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1 year ago

POLITICAL

PCR-January-February-2017

POLITICAL CLIMATE REPORT CONTACT INFORMATION info@cefeidas.com www.cefeidas.com +54 (11) 5238 0991 (ARG) +1 (646) 233 3204 (USA) Suipacha 1322 - PB “A” Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (C1011ACD) República Argentina POLITICAL & REGULATORY RISKS Juan Cruz Díaz jcdiaz@cefeidas.com Heidi Lough hlough@cefeidas.com Madeleine Elder melder@cefeidas.com Megan Cook mcook@cefeidas.com Tattie Knutson tknutson@cefeidas.com Political Climate Report - ARGENTINA February 7, 2017 The government made a dynamic start to the year, defining a clear set of goals for 2017 and making changes to key posts. It is betting that high public works spending will generate an economic recovery and increase its electoral chances in the upcoming midterms, although inflation and securing foreign investment will continue to be major challenges. Moreover, as the elections approach, opposition actors will begin to more actively resist the government’s agenda, hinted at in recent weeks by a deterioration in relations with powerful labor unions. When Congress resumes sessions, this will likely be reflected in increased reluctance to back government-led legislation. However, the government’s position is stable enough to ensure that even a difficult year would not seriously threaten governability. Prat-Gay departs in shake-up ahead of New Year The resignation of Treasury and Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay a day after Christmas was the first major change to President Mauricio Macri’s cabinet since he took office a little more than a year ago. Cabinet Chief Marcos Peña said Macri requested Prat-Gay’s resignation due to disagreements about management style and structure of the economic policy team, and said the minister “never felt comfortable with the method of organization of the government.” However, rumors had circulated for months that Prat-Gay was being excluded from decision-making in the government and would potentially leave. These were reignited after the income-tax setback in December (see here). Additionally, it is likely Prat-Gay’s independent political aspirations did not sit well with Macri. Prat-Gay departed the government with his reputation intact, having effectively spearheaded the majority of the government’s economic reforms and “return to the world”, including lifting currency controls and reaching a settlement with holdout creditors. He concluded his appointment with the announcement of a successful first phase of the government’s tax amnesty program (see below). Following Prat-Gay’s departure, the government announced that the Finance Ministry had been split into two portfolios. Nicolas Dujovne, an economist and former TV show co-host who had previously served as an economic policy advisor to PRO’s think-tank, was named Treasury IN THIS ISSUE Page 2 Other changes to key government posts Successful tax amnesty draws billions out of hiding Page 3 Dujovne’s debut Ruling by decree Page 4 Challenges in the year ahead Will Trump’s policies sour Argentine-US ties? Page 5 Collective bargaining season looms in key test for gov’t Page 6 CGT cuts ties in major blow for gov’t Implications Page 7 Election Watch Find more about our services Follow @CefeidasGroup

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