 Poland migrants-asylum-poland-kac

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    5 Poland 67 In 1993 60 per cent sup

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    5 Poland 82 Fomina and Kucharczyk,

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    5 Poland Boguszewski R, ‘Nastroje

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    5 Poland Faiola A, ‘In Poland, a

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    5 Poland Kucharczyk J and Zbieranek

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    5 Poland Public Opinion Research, 2

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    6 Sweden - Sweden: the immigration

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    375 Introduction In Swedish migrati

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    377 migrants came mainly as family

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    379 Citizens from outside the EU ar

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    381 2018 elections. The Sweden Demo

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    383 Figure 3 The proportion of Swed

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    385 science: national identity is t

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    387 During the refugee crisis of 20

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    389 and immigrants even when suppos

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    391 2 Analysis and results The main

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    393 she suggested that the ‘migra

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    395 emphasised, this crisis came ac

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    397 directed towards Swedishness in

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    399 which leads voters to connect S

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    401 exclusively of people with a ci

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    403 Table 3 confirms the findings i

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    405 Summary and discussion During 2

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    407 rhetoric of the Christian Democ

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    409 6 Migrationsverket, ‘Asylsök

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    411 22 H Oscarsson and A Bergström

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    413 37 P Mouritsen and TV Olsen,

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    415 References ‘Historiskt högt

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    417 Jenkins R, Social Identity, Lon

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    419 Regeringskansliet, ‘Regeringe

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    7 Responding to the politics of fea

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    423 Introduction This project has i

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    425 In responding to the current fe

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    427 in facilitated discussion to es

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    429 2 Reconnect ‘political elites

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    431 background is also central to r

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    433 Boost the accountability of EU

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    435 3 Make the case for openness an

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    437 communities and country’s pla

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    439 1.8 million signatures, predomi

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    441 4 Counter post-truth narratives

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    443 organisation’ 30 - including

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    445 - whether through public policy

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    447 8 C Malmström, ‘Shaping glob

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    449 24 J Haidt, ‘The ethics of gl

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    451 References Arthur J and Kristj

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    453 European Ombudsman, ‘Ombudsma

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    Demos - License to Publish The work

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    This project is supported by The ca

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